Four Letters Re: More Predictions for 2009, by Roger Wiegand

Mr. Rawles-
In response to “More predictions for 2009”, reader Jeff K writes, “There has never, ever been hyperinflation with deflating real estate prices.”. This is simply false, and a surprisingly common misperception. Zimbabwe is hardly a ‘red hot’ market for residential (or commercial) real estate, yet that country is an example of extreme hyperinflation. When Turkey went through its period of massive inflation it too suffered declining real estate values. South America, plagued with inflation during much of the past century was also a black hole for real estate investment. Ditto for [much of] Africa. Weimar Germany, a famous example of hyperinflation in a modern, western state was, similarly, anything but an appreciating property market.

What one may observe during a hyperinflationary event is the dramatically increasing cost of assets denominated in the hyperinflating currency. The real value of the domestic assets (such as real estate), however, is not increasing but rather decreasing as assets are constantly being revalued in terms of the inflating currency’s loss of value. This loss, counterintuitively, manifests as a “gain” in the form of more zeros on the notes. Similarly, real estate deflates in periods of hyperinflation even as its price “rises”. This is why super- or hyperinflation fails to attract real estate investors in states suffering such economic mismanagement. – Steven L

 

Dear J.R.,
A recent article from Bloomberg “Attali Warns of a’ Worldwide Weimar’ as Governments Print Money” will explain to your readers of how inflation and even hyperinflation can develop from a deflationary collapse.

As shortages of goods/supplies/services begin happening after manufacturing, transportation and supply systems break down in deflation; and with the abnormally increased money supply suddenly thrust into our economy working it’s out into the broader economy- the conditions for inflation begin. – M.M.

Hello Jim,
With regard to Jeff K.’s reply, calling Roger Wiegand a “huckster”, I’d like to point out some issues I have with his claims. Wiegand did correctly call the crash of the US Equity Markets, as Jeff states, but I could not readily locate anything about Wiegand being wrong on hyperinflation, since he isn’t calling for it until late 2009. As for a decoupling, Wiegand, again to the best of my knowledge, has spoken only (or at least, primarily) of a decoupling of gold from the Dow. No other decoupling mentioned. Foreign equities? Show me where Wiegand has suffered a “big flop” here. Same with commodities, where he continues to support gold, which is a long-term position and one with which I wholeheartedly concur as having huge upside potential, even more so for silver. And is Jeff K. investing in the S & P? He’s a braver soul than me, since I wouldn’t touch the S & P with a
26 1/2 ft. pole, nor any other Dollar-denominated asset.

Jeff K. says “FYI, there has never, ever been hyperinflation with deflating real estate prices. There has never, ever been hyperinflation when one’s debt is denominated in their own currency” Again, Wiegand hasn’t called for price hyperinflation until later and I think perhaps Wiegand’s timing could be off, but only the timing, not the inevitable event, since there is no example in recorded human history of a continually successful fiat currency, as they all eventually end, some catastrophically. Monetary supply increases are [presently] in full swing.

How did Jeff K. determine that Rodgers, Schiff and Wiegand have been wrong for thirty years? How can anyone be wrong for thirty years and maintain a growing number of satisfied clients? (Sure, some got burned, no one is perfect).Is he basing this on the fact that hyperinflation hasn’t arrived yet? While it may not be hyper, is a 98% loss in the purchasing power of the Dollar and Wiegand’s claim that it will get much worse, not enough to satisfy Jeff? Congressman Ron Paul, probably the most educated Congressman on the economy, with several related books written on the subject, also claims that inflation is all but guaranteed in our future and I cannot rationally consider Paul a “huckster”. The [same] amount of money that the Fed created from 1913 to Sept. 2008 has been created in the last 16 weeks. This is off-the-hook, unprecedented (at least in the US) monetary inflation
and will potentially have a devastating effect on price inflation within 1-2 years’ time. Worse, there are no plans to slow down and, in fact, the Fed continues to smoke the bearings off the presses like there’s no tomorrow. (And there may not be, for the Dollar!).

The bottom line and the lesson I feel we should take away from these so-called “hucksters” is that government intervention in the markets is the root of almost all our economic woes. Inflation is real and growing, regardless of timing, and is likely to get much worse. (The exact call on dates means very little to me) and that bickering over these details of who is wrong and who is right is absurdly pointless in light of what is unfolding. Understanding the degree of manipulation, the vulnerability of our JIT infrastructure, the fact that we import most of our food, fuel and goods…it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize the potential for a very dangerous situation to unfold unnervingly quickly and for which a staggering number are, sadly, completely unprepared, thanks to an ignorant / complicit mainstream media and a breathtakingly corrupt Fractional Reserve Banking System.

Additional note: I contacted Euro Pacific Capital in the wake of the related Shedlock article and received the following reply on Monday, January 26, 2009:

“Thanks for your e-mail. Yes we are aware of the Shedlock article, and we are disappointed that he would choose to market his firm by bashing ours. On many
levels his critique is distortive and unfair. We will address this in upcoming podcasts.
Thanks,

Andrew Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.”

Lastly, who does Jeff K. suggest we should entrust with economic insight? Bernanke? Geithner? If he says Larry Kudlow, my opinion of his observations will have been thoroughly confirmed. Some people will stand square in the tracks and argue over a loose railroad spike, even as the speeding train bears down on them. Sincerely and God Bless, – H.H.

 

Hi Jim,
Jeff K. slams Jim Rodgers, Peter Schiff, and Roger Wiegand in error as he does not appreciate the long term and conservative (read safe) old fashioned investment strategies, strategies safe enough for “widows and orphan” as they say. One should keep their eyes on the big picture, the macro economics and think in terms of years, and not in terms of a day trader and more nimble risk taking ‘investors’ who can make money in the short term and yet loose in the end. Few gamblers always call it right and most eventually loose. One cannot compare these two very different classes of investing on the success or failure of a chosen year or two.

This appears be the greatest financial meltdown in history, and as you say, we are in “terra incognita”. The fundamentals continue to justify a conservative approach and playing the macro trends while ignoring the market noise. While Schiff did missed this nasty deflationary phase, he may yet prove to be a winner and Rodgers always mentions that he has the worst timing. Clearly they have gotten the big picture right, it is now a matter of whether it becomes be a deflationary scenario, some level of high inflation or the worst, hyper inflationary. IMHO, hyper inflation is likely. Unfortunately I can’t speak about Wiegand. Fortunately I believe I’ve followed the best advice, the most conservative of all and invested in tangibles, lots and lots of tangibles. – E.L.

Odds ‘n Sods:

In Texas, they wouldn’t call this a “weapons cache”, rather they’d describe it as a “a good start at a gun collection”: Weapons Cache Found Near Home of Former N.J. Cop (A tip of the hat to Hawaiian K. for the link.)

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Florida Guy sent us this bit of anticipated news: Zimbabwe abandons its currency. So it seems that that via hyperinflation, Comrade Mugabe and his cronies have effectively fleeced the entire life savings of virtually everyone in that once-prosperous nation. The only value the Zimbabwean dollar now has is as a novelty item for currency collectors. (A crisp new Z$100 Trillion note might fetch a few US Dollars on eBay. But on the streets of Harare, a Z$100 Trillion bill might buy a few cigarettes.) The nation has plunged into utter hopelessness.and despair.

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In case you missed the announcement, the WRSA is offering their excellent yet inexpensive Grid-Down Medical Course again this year. Classes are scheduled in Lancaster, Pennsylvania – (February 7-8), and Peyton, Colorado (February 27-March 1)

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Camping Survival (one of our advertisers) is having a big seasonal Blowout Sale. Check out the many bargains, including one of my favorites, Dr. Bronner’s Peppermint Castile Soap!

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Just as I warned you, more hedge fund redemption suspensions: Fortress Blocks Redemptions as Shareholders Lose 96% Since IPO. (A hat tip to Scott N. for that link.) In other economic news, Bank Bailout Could Cost Up to $4 Trillion. And, naturlich, Cheryl sent us another big stack of links: Stocks Extend Slump as Investors Fear Worsening Economy — Japanese Economy Hit by the “Perfect Storm” — Honda Shuts UK Factory for Four Months — Toyota Posts First Net Loss Since 1963 — A Professional Run on Banks has Begun — Brown Warns of Void Left by Collapse of Global Financial System — Gold Rally Fills Vaults with Bullion as Bank Stimulus Increases — Some Credit Card Companies are Financially Profiling their Customers

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I figured out when I was a little kid that it was better to be a pessimist than an optimist. You see, when you’re an optimist, the best that happens is that things go as you planned, and half the time you’re bitterly disappointed. But when you’re a pessimist, the worst that ever happens is that things to exactly the way you were prepared for them to go, and half the time you’re pleasantly surprised.” – Massad Ayoob , January 1, 2009

Note from JWR:

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The New Washington, DC Paradigm Does Not Bode Well for Economic Recovery or Gun Ownership

Wednesday’s news of passage of the “supplementary” TARP II $900 billion stimulus and bailout legislative package in the House of Representatives is noteworthy. The fact that it passed with hardly a whimper is evidence that Congress cannot be trusted to show any fiscal restraint. According to the Wall Street Journal only about 12 cents of every dollar appropriated in that legislation will go for something that can be considered a growth stimulus, yet there was no lengthy or substantive debate on the bill. The floodgates of the Treasury have been opened! The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) is now sure to further expand, to heretofore unimagined proportions. Henceforth, each time that there is a new “crisis” or “emergency”, or a “threat” to a vital industry, Uncle Sugar will dump veritable truckloads of magically-created money on the problem. What will be deemed a “vital” industry? Car makers have already been deemed vital. So why not truck and heavy equipment manufacturers? And the steel mills? And the airlines? And the aircraft makers? Ship builders? Why not yacht builders? The newspapers? (“They’re really hurting, so let’s just print more money!) Despite the fact that every Republican congressman voted against it, the bill was passed by the Democratic majority.

The passage of this bill is an ominous sign, and it is a dangerous precedent, especially when we consider the other legislation that the Obama-Reid-Pelosi cabal may have in mind. I suspect that they have plans for a panoply of socialist programs including universal (taxpayer-funded) health coverage, the so-called Fairness Doctrine, expatriation controls, enormous welfare and public works programs, and, of course new civilian disarmament (“gun control”) legislation. Perhaps our only hope on the latter is expansion of the Heller and Lopez Supreme Court precedents, in new court decisions that affirm the Second Amendment as both and individual right and a collective right, and that further constrain Federal jurisdiction on firearms manufacture and sales. In light of Heller, any law, agency directive (or “interpretation”), or executive order that infringes on the Second Amendment will quickly be stricken down. (But then there is the nagging issue of Federal court packing by the BHO administration. This is possible, depending on how many SCOTUS justices retire in the next four to eight years.)

Getting back to the economic morass, the key point again is that the floodgates have been opened. There is now no limit to the MOAB. Rather than allow the natural market cycle to work malinvestment out of the economy, the Federal government and the Federal Reserve banking cartel will do their best to reliquify and and re-inflate the Big Bubble. What will come of this is anyone’s guess, since this is truly Terra Incognita. A liquidity crisis this enormous is without precedent. Will the deflationary spiral be unstoppable? Will mass inflation emerge? Stay tuned. But don’t look to me for answers. I didn’t write the script. Or then again, maybe I did.

Business Week recently reported: “New Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is exploring the creation of a government-funded ‘bad bank’ to buy up mortgage-backed securities and other troubled assets from banks in hopes of boosting their capital levels…” This is all aimed at breaking banks out of their fear of lending. Bankers are currently so petrified that the credit market has essentially dried up. Even ostensibly credit-worthy companies can’t get loans. So the MOAB expands, yet again, using taxpayer dollars to buy up the toxic debt. Talk about a losing proposition! Only a government would embark on such a venture. Of course, they’ll be doing what governments do best: spending other people’s money.

The government’s response to the credit collapse could best be described as a “horrible spasm”. (I mean that in the McNamara sense of the term.) The Feds and the Fed are flailing about, throwing money around in gargantuan quantities, hoping that something, anything works to get credit flowing and the economy jump started. They won’t dare admit that they have no idea what they are doing. Parenthetically, do you remember Jim Cramer shouting “He has no idea!”, back in August of ’07? Perhaps that public meltdown on CNBC was a foreshadowing that The Powers That Be still have no idea. Again, we’ve entered Terra Incognita. As I warned in July of ’07 and again in March of ’08, things could get very, very bad before they ge any t better.

To monitor the economic situation, I recommend watching some key figures:

The first is the US Dollar Index. (After testing the critical 72 level, the Dollar has gained strength in foreign exchange. (Not because of any inherent strength, but rather because European banking is even more badly broken than American banking, and the Euro and Pound have taken a beating)

Next is the spot price of gold. (Can you spell “suppression”?)

This Adjusted Monetary Base chart released by the St. Louis regional Federal Reserve Bank sheds further light on the “Big Picture”. (Look closely: Don’t miss the upright spike that is hidden behind the gray bar at the right end of the chart, showing the enormous growth of the monetary base in 2008.)

And lets not forget the bank reserves statistics published by the Federal Reserve.(These show a banking system that was until recently starving for reserves, but is now gorged with reserves that the bankers refuse to lend, out of fear.)

For even greater detail, see Dr. Gary North’s “Charts to Monitor” links.

In conclusion, I must repeat my long-standing advice to SurvivalBlog readers: Get prepared to ride out a lengthy economic depression with accompanying civil strife, massive economic dislocation, and the destruction of the dollar as a currency unit. Self-sufficiency, self-defense, and charity may very well be the bywords of the coming decade.

Letter Re: A Handy Book for Boys

I’ve only recently become a SurvivalBlog reader, but I thought I’d share some info about a book I’ve had sitting on my shelf for quite some time. I’d never really put any thought into its usefulness until lately.
It’s called The American Boy’s Handybook. I first caught sight of it several years ago, way back in Elementary School, when I was just a little cuss, not the full sized cuss I’ve grown up to be.
Like the title says, the book itself is geared toward the younger generation, ages 8 – 18+. But there is a wealth of information that even the oldest of us kids can make use of.
Originally published in 1890, the book is packed, cover to cover, with projects and activities that require no electricity, no high tech spare parts, and perhaps most important, no advanced tools. Nowhere, in the entire book, will you find a single request for a band saw, circular saw, arc welder, hammer drill, or power tool of any sort. I would say that 75% of all the projects inside can be built with a hand saw, hatchet, hammer, and some simple elbow grease.
All four seasons are covered, with different projects (both FUN and FUNctional) appropriate for each. Without my copy to reference (it’s currently on loan) I can’t give a complete rundown of all its contents. Some subjects include, but are far from limited to:
– Spear Fishing
– Small Boat Construction
– Dead Drop Traps
– Build a Kite from scratch
– Make and Use a Bow and Arrow
– Basic Taxidermy
From hunting and trapping, to games and toys to keep the younger members of your family occupied, this book has something for everyone. Kids too little to be out checking the snares with Mom or Dad? Why not have them put together a Shadow Puppet Show for after dinner entertaining? Fresh snow on the ground? Teach them how to build their very own Snow Fortress. Bullets in short supply? (I hope not, but you never know.) Fashion a spear thrower or bola for taking down small game. Always wanted your own fishing boat, but couldn’t justify (or afford) the expense of a special purpose boat? Build your own flat bottom watercraft.
These are just a few of the things I can remember off hand. IMHO, this is one of those books that should be on everyone’s shelf. Even if The Schumer doesn’t Hit The Fan, you can still keep the kids off the couch, learning to do for themselves, like people used to, before we all got our McLobotomies.
Thanks for All You Do, – C.M., Maine

Two Letters Re: More Predictions for 2009, by Roger Wiegand

Good Morning, Jim!
This is a response to “More Predictions for 2009”:
We can’t make other peoples’ choices for them, but we can be affected by them. We are our brothers’ keepers, but not their masters. Governments will always do what they always do. You need to be concerned with your “mini government” – your own household. Wherein the adults are the governing body and are also constituents (along with any dependents). I choose to focus on what I can control and not toil and spin about the stuff I can’t control.
My predictions for 2009?
– My wife and I will finally take an NRA rifle safety course (already in the works).
– Depending on how our marksmanship and safety progresses, we might hunt for food.
– We will evaluate how much wood we burned through winter and adjust accordingly.
– We will increase the size of our (tiny) gardens with knowledge from last year.
– We continue to diversify our income streams and savings (between the two of us we have five incomes: two main, one moderate, and two minor).
– We will reduce expense by finding cheap alternatives to everything and continuing to make our house efficient.
– We will unashamedly get all we can for free. Fruit from public land, materials from Craig’s List, wood from a friend, etc.
– We review home security, vehicle capability, bug-out-bag readiness, and take budget-appropriate actions
– We will finally repay the rest of college loan debt and live truly debt free!! (remember: a mortgage is an investment in equity)

Our mindset is that being “in the world but not of the world” makes a lot of sense for every aspect of our personal existence, not just religious influence. While there are a lot of frightening and depressing aspects to be aware of, we will not be frightened or depressed by our awareness of them. I wrote not to criticize Mr. Wiegand’s excellent analysis, but to simply reinforce focus on what we can do because of these signs.
– Carl H.

 

Jim,

I must say that Wiegand is another huckster that has had his hat handed to him over the last two years: the S&P has done better than his portfolio. He is another guy that can’t make money in good times or bad. If you followed this guy’s advice, your account would be friggin’ destroyed.

Here are the four theses of Jimmy Rodgers, Peter Schiff, Wiegand, and all the other hyperinflation guys:

1.) US Equity Markets Will Crash.
2.) US Dollar Will Go to Near Zero (Hyperinflation).
3.) Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
4.) Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.

They got #1 right, but their investments related to that were a disaster– 2, 3, and 4. Big flops. Why promote people who have been wrong for 30 years?
FYI, there has never, ever been hyperinflation with deflating real estate prices. There has never, ever been hyperinflation when one’s debt is denominated in their own currency.
You may find this article about [Peter Schiff] interesting: Regards, – Jeff K.

Odds ‘n Sods:

“The Survivalist” mentioned this article: More than a million wait in icy darkness across US

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As most SurvivalBlog readers surely deduced long ago, I am an inveterate scrounger. I scan through Craig’s List with the same regularity as the Bald Eagles that cruise up and down The Unnamed River here at the Rawles Ranch do, at this time of year. So I was delighted that while doing some web wandering today, I found a link over at Keep and Bear Arms to this inspirational article: Praxis: Scavenging as a Guerrilla Art Form.

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Eric flagged this update: Peanut butter recall expanded to two years’ worth of products. Here is an FDA web page with a searchable list of hundreds of recalled peanut butter products.

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The latest huge dose of gloom-‘n-doomage from the Economatrix: Global Unemployment Nears 50 Million — OPEC Warns of More Oil Output Cuts — BP Sees Further Crash in Oil Demand — Can the Market Avoid a February Fold? — George Soros (the Billionaire) Selling Off Sterling — Europe’s Winter of Discontent — More Job Cuts (Boeing 10,000; Starbucks 6,700, etc.) — Billions More Needed for Bank Rescues — Millionaires Crisis Plan: Return to Bartering — IMF: British Slump will be Worst in Developed World — Sony’s Quarterly Net Profit Tumbled 95% — Record Number in US Getting Jobless Benefits — Despair Spreads Amid Mounting Job Losses — Florida Beans and Corn Destroyed, Potatoes Delayed (Expect higher prices)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“One aspect of the red state versus blue state dynamic of the country which is often overlooked, is that while the Blue States have come out on top politically, the red states are much more self-sufficient in resources and infrastructure. In a time of crisis this underlying dynamic would become painfully obvious, as overpopulated and undersupplied states in the North and Midwest began demanding resources from politically disenfranchised states in the South and West where most of the agricultural and energy resources are located. When the force of the federal government is turned to massive redistribution of wealth and resources, those who are on the losing end of that redistribution are going to be very disgruntled. When a central government which you feel does not represent you comes to take the food from the mouths of your children and give it to someone else, suddenly concepts like secession and civil war seem more appealing than they might under ideal conditions.” – Dave Nalle

Letter Re: Mini-14s as Battle Rifles?

Hello,
Is a Ruger [Mini-14 .223] Ranch Rifle a good low cost battle rifle choice? Apparently they are not for anything past “medium range”. (Honestly I don’t know what that means.) Although the new Mini-14s [with] 580[-prefix] serial numbers are supposedly more accurate at longer ranges than previous Ranch Rifles. I am interested in going to an Appleseed event sometime later this year and was wondering if this might work for their program. Also if it is a good gun I was going to go ahead and buy the 20 round factory Ruger magazines. Thanks, – Clint C.

JWR Replies: In my opinion, even the latest production variants of the Ruger Mini-14 Ranch Rifle are a marginal compromise choice for a .223 battle rifle. But they might be a good choice for folks in California, where many other semi-auto rifles are already banned by state law. But be advised that they won’t be exempt from the proposed Federal ban. (Yes, “Ruger Mini-14” is on the updated ban list. They made it under the radar back in 1994, but they won’t in 2009.)

The drawbacks to Mini-14 Ranch Rifles that I can see are:

1.) The fragile flip-up rear sights on the earlier-production guns. Buy a couple of spares, even if you plan to use the provided scope rings.

2.) Their expensive magazines. (Buy only original Ruger-made 20 or 30 round magazines, and get at least eight of them. (The after-market magazines are most often junk that often do not feed properly.) AR-15s are inherently more accurate than Mini-14s, but they do require more frequent cleaning. It is noteworthy that magazines for AR-15s cost less than half as much as original Mini-14 magazines.

3.) They lack a flash-hider. But this can of course be quickly remedied with an aftermarket flash hider (such as those made by Choate), most of which do not require gunsmithing.

4.) Their marginal accuracy, compared to ARs. From what I’ve heard, with the possible exception of the new 580-series (et sequitur), Mini-14s shoot groups that average nearly twice as large as an AR with the same barrel length. This is a function of the barrel-to-stock contact at the lug at the front of the handguard. (Design demerits to the late Bill Ruger!) Yes, they can be tinkered with, but why pour money into a rifle to make it shoot straight, when you can get the same accuracy “right out of the box” with an AR?

5.) They lack the ubiquity of the AR-15 series. This has implications to everything from availability of magazines, to spare parts, to accessories (you can get anything imaginable for an AR), and to even training. Anyone that is prior US military service from around 1966 onward will likely already know how to handle, shoot, zero, and field strip an AR, because they are mechanically almost identical to M16s and M4s. In contrast, Mini-14 mechanical training is something that is well-known by former prison guards, more than anyone else.

So, all in all, I’d opt for an AR-15 clone or M4gery rather than a Mini-14. The AR’s accuracy, profusion of available spare parts, and readily-available magazines gives them the edge.

But again, for someone living in one of the gun-deprived states, a Mini-14 might make sense. The other notable exception is in tropical climates, where if you buy the all-stainless steel composite-stock Mini-14 variants, they’ll have better long-term resistance to corrosion than ARs.

As preciously discussed in SurvivalBlog, the next step up from an AR or AK would be an HK91 clone, such as those made by PTR91 Inc. (Formerly JLD), and up until some recent legal trouble, by Vector Arms. The 7.62mm NATO cartridge is far more capable than 5.56mm NATO, especially beyond 250 yards. The magazines for HKs are also dirt cheap. (As little as $5 each for German surplus G3 alloy magazines. That might make a big difference in the near future, since another 11+ round magazine production ban looks very likely.) I’d recommend buying an HK91 clone if you can afford it–that is if you can even find one, is today’s frantic market.

Letter Re: Handy Uses for Thermite

James:
I followed a link from your site and ended up at the DBC Pyrotechnics site, looking at a lot of 10 Thermite “all weather fire starters”.

It seems like a very handy tool to have – cold weather fire starters like that. I wonder if any other readers of your novel might find them useful. A lot of 100 of those might be just a very useful thing to add into someone’s retreat supplies.

Now if I can just find a place that offers pre-mixed bulk thermite, I might build some nice #2 can-size thermite devices, in case I ever have a need to do some “off grid welding”, or whatever. A smaller [one quart] can [at the bottom of] a larger can filled with sand (along the sides) tends to direct more of the molten metal down through the bottom. Just the thing if you need to put a nice, fairly round hole through some steel plate for a special construction project. – Bob B.


JWR Replies: I describe how to “mix your own” thermite as well as how to make thermite igniters in my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. Thermite itself is quite easy to make, with black iron oxide and aluminum powder. But the igniters are a bit harder to improvise. So it might be easiest just to buy the small readily-available DBC Pyrotechnics fire starters with integral igniters, and use them to start larger containers of home-made thermite powder for those big cutting and welding projects.

Three Letters Re: The Gray Man in the Coming Storm

Jim:

On Tuesday Jan. 27th, SurvivalBlog readers found 12 [follow-up] letters concerning the recent “Gray Man” letter. I believe the writer’s of the majority of those letters need to go back and re-read the original Gray Man post. That post included several suggestions for “surviving” within an area of control of a repressive government. They included putting pro-government bumper stickers on your car, checking out pro-government library books, accepting with a smile the government ID chip, gladly taking and using a government credit card and thanking the government for doing a good job. These are not “Gray Man hide in plain sight” activities. These are all actions that actively support the government. These are all activities that say to your neighbors that you support the government and that you think it’s actions are proper. Whatever your secretly held thoughts might be, your actions are what your children and friends will see and it may add to their own doubts about their yearnings for freedom.

Please consider, if you choose not to openly fight repression, at least choose to not support it. You don’t need to quickly line up to get a chip or credit card. Don’t get it until you feel you have no other choice in order to survive. You don’t need to put a government bumper sticker on your car. If you are afraid to proclaim what you really believe, say nothing at all. Don’t give support to your secretly held enemy. Simply ignore them in every way possible. At the least, by complying as slowly as possible, you will slow the government machine down.

Several of the 12 letters spoke about spies of WWII and how they engaged in activities to gain favor with the enemy, in order to gather information for the Resistance. One letter spoke about a soldier alone behind enemy lines, who did as much as he could to avoid detection and detention, in order to return to his own lines. These are not examples of so called “Gray men”. They were soldiers doing an assigned job in order to defeat the enemy. The villagers who secretly fed the partisans during the War in Europe were not Gray Men displaying happy faces. They were patriots supporting the war behind the front lines. Any of them that were caught were summarily executed. The so called “Gray Man” of the original post would do nothing to cause his arrest or worse.

It is said that during the American War for Independence, about a third of the population of the colonies put their lives, their families, and treasure at risk to gain Freedom. A third were blackguards who supported the king, and a third just stayed home and hoped somebody else would do the right thing. I would hope that in the coming days, we Americans can do at least as well as our ancestors. I pray that, at the least, there be one Patriot for every miserable “Gray Man”. – Jim in Ohio

 

Mr. Rawles:
This “Gray Man” mini-controversy has prompted me to weigh in on the matter. I am mildly surprised at the strong reactions to it, although I suppose I shouldn’t be. To be frank, this is precisely the survival mindset as taught in military SERE schools. The younger, and more passionate among us are mildly amusing in their rants against it. I suppose they need to really scrub down your mission statement, as it were, before spouting off about such things. Is your goal the survival of your family, other retreat members, and yourself, or, are you out to fight against the outlaw gangs, UN troops, T-1,000 [Terminator]s, etc.

Yes we would love to do both, but obviously(?) depending on what happens, you may have to choose one or the other. In many scenarios, it may be necessary to hunker down and just survive the initial chain of events before even considering venturing out to right wrongs and slay evil-doers. So in theory, the Gray Man concept may be necessary to live to fight another day.

Would I submit to the indignities described or defiantly say hell no and go down in a blaze of glory? The timing of your defiance would certainly seem to be critical. If you waited too late and found yourself in a corner and had to submit to it, hopefully you would be able to escape at some point and head for the hills. If you saw it coming in time enough to escape and join with other like-minded individuals, then you may be in a position to resist.

There are so many variables here, to sit and argue over such things is pointless. You may be on reconnaissance from your retreat and get policed up in a sweep and in end up in a camp. You may have to become the Gray Man to facilitate your escape.

The world is not so black and white. In unconventional warfare, being the Gray Man aptly describes many skill sets necessary to fight a stronger opponent. You only need look at recent history to understand how this works. You can get on-line and frontal assault the machine gun nest, or you can wait till they are marching back to camp and ambush them.

Seems kinda obvious to me, but it’s gonna take more then pure hearts, raw courage, and hard work to defeat your enemies. It may also take swallowing your pride, being beaten and humiliated, and biding your time for when you strike back. If you are captured and maintain this overtly defiant attitude, likely as not you will be shot outright, and do no one any good.

So I think each man needs to do some soul-searching here. Are you really doing what’s best to accomplish your goals, or is this your pride, or ego talking? Semper Fi, – Diz

 

Dear Jim,
After following the “Gray Man” debate, I have to say that I agree that the; “They can kill me, but I’ll die a free man.” position sounds great, but is a prime example of testosterone toxicity. However, that still leaves the issue of capitulation vs. effective resistance. The problem being that no one to date has presented any compelling suggestions as to how an effective resistance can be mounted. Anyone who tries to start is with the idea of becoming a rallying point, winds up cheered, jailed and forgotten; anyone who has a the right strategy seems to be silent. My problem is that we all know and understand the problem; there is no real need to keep chewing on it.

E-mail, Forums, Blogs, Broadsheets, Shortwave radio shows; [is just] talk, talk, talk. The Tyrants are perfectly content to let us rant, and rave, and even spout the truth about how they are enslaving us all. Just so long as we comply with each and every edict, and with each one, we are lead inexorably, to accept ever heavier chains.

What we need is some ideas on effective resistance; solutions to the problems of creeping enslavement? Please don’t tell me, or anyone that “dying a free man” is useless, unless you can tell me also what else I might do, besides surrender.

Who then will provide us with solutions? Who can answer the question: How do you effectively resist the Tyrants without going to prison, or getting killed? Political action is a waste of time, “We the People” are ignored. I admit that I am not smart enough to know the answer. Where is our V, our Danneskjöld? Without such a leader, or without such ideas, I see only the ability to throw more bodies in front of the Juggernaut, until it is starved for a lack of slaves, and victims.

So my question is not; “Who is John Galt?, but rather ” John Galt; Where are you?”

Happy Trails – Fanderal

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks to Laura H. for this link: California prepares to stop paying bills: Come Feb. 1, tax refunds, welfare checks replaced with IOUs

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From The Appenzell Daily Bell: U.S. ratchets up pressure on UBS. Banking privacy may indeed be another casualty of the global economic crisis.

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Bill N. suggested a short article on using the shotgun for defense.

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More economic news, starting with this from Scott N.: Thousands stuck in property funds as Standard halts exits. (Does this sound familiar? As I’ve been warning people for two years, hedge fund and insurance redemption suspensions will become increasingly commonplace as the credit market and overall economy continue to deteriorate. Matt L. found this: English Town Establishes New Currency. Luddite Jean in England sent this: Taxes to soar by £20 BILLION per year as IMF warns Britain faces deeper recession than any other country: And from Cheryl (aka The Economatrix): Fed to Leave Interest Rate Near Zero for Some Time — Postmaster General: Mail Delivery Days May Have to Be Cut — US Houses Spiraling Down and Down — Warning Over Collapse of Capital Flows — Millions of Chinese Set to Lose Jobs — Senator Warns White House Will “Create Crisis” and “Panic” to Push Stimulus Bill — Hedging Your Investment Portfolio by Buying Firearms — Bankers’ Fear of Unemployment — Bad News for Food Eaters (The Mogambo Guru) — Everybody’s Business: Deep in Debt and Now Deep in Worry

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Craig W. recommended this “Gray Man” Urban Camouflage Gun Bag. (OBTW, I’ve also seen guitar cases and golf bags used to the same effect.)

Notes from JWR:

The current high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is at $1,160. This auction is for a large mixed lot, which includes::

1.) A “be ready to barter” box of 36 full-capacity gun magazines, from my personal collection in JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original Austrian FN-FAL steel 20 round magazines, with cartridge counter holes, 10 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (all Colt made!) alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Excellent condition original Glock Model 19 9mm 15 round pistol magazines (early type, with “U” notch), and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $710, in today’s market. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new-in-box Hot Jaw Bag Sealer and a box of 10 Mylar bags . (Every retreat group should have one these, since they are a tremendous labor saver!) This is a $200 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A gift certificate for $100 worth of books, courtesy of Back 40 Books.

6.) A case of 12 cans of recent production nitrogen-packed storage granola (mixed varieties) This is a $96 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, this auction has a combined value in excess of $1,565.

This auction ends on February 15th. Please e-mail us your bid. Your bid will be for the entire mixed lot.

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Today we present a guest editorial from Roger Wiegand. He is the Editor and Publisher of Trader Tracks Newsletter. Roger is co-editor of WeBeatTheStreet.com and he writes a weekly column, “Rog’s Corner,” For J Taylor’s Gold and Technology Stocks Newsletter. He has had an interest in precious metals and futures since the commodity rallies of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Roger is a voracious reader, reviewing several domestic and foreign newspapers and wire services daily for economic, political, and monetary news. His commentary is frequently featured at KITCO.com.