Economics and Investing:

Brendon sent this: “Zombie suppliers” haunt manufacturing sector

From H.H.: Italian banks may take ham and wine as collateral

Cut my pay … please! As the number of layoffs mount, more workers are ready and willing to take significant pay cuts to find employment. (Thanks to Ben M. for the link.)

From DD: Small retailers feel sharper pinch; Cuts in consumer spending hit mom-and-pop shops hard

Reader KAF spotted this: As Banks Repay Bailout Money, U.S. Sees a Profit

U.S. Stocks Fall After China Markets Trigger Global Sell-Off

Damon flagged this: Daily Commodities Fundamentals: China Takes An Overnight Plunge, Oil Follows (Gold down, silver up.)

Also from Damon come this piece in The Australian: China’s liking for silver is good news for miners

I found these three bits of analysis posted over at Gold-Eagle.com:

Puru Saxena: Peak Oil – Supply Data Doesn’t Lie

Chris Laird: Prelude To Stagflation? Transition From Crisis To Stagflation

Jim Willie: US Bank Enemies At The Gates



Odds ‘n Sods:

Norman in England recommended this article about a solo documentary filmmaker’s experiment in the Yukon: Fifty days and nights in the wilderness. Note that even in warm weather he reached the psychological breaking point in just seven weeks. This adds credence to my assertion that going solo, playing “Batman in the Boondocks” wouldn’t work for 99.9% of the population. Please make realistic plans, and establish a well-stocked and fairly self-sufficient retreat. It takes faith and friends to survive!

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From DD: Continued l.os Angeles fires double in size. And, speaking of the fires, here is a YouTube link from KAF: Fires Over Los Angeles – Time Lapse

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GG sent us this from The Wall Street Journal: Home Barbering Grows in Recession, With Hairy Results

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Home Birth with Midwife as Safe as Hospital Birth: Study. (Thanks to KAF for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“They didn’t have rounds for the Buhnder, but we’re ammoed up pretty good. Got a discount too, on account of my intimidating manner.” – Adam Baldwin as Jayne Cobb, Firefly Episode 12, “The Message”. Screenplay by Joss Whedon and Tim Minear



Letter Re: Old Boy Scout and Girl Scout Handbooks are Available Online

Sir,
For those who don’t have an “old” copy of the Boy Scout Handbook, the 1911 edition is available from Project Gutenberg in a variety of electronic formats.

Also, they have the Girl Scout Handbook, 1920 edition.

There is some overlap with the Boy Scouts handbook, but also much that is unique, especially in regard to care of the home, growing a garden, storing food, outdoor and indoor cooking, and a good section on first aid and home health care. Regards, – Andrew H.

JWR Replies: For any families with teenagers, or pre-teens, I recommend getting hard copies of these books:

(BTW, most adults also find these books fascinating reading, and useful references.)



Letter Re: Stockpiling Dimes?

Sir,
I have a question what is the metal makeup of dimes [US 10-cent coins]. I am saving the nickels [US 5-cent coins, as suggested in SurvivalBlog, since 2007]. I have a small amount of dimes and was wondering if they are worth saving? – Curtis M.

JWR Replies: Stockpiling dimes would not be wise. See the base metal value data at Coinflation,com. As of Saturday, August 29th, the base metal value of a post-1964 dime is $0.01704, (less than 2 cents) but the acquisition cost fro each coin is the face value of ten cents.

Meanwhile, the base metal value of a post-1945 nickel, is 0.04811, but the acquisition cost is just five cents–nearly its actual base metal worth. So it is quite realistic to stockpile these as an inflation hedge. Unlike pennies, (which require sorting, and it requires a substantial investment to recoup the cost of buying a sorting machine), the nickel is the only other commonly-circulating coin that has a metallic value near its face value, so I’m steadfast in my advice on saving them. That is, at least until the inevitable new debased issue is released, whereupon it would become difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff.

For someone with time on their hands–such as a retiree–I recommend searching through rolls of half-dollars, from your local bank. The US 50 cent pieces made in and before 1964 are 90% silver (now worth about 12x face value), and those made from 1965 to 1970 are 40% silver (now worth about 5x face value.) Also, those that are dated 1970 have an even greater numismatic value, since it is a “rare date”, as they were only issued in mint sets and proof sets. Although it is not very common, once in a while later-date rare proof coins, which are also 90% silver will slip into circulation. These are easy to spot, because of their distinctive high contrast appearance. By the way, after you have done your “date picking”, when you re-roll the coins to return to the bank, make sure that you mark the rolls in a distinctive way (such as applying a ring of black magic marker), so you can avoid searching through the same roll twice.



Two Letters Re: Precious Metal and Base Metal Composition of Foreign Coins?

Mr Rawles,s
My family really enjoys and has benefited from reading your blog. Thank you for putting together such a quality reference site. One topic I have not seen discussed (even after a search of the archives) is whether or not pre-1960s foreign silver coins have any value. As a child, I received a large number of European coins from my grandfather (circa 1920s to 1930s), many of which are silver and a few appear to be bronze. While they have little value to collectors based on condition (I have kept them for sentimental reasons), I would assume that silver is silver and they have some base value. Do you have any opinions or advice regarding using these in a SHTF situation or a suggestion for a reference I could use for more information regarding their silver content? Thank you, – J.S.

J.W.R.;
I was wondering if you could point me to a source for determining the silver content by year of Canadian coins and if any of them would be worth hanging on to. Thanks in advance! – Montana Marty

JWR Replies: I recommend getting copies of both the 2009 Standard Catalog of World Coins 1901-2000 and the 2010 Standard Catalog of World Coins 2001-Date reference books. Composition data on Canadian coins is also available at these web pages:

Ken Polsson’s Page

Canadian Nickels – Composition

CoinMine.com

Another good reference for US coins is The Official Red Book: A Guide Book of United States Coins 2009, but coin composition data is also available online at www.Coinflation.com. and BestCoin.com. Needless to say, when preparing for a grid-down collapse, it is crucial to have hard copies of key references that you’ll need for barter.



Letter Re: Bug Out Contingency Planning

[Introductory note from JWR: I normally send detailed letter replies only to their intended recipients, but in this case, I thought that this letter was a great example of terrain and obstacle analysis,a s well as “outside the box” planning, so I’m positing it for the entire SurvivalBlog readership to ponder. Do you have similar plans for off-road mobility, and contingency plans, folks?]

Mr. Rawles,
A note for Diane about her relative living on-post at Fort Riley, Kansas: First thing to obtain if you want to bug out of Ft. Riley is to get a Kansas Atlas & Gazetteer map book from DeLorme. [JWR Adds: These books are a key tool for “Get Out of Dodge” (G.O.O.D.) planning. Get one of these for your state, and if your intended retreat is in another state, for any states in-between!]

I trained for some years on the Ft. Riley reservation, lived in Kansas and have canoed many streams in the area. I have these comments on how to get out of that location.

The Ft. Riley Military Reservation is bounded on it western side by the very large Milford Lake. The water body of this lake is 14+ miles long and has a wildlife area upstream that extends some 5 to 6 miles north to Boughton, Kansas. At Boughton you can access a good Highway that will take you to Clay Center then west on Highway 24 to get across the Republican river.
Only one road crosses the lake body proper at Wakefield [Highway 82]. The river running into the lake is the Republican River. It is runs through an area of heavy soils making the banks steep, the bottom of the river soft and the stream depth non-fordable. To ford this river channel without a bridge you would have to travel many miles upstream approaching Cloud County Kansas [county seat Concordia] where the river changes from a deep soil bed to a sandy bed. Even in this area no one crosses the river in a four wheeled vehicle. ATVs do, but it is just too soft and sandy. I worked for the Department of Agriculture in this area and am very familiar with the farm community and the river channel areas, as a hunter. The transition zone from solid soils to sand is rather mucky.
I have canoed much of the river from well above Concordia to near the lake. Other than the road crossing at Wakefield and the southern end of the dam where Highway 244 skirts below the dam the west side of Ft. Riley is only a restricted bug out route because of the few escape routes. Near Salina Kansas the is the junction of the Solomon River [consisting upriver of two large streams, the north fork and the south fork]; the Saline River and the Smoky Hill River. Saline is west of Ft. Riley. At Ft. Riley the Republican River joins this conglomeration of rivers that come together at Saline to form the Kansas, River. This river is big. You will not cross unless you can find a bridge. This river runs west to east for many miles and gets much bigger the further east you go. Bugging out south of Ft. Riley is possible only if the Highways are clear to get across this river system.
Consult your maps for details.

There are large tracts of land south and southeast of Junction City, the southern portal to Ft. Riley that do not have a fully-developed [typical Plains state township] mile on mile road grid system.
Why? It is range land supporting large ranches. The roads were never built on a grid in this area. It has restricted assess to state Highways and county farm to market roads only. Consult your maps.
Unless the major Highways are open to the south it is a restricted zone for escape some 15 miles south and 20 miles east due to the lack of a road grid system.

Yes, I-70 does run by the south. A good exit if it is open. To the east is the large metropolitan city of Manhattan. It is a block if you want to bug out to the east. North and further NE of Ft. Riley is the huge Tuttle Creek lake some 16 miles long with its accompanying wildlife land area extending another five miles or so upriver. It is a huge block to getting out east or NE. Only one road crosses the lake on the dam [Highway 13].

The only well developed open grid section of mile on mile of county roads and state Highways is north. The Ft. Riley Military Reservation is some 14 mile long to the north. There is a military road system through this area. This road system is accessible from the bedding area for troops on Custer Hill–or it was some years ago. Check this out.

The huge training area north of Ft. Riley is, or was controlled from a single building called “Range Control”. The assignment and use of the training areas was scheduled from this area. They monitor the areas mostly by radio. My suggestion is to get a military map of Ft. Riley with the range control markings showing the designations of each of the training areas. They all have numbers.
Now, since I was there a large construction and upgrading has proceeded at the tank gunnery range. But in an emergency I would think military families wanting to exit through the training areas to Bala Kansas and Riley Kansas or to get to the Highway to Milford would be possible. [JWR Adds: It also bears mentioning that artillery range impact areas are to be avoided at all times, since they are often littered with unexploded ordnance (UXO). Most of the “back gates” of large military reservations are kept locked and often unmanned except during major field training exercises (FTXes). In genuine “worst case” times of Deep Drama, a large pair of bolt cutters may be an indispensable friend of last resort. Before taking such extreme measures, however, consider that cutting the last link on a chain on such a gate is a Federal crime! Bolt cutters are a crucial tool that every well-prepared family should own, for many purposes.]

Note: large areas of the north are tank training areas. There are trails there marked tank trail. Under no circumstances try to negotiate a tank trail in a civilian vehicle. You will become mired down in no time. I have driven M60 tanks and tracked bridge units all the way from the bird bath to tank training headquarters. Trust me on this. I have seen tanks mired down on those trails that looked like it was going to take an act of God to get them out.

Ft. Riley present a core of access problems anyone wanting to bug out from there. It is possible if you make a good plan. Have the maps. And please, in advance drive all the routes to familiarize yourself with them. Most of all explore the roads through the training areas. Visit Range Control and talk to the people there and get a map of the military reservation area. [JWR Adds: This can often be done on the pretense of scouting a hunt, since some military training areas are open for specific hunting seasons.] Make a plan! Cordially, – JWC in Oklahoma



Influenza Pandemic Update:

WHO warns of severe form of swine flu. The article begins: “Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said on Friday. Some countries are reporting that as many as 15 percent of patients infected with the new H1N1 pandemic virus need hospital care, further straining already overburdened healthcare systems, WHO said in an update on the pandemic.”

Gregor spotted this in an Australian newspaper: “Swine Flu Spreading at ‘unbelievable’ rate: WHO Chief”

Swine Flu’s Worst Case Scenario: Paranoia or Preparedness?

One company is diligently preparing for the worst case H1N1 Flu scenario with promising results

Fearing flu, Vermont fair cancels all swine events



Economics and Investing:

Brad H. sent this from Capitalism magazine: The Collapse of America? The Dire Message of Mr. David Walker

Detroit sets record for unemployment–28.9% (Thank to Paul B. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Arnold Holds Great California Garage Sale To Help Economy

How Goldman Sach’s Problems are Hurting You


US Economy: Spending Climbed in July Due to Clunkers Program


Japanese Economy Hit by “Double Nightmare”

Bankers’ Excesses…At Our Collective Expense

Tsunami of Broke and Desperate Americans

Fed urges secrecy on banks in bailout programs (A more accurate headline would be: “Fed Warns The Truth Will Destroy The Economy”)

Japan Unemployment Hits Record High


US Prisoners Get Cash To ‘Boost Economy’

Summer ‘Recovery’ Will Turn to Cold, Long Winter

Investment Crash Points to Economic Pain

UK Financial Watchdog Backs World Transaction Tax

Can The Financial Soufflé Rise Again?

UK Sleepwalking Toward Decade of Economic Misery


Germany to Lend Directly as Second Credit Dive Looms



Odds ‘n Sods:

Our friend Tamara posted a link to an article that illustrates that a very large quantity of ammunition can be stored in a relatively small, waterproof space.

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Failing Camouflage 101: Robbery suspect spray-paints face for disguise, dies. He should have listened to the warnings of his Greek girlfriend, Anna Phalaxis. 🙂

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Readers that enjoy finding coupon bargains might find the Coupon Chief web site worth bookmarking. This site is one of the better ones. (There are several others that you can quickly find with a web search,and the links at this SurvivalBlog article.) BTW, I predict that this decade will go down in history as a “penny pinching” one, that will rival the 1930s. Coupon clipping (or should I say more accurately, “coupon printing” or “coupon code copying”, these days), is a great way to reduce costs when stocking up.





Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $345 value.)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Forest Fires and TEOTWAWKI, by J.B. in Florida

Often in reading survivalist material, one comes across instructions on how to use fire in a camping or retreat setting for cooking, cleaning, sterilizing, and the like.  There is also quite a bit of information on how to protect ones self and belongings from the threat of fire, particularly wildfires.  Much of the information I have found is good information, and will be useful in a The End of the World as We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) scenario.  The purpose of this writing is not to further expound on those things most of us already know, but rather to use us to think about the other ways fire will impact our lives during TEOTWAWKI and look at some possibilities for actions that we should take now.

Without question, fire has played a vital role in shaping every ecosystem in existence on every land today.  That being said, it has to be true that fire, or the lack of fire, will continue to change and/or maintain the lands and ecosystems available into, and beyond TEOTWAWKI.

For centuries fires that started naturally, usually by lightning, and even fires started by native populations, burned unchecked across the landscape.  These fires were generally of low intensity because fire and the fuels they consumed were in harmony due to their long and virtually unhindered relationship.  Nature was in sync.  Around the turn of the 20th century, people began to see fire as a bad thing that was destroying timber, crops, and occasionally buildings.  With that mindset, and with the rapid advancement of technology, man’s capability to contain and control wildfire improved greatly, and we began to save the precious resources once doomed to destruction.  Unfortunately, it was a long time before it occurred to many people that fire is as necessary to the health and vitality of these areas as rain and sunlight.

Fast-forward a hundred years and the results of our extinguishment efforts are clear.  Many forests and wild lands have gone without God’s built-in cleaning for far too long, and now the fuels available to burn generate high-intensity, fast-burning fires that human ingenuity cannot seem to compete with.  I have managed wildfire on both coasts, and numerous places in between, and I want to assure you that this situation exists in many, if not most, of the wild lands, in every state in our Country today, and therefore, should be a consideration in locating and maintaining a retreat or GOOD location.
All wild lands are going to burn one way or another.  We can allow (or mimic, through the use of prescribed fire) naturally occurring fires to burn, or we can exclude fire from an area until the conditions finally come together to generate a conflagration that humans cannot control.  Choosing the former will go a long way toward maintaining these areas in a state where life will flourish.  These fires consume dead fallen debris which provides much needed nutrients back to the soil.  This in turn, encourages the growth of supple young plant life which provide browse and forage for different wildlife species, and opens up areas close to the ground for new growth of overstory species (of trees) to start over.

The exclusion of naturally occurring fire usually has adverse and devastating effects, which interrupt the “circle of life” for years, and sometimes changes the ecosystem forever.  Older, less healthy trees and shrubs are not “thinned out”, allowing the canopy to grow together and shade out nutritious young plant life.  This discourages wildlife browse, which allows the shrub layer and the fallen debris layer to become thicker and heavier.  Once fire does return, it burns with greater intensity and longer flame length, causing the entire tree canopy to be consumed, and large areas of soil to be sterilized, thereby inhibiting regeneration.

Certainly these illustrations are an oversimplification, but nonetheless they do provide an accurate representation of how these forested ecosystems can work.  And while the fire regime is not the only thing that affects forest health, I believe it is the most prominent aspect of these ecosystems which are affecting forest health in our country today.
So, what should you do when considering, building, or maintaining a retreat locale?  First of all, it is important to note that forests vary greatly from one area to the next.  Being a native of the southeast, my intuition and understanding of what a healthy forest looks like does not always apply in say, the northern Rockies.  I think you should choose a location based upon other factors that you have learned, and then begin to study and learn the fire regime for the ecosystem that you have chosen.  To do that, talk to the locals, the scientists or forestry personnel who work in the area, as well as the firefighters.  Farmers also have a good handle on the land and what is happening.  Pay particularly close attention to the old-timers who “grew up around here”.  Ask them these questions:

  • Have the forests changed in their lifetime?  Are they thick and overgrown?
  • Have the fires really gotten worse over the years, or is it just more “hyped” due to the increased population and the sensational media?
  • Is there more or less wildlife than years past?  (Again, this can be hyped by the media, but the local old-timers will have a good feel for the “truth”.)
  • Who owns most of the large tracts of land?  Do they ever log it?  Do they conduct prescribed burns or “controlled burns”?

Other sources of such information include libraries, museums, and town halls or community centers.  Often they will have old pictures.  Look at the background of those photos.  Do the natural areas look significantly different than they do now?
Once you have begun work on your locale, I believe as good stewards we are responsible to at least learn about the basic fire history and behavior in our area.  Those with tracts of land large enough should also learn how to use fire (prescribed fire) for the benefit of the land we use for our survival.  You may also need to get involved in the political process (as long as there is one to be involved in).  Currently, there are laws in many areas that prevent landowners from using fire in a useful and productive way.  While these laws are probably intended to provide for public safety, many of them are old and work against the public good in the long run by adversely affecting forest health.

Work to protect your property against loss due to wildfire.  You can have the best intentions in the world, but if you loose your home because you chose the wrong landscaping or building material, you will become a statistic that many will use to prevent responsible fire management.  http://www.firewise.org/ is a great resource to start looking for information on how to do this

Let me state now, unequivocally and for the record, fire in the wrong hands is extremely hazardous to life and property, and must be treated with the same respect one would give a loaded bazooka in a crowded church.  I am in no way advocating that everyone who owns or manages a rural piece of property go out and set it on fire.  Doing so, without the proper knowledge and safety measures, can cause loss of life and property in a disaster, for which you may be held wholly and personally liable in a court of law.  By the same token, allowing a natural fire to “burn unchecked across the landscape” without the proper knowledge and available resources can also have the same disastrous affects, and is illegal in some areas.

For those of you who believe, as I do, that the stuff will most certainly one day hit the fan, and are planning to make it “out here”, I assure you that these are important issues.  It cannot be overstated that if you intend to live off of the land, then the health and productivity of that land is vital.  Although done with the best of intentions, we have gone a long way to making our forests unhealthy through fire exclusion.  Continue to do so after the SHTF, and your once safe and beautiful homestead, could quite easily become a burned-out, barren wasteland that can no longer sustain you and yours.

JWR Adds: The sound practice of tree clearing to establish “defensible space” has been previously discussed in SurvivalBlog. See, for example, this 2007 article: From the Memsahib: Developing Wildfire Defensive Space at Your Home or Retreat. Don’t just think about it, get out you chainsaw and accomplish it!



Economics and Investing:

From Reader GG: Poll: 34% of U.S. Workers Surveyed Have Only One Week or Less of Savings to Cover Expenses if Laid Off from Work. We are a nation of debtors, not savers, and someday that’s going to bite us.


Regulators Shutter Three U.S. Banks, Bringing 2009 Total to 84

Reader A.C. kindly sent all these items that he gleaned from News Max Money News:

Not All Stimulus Needed

Global Recovery Not the Same as Equity Recovery

The Deflationists Just Do Not Get It

Germany and France Not So Hard-Hit by Recession

China Meltdown Could Boost the Dollar

And these two items are courtesy of Karen H.:

Newspaper Slump Deepens and 2nd Quarter Ad Sales Fall 29 Percent

The Weak Dollar is Pushing Energy Prices Higher

Items from The Economatrix:

Meltdown 101: Why Banks Struggles Have Worsened

Judge Puts Fed’s Bailout Revelations On Hold

US “Problem” Bank List Hits 15-Year High


US GDP Contracts 1% in 2Q


Toyota’s First Factory Closure Threatens 4,700 US Jobs



Odds ‘n Sods:

A reminder that the new Surviving Disaster series premieres on Spike TV on Tuesday, Sept. 1st. Meanwhile, I’ve been enjoying The Colony, on The Discovery Channel (via online streaming–I don’t own a television.) Four full episodes of the latter are still available online.

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Eric S. sent us this every useful link: How to Move Heavy Objects with Simple Tools

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Bill would give president emergency control of Internet. (Thanks to H. for the link.)

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Ben M. flagged this: Fresnel Lens Solar Distiller. JWR Adds this Proviso: Keep in mind that distilled water should be used for no more than a few days, only for emergency drinking water, since it lack crucial minerals for human health!