Note from JWR:

I was a disgusted to see the large number of U.S. flags being waved at Fourth of July celebrations that were marked “Made in China.” The bitter irony of this is almost indescribable, especially when you consider that a good portion of Chinese merchandise for the American consumer market comes from laogai (“Reform Through Labor”) prison factories. Do America a favor, and buy yourself an American-made flag. OBTW, I’ve chosen the “76” Battle of Bennington flag as the official “OPSEC-conscious” flag for SurvivalBlog readers, to identify themselves to fellow readers. And, also BTW, I just had one of my kids create Battle of Bennington Flag logo T-shirts, hats, mugs, and tote bags to add to my CafePress store, for the same purpose. (For those readers that consider it too “high profile” to wear a “SurvivalBlog” hat or T-shirt.) By wearing either a SurvivalBlog logo, or the Bennington Flag, you may providentially meet folks in your town that are fellow SurvivalBlog readers.



Letter Re: Some Thought on Dual-Fuel LPG Vehicles

Dear Jim,
I don’t know if this applies to folks in the US, but it may be something for UK readers to consider. My main vehicle is equipped with both petrol and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) tanks, and I will also be installing an LPG system on my secondary vehicle. There are two main advantages to this:

1. LPG is less than half the price of petrol, and although you get a third less mileage than you do using petrol, it still works out cheaper – in fact, in the UK, you can get the installation costs back in around 18 months. Also, burning LPG as fuel is cleaner and greener. I buy mine from the farm supplies company around the corner, which is even cheaper still.

2. With both petrol and LPG tanks full, I can drive around 550 miles (on English roads, which have far more bends and stop-starts than US roads) without refuelling, even though my main petrol tank is only 15 gallons. That’s a big advantage. Two things to note: always deplete the LPG first, as the vehicle needs petrol to start; and the amount of LPG you can get in the tank depends on the temperature; the warmer it is, the more the gas expands in the tank and the less liquid you can get into it, which will affect your mileage.

There is a minor disadvantage in that places that carry LPG are not as common as regular fuel stations, and sometimes they’re tucked away on industrial estates – sometimes they are a tank in a farmyard! We keep a log of where known ones are, and we have a [GPS] sat-nav with LPG stations listed on it for traveling further afield. Most of the places we use are unmanned, and require a special key to operate, so if power is still working, the pump will still give you LPG. Perhaps that disadvantage could be an advantage in a SHTF situation.

I’m looking to devise a method of filling the vehicle tank/running directly with bottled LPG as a further fall-back. Blessings, – Luddite Jean, in England

JWR Replies: There are road tax issues, but propane conversion kits are readily available in the US for older “pre-smog” aspirated gasoline-engine cars and trucks, as well as more expensive conversions for newer fuel-injected engine vehicles. Used conversion kits for pickup trucks, usually complete with fuel tanks often come up for sale on eBay. And a few complete and running propane vehicles are also sold on eBay Motors. Used utility company trucks that are propane-powered or even dual-fuel occasionally get sold at auction yards. Watch the auction listings closely. Once in a blue moon, you will find a dual-fuel vehicle that is also a four wheel drive. If you find one like that, that is in good shape at a reasonable price, then jump on it!

I highly recommend getting at least one propane-fuel vehicle, especially for any readers that already have a large propane tank at home.



Letter Re: Home Heating Oil Price Fluctuations–Time to Buy Low

Hi Jim,
Some older neighborhood houses [in the Pacific Northwest] have large oil tanks for heating under driveways, in basements, and buried under yards. Last winter, we saw our neighbors run dry during a rare 2-week snow/ice event that even chained fuel trucks couldn’t get around in. Portland and Seattle are notoriously under-prepared for ice/snow on roads, and actually have a “intentional neglect policy” of letting it melt without salt/de-icer rather than clearing the roads. Prepare to walk on uncleared pavement and stay around home!

If the predictions of temporary global oil over-supply are correct and fuel oil drops to around $1.50/gal, filling or topping-off a 600 or 1,000 gallon tank at that price would be a prudent thing to do with any extra money in the budget or even savings beyond the 6-month emergency reserve. Over-supply and clearance-pricing will be temporary as OPEC and others throttle back expensive drilling and pumping operations while the supply chain clears and prices return to “normal”.

Even if a person is a renter, having a full heating fuel tank is a good thing. Some rental contracts make heating the building and a maintaining a minimum heating fuel level a requirement. The fuel in the tank remains the property of the renter, minus the amount that was there when they moved in (or language in the rental contract), and can be sold to the landlord, next tenant, or sucked up and moved by an oil company truck for a fee.

Filling before heating season allows plenty of time for sediment to settle in the tank before drawing it into the in-line filter ahead of the burner. Anecdotal commentary by furnace service men indicates that furnaces that run on mostly-full tanks have fewer burner problems than those that use “bottom of the tank” fuel. Farm and trucking supply houses have “fuel polishing” additives/fungicides and pump/filter systems that keep tanks and fuel clean that might be safely added to a home storage tank system. Being able to fill a five-gallon can of stored/filtered Home Heating Oil from a valved-spout in the basement might be useful at some point in the future [, since Home Heating Oil can be substituted for diesel fuel, in extremis]. Cheers, – Karl in Portland, Oregon



Letter Re: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009

Dear James
Regarding Matt R.’s letter, I have been a survivalist and self-sufficient minded person most of my adult life. I live at my retreat in a prime western state. I have been reading your site for the last 18 months. I have learned some new useful information (never too late to teach old dog new tricks) from your site. I have also purchased quite a few supplies from your advertisers.

For most scenarios my home/retreat is a perfect place to be if the SHTF and I can just stay home. However I do not like to have all my eggs in one basket. I have three very different SHTF plans. One of my contingency plans is to get out of Dodge using aircraft. I keep a Cessna 206 in my back yard. My back up location is remote and has a place to land the plane. I was surprised by the pilot [in the subsequenty-posted letter] who so negatively responded of the use of aircraft as a get out of Dodge mode of transportation and strongly disagree with a lot of what he said.

I made my living for the last 30 years as a bush pilot, flying everything from Piper Super Cubs to DC-6s. I have flown over 12,500 hours as Pilot in command operating in the USA, Canada and Africa.

Cessna 172 Aircraft as a G.O.O.D. Vehicle
A 172 would not be my first choice in a plane to get out of dodge but the C-172 could carry the pilot along with one passenger and 300 pounds of gear nonstop for 400 miles. For some scenarios a C-172 or similar aircraft could be a life saver. [JWR Adds: I agree. It would be great if every pilot that reads SurvivalBlog owned a Pilatus Porter, but alas, we live in the real world, where budgets demand compromises. OBTW, one fairly inexpensive upgrade is having a spare set of extra large “Tundra” tires. These will greatly expand the improvised airfield possibilities of many high-wingers..]

I would not rely on any one plan to work if SHTF but for 1 of 3 contingency plans a small aircraft could be just the ticket. During a local disaster or to get to your well stocked retreat a C-172 or similar plane could save the day and be the best transportation option.

A 172 will land very short, a lot shorter than it can take off. In a worst case scenario for one trip to get to your retreat the pilot may not care if the plane ever takes off again. I have landed and taken off on thousands of beaches, roads, gravel bars, ridge tops and every other unimproved surface that you can think of. There are a few books, videos and specialized classes for bush flying that a pilot can learn from but it takes years to become proficient in off field bush flying. But even the average pilot has many options to land off airport. Just be honest with yourself and fly within your ability. The biggest hint I can give any pilot for off airport landings is check out the landing sites from the ground before attempting a landing. Fly over your retreat and look for possible landing sites, then land at the closest airport drive/walk to the prospective landing site, check the approach, escape routes etc. before you ever attempt to make a landing. If you are not 100% positive you can safely land do not attempt it and go find another spot. It would be better to walk an extra 10 miles to your retreat than be ½ mile from your retreat with a broken leg!

Auto Fuel in Aircraft
Auto fuel will work fine in any piston aircraft and most turbine powered aircraft for a limited time. Many Piston aircraft including 172s can legally use Auto fuel for private use. There are three issues with using auto fuel in piston aircraft.

First you need to make sure the auto fuel is clean and free from all water and particles. This is easy to do, just buy a MR Funnel (around $50) that has the micro screen filter in it and run the fuel throw it. If you have any concern let the fuel settle for ½ hour then run it through the filter a second time.

The second issue in using auto fuel is the engine life over the long term. Auto fuel will/may reduce the engine life of piston aircraft engines. How much will the life of the engine be reduced is hotly debated among experts. 0% -50% reduction in the life of the engine is the range the different experts claim. Piston aircraft engines are designed to go 1,400 to 2,000 hours between overhauls so even losing 50% of the engines remaining life should not affect a plane in a SHTF situation where you have to get out of Dodge.

The third issue is auto gas with ethanol is hard on aircraft hoses and gaskets and seals and will reduce the life of a bladder type fuel tanks. Again this is a long term affect and for a few flights and should not affect the safety of a flight. But if you let auto fuel with ethanol stay in the aircraft system it could cause big problems in certain aircraft.

To be legal the use of Auto Fuel in any aircraft the specific plane must have been approved for auto fuel and you must follow the STC. In a true emergency a few fights using clean auto fuel in a aircraft will have no affect. In many Third World countries that I have worked Avgas was not always available so we would occasionally be forced to run a tank or two of auto gas in our piston aircraft.. If you are using auto fuel in a plane that has 8.5-1 compression pistons keep the mixture a little rich and run the max power setting 5% below normal and you will be fine.

I operated DHC-2 Beavers and Piper PA-18 Super Cubs a on a steady diet of auto gas for years. The Piper Super Cub uses the same engine as most 172s. On one occasion I have even used auto fuel in a Twin Otter with PT-6 turbine engines.

Navigation
If the plan is to use a plane to get out of dodge the biggest problem pilots may face is navigation. These days most pilots rely on nav aids and never practice using only a chart (map), compass and stop watch. In the last 15 years I have not checked out one single commercial pilot or flight instructor that could use a map and compass well enough to pass my company’s standards.

If you plan to use a plane in a SHTF situation be prepared for all navigation aids including GPS to be off line. I suggest using a Map and compass and practice that a lot. In a SHTF situation if you count on nav aids you are very foolish. Most pilots that have learned to fly in the last 20 years are not able to navigate worth a hoot using only a Map and compass and are way too dependant on nav aids. I suggest anyone planning to use a plane in a SHTF situation pre fly the route as often as possible while times are good. Take a chart and highlight the whole route. Make notes as to what the actual compass heading is that you need to stay on course. Have a check point every 5 miles and learn to recognize them. Have the average time it takes between check points written on the chart. Fly this route at both altitude and low level as the check points will look totally different. Practice your route without nav aids so you get use to using the compass and stopwatch.

Avoiding Small Arms Fire
As for getting shot out of the air by small arms fire that is unlikely. The part of the world I now work our planes get shot at a lot by small arms fire. It is rare that a plane ever gets hit. If you are 5000’ above the ground small arms fire will not hit you. The danger is the climb out and the descent. A very steep spiral or figure 8 descent will drastically reduce your chances of getting hit. A power off setting during a descent is very quiet and will not attract attention from very far. It can be hard on the cylinders because of shock cooling but in a SHTF situation do you really care.

The most vulnerable time to get hit by small arms fire is takeoff and climb out. The trick here is to wait for a clear night and perfect VFR conditions. Take off early morning just before first light so you will be at altitude just as it is getting light. People with small arms cannot hit what they cannot see so if it is a SHTF situation remember to leave all the aircraft lights off.

Another technique that can be used is to stay as close to the ground as possible ([as little as] 25 feet AGL) [in flat country] for the flight. This limits exposure and does not give people on the ground much time to react, locate and fire at you. Using the low flying method you must never fly near the same route twice as the second time you fly that route people on the ground will recognize the sound know a plane is coming and will be ready. A second low level run is far more likely to get you shot. I do not recommend this for most pilots and do not attempt the low level flying unless you have been trained for low level operations.

James, Please Keep Up The Good Work! You are providing a fantastic service and giving a tremendous amount of good sound advice. – Old Dog



Economics and Investing:

TJ Marta tells it like it is on Tech Ticker: Bailouts for Everyone, But Who’s Going to Rescue Uncle Sam? (Thanks to Trent for the link.)

KAF sent this: Swiss banks drop U.S. clients due to UBS case

Greg C. and GG both sent this: US lurching towards ‘debt explosion’ with long-term interest rates on course to double

Items from The Economatrix:

Oil Falls 4% on Economic Recovery Concerns

Stocks Mixed Amid Conflicting Economic News

Dollar Discomfort Thrust Onstage for Italy Summit

As Retailers Cut Back, Cities Confront “Ghostboxes”

US Service Industries Contract at Slowest Pace in Nine Months

BofA Bad Loans Top $7 Billion

India Will Borrow Record $93 Billion to Fund Budget; Stocks, Rupee Decline

World Stocks, Oil Down Amid Waning Recovery Hopes

FDIC Faces Tough Balancing Act as it Deals with Wave of US Bank Failures
“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Thursday proposed new policies that could chill private-equity interest in buying struggling and failed banks.”



Odds ‘n Sods:

Eric S. spotted this: Grow 100 lbs. of Potatoes in Four Square Feet: How To

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MacLean’s (Canada’s most popular magazine) reviewed One Second After by William R. Forstchen: So your bank account’s wiped out; Given our massive debt load, this fictional apocalyptic scenario’s not looking that bad.

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DD spotted this: Live off the land — in the city; Wild greens, mushrooms, fruit and even fish and game can be harvested in America’s urban jungles. Dandelion salad, anyone? Or some batter-fried squirrel? That is ingenious, but if and when the Schumer Hits the Fan, but even less than 1% of the urban population would rapidly decimate any available wildlife within walking distance.

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From KAF: Knoxville-Based Tradingo.com Wants Your Stuff; Web entrepreneurs TJ McNamara and Scott Scheinbaum hope to turn online bartering into a moneymaker. Can they pull it off?



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Be not deaf to the sound that warns!
Be not gull’d by a despot’s plea!
Are figs of thistles or grapes of thorns?
How should a despot set men free?
Form! form! Riflemen form!
Ready, be ready to meet the storm!
Riflemen, riflemen, riflemen form!” – Afred Tennyson, “The War”



The Nascent Depression: Be Ready to Barter and Adopt the Rhodesian View

I receive several e-mails each day from readers asking whether the currently-unfolding economic depression will be inflationary or deflationary, whether it will last long, and whether or not the US Dollar will be supplanted by a new currency. My answer is simple: “All of the above.” Back in early 2008, I warned that a depression with simultaneous inflation and deflation was possible. As I’ve mentioned several times in my blog, here in the US we are likely to see a continuation of the current gradual deflation followed by a period of mass currency inflation. Plan accordingly.

Try to start looking at prices in terms relative value. In a world of hyperinflation where everyone is a millionaire, absolute prices area almost meaningless, but watching relative prices and values is crucial. For example, a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas have sold for roughly the same amount, since the late 1970s. This outlook on prices is what I call The Rhodesian View. To explain: Those who have lived in Zimbabwe (formerly Rhodesia) since before the change of government eventually learned to adjust their conceptions of “price” and “value”. This new outlook was necessitated by the destruction of the national currency by Comrade Mugabe. His hopelessly inept and horribly corrupt government embarked on a systematic looting of the country, which included mass inflation that later became hyperinflation. At one recent point, the Zimbabwean dollar was inflating so rapidly that it lost half of its value each few hours. (An annual inflation rate of more than 200 million percent.) Similarly, nine years of hyperinflation and multiple currency recalls in Argentina had the net effect that to buy what had cost 1 Peso in 1983 would have cost the equivalent of 100,000,000,000 Pesos in 1992.

After having been accustomed to a very gradually eroding dollar for so long, it will be difficult for may people to adopt the Rhodesian View. Once inflation sets in, nearly all assets denominated in dollars will suffer horribly. This will be particularly true for dollar deposit accounts, and pensions. Those folks that don’t adapt quickly will get blind-sided by inflation. Some investments like stocks will be re-valued and still retain some value because of the intrinsic value of the underlying assets (such as company’s inventory, equipment, land, and facilities). Thus, they might be able to “keep up with inflation”, at least in the early stages of an inflationary spiral. But most other dollar-denominated investments will be wiped out in a mass inflation.

Now lets’s look at the prospects for mass inflation in the US: Say, for example, that in 2007 your house’s value peaked at $350,000, but on paper it has subsequently lost $100,000 in value. (So it is now valued at $250,000, even though your property tax assessment might erroneously still show its value somewhere north of $300,000.) Fear not! Mass inflation will “restore” the dollar value of your house in just a few years. But the bad news is that shortly thereafter, inflation will be galloping along so rapidly that $250,000 may buy just one typical automobile. And then perhaps a year after that, $250,000 will only buy you a bicycle. And then perhaps less than another year later, $250,000 will only buy you a loaf of bread. Be ready, folks, and adopt the Rhodesian View of economic reality. Keep informed, be flexible, and shelter you assets in barterable tangibles! Granted, we may see no more than 20% inflation in the next few years, but the snowballing effects of mass inflations are impossible to predict. Once the psychology of double-digit or triple-digit inflation sets in–namely the anticipation of continued inflation–it becomes virtually self-perpetuating, often continuing beyond a corrective change of monetary policy, (Ben Bernanke may shout “stop help presses” (and raise the prime rate and restore the bank reserve requirements), but the paper chase may continue for many months.

I’ve said this often in SurvivalBlog: The time has come to begin sheltering part of your net worth in practical tangibles. These include firearms, common caliber ammunition, precious metals, full-capacity firearms magazines, high quality tools, and productive farm or ranch land that can double as a survival retreat. Once inflation kicks in, prices set in dollars will become almost meaningless, and saving “money” will become a pitiful joke, as the dollar’s value melts in the fiery furnace of inflation.

Start thinking in terms of relative value, potential usefulness/productivity, ounces, and gallons, instead of dollar digits.

Get used to bartering. It is a valuable skill that will become crucial in the next decade. Practice barbering now, rather than after a crisis begin. (Learn from your mistakes now, while the consequences are small and not life threatening, rather than later, when the consequences could be much greater.)

Develop savvy about precious metals. Buy the references and tools you’ll need be able to spot fakes. Practice calculating relative values. You must get handy with a pocket calculator and some standard references. (I have several listed later in this post.) For example, you should be able to calculate the values of a one ounce silver “trade dollar” round versus pre-1965 silver quarters versus a box of of .45 ACP 230-grain ball ammunition. And, with just the knowledge of the day’s closing New York spot prices for silver and gold, you should be able to quantify the number of 90% silver dimes that would equal the value of 10 gallons of gasoline or the gold contained in a 1/2-ounce Gold Canadian Maple Leaf or a 2-Franc French “Rooster” or a Swiss Vrenelli. Does this sound daunting to you? If so, then you need to study and practice!

As you build up your stockpile of barter goods, you must simultaneously build your knowledge base about barter goods–especially ammunition, guns, fuel, canned foods, and precious metals–since those will all be sought-after, in a monetary crisis. Assemble a reference library that can serve you both for establishing the authenticity of goods, and for establishing their relative values. Be sure to print out some useful data and weight conversion formulas, and keep those pages in a reference binder. In my estimation, if you don’t already have your own copies of the following books at home, then you are behind the power curve:

In closing, remember that it will take time and practice to get accustomed to dealing in a barter economy, and thinking in terms of real value rather than “dollars”. In times when dollars are like grains of sand in an hourglass, tangibles will represent a fixed yardstick. Take the time to practice bartering now, when the stakes are low. Start attending gun shows, coin shows, antique shows, and flea markets. And be sure to gather those key reference books now, while they are still readily available. Someday, you may be very glad that you did!



Two Letters Re: Prefabricated Garden Sheds as Instant Shelters and Storage Spaces for Retreats

JWR:
Just a comment on the bit about the sheds for bug-out retreats.
I have designed plans for a number of such shed sizes, as well as living quarters for larger barns.

A couple things to mention, one, is that if you do a sloped shed roof on your shed instead of a peaked roof…from the air, it looks like a loafing shed for your critters, this is in case it is in a
more rural farm like area, instead of timber country. Another thing, the window problem: On our barn (which we are building living quarters in right now) the front door and a nice sized window can be covered by using a large barn-type slider that covers the [man] door and window. And or you can use regular dutch doors or livestock slider doors to make it look like an outbuilding. We have two windows, one for the bathroom that is actually behind the top half of a dutch door and then the front door and window that is covered, when need be, by the barn slider.
I actually designed a 16′ x 24′ shed, that is really nice We hope to build it out in the middle of our fields. With a simple livestock water trough at the back of the roof line to catch run off, from a distance it will look very much like a livestock shelter. [A “loafing shed.”]

And if you know someone who has a portable mill, you can have boards cut that are actually 2″ or 3″ thick to use like board and batten. This will help to make your shed look simple but pretty safe from bullets. At least if they are coming at you from a distance. You can go another step further and build this shed over a concrete root cellar or a square concrete cistern that can be accessed through the floor of the shed. A ladder down through the top and with all the options they build in them for knock outs for pipes (in this case vents) they can be a pretty nice underground bunker of sorts.

We read your site regularly to keep up on what is being written but hidden in obscure papers. You guys are providing a great service. Keep it up! – Toni in the state of Washington

James Wesley:
I built many quality sheds (for my business) years ago. It is much easier to build a shed in four foot (or less) panels in your shop and then transport the panels to your retreat. It takes a little planning to do this, but in this way just two people can assemble the whole thing in a day, and transporting the shed usually takes just a 3/4 ton, long bed pickup [rather than a large truck.]

In many states you can build a shed up to 200 square feet without a permit. 12’x16′ is a common larger size, but 10’x20′ is much simpler to build (that 2 extra feet wider is a pain with roof and trusses). I recommend that you use deck screws to screw the panels together, including the cap plate. Build your roof trusses in your shop too. See Backwoods Home magazine for a really excellent article on how to build trusses and a really strong building.

Build the floor system on site, not as panels. Build the wall panels so that your full 4×8 sheets overhang on floor system by 4″ and 1.5″ on the top for your cap plate (ties it all together for strength). Offset your 4×8 panel 3/4″ to the left side to keep the seams centered on a stud. This keeps it weather tight, if you caulk. Make sure your roof overhangs at least 6″ (12″ is better) on all 4 sides or rainwater will get in.

Cut your studs to 87.5″. The 96″ stud minus 4″ (bottom overhang) minus 1.5″ (bottom plate) minus 1.5″ top plate minus 1.5″ cap plate = 87.5″. Make sure your cap plate is one piece of lumber for each side to tie the panels together on top. Take the scraps with you to your retreat, they will be handy.

Every panel uses one extra stud. It is well worth it. For Heaven’s sake, make sure the floor is level and square, and that every panel is square on its own! This is the difference between a lot of fun building, and a disaster. – Brian W.





Economics and Investing:

Sterling Crisis Looms as UK Unraveling Points to Budget Cuts (Thanks to Heidi for the link.)

Tom G. flagged this: Unwinding at AIG Prompts Pasciucco to Ponder System Failure

Frank S. mentioned this grand understatement: Biden: ‘We Misread How Bad the Economy Was’

Items from The Economatrix:

Another Wave of Foreclosures is Poised to Strike [That is hardly a news flash for SurvivalBlog readers!]

Obama Expands Housing Rescue: Six Things to Know

Joel Skousen: Cap and Trade Bad For a Sick Economy

US Stocks Slide in Dow’s Worst Drop Since April on Jobs Data

With Economy Down, Cities Growing (Rather Than Suburbs)


Gimme A Break Dept: Bailout For World’s Oldest Profession
Amsterdam considering bank, credit help for prostitutes

European Stocks Decline for Third Week in Longest Losing Streak Since March

Dollar Rises vs. Euro on Signs Economic Rebound is Faltering

TheStreet.com: “They Just Don’t Get AIG”
Media critic slays The Times for ignoring a big AIG promise

Glut of Oil Could Push Gas Prices Below $2

Current Recession is a Severe Credit Bust of Depression-Era Magnitude

Inflationary Crack-up Boom Has Commenced in the G-7 Economies

US Economy Heading For Japan of the ’90s or Argentina 2002?

Hyperinflation or Depressionary Deflation–Which is More Probable?



Odds ‘n Sods:

The latest extended-length trailer for Roland Emmerich’s new 2012 movie looks more than a bit over the top. Yes, it is another popcorn-munching special effects-laden blockbuster. But that is not surprising, since Emmerich is the man that produced The Day After Tomorrow.

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Reader GG mentioned some recent commentary on “the big picture”, via the Dilbert syndicated cartoon strip.

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Also from GG: Tent revival; More families than ever are camping for vacation at state and national parks

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Jon in Iraq sent us an article datelined Madison, Wisconsin: Too many mouths, not enough food



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Thus the men of democratic times require to be free in order to procure more readily those physical enjoyments for which they are always longing. It sometimes happens, however, that the excessive taste they conceive for these same enjoyments makes them surrender to the first master who appears. The passion for worldly welfare then defeats itself and, without their perceiving it, throws the object of their desires to a greater distance. There is, indeed, a most dangerous passage in the history of a democratic people. When the taste for physical gratifications among them has grown more rapidly than their education and their experience of free institutions, the time will come when men are carried away and will lose all self-restraint at the sight of the new possessions that they are about to obtain. In their intense and exclusive anxiety to make a fortune they lose sight of the close connection that exists between the private fortune of each and the prosperity of all. It is not necessary to do violence to such a people in order to strip them of the rights they enjoy; they themselves willingly loosen their hold. The discharge of political duties appears to them to be a troublesome impediment which diverts them from their occupations and business. If they are required to elect representatives, to support the government by personal service, to meet on public business, they think they have no time, they cannot waste their precious hours in useless engagements; such ideal amusements are unsuited to serious men who are engaged with the more important interests of life. These people think they are following the principle of self-interest, but the idea they entertain of that principle is a very crude one; and the better to look after what they call their own business, they neglect their chief business, which is to remain their own masters….By such a nation [a wealthy, self-absorbed one] the despotism of faction is not less to be dreaded than the despotism of an individual. When the bulk of the community are engrossed by private concerns, the smallest parties need not despair of getting the upper hand in public affairs. At such times it is not rare to see on the great stage of the world, as we see in our theaters, a multitude represented by a few players, who alone speak in the name of an absent or inattentive crowd; they alone are in action, while all others are stationary; they regulate everything by their own caprice; they change the laws and tyrannize at will over the manners of the country; and then men wonder to see into how small a number of weak and worthless hands a great people may fall.” – Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America , Vol. 2, 140–4



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day OnPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Three Rules for Persuading the Sheeple, by Tall Sally

This article could also be titled: “How to Convince Friends and Family to Prepare for Economic Collapse.” One of the greatest problems for the prepper is getting family and friends on board without alienating them or terrifying them into inaction. With this article, I hope to use my experience to show you how to gently and persuasively warn friends and family about the coming economic crisis. I have used this approach with several people and found it to be successful.

I am writing this article now because I believe that now is the time to approach your sheeple about prepping if you have not done so already. More and more people are noticing that something is wrong with our economy, and many of them are probably ready to hear about preparedness, but only if you approach them from the right direction. My goal is to help you find a good approach.

Why should you listen to me? Well, in my previous job, I was a corporate educator at a large mortgage bank. I learned two things from that job: how to watch my income spiral down into oblivion along with the entire mortgage industry, and how to explain complex concepts in simple ways. You don’t need my help to watch your income spiral into oblivion, so instead I will teach you how to explain complex concepts.

Before we get started, let’s emphasize a few basic rules that educators follow. I will elaborate on these rules in this article, and then I will show you how to put them into practice.

Three Basic Rules of Persuasion
Rule 1: Take it slow.
Rule 2: Keep it simple and sane (KISS).
Rule 3: Relate it back to their lives.

Now let’s expand these concepts a little bit.

Rule 1: TAKE IT SLOW
Are you sure that you want to have this conversation? There are schools of thought that say you should never mention your preps to anyone. Think this through carefully; otherwise you may have 45 family members knocking on your door next winter. I considered this before mentioning it to anyone; however, I don’t think life is worth living if everyone I love dies, especially if I could have warned them. Besides, my nearest relative lives a five hour drive away from me. They’ll have a long walk to pester me.

Define your audience. Think ahead and focus your efforts on the most level-headed, trustworthy, “solid” people that you know. This has several purposes. First of all, such people are more likely to listen to you and believe you. Secondly, other people will trust that person; once you persuade them,so they can subsequently persuade two or three other people.

Establish essential concepts and build on them. That’s how adults learn. You see it in this very article; I have given you three simple rules and now I am expanding on them.

Rule 2: KEEP IT SIMPLE AND SANE (KISS)
Don’t expect too much, too fast. Remember, that some folks’ idea of “preparing” is to buy an extra six-pack on Saturday because the liquor stores are closed on Sundays. Take it easy; my experience is that prepping is a daunting task to most people and if you give them too much information you will spook them. Once they’re spooked, it’s hard to get them to listen at all.

Climb down from the crazy tree. No, I am not saying that you are crazy for being a prepper. I am saying that most people think that preppers are crazy. Your goal here is to persuade and convince. I would never have convinced my auntie successfully if I had mentioned my gas masks or my plans for a fallout shelter. Keeping your mouth shut about these things is also good OPSEC. Your goal is to sound just a little bit more prepared than them: “Terry and I bought a few cans extra cans of Spaghetti-Os last week…”

Keep language plain and simple. Imagine that you’re explaining all this to a 12-year-old. Use simple words and concepts. Adults learn better that way. Complicated language makes them feel threatened, and they tune it out.

Keep concepts plain and simple, too. The novice trainer’s most common mistake is to dump a bunch of information on the learner and believe that “since they heard it, they know it.” That’s not how adults learn. We learn through repetition of basic concepts.

Rule 3: WITH A RELATION
Relate it to their life, not yours. Imagine that you go on two blind dates. The first person talks about themselves non-stop all through dinner. You can barely get a word in edgewise. The second person engages you in interesting conversation and hangs on your every word. Which person do you call back?

You call back the person that talks with you, not at you. The same is true in persuasion. You are telling them these things because you love them. Listen closely to how they respond, like the loving person that you are.

Use concrete examples that matter to them. Which of these two approaches is more captivating?
“A loaf of bread might cost you $20 next fall.”

or,

“The Federal Reserve was established in 1913, as the central banking authority of the United States. The Federal Reserve is a monopolistic cartel of bankers, and they established a new kind of currency called fiat currency, which is unconstitutional. Now, fiat currency is basically just paper backed up by law. It doesn’t mean anything…”

Obviously, the short sentence that relates to their life is better than the ten-minute history lecture on something they barely understand and don’t care about.

Now Let’s Practice.
With these rules in mind, practice a typical conversation. I have provided a script below, but in reality you don’t want a one-sided script; you want a conversation. Talk with them, not at them.

Also, notice that each part of the conversation is related to one of our three rules.

Rule 1: START SLOW…

Start with Pleasantries. (This establishes a sense of ease and rapport.) “Hi Aunt Bea, it’s been awhile since we talked. Yes, Terry and I are doing well. We went hiking last weekend and really enjoyed it. How are things in Mayberry?”

Explain why you are calling them. (This gets their attention and prepares them for what’s next.) “I’m calling you because I have something serious to talk about, and I know you’re level-headed and you’re likely to listen to me.”

Establish your credibility. (Adults want to know why they are listening to you. Who are you, anyway?) “As you know, I was laid off from that big mortgage bank awhile back, and when the bank started having trouble I started paying really close attention to the financial blogs. I’ve been reading them for awhile…”

Establish the credibility of your sources. “… and I’ve been starting to see some news leak into the mainstream financial press, such as Yahoo Finance…” (This is true.)

Rule 2: KISS…
Explain the problem. Keep it simple and keep your language sane.
“A lot of credible sources are saying that there may be rapid inflation starting this fall. Nobody knows for sure, but it could be a little or it could be very high.It might take $100 just buy a loaf of bread. There are also rumors of a possible bank holiday this fall. The phrase ‘bank holiday’ is really a misnomer. It’s when they close the banks for a few days or a few weeks, and you can’t withdraw cash to buy food and pay bills. They might do it if they needed to fix a problem with the banking system. This is harder to confirm than the inflation, but I think it’s wise to prepare for the possibility.”

Let’s analyze the above paragraph using our KISS rule.
I kept it to two main points. There are a million things to prepare for; you need to decide what the most convincing, urgent, easily-prepped-for problem is and stick to it. I chose economic collapse because it’s in the news right now, and it gets people’s attention.
I kept my language approachable, and when there was a new term I explained it simply. I didn’t mention any off-the-wall theories or rants about the Federal Reserve. The bank holiday is a rumor but well within the realm of possibility; but I emphasize that the inflation is NOT a rumor. It is a credible possibility being discussed in mainstream financial publications.
I didn’t just say “There’s going to be an economic collapse.” I gave them a concrete example (the $100 bread loaf) that would relate to their lives. And speaking of relating it to their lives…

Rule 3: RELATE…
Suggest some ways to prepare. “There are things you can do to prepare for this, Aunt Bea, and it doesn’t have to be really complicated. You can take some money out of the bank, and that’s good to have on hand anyway in case of emergencies like earthquakes. I recommend keeping about a month’s worth of cash on hand, if you can. You can also buy some of those old quarters and dimes… you know, from before 1965, when they used to make them out of silver. [Take a little time here to explain why junk silver is good in times of inflation. Rawles has some great articles. Also explain that it can be purchased at local coin shops, and explain the current cost.] And of course, since food will get more expensive later, it might not hurt to buy a little extra food now.”

Take a moment to consider: Why would you start by talking about cash, then talk about silver, then talk about food?
First of all, these are all simple, non-threatening recommendations that anyone can follow. You want to start with the easiest step and go from there. Let’s go back to our three rules:
Slow:
Start slow by talking about the cash first, because everyone knows how to get money from the bank.
KISS:
Talk about silver next, because you can emphasize that they can keep it simple and spend just a few dollars, if they want. (In other words, right now they can buy one silver dime for about $1.50.) If you explain it well, this idea is unthreatening and easy to do. It’s also “more sane” than telling them to buy gold because many people are familiar with the old silver coins.
Relate:
Mention the food last because to some people in your audience, stocking up on food immediately rings the “crazy survivalist” bell. It’s good to put it in context of a wise financial decision related to the other steps they’re taking.

Ask them to talk to their family. This relates the whole conversation back to their lives. It makes them feel less alone, and it impresses on them that we’re all in this together, etc. It’s also the charitable thing to do. The more people that prepare, the better. I have also used this moment to ask them to help me persuade others (my mom, my grandparents, etc) since two voices are more credible than one.

Thank them. This lightens up the conversation and makes it sane. “Thanks for listening to me about this. I’m sorry to bring up all this gloom and doom. I just really care about you guys.”

Continue the conversation according to your audience. Tailor your spiel to the person you’re talking to. Think back to the three rules that I mentioned earlier (slow; KISS; relate). Below are profiles of three of my favorite aunties. How would you apply those rules to your conversation with them?

Auntie A is threatened by the idea of prepping. She will barely talk about it.

Auntie B says she has a gun, and she also says she wants to start a garden.

Auntie C lives in a big, dangerous city and she will not move (cannot afford to and has lived there all her life). However, she is otherwise on board and even excited that someone finally mentioned it, and she’d like to read some online articles. She’s worried about her antiques business in this economy.

Take a moment to think about your approach, and then read on to learn how I approached each of my aunties.

With Auntie A, I took it slow. I will be lucky if she will buy a week’s worth of spaghetti; I didn’t push her any further than the script above. I moved on to talk about the weather or whatever. I can always talk to her about it again later.

With Auntie B, I followed the KISS rule. I suggested getting a little extra ammo for her gun and enough seeds for her garden. These are simple things that she can do tomorrow, and they’re not that scary. I did not say outright that ammo and seeds will be unavailable after the collapse, because that sounds insane.

With Auntie C, I related it back to her life. Since she’s web-savvy, I pointed her to a web site that discusses prepping to live in the city during an economic collapse (FerFAL’s web site). (To “keep it sane” I mentioned that his site is “geared toward American survivalists” and “I don’t like reading it because it’s scary” but “if you can get past all that, it’s worth looking at.”) Because she mentioned that her antiques business will probably not prosper, I also pointed her to posts about how people make money in the city in hard times

In conclusion…

This can be the only conversation you have with your loved ones, or it can be the first in a series. However you approach it, remember these proverbs:
“You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink.” and, “A prophet has no honor in his own country.”

In other words, no matter how simply and gently you explain the coming collapse, there will be some that prepare and some that won’t. You don’t have any control over that. Your only duty is to try to gently persuade them in a way that they can understand.

Final quiz: What are the three basic rules of persuasion?

The Memsahib Adds: Before approaching a relative or friend with the topic of preparedness, consider: Is there some aspect of prepping that would fulfill one of their long-held desires, or perhaps even a childhood fantasy? Have they always wanted to own a horse? Be a master chef? Live like a Native American? Live off the land like a Mountain Man? Be a doctor? Be an herbal medicinalist? Be an explorer? Be a teacher? Own a large acreage? Be a park ranger? Sail the seven seas? Be a philanthropist? Be a missionary? There are aspects of preparedness that can fit into all of these desires. So, in effect, you can make prepping fun and fulfilling for them. When I was growing up, I always loved baby lambs and wanted to own sheep. I was also disappointed that I didn’t grow up on a farm, as my mother had. (I was raised in the suburbs.) Our path to preparedness was a great excuse to buy some acreage, and raise a flock of sheep. This led to buying spinning wheels and a loom, learning how to card, spin and dye wool, learning how to knit, how to felt wool, raising angora rabbits, and raising angora goats. This in turn eventually led to us getting dairy goats, and later a dairy cow. So all of this fulfilled a childhood fantasy of having my own farm. Thus, prepping felt rewarding, and in no way did I feel threatened or did it seem like I was living under a dark storm cloud. When I served my first loaf of bread that I had made with eggs from my chickens, and wheat that I had sown and later hand-ground, the rooster in our barnyard couldn’t crow any louder than I could! My grandmother would have been proud of me. Talk about heavy gravitas, when bringing such loaves to a church potluck! (But even just brining muffins with berries that you grew yourself, or picked out in the wild can give the same sense of accomplishment.) It was much the same for me when I finished making my first sweater with wool from sheep that I had helped deliver. I had shorn the wool, carded it, dyed it, spun it and knitted it–bringing the sweater all to its final form. What a lot of work, but what great fun!

My favorite way to introduce this topic to other women is through teaching “heritage crafts”. The homemaking skills of our pioneer ancestors are something that most women–even city women–can relate to. Whether it is canning, gardening, small livestock, sewing, cooking, baking, knitting, leather-working, candle making, soap-making , et cetera. I have done all of these, and and have enjoyed passing on these skills to neighbors, friends, and even my nieces and nephews. Perhaps your local church, 4H club, scout troop, PTA, homeschooling club, or public school would be open to having you teach a class or put on a demonstration.

I found that the more I learned about one preparedness topic, the more that I wanted to learn about related topics. For example, when I was raising rabbits, it was fun learning how many different ways I could prepare rabbit meat dishes. And when I was dairying, it was fun to branch out into making yogurt, soft cheese, and milk soap. With God’s providential guiding hand, your friends will each find a special preparedness niche, that will benefit their families, and in turn get them excited about many more aspects of preparedness.

A note to husbands, fathers, brothers, and uncles: Please do not alienate your female friends and relatives from preparedness by “assigning” them a prepping specialty. Instead, let them pick their own, to suit their particular disposition and interests. By letting women choose our own areas of expertise, it gives us the feeling of being in control of our lives in an uncertain world. Encourage and nurture their interests, but don’t dictate them!

Part of getting prepared is recognizing the fact that some aspects of preparedness are more “fun” than others. And, correspondingly, what constitutes “fun” for one individual is not necessarily considered fun by another. How many men wouldn’t blink an eye at buying a $700 SIG or a $1,500 FAL, but get anxious about “the expense” when they see their wives looking through a Louet or LeClerc catalog? What is needed is a well-rounded approach to gathering logistics, tools, and skills. There is much more to preparedness than just “guns and groceries.” Get prepared, but don’t obsess over all the gloom-n-doom “what ifs?” You should instead take a well-rounded approach that will provide a family with educational activities and lots of fun, all while actively learning, preparing, and cross-training. One way to ease your spouse into a preparedness mindset is by encouraging her to get involved with a the local fiber guild, 4H club, or farmer’s market co-op.

Tall Sally is absolutely right about going slowly. Get your friends and relatives into preparedness one small step at a time. Encourage them to get prepared, by playing off of their pre-existing interests, fantasies, and hobbies.