Mexican Flu Update

It has been reported that the incubation period for the Mexican Swine Flu is 4-to-5 days, and perhaps as long as 10 days in children. That’s the “hot” period when someone infected is shedding the virus. This is bad news for epidemiologists. With modern air travel, this means that there is probably no stopping the flu from making it to the far reaches of the globe. So now, all that we can do is wait, watch, and pray that it doesn’t mutate into a more lethal strain. Barring that, my guesstimate is that it will be every country with a couple of months. The crucial time will be next winter in the Northern Hemisphere. It is now Fall in the Southern Hemisphere, so their upcoming flu season might give us a preview of what will happen up here, next year. Are you ready to hunker down when the flu hits your town?

Here are today’s flu headlines:

The Government’s Forecast if Flu Problem Explodes: Two Million Americans Die “Ninety million citizens would get sick. The economy would shut down.”

DHS Sets Guidelines For Possible Swine Flu Quarantines

Official: US Flu Victims May Be Infecting Others Confirmed cases in Asia Pacific and New Zealand

Schumer Bragged About Cutting Pandemic Funding (Well, now we are all in Deep Schumer.)

Swine Flu More Dangerous than Bird Flu

Why Does the Swine Flu Kill Healthy People?

WHO Revises Scale For Pandemic Alerts

Mexican Reports: Flu Much Worse Than Reported “The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff. There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks.” – Dr. Antonio Chavez

Two Swine Flu Cases Confirmed in Scotland

Swine Flu Boosts Demand For Face Masks, Antivirals

Swine Flu Warning Raised as Virus Crosses Continents Now at Level 4. Could become Level 5 in the next few days.

Washingtonians Prepare for Swine Flu

Flu: Worst Case Scenario

Swine Flu Epidemic Enters Dangerous New Phase “The virus poses a potentially grave new threat to the U.S. economy, which was showing tentative early signs of a recovery. A widespread outbreak could batter tourism, food and transportation industries, deepening the recession in the U.S. and possibly worldwide.”

40 Cases of Swine Flu in US to Date (No Deaths)

WHO Confirms Pandemic Alert Level Raised to Level 4

Swine Flu Cases Around the World

Swine Flu Fears Close Schools in CA, TX, NY

Americans Told to Wear Masks as Swine Flu Spreads Around the World

My Experience with a Field Gear Invention, by Mike B.

I would like to share with everyone something I have in my Bug out Bag (BOB) that I have yet to see mentioned in any post or forum on the subject. I stole the idea fair and square from survival expert Les Stroud (of Survivorman television series fame) and modified it to suit my needs and budget. This simple addition weighs very little, costs very little, and makes so much sense I wondered why I hadn’t thought of it for so many years.

In Les’s treks through the Canadian wilderness, he would often be seen wearing what looked like a tail. What Les had was a waterproof ‘flap’ that hung off of his belt which he tucked underneath his backside whenever he wanted to sit down. What this allowed him to do was sit on any wet fallen tree, rock or anything else that was hard but damp. While he was dressed in layers with his outer layer being water proof, Les regularly removed layers to avoid sweating. The effect was always having a dry place to sit, rest, or work.

Without any details on the construction, I looked around for a suitable alternative which would perform the same function and still be affordable on my budget. My answer was a common, everyday car floor mat. A simple, rectangular rubber mat with ‘carpet’ on the top was all I needed. Both the rubber and the carpet are extremely durable materials.

For a few dollars new and even less if you get one from the junk yard or ‘you-pull-it’ lot, all you need to do is poke a few holes along one of the short ends and tie it around your waist or through a few belt loops. The rubber underside is waterproof while the carpet side affords some level of comfort and warmth. This will not feel like your lazy-boy, but if you have ever had your shorts ride up on you because some part of them has soaked through, then this will be a welcome, light, and cheap luxury.

My original design was a rectangular mat that I picked up from Wal-Mart for about $10. I poked four holes along one of the short edges and wove a small rope through each hole so that the majority of the rope was behind the mat and not against my back. Unfortunately, this arrangement did not work out well because the mat was too small. The mat was designed for the back seat floor boards. I did not correctly account for the length of the L-shaped that would form between my lower back and the beginnings of the back of my legs.

My current version was more difficult to find: A longer rectangular mat that was designed to be used for the front seat floor boards. I was able to find it at K-Mart. (Nothing succeeds like success so it doesn’t matter where it comes from as long as it works.) I also replaced the rope with a ribbon style belt. Instead of cutting holes in the mat, I cut four slits and wove the belt through the slits. This keeps the mat closer to my body, is easier to put on and take off, and is generally more comfortable. Now the mat reaches from my lower back to just below my lower legs. This is more than enough length to give me a large footprint to sit on if a log or rock is especially large. The shorter version one only worked when the diameter of the log was small or the rock was about the same size as my backside. The new version lets me sit down in wet grass and leaves to rest or to sit on the bumper of my dew-covered car to adjust my boots.

You will need to size the mat for your height and the size of your backside and length of your legs. Remember to check that the mat will bend into an L- or Z-shape. You can get away with an irregularly shaped mat if you would like, I just thought that a rectangle would give the most coverage for the least amount of weight. An irregular mat may give you more dry space to put things down next to you.

The mat may tap you in the back of the legs as you walk (especially when walking up or down hill). You will either need to get use to that or, after attaching it around your waist, roll the map up and put a rubber band on one or both ends. The rubber bands allow for a quick unrolling before sitting. However, if you roll the mat up after you have used it, you may transfer some moisture to the carpeted side Personally, I just got use to it tapping me in the back of legs. Given the movement of my pack while I walk, it is hardly noticeable.

Letter Re: Bike Frame-Mounted DC Power Generators

James,
Just a follow-up to the question about bicycle power: If you do a Google search on the phrase “bicycle power generator” then several interesting options come up. One is a web site that offers free plans.

JWR Replies: Just keep in mind that every hour spent trudging away on a bike frame generator is an hour that you could also use doing something else productive. Dollar for dollar and hour for hour, photovoltaic panels are the way to go–they make power every day with minimal maintenance. I consider bike-frame mounted generators fairly specialized devices for peculiar circumstances, such as when someone is cooped up in a fallout shelter. My general advice is: Yes, go ahead and build one, but make it readily adaptable to multiple purposes, by using perforated box beam construction for the back half. This is similar to the construction method often used for hobby-built electric go-carts and similar projects. With perforated steel box beams, you will minimize the amount of welding needed to fairly quickly reconfigure the back half. For example, you could attach various pulleys and V-belts that can in turn be attached to a Country Living grain mill, a meat grinder, or a metal grinding/sharpening wheel.

Letter Re: Another “Patriots” Book Sighting

Hi Jim,
I hope all is well with you and your family. I just want to let you know that I spotted a copy of “Patriots” today in an unexpected place. My April issue of Christianity Today arrived and on page 42 is an article about Pastor Doug Wilson. On that page there is a picture of him standing in front of a large bookshelf filled with books. I noticed right in the middle is a copy of “Patriots” on the bookshelf. – Nick in Indy

JWR Replies: You just made my day. I have been a fan of Doug Wilson’s writings for many years. He is the editor of Credenda Agenda–an excellent magazine on Christian apologetics from a Reformed perspective. Wilson pastors Christ Church, that meets in Moscow, Idaho. Since my novel is set in the Moscow region, this probably explains why he has a copy.

Economics and Investing:

From G.L: US Housing Market Heading for a Bigger Crash

Ted spotted this: US Home Prices Fall, But Pace of Decline Eased Slightly

Courtesy of Lee H.: Falsifying Bank Balance Sheets

Items from The Economatrix:

Oil Drops Below $50 on Flu Fears

The Economy Looks Beyond The Recession to Disease and Terrorism Two key quotes: “The stock market responded with a shudder yesterday but at least did not collapse in response to the weekend media blitz about the Swine Flu outbreak. The reaction of the world’s markets is likely to be close to panic if this disease becomes widespread and lethal.” and, ” …what else [could] a weak economy could survive. There is an answer and it is that the economy can’t take much more.”

Flu Stock Index Continues to Move Up

Gulfstream, Cessna Sales to Slide 50% Next Two Years as CEOs Shun Jets

US Consumer Confidence Rises in April

Review of US Economic Data for 4/28/09

JP Morgan Collapse Could Trigger Next Global Stock Market Crash ” …the probability of another stock market crash within the foreseeable future is very high. The word “crash” is used advisedly. Since early March 2009, the industrial equity markets have been rising on misplaced hope. When that hope is dashed – as looks highly probable – the consequence is likely to be a wave of selling pressure given that the credibility of the financial authorities will have been shattered.”

Fed Using Currency Swaps to Boost US Dollar

ETF Chart Trend Comparisons

TARP Cop Sees Unstressful Bank Tests “The adverse scenario used to test the health of the 19 largest U.S. banks is “disturbingly close” to current economic conditions, sparking a concern that there might need to be a second “stress test,” a U.S. financial bailout fund watchdog said…”

Is “Possible Pandemic” A Diversion From The Economic Crisis?

20% of Asia Hedge Funds Closed Since January, 2008

Japan Facing Worse Economic Outlook Ever

Dying GM to Cut 21,000 Factory Jobs, Pontiac is History

The Chinese Yuan Goes Global

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Hoss” spotted this video segment: Ozark Mountain man’s ‘survival garden’ gains worldwide attention. Len Pense shows the SurvivalBlogger mentality, in action.

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Craig W. sent us a link to a Biogas generator demonstration. OBTW, unless you want to remove your chromosomes from the gene pool, never squirt lighter fluid from a can or bottle onto an active ignition source, as he does in this video!

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Reader HK sent us this article from a clever gardener up in Alaska: How does your garden grow? Former Iowa resident presents a different way to plant veggies

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Break out the ice skates! From Modern Maximum back to Maunder Minimum Sunspot Levels?

Mexican Flu Update

The death toll in Mexico now at 149, and climbing, with more than 2,000 patients are hospitalized there. Containment appears unlikely. For a flu to spread this rapidly outside of the normal “cold and flu season” tells us something about its ferocity. I suspect that we will see multiple waves of infection, with the worst of them probably being next winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Mutations are impossible to predict. The only good news is that at least in the long term, viruses tend to mutate into less lethal strains. (The most lethal–a la the Marburg type hemorrhagic viruses–are so lethal that the hosts don’t live long enough to pass on the viruses to others. Hence the tendency for many bugs is to become less virulent. The common cold (acute viral rhinopharyngitis), it is said, probably started out as a killer, many centuries ago.)

SurvivalBlog Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson sent us a link to the first really practical article on using N95 masks that I’ve ever seen, by Tara Smith.

Mentioned a useful CDC background piece: Antiviral Drugs and Swine Influenza

Reader Matt J. in Kentucky notes: “Wal-Mart in Louisville, Kentucky is already out of N95 masks, but the hardware stores like Home Depot and Lowe’s have 20-packs readily available (I bought two 20-packs at Lowe’s and one 20-pack at Home Depot.” OBTW, Bob at Ready Made Resources mentioned that sales have been very brisk, and they are now nearly out N95 masks, despite buying all that their wholesale suppliers had on hand. He also mentioned that their inexpensive full protective suit ensembles are going fast

Here are some of the day’s flu headlines:

World closer to swine flu pandemic

Swine Flu: Five Things You Need to Know About the Outbreak Thanks to Dave (at Captain Dave’s) for the link

Texas Closes More Schools as Flu Spreads

Obama: Flu Matter of Concern Not One of Alarm (yet)

Mexico City Now a Zombie City

Call Your Congressman! US Says Not Testing Travelers From Mexico

Swine Flu Hits Ernst & Young in Times Square, N.J. Department of Health Confirms Five Probable Cases

Flashback to 1994: CDC to mix avian, human flu viruses in pandemic study

Letter Re: Tapping the National Medications Stockpile

Jim,
Sunday, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced that they would open up the National Stockpile of medications to provide antivirals to areas that may need them. This comment is a big clue to the real concern that this is already getting out of control. The National Stockpile is rarely tapped so this is a big event and a potential trigger for those out there who need to be aware. Luckily this year’s human flu was resistant to Tamiflu so there appears to be stock left, but this is also the end of the season so normal supplies are low. Relenza is another antiviral that is available and the swine flu is sensitive too, (at this point). Tamiflu [dosing] is weight-based for children and Relenza is not indicated for patients less than seven years old. I would suggest that anyone with significant medical conditions obtain an antiviral prescription from their friendly doctor now, and not later. Obviously large cities, especially those with international airport hubs, and those on the border, or with large migrant populations probably aren’t the best places to be right now. What triggers a bug out is individualized, but there is a definite advantage of being in a small town. But even Kansas hasn’t been spared with this one. With schools being shut down, that forces adult parents to stay home which causes shortages of employees not only at the mall, but the grocery store, the shipper, the police station, the hospital, the gas station…etc… Plan accordingly for any last minute items you need. – Mike the MD

Flu and Antibacterials, by David in Israel

James
I constantly see recommendations for people to use hand sanitizer especially every time the flu-de jure becomes a problem. Over my years as a firefighter/paramedic many of my co-workers used hand sanitizer on a regular basis, the most frequent users often ended up with cracked skin and infections or scabs at the corners of their fingernails. These users even ended up occasionally spreading the fungus to me and other non antibacterial users due to their compulsive wiping of antibacterial compounds onto steering wheels and other surfaces.

Your best protection is not to nuke your own protections and hope any bacteria die, but rather enhance your own systems. Vinegar rubbed onto the hands doesn’t remove your body’s protective oils, it also doesn’t cause the [drying and] cracking that alcohol based rubs do. Acidophilus is available in capsule form which can be opened and rubbed onto damp hands, acidophilus is a powerful microscopic security force that works in symbiosis with your body. I also had a policy of not using soap but spraying with dilute vinegar after rinsing my hands, sometimes rubbing in a few drops of olive oil, my hands stayed soft making my wife happy, the toughened skin stayed tough, and my skin protection layer stayed intact.

Day to day long periods of wearing of latex or nitirile gloves will cause your hands to crack and dry out. Since you will probably not encounter open puddles of body fluid by surprise cotton gloves, safety or eye glasses, and a cotton or better yet a HEPA face mask should help prevent acquiring any airborne hyper-communicative diseases if you need to go into a public place. Carry nitrile gloves and safety glasses in case you are called to provide first aid. Be sure to safely remove, bag, and wash any reusable protection before entering your home or vehicle.

Top attention should be placed on keeping your hands away from your face, especially the mouth and eyes. When I was a paramedic instructor I had the students hands dusted with UV-glowing powder. After class I brought out the black light, nearly everyone’s face showed that they had touched or itched, even knowing that they would get extra credit for coming up clean.
Unfortunately I never had time to set up a proper scientific study with control groups, but my experience, and those who followed my advice was generally positive, most of the antibacterial gel users had hard cracked hands with our resident black fungus in the cracks and occasional infection at the corners of the nails. Why didn’t the gel users stop? They really believed they were protecting themselves.
As for flu, if you keep yourself properly fed including dark leafy vegetables and citrus, don’t work yourself to exhaustion, keep yourself warm, clean, and dry and you should be much more resistant, even if this is finally the super flu that the government has been waiting for all these years. – David in Israel

JWR Adds: I agree that antibacterials are over-used on a day-to-day basis, but they are appropriate in the short term, when a true viral killer is stalking the streets. Many years ago, I heard that mixing 20% (by volume) of aloe vera liquid with typical methyl alcohol-based antibacterial “hand goop” will prevent drying skin. BTW, I’ve noticed that some commercial antibacterials are now sold with aloe added, although I wonder at what ratio.

In addition to disposable gloves, don’t overlook the need for glasses with side protection and disposable booties that can be shed and discarded just before you get in your car or truck. Disposable Tyvek suits are nice, but their use on a daily basis might be prohibitively expensive

SurvivalBlog Reader Survey: Conveniently Bypassed Areas

When working with my consulting clients, I often discuss channelization and lines of drift. Most major routes out of major cities will become very dangerous places to be in the event of a massive involuntary urban exodus. Imagine the situation WTSHTF in small towns on either side of the Snoqualmie Pass in Washington, or near I-80 across the Donner Pass in California, or on the Columbia River Gorge (that divides Oregon and Washington), or virtually every other stretch of interstate freeway that is within 150 miles of a metropolitan region. These channelized areas (also called “refugee lines of drift” by Military Police war game planners) should be studiously avoided.

Conversely, there are areas between lines of drift that will likely be bypassed by refugees and looters, due to poor access. (Constrained by small winding roads, water obstacles, intervening canyons, swamps, et cetera.) Some of these bypassed zones might actually be fairly close to urban areas. It is a dangerous gamble, but if for some reason you must live near a city, then I suggest that you carefully search for what may be a largely bypassed zone for your retreat and/or home. A few regions that may be bypassed come to mind, based on what I’ve seen in my travels and from recommendations by my associates. These include:

Portions of the Ouachita Mountains, west of Little Rock, Arkansas
Some islands in the Great Lakes region
Parts of Sabine County, south of Shreveport, Louisiana
The periphery of Harry S. Truman reservoir, 60 miles southeast of Kansas City, Missouri.
Portions of Dewey and Custer Counties (80 miles west of Oklahoma City.)
The Santa Rita Mountains, southeast of Tucson, Arizona
The Chiracaua Mountains, in the southeast corner of Arizona
The Mount Hamilton region, Alameda County, California. (East of San Jose, and south of Livermore.)
Parts of the San Joaquin River Delta, east of San Francisco, California
Some islands in the Puget Sound, Washington

Driving the back roads of your region will probably reveal other similar areas that might be bypassed.

I’d greatly appreciate getting input from readers via e-mail about other areas that are likely to be bypassed in the event of major crisis. The diverse readership of SurvivalBlog includes many folks that frequent out-of the way locales, including fish and game officers, foresters, utility workers, horse wranglers, surveyors, wildlife biologists, hunters, backcountry fishermen, backpackers, kayakers, NRCS employees, and even a few wildlife photographers.We can benefit from your insights. Please e-mail your suggestions, with “Bypassed Areas” in the message header. Thanks!

Economics and Investing:

Reader Greg C. found this: Treasury needs record $361 Billion April-June borrowing. (Greg’s comment: “And while we are all watching a little flu bug down south….”)

From G.N.C.: Roubini: ‘Suckers Rally’ In Stocks To Fade. “It’s not a true recovery. It’s just a bear-market rally, it’s a suckers’ rally.”

Steve in southern Oregon sent this item: Jim Rogers Isn’t Buying a U.S. Stock Recovery

Items from The Economatrix:

Chrysler Reaches Deal With Union, Fiat Before Deadline

Flu could boost government intervention further

From Michael Panzner’s blog: Evidence to the Contrary. “Despite all the evidence to the contrary, mainstream types keep insisting on two things: that what we are going through right now is a recession — albeit a severe one — and the worst is (or will soon be) over. Hogwash.”

Don Stott’s commentary on inflation (part 1)

Drugmaker shares rise on swine-flu outbreak

Odds ‘n Sods:

Rourke sent a link to an article in the Kansas City Star: Some stockpiling to prepare should times turn perilous

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Thanks to MVR for this: The Geomagnetic Apocalypse — And How to Stop It

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California Shooting Fair Closes for Lack of Ammo (Thanks to FloridaGuy for the link.)

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KAF flagged this: Hardtack, Once a Staple of Sailing Ships, Still Prospers in Hawaii. It has great shelf life, especially when vacuum packed. BTW, I believe that the author is mistaken when describing the “joke” origin of the term “Saloon Pilot” The saloon (or salon) is the social cabin of a ship. And pilot refers to pilot rations–food for use aboard ship.

Note from JWR:

Our SurvivalRealty spin-off site is continuing to flourish. There are some amazing retreat properties listed there, including the latest listing, a unique “castle” retreat in southwestern Oregon.