Three Letters Re: Some Comments and Some Personal Experiences in Haiti

Sir:
I thought that you and your family might be encouraged by the following: There was an extraordinary occurrence in Haiti on February 17th. Here is a blog entry with a YouTube link about a nationally declared three days of fasting and prayer in Haiti. Amazing grace.

The final sentence in the entry is the most sobering:

“The only sadness that I feel today is for our nation. While a nation that has long been under Satan’s domination is turning to God with total commitment, our nation, founded on Godly values, has rejected God and is rapidly trying to forget that His name even exists. Let us pray for revival.” – Sheila M.

Hi James,
Its been a while. I just spent eight days in Haiti building a radio station in Crois des Bouquets. We were working with a church and pastor I have worked with before. He had about thirty Haitian people who lost everything in his home, plus 10 Americans, three on our radio team, and an evangelistic team out of Florida.

Our team went in with tent, MREs and Mountain House food. a water filter plus all of our necessities. fortunately we didn’t need our food but donated it to the house hold to aid others. We left our tents, sleeping bags, and air mattresses behind and told the Pastor to give them to people he knew who really needed it.

We got a radio message from the states inquiring about an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp who had been sent aid
by a ministry in Indiana. Apparently they had not received their aid yet. We checked and thought we had the right IDP camp. They had not had anything to eat or water in over a week.

My first thought being an old army sergeant was: “Where are the privies?” There were no sanitation pits dug, and people were relieving themselves out in the open. This was just about three miles from the airport at the river bridge. There were two large tent cities in the same location with absolutely no sanitation facilities.

I talked with the leader of one camp and ask why they had no latrines dug. They had absolutely nothing to dig a hole with. I told him that if they didn’t do something immediately about the problem, that disease would go through that camp in short order, and could wipe them all out. I told him I would get a pick and some shovels. I did so the next day.

On the following day we were leaving and the camp had a team out digging privies. Praise the Lord.
James, and readers, there was at that time absolutely nothing being done about sanitation in the camps. The U.S. Army was really concerned about this issue, but their hands were tied. There were no NGOs addressing the problem either. It is a major issue with the medical people I met.

I did see about ten brand new porta Johns at the IDP camp across the street from the presidential palace. But there was no one using them. I’m sure they were put there for the news nosies, just for the cameras. I know in the next month there will be a second disaster developing, and there already is in one camp. (I got word from a person that I trust and that is in the know, that a large TB outbreak had already occurred in one of the IDP camps.

The Haiti government is very inept and un prepared for any disaster. the UN, USAID, UNICEF, Red Curse, et cetera are all just having meetings and doing very little to help the situation.

All I saw when I was there was Christian ministries getting the job done. I know the Samaritan’s Purse, Operation Blessing, Friend Ships, Catholic Relief, Mennonites, Baptists, et cetera are in there getting their hands dirty and getting the job done.

I would just say in closing that the first thing after a disaster strikes, and people are having to camp out, or go into a camp is to dig a suitable latrine, and make some effort to keep clean. One of the first things that our servicemen in all of our services learn in basic training is field sanitation. If our military were turned loose to help I know full well they would go in there and help provide some form of field sanitation.

I do have to say the Christians are pulling together in Haiti, and people are turning to Christ by the thousands.
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Blessings, – Dave M. (A Blessings For Obedience World Missionary Radio volunteer)

Mr. Rawles,

I thought I’d drop a note having been in Haiti from the day after the quake to a couple weeks ago, and having run an ongoing program there for a few years now. I wanted to comment on the issue of rioting in Haiti versus. Chile. I think the core issue was that people in each country were faced with different immediate challenges.

In Haiti, like many other developing countries lacking Chile’s level of building codes and construction standards, Port Au Prince was extremely vulnerable to a quake. Because the quake hit only a few miles from Port Au Prince you had complete destruction of entire zones of the city, with entire blocks where 4/5 of the buildings just collapsed. As a result the death toll was 220,000 people.

The immediate job for a large percentage of the city became how do I dig through these buildings to rescue those 220,000 people or at least recover the bodies. The self organized work crews were pretty incredible. For much of the rest of the population the immediate task became how do I find my family and find shelter. Most of those alive were in front of completely destroyed houses (1.5 million homeless) Even when looking for a few immediate resources because so much was destroyed people were salvaging collapse sites more often than looting.

In addition the atmosphere was somber and surreal, the work crews pulling out bodies everywhere in the city and piling them, the people crying for help, the surgery taking place on the street. I would say that everybody I spoke to who emerged from that situation left with a truly profound sorrow in their hearts. Missing a day or two of food was pretty secondary for most people. Many Haitians have dealt with food insecurity and hunger before, that wasn’t as much of an immediate issue. Even for aid workers it was hard to even remember to eat much less worry about it.

Outside Port Au Prince people were largely just melancholy, it is a small country, everybody had somebody who died, everything was shut down, you couldn’t get money from banks or buy food in stores for a week, yet there weren’t people in the streets till the very end of that, and even then it was just some organized marches in front of the banks for them to re-open. Within four days in Port Au Prince many of the aid services started emerging and food and water started to become more readily available. Within 6 days some money transfer services started opening in the rest of the country and commerce started again.

Thankfully in Chile, outside of the terrible devastation in the Tsunami zone, comparatively many of the structures in the earthquake zone stood. So the challenges faced were different. The people seen on television looting seem more concerned about scarce resources than trying to dig out their trapped friends and family out of the rubble. With a death toll under 1,000 so far the number of people who are directly missing people or who came back to find their home collapsed on their family must be much lower. Which leaves more people concerned about “Where do I get food, where do I get water” than “How do I dig these people out, dear god there are so many people dead, everywhere”

I think in the end the Chilean people will look back on this tragedy and realize how prepared they were as a nation, that they had put the standards in place to keep their buildings standing and they will take that to heart in preparing on a personal level. I am hopeful things will calm and they will find the strength to rebuild.

For the readers who want to know how to prepare for seismic situations let me offer 3 bits of gear advice, always have a full unbreakable water bottle on you, always carry a whistle, and always keep a respirator (even if just an n-95 mask in a pocket, you would not comprehend the toxic cloud that is created when a city collapses, it was like 9-11 everywhere). Beyond that if you are in a developing country in a seismic area with poor cement block construction (lots of parts of Peru, Guatemala, Thailand, Dominican Republic, India, Pakistan, etc) in older style buildings try to sleep near an exit to an open courtyard, try to stay in one story buildings, stay away from adobe. The safest bet is to try to stay in modern hotels, the big chains force proper construction techniques. If the quake hits get out and watch for falling hazards. Many prayers that the readers of this blog never have to face anything like what people are facing in Chile or Haiti. Sincerely, – Peter H.



Letter Re: The Art of Humping a Pack

Sir,
In the articles concerning Humping a Pack, I observed comments about not using wool for foot wear.

I would strongly disagree for a few reasons. My reasoning is based on over 16 years of active and reserve military experience in the Infantry, and from my experiences as a teenager helping Lane County (Eugene, Oregon) in the mid 1970s.

Wool is a superior resource.

1) Unlike synthetics, Wool socks can be repaired.
2) Wet Wool unlike synthetics still maintains up to 80% of its heat retention value. Granted, wet wool weighs a lot.
3) Wool does not burn and melt like synthetics can.

I mention this for not just backpacking, but for disaster and other survival situations.

I will recommend if one has allergies to wool, then synthetics may be a solution, but the ability to re supply or repair things like Gore-Tex, Velcro, or Polypropylene cold weather clothing is some what problematic in areas or situations where there are no means to obtain a re-supply.

I will applaud spending good money for good foot ware. I have three pairs of Materhorn insulated boots with solid dependable soles.

I spent the at that time $150 for each pair and those same boots are still in service today. Granted I do not wear them every day, so this is why I still have three pairs.

The fact of training in various terrains and conditions is extremely advisable. If one has a small child and kiddy back pack carrier, this could be a good alternate training method, without raising eyebrows.

Starting slowly, and getting into shape to back pack is also a good idea.

Other than the items I mentioned above, Each article that you have posted rings true, practical and correct.

I thank you for your blog. I am re-reading your “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation”, your novel “Patriots” and your latest “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It” and I have your “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. Wonderful work, Great Blog, Blessings, – Grog



Economics and Investing:

Economists: Another Financial Crisis on the Way. (Thanks to “Straycat” for the link.)

Fronm Brett G.: Greenhouse Gas Taxes to Push Gasoline to $7 a Gallon?

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Falter After Drop in Pending Homes Sales

US Economy Continues to Slow

Pending US Home Sales Fall 7.6% in January

Investing In Gold: Protection From Runaway Inflation

Karl Denninger: Speculative Premium and Why the Markets Will Crash

Darryl Robert Schoon: Will the US Devalue the Dollar?



Odds ‘n Sods:

“Luddite Jean” thought that a nuclear bunker listed on eBay.uk might be of interest to British readers of SurvivalBlog. Jean’s comments: “It’s a bit small, but in the UK, there is no restriction or planning permission needed for underground buildings.”

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Louisiana police envision TEOTWAWKI in their cities: Bossier sheriff launches ‘Operation Exodus’. Thanks to “B9” for the link.

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From Cheryl: US Gun Owners Buy 14+ Million Guns in 2009–More than 21 of the World’s Standing Armies

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Marko marked this one for us: Quake mission casts the [Chilean] army as good guys at last



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“… [M]any gun owners readily concede that their right to keep and bear arms is “not absolute” and is subject to “reasonable” regulation. This concession to moderation or reasonableness is fatal to the right. Yes, there are people who should not have guns. However, the point of the Second Amendment is precisely to deny government the power to decide who those people are, just as the point of the First Amendment is to deny government the power to decide what you may read and hear. Rights are not reasonable, and are not to be made reasonable, because government itself is not reason; it is force.” – Jeff Snyder



Notes from JWR:

The situation in earthquake-ravaged Chile is still quite tenuous. SurvivalBlog reader “Zed” suggested that I mention this article from the BBC’s Stephen Mulvey: Chile earthquake: Why do people loot. And don’t miss this related article: Chileans protect, feed themselves after quake. Doesn’t this sound a lot like “a neighborhood watch, on steroids”? The conjecture about societal breakdown in SurvivalBlog that was once castigated as “fanciful” is now sounding quite plausible. Get the gear, and get the training, folks. Be ready, willing and able to dispense charity and to help restore order and re-establish free commerce, if and when things go sideways.

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Airguns for Survival, Jock Elliott

An air rifle or air pistol can be a really useful tool for anyone who needs to collect game unobtrusively while trying to survive.

I write a regular blog on airguns for www.airgunsofarizona.com . So here’s “Uncle Jock’s” take on why you might want to include an airgun in your survival kit.

Here’s a quick summary of the key advantages of airguns:

Tack-driving accuracy – High-end air rifles are among the most accurate projectile launchers on the planet. For example, Olympic match air rifles can literally put pellet after pellet through the same hole at 10 meters, and field target airgunners can routinely hit a dime at 50 yards with their air rifles. Some dedicated long-range airgunners report shooting sub-MOA groups at 100 yards and beyond.

Low shooting expense – Once you purchase your air rifle or air pistol, it will be superbly kind to your wallet. Depending upon which pellet your airgun “likes,” you’ll find typical shooting costs on the order of 1-3 cents per shot for ammunition. A sleeve (10 500-pellet tins) of high quality pellets will typically run around $120 plus shipping

Convenience and accessibility – Airguns can be legally shot in many places where it is absolutely forbidden to discharge a firearm. Check with your local authorities, but in many places, you can shoot an airgun in your backyard, basement or garage without running afoul of the law. That means you should be able to get in lots of practice at relatively low cost.

A neighbor-friendly report – Virtually all airguns are quieter than firearms (with the possible exception of some big-bore hunting models). In addition, it is rare for airguns to launch pellets faster than the sound barrier. Some airguns are inherently very quiet, and there are models that are virtually silent.

Some other considerations – You can spend as little or as much as you like, depending upon your tastes and your wallet. You can pick up a utilitarian air pistol or air rifle capable of bouncing soda cans around the back yard for under $50. Or you can spend thousands of dollars on the most sophisticated air rifles on the planet.

Powerplants:

Before you select an air rifle or air pistol, you need to understand the several different powerplants used in airguns to send the pellet downrange. Here’s an overview.

Multi-stroke pneumatic (MSP or pump-up) airguns require 2-8 strokes of an on-board lever (usually the forestock) to store compressed air in the powerplant. This is the powerplant of classic Benjamin and Sheridan air riles. They are virtually recoilless and completely self-contained, so all you need for a day afield is the gun and a tin of pellets. The power can be adjusted by the number of strokes, but once the gun has been fired, it must be pumped up all over again. Another consideration: when pumped up to the max, a multi-stroke pneumatic can be loud.

Single-stroke pneumatic (SSP) airguns also use a lever to compress air in the powerplant, but – as the name implies – require only a single stroke to fully charge the gun. This is the powerplant that was used on many older Olympic 10-meter match guns. SSPs are fully self-contained, easy to cock, highly consistent and often incredibly accurate. The power and speed of these guns is usually low, shooting relatively light match-grade .177 pellets at 500-600 fps.

Spring-piston airguns – also called “springers” – use a lever (normally the barrel or a side- or under-lever) to cock a spring and piston. When the trigger is pulled, the spring is released, pushing the piston forward and compressing a powerful blast of air that sends the pellet down the barrel. Springers are self-contained, often relatively quiet and can be very accurate, but the movement of the spring and piston within the gun before the pellet leaves the muzzle makes them the most difficult airgun type to shoot with high accuracy. Nevertheless, many riflemen can and do master shooting springers.

CO2 airguns use 12-gram cartridges, 88-gram cartridges or CO2 transferred from a bulk tank to launch the pellet. CO2 airguns are recoilless, convenient, and (in target models, increasingly replaced by PCP target models) extremely accurate. Noise levels vary from model to model. Cocking effort is usually very low, making these guns a favorite for family shooting. CO2 airguns require periodic refilling and performance can vary with temperature. Velocity will drop in wintry conditions, and rise in very warm conditions.

Precharged pneumatic airguns (PCPs) are charged with air from a SCUBA tank or high-pressure pump. This is powerplant of choice for high-energy hunting guns, Olympic 10-meter rifles and pistols, and top-echelon field target rifles. PCPs are virtually recoil-free, very consistent, and often superbly accurate. But they are not self-contained – you need a SCUBA tank or high-pressure hand pump available to recharge them, and they can be noisy.

Additional Considerations

When I think about survival airguns, here are the characteristics that I would prefer (and, as you will see, they don’t always work together, so you’ll need to pick the characteristics that are most important to you):

1. Portability. That means either a pistol or a rifle than can be readily broken down. That eliminates many air rifles.

2. Self-contained. I want to reduce the need for ancillary equipment and consumables. That eliminates all CO2 airguns (which don’t work well in cold weather) and pre-charged airguns which require a tank or pump for recharging.

3. Sufficient power for taking small game. Target air pistols won’t get it done. Some springer pistols make 6 foot-pounds of energy, which is sufficient if you skills allow to stalk within 10-15 yards on small game. Some multi-stroke pneumatic pistols make 8-10 foot pounds of energy. Most air rifles generate enough energy to do the job. I have reliable reports of one shooter killing a feral goat with a multi-stroke pneumatic rifle, and another shooter inadvertently killing a deer with a cheap Chinese spring-piston rifle (he was trying to chase it away from the plants in his yard and caused a pneumo-thorax).

4. Stealthy report. I don’t want to be noticed. Spring-piston powerplants are inherently quieter than most others because of the smaller quantity of air used to drive the pellet. Multi-stroke pneumatics tend to generate more noise than springers, but can be quieted with barrel shrouds or by reducing the number of pumps (which reduces the power).

5. Easy to shoot well. Spring-piston powerplants are the hardest to shoot well because of their whiplash forward and back recoil. Multi-stroke pneumatics are easy to shoot well.

6. Reliability. Airguns dealers tell me that springers are the most reliable powerplant. You can usually put at least a couple of thousand rounds through one before a rebuild is needed, and some are far more reliable.

7. Ease of maintenance. Spring piston powerplants usually require a spring compressor for assembly and disassembly. MSPs usually can be taken apart with hand tools.

Specific recommendations. The Mac-1 Steroid Benjamin or Steroid Sheridan is a dead reliable MSP rifle that can easily take small game out to 30 yards, is easily broken down, but is loud at full power and very difficult to silence. A modified 1377 pistol can be built up into a small, easy take-down .22 MSP rifle. It makes a bit less power than a Steroid MSP, and can be readily silenced.

The Diana/RWS LP8, Beeman P1, Browning 800, and Weihrauch HW45 are spring-piston pistols that make around 6 foot-pounds of energy, are inherently fairly quiet (but not dead quiet) and require some dedication to shoot with high precision. Nevertheless, small game has been taken with them, especially at closer ranges.

Jock Elliott, Airgun Correspondent, Precision Shooting Magazine, and author of Elliott on Airguns.



Letter Re: Disturbed by the After Armageddon Docudrama

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I fully enjoy your site and have been reading it daily for some time now.Only yesterday did I follow the link to the You Tube video, After Armageddon.

And only yesterday did the question dawn on me: Following any disaster, what percentage of survivors would be forced to leave their homes?

In twenty years of practicing preparedness, I’ve never given the question any thought!

Sure, I am well prepared and sited in a very rural area flush with abundant water, fish and game, mature hardwoods and other natural resources. I’ve a modest farm with large gardens, we can and preserve every year, and are capable of generating electricity without liquid fuels. I’ve ammo and firearms maintenance tools enough for several lifetimes.

Thus, I would never, under any circumstance, consider leaving my home.

Perhaps in some slightly perverse way, I have been looking forward to TEOTWAWKI. My family and I are enjoying a 19th century bucolic homestead, out of doors most days, maintaining a robust vigilance, eating well, staying warm, raising and educating children and so on.

In short, my family would make only the few adjustments brought on by the failure of high current commercial power, abandonment of motor transport in favor of our mules, and no mechanical refrigeration.

So I am now truly vexed with the question: Just how many folks are like me? What are the numbers of people who will not have any need to leave their homes? Do you have an idea of the numbers? I’d love to know your thoughts. Sincerely, – Tom H.

JWR Replies: Know the numbers is nigh-on impossible, since exact situations cannot be predicted. It is possible, however, to draw some conclusions based on some fairly safe general assumptions. At the core, it all depends on the big linchpin: grid-up, or grid-down. Without grid power for an extended period of time, most cities and even many suburbs will become uninhabitable. I suspect that in a grid-up situation, most people will stay put. But in a grid-down situation, there may be huge numbers of refugees.



Economics and Investing:

C.M. suggested this alarming opinion piece by Niall Ferguson that ran in the Los Angeles Times: America, the fragile empire–Here today, gone tomorrow — could the United States fall that fast?

Items from The Economatrix:

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Don’t Go Wobbly on Us Now, Ben Bernanke

The Sovereigns and the Serfs

Peter Schiff: Don’t Bet on a Recovery

The Financial Battle For The Middle Class: Underemployment At 20%; 38 Million Americans On Food Stamps; Little Hiring; Can It Be A Recovery With No Jobs For This Long?



Odds ‘n Sods:

I was doing some research on behalf of reader Dan K. about temperature stability for medications that are buried in waterproof containers, and I came across this useful map, which is probably already familiar to many gardeners.

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Ready Made Resources is running a semi-annual 25% off sale on Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans. They are offering free shipping on full case lots. These foods are delicious, compact, and have a 30 year shelf life. There is now just 10 days left for the sale, so order soon!

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Courtesy of reader Jim B.: Cellphones Become Our Comfort Objects During Disaster

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Sleepless in Seattle, but Clueless in Tacoma: ATF seizes 30 toy guns, infuriating local business owner. JWR Adds: I’d love to meet the expert that could “readily convert” those to shoot live ammo. Perhaps the same wizard could transmute some lead into gold for me, while he’s at it! (A tip of the hat to Chad S., for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The true God is a living, intelligent, and powerful being. His duration reaches from eternity to eternity; His presence from infinity to infinity. He governs all things." – Sir Isaac Newton



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



The Realities of Interpersonal Combat: How Are You Preparing?, by Officer Tackleberry

I will start this article with a question: What are you doing on a regular basis (i.e. daily) to prepare yourself mentally, physically, emotionally, and most of all, spiritually, to not just survive, but prevail during a violent encounter?

This is a question I ask myself on a regular basis.  I have also posed this same question to my hand-to-hand combat students.

There is no question that interpersonal violence will be fact of life for many in a post-societal collapse.  But, it is a reality in today’s society that many people (i.e. sheeple) choose to ignore.

Depending on your source for statistics, the number of instances of violent crime reported [in the US] in 2008 was more than 5,000,000.  Yes, there are six zeros after that 5!  That figure astounds and saddens me, but doesn’t surprise me.

My full-time job is a police officer with a suburb of a major city that regularly meets or exceeds the number of violent acts from the previous year.  These acts of violence are prominently displayed in local newspapers and on radio and television.  Yet, for many, they refuse to accept this reality and thus refuse to prepare to for it.

Security Awareness

Security awareness needs to be a way of life for all of us because prevention is the best defense.  Now, I am not talking about paranoia, but preparation and practice.  One such example of being security minded is locking your doors once you are in your house or car.  How many times have you seen someone get into their car and talk on their cell phone or do some other task while being totally oblivious to what’s going around them?  Maybe you have even done this yourself.

Speaking of locking your doors, how many of you consistently make sure that the door from the garage to your house is always locked?  I can’t even begin to guess the number of burglaries that I have been on where the offender(s) found the victim’s garage door open and the offender(s) then gained entry into the home via the unlocked man door.  As part of your daily OPSEC for your residence, make sure the garage door is shut and the man door is locked.

Let’s take the last scenario one step further.  Just this past summer I saw several incidents in which the offender(s) pushed the center of the garage door back far enough to reach the disconnect cord for the electric garage door.  Once the opener is disconnected from the chain, they quietly lifted the garage door and stole valuable items from the garage.  Also, in one case they gained entry into the home because the man door to the garage from the house was unlocked.

A personal security tool that you can purchase for yourself and keep on you at all times is a small LED flashlight.  Streamlight, Surefire and Dorcy are just three of the quality brands that are out there.  You want a small metal one that’s not much longer than the width your hand so I am not talking about one of those big, 3 or 5 “D” cell Mag-Lites, even though those are good options for your vehicle and home. Having a flashlight already in your hand allows you to check in and around your car when you’re in dark parking lots or garages and performing OPSEC on your personal property.  You can also shine this light in the eyes of a potential assailant, causing temporary blurred vision and disorientation.  If you choose to get a flashlight, try to get one with a tail-activation switch option and that has replacement batteries and keep at least two extra batteries with you at all times.  Most people, even cops, forget to charge their lights and the lights don’t work when they need them the most.  Also, consider getting a light with the scalloped or serrated edges around the lens area.  It makes a great impact weapon should you need it.

Entire chapters can be written on personal and property security awareness.  But, suffice it say, security awareness needs to become a way life because, especially post-WTSHTF, your life may literally depend on it.

Hand-to-Hand Combat

As I mentioned earlier in the article, I am a Hand-to-Hand (H2H) practitioner and instructor.  My primary form is an Israeli H2H system that I have taught to both civilian and law enforcement.  I also teach security awareness and self defense seminars for women in the community.

I have studied several different styles of martial arts over the past 25+ years and have seen many drawbacks of traditional systems.  Most traditional systems are heavy on tradition but light in the area of combat applications.  This fact is well known and recently there has been a plethora of “new” systems out there that refer to themselves as reality-based martial arts (RBMA).

I personally believe that everyone should learn how to defend themselves with both empty hands and weapons.  Even now, depending on the size of your area, the number of officers on duty, and some other factors, our response to your 911 call could be anywhere from two minutes to an hour.  Even if our response is only two minutes, when fighting for your life that may seem like an hour.  Post-WTSHTF, police response may be non-existent. 

RBMAs have tried to step in and market themselves as the “answer” for your H2H needs.  But, there are some serious dangers involved that you need to be aware of.  First, it seems like most of the instructors or “creators” of these systems are former Navy SEALs, Green Berets, Special Forces etc.  Please take the time to learn the instructors true credentials, check references, and observe a few classes.  Also, be wary of the home study courses that claim that you will be able to defeat any attacker in seconds if you just purchase their products.

Another type of RBMA is one that relies heavily on ground fighting, such as Gracie or Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, or on joint locks, such as traditional Japanese Jiu-Jitsu, Aikido, or some blend thereof.  The goal of these systems, especially in the beginning stages, is to learn to defeat and/or control another one-on-one.  There are too many variables in a violent encounter to justify spending time wrapped up tight with just one person. 

You should train in a system that teaches you to defend common attacks, encourages aggression when appropriate, limits ground work at the beginning levels, works in multiple attacker scenarios on a regular basis and teaches empty hand vs. weapons at the lower levels.  Some of the styles I mentioned do these same things but normally at a much higher rank level which translates to much longer training time.  At our school, you will see all of the above within the first 6 months of training.  I am not saying the system I train/teach in has all of the answers because such a system doesn’t exist.  However, one comment I hear consistently is how the participant felt they were ready to defend themselves after the first lesson. This was how our system was designed and is why the Israeli military and police use it to this day.

I know that there are many proponents out there that believe mixed martial arts (MMA), judo, boxing, Thai boxing and wrestling are competent RBMAs, and they are for what they are designed for.  However, these specific RBMAs are limited by rules, safety equipment, number of opponents (which there is only 1), and lack of non-personal weapons.  Don’t get me wrong, these specific systems bring a lot of good training characteristics to the party and I have participated in several of them myself.  But, the point is that you need to train beyond the limitations of these systems. 

Now, some personal thoughts about your family members training in H2H.  If your budget allows, I believe each household member should receive competent H2H training.  Encourage your spouse/significant other to train but, when it comes to your children, especially younger ones, I think you should mandate it.  My wife has attended a womens’ self defense seminar and we recently discussed her attending another one.  While she doesn’t take formal classes on a regular basis, she likes Tae Bo so I encourage it.  Tae Bo done on a regular basis provides her with physical fitness, is fun for her, and allows her to practice some of the moves she had learned.

As far as children are concerned, I believe that quality self-defense training is a must.  According to a study I read a couple of years ago, there are more than 250,000 assaults in public schools every year.  Based on my experience, I believe that the actual number for this is about 25-50% higher.  I know many schools don’t report these incidents because they believe that it will reflect negatively on them.  I know that the training my children have been through has greatly helped them.  One of my children has had issues with a bully and has had to defend himself from an attack where the other child was choking him with both hands on his throat.  This same child was also saved from a nasty fall on concrete when he executed a perfect break fall after he accidentally tripped over an object when playing.  A real good resource for preparing your children is the DVD titled, “I Am Not a Target“.  We found a copy of it at our local library and I highly recommend it.

One key aspect of having you and your family trained in a quality H2H system is that everyone should be able to recognize pre-assault indicators.  This way, if one of you doesn’t see the indicators, someone else in your family may and then they warn the rest of the family and/or attack the assailants.  This especially vital in a post-WTSHTF period when it might just be your family against “the world”.

Don’t Cheat Fair!

I have a specific saying and philosophy when it comes to self-defense: The only fair fight is one that I win!  I have applied this saying to both my personal and professional life.

At the beginning of this article, I mentioned not just surviving, but prevailing during a violent encounter.  You must think and train with the understanding that you may be the only thing standing between your loved ones and their potential pain, suffering, or even death. 

What are you willing to do to stop a violent assault against you or loved one?  Are you willing to scratch, bite, or dig your thumb in someone’s eye?  Are you willing to hit someone with a lamp, run them over with a car, plunge a butcher knife into them, or stab them in the neck with a pen?

These are questions you must ask yourself ahead of time and be mentally, physically, emotionally and spiritually prepared to do what is necessary to prevail.

One aspect of not cheating fair is using your environment.  Take a look around at the area you are in right now.  What items do you see that you could defend yourself or someone else with?  What could become a barrier between you and your attacker?  What could you strike or stab an attacker with?  Is there anything that you could throw on an attacker that could cause pain, like hot coffee?  If you are at home, how quickly could you get to a firearm should you have picked one out for home defense?  Knowing your environment is a security awareness concept that you should be practicing constantly.

Now, let’s talk about biting and eye gouging.  How many of you have ever been bitten real hard?  I have and it was one of my children.  She was 18 months old and she sunk her teeth into my neck the first time I started to dunk her into a pool.  She bit me so hard that my girlfriend had to physically pry open her jaws to get her off of me.  I remember two distinct things: first, it was some of the worst pain I had ever experienced and secondly, it didn’t bleed.  I know some people are scared that by biting another person, they may contract some kind of disease.  Yes, that is a valid concern.  But if you’re dead because you wouldn’t cheat fair, does it really matter?  Also, if the attacker intends the attack to be a sexual assault, what are you most likely to get a disease from, the completed sexual assault or some blood from a bite?  When you bite, go for a major muscle area like the chest, shoulders, side of the neck, back and thighs.  Try to stay away from appendages such as fingers, ears, nose, or genitalia.  These areas, while being fairly sensitive, will separate from the body with enough force, which helps the attacker with the pain factor, and these areas have the tendency to bleed a lot more.  Why take the chance with blood if we don’t have to?

As soon as you mention sticking your thumbs in someone’s eyes, you see people’s demeanor change.  It’s a gross thought that cause many to squirm.  When my wife was in her self defense class and the instructors mentioned eye gouges, she looked at me and said that she couldn’t think of any reason why she would do something like that to another person.  I quickly asked her what she would do if someone suddenly grabbed our son from her.  I immediate saw a physical change in her demeanor.  Her eyebrows furled, her shoulders raised and her fists clenched.  She just visualized a reason she absolutely would stick her thumb in someone’s eye.  A good account of someone doing this very thing in combat can be found in the book, “House to House”, which is about the Battle of Fallujah.

Weaponry Options

No discussion about interpersonal combat would be complete without talking about weapons.  I will focus this part on weapons that are used for close quarters combat.  These weapons will be classified as blunt, chemical sprays, edged, electric discharge, firearms (mainly handguns) and improvised weapons.

When I think of blunt weapons, I think of any object that can be swung fast and hard as to cause blunt force trauma.  Some common blunt weapons are ball bats, sticks, telescoping batons (ASP, Monodnock), kubotans and hammers.  If you carry or intend to carry a blunt weapon for personal defense, you need to practice regularly by striking fairly stiff objects such as a heavy bag or rolled-up carpet.  Many people are surprised how a blunt weapon feels in their hands when striking a hard object.  I know of several instances of where officers have had their batons go flying out of their hands when they have struck a suspect.

Chemical sprays seem to be a choice that many people, especially females, make.  Actually many chemical spray products are specifically marketed to women as self-defense tool.  Chemical sprays have their place but some things to keep in mind is that it is not instantly incapacitating to an attacker, you will likely be contaminated as well and you need to practice regularly to know your particular spray device works.  Several manufacturers sell an inert spray that can be used for training or you can buy a second can of the same kind so you can practice. 

Use of edged weapons is an area that I know I am weak in, and I continue to learn more about. It is also an area filled with many options, misconceptions and a plethora of experts.  Edged weapons are scary to face and personally, when empty-handed, I would rather be facing a pistol or other weapon in close quarters than an edged weapon.  When learning about edged weapons, make sure that sure that your training includes defense against and the offensive use of the weapon.  Spyderco and other manufactures make training knives that look just like a regular one but that don’t have a sharpened blade.  The first time that I trained with this knife it was intimidating to me because it looked so real.  Another training option I recommend is to take several pieces of heavy duty cardboard and glue them one on top of the other until it’s about 4-5” thick.  Now you can slash and stab the cardboard several times.  This will help you to decide if the knife you have chosen will work with the impact of combat.  Once you find one that can hold up to this kind of training and not tear your hand up, keep that one for training and buy a second one for everyday carry.

In my humble opinion, electric discharge devices such as stun guns, Tasers, and similar devices are the most over-hyped and misunderstood self-defense options out there.  Based on my experience and research, these devices don’t always work when needed and, especially stun guns don’t instantly incapacitate an attacker.  Add to the fact that these devices are battery and technologically-dependant, and I believe that they are very impractical, especially in a post-WTSHTF world.

For many people, the firearms option is an absolute must.  If you choose this option then you need to constantly train with it. Shooting is a very perishable skill.  Also, shooting a few rounds into a paper bull’s eye target is not training, it just helps you to get familiar with the gun. Try to shoot human silhouette or similar paper targets.  Shooting competitions, especially the IDPA, are good ways to work on your skills under the stress of competition.  Your training should include force-on-force scenario training with Airsoft, Simunitions, and/or paint ball.  Airsoft guns are a great basic training options for children and others that are not familiar with and/or are initially scared of guns.  You can work on grip, sight picture, sight alignment, trigger control, basic marksmanship and gun safety. While nothing replaces shooting real ammo, air-soft is a great option that I use myself at a mere fraction of the cost of shooting real ammo and I can do it in my home. Just make sure to get a CO2 or green gas operated gun and not a spring operated one that has to be cocked with every round.  You need to train different retention options with your gun, whether the gun is deployed or still in the holster.  You also need to train to shoot one handed with either hand and train to use your flashlight and your gun together for low-light situations.

I kind of glossed over improvised weapons in the “don’t cheat fair” section.  Use your environment to your advantage.  I have seen this done in both bar fights and by women who have defended themselves from domestic assaults.  I have seen people who have been hit with pool sticks, bottles, mugs, pool balls, 2x4s, chairs, and cooking pans.  In many cases the injuries were quite severe.  Some other options are pens, vehicles, screwdrivers, garden implements and household brooms or mops.  One great option is a small fire extinguisher that you keep in your home and/or vehicle.  These are fairly small and lightweight so they can be wielded as an effective impact weapon plus if you spray it an attackers face, it is hard for them to breath and see.  An option I hear touted a lot is putting a key between your fingers and strike that way.  For this to work, you must hit a vital area, which is very hard to do in a dynamic situation.  Plus, I believe that the impact will cause significant enough damage to your hand at impact that they keys will leave your hand and cause severe injury to you.  To see so for yourself, fold a towel over several times and put it over a small pillow that’s lying in the floor.  Now, slowly strike downwards into the towel/pillow combination.  I think you will find that just a soft strike like this can sting your hand.  A good option for your keys is keep a small chain or lanyard on it, like the ones that you see people wear around their necks.  In a self-defense situation, grab the lanyard and swing your keys in a circular motion towards the attacker like a mid-evil flail.  When choosing a lanyard or similar option, get one with as much metal as possible, especially the clip that attaches to the keys.  You want something that will hold up to the impact that will result from a strike.

A common theme for weapons is that you need to regularly train with whatever options you choose.  Consistent, quality training is must that will pay off when you need it.  Do a lot of research and networking to find competent instructors and training venues.  While nothing can equal the stress of actual combat, choose training options/venues that put you under stress, which helps prepare you for combat.  This is why force-on-force training is so critical.

Your Mind: Your Greatest Resource

Preparing your mind and your body for the realities of combat should be a constant journey, not a destination.  For average citizen, seriously hurting or killing another person is not a normal behavior and I thank God for this.  This is why we are able to have a somewhat “civilized “ society.

The military and law enforcement know that this is true and that’s why measures are taken in training to help soldiers and police officers overcome this normal resistance.  Humanoid 3-D targets, human-shaped steel or paper targets, video simulators and force-on-force training are just some of the methods used to help remove hesitation/resistance.

Along with previous mentioned training methods, you should be thinking of scenarios in your mind and how you would react to them.  We do this in law enforcement all of the time.  But, it is no longer referred to as “if/when” thinking.  This method is now referred to as “when this happens, this is what I will do”.  When you leave “if” in the equation, there seems to be room for doubt and many people are still surprised when a violent event occurs.  By using the “when/what” method of preparation, you are more likely to be surprised when a violent event doesn’t occur.

Also, you need to be thinking outside the box.  An example of such thinking is feigning compliance should someone get the drop on you and has a temporary advantage over you.  This is especially true in sexual assault situations.  Feigning compliance may cause the offender to lower his guard enough for you to launch a counter attack or it may cause him to take his eye off you long enough for you to grab an improvised weapon.  Another example in the area of sexual assault is that the attacker may get close enough for you to suddenly bite or scream into his ear.  How many of you have picked up a child who suddenly screams just about the time you get the child to your face level? It scares the heck out of you.  Screaming when in close to an attacker is a great force multiplier.

There are some great training books that will help you to prepare for the mental, emotional, and spiritual aspects of being involved in combat.  First and foremost on the list is the Bible.  One Biblical example is David, who was a great warrior who served God and protected His people.  The books “On Combat” , “On Killing” and “Sharpening the Warriors Edge ” are also great resources.

But, even with everything I have said previously, I believe that the strength to defend yourself or a loved shouldn’t come from just you because the human is a created being and thus has limitations.  The strength that you should rely on comes from God and the hope we have in His Son, Jesus, as our risen Lord and Savior.  As a Christian, I pray for God’s strength and protection on a regular basis and I hope that you do too.

I pray that this article is useful and informative to you.  I pray for our nation and our leaders.  I also pray for God’s blessing and protection for each of you and your families.



Letter Re: Some Thoughts on The Golden Horde

One of the SurvivalBlog concepts that has fascinated (and haunted) me since learning of it has been the concept of the Golden Horde: the exodus of the unprepared-but-entitled softies, fleeing the cities in search of food, water and shelter after a SHTF scenario.

I say “haunted” because – out of necessity – my retreat lies in the middle of a triangle formed by three medium-size cities, so I’ve long suspected that I would be in prime Golden Horde country.

In order to understand what such an exodus might actually look like, I decided to make some assumptions about travel behavior and then superimpose those assumptions onto a map. I wanted to model something that I could actually prepare and plan for, rather than just worry about an invisible foe.

My nephew runs an instant oil change shop, and several months ago – when I first started reading SurvivalBlog – I asked him to begin noting the average amount of gasoline customers had in their tank when they brought them in.

This isn’t in any way scientific; I just wanted some sort of information to base my assumptions on. After about two months of watching, my nephew reported that the average is somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 tank of gas.

I had assumed, if graphed out, it would probably be a bell-curve with a few people having a full tank and a few people running on fumes, and everyone else hovering somewhere around the middle. So I was a bit surprised that the average seemed to be quite a bit below half. I told this to a gas station owner friend of mine, and he said he wasn’t surprised. He said nowadays people tend to just buy gas as needed (usually in even dollar amounts), and rarely “fill it up”.

For my assumptions, I will say that most people have a gas tank that’s 40% full.

As for average gas tank size on the road today, I basically had to trust the web for this one, and most of what I read put the average at between 14 and 16 gallons. I decided to split the difference and say 15 gallons.

A 15 gallon tank that is 40% full contains 6 gallons.

According to web sites that track such things, the average highway MPG of the 20 most common new vehicles on the road is 22 MPG. This does not account for all the used vehicles on the road. Also, I couldn’t find average city MPG figures, but judging by the typical relationship between highway and city MPG, I’m assuming that the stop-and-start driving of a mass evacuation would be even worse than typical city driving, and would certainly offer no more than 18 MPG. I think 18 MPG would be generous.

Furthermore, after a genuine SHTF scenario, gas stations will be sold out within minutes, so for most people, additional gasoline above and beyond what they already have in their cars will simply not be an option. Which means that – to my surprise – after TSHTF, the majority of drivers fleeing the city will travel not much more than 108 miles before having to proceed on foot.

Based on disasters like Katrina and others, I assume at least 20% of the city will stay behind to try to make a go of it, and 80% will flee. Who knows if that will be accurate. Perhaps as many as half will stay behind, but for me, I used 80% as a kind of worst-case assumption.

Now, I had to formulate some route assumptions. These will vary from city to city, and you’ll have to arrive at your own assumptions about this, but in my particular area, here is what I’ve come up with: 70% of people will (try to) use interstates, 25% will use state highways and 5% will use rural and secondary roads.

I’ve further assumed that the city will disperse in all directions. In other words, there is no compass point that will be particularly favored. This may not be true everywhere, but in my area, there’s no real or perceived advantage to heading East vs. West for example.

I’ve been informally observing interstate traffic patterns in my area (something I’d advise you to do as well) and about 1 in 17 cars (say 6%) make a turn from the road they’re on to any given side road or exit.

In other words, if you start at some random point with 1,000 cars, at the next off-ramp, about 60 will exit, leaving 940 on the road. At the next exit, 56 cars will get off or turn and 884 cars will continue on the interstate.

In normal day-to-day life, cars also get on the interstate at these places too, but I suspect that in a genuine SHTF scenario, people who are already out of the city will be less somewhat less likely to join the extremely slow, Golden Horde on the interstates.

Again, trying to get accurate figures for these things is obviously extremely difficult, and who knows if these figures will hold after SHTF, but by erring on the high side of things, you can at least have something to plan for.

So armed with these assumptions, let’s now apply them to a roadmap.

Go to Google Maps and pick the major city that’s nearest your location, and multiple the population by .8 (or whatever your assumption is on how many people will be bugging out).

Now, distribute those people along all the outbound interstates, state highways and secondary roads according to your assumptions. (In my case, 70% interstate, 25% state highways, 5% secondary.)

Then follow each route that heads in your general direction, losing 6% at each exit, or intersection and continuing with this until you get about 110-120 miles. These are the locations where people are going to congregate and decide what to do next.

From here, these groups will disperse in a more scattered way (since they’re on foot), with perhaps 20% choosing to take exits and side roads, a few even going cross-country in search of something to eat.

Be sure to repeat this for other nearby cities, and when you’re finished, you should have a (very) rough idea of the number of hungry people who may be descending upon your area. The accuracy of these figures will be entirely dependent on the accuracy of your assumptions, but hopefully it will aid in your planning.

Prior to doing this experiment, I had a vague uneasiness about this issue, but now I know that there will be about 2,200 refugees that will pass directly in front of my property gate on foot, with some percentage of those probably daring to walk the mile-long driveway to my house. I’m still uneasy about the situation, but at least now it feels like a manageable problem instead of an unknown bogeyman. – Rex J.



Economics and Investing:

Reader John S. spotted this: California is a greater risk than Greece, warns JP Morgan chief

I found an article linked in a piece by Dr. Gary North that illustrates just how deep a hole the Federal government is digging: $126.9 Billion and Counting.

The charts in Nathan’s recent blog piece tell a thousand words. This is no ordinary recession. We’ve fallen off a cliff.

George Gordon spotted this: Gold Hits Record High In Euros, Pound.

Items from The Economatrix:

Ron Paul Discusses Coming US Collapse

Jim Rogers: Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks

Housing Recovery Looking Shakier than Expected

Consumer Confidence Weakens in February

No Relief From Tax Agony (The Mogambo Guru)

Massive Bank Failures Due, Says Bank Oversight Panel

Commercial Mortgage Default Rate in US More than Doubles

More Merger Activity Helps Lift Stocks for Third Day

Postal Service’s Emerging Model: Never on Saturday

Bad Debts Hit Record High

Chilean Stocks Post World’s Biggest Drop as Quake Closes Roads