Keep Your Bicycle Running in Tough Times, by S.H.

A lot of times you’ll hear folks say that doing some activity is like riding a bicycle; once you know how to do it, you’ll always remember. Well, it’s true that no matter how long it’s been since you’ve ridden, you can get back on your bicycle, but only if you remember you have one! One thing I’ve noticed in a lot of posts regarding times post-after the Big Schumer hits the fan is the gap that bicycles could fill for transport needs.

Notably, bicycles were employed by a few characters in the book Patriots, so kudos to Mr. Rawles. They’re conspicuously absent from much of the other fiction out there. Horses are of course great if you have the means and knowledge, but they need to feed and have some care.

I’ve personally always enjoyed my time on a bicycle. From the day I got off training wheels, it’s been a pass-time for me personally. I raced a few times, and whether for fitness or with the children, I love being on a bike.

Hopefully, I can impart some useful bicycle knowledge that you can use.

The fastest known human, Mr. Usain Bolt, has been clocked during part of his sprints at up to 28 miles per hour. Now for most people, it’s going to be less than that, and the fastest sustained time runs in the 23 mile per hour range. So it’s safe to assume that most of us are sub-twenty-mile-per-hour runners. A bicycle doesn’t get you a lightning fast start (unless you’re a track speedster), but once you’re going it sure would help.

Imagine you needed to clear away from a pedestrian goblin or goblins in your travels and you got clear of the initial contact by bicycle. It’s reasonable to assume that with a modest 15 mile per hour bicycle travel speed, after half an hour’s ride against an eight minute mile goblin, you’d put 3.5 miles between you and them.

Now I know a lot of folks have SEAL team six backing them up against said goblins in their mind’s eye view of post-Schumer life, and that’s exciting, but I unfortunately don’t. So I’d engage violently in some circumstances and train to prevail. That couple miles is a good starting investment toward not seeing that goblin again. Travel by bicycle can also be fairly quiet.

I travel a fair amount for business, commonly 2000 miles or so. Having thought it through, if there’s no mechanized travel, like planes, trains, motorcycles, and automobiles, a bicycle would make a good option for me, and it would be on my day one SHTF “shopping list” near the top, along with some helpful gear. Under favorable conditions, I can ride 100 miles in a day, but with variable conditions and security concerns it could be 50-60 miles. While I’ve done a 20+ mile hike in a day, the same challenges that could be present that might make 15 miles a good day fortunate. You likely already know the concerns: hunger, water, security, safe travel routes, weather, and so forth. Consider this; you could get home in far less time.

It is a fair consideration as well that cycling moves you further with less effort, so when calories may be limited it makes sense to conserve energy where possible.

So what are some considerations for preparing for a long bicycle ride? Others may have contrary recommendations, but here are some of mine.

Think about what type of bicycle is most suited to the type of riding you’ll be doing. A road cycle is fast if you thought you’d be on great road surfaces but is less than ideal overall. I find that a mountain bike will typically do most jobs well. You don’t have to buy a top of the line mountain bike to do the job. I like mid-grade name brand mountain bikes for a “utility bike”. To me, the utility bike is the scout rifle of transportation preparedness. I have a couple of them, more as a hobby of repairing bikes, and I might even be convinced to barter one someday.

I live near a college town and have been able to pick up a couple of good utility bikes. With a professional grade tune-up (I used to work part time in a bicycle shop during college so I do it myself, but if you are not a do it yourselfer, it’s a good starting point), many used mid-grade bikes should give you a lot of mileage with little problem. If you buy the least expensive big box special, you’re likely to get less reliable components on your bicycle, assembled by someone who doesn’t care.

As far as tires, if knobbier tires are available, these may be helpful in winter months or muddy travel. I like a mid-sized “cross country” mountain tire. Bigger tires do translate to more effort and reduced efficiency.

If you have any choice, try to find a bicycle that fits you. Again, if you go to your local bike shop, they’ll fit a bike for you typically at no cost. It’s appropriate to have some clearance between your crotch and the crossbar (and by the way, unless SEAL team six is covering your six until their helo extracts you, it doesn’t much

matter if it’s a ladies bicycle in practical terms), that’s called stand over height. The next adjustment you should look at is the seat. The seat should be adjusted, in my experience, so that when your leg extends to the bottom of the pedal stroke, it is not quite completely straight. A longer pedal stroke will be rough on the knees, and a shorter one doesn’t capitalize on leg strength.

Suspension may be a point that’s arguable. From my opinion, a front suspension cross country mountain bike with a “hard tail” (sans suspension) will get you there with economy, lighter weight, and less wearable parts.

What about helmets? Can you live without one? If necessitated, yes, but having witnessed the outcome of people suffering brain injuries, I have to advocate in favor of helmet use in terms of your best chance of remaining fit for survival. If you do have SEAL team six with you, they may lend you one of theirs with the high speed NVG apparatus.

There are a few ways that you can fasten additional “luggage” to your bicycle for transport. Trailers like you’d use to carry toddlers are one way, but without going into great detail, it’s possible to fashion a cradle to support a medium-sized backpack (in the way that baskets can be fastened) from the handlebars. Also, it shouldn’t be too challenging to create a rack above the back of the rear axle to stow something akin to saddle bags on, if you do not already have one.

To keep your bicycle rolling, you’ll want to ensure that the chain retains some semblance of lubrication. If it gets rusty, that’s inviting a break, which could be a fatal problem for your bicycle. Ditto for other moving parts. Also, a well-lubricated bike is a quiet bike. Check the recommendations for your bike, but consider that some moving parts with bearings may fair better with grease. This includes the axles, bottom bracket (where crank arms connect to the frame), and the pedal spindles. If you’re desperate, consider using motor oil. In some situations, you may be able to harvest this, if there’s a disabled vehicle.

As far as spare parts and tools, there are a few things that are helpful to have extra of. First is inner tubes. The valve on the inner tube is worthy of some consideration. If you’re into trail biking, you may find that it’s helpful to use Presta valves, in case you need to borrow someone else’s pump. With some newer rims, they’re exclusive to Presta. If you go with presta, it wouldn’t hurt to have more than one pump and an adapter to the ubiquitous Schraeder valve.

In terms of a SHTF situation, I highly recommend you have some inner tubes with a Schraeder valve handy. The Schraeder is the valve that you see on vehicle tires. So it’s reasonable to assume it will be easier to find a Schraeder compatible pump, when the Schumer has hit.

It’s worth keeping a spare chain compatible with your rig available and knowing how to repair/replace a chain. Youtube is a good resource for this fairly easy task. Along with this, a chain cutter repair kit and chain tool are good to have. One “Hillbilly repair” I made that worked adequately was on a trip a ways from a bicycle shop. I found an appropriately-sized nail and aviator snips and crafted my own chain pin. This experiment survived an additional two days of hard riding before getting back to “civilization”.

Flat tires are an issue you should not fear but should be prepared for. Like most things, prevention is a good bet. When I moved to Colorado as a young lad, I had several frustrating experiences with the omnipresent fruit of the tribulus terrestris, or the “Goathead thorn”. It seemed there was nowhere I could go on a bike ride without flatting out. Then a friend recommended tire protector liners, and riding became fun again. These liners go in between the tube and the tire and do a great job protecting from flat tires. Also, maintaining good tire pressure will prevent “pinch flats”.

Tire patch kits are fairly inexpensive, so they’re worth having several spares. Changing a flat is not that difficult. Having an extra tube gets you back on the road/trail more quickly, but unless catastrophically damaged or dry rotted, tubes should be patched and reused whenever possible. Tire levers are a good product to have on hand, polymer ones will minimize the risk of bending a rim or damaging a tire/tube, but if you have to a screw driver will work.

Quick steps to change a tube when your bike tire runs flat:

  1. Remove the wheel, ensuring that brakes allow clearance.
  2. Check for what caused the flat. If there’s a thorn, nail, or glass, it needs to be gone before you fix the situation.
  3. Using your tire levers or other prying device (bonus points when you teach yourself to break the bead with just your fingers), “open” the tire. I usually just open one side for a quick change.
  4. Gently pull the tube out a bit at a time.
  5. Slowly run your finger around the inside of the tire, checking for debris. (Note: Do this slowly, so you don’t wind up with glass or any debris cutting you.)
  6. With the tube fully removed, add a bit of air. I do the soapy water leak test to see where bubbles come out. By “soapy water,” I mean “saliva works well”.
  7. Dry and patch the area, if possible. (Note: This is straightforward. If you can’t figure out the patch kit instructions, you’ll likely not need much survival skillset building; just enjoy life now.)
  8. Pump just enough air into the tube for it to take shape. Insert it into the tire as you removed it.
  9. Using tire levers (or your thumbs), work the “bead” of the tire back inside the rim, beginning at the same spot and working your way around.
  10. Once you’ve restored the bead, pump the tire to appropriate pressure and ride on.

This wouldn’t be a good place to brag about the age of some of the tubes I’ve used and number of patches, because my belief in Murphy’s law runs strong. However, let’s just say there’s a lot of use in a quality tube.

Along with these tips, it will benefit you to learn more about brakes, gears/derailleurs, and other minor maintenance.

I hope this gives you some ideas about how to keep your bicycle rolling in good times and bad, and the Lord blesses you and keeps you safe in your travels.

Letter Re: Sheath for Rawles Voyager XL

JWR,

Hey, I sent you an email some time back about a sheath for the new knife of yours that my wife bought for me and you recommended “Wicekleather”, a company from Poland. I just wanted you to know, I ordered the sheath and it came today. It is absolutely BEAUTIFUL workmanship, and the knife fits into it PERFECTLY. I was thrilled with the sheath and for anyone who bought the knife, I can highly recommend Wiceleather. Thanks for the recommendation! – W.R.

Economics and Investing:

Living A Lie How much debt?! – Sent in by B.B.

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Why A Major Deflationary Financial Crisis Is Imminent

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Items from Professor Preponomics:

U.S. News

Why Gold-Backed Money Doesn’t Bring Booms and Busts (Mises Institute)

Zombies Appear in U.S. Oilfields as Crude Plumbs New Lows (Reuters) Article Quote: “The slump has created dozens of oil and gas “zombies,” a term lawyers and restructuring advisers use to describe companies that have just enough money to pay interest on mountains of debt but not enough to drill enough new wells to replace older ones that are drying out.”

Senator Ted Cruz Cosponsors Rand Paul’s Audit the Fed Bill (Breitbart)

International News

Putin Muffles His Anti-Western Rhetoric as Russia’s Economy Shrinks (The Economist) Thought: Never underestimate the power of economic forces at work within politics, but understand as well that these forces are fluid (not static) and Putin’s foundational views and operating philosophy of the United States (and other western nations) have not changed. He may be playing on this country’s utter lack of long term memory. He may be playing on the rising tide of American disgust for domestic politics and politicians, even anger. Russian bombers will be buzzing the U.S. coastline again, soon enough.

Personal Economics and Household Finance

Beware of ID Theft During Medical Emergencies: Couple Accused of Using Stolen Patient Information for Pricey Purchases (Fox 5 New York) Article Quote: “The conduct charged in this case is morally reprehensible. When a person is admitted to a hospital, the last thing that patient or their family members should be concerned about is whether their identity will be stolen.”

Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader D.B sent in this link about New Legislation Would Force Twitter and Facebook to Report “Terrorist Activity”. So who decides what terrorist activity is? Just one more reason to avoid social web media

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Krayton Kerns on Gun Control – Picasso’s Little Sister

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No passports for US citizens who haven’t paid taxes or don’t have a Social Security number

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I am incredibly unsettled by reports of large amounts of cell phone purchases and stolen LP tanks by Muslims. On one hand, the purchase of cell phones shouldn’t be a crime by itself, but there is also the disturbing trend of how phones like these are being used. (Warning: The video depicts graphic violence and I am unable to ascertain if it is real or not.) And we want more of these people here?!

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From the Desk of Mike Williamson, SurvivalBlog Editor At Large: History repeats itself – Millennials Want To Send Troops To Fight ISIS, But Don’t Want To Serve

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“Then said the king, The one saith, This is my son that liveth, and thy son is the dead: and the other saith, Nay; but thy son is the dead, and my son is the living. And the king said, Bring me a sword. And they brought a sword before the king. And the king said, Divide the living child in two, and give half to the one, and half to the other. Then spake the woman whose the living child was unto the king, for her bowels yearned upon her son, and she said, O my lord, give her the living child, and in no wise slay it. But the other said, Let it be neither mine nor thine, but divide it. Then the king answered and said, Give her the living child, and in no wise slay it: she is the mother thereof. And all Israel heard of the judgment which the king had judged; and they feared the king: for they saw that the wisdom of God was in him, to do judgment.” 1 Kings 3:23-28 (KJV)

Notes for Friday – December 11, 2015

Today, we present another entry for Round 62 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul pmags 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
  6. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  7. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
  8. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  9. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  4. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  5. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  6. Twenty-five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  7. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  8. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  9. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A $245 gift certificate from custom knifemaker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
  3. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  8. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  9. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 61 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

To Prepare or Not to Prepare, by M.S.

As a father and a husband of four children, I ask any one of you out there, man or woman, how we can flip back and forth between the local news channels or news apps and not consider the need to prepare?

Whether you’re reading about the “Radical Islamists” that so many of our politicians refuse to label as such or the tornadoes touching down in the Midwest in November, or perhaps you remember Hurricane Katrina and all the helpless people that quite honestly would probably have done almost anything for a few gallons of water or food. How can we see all this and not prepare?

I talk to people– family, friends, and neighbors– and I constantly get that look of “Is this guy for real? Is he crazy?”Well I will tell you as nicely as I can, it’s the ones whon don’t prepare that are crazy! I believe they do so not understanding what prepping is about. It does not have to be a zombie apocalypse, nuclear war, EMP strike, pandemic, or any other “crazy” scenario. Although, I personally believe these are becoming more and more plausible. What about Katrina? What about the chemical spill in West Virginia a few years back? I was recently there, and I remember it all on the news. Do you know that people were waiting in line for six hours at a time just for three gallons of water? Or that the National guard was trucking water in for quite some time? A local told me the National Guard hauled water in for over three months while they were cleaning the system! I don’t remember seeing all those “hairy” details on the news either! Why did they not prepare?

What if the guard was not available? What if there were multiple attacks at one time on this great nation (just like Paris this past weekend) and the guard simply could not be in every place at once? I remember six or maybe seven years ago now, when we had an ice storm that shut power down for a majority of the state of Kansas. I personally went nine days without power. Nine days! Besides a few canned goods and a gallon of water in our fridge, we had nothing. My wife, our four children, and myself were totally reliant on others throughout this “natural” disaster. Do you know what it’s like to rely on others, or for your family to look at you and to have that feeling deep down in your gut that you’re helpless, that you can’t take care of the ones you swore to protect ’til your last breath? Why did I not prepare?

I would also like to point out during this power outage, which lasted nine days, that the power restored to the town nearby within 24 hours was intermittent. I remember having to go to the local gas station only when the lights were on, because the pumps run on electricity. Water was being pumped in from another source beside our local water treatment center, and guess what? Talk was going around of it being shut down if power did not come on permanently and remain that way because of the heavy demand we were putting on the rural water district. What would I have done then? The shelves at the store were well below normal stock levels. What trucks could make it in to deliver food and water were not enough, and it took them weeks to catch back up. After nine days and thousands of lineman from other states, all was eventually restored, but what if the other workers couldn’t come. How long would we have gone without the essentials then? What if all trucks were grounded? What would we do to protect the ones we love and care for? Why, as people, do we not prepare?

I cannot tell you how to prepare or why to prepare. This is something you must come to realize for yourself and most importantly those you love. I don’t mean to sound cruel or selfish, but let’s be honest; we as human beings will do anything to protect the ones we love. From the very first time I saw my first child born, I knew I would do anything to protect them from experiencing a single ounce of pain or hurt. A picture of a momma bear protecting her cubs comes to mind! I guarantee you “momma bear” is prepared!

I can also guarantee you that now I am prepared. While I may not be prepared for more than a few months, I am way better off then I was years ago. I now have enough food for at least three months. Some I’ve stored, and some I’ve bought ready-to-store. I have water for at least a few weeks. The rain barrels for my garden also double as water storage for my family. I have a bug out bag. (If you don’t know what that is, it’s basically an emergency pack that you have ready to grab in case of an emergency evacuation.) I keep way more than water and food in mine, but each person must decide what’s needed for theirs. “Crazy”, you say? What about the recent train derailment and the evacuation of a whole town that was in the news? I can be out of my house in under three minutes with my whole family if/when an emergency evacuation order is given. Can you? You really should prepare!

I also have weapons and ammunition stored. My wife and my children are all familiar with them and know they are to be handled with care and how to properly care for them. I have several different calibers and enough ammunition to last for several months as well. It’s not because I’m scared or worried about some government takeover but because I know that the masses who are not prepared will do what they need to in order to survive, because they did not prepare!

I know how to grow and store food as well. I’ve always been a gardener and always will be, if not to prepare at least to offset those high grocery prices that for some reason have not gone down even though gas is now $1.95 a gallon. I’ve read articles on food storage, off grid living, plant identification, wilderness survival, and so much more. You name it, and I can probably tell you something about it. All this prepping took time. I collected it one can of food at a time, one item a week, until I had enough to fill up my bug out bag. I also got one rain barrel at a time. The point I’m trying to get across is that you can do this for pennies on the dollar every week, if you just dedicate yourself. To prepare you must start somewhere.

Even if you don’t physically prepare with food, water, or weapons, the very least you can do is prepare yourself with knowledge. Just reading one or two articles and learning basics can surely save your life. For instance, what if your power is out and you live nowhere close to a supply of water and you have nothing stored? Do you know where you would go to get water? Do you know that you can tap your water heater tank for at least 50 gallons? What about the tanks on your toilets? Do you know that you need at the very minimum a gallon per person per day? You do the math and see how long that would last your family. Keep in mind that amount is for drinking and cooking only; a gallon is nowhere near enough for your hygiene and cleaning purposes. Did you know that you can use Crisco for a homemade candle, or that turpentine will waterproof matches? Have you talked to your family about whether you should stay put or bug out in an emergency? Trust me, there are all kinds of different situations that will make me decide one way versus the other. Fight or flight, this is very important. Do your kids know what to do if they get stuck at school while you are at work? Do you have a designated place to meet if you’re separated or disaster strikes when you are apart? Did you know that some of those yellow flowers along the roadways have an edible root? Jerusalem artichokes, I believe is what they call them. Some of this may mean nothing to any of you, and to be honest I may never use any of it. You may think I’m the biggest fool in the world. My wife will say things in public about my prepping, but in private it’s probably the thing I do that she says makes her feel most safe. All it takes is for one thing to happen and my gear and knowledge will be priceless. It’s all because I’m prepared!

Look at the ones you love and ask yourself, “to prepare or not to prepare?” Any sane person knows the answer to that one!

Two Letters Re: The 9mm Parabellum vs the .40 Smith and Wesson vs the .45 ACP, by B.F.

Good Morning Hugh,

Read with interest the article posted today about handgun calibers. I agree, the topic is beaten to death, and I agree with the author’s conclusion 110%: You should practice, practice, practice and use what works best for you! I found the following website/report to be extremely useful in my own research, and it provided me with the information I needed to choose a carry-ammunition for my family (Federal 124 gr HST 9mm). YMMV, however, the data was presented extremely well and un-biased. Please pass this link along to your readers for them to use as well. I have no interest in the LuckyGunner website; I, just found the report extremely useful for this challenging topic.

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HJL,

The debate over the effectiveness of cartridges designed to be shot by mortal men in concealable pistols was well addressed here. The subject of knockdown power is mostly misunderstood. You only need high school physics to understand that for every reaction there is an equal and opposite reaction. With that said, if the bullet has the power to “knock down” your assailant, then it would certainly knock you down too. Projectiles need enough velocity to penetrate deep enough to destroy vital tissue and stop the fight. Shooting well is the only way to win a gunfight. I’m an “A” class USPSA competitor, which means I fall into the top 10%, which means I shoot 15,000 to 20,000 rounds a year. Shooting the 30 pound pepper poppers with a major caliber (40 or 45) and watching them slowly keel over just solidifies that a 200-pound assailant isn’t going anywhere. A pistol is only meant for 24/7 personal protection because it’s easy to carry always. A pistol is your last desperate attempt to save yourself. A rifle is what you take to a fight. Pray for peace. Prepare for war. God bless. – Mark

Economics and Investing:

SurvivalBlog reader WMJ writes in: “It’s been a while since I’ve gotten a roll of dollars from the local credit union, and I found myself in for something of a shock. I gave the teller USD 25 and asked for a roll of quarters. She didn’t have a roll in her till and went to grab one from the safe. When she got back I was asked for my account number. I thought it odd but gave it to her. While she was pulling up my account I asked why I couldn’t just swap cash for cash. She demurred somewhat. Then I pushed a bit and asked if it was “one of those silly Federal regulations” to which she nodded. Then she said something about internal audits. The receipt showed that I had deposited USD 25 (1 – 20, 1- 5) and withdrew USD 25 (25 – 1). Did I miss something somewhere? Is cash being tracked in some manner?”

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America’s Road To Serfdom: 51% Of Renters Are Over-40 Years Old – Sent in by B.B.

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Items from Mr Econocobas

Middle Class Americans ‘No Longer Majority’

Items from Professor Preponomics:

U.S. News

The Fed’s Painted Itself Into the Most Dangerous Corner in History (Contra Corner)

America’s Middle Class Has Lost 30% of Its Wealth (Market Watch) Spoiler Alert and an Article Quote: “…the share of income held by middle-income families has plunged to 43% of households in 2015 versus 62% in 1971…”

Obamacare Will Shrink the Workforce by 2M by 2025 (Washington Examiner) Spoiler Alert and an Article Quote: “…the bulk of that reduction in workforce would be due to added taxes contained in the law, including ‘implicit’ taxes placed on people who would lose benefits if they worked more under the law.”

Civil Asset Forfeiture is a License to Steal (Memphis Daily News) Hint: The national debate on civil forfeiture is changing, but a substantial amount of work is ahead. It’s no joke. Tennessee earns the failing grade of a D-. This is about protecting and preserving the Constitution and all of America’s citizens. For a quick and easy read, a Wikipedia link is included here as well: Due Process Clause

International News

Chinese Devaluation is a Bigger Danger than an Increase to Rates by the Federal Reserve (The Telegraph)

Chinese Investment in Africa (Visual Capitalist) Commentary: Chinese investment in development around the world comes with extraordinarily important geo-political implications.

Personal Economics and Household Finance

Great Gift Ideas for Frugal People (Frugal Living) Commentary: These are some neat ideas including a couple of “soft preps”!

Odds ‘n Sods:

We knew this was coming. Now it’s here. In fact, it’s here, there, and may soon be everywhere… Scientists Have Found a New Strain of Bacteria Resistant to ALL Antibiotics – Submitted by T.A.

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A disturbing trend carried to an extreme… Still in a Crib, Yet Being Given Antipsychotics – Sent in by D.S.

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An excellent article on True Light Infantry (4gw) sent in by T.Z. Just because you don’t have artillery doesn’t mean you automatically lose the war.

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This article is written from a pro-government-helps standpoint, but it underscores the modern society’s dependence upon others for their basic needs. What happens when a family runs out of food stamps – Sent in by RBS

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Reader S.K. sent in the link to this video profiling a Communications Go Box (Portable Ham Shack). There are also a number of related videos that have a slightly different application.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“No matter how difficult is seems at the time, it’s easier to do the right thing than spend a lifetime regretting that you didn’t.” – Robert E. Omalley, US Marine Corps, Medal of Honor

November in Precious Metals by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover the price action of gold, and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers. What Did Gold Do in November?

Gold fell prey to the Fed and its pet monster the dollar in November. A huge non-farm payrolls report on November 6th set the tone for commodities for the rest of the month. Traders took much better than expected non-farm payrolls as pretty much a guarantee that the Fed would raise rates from near-zero at the December 16th meeting.

The dollar, which was already strong, grew stronger during the month on those rate hike expectations. This put pressure on all commodities that trade internationally in dollar amounts, including precious metals. Gold moved from $1,135 an ounce at the start of November to finish the month near $1,070.

Factors Affecting Gold This Month

CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE

While a parade of Fed officials have spent the month signaling that a rate hike is very probable next month, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have been continuing in the opposite direction. “Super Mario” Draghi, head of the ECB, has pledged to raise inflation “as fast as possible” as the EU looks to be slowing down.

Japan has dropped into its fifth recession in a row, despite the world’s most ambitious QE program. While the BoJ kept rates at the same level at its latest meeting, analysts believe that the pressure will grow for even more stimulus. The question is, what more could they possibly do?

STRONG DOLLAR

Of course, all this overseas talk about money printing had people piling into the US dollar. As November went on and the odds of a Fed rate hike increased, the dollar was pushed up to fresh highs for the year. Dollar was already stronger, thanks to falling euro and yen. As odds of Fed rate hike grew, the dollar became even stronger. Higher interest rates make each dollar worth more.

EU MELTDOWN AFTER DAESH ATTACKS

The Eurozone was already fracturing over a tidal wave of immigrants from the Middle East and Africa before the terrorist attacks in Paris. The attacks, the largest atrocity on French soil since WWII, has brought national security to the forefront. France and other nations are abandoning budgets and austerity measures as they ramp up their security forces and military. European politicians are using the attacks as an excuse to enlarge the surveillance state, just as the US government did with the PATRIOT Act after 9/11.

French president Hollande asked parliament to extend the national state of emergency for three months, and to rewrite the Constitution to allow him more freedom to declare and extend states of emergency. Parliament is also working on what had been called the French PATRIOT Act. Reports note that the Paris attackers did not even use encryption in their texts or emails.

After the attacks in Paris, we have taken to calling this extremist terrorist army by their Arabic nickname, Daesh. They see this name as disrespect and ridicule (because it is, kind of) and threaten to cut out the tongues of anyone who uses it. The word denies them the legitimacy they desperately crave. Every time a news outlet or politician uses “Islamic State,” it cements the view that these murderers and cutthroats are rulers of a nation.

On the Retail Front

Despite the efforts of the proponents of fiat money, and rationing by the US Mint, American Silver Eagle bullion coins are set to make a third annual record in a row. At press time, 2015 ASE sales were at 43 million coins, comfortably in second place. This is only one million coins shy of the all-time record.

Bargain-buying on gold coins led to both the ¼ oz and 1/10 oz 2015 American Gold Eagles selling out in November. This leaves only the 1 oz and ½ oz 2015 Gold Eagles left.

Australia’s Perth Mintannounced on November 5th that gold coin sales in October were the best in over a year, and 21% over this time last year. Silver coin sales were so good, that they had to start rationing them.

Market Buzz

According to Thomson Reuters GFMS, we will see a worldwide silver shortage for the third year in a row this year. Lower prices have seen scrap silver recycling dry up. Mining has also slowed down as copper, lead, and zinc mines are closed due to even worse prices. Nearly 70% of silver comes from these mines, as it often appears with these base metals.

Peter Schiff says there’s no need to fear the rate hike, as gold has shown before that it can flourish in an environment of rising rates.

Lawrie Williams notes the fallacy of the mainstream press using Hong Kong as a measure of Chinese gold imports. China began importing gold directly into Beijing or through Shanghai, to keep prying Western eyes from knowing how much gold they were accumulating. That gold accumulation is still going strong, as it seems that they bought another 14 metric tons of the stuff in October. Russia also continues to be a big buyer, getting good prices by absorbing domestic production. This helps keep the Russian gold mining industry afloat while Western sanctions over Ukraine remain in effect.

On the subject of central banks and gold, our friend Koos Jansen explains why Austria is repatriating its gold from the Bank of England.

The recent GOP Presidential debates exposed mainstream America to the concept of the Gold Standard, as Ted Cruz takes up a cause long espoused by Rand and Ron Paul. Both Paul and Cruz are working to have the Fed audited, as well. This appreciation of sound money is echoed by the CEO of Overstock.com. He has set aside $10 million in physical gold and silver to pay his employees in the event of a collapse in the banking system. He also has stocked a 30-day supply of canned food for every employee and their families.

That bank crisis may not be as far away as many think, as Marc Faber explains that a worsening global economy and money printing overseas will force the Fed to reverse course and do the same.

Peter Schiff explains how the unprecedented quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan is turning that nation into a state-owned economy, and how the US could be next.Even Bloomberg is picking up on just how much of the Japanese economy is now owned by the government.

Over at Casey Research, they run down a list of the best fund managers on Wall St that are getting out of the stock market.

The much-heralded plan by the  Modi government in India to get their citizens to deposit their gold at the bank to earn interest (and let the bank sell and loan that gold) has gotten a resounding raspberry. Only 400 grams (less than 13 troy ounces) has been deposited at banks nationwide. Indians have known for centuries that “if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.”

LOOKING AHEAD

December starts off with Fed Chair Janet Yellen doing her regularly scheduled testimony before the House and Senate on December 2 and 3. The third is also when the ECB has its last policy meeting of the year. All eyes will be on Europe to see if the ECB cuts rates and/or expands its money printing.

The very next day (December 4th,) the November non-farm payrolls will be released. This will be the most important economic report in a long time, as it is seen as the final “go/no go” for the Fed’s interest rate hike. This is going to have a big effect on the dollar and commodities. On December 16th, we finally find out if the Fed is bluffing on a rate hike. If they don’t hike, their credibility (and ability to affect the markets) will be shot. If they do hike, even just a tiny bit, it could have serious effects in emerging markets that could spill over into Europe and the US.

We end this month with the story a Swiss cherry farmer who found a stash of 4,166 ancient Roman coins under his orchard, thanks to a mole that had kicked one out of his burrow. (The government has seized the coins, of course, while the farmer will get a “small finders fee” for his honesty.)

– Steven Cochran is the Content Manager/Editor for Gainsville Coins

Letter Re: Developing a Communications Plan for Your Group, by NM

HJL,

Thank you for the excellent article by N.M. “Developing a Communications Plan for Your Group”. I too have been a Ham for 20 years and have a couple of additions to his article.

Great description on use of repeaters and simplex. When using simplex with VHF and UHF, here are some tips. Height and reducing obstructions are important. If you are using any hand-held radio and are having difficulty communicating with someone else, take a moment to think about your surroundings. If you are inside, move outside if you can. The building you are in will interfere with your transmission and reception. If you are on the ground and can move to a higher level, do it. Most hand-held radios are VHF/UHF “line of sight”. So you will have a better chance connecting if you are on the third floor than on the ground. I’ve also observed new hams holding their radio sideways, like the cops/military guys do in the movies. Hold your radio straight up and down and talk directly into the mic in front of your face. It’s a small thing, but I have seen it make a difference.

If your radio has a power setting like Low, Medium, High, always try to use the least power to communicate. Use just enough power to connect with the other person you are talking with. There are two big advantages– less power means longer battery life and using just enough power to connect means your signal radius is just what you want to communicate with your legitimate party. More power makes your radius larger with more chance of a “bad person” listening in on your position.

N.M. goes over using Ham repeaters in an emergency, but what if the repeaters are down? You can set up a smaller profile repeater using the cross-band function that some mobile radio have. I personally have experience using a Kenwood TM-V71A (http://universal-radio.com/catalog/fm_txvrs/0071a.html). Do a Google search of “Cross Band Repeater” to learn more about it. Setting up a mobile radio with cross band on the top floor of a building or a house on a hill/mountain could extend your hand-held range by 20 miles or so.

Another repeater option that I don’t have experience with but have read about is a simplex repeater. It’s a box that plugs into your hand held radio that has a recording chip. It will record an incoming radio transmission, then immediately play back and transmit that recording. It’s not as fast as true repeaters, but in a pinch it might be what you need. Some simplex repeaters even have a voicemail function where it will record your incoming transmission and retransmit only if a code is transmitted. As N.M. noted, coded transmission is not allowed for Hams but can be used on commercially licensed radios. The brand name I’ve read about is SURECOM, which is a Chinese brand. I found it on www.409shop.com under the tab “Repeaters”.

M.M.

Economics and Investing:

Dishonest Money Will Die – I Hope

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Collapse Of U.S. Shale Oil Production Has Begun

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Items from Professor Preponomics:

U.S. News

Senator Jeff Flake’s New Report – Waste Book 2015: The Farce Awakens (Citizens Against Government Waste) Hint: You’ll not believe this report on the darker side of government spending, from the $1M NIH study involving monkeys in hamster balls riding on treadmills to $210,000 in a Department of Agriculture subsidy for solar powered beer. …and a suggestion: Send a message of thanks to Senator Jeff Flake for his efforts in this regard. …and in a clear, calm, and rational manner, VOICE YOUR VIEWS to the decision makers who represent you and authorize the spending of money that does not really exist.

Anthem, Cigna Shareholders Approve Merger, Antitrust Hurdles Await (Forbes) Commentary: More antitrust concerns are coming, and it’s an important subject (however disinteresting or distant it may seem on the surface) because of its impact on every aspect of economic life from market competition and pricing to diversification and the availability of goods and services according to the needs and interests of consumers.

Big Banks Saved from Fed Dividend Reduction in Highway Bill (GovTrack) Spoiler Alert: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Bank of America are breathing a sign of relief. The rest of us should be ever more aware of the financial mechanics involved in the funding of our banking system.

Are Student Loans a Ticking Time Bomb? (Forbes) Commentary: Largely as a result of the expanded role of the federal government, student loans represent a significant and growing portion of the national debt. Yes. The NATIONAL DEBT. Many people may not yet realize this, but the taxpayer is likely to be on the financial hook for a substantial sum.

International News

Negative Interest Rates an Option in Canada Says Central Bank Governor Stephen Poloz (CBC News) Article Quote: “To put it simply, the Bank of Canada now thinks negative interest rates are a policy option in its tool belt…”

Personal Economics and Household Finance

10 Financial Scams Targeting Our Senior Citizens (Clark Howard)