Letter Re: A Low Tech Aids for Some Sleep Apnea Sufferers

Dear Editor:
I suffer sleep disruption and was prescribed apnea treatment. First a CPAP then a BIPAP machine. Neither of those were right for me, so my doctor put me on ProVent nose plugs. These are little disposable stickers with one-way valves, which seal up your nostrils; you can breathe in but are forced to breathe out through your mouth, so you don’t get throat blockage.

Not only did they work better for me, but I realized that since they don’t use electricity they’re great for grid-down situations. Score!

Their downsides are ongoing availability in a TEOTWAWKI situation, dry throat (so I keep water by the bed) and they’re not covered by my insurance, so they’re very expensive. $60 per month for some stickers!

I discovered that I could re-use them if I washed my nose well (got rid of oils) and dried my nose before applying. I was able to get 2-4 nights per set. But then I wondered what else I could do. I tried taping my nostrils shut with Band-Aids, and it worked! Not as well — dry throat got slightly worse, and it’s not as comfortable — but I’m still sleeping well through the night.

I clean my whole nose with soap and dry it. Then I gently tape both nostrils shut with one Band-Aid, leaving just a small gap for a little bit of air to pass. I use real Band-Aids, which stick very well; not cheap knock-offs. I use a second Band-Aid across the top of the nose to hold the sides of the first Band-Aid, to keep it from falling off. Then I drink a big glass of water and off to bed.

I’m glad I started with ProVents just to get accustomed to mouth breathing. The starter kit was $20. I can imagine that going cold turkey to Band-Aids would have been too difficult, so I’m glad I started with ProVent. But now I don’t need them.

My next change will be to a high-quality swimmer’s nose plug. Speedo plugs get good reviews on Amazon, and they’re less than $10. I’ll get two of them, for two is one and one is none 🙂

Maybe your readers with apnea will consider asking their doctor about ProVents. They’re not for everyone; my doctor told me if you have congestion you’ll find them difficult to tolerate. On the other hand my Band-Aid solution is like having permanent congestion, so maybe they are still an option.

Thanks for what you do, and God bless! – V.C.D.

Letter Re: Don’t Stockpile, Get Global — Conversations with a Rhodesian Expat and Being Financially Global

Dear Jim,
My mantra has always been “In a world of uncertainty….Diversify!”  Sure, it does make sense to stockpile (only to a rational degree) at one’s primary location and at one’s primary retreat.  However, this stockpiling should not be done beyond the optimal level such that it would disallow planning for other contingencies.  You are correct that “other” countries may be worse off than the US in the event of, for example, a financial collapse….but that does not preclude these other countries being a better option in the event of other sorts of problems.  Other more localized issues might include domestic political unrest, climatic changes or disasters, legal changes that preclude staying in your primary locale, etc.  Rhodesians, of course, know all too well about the latter.  Similarly, it would be totally irrational to place all one’s eggs (or even most of them) in a single or even a few foreign baskets.  I believe it does make a great deal of sense, however, to keep two or three foreign bank accounts with say $1,500-$2,000 in each.  From my experience during the Arab Spring, I can tell you that there is a world of difference between being a refugee and a being refugee with even temporarily sufficient means.  Fleeing domestic political unrest and arriving with the clothes on your back is infinitely inferior to arriving in a foreign country with $2,000 in the bank to pay a month’s rent and buy groceries while you, as the Rhodesian’s often say, “Make a plan”.  That time to breathe and regroup is absolutely invaluable let me tell you.  

As I said, one does not want to park vast sums of money in these places but, depending on where one’s social or familial support mechanism resides, having a few bucks or even a land title stashed away in Canada, Europe, Belize or elsewhere is a very decent and rational idea as part (only part!) of a larger prepping plan.  A potential retort to all of this, of course, is to horde gold and silver and cash outside the domestic financial structure so that one’s wealth can be transported anywhere they might choose to flee.  While this seems like a great idea, and I know someone who did it with diamonds upon leaving South Africa decades ago, for practical purposes it might be a bit tricky to transport cash or gold outside the country in the event of a major disaster.  Airports are probably not going to be friendly places for people trying to do this.  Further, given the weight and size of many silver stashes, this might even be a more difficult option.  It seems a much better idea to diversify one’s positions before things go bad: to buy your geographic and financial insurance before you need it and where it most benefits you, and to own your umbrella before it starts raining.  

Best, – Eightbore

Economics and Investing:

SurvivalBlog reader S.O.B. sent this: “Gary Gordon, president of Pacific Park Financial, an investment advisory firm, says he is “not buying anything at the moment until the world rights its ship.” But for investors who do want to trade on a bearish view of the global economy, he suggests the….” S.O.B. ‘s left this biting comment: “So guys in the know are holding on to their cash and not investing in intangibles like ETFs. But they are happy to advise their clients to buy stuff they wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole, how nice.”

Some interesting observations at The Daily Bell: Fed Lies Unravel … [In 2008] Bank Board Gave US $4 Trillion in Loans to Its Own Institutions

Four recent articles from the excellent ETF Daily e-letter:

How Shorts on Gold ETFs are Nearing a Big Squeeze

Gerald Celente: This Thing [Financial System] is Coming Down
 
What is the Fiscal Cliff and What the Fiscal Cliff Means For You?
 
19 Reasons Why it is Time to Start Worrying About the Global Economy

Items from The Economatrix:

US Economy Downshifts to Lower Gear

Europe Imperils US Sales From Chemicals to PCs

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Pierre M. mentioned: Hyundai’s Zombie Apocalypse Survival Car. [JWR Asks: This zombie marketing is getting out of control. I see that MTM is already marketing Limited Edition Zombie Ammo Cans and Hornady is selling a new line of ZombieMax ammo from .380 to 12 Gauge. What’s next? Zombie Apocalypse collector Slurpee cups? Will Collins make special Zombie Slayer logo machetes? How about a Zombie Slayer ice cream flavor from Ben & Jerrys? Or a Zombie-theme political fundraiser? Oh, but wait, we’ve apparently already elected several Senators-For-Eternity that will keep getting elected long after they’ve assumed room temperature. And speaking of which, I have doubts about whether or not Barbara Boxer is still among the living. Those copious injections of Botox may have overcome the blood-brain barrier.]

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On a more serious note, Pierre also sent this: 4,000 years ago, solar caused climate changes massive civilization collapse

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Reader Mark A. sent this piece from Emily Miller of the The Washington Times: Gun ownership up, crime down.

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Blogger Kevin Swindle just posted an insightful review of my novel Survivors. Warning: It includes some plot spoilers.

Note from JWR:

Today we present another two entries for Round 41 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 41 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Coturnix (Japanese) Quail: The Biggest Little Homestead Bird, by Bigdtc in Maryland

I delved into raising quail by accident. What I mean by that is that a member of a local preparedness forum that I belong to (and administrate) posted some information about them and the idea that they could be a great homestead bird, either with or opposed to the standard chicken flock. My extensive research and admittedly short experience with them has lead me to some very positive conclusions about the Coturnix Quail.
First, these are truly amazing multi purpose birds. Not only can you get an end product of extremely nutrient and protein rich meat, but they can lay an egg nearly every day and amounting to 300 per year, starting at 6 weeks of age in their first year and will continue to lay for up to three or more years, although at a declining rate. Second, they are the rabbit of the bird world regarding breeding and feed conversion. Not that they can set eggs and have a few hatches a year. In fact, you’ll certainly need an incubator because rarely do Coturnix Quail ever set on eggs. They’ve been captive bred for so long now that [brooding behavior has] just been bred out over time. The upside is the egg production. With no eggs for the hens to set and hatch then raise, they will just continue to provide your egg a day unfettered by chick rearing. Third would be demand for eggs, meat and by-product of the birds.
Starting Out, the Incubator…

Raising quail is an easy proposition and requires little of your time if set up properly. First, you’ll need an incubator. These are easily home-made or may be purchased either used or new online. In any case, a decent new incubator is not terribly expensive. I started out looking around for used ones and found them at a few on places like Craigslist and eBay. I ended up finding a nice new model that suited me from GQF Manufacturing. The one I chose is model #2365 for $91.50 + shipping. This is a basic model that runs off of 12 VDC power and also comes with an inverter to plug it into your 120 volt electrical outlet. To a prepper, the benefits of the ability to run off of 12 VDC power is obvious. This model has a built in circulator fan that keeps the temperature in the incubator even. There is an automatic egg turner available that comes with quail egg sized cups, but I chose not to add this because of the additional electrical draw. The egg turner runs 24 hours a day. The incubator will hold over 100 quail eggs without the turner. The built in fan also runs all the time. Even so, drawing less then 3,000 Milliamps at maximum load even when the heating element comes on, a deep cell battery with little recharging should run it for the entire incubation period. Pick a warm spot in your house and it will run less often.

Got Eggs?…
Quail eggs are incredible as much as or maybe even more then chicken eggs. This applies to the health benefits as well as the very short incubation period and high hatch rates. Standard Coturnix Quail eggs only require 16-17 days to hatch. The Jumbo variety only takes 18 days. The incubator temperature should stay between 99.5 and 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Humidity should be kept in the 40-50% range until two days before hatch. Then, the incubator goes on “lock-down”. You should stop rotating the eggs and increase the humidity to 60% during lockdown. Once the chicks hatch and dry off, they can remain in the incubator for up to 12 hours. Then, it’s off to the brooder.

Quail eggs are quite small as compared to a chicken egg. Chicken eggs tend to be around 55 grams. Standard quail eggs are in the 10 – 12 gram range and jumbo varieties can be as much as 14+ grams.  So it takes 4-5 quail eggs to equal a chicken egg. The differences in quail egg nutrition as compared to a chicken egg are many. One 10 gram Coturnix Quail egg has 3 to 4 times the nutrition of a 55 gram chicken egg. It has 13% protein as compared to a chicken egg’s 11%, It has twice the vitamin B2 and vitamin A. Quail eggs also contain three times the amount of vitamin B1 as well.  You can also get 5 times the iron and potassium along with being rich in calcium and phosphorus. Furthermore, quail eggs have a good deal of good cholesterol and none of the bad cholesterol. Thanks to an ovamucoid protein contained in Coturnix Quail eggs, they do not cause allergies or diathesis. That same protein is helpful to those suffering from allergy symptoms and, in fact, there are allergy drugs derived from this same protein. Quail hatching eggs can be found on E-Bay and there are some great breeders out there as well. A quick internet search will be very productive in locating these breeders. Quail eggs taste slightly different then chicken eggs. One reason is that the quail eggs have a slightly higher yolk to white ratio. The quail eggs are “richer” and taste better in my opinion. A great tasting way to preserve them is pickling.  They can be used in place of chicken eggs in any recipe.

Raising Quail Chicks…
Once they leave the incubator, quail chicks should be placed in a brooder. A brooder is simply a warmed container large enough to hold your chicks until they can be put in permanent breeder cages or community pens. The brooder should be kept warm, starting out at 95-100 degrees, with decreasing temperatures as the chicks grow and feather out. I, and most others, use an infra-red heat lamp suspended over the brooder. You can tell if the temperatures are too cool for the chicks as they will bunch together and try to keep warm. If the chicks are too warm they will get as far from under the lamp as they can. Brooders can be made up of any container that is high enough for the chicks to not jump out. I use plastic storage  containers for brooders and they work very well and are easy to clean. For the first 3 days I use a shelf liner material for the chicks to walk on. Using something solid but disposable helps prevent leg development problems that might occur from using a looser material. After 3 days I use hardwood pellets of the type typically used for horse stalls. The pellets break down very slowly and are highly absorbent, making them long lasting. Avoid using softwood shavings like cedar or pine. The dusts from these are dangerous for the developing chicks. Also avoid shredded newspaper. If they try to consume it, and they usually will, it can become a choking hazard or impact their bowels. Watering the chicks must be done carefully as well. The waterer must not be deep enough for the chicks to drown in. It takes very little water for this to happen. I use small bottle caps for the first three days that has some marbles in it. You’ll need to dip a couple of the chick’s beaks into the water so they know what and where it is. The others will follow along. Quail should be feathered out by 5 -6 weeks and ready to go to breeder cages or pens.

On To Adulthood…
Quail reach sexual maturity in 6 weeks. This means the males will be mounting the hens and the hens will begin laying eggs. That’s right, 6 weeks! At this time they should be in their permanent surroundings. Some breeders use large breeder pens and some use small cages. Either will work but I find the breeder pens work best. These can be old rabbit cages or purpose built cages. I actually made mine from inexpensive plastic 55 gallon barrels that I laid on their sides and built wire floors into. They are very easy to clean, never rot and are waterproof. Coturnix Quail only require 1 square foot of floor space per bird. They are very cold hardy and heat tolerant. Cage them according to your local conditions. They should be protected from wind and rain and extreme (sub freezing) cold, otherwise they’ll be fine. Coturnix Quail very much enjoy sand baths. They will jump into the sandbox and lie on their sides and happily chirp. It’s a big deal to them. Use a small plastic shoe box sized container with children’s play sand. Breeder pens should contain 3-6 hens and one male. All of my excess males are culled at 6-8 weeks. They are at their best size for the table at that time.

Feeding…
Coturnix Quail require a very high protein diet. The feed should have a minimum of 22% protein or the quail will suffer. Some signs of lack of protein are feather picking and fighting. Most growers use a non-medicated game bird starter typically available at Southern States or Tractor Supply Company type feed stores. Check your local feed store and if they do not carry it then see if they can order or make it for you, most will. Quail can be fed this throughout their lives and will require no supplement with this type of feed. Although they do like occasional treats of leafy greens (mine love spinach more then I do) and insects like mealworms or black fly larvae. Your quail chicks can be fed the starter feed but it should be crushed lightly for their little digestive systems. In a “grid-down” situation, alternative feeds may be used. Mealworm raising is something I’ll be trying out soon. The mealworms or other insects, such as black fly larvae, in combination with thistle seed, garden and table scraps can keep your quail fed without commercial feed while maintaining their strict protein requirements.  Thistle is easily grown so I keep some viable seed on hand for harder times and I stockpile a few buckets as well.

Watering…
Quail should always have access to fresh, clean water. I use 32 oz. rabbit water bottles for my quail cages. These can keep as many as 5 quail in water for at least 24 hours a fill on the hottest of days. A self watering system would also work as well. Any of the nipple or cup type waters, typically used in chicken operations, will work fine. Be sure that your system is kept clean and ice free.

Got Quail?
Once your Coturnix Quail are laying eggs and you’re collecting and eating or hatching them, you’re ready to start culling birds. I hatch birds every 3 weeks. On this time table, I can keep us in quail meat and eggs as well as keeping fresh hens around to replace hens that are not laying or have produced through their maximum laying period. Quail can be culled any time after 6 weeks of age. That means that you can keep fresh meat around without refrigeration or freezers just by culling when needed. Quail are very easy to process. After some practice I can now butcher a quail in around 3 minutes each using only a pair of kitchen shears. I first hold the quail over my utility sink upside down. They will naturally extend their necks and I quickly remove it with one quick snip of the scissors. This is the most humane way I’ve found to perform this. After the bird settles, I remove the legs by cutting just below the knee joint. I then cut the wings at the joint where they meet the body. I then turn it in my hand and cut across the tail where it meets the body. I turn it around again and slide the scissors down its back between the skin and backbone. Peeling the skin off at that point is very easy. Once the skin is removed I cut along each side of the spine from that tail end. The entrails will come out with the removal of the spine. The bird can then be rinsed and is ready to store or eat. Quail meat is quite delicious and can be consumed any way that chicken can be prepared. It is moist and palatable with no “gamey” taste to them at all. Nutritionally, one Coturnix Quail has 20g protein and is very low in cholesterols and fats and is high in nutrients.

What Kind of Quail is that?
Standard Coturnix Quail are native to Asia and Europe and have been domesticated since ancient times. From this domestication, the Japanese Quail come in three main varieties. The choices are standard Coturnix Quail (Coturnix Coturnix Japonica), Jumbo Coturnix Quail and Texas A&M Coturnix Quail.  The standard Coturnix Quail do everything fast. They hatch fast at 16 to 17 days; they mature fast, are laying eggs and reach an ideal eating size at 6 weeks. These are the standard type from which the others varieties are derived. The Jumbo Coturnix variety is simply selectively bred Standard Coturnix Quail. The Jumbo variety will hatch in 18 – 19 days, and mature in around 8 weeks. They mature to a slightly larger weight then the standard sized Coturnix to nearly one pound. The Texas A&M Quail were selectively bred by Texas A&M University and are white in color, they typically sport a black or brown spot on their head. They hatch and mature like the Jumbo variety. Texas A&M differ from the other quail varieties in that they have a lighter colored meat. They are otherwise like the Jumbo Cotunix Quail. All of the quail varieties are very hardy and very rarely have health problems. They should be raised away from chickens, however, because they can transmit disease to each other.

Boy Quail Habits…
Male Coturnix Quail show much the same habits as other game birds. They are somewhat territorial and require access to 3-6 hens to be happy. Male Coturnix do crow but it’s nothing like a chicken. Their crow does not carry far and sounds much like any native wild bird you might hear close by. This means that Coturnix Quail are great for urban and suburban areas. They are very low-profile. Their mating habits appear a little rough and the hens will occasionally lose head feathers from courting activities. Any male that causes a hen to bleed badly or abuses a hen, and that does happen sometimes, should be culled. A good male takes good care of his girls. When you add treats to the pen, he will hover over the treat and emit a low grunting sound to invite them to what he found for them. He will also alert them to perceived danger with a quick series of grunts. Males can be identified by rust colored chest feathers, usually showing by around 5 weeks of age.

The Girls…
Female quail are generally referred to as hens like any other fowl. Females make no loud noises but can be quite vocal. They make a cricket chirping sound when they’re happy and “keep in touch” with their harem mates with low whistles. They will “bow” to you when you add treats to their cage and they will also puff and quiver their feathers. It’s very cute. Hens will occasionally fight. I’ve only seen this once but it can be brutal. I had one hen lose an eye to another hen. Hens displaying this behavior should be culled. Hens will usually ignore their eggs once they’ve laid them. Only about one in one thousand will set and hatch eggs. I have read of folks successfully setting quail eggs under bantam-sized chickens. Hens will only lay consistently year-round if given 14 hours of light. I have achieved this with a simple solar light set up over my opaque plastic barrel cages. A hen can be identified by her white chest feathers with small, black dots.

By-Products…
By-products from quail raising are many. Top of the list is their droppings. Very high in nutrients, composted quail manure is excellent for gardens and they’ll make a lot more of it then you think. Used quail egg shells go into compost as well. Feathers can be separated and used for stuffing for pillows, dyed for fly tying, crafts, etc. Cured quail skins can be sold and used for bird dog training and crafts.  Entrails and leftovers can be used for high quality pet food. I have sold them in pairs as pets as well. They make great pets requiring minimal care or space.

Summary:
Coturnix Quail are a nearly perfect pre and post SHTF food source. Eggs hatch in 16-17 days. They grow to eating size in only 6 weeks. Their feed conversion ratio is extremely high. The eggs and meat are very healthy and the eggs are considered somewhat medicinal (Coturnix Quail eggs have been used in Asian medicine for centuries). Eggs can be used in any way that a chicken egg can. They are great for pickling and may be sold to local drinking establishments or at flea markets. I sell my excess eggs to Asian restaurants, particularly sushi establishments. They fetch $5.00 for a 10 pack in my area… That’s $0.50 per egg!! I do discount for larger orders, though. Coturnix Quail eggs are quite “under the radar “as well, making them easy to sell to establishments and at farmer’s markets. Most state health agencies do not regulate sale of Coturnix Quail eggs because they are considered game birds and not “fowl” and are generally not regulated by state game officials because they are a non-native species(just don’t release them, they will not last very long in the wild anyway). Check your state regulations if you do decide to sell them for human consumption because all state laws vary. They require only 1 square foot for each bird of living space. They are very quiet making them great for OPSEC. Pens can be indoor, outdoor, breeder pens, colonies or even re-purposed outbuildings. They make a great trade item… Quail are delicious!

Some helpful quail links…
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=1831&page=147
Raising Mealworms
BackYardChickens Forum has an informative quail section

My foray into quail raising , including do it yourself details and pictures on building my 55 gallon drum breeder cages, brooders, finishing pens, incubator details and other experiences can be seen at MdPreparedness.com in the Gardening section of the forum. Regards, Bigdtc in Md.

Survival Planning Using the Military Decision Making Process, by A.J.

There are literally thousands of resources out there for the prepper and would-be survivalist giving advice on the best Bug-Out Bag (BOB), Bug-Out Vehicle (BOV), or necessities to pack into your Bug-out Bag (BOG) or the well stocked first aid kit.  All of this advice is great, however, one thing most of these references have in common is that they all tell the individual prepper he or she needs to assess his or her needs and current situation in order to determine their individual needs.  One thing I have noticed is the dearth of advice on HOW to plan for survival.  I propose using a tried and true tool that can easily be learned and is actually quite intuitive.
The US Military (as well as NATO partners and others) use what is known at the Military Decision Making Process, or MDMP, to plan every level of mission from a squad attack to the invasion of a foreign country.  The tool incorporates gathering all available information, developing Courses of Action (COAs), analyzing them, comparing the results, and deciding on a plan.  The level detail of the planning is dependent only on the amount of information available and the time one has to plan.  As a 25 year military veteran, I have discovered that I subconsciously use MDMP in virtually every decision I make, often without even realizing it, and you probably do as well.
MDMP is a seven step process consisting of:  Receipt of Mission, Mission Analysis, COA Development, COA Analysis, COA Comparison, COA Approval, and Orders Production.  After the plan is developed and briefed, rehearsals are conducted and then are always followed by an After Action Review or AAR.  Each of these steps is comprised of substeps.  I will take you through each of the steps and some of the more relevant substeps and give examples of how they apply to prepping.

  •  Receipt of Mission:  In the military, orders are passed from higher to lower and a subordinate staff will usually start planning off of their higher headquarters guidance and specified tasks.  Oftentimes, however, a commander owning battlespace will develop a plan on his own, based on broad overarching guidance from their higher.  This step, while simple, is critical.  The substeps include conducting an Initial Assessment, Updating Staff Estimates, and Preparing for Mission Analysis.  The outputs are generally Guidance from the Commander and a first Warning Order to subordinate units.

For the Prepper:  Obviously, you do not have a higher headquarters issuing you specified tasks, but you are a battlespace owner (your land, your house, your apartment) and you have been given guidance from such places as FEMA and other Federal Agencies, sites like Survivalblog.com, survival books and numerous other resources.  You have recognized the threat to yourselves and your families and are determined to develop a plan.  Step 1 for the Prepper includes gathering, and understanding, all of these guides, determining your basic requirement (shelter for you and your family of ‘X’, local threats (proximity to nuclear power plants or other high value/high risk targets, etc), pets, and so on.  Make a list.  Preparing for mission analysis is nothing more than gathering all your references together as well as planning tools you might need (note paper, dry erase boards, maps, manuals, lists, etc).

  •  Mission Analysis:  This step, in my humble opinion, is by far the most important step requiring the most detailed analysis and time.  Inputs to this step include the mission from higher, original estimates from the staff (of in the case of the individual prepper, yourself), and all facts and assumptions.  The substeps of Mission Analysis consist of Analysis of the Higher HQ Mission/Intent (See Step 1), Identify Specified and Implied Tasks, Review Task Organization and Assets, Determine Restrictions or Constraints, Assess Risk, and Identify Critical Facts and Assumptions.  Outputs from this step include:  Initial Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB), Restated Mission (5Ws), Commander’s Intent/Guidance, Warning Order 2, Staff Products, Battlefield Framework, and conduct Preliminary Movement.

For the Prepper:  After your have gathered all your products mentioned in step 1, make a list of all the things you NEED to do (specified tasks), and think you SHOULD do (implied tasks).  For example, you determine that you NEED to defend your family against marauders.  Implied tasks include acquiring weapons and ammunition and practice your marksmanship.  Write all these down on separate lists.  Your review of your task organization is straight forward; e.g.  I have a family of five (wife and three sons), and a dog.  Assets gets more detailed: e.g. an SUV that seats 7, is diesel powered and four wheel drive, and has a range of about 200 miles when fully loaded and full tank; a semi-automatic rifle, a deer rifle, a 12 gauge shotgun, a 9mm pistol, and a .38; a house on a ¼ acre lot in a sub-development with basement and a hunting cabin on a 200 acre lot in the mountains 45 miles from home.  Make this list detailed including all equipment and assets you have.  You will quickly realize where you are short once you have it all listed on paper.  Next are your restrictions and constraints.  Restrictions are imposed upon you such as laws and regulations, constraints are things beyond your control (such as my sons are too young to drive).  Next, assess risks to you and yours.  For example, there is a nuclear reactor 10 miles straight line distance from our house.  Finally, identify critical facts and assumptions.  These are hugely important and need more that a little brain power.  Examples of facts may be that my Bug Out Location is 45 miles away that can easily be reached by my SUV in any weather, however our sedan would not make the drive in deep snow.  The primary (and quickest) route takes us through a major metropolitan area of over 2 million people, the alternate route makes the drive more than an hour longer and through very rural areas.  Assumptions are critical to identify, but keep in mind that they must be valid and necessary based upon your analysis of the situation.  It might be fun to assume the zombie apocalypse, but probably not a valid or necessary assumption.  A more valid assumption may be that I will have enough warning to load our vehicles and reach our BOL before the SHTF, or that I won’t.  If I assume that I won’t, then that whole plan is not valid.

  •  Course of Action Development:  Develop at least two Courses of Action (COAs), three is better, but more than three is probably too many.  In this step the staff Analyzes Relative Combat Power (friendly  assets vs. the enemy’s  assets), Generate Options,  Array Initial Forces (where friendly forces are arrayed as well as the best information on the enemy are arrayed), Develop the Scheme of Maneuver, Assign Headquarters, and prepare COA statements and sketches.  The COA sketch is a one page (usually PowerPoint) diagram that shows a map of the plan with all the critical tasks listed along one side.   COAs need to pass the suitability, feasibility, acceptability, distinguishability, and completeness tests.  This means that the plans each need to be realistic given the assets, restraints, constraints, and assumptions listed in the previous step.  The two to three COAs need to be distinct from each other, not just minor variations of the same plan.  And they need to be complete.  Of course, they have to also be acceptable…. nuke ‘em all, is not an option.

For the Prepper:  Your COA development is very similar with just some minor tweaks from the military model.  Your relative combat power is listed in your assets (weapons, vehicles. etc) and your adversaries come from your assumptions (in a possible scenario one could anticipate groups of up to a half dozen armed marauders, well armed but poorly trained). Now is when you generate your options:  do I Bug In or Bug Out, for example?  You array your initial forces on a map:  we are here, they are there.  Developing your scheme of maneuver entails adding detail to your COAs.  If Bugging In, then you are in essence planning a defense.  What is your perimeter?  Where are your defenses, chokepoints, and vulnerabilities?  Where is your strongpoint?  If Bugging Out, what are your routes?  Where are you most vulnerable?  How are you moving (together or linking up at a rally point, for example)?  If your COA involves others, you would break individual or group tasks down at this point.  Who brings what to the party?  Who is responsible for food, fuel, ammo, shelter, and so on?  Finally, as much of this information as possible is arrayed on your sketches of your COAs so that the picture speaks for itself.

  •  Course of Action Analysis.  This step is known as wargaming.  The staff have gathered all the information available, determined assets available and the assets the enemy has, identified facts and assumptions, and developed a couple of plans.  Now the plan is put to the test in a table top exercise.  There are rules to wargaming.  At all times, remain unbiased towards a COA.  If someone want a COA to “win” it will.  Approach wargaming as an honest assessment of the plans to determine their strengths and weakness.  Next, list the advantages and disadvantages of each.  This is done as the wargaming progresses and is tracked on a board.  Continually assess the COA feasibility, acceptability, and suitability.  If, while wargaming, it is determined a COA just won’t work, then we stop wargaming it.  No sense of wasting time on a plan that is impossible to accomplish.  Next, avoid drawing premature conclusions and gathering facts to support such conclusions.  This is a scientific process and picking and choosing information to support one COA over the other is not an option.  Finally, compare the COAs in the next step, not during wargaming.  When wargaming, focus on one COA at a time, from start to finish, without discussing how this COA has an advantage over the other.  Wargaming takes preparation.  All the tools used for wargaming are gathered in advance (maps, toy vehicles, toy Soldiers, methods to record actions and reactions, etc).  List all the friendly forces.  List all your assumptions so you can refer back to them for validity and necessity.  List known critical events and decision point.  Determine evaluation criteria, which means on what basis are we going to evaluate the COAs (survivability, cost, risk, etc)?  Select the wargaming method, which can vary on the COA.  Typically, a defense is wargamed in a box, whereas a movement is often done using the Avenue-in-depth technique.  Next,  the method to record and display results is selected, which is typically a dry erase board or large sheet of paper with each of the critical events listed across the top and friendly and enemy forces listed down the sides.  Finally war game the COA from start to finish.  Go friendly action, enemy reaction, friendly counteraction for each event (or enemy action, friendly action, enemy counter action if the enemy strikes first).  One member is dedicated to the enemy side, who fights to win for the enemy (could even represent the natural disaster).  And remember to record everything.

For the prepper:  This is pretty straightforward.  Take your Bug In COA and play it out from the time you determine the need to Bug In until you think it is safe to come out.  What are the threats; be they natural, manmade, or mutant, and how can they defeat you?  Discuss how you will defeat each threat based on your assets and forces that you have on hand.  When you determine a shortfall, write it down.  Do not say you will do something you have no capability of, such as “well, I will have landmines around the perimeter.”  Really?  Where are you going to get landmines?  When are you going to put them in, camouflage them, control their detonation, and recover them?  Be realistic.  After you have wargamed that COA, wargame the other from start to finish.  If your second COA is to Bug Out, play through getting from somewhere else (such as your place of work) to your house in order to load vehicles.  How long will out load take and who does what?  War game both your primary and alternate routes.  And don’t forget to war game what happens when you get to your Bug Out Location.  You are essentially Bugging In there, so war game that as well.  That might have a completely different set of threats and conditions.  When you are done wargaming, you should have a list of the strengths and weaknesses of both of your plans.  You have identified where there are risks.  Now the assumptions that you made earlier are either emphasized or discarded.  Additionally, you may have developed branches and sequels to your plans that you hadn’t thought of before (If X happens, I will do A, if Y happens, I will do B).  All of these should be written down as well.

Step 5:  Course of Action Comparison.  Now is the time that the various COAs are compared to determine which is the best and therefore which plan to go with.  The actual comparison of the COAs is critical.  We use any technique that facilitates reaching the best decision.  Start by evaluating each COA from different perspectives, using the evaluation criteria that was already established.  Now, compare the COAs to determine the one with the highest likelihood of success against the most likely enemy threat and the most dangerous enemy threat.  This is done through a simple matrix with COAs listed across the top and the evaluation criteria listed down the side.  The criteria can be weighted in order to give more strength to those criteria which is most important.  Then each COA is scored, usually 1, 2, or 3.  If certain criterion is given a weight of 3, then the results would be 3, 6 and 9 respectively, with lowest score being best.  After each COA is graded and weighted, they are totaled and the one with the lowest score wins.  You now have your COA.
For the prepper:  The process is the same.  The only real difference would be the criteria you evaluate the COAs against.  For example, the military might use such things as Fires, Intelligence, Air Defense, and Combat Service

Support.  The prepper would use criteria such as Survivability, Risk, Simplicity, Cost, etc.
Step 6:  Course of Action Approval.  Within the military, this is a formalized brief to the commander by the staff with detailing the results of the wargaming process and their recommended COA.  At the end of the briefing, the command decides on a COA and then issues final planning guidance.  Since you are the commander, it is ultimately your decision; therefore there is not much to cover in this step.

Step 7:  Orders Production.  Now that the COA has been approved, the staff gets to work finalizing the plan that will result in an order to subordinate units.  All the information gathered during wargaming is gathered, including branches and sequels to the plan, and incorporated into the plan as  either tasks to subordinate units  or coordinating instructions that apply to multiple units.  The plan also identifies risks and implements control measures to reduce those risks.  The commander reviews the final plan which is then issued via a variety of means.

For the prepper:  Now that you have your plan, and have seen where you are vulnerable, you can write everything down into one cohesive document.  This can include maps and directions, a list of division of responsibilities within the family or your group, load plans for vehicles and packing lists.  This is a good time to also list those items you identified you need to support your plan, but don’t currently have on hand.  This is your new shopping list.  This way you are purchasing what you will NEED to support your plan, not what you THINK you need and can help reduce waste.

Finally, after the plan is issued to everyone, and everyone understands the plan, comes the time to rehearse, rehearse, and rehearse again.  Time is the main limiting factor here. If you have a solid plan for TEOTWAWKI you can rehearse it with everyone involved in your plan at any time.  Try to do it under a variety of conditions such as night time, high traffic times, middle of winter, in the rain, etc.  After each rehearsal, conduct an After Actions Review to discuss what the plan was, what went right and what went wrong.  Only then can you identify faults in your plan that you didn’t realize while planning  in the comfort of your living room and further develop other contingencies to counter those problems.

The Military Decision Making Process was designed to handle any kind of operation, take all factors into consideration, and come up with the best plan in order to accomplish the mission.  Prepping for when TSHTF is no different and is the method I use to ensure the survival of my family.

Reference:
FM 5-0, Army Planning and Orders Production, 20 January, 2005, Defense Printing Office

Two Letters Re: Don’t Stockpile, Get Global — Conversations with a Rhodesian Expat and Being Financially Global

Jim,
It doesn’t have to be either or. It is foolish to not have resources stored. It also makes sense to be prepared to make a retreat to another country where you have friends and resources. My family’s plans and preparations include personal contacts and pre-positioned resources in two countries. I can show up unannounced in two other countries, and be assured of a warm welcome and assistance in integrating into the country. I have lesser contacts in a number of other countries. In the country where we live we have stockpiled over a years worth of food, and have the land, seeds, tools and expertise to feed our family indefinitely. We are not a wealthy family in terms of net worth as it is usually measured. I’m only worth about $100,000 USD. But I have no debts, own productive land, hold other land via long term lease agreement, have invested in several small businesses. But the crown jewel of my resources is the international network of contacts held together by friendship, common faith, family ties and economic interests. Louis L’Amour fans might think about Barnabas Sackett’s network of contacts and the blessing it was to his sons. – Andrew B. (Somewhere in the southern end of the Redoubt.)

Gents,
While I do understand what Peter was getting at, I think there were some serious elements missing in his theory.

For starters, if the US collapses, odds are excellent that most other nations will have either followed suit or soon will. Even China, touted as the world’s most powerful economy, is completely reliant on exports – exports to countries like the US, which will have collapsed, no? The global economy is too interconnected to assume that some regions would fall without other regions following suit. Even as far back as the 1920’s-1930’s, the world economy at large suffered in chain reaction, and that was back when many nations were still largely isolationist in nature! This leaves you with a question of where to go… even tiny nations that appear to be isolated are heavily reliant on imports to maintain any real standard of living (and in some cases, any living at all). Case in point would be the Bahamas… nice and isolated, but without a massive desalinization/groundwater extraction infrastructure (and imported fuel to feed the pumps), most folks there would be SOL for drinking water. Same story with most tiny island nations – without imports (that would dry up when SHTF), survival would be sketchy at best for the current populations residing on them.

Long story short, you’d still have to survive collapse, but now you have the added bonus of surviving it in a foreign land, and with no supplies.

Secondly, under such a scenario, the amount of time you would have to bug out to your chosen remote nation of choice and get set up there would be vanishingly small. In order to fly out under such circumstances, you would have to be already there, perfectly lucky, perfectly psychic, or own a transcontinental-range private jet. Why? Because I sincerely doubt that buying a plane ticket is going to be possible while everything is turning into chaos. You could do it by ship, but finding one and getting passage on it is going to be harder still.

Third, the gringo has a bit of an identity problem… most non-English-speaking nations, while nominally friendly to the typical US tourist (who brings money), would get pretty hostile on an interpersonal level once word got out that the US was no longer functioning. Nationalists of all stripes would rise up and make you out to be the scapegoat for all his nation’s ills. As most nations have strict weapons laws for foreigners (that would be you), you get to face the mobs unarmed. What friends you do have aren’t going to risk their wife/kids/parents to save your butt, and shame on you for thinking they will. I strongly suspect that even nations such as Mexico would suddenly become a dangerous place to be an American in if/when America ceased to be.

Next up? Medical issues. In most places today, drinking the local water is a guaranteed 3-day trip on the Toilet-Ride Of Pain. Post-collapse, it would be a guaranteed death sentence if you weren’t already used to drinking it. Oh, and now you get to contend with strange local diseases that you didn’t have time to get vaccinated against before you hurriedly left home. While not everyone will experience issues with it, I guarantee that unless you’ve gotten used to it and are already acclimated? It’s going to hurt, and coupled with the stress of bugging out of an entire country as it’s collapsing? It’ll likely kill you if you catch anything at all.

And then there is climate. Bugging out to Canada? Hope you can deal with the extreme winters. Australia? Cool, but most of it is hostile desert and scrub… the good parts are already occupied fully by the current population. New Zealand? Given their current immigration requirements and small size, I doubt they’d let you in.

Finally, there’s the money thing. A collapse of the world’s biggest economies would mean that all economies would suffer greatly. So, even if you did manage to convert those greenbacks to the local swag before the crash? The local money may well become worthless too – just as you’re trying to use it as a means to buy all the stuff you didn’t stockpile on.

Not even going to mention the language differences, lack of local knowledge on some rather vital subjects (edible plants, animals, etc), lack of local political knowledge (yes, it’s kind of important to have that), etc.

All that said, I get the theory, and if you planned carefully, and bugged-out well in advance, you would have a shot at riding out the collapse in relative ease. You would have to pick a country that isn’t going to go all hostile on you as an American, a country with enough local resources to largely support its current population minus civilization, and one that has some hope of functioning in some fashion in spite of the rest of the world going to hell.

It is entirely possible to find a safe haven, but in my opinion? It would require a ton of research, and quite frankly, you’d better already be living there. – T.J.M.

Economics and Investing:

C.A. in Oregon mentioned a recent news story that might be a preview for American farmers that have orchards near cities or suburbs: Desperation thefts of crops from farms in Spain.

Clive Maund: Heads A Deflationary Implosion – Tails A Hyperinflationary Depression…

Upside Down America: The lingering problems of negative equity – Over 10 million Americans are underwater with 1 million having loan-to-value ratios of 150 percent or higher

Are Bitcoins Becoming Europe’s New Safe Haven Currency?

Items from The Economatrix:

Weak Factories, Sentiment Show Shaky US Recovery

There’s A Positive Sign For Housing

V’s Response to Greek Election Facade-Just Watch and See–The Euro is C’est Fini

Forget The Election Results–Greece Is Doomed And So Is The Rest Of Europe

Odds ‘n Sods:

Composting 101

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SurvivalBlog reader Ed. M. recommended the training seminars by author Lt. Col. Dave Grossman, titled “Bullet Proof Mind for the Armed Citizen.” Ed M. notes: “I’m a 35-year veteran Park Ranger and this was without a doubt one of the top 10 training sessions I’ve ever attended. Colonel Grossman has given this training to our and international military and law enforcement personnel for years, this was the second time the training had been provided for civilian patriots. I strongly recommend that SurvivalBlog readers attend his great training if he comes to your area.”

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The editor of The Prepper Website mentioned this site: Biblical Self Defense.

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Reader Ken L. said that he plans to try an interesting potato bin growing method.

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Leigh spotted this: Things to Consider in a Natural Gas Pickup Truck

Note from JWR:

Today we present another two entries for Round 41 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 41 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Treasure Hunting, Prepper-Style, by PrepperGal in Colorado

Nearly two-thirds of all the furnishings and prep items in my home were used when I got them.  As the economy has continued to crumble, any stigma attached to shopping on the cheap has given way to pride at getting a good deal.  Forget designer shoes or imported coffee – I get absolutely giddy when I come home with a great “find”!

But can you rely on bargain shopping to get all the things you need to help your family be prepared for whatever comes your way?  Is there a way to really make “treasure hunting” both fun and successful?
Yes!  All it takes is some planning together with a positive attitude and a pre-determined budget.  Even if you aren’t pinching pennies, why waste your money when you can find great items at bargain prices and redirect those extra dollars to food or debt reduction?  And if you are on a budget (and most of us are), this organized approach lets you decide what’s important and where you should look for the best buys.
Do your homework

  • Get a small notebook that fits in your pocket, purse or glove compartment.  Never leave home without it!
  • Sit down with your family.  Identify your needs and prioritize them. For each item, determine:
    • Exactly what the item is.  If your husband needs a Left Handed Monkey Whatzitgrubber and you don’t have a clue what that is, have him show you a picture of one and explain what it’s for.  Guys, the same goes for you if you don’t know the difference between a tea strainer and a colander.
    • The condition you’ll accept.  Is there someone you know who could refurbish or repair–a broken or not-working item?
    • $$ you’re willing to spend.  Be sure to set aside funds that can be readily accessed if you find a great deal on one of your high priority items.
    • Specifics such as make, model, caliber, size, etc.  Remember, you can’t take it back if it doesn’t fit!
  • Put these items in your notebook on a Priority List.  These are items you’ll actively search for on a regular basis.
  • Make  lists of less critical items that you’ll keep your eyes open for whenever you find them.  Divide the lists into heading such as Equipment, Survival items, Clothing, Consumables, etc.  I keep a summary of categories at the front –my “list of lists”.
  • Next, if you have a group of like-minded friends that are planning and training together, have a serious discussion and identify the needs of the group.   You may want to start with a checklist such as the ones found online or in your favorite SHTF book, customized for your group, location and budget.  Determine what items and supplies you don’t have that are critical to your group, then prioritize and budget for them.  Agree who will house the item, the condition you’ll accept, and who will contribute how much.
  • Share your own priority list with your group and keep a list of their priorities in your notebook.  The more people looking, the better!
  • Be sure to ask and note such requirements as size, caliber, dimensions, colors, etc next to each item on everyone’s lists.

What can I expect to find?
Anything and everything!  You’ll shake your head at some of the objects being sold for pennies on the dollar or thrown away as trash.  Here’s a sample of some of my recent finds:

  • 6’ black wire bakers rack – $10
  • All-American pressure cooker, new (still in the box) – $15
  • 2 Coleman camping cots – $2 each
  • 15 PermaGard chem suits new in packages – $1 each
  • Excalibur dehydrator – $10
  • Craftsman toolbox with more than 120 Craftsman, Stanley and other tools – $20
  • 5 gal bucket chemical toilet (new) – $2
  • 3 oil lamps with extra globes – $3 each
  • Metal ammo cans – $4
  • Grocery sack full of new first aid supplies (at the end of an estate sale) – FREE
  • Garden tools (2 rakes, 2 shovels, a hoe) – $3 each
  • 10 person, 3 room Coleman tent in very good condition, along with two sleeping bags and a Coleman lantern – $75

Where to look
Now that you know what you’re looking for, the question is where to find it.  Your options will vary depending on where you’re at and how much time you can devote to “the hunt”. Be sure to check:

  • CraigsList
    • Check under Yard Sales, Farm & Garden, etc, and use key words to search the general “For Sale” category for your priority items at least once a week.  Remember, it’s a first come/first serve situation.
    • Beware of scammers.  Try to take someone with you when you go to purchase an item.
  • Other web sites such as www.GovLiquidation.com, www.GovDeals.com, www.GSAAuctions.gov  or www.drms.dla.mil
    • Some of these require that you buy a case full of something.  This is where coordinating with a group of friends is useful.  You may not need 20 gas masks, but your group may need that many for all their family members.
    • All states and many municipalities also have surplus sales or auctions.  The same is true for hospitals, colleges, school districts and other large organizations.  Be sure to check their web sites for upcoming sales.
  • Yard Sales (especially estate sales)
    • Yard sales are mainly held between April and September, although they can be year round in warm weather areas.  Watch online and along the streets for signs that the “season” has begun.
    • Look for sales in locations best suited to your items.  Identify sales in rural vs urban areas, look for nice homes in neighborhoods that have yards or gardens.  Make a map/list of sales in geographic and priority order.
    • Be there first, with plenty of cash in hand.  Always be friendly – greet the seller with a smile!  They’re much more likely to give you a good deal if you’re not gruff and rude.
    • Be considerate.  If the ad says “No early birds”, respect the hours posted.  Don’t block the street or driveway.  Keep your children under control or leave them at home.
    • Negotiate!  This can be the best part of the whole hunt.  Prices are rarely firm, but don’t insult them, either.  If they’re asking $20 for the dehydrator, it’s fine to offer $10, but don’t offer $2.  Don’t look too eager – point out the worn spot, the torn cover, or the missing end piece.  But most importantly, know when to walk away if it’s not a good deal of if it’s not a need.  Keep the larger purpose in mind.
    • Estates sales are the best source for many items such as older tools and gear.  Things that a family wouldn’t get rid of just because of a move are up for grabs when grandpa moves into the nursing home.
    • Keep your eyes open when you’re going from sale to sale – there’s usually more Yard Sale signs posted along the way.
  • Thrift Stores
    • Get to know your local thrift stores – what their strengths are, any special sales days, and any membership cards (yes, just like the groceries!).  Get on their mailing list if they have one and find out about any early bird specials.
    • Once you’re a “regular”, chat with the manager or the clerks and let them know about any specific items you’re watching for.  They’re often very willing to give you a call if something comes into the store that’s on your list.
  • Auctions
    • I recommend taking someone with you that has experience with auctions or you’ll find yourself buying something when you just tried to scratch your nose!  All auctions are different, but most are fast paced, fast talking and lots of fun.
    • Most auctions have a time prior to the start of the sale for inspection of the items.  Take advantage of this time to look closely at an item’s condition.  Ask questions.  Listen to those around you and learn, learn, learn!
  • Local or community newspapers
    • Most local papers have a yard sale or items for sale/barter section.
    • Watch for local auction notices.
    • Don’t be afraid to approach the sellers prior to the official sale date to see if they’d like to sell specific items.  In small communities, people are often more flexible with neighbors than with strangers.
  • For Sale sections on town, church or company web sites, bulletin boards or newsletters
    • Watch for church rummage sales, fund raising sales and items being sold off by your town or community center.
  • Word of mouth (Tell your friends what you’re looking for!)
    • Some of my best leads on items and services have come from friends and neighbors when I’ve mentioned what I’m looking for.
    • Shop local merchants whenever possible.  Buying from farmers or local tradesmen both supports the local economy and cuts out the middle-man profit.  Plus, they’re more likely to take pride in selling a quality product or service.    And when you purchase from them, you can ask for referrals on other items.

And don’t forget that there are some places that even advertise free things or items for barter!  Be sure to check FreeCycle, the “Free” section on CraigsList, and other local sources.  Also, if you show up near the end of a yard sale, people will often be willing to give items away to keep from having to haul them away or put them back in their garages.
Be sure you inspect all items carefully.  Be sure they work (or that their condition is acceptable).  Remember – all sales at yard sales, thrift stores, auctions and the like are final.  No returns accepted!
If you find an item that’s on a friend’s or your group’s priority list, take a photo and quickly send it to whoever else is part of the decision making process.  Call them immediately while standing next to the item (even better, lean on it!)
Tools of the trade
So now you have the what and the where.  But before you jump in the car and head out on your adventures, be sure you have everything you need.

  • Don’t forget to bring your notebook along with a pen or pencil to take notes.
  • Carry your purse or wallet in a way that your hands are free without laying anything down.  Keep most of your cash in the car, carrying only part of it on you at any one time.
  • The bigger the better – a pickup truck is a great way to carry just about anything home.  However, my small SUV works just fine for all but the big stuff.  In that case, have a pick-up driving friend on speed-dial!
  • In your car, have the following:
    • A measuring tape
    • Bungee cords
    • A bucket, bag, newspapers or other items to restrain and protect small or breakable objects

Ready, Set, Save!
So now you have a plan.  You know what you’re looking for, where to find it and how to get it home.  All that’s left is to put on your comfortable shoes, strap on your fanny pack, grab your notebook and your list of destinations, and head out!  Make it a family affair or take a friend and have lunch afterwards.  Whether with a group or by yourself, if you’re like me (I consider shopping both a sport and entertainment) you’ll look forward to the adventure.  Just tell your family that you’re “working hard” to help the family prep.  Enjoy!

Cause or Consequence: Yet Another Planning Tool, by E.B.

I recently saw a prepper forum which posted the question “What is your biggest fear?” Answers listed varied from EMP to riots to complete financial collapse to nuclear strikes in your backyard. I thought a long time about this fear-based. In my mind, I prepare so I do not fear; or really, so that I fear less.

So what are we really afraid of? Are we afraid of the causes of a crisis, or the consequences? Causes and crises are scary, and there are many: wars, recession, wildfires, tornados, hurricanes, blizzards, ad infinitum. Take your pick. But the consequences are almost universally the same; namely a reduction in our standard of living and/or imminent danger to our lives and property. To what degree that standard of living may be reduced and our lives endangered is the only real unknown a prepper needs to fear. If you look at you needs of life (check out Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs) and ask yourself how you will provide for those needs come what may, you can expose weak spots in your preparations and, perhaps more importantly, organize and prioritize your ongoing and future preparations.

I believe you should put all of your prepping categories through the gauntlet on consequence-based thinking. Needs such as food, shelter, water, security, entertainment, income, investment should all be thought-out thoroughly and analytically. Prepping should not be an emotional endeavour. Break down all your needs, all the subcategories, even all your individual preps or plans into their most basic components, and run them all through the mill of comprehensive and intentionally thought-out ‘what ifs’, and see how they stand up. Make sure you write them down. Keep your records organized. I strongly encourage all of you who are new to the preparedness world to organize your needs in a similar way, either as below or in some other manner, and then write it down. Your written work serves not only as a future guide of prepping priorities, but can serve as a plan to deal with the full consequences of any foreseen crisis. Not only will these records help your current preps, but if and when things go sideways it will be your blueprint for fulfilling those needs when the stress makes your head spin. Even people who have been preparing for years may find it useful to revisit the basics.

Some Potential Major Consequences of Crises

1. Reduced Purchasing Power
I personally think we are experiencing this consequence of crisis right now, and I am sure most of you would agree. Every grocery bill seems to cost more and buy less. But this is more than just accounting for inflation. It includes reductions in incomes, due to lost jobs, layoffs, loss of benefits and other causes. It could simply be becoming injured on or off the job, and having to take sick leave, or losing money in your retirement mutual fund of choice (I earnestly hope you do not have mutual funds. These days you might do better at the roulette table at the local casino. At least their odds are 49-51 if you bet on red or black!) Combat your reduced purchasing power, and prepare for further erosion in purchasing power by:
• Working More! Dave Ramsey correctly states that you biggest money maker is your job. If you can get a different one, do it. I used to refuse to apply for jobs that I thought were “beneath me”, until I met a recent immigrant who taught me that the important job – the one I can be proud of – is any job that provides for my family. If you can’t find another job, keep trying and slug on. It’s increasingly common to be in that situation and there is no shame in it, as long as you keep trying. There is only shame in giving up.
• Budget. Plan a budget. It’s hard, and I can’t count how many budgets I have made and failed to adhere to, but each time I try it makes me a little more focused on my true priorities, which don’t include a new flat screen anymore.
• Buy in bulk, on sale, and coupon. Other articles have been written about this. Search them out in the SurvivalBlog archives. If you know you will need one small tube of toothpaste per month, don’t be afraid to buy 12 large ones when they next go on sale. People will look at you funny right now, but they’ll catch on soon. Stock up on non-perishables that you use daily and when the price is right. These are better than money in the bank. You cannot brush your teeth with money. “Wealth” as a concept means the things you need, or the ability to get the things you need. When money buys less, toothpaste (or any other thing you need, and have) is “wealth”.
• Share. There is no time like the present to start making connections with people around you. If someone needs help now, help them! You might need help later. And it’s not just money and stuff I am talking about; share your time, your labour and your expertise. Think of the old barn raisings in our grandparent’s days. Many together can do what one alone cannot. Start now, and get to know the people around you.
This first category is basically a consequence of hard economic times. Whether it comes about from a lost job, inflation, low supply or high demand, the results are similar: you cannot afford as much as you used to be able to. Preppers often prepare for these consequences unintentionally. If you are worried about mass inflation, then you probably have your bases covered for the regular kind. We have not yet seen mass inflation in our lifetimes (at least in North America), yet many of us have had our purchasing power suddenly and drastically reduced.

2. Scarcity
Scarcity means the things you need to live are no longer available. How will you meet your needs when there is no food on the grocery store shelves, no power, no gas at the gas station, no medications at the pharmacy, no plumbing, no mass transit, etc, etc, etc. Peak oil, just-in-time delivery, shortages – there are many crises that could result in scarcity. Offset the hardships of scarcity with the following:
• A Larder. Did you notice that newer houses aren’t built with pantries anymore? I remember the cold room at my grandma’s house – in the basement stocked to the roof with mason jars, with a framed dirt bin along one wall for the potatoes and carrots. Why did people do this? To live. In the great depression, for many people, if they couldn’t make or grow something themselves, they didn’t have it. Think like your grandparents. They lived through hard times. For many of them, going to the grocery store once a month was a convenience. If your grandparents had it easy, think like my grandparents and fill you larder. If you buy the things you need in bulk, to hedge against your loss in purchasing power, you likely have a start on some sort of storage or larder.
• Do It Yourself. Learn to do things for yourself, and reduce your dependence on buying stuff. “We have no knowledge, so we have stuff, but stuff without knowledge is never enough.” (Greg Brown). Learn to start a fire, build an improved woodstove (check out practicalaction.org), cook your own meals, bake bread, build an outhouse, poop in a hole in the woods, knit socks, darn socks, anything. And then try to meet other people who think the same way. Knitting clubs, pottery lessons, artisan guilds, reloaders; there are many activities people do for pleasure that used to be essential to life, and may be again.
• Barter. Again, share. A community is stronger than an individual and has access to greater resources. Cut your neighbour’s lawn with your old-timey push mower in exchange for using her pressure canner. Ask around of you need something; seek and you will find it.

3. Hunker Down
“Bug In” is the term most commonly used for this consequence, preferably at your retreat or retreat-in-place. This is what happens when there is a pandemic, martial law, curfews, tornadoes, blizzards, etc. Bugging in may require:
• The need for short term self sufficiency in your home, even with disruptions of utilities (Unavailability) such as power and plumbing. Includes plans for meeting the basic needs or human life (food, water, warmth, toilets). You should have this covered if you have a larder, with the addition of some sort of hygiene/pooping plan.
• Entertainment. Don’t overlook this one! Your sanity depends on it.
• The need for defence of your home (I.e. strong doors, storms shutters, and other means…)
• Communication. A radio or security cameras would be useful in knowing when that tornado warning ends, or the bad guys are gone. How are you going to know when it is safe to come out of the basement?

4. Evacuation!
Everyone should consider the need to beat feet and get out of dodge. It’s not just meant for a coming world collapse or when bad guys knocking down your front door – even the most prepared family retreat needs to have an evacuation plan for natural disasters such as wildfires or floods. If you are planning on ‘bugging in’ for every conceivable crisis, you are committing to going down with your ship. A noble principle, I suppose, but I would rather build another ship. How will you meet your basic needs of life in an evacuation? Some ideas:
• Documentation. Everything you need to access your resources, like bank account records, will, identification, medical prescriptions, etc, and important phone numbers for your family and friends who you will likely be visiting very, very soon. Get it in paper and backed up electronically (perhaps on an encrypted USB).
• Mini-Larder. A bug-out bag or get out of dodge kit is really just a portable mini-larder, with the necessities for life in the short term or the ability to provide for them. Pack it up, customize it, put it in the trunk of your car, carry it on your back or whatever. The most minimal bug out bag I would consider is carrying a small metal can, a knife, and a lighter. Don’t leave home without it.
• A Plan. So you left your house: now what? Part of your security planning in an evacuation is the plan to reach safety. Routes, vehicles, extra gas might all be required, but it might just mean moving up the hill to get out of the tsunami evacuation zone like in Hawaii after the Fukushima earthquake. How will you get your kids out of your 2nd storey bedroom when the main floor of your home is on fire?
The potential for evacuation is real, for everyone, everywhere. A house fire would have the same consequence, initially, as any other crisis – you would have to leave fast. I think the potential for evacuation is something everyone should be addressing, and is a good way to introduce people to the ideas surrounding emergency preparedness.

5. End of the World as We Know It
Worst-case scenarios like are hard to predict. Things could always be worse. In essence they are unpredictable. As a TEOTWAWKI event, I imagine ALL of the above consequences happening at once, or for a long, long time. It would be death, chaos and mass destruction. I can’t give you any instructions on this consequence of crises, except to do your best, do right, and make your peace with God. ‘Nuff said.

6. Status Quo
This is the one that no prepper likes to talk about. But it needs to be talked about. There is the possibility, however distant we might think it, that things will remain unchanged for long time. That doesn’t rule out things like job loss, but when we put all our resources into preps at the expense of our financial well-being and happiness, we have left the path of wisdom. Live within your means. Do not max out your credit cards to buy preps for an event that could be years away. They will repossess your stuff, and you will be worse off than when you started. No second mortgages to buy the armoured vehicle you think you need!
• Live within your means.
• Make rational decisions, not emotional or fear-based decisions.
• Balance the future with the present. You never know, that asteroid that causes the end of the world could fall directly on your head. Spending your life worrying about it would have been a silly thing to do, wouldn’t it? Or you could have a heart attack tomorrow. So prepare, make it your new useful insurance policy, but don’t let it consume you and your happiness. Spend time with the people you care about doing the things you love to do.

This list is by no means exhaustive. It’s just a method a taking the fear out of any given disaster scenario and replacing it with a plan. It has helped me, but you mileage may vary. At the very least, I encourage everyone to revisit their preps, to re-evaluate and reassess, and look for areas that nay have been previously glossed over. Think of the aspects of your basic needs and how you provide for them in the event of different consequences that life may send at you. Do it slowly, and write it down. A wise friend of mine told me once, that in our lives, we are either heading out of a crisis, or into one. He meant it on a more personal level, dealing with loss of a family member, but it applies everywhere. If you plan well, if you plan rationally and intentionally, then all your preps should be either useful or enjoyable to your life now. So what if someone makes fun of you for having a year’s supply of toothpaste? You’re going to use it one way or another, and you got it on sale.