Letter Re: A South Carolinian Seeking Retreat Locale Advice

Mr. Rawles,
 I live in the Upstate area of South Carolina. Actually live in Spartanburg. Here is the info on my area, from Wikipedia:  

“Spartanburg has a municipal population of 37,013 and an urban population of 145,058 at the 2010 census.[4] The Spartanburg Metropolitan Statistical Area, corresponding to Spartanburg County, had a population of 284,307 as of the 2010 census.[4]
Spartanburg is the second-largest city in the greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Combined Statistical Area which had a population of 1,266,995 at the 2010 census.[4] It is part of a 10-county region of northwestern South Carolina known as “The Upstate,” and is located 98 miles (158 km) northwest of Columbia, 80 miles (130 km) west of Charlotte, and about 190 miles (310 km) northeast of Atlanta.”

We have a ten man team with families, but to my thinking, this area, even out in farming country ( Where our retreat is.) within 15-20 miles, this is still very risky, and personally feel the need to find a place further out, maybe out of state. What is your opinion?  I’d really appreciate any thoughts. No detail needed, just a confirmation or set my mind at ease. Thank you sir.
God bless, – S.F.C.

JWR Replies: There is some good farming country and many good and trustworthy folks where you live.  But the key problems are population density and the distance to urban areas.  There are just too many people to pull through a grid-down collapse without a major die-off.  That die-off would not be peaceful. The sad fact is that the population density problem is true for most of the eastern United States. Lets choose Montana, for comparison.

Compare these statistics:

“The population of South Carolina (31,189 square miles) is 4,679,230.” And “…the greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Combined Statistical Area which had a population of 1,266,995 at the 2010 census.”

…to these:

“The population of Montana (147,165 square miles) is 989,415.”    And: “Montana is a large state – a trip via interstate [highway] from the far eastern town of Wibaux [Montana] to the western border town of Mullan, [Idaho] is over 700 miles, an estimated 12 hour trip.” [Emphasis added.]

So… Montana is five times the size of South Carolina, but it has less than 1/4th of its population. Here is brief intellectual exercise: What cities would you pass through and where would you end up if you drove 12 hours from Spartanburg at 70 m.p.h. in any given direction? (Well, obviously if you went east it is just 230 miles to the Atlantic Ocean…) But how much population would you pass through in those 12 hours, especially if you headed north, or northeast, or south? Now consider the same exercise, but starting from, say, Cut Bank. Montana. You certainly wouldn’t reach any significant “urban” area for a long, long while. The first good-sized city that you would reach (after two hours of driving 70 m.p.h. without taking a bio break) is Helena. That is the state capitol, but it has only about 28,000 people.

See the Retreat Areas Page for my recommendations. Be sure to take a look at the “Lights of the U.S.” photo maps at Blue Marble. A picture tells a thousand words.

If you must hunker down in the Upstate region of South Carolina, then for a true “worst case” situation be prepared to have no outside contact for two years or longer. Meanwhile, while refugees from the cold northern states will presumably flood the southeastern U.S. while concurrently a nationwide die-off takes place. Living through that will take a lot of stored food and fuel, plenty of teamwork, and castle-like architecture. Furthermore, you would have to be situated on a piece of land with spring water or a shallow well that is well away from any highway or other natural line of drift for looters and refugees.

Granted, the Upstate region is quite good by southeastern US standards. It is certainly much safer than the Atlanta or Raleigh-Durham regions. But that is all relative, as I outlined above. The Upstate region might pull through a deep economic depression just fine, if the power grid stays up. But if the grid goes down for more than a month, then update your will and say your prayers.

If you can, then relocate to The American Redoubt. We have lots of elbow room.In my estimation, fewer people will mean fewer problems.

Letter Re: Details on the Rawles Ranch

Mr. Rawles:
I’ve noticed that you haven’t mentioned many details about where you live, or much about your daily life, like most other blogs do. Just curious. – R.K. in Alabama

JWR Replies: I try not to clutter my blog with daily minutiae. Since SurvivalBlog is intended to be educational, I try to stick to the preparedness issues at hand, as much as possible. That means downplaying politics and minimizing posts with detailed descriptions of what I’m eating, the eccentricities of our pets, my favorite music, and so forth. There are plenty of other blogs out there in the blogosphere for that.

To maintain our family’s privacy, we are forced to be very circumspect. For OPSEC reasons, I never post pictures of my family members, our vehicles, our house, our livestock, or our ranch. In past years, we had some undesirable contacts with stalkers, so we were forced to go “down periscope.” Given the nature of my blog, this heightened privacy posture is a must, for our personal safety. But here is what I can tell you about our lives, in a nutshell:

We live year-round at a ranch west of the Rockies, inside the American Redoubt.

The ranch is less than 100 acres, but it is surrounded by public land. This provides the ultimate “big backyard” for hunting and cutting firewood. To heat our home, we burn mainly Red Fir and Western Larch. (The latter is commonly called Tamarack, although technically it isn’t.) On the ranch and within just a couple of miles of it, there is truly a lifetime supply of both varieties–either dead-fallen or dead-standing.

The ranch is fully fenced and cross-fenced. About half of it is sub-irrigated and provides excellent pasture. We raise dairy cattle and small livestock, we keep poultry, we have dozens of fruit and nut trees, and we have a very large fenced garden with extra-tall posts for our deer fence. The majority of my time is spent writing, editing and ranch chores, but I assist my wife with her dairying, cheese, butter and yogurt making, as well as dehydrating, freezing, and canning the bounty from our land. The majority of my wife’s time is spent homeschooling our kids. We homeschool using the classical model.

Our ranch is nearly 30 miles from the nearest town. That can be inconvenient, at times. The area is quite scenic, but we live at fairly low elevation so we enjoy a reasonably-long growing season. A river passes through the back end of the property.

We have a three year stored food supply that could easily be extended to serve us for much longer when supplemented with butchered livestock, wild game, wild huckleberries, and our garden produce.

We don’t live in a bunker or in any sort of multi-family compound. Nor do we live at the idealized level of self-sufficiency and preparedness that is portrayed in my novels.

We faithfully attend a local Christian church that maintains Reformed distinctives. Our church supports a large number of missionaries. We also independently help support a Christian mission school in rural Zambia.

Two years ago, just a year after the untimely passing of my wife Linda (“The Memsahib“), I married a lovely young outdoorsy widow, who in the blog is called “Avalanche Lily.” She had been widowed for several years, and already had children of her own. Our family is now quite large with children ranging from grade school age to college age. All of our children have been and will continue to be exclusively home schooled through the 12th grade.

We don’t own a television, nor do we want one. We enjoy an eclectic mix of music, primarily via iTunes. We have a nearly a dozen shortwave radios, many of which are transformerless AC-DC All-American Five designs. (International shortwave listening has been one of my passions since I was in junior high school.) One nice thing about our locale is that we are in an electromagnetic quiet zone. This makes for outstanding shortwave and AM DXing.

At the ranch we primarily use MURS band radios for intrusion detection (with a Dakota Alert), our everyday chores, hiking, horseback riding, and hunting. We also have 2 meter, 6 meter, and HF rigs. Several family members are licensed ham radio operators, but you won’t find us in any of the ham callsign databases like QRZ.com.

For our privacy, I selected a Vonage telephone number with a 510 prefix. That is a prefix normally associated with Northern California. That phone prefix often confuses mass media reporters and my consulting clients. (We don’t live in California.)

Also for our privacy, we have our mail forwarded from a post office box in Moyie Springs, Idaho. We don’t live anywhere near there. This address is often a source of confusion. I regularly get e-mails from readers, mentioning that they will be “passing through” Moyie Springs, and saying that they’d like to meet me for lunch or dinner. That would be a very long drive for me!

We do our best to lead a quiet, humble, Christ-centered life. Living in the hinterboonies has its drawbacks, but we wouldn’t trade it for anything in the world. We are never moving back to the suburbs!

Recipe of the Week:

Wiley’s Chuckwagon Pecan Pie Recipe

Here’s a ranch favorite I love to take to potlucks and calf-ropings. No one has a clue that it’s main ingredient is Pinto Beans!

            1 C mashed pinto beans (cooked, unseasoned and well done)
            2 C sugar
            4 eggs
            1/4 lb butter
            2 tbs molasses or dark corn syrup
            2 tsp vanilla
            1/2 tsp salt
 
Cream sugar and butter. Add well beaten eggs, molasses, and salt. Beat in well-mashed beans (that have been cooked, unseasoned and well done.) Pour into an unbaked pie shell. Pecans may be sprinkled on top before baking. Bake at 350 F until firm. It’s easy and delicious!  Happy Trails!

 

Useful Recipe and Cooking Links:

Howard G. mentioned that there is a great list of Old Cooking Definitions and Temperature Equivalents available at the Preparedness Advice Blog web site.

Do you have a favorite recipe that you have tested extensively? Then please e-mail it to us for posting. Thanks!

Economics and Investing:

Monty Pelerin: Europe Will Trigger U.S.

Frantically spending and monetizing, to delay the collapse: Debt Up $1.59 Trillion Under GOP House—More in 15 Months than First 97 Congresses Combined

Greek Exit From Euro Seen Exposing Deposit-Guaranty Flaws

The end game of global leveraged debt – double-digit percentage point market declines in Europe and Japan and the danger of refinancing debt with longer term debt.

Over at TF Metals Report: Getting Real, Real Fast

‘Beware a rerun of the Great Panic of 2008’: Head of World Bank warns Europe is heading for ‘danger zone’

Items from The Economatrix:

Oil Set For Biggest Monthly Drop in Three Years on Debt Crisis

Jobs Data Points to Recovery Losing Momentum

Gold Poised for Worst Monthly Run in 13 Years on European Crisis

Moody’s Downgrades Nine Danish, Three Finnish Banks and Lenders

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thomas B. sent this amazingly informative graphic of the United States: 56 Years of Tornado Tracks. Once again, the American Redoubt region stands out as a true safe haven. (Note that the scale of the tracks is exaggerated and made more linear than actually occurred.)

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Seed for Security has announced a special promotion: A free pint of Winter Rye (approximately 13,280 seeds), and a free packet of Provider Green Beans (approximately 150 seeds), will be added free to every order over $45. This offer is available for only a limited time.

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Why American Riots Will Be The Worst In The World

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Chris G. mentioned an emerging threat that is documented over at Redstate: One Metric on Impact: SWATting.

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The latest on CISPA (Commonly called “Son of SOPA.”) SurvivalBlog readers in the U.S. are encouraged to contact your elected representatives to ask them to oppose this monstrous legislation.

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Rescued Idaho puppy turns out to be a wolf. JWR’s Comments: In case you are wondering, Ketchum is not a typical Idaho town. Rather, it is a resort town that is undergoing Aspenization and that is peopled primarily by rich out-of staters. Apparently Ketchum has a surplus of sympathy for predators and a shortage of shovels and common sense.

Note From JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 41 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 41 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

When Push Comes to Shotgun: Survival in the Suburbs, by Michael K.

To anyone who swatches the news or opens up an internet browser from time to time, it’s exceedingly clear that the world is becoming an extremely dangerous place.  From the abstract threats such as global economic collapse or pandemic to the more concrete ideas of natural catastrophes, terrorist attacks and the like, it’s obvious that preparedness isn’t just something to think about occasionally, it’s an absolute necessity.  Yet, with our feet firmly planted in the middle class, my wife and I don’t exactly have the money to go out and build the fortified bunker of our dreams for the day when, inevitably, life as we know it here in America may take a turn for the worse.  We’ve had to adapt our game plan to match both our materials and our means.  And let me tell you, preparing for disaster smack dab in the middle of the suburban wasteland is a completely different ball game.

So, to start off, I think we should have a little history about me and my situation.  I grew up in the mountains of northeastern Tennessee, deep in the heart of Dixie.  In rural Appalachia, self-sustainable living and prepping are just normal parts of everyday life for a lot of people, and my family was no exception.  Hunting, fishing, gardening, canning food, etc. were pretty much the norm in our area, and served as a means for people in a fairly poor economic region to build both a comfortable life for themselves and a little peace of mind.  On top of that, the mountainous terrain of the southern back country offers great protection from a lot of natural disasters (tornados, flooding, etc.) and isolation from most of the rest of the American populace should widespread civil unrest occur.  In short, though I didn’t realize it at the time, I was born and raised in a prepper’s paradise.  Then, against all odds, I found a beautiful woman who loved me back and we’ve been building a life together for the last 12 years.

However, once we got married, we joined the world of corporate America in order to be able to make the kind of living that we wanted for ourselves in the “new” economy.  Unfortunately, our company underwent some “consolidation” and shut down the office in our hometown.  My wife and I (who both work for the same business) were tasked with a choice:  both face unemployment and risk becoming part of the foreclosure statistics on American home owners, or follow our jobs and move far from friends and family out into the Midwest.  It wasn’t an easy decision, but with the prospect of starting a family of our own right around the corner, there was no choice but to bite the bullet and take a chance on building a better life.  With only a three month window to find and purchase a new home, we ended up settling in a large subdivision on the outskirts of a major metropolitan area near our new place of employment.

Back in Tennessee, our home was a two story brick house with a sizable basement, snuggled into the side of a heavily wooded mountain.  However, due to the higher prices of real estate in our new area, we ended up in a single story wood-framed house built onto a concrete slab, surrounded by hundreds of nearly identical homes.  We are less than 10 miles from one of the largest cities in the continental United States, and to make matters worse, our home is actually visible from one of the major interstates that feed into the city.  In other words, like most of Middle America, my new house is a nightmare in terms of survivability should any major collapse of society occur.  Yet, for that very reason, immediately bugging out during a time of crisis is not an option, due to some of the following factors:

  • Living near a major population center means that when food/water/electricity go into short supply, everyone is going to have the same idea: get out of Dodge.
  • The major roadways around our home become near parking lots during rush hour every day as it is.  In a disaster, those traffic pileups are likely to become semi-permanent.
  • Since a lot of people in large cities don’t commute via cars, during the mass exodus to escape, those who do have working transportation will become immediate targets.
  • Furthermore, like the swarm of locusts of Biblical lore, a large group of people trying to flee an area on foot are likely to consume every resource in their path, one way or another.  While they may not have cars, it’s extremely likely that whether it’s a golf club or a Glock, some will be armed.

Therefore, for all these reasons and more, a more nuanced approach is required.  As much as we would like to, getting back to friends and family in the mountains of Tennessee just probably won’t be an option in the short term.  This means bugging in and hoping to ride out the worst of it until such a time that either:

  • We deem the situation fit to travel via the back roads and reach a more defensible location back home with our families.

Or,

  • The turmoil in our area has cooled to a point that we can start trying to become self-sustainable here in our community without fear of reprisal (openly gardening, hunting, fishing, etc.)

Either way, the name of the game becomes surviving the short term fallout that is bound to follow any collapse of basic societal structure.  Following Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, it becomes pretty easy to map out the way that things will probably play out.  Our lives, like it or not, are ruled by this chart.  Surviving the “exodus” near a major city means two things:  Having the basics in the bottom row of that pyramid covered for up to a 6-month time period for you and your family and having the means to defend it from those who will want to take it from you.  However, there are unique challenges to achieving either of these goals when living in a matchstick house on a concrete block amidst hundreds of other families and within spitting distance of millions of potentially hostile people.

Let’s start with the first part, meeting your needs.  There are plenty of preparation checklists out there with great advice on every little thing that you might need to survive the apocalypse.  I’m going to assume that you know how to cover the basics of food/water/medicine storage.  However, there are a few extra things to consider when living in the suburbs.  Basic bunker mentality for bugging in during a crisis follows the “dig in and defend” model.  We’ll call this the tortoise approach.  That’s great if you have the means to make it work, however, there’s nothing particularly defensible about many people’s homes, mine included, so that mentality has to change.  For me it has become “avoid detection and deter”.  My home doesn’t have a basement, a bunker, or a safe room, so the idea of holing up in a fortified spot with enough firepower to hold off the mob just isn’t feasible.  Instead, I want to present a small target and make it as unappetizing to potential looters as possible.  Think less snapping turtle, more porcupine.

Back to Maslow’s handy dandy pyramid of preparedness priorities, we know that water is the number one driving force of human survival behavior.  Once the taps stop running and the Aquafina has flown off the shelves, it will be a matter of a few short days before people either leave their homes in search of greener pastures (lakes, rivers, etc.) or start to beg, borrow, plead, and potentially kill to take water from those who still have it.  Here are some things to remember about water storage in the ‘burbs.

  • Diversify your storage.  Like the old adage says, don’t keep all your eggs in one basket (this includes brands, types of containers, and storage locations).
  • You should try to have at least 100 potential gallons per person in your house at any given time, and stored in a variety of places around your home.
  • Keep emergency water containers clean, dry, and ready to be filled at a moment’s notice.
  • My solutions include:

It’s been said over and over, but it is the truest statement in this world: water is life.  Storing water in this way, even if a portion of my home becomes damaged or inaccessible, I’ll still have enough to survive the short term and reevaluate the situation.  Eventually, though, even the largest supplies will run dry.  In this case, you need to be able to answer these questions:

  • Where is my nearest source of clean water (stream, river, large lake, etc.)?
  • Is it easily reachable by foot, under cover of darkness?
  • If not, how likely am I to be able to reach it by car?
  • Do I have an easy way to transport it back to my home?
  • Can I protect myself during this process?
  • Do I have some way to make sure it’s safe (boiling, filters, water treatments, etc.)?

Next on the list comes food storage, and this is another topic that is covered ad nauseam in any number of preparedness web sites and books.  But the important thing to remember for our purposes is that not only do you need to have food, but you need to not draw attention to the fact that you have food.  Nothing brings uninvited guests to the party quite like the smell of fresh beef stew when they haven’t eaten a thing in weeks.  In fact, they’re likely to bring their own silverware if you catch my drift.  Here are some ways to keep that from happening:

  • Avoid storing foods that have to be cooked in an open container or that put off a strong or unique odor.
  • Avoid heating methods that produce smoke or have to be ventilated in any way.
  • Don’t store foods that require much, if any, water to prepare.  Water is going to be your number one resource; you can’t waste a drop that you don’t have to.
  • Try to cut down on trash as much as possible (i.e. large resealable containers as opposed to individually packaged and disposable containers).  Trash has to be disposed of at some point and is a clear indicator that someone is still taking the wrappers off of candy bars.
  • Keep calorie intake healthy, but to a minimum.  Being the only guy in the neighborhood who still has a double chin is another red flag.
  • Don’t use a generator for any reason, ever.  In an isolated location, with proper noise reduction and ventilation, it’s a viable choice.  But nothing says “come burn my house down and take my stuff” like being the one family that has electricity when the darkness comes.

The whole goal here is to fly under the radar as much as possible.  Shelf stable foods that don’t have to be cooked at all are ideal.  Think mixed nuts, dry cereals, beef jerky, and the like.  These types of foods are also much more convenient to transport and prepare should you have to bail out.  Self-heating MREs are also a fantastic option but do require water to prepare and are easy to get burnt out on after a while.  While it’s no fun to have very few fresh hot meals, survival in the midst of the fleeing hordes revolves around avoiding notice at all costs.  You may not be happy, but you’ll be alive.

The last piece of the puzzle is the hardest, but also the most important: defense.  A quiet, middle-class suburb is a pretty appetizing target to people in a desperate search for the basic necessities of life.  All of the supplies in the world won’t mean a thing if you can’t defend them.  However, the key is to not to attract any unnecessary notice and to make your home an inadvisable target.  Some potential tools for getting this job done include:

  • Door Crossbar Holders:  These can be installed quickly during a time of chaos with nothing but a cordless drill, some heavy duty wood screws, and some spare 2x4s.  Putting up at least two sets per door means that the old police trick of “kick and breach” won’t be quite so easy.  It also stops the more subtle “lockpick in the night” routine.  Remember, the goal here isn’t to make the entryway impregnable (which is nigh impossible in a wood and drywall home), but rather to buy some time to defend.
  • Biohazard Signs:  If pandemic is the trigger that starts the collapse, one of these signs on each door is tantamount to installing an invisible force field around your home.  Even if it’s something more plausible, like a global economic collapse, looters are much more likely to target the house that they think won’t give them cholera.
  • Window Privacy Film:  It’s ok for people to know that your home is still occupied.  In fact, an abandoned house is far more likely to be ransacked than one that is thought to still be defended.  Letting people pinpoint your exact location before an attack, however, could cost you your life.  With this upgrade (along with normal blinds/curtains) you can still use lanterns, headlamps, etc. without giving away where you’ve chosen to bed down.
  • Window Bars:  Again, the keys here are speed/ease of installation and deterrence.  You don’t need to protect your windows from a full SWAT team with breaching charges, just dehydrated, half-starved city folks looking for some free supplies.  These bars give you time to line up a clear shot from behind cover and make sure that the person trying to get in realizes the risk vs. the reward.

It’s also important to designate a small fallback area within your home and use this as the staging area for everything else you do.  This way if part of your home becomes compromised it’s not a total loss.  While your “Alamo” may not be a fortress, it should be a place with as few windows and doors as possible and a clear field of fire.   Ours is the large master bathroom with an attached walk-in closet.  The only window in the bathroom is small, octagonal, made of thick frosted glass, and about 8 feet off the ground.  Once things look to be turning south, all our supplies can be quickly moved to the closet, the bathroom door triple barred, and the window filmed over.  The two Mossberg pump action 12 Gauge shotguns with 500+ magnum slug shells that live in the closet provide the “deter” portion of the game plan.

Finally, if possible, it’s also great to have a “plan C” just in case.  If your home catches fire, is completely overrun, or for some other reason becomes uninhabitable, you may have to leave in a hurry.  Fortunately for us, there is attic access in both the walk-in closet and our garage, with only about 20 feet of crawlspace between the two.  Hiding a couple of bug-out backpacks in the crawlspace allows us a fairly covert escape route directly to the car, or at the very least, out of the house.  Planning everything needed to bail out and stay safe on the run in a completely different topic in and of itself, but just keep in mind that bug-out supplies are similar to bug-in supplies, just on a much smaller, more mobile scale.  It’s not a perfect scenario, but having a “last ditch effort” retreat solution is never a bad thing. 

At the end of the day, I think it’s very feasible to sit tight and ride out the initial panic of any major catastrophe, even in a less than fortified location.  When the lights go out and the trucks stop running, places in and around major cities are going to revert to the Wild West fairly quickly.  But it’s for that very reason that staying put is the best option.  When the world around you is chaos, there are too many things that can go wrong by stepping out into the maelstrom, even if the goal is getting to a safer location.  It’s hard to predict exactly how things will go down and Murphy’s Law will bite you on the butt any time you think you’ve got it all figured out.  In any event, by keeping a low profile, deterring looters if possible, and using force if necessary, I think that we suburbanites stand a pretty good chance of making it through the first few months of TEOTWAWKI relatively unscathed.  And that, my friends, is what it is all about.

 

Letter Re: Finding Virtue in Potatoes

Hello Mr. Rawles,
About two years ago, there were letters in SurvivalBlog discussing the virtues of wheat and the deficiencies of potatoes as survival food. The common mood was that the potatoes were too bulky and fragile food needing special conditions for storage and not allowing to keep seeds for two or more years so the single bad year will be disaster.

I live in Russia. Here, there were lots of periods of hunger during first years of Soviet power. The Ukraine, Volga region, and so on. The NKVD reported of mass executions of cannibalism, and deaths due to hunger were commonplace. But this mass starvation was not so severe in Belorussia.

Some time ago I met the explanation of this Belorussian anomaly: While the Ukraine and other hunger regions were growing wheat, Belorussians were growing potatoes. This food was too bulky and fragile and needing special conditions for storage, so it was impossible or at least too expensive for Bolsheviks to transport and store the confiscated food. It was much easier to confiscate wheat.

I believe that future governments will confiscate anything needed for their (not our) survival. Sapienti sat, – Anatoly

Letter Re: Recommendation for the Movie “For Greater Glory”

Dear Friends,
My wife and I attended the opening-day showing of the new movie For Greater Glory, about the Cristiada Rebellion at a theater in Spokane last night. It is the amazing and stirring story of the 1920s Mexican civil war fomented by a revolutionary government against Catholic churches, leaders, and worshipers.

The attendance was what you would expect with this movie competing against several summer blockbusters. The movie’s production values are not as high as the tens-of-millions-of-dollars CGI extravaganzas, but still an A-quality production. The actors are convincing, the movie engrossing, no slow or boring parts, and it tells the story clearly and forcefully without, I might add, being preachy.

I’ve read a half-dozen reviews of the movie, including one in a Christian news magazine and one in the local newspaper that were infuriatingly critical, shallow, or missed the point of the movie altogether. There is no comparison between “For Greater Glory” and “The Avengers” – that would be like comparing a pickup truck to fireworks and asking which one was better. One has a purpose and is useful, the other merely great entertainment, but empty.

“For Greater Glory” means something. It will make you think. It will move you. It will make you wonder how come we never knew about this conflict with 90,000 dead, even though the daughter of the General (who is the central figure of the movie) only passed away in 2010. Who knew?

This movie will make you appreciate the wisdom on Reverend Martin Niemoeller’s famous quote “First they came…”, how that gradual process could have happened in Mexico, and how it could happen in the United States. It will make you appreciate how destructive and awful civil war is, but that war is not the worst thing imaginable.

Most of all it will make you realize that there is a price for loving liberty, for putting God first, for choosing truth, for taking a stand for justice. And that simply because your cause is right is no guarantee that you personally will not give your life for it. This movie will help you consider what IS worth living and dying for, and to make your peace with all of the possibilities should conflict ever come to our shores.

Don’t let people tell you this movie is some kind of Catholic propaganda piece. It’s production was begun before the current controversy over ObamaCare. If anything it’s timing is providential. Along with movies like the highly-recommended Defiance, it is a powerful and moving visual antidote to the modern passivity and tolerance of growing tyranny.

Just be warned, the film has an “R” rating because of its graphic images (not gory, but definitely disturbing), and the theater chain decided it would be appropriate to show trailers for several other “R” movies that are wholly inappropriate for conservative audiences, including an upcoming movie that appears to directly trash Christianity!

I’d like to encourage everyone to sit through the main body of the credits because the movie’s close shows actual pictures from that war. To look at the faces of the actual persons whose story was told in the movie was powerful.

Hollywood production companies shunned this story. I’m hoping preppers, Christians and conservatives alike will all support this movie and ponder what it means to us in our day.

Trust God. Be Prepared. The time is now! – ShepherdFarmerGeek

Economics and Investing:

Jim W. suggested this chilling piece abut the next wave of house price declines: Keith Jurow: Prepare For The Coming Housing Collapse

Greek energy crisis could cause national power blackout in June. (Thanks to Ian R. for the link.)

PIMCO’s Gross warns of economic “breaking point”

Nobel Laureate Says Globe Headed For Financial “Breakdown” and “Radicalism”

Chris G. flagged this bad news: Time Bomb? Banks Pressured to Buy Government Debt

Items from The Economatrix:

Some derivatives news: The Second Act of the JPM CIO Fiasco Has Arrived — Mismarking Hundreds of Billions in Credit Default Swaps

Another Housing Collapse Is Coming Soon

What’s Next For Gold And Silver?

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader James C. pointed me top a massive collection (14.1 Gigabytes!) of free preparedness and self-sufficiency documents, provided Pole Shift Survival Information.

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Dena K. sent this: Novo’s Insulin Pill Quest is Holy Grail for Diabetics

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Pre-Collapse Ramp Up:  Retailers Stock Up On Shutters, Organize Security Details Ahead Of Financial Meltdown And Social Unrest.

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Reader David P. mention that an early commander of SFOD-D (and later, all of SOCOM) General W.G. “Jerry” Boykin has an interesting web site.

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More of Mayor Bloomberg’s civilian disarmament scheming: Scandal: Cities Pay Anti-Gun Lobbyists. (Our thanks to James C. for sending the link.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“But God, who is rich in mercy, for his great love wherewith he loved us,
Even when we were dead in sins, hath quickened us together with Christ, (by grace ye are saved;)
And hath raised [us] up together, and made [us] sit together in heavenly [places] in Christ Jesus:
That in the ages to come he might shew the exceeding riches of his grace in [his] kindness toward us through Christ Jesus.
For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: [it is] the gift of God:
Not of works, lest any man should boast.” – Ephesians 2:4-9 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present the first entry for Round 41 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 41 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

A House Purchasing Guide for Rookies

Taxes
One of the questions I was asked that prompted creating this document, was that of a comparison of tax basis for home purchase decisions. Its very hard for me to appropriately answer, as the question of comparison is largely based on the entities in the county in question. I can tell you that differences in South Western and Central Wisconsin counties are negligible (although they can vary higher in larger municipalities and vacation destinations such as Madison and Lake Geneva.) For most rural properties, its quite comparable based on zoning and use. The question I believe was prompted in a comparison of retirement/BOL spots – but the answer is actually simple to arrive at as the numbers are public and readily available – Almost all counties publish their tax rates on their public web sites. If you are concerned, it will take about four minutes to research both the specific property, as well as side by side comparisons of the various townships in the county (and often the state as a whole.)

Finance
Mortgages are available – but you have to work a bit harder these days… The last time I bought property, I think arranging financing took 25 minutes. While I don’t particularly appreciate the paperwork, I understand why the banks are doing it. I will say this; it is well worth having multiple budget conversations with your partner/spouse before you even begin this process.  Our mortgage will be at a great rate, I am happy to buy now instead of trying to “time” the market for another drop.  One other note, despite having a relationship that includes personal and business accounts that are sizeable with one of the largest banks in the world, I have chosen to place this mortgage with the small community bank in the rural city we are moving to. The rates are competitive, the service is the same to me (for most people it will be better,) but the contacts and inroads into the community are strategic and could pay off down the road.

Budget
Any real estate book or web site will tell you the following – but for the sake of you other male gorillas having the budget talk with the fairer sex, and to ensure peace in your home, let me break it down for you in the elemental terms for the sake of the aforementioned budget conversation that must take place (and preferably before anything else takes place!)

  1. Down payment – the house you can afford is a function of 20% down of the final purchase price and the 30 years of monthly payments (that should be small enough to pay off long before 30 years by making extra principal payments.) i.e. House is $100,000, you need to have $20,000 on hand in cash for closing, and be able to afford approximately $750 a month (with money you can throw on top of the $750 when you have spare cash.) By the way – do not even consider one of the slimy deals and lenders who offer home ownership with “zero down.” The bottom line is that for any number of reasons which are a finance manual, you will wind up in trouble in one of those deals. That is fact. Harsh. True.
  2. Will you be able to afford the fixer-upper things you need to do to make the home “yours” after the above mentioned down payment? Are they cosmetic and cheap? Structural and pricey? Have you added some emergency padding to this number?
  3. Do you have your current home sold (if owned) or can you afford two payments for some period of time? As we are moving, we are purchasing, with the knowledge that we can afford both payments until I find a new gig and physically move to our new home in our new city.
  4. Do you have income in your new home location? i.e. this document is being written when we are moving to a new city, meaning my move will physically be when I find a job in the new city, not when we actually buy the home in a few weeks. For those wondering, we are moving for family, lifestyle, and other reasons – but not because a job has taken us there. Luckily we have the luxury of time! And we are purchasing a home we can afford while still making payments on our other home until the actual migration. As an aside, as we can afford two locations, we can then relax a bit on the fixer-upper requirements, and go to the new place on weekends to fix it up, while living in our current home (this is obviously also a function of geography – our new home is just under 4 hours away.)
  5. Can you afford the other things your new home will need? I for example, will need to buy a tractor, or pay a landscaping service – the little push mower just isn’t going to get the job done.
  6. Have you considered the moving costs? I happen to have family both in current and destination cities that will help load and unload my truck and trailer (which I don’t have to rent.)
  7. I discussed taxes above in terms of comparison – but make sure you can pay the tax on the property, understand how it is calculated in the locations you are looking, and what you can do to mitigate some of the burden. Definitely check out the state credits for agriculture use, nature preserve lands, and particular home assessments such as bedroom count, school district, appraised value, etc. Do not be afraid to ask for a reassessment, but do not count on a reassessment to drop the tax basis at all.

Agents Brokers Realtors Used Car Salesmen
Real estate is a sales business. People are selling their home. People are selling you on the idea of buying a home. Take it all with a grain of salt – or a shaker full.
The legal structure varies by state. In Wisconsin where we are buying and moving, there are four types of legal agent relationships. Seriously, you need a law degree to understand the nuances and fiduciary relationships. It is messed up.

Let me take a step back, for complete rookies. A home is being sold for $100,000. The two agents (for buyer and seller) agree to split a 5% (for example) (in our case $5,000) commission. Think about this logically – your agent as the buyer of the property is being compensated as a percentage of the closing price. S/he is being incentivized to get you to agree to pay more money! I kid you not, that is how it traditionally works. If your agent is scum and happens to be short on cash this month, if they are great at sales and get you to pay $110,000 instead of negotiating on your behalf to $90,000, then they earn more money! I have yet to experience another business in this world that is so completely structured to fleece the client – and where the client is normally not sophisticated enough, or activist enough, to call Bravo Sierra on it. Just stop it!

I’m sure that i will get multiple hate e-mails for the preceding paragraph, but the residential real estate industry knows it is their Achilles heel, but are afraid of that gravy train disappearing. They have all sorts of arguments of the differential profit not being enough to convince them to breach their ethics (just like our politicians.) For example: That their business relies on referrals and repeat business, so they would be shortsighted to do this. And that they have a legal or fiduciary responsibility to you. Yes, I have heard them all – but the fact is your mortgage and food and boat and vacation are all being paid by my paying more for my house and having a bigger mortgage.

THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE
No matter how many different types of agent your state has, I have not heard of a state that bars the type of agent you must search for – the exclusive buyer’s agent. This agent does not sell homes. They do not have any agents or brokers in their office that do sell homes. They normally have a specific pride in the fact that they offer flat fees, and work exclusively on the buyer’s behalf – never entering a relationship, nor even trying to segment their office, into a way that could be remotely misconstrued as anything other than your strict advocate! If they aren’t working for you – they are working against you. Period.  Don’t you owe it to yourself to work with the best tools, the best people, and to secure the future of your family and budget? Why put yourself anywhere near a position to not get the best for yourself?

Criteria for House Hunting
After your budget conversation, you and the better half will most likely want to go out and find your new castle. Before you do, have a brief conversation where you develop a list of needs and wants, and then rank them.
Things to consider include, but are not limited to:
Schools (we don’t have kids, but if we did, this would rise to #1 or at least top three on our list)
Community
Spiritual community
Water (I wanted a year round stream, the better half wanted to finish the darn conversation and have bagels)
Type of home (she was okay with siding, I wanted brick, she liked bungalow, I preferred ranch)
Size of home (are you intending to grow your family, are you an empty nester, do you plan for multiple guests to have bedrooms or the couch)
Size of property (we all want bigger unless we are retiring, but it does affect taxes, time to maintain, etc, sometimes enough is enough)
HOA (I say, “Just say no” to HOAs.)
Bedrooms
Bathrooms
How much fix up are you willing to deal with

House Hunting
You must do the work, do not expect your exclusive buyers agent (you did decide to find one right?) to do it for you. Sure they will show you a couple of great properties they know of. Sure they will sign you up for automated emails that notify you of new homes that match your search criteria. However, you need to do some of the lifting. Truth be told, if your better half is anything like mine, the house hunt will be an all-consuming lunacy fever that takes hold. In this day of Trulia and Zillow, you can do it easily from the couchm, so do so. It is particularly useful for folks like us, who were less concerned about a specific locale, and more about a region – as both web sites allow you to place filters on the search, and then call up a map that is navigable with homes pinned on it that match.
Take your time.
Do not rush.
Do not be talked into rushing.
Do not take anything for granted – even questioning your advocate.

Foreclosure and Short Sale Homes
Foreclosure – bank owned, as the prior owners failed to pay their mortgage and the bank took possession.
Short Sale – the owners can no longer afford the home, and are attempting, with bank permission, to sell it to someone who can before they are tossed out.
There are an awful lot of both the above types of home on the market. It’s a sad state of affairs for all of us, even those not directly involved, as it is dragging down our entire nation (amongst many other issues.)
Do not be afraid to view and purchase either type of property, but do understand that while you can find great value in these homes, you will have to jump through a few hoops. Go ahead and ask your agent (before choosing one) how comfortable they are with that process, should you decide to attempt to purchase one. Its quite advantageous, particularly in these cases (but should be considered in all cases) to get pre-approval for a mortgage from your lender of choice. And no, you do not have to use the lending services of the bank that owns the foreclosed or short sale home.

Making an Offer
Holy cow – this one threw me for a loop. I really never even contemplated this being an issue. Silly me. This was the first major purchase the better half and I made together – her last car that we purchased was used and cheap, no haggle. My truck I purchased on my own. Our deal making styles were polar opposites. Our home is a 50.001% dictatorship, to my favor. In this rare case I put my foot down. When the lady informed me that negotiating was distasteful, I had to slam the brakes on and explain a few things. Use whatever argument you want, or precede the process with a discussion of your tactical approach to real estate – but this is the financial future of your family. Be ethical. But get yourself the best darned deal you can. Always. If neither of you are good negotiators make sure your agent is. If the agent isn’t hire a litigator, or someone else who is. But every cent you don’t spend, is a cent in your pocket. I don’t care if you don’t like negotiating. You don’t have to like it. You just have to do it – and do it well – or find someone who can.

Our Recent Home Purchase Story
We were idly thinking about moving last fall, and on a trip to visit family arranged for a showing of a home we randomly found online, and that looked reasonable. Our agent (who assisted in 3 different home purchases for family in the past two years in the area) suggested that we find 2-4 other homes in the area to look at – and to make a day of it. We were driving four hours anyhow, and since these are rural properties, it made the best use of his time to devote half a day to a client. No problem.

The first home we saw, the wife loved (notice this, it will become a theme if your better half is like mine – in our entire purchase story, she fell in love with about 12 homes, was ambivalent about three or so, and hated only one!) but I didn’t care for as it was way to much fixer upper work. I foresaw a 3-4 year project doing it ourselves nights and weekends all while living in an ongoing project, or doubling the price to pay a contractor to do it. The third and fourth homes, were okay but not great.

But that second home the first day? We both loved. It was fantastic for both of us – and we have radically different tastes. Long story short, we were outbid by another purchaser, but stuck to our guns and didn’t overpay for our budget and value estimate. (I am glossing over the emotional roller coaster, the lack of information, and the pain in the rear factor of this process.) It was a foreclosure being sold as-is, and it was a massive blessing in disguise. Being a small town, we heard the gossip a month after we lost the deal – the new owners were in, and discovered a fault in the foundation, the need for a new septic system, and a leaky roof. Estimates were $18,000-to-$40,000 in out of pocket repairs – not wrapped into a mortgage. That’s a lot of money when you just sank a massive amount of cash into a down payment.
We kept looking. We didn’t agree on anything. She had an emotional argument that demanded a new home now – she gets these notions… I had a project at work that took me international and bought me a brief respite.

We kept looking.
We saw a home that looked good online, and called our agent. Keep in mind, your agent may have slightly more information than you can see on Zillow or Trulia. The home had an accepted offer on it already that didn’t show online.
Remember that earlier I suggested you question even your advocate?
I asked that he do us a favor and make a 30 second phone call to the selling agent to confirm status.
To our agents shock, the seller’s agent said that their deal may be falling apart, and the seller would welcome us to come take a look with the understanding that we would be a secondary offer only if the other folks found themselves in breach of contract. This is rare – and the only reason we were able to find our dream home is that we kept politely questioning even the experts, and no other purchaser got past the online listing, the advice of their agents that it was under contract, the human laziness, and the norms.

We grabbed our dogs, hit the road, and went to have a look. We loved it and made a secondary offer that day.
There were back and forth counter-offers, and we were still the secondary offer.
We were again in the limbo of not knowing. We didn’t know when the primary contract would default. We didn’t know the primary offer amount. We did know were getting nothing but paper counter offers – and were not negotiating across a table with a person. For an old poker player like me, this is frustrating as the traditional advice is “play the man, not the cards.”

Finally, after about two weeks of this super frustration, and with our original offer expired; I resorted to a negotiation strategy that is not recommended other than in dire circumstances, it is a scorched earth strategy that will kill the deal, or get you an incredible value. Also keep in mind that this resulted in a crazy fight with my better half who now owes me big time having lost the bet that this would work. Remember above how I explained that she didn’t like/believe in negotiations? Imagine that mindset wrapping around the course of action I was proposing. I “Godfather Offered” them. Remember that sub-story in Godfather Part II where the Godfather offers the record label guy $100,000 to release his godson from his contract, is told no in response, and then counters his own offer by then offering $50,000? It resulted in a severed horse head in the record producer’s bed, and the godson being released anyhow.

In our case, I was sick of getting kicked around, and was willing to walk away without the house if it didn’t work – so I sent a paper offer 10% lower than our original offer, with some strong wording that we would not be coming back to the table. That’s right, I didn’t bid it up to sweeten the deal. I guessed (as it turned out, correctly) that their deal was crumbling, and that they were panicking about being stuck with the property and having their secondary ace in the hole disappear. (I did have some other hints I am not detailing here that assisted me in taking this gamble.) They sent a single counter offer offering at 5% discount, and said we would be given a final decision in one weeks’ time taking us from secondary to primary at the agreed upon 5% discount. We accepted. We close in less than a month from writing this (if all things go well.)

In Summation
Do not be afraid to think outside the box!
Fight the good fight for yourself.
Be prepared to be gentle and kind with your better half – there is one heck of a lot of emotion that this process will bring to the surface.
Get the best tools for the job.
Be realistic (well you are preppers – so I assume you are better at this than most.)
Do your pre-work, do your homework, follow up, question everything.
Be your own darned advocate, even when you have positioned yourself to have an adviser who is working nominally well on your behalf.

JWR Adds: Land and house purchases should be made dispassionately. There is a lot of psychology to the process, some of it is overt, and some subtle. For example, note that real estate agents always refer to the structure as a “house” to the seller, and as a “home” to the buyer. Be honest about the debt level that you can afford. Always do your due diligence. If in the slightest doubt, then have things inspected by experts. The costs of inspections are minimal (certainly versus the subsequent cost of repairs), and keep in mind that the inspection reports can be used as leverage when negotiating your offer. Don’t be afraid to negotiate aggressively, especially in today’s declining market. Also, shop around for both the best house and the best lender. Note that there are some great retreat properties available at our spin-off site, SurvivalRealty.com