May in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review,by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover the price action of gold and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers.

What Did Gold Do in May?

Gold began the month with another run at the $1,300 mark but was unable to break through after several attempts. This failure changed sentiment among speculators, leading gold lower. The Federal Reserve, thinking that the markets had stopped listening to them, started an all-out media blitz to stoke fears of another interest rate hike next month. This campaign, combined with a weaker British pound and euro, boosted the dollar. As a higher dollar means lower gold prices, it only helped speculators in their decision to close out their gold bets.

Gold spent the last part of the month successfully testing $1,200 before recovering. Gold prices will likely remain in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting and the Brexit vote in the UK.

Factors Affecting Gold This Month

Brexit

The battle for British hearts and minds continues, ahead of the June 23 vote on whether the UK should secede from the European Union or not. It seems that each poll gives the opposite answer than the previous one. One fact that may indicate the “Leave” side is eating into the “Remain” side’s lead is recent action with English bookies. William Hill bookmakers reported that +85% of referendum bets over the long [Memorial/bank holiday] weekend was for “leave” and this has required them to shorten their “leave” odds. This drama has led the British pound lower, helping to strengthen the U.S. dollar.

Fed Summer Hike

The uncertainty over the Brexit vote (as British polltakers are notoriously inaccurate) should keep the Fed from raising rates in June. The Fed meets just eight days before the Brexit vote. If the UK votes to leave the EU, there will be severe market disruptions and uncertainty. Other anti-EU political parties would take a successful Brexit as the sign to head for the exit themselves. This could force the Fed to immediately reverse the rate hike, causing even fewer people to believe them in the future. Even so, all the chatter from Fed heads has the odds of a June rate hike at 32%, up from 2% at the first of the month.

July is also a possibility, with odds at 58%, but the Fed meeting occurs in the middle of the Democratic Presidential convention. Any decision will be condemned by one side or the other as politically motivated.

Dollar Strength

The Fed strongly pushing the idea of a June or July rate hike has been the biggest influence on the dollar this month. The drop in the British pound over Brexit and the euro over deflation fears has also lent strength to the greenback. One headwind has been the strong demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven currency. This is hurting the Japanese economy, so the central bank has been trying to talk down the exchange rate.

Saudi Arabia And 9/11

The U.S. Senate unanimously passed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) Act, allowing family members of those killed in the September 11, 2001 attacks to sue Saudi Arabia. To pay any judgments awarded by U.S. courts, Saudi assets in the U.S. could be frozen and liquidated.

The Saudis called the bill “Satanic” and threatened to sell $750 million in U.S. Treasuries to destroy the U.S. bond market. There are a couple of problems with that evil plan. Firstly, they only own $116.8 billion in Treasuries (even the Cayman Islands owns twice that); secondly, where would they invest that money? EU bonds have negative interest and so do Japan’s. Maybe the Saudi government could use the cash from a Treasury sale to pay the contractors they have been giving IOUs for payment.

Of course, this is just one headache the Saudis are getting from the U.S. this month. A grassroots movement to release the hidden 28 pages of the 9/11 Commission report is rapidly gaining ground. This would provide the “smoking gun” to find Saudi Arabia guilty of supporting the 9/11 hijackers, nine of which came from Saudi Arabia.

Too bad for the Saudis that they need the U.S. more than we need them. The release of the hidden part of the 9/11 report and the resulting lawsuits would probably lead to tremendous instability in the kingdom, giving Daesh (a.k.a. ISIS) the opportunity to start a revolt against the Royals. With the dismantling of bank secrecy laws, there are no longer numbered Swiss bank accounts for storing ill-gotten gains. The U.S. could ask other countries to freeze Saudi bank accounts for payment of 9/11 lawsuits. Storing gold bullion in a vault leased by a shell company could be the best option for the decadent princes to quickly move their riches to safety.

Negative Interest Rates A Plus For Gold

Record-setting gold demand in Europe is being fueled by a host of dangers all coming together. Negative interest rates by the European Central Bank has depositors pulling their savings out of banks. The threat of a Brexit or the threats from millions of immigrants from the Middle East overrunning the nations of the EU are also adding to uncertainty and safe haven demand.

The same fear of negative interest rates have fueled a remarkable event in Japan. Citizens, afraid that banks may start charging negative rates on deposits, have withdrawn their savings and hidden it at home. Over 40 trillion yen ($360 Billion) is estimated to have been withdrawn out of the banking system and stuffed into futons. This is 8% of Japan’s national GDP hiding in homes.

On the Retail Front

Everyone’s favorite barometer for U.S. silver demand– U.S. American Silver Eagle sales– ended with sales for May just a whisper shy of 4.5 million coins. Total ASE sales through the first five months of the year is 23.4 million coins. If the current rate of demand continues through the year, a mind-boggling 56 million ASEs will be sold.

Let’s hope that the U.S. Mint doesn’t decide to choke demand again this year by cutting off sales or rationing coins.

This month, the Austrian Mint released its sales total for 2015. The Mint sold 1.32 million ounces of gold, an increase of 45%. It also totally blew away 2015 American Gold Eagle sales, which came in at 801,500 ounces.

Market Buzz

Illegal gold mining is a plague across the third world, from South America, where is causes rainforests to be burned down and rivers full of mercury, to South Africa, where deadly gang wars erupt a mile beneath the surface in abandoned gold mines.

The saga of the Texas Gold Depository continues, as proposals start being tendered for the construction of the building. It’s been over a year since the bill authorizing the Depository was signed into law, but the wheels of government turn slowly.

The European Central Bank is confused and irritated that people will not pay negative interest rates for corporate bonds. Really? They actually thought people would do this?

Speaking of central banks, Bill Gross says that QE4, which he calls “helicopter money” for the government, will begin in the next year or so.

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn has taken a stake in gold, saying that all these central bank shenanigans will boost gold’s value.

Another big Wall St. star tells people to dump stocks and grab gold. Stanley Druckenmiller said that people who look at gold as a metal instead of a currency are wrong.

Even George Soros is selling stocks and loading up on gold.

On the other side of the world, Zimbabwe, which is still amazingly messed up, has come up with a plan to address the shortage of U.S. dollars in the economy. It’s going to print its own. Backed by a $200 million loan from the Africa Export-Import Bank, these “bond dollars” are supposed to be claims on that loan equal to the face value of the bill in U.S. dollars. Of course, there is only President Mugabe’s promise not to print a trillion of these, so lots of luck getting people to accept them.

Chavez’s socialist utopia in Venezuela is collapsing around the ears of his successor, Nicolas Maduro. The government is so broke it can’t pay for the chemicals needed to treat its crude oil in order to sell it. The economy is dead, and the people are rioting in the streets yelling, “We are hungry!” We can only hope that some of the people trapped in this nightmare learned to prepare ahead of time, like American preppers.

China’s plan to take over the global gold market continues, as ICBC– the biggest bank in China (and largest in the world)– bought a giant London gold vault from Barclays Bank. The underground vault, in a secret location, can hold up to 2,000 metric tonnes in precious metal. ICBC also recently joined the new London Gold Fix, making it the third Chinese bank on the 13 member committee.

Alan Greenspanwarns that growth in entitlement programs are outstripping productivity growth, leading the Western world to disaster: “We have a global problem of a shortage in productivity growth and it’s not only the United States but it’s pretty much around the world and it’s being caused by the fact that the populations everywhere in the Western world, for example, are aging and we are not committing enough of our resources to fund that.”

Looking Ahead

June will be all sorts of volatile, with the Fed policy meeting, the Brexit vote, and the increasing blowback against the flood of illegal immigrants in Europe. A successful Brexit will bring fears of independence movements erupting across Europe. On the other side of the world, worries about a “hard landing” for the Chinese economy will roil markets and cause commodity prices to fall. Globally, the G7 countries are already accusing each other of currency devaluation through QE and negative interest rates.

We end this month wondering if the guy who built Hillary’s email server used to work at the Fed, as Reuters reports More Than 50 Security Breaches Recorded at Federal Reserve.

Letter Re: Hunting for Self Sufficiency

Hugh,

I am not sure how far the writer is from the Georgia Border, but you can hunt feral hogs year round, 24/7, with night vision, flashlight; it doesn’t matter. Farmers in Georgia do have issues with these non-native animals that were introduced for sport hunting in the early days of this nation. If you can find a farmer that would allow you to hunt (and if Georgia is not that far from you), you should be able to take quite a harvest. You can even hunt over bait with these critters. I am amazed that Florida would only allow hog harvest for a few weeks a year, as they do reproduce rapidly and are destructive. The cost of an out-of-state hunting license and transportation may be cost prohibitive, but if they are not consider butchering them yourselves. They are not that hard to process, although the skin is very thick– twice the thickness of deer. WOW, the meat is sweet; it’s some of the best tasting meat I have ever had. Good luck – RT in Georgia.

Economics and Investing:

SurvivalBlog reader T.T. sent in the link to this interview with Felix Zulauf in which investing, markets, and gold are discussed. Monetary Stimulation Creates Bubbles, Not Prosperity Nor Growth.

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Greece to co-produce Kalashnikov rifles with Russia – H.L.

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Puerto Rico’s U.S. Rescue Won’t Come Soon Enough to Halt Default

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Silver Will Move The Most of All The Metals

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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.

Odds ‘n Sods:

At least Two Shot In UCLA “Gun Free Zone” – Let me get this straight. Two people are killed with guns in a “gun free” zone in a nearly “gun free” state. Of course, the responders had guns as well. It appears to me that the only people who didn’t have guns were the victim and potential victims. – DSV

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Another article about Venezuela: ‘We can’t go on like this’: Shortages, economic crisis make Venezuela a nation of lines. We are headed down this same path. How are workers supposed to wait in line for food when they’re at work? Do they take the day off and miss a day’s pay? If they miss work, they’re losing the money they need to buy over-priced necessities. – C.L.

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For the DIYer: Raspberry Pi IR Wi-Fi camera – K.S.

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Police are filing warrants for Android’s vast store of location data – T.Z.

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U.S. Immigration at 15-Year High With 3 Million Arrivals Over the Past Two Years – B.B.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Of course most people underestimate the warrior characteristics of the Anglo-Saxon and Norman peoples anyway. It takes a heap of piety to keep a Viking from wanting to go sack a city.” – Jerry Pournelle, in a reply to a reader’s e-mail in Chaos Manor Mail #141, February 19-25, 2001

Notes for Thursday – June 02, 2016

On June 2, 1774, Parliament renewed the quartering Act allowing British military to stay in private homes if necessary, completing the Coercive Acts. The Quartering Act, in conjunction with the Massachusetts Government Act, the Administration of Justice Act, and the Boston Port Act, were known as the Coercive Acts. These Acts were Parliament’s way of asserting their control over the colonists after the Boston Tea Party and were one of the main motivations for the 3rd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

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Our SurvivalRealty spinoff has some great retreat properties, but this latest one is almost unique, straddling the Idaho/Montana state line, at low elevation, with a mild climate: Whitestone Ranch – Idaho/Montana Horse and Cattle Ranch. The advantages of having a full time residence/retreat in two states like this are innumerable. You can take advantage of differences in sales and income taxes, differences in vehicle registration fees, disparity of mailing addresses, disparity of time zones, disparity of phone area codes, choice of “in state” college tuition, and if you build a second residence, your family members can take their pick of hunting and fishing licenses from either state. I have personally taken an ATV tour of this ranch (along with a consulting client who was considering buying part of it), and it is truly amazing. This retreat has it all: great pasture and hay ground, lots of water, mature timber, and it is fairly close to a minor highway but out of sight and defendable. I have also seen the resident elk herd there, and the big 6×6+ bulls are astounding. I would put this retreat property at the top of my list! – JWR

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Today, we present another entry for Round 65 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
  6. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  7. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
  8. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  9. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  3. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  4. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  5. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  8. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)
  9. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
  3. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 65 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Five Common Mistakes New Preppers Make and How to Avoid Them- Part 2, by S.M.

Practicing Poor Opsec (continued)

There are a lot of different ways to see if a person is receptive to prepping or whether they are sheep. Help those who ask for your help or are interested in becoming prepared. I actually put together an easy 30 day pantry list and have been asked for a copy by several people shortly after the “winter weather” discussion I mentioned earlier. They can easily grow from there on their own. Some other great topics that you can work around to a preparedness conversation that I like to use are:

  • Civil Unrest. Everyone is discussing and following politics right now, and I frequently hear people who worry about riots, civil unrest, and martial law.
  • The Economy. More people than I would have originally thought are concerned about the markets being artificially propped up or skewed data from the BLM. Many times these conversations lead to discussion of the possibility of a massive economic collapse, the fall of the petro dollar, and other related topics.
  • The Backpack Gun. I’m including this one because honestly I am surprised at how often it leads to connecting with like-minded folks. I am always in the market for good deals on guns. When I come across someone who trades or sells guns, I always tell them I’m in the market for a small caliber pistol just to throw in my backpack. Not only have I picked up a few deals on pistols this way, but I have on multiple occasions been met with a response like, “Oh yeah, I keep a bug out bag in my car and one at work” or “Everyone should have a reliable gun in their GOOD bag; I’ll see what I can find you” without me ever mentioning it was anything more than a backpack.

Those are all good conversation starters that allow you to quickly tell the mindset of the person you are talking too. If they aren’t on the same page as you, change the subject. They won’t ever think twice about it. If they are on the same page as you, proceed with caution but continue discussion; you may have just made a very valuable connection.

Another thing to think about, especially if you live and shop in a small town, is being aware of what you buy and how often you buy it. If you go down to a mom and pop grocery store and are buying 25 pounds of beans and rice every week or 100 rolls of toilet paper when you’ve never purchased those items in those quantities before, people are going to notice. Pick up a little here and there, if you are forced to buy it at your local grocery. We have a Sam’s Club 30 miles from our home, and it is well worth the time and membership to be able to go there. Buy in bulk, because that’s the way it comes at Sam’s and you don’t have someone who lives three blocks over from you ringing out your groceries wondering why you need so much dried food. This is obviously more prevalent in a small town. If you live in a large metropolitan area, then you have much bigger obstacles to figure out than what the grocery clerk thinks of your unusual purchase. Even in rural small town America, I won’t move preps into or out of their location during the daylight. It is tougher working in the dark, but it sure beats the prying eyes of neighbors and the random passersby. Always be conscious of how what you’re doing and buying looks to an outsider and do everything you possibly can to minimize your family’s exposure.

Not Having a Physical Library

Assembling a library of how-to books in the digital age is nearly effortless. I currently have over 1,000 digital books, all related to being prepared for a crisis and self sufficiency. Most of these I’ve found while researching specific subjects online. In the information age, it is so easy to find a plethora of information on any subject. Don’t take this for granted. All of my digital books are backed up on redundant systems. More importantly take into account the books that you reference the most, and make sure that you have printed copies. My physical library is nowhere near as expansive as my digital library, but the books that I reference most frequently are also available to me in printed form and with proper care will last a very long time. I cannot stress enough to you that no matter how many times you have your digital library backed up, you still absolutely need good old-fashioned printed books. Three of my most commonly referenced books that I own in both digital and print editions are:

Patriots: Surviving The Coming Collapseby James Wesley, Rawles

The Encyclopedia of Country Living by Carla Emery

Where There Is No Doctor: A Village Health Care Handbookby David Werner, Carol Thurman, And Jane Maxwell.

Failure to Develop Skills

Food storage is finite, survival devices wear out eventually, and books deteriorate with age. In the end, the people who are best prepared will be the ones who took the time to develop their skills prior to the crisis. Develop your skills now, while you have every modern luxury available to you. The worst time to learn about gardening is when you and your family are depending on the harvest for your very survival. There is a plethora of survival items available for purchase in today’s marketplace, most of which are very useful but also, like every item manufactured today, has a limited lifespan.

It is my opinion (and I’m sure some readers will disagree with me here) that sooner or later prepping should evolve into self reliance. How do you know how much food to store to endure a crisis? You simply don’t. It is generally agreed upon that having a year’s supply for your household plus extra for charity is a reasonable goal. However, a year can go by very fast and the changes that come about in those twelve months may not necessarily be for the better. Year two could be much worse than the first. If you only prepared for a year at worst and didn’t take the time to develop critical skills when you had the chance, you very likely won’t see the end of year two. Work towards educating yourself while you have abundant resources at your fingertips. After you study a particular area then put what you learned to use. Below are some ideas of key skills to learn:

  • Gardening. Study gardening this fall, and follow up by planting a garden in the spring. You may not think you have room for a garden, but a great deal can be learned by maintaining even the smallest container gardens.
  • Automotive maintenance and repair. Learn to work on your own cars, and do your own repairs and diagnostics when you can.
  • Lifestock care and management. More and more places are allowing backyard hens. If you live in a place that does, then get a few and raise them for meat and eggs. The same is true with rabbits. They are easy to keep in even the smallest yards. If that’s not a possibility, ask around about local farmers who might let you help around their farm so you can learn the ins and outs of keeping livestock. I know very few farmers who would pass up the opportunity to have an extra hand around on the weekends.
  • Outdoor cooking. You could build a solar oven and begin using it this weekend, or perhaps build a cob oven with your family over the next few weekends and use it to cook your next batch of homemade pizza.
  • Water collection and purification. Set up a rainwater collection system and learn the different methods for purification, boiling, distillation, chlorination, ceramic filtration, et cetera. (If you have built a solar oven, then you could also build a solar still.)
  • Firearm proficiency. Become proficient with your firearms. Yes, ammo is expensive, but missing your target in a life or death situation is more expensive. If you already own a firearm and are anything less than proficient in its use, then you are simply allowing the possession of a tool to provide you with a false sense of security. Train often and stay sharp.

Not developing these and other critical skills could, in the worse case, cost your life and your loved one’s lives. At best, it will make for a very stressful transition period with lots and lots of trial and error. The more self reliant you are the better prepared you are.

God blessed you with the ultimate survival tool and placed it right between your ears. It’s up to you to make the most use of it.

Letter Re: Hunting for Self Sufficiency

James,

I’ve been a follower of your blog for many years and find it both a good resource and a great way to keep your ear to the ground among all the survival/prepper sites that trend to sensationalism and speculation. Patriots was my first real fiction and began a great love of survival fiction. Thirty or forty books later and daily searching for solid tips on the prepper blogs, I believe the time has been well spent.

My wife and I live alone, and due to a degenerative neurological affliction neither one of us can work and I am her 24/7 caretaker. We were blessed with a good nest egg, so I struggled to make wise decisions on what hard assets and survival items to purchase and what training to take on. At this point, we could probably subsist for a year on our food stores, with both medical and dental supplies, as well as utilizing assets. The expectations were realistic, and we adhered to the one is none adage, and days if not weeks of research are done before purchases were made. My personal justification for a substantial purchase was to require that the purchase would be a contribution to our monthly self-sufficiency as well as future emergencies too. Fast forward about three years now; we are needing to reduce our spending as our investment days are done. One of the skills I chose to work on was hunting. Starting at 60 years old wasn’t optimum, but I’ve developed some skill and success at wild boar hunting. Recipes, smoking skills, and a large freezer were acquired.

My experience is in both tree stand and limited spot and stalk. In one afternoon, I can produce a large amount of meat for the freezer, and the time in the wild is a great aid to peace of mind as well. Here in Florida, there are private hunting businesses that charge as low as about $145 per meat hog and about $295 for over two hundred pound trophy hogs. The boar produces about 45-50% of its on-the-hoof weight in edible meat, and I rely on a local butcher to process the meat at $1 per pound. The outfitters are located at some distance from my residence, so gas is a factor at about $60-65 per round trip. Add to that the cost of hiring a caretaker to watch my wife during my absence and a tip for the guide, and it adds up. Though the skills acquired were valuable for more than just hunting and the freezer was filled multiple times over the last year and a half, I have to cut that margin at this point in our retirement and with the remaining nest egg status.

The outfitters tend to price the hunts at the break-even point for most hunters after paying for all expenses. Sales on fryer parts and ground beef probably beats any attempt at hunting for cost saving on wild boar vs. sale meats. While boar is considered an invasive species and in season year round, there are no limits on harvest or sex of game. In spite of that, all Florida public lands only allow boar hunting for a few weeks of the year in special WMAs and are in direct competition with deer hunters the rest of the year or muzzle loaders and bows the remainder. It almost seems like the goal is to make sure the citizen has no viable option to provide for a family table than through their severe restrictions and complicated windows to hunt. Sportsman hunters are free to spend great sums of money, but the subsistence hunter or retiree is without sound economical recourse. A husband of a friend told me he just paid $2100 for a hunt club membership. Even at that increased availability, I doubt he could ever recoup the membership cost with meat even if he hunted each and every weekend.

Wild boars reproduce exponentially every year, causing millions in damage to both commercial and farming lands. I’m new to hunting. What am I missing? Can it be done? – DK

HJL’s Comment: With such a limited hunting season, I suspect that it would be difficult to be self sufficient harvesting animals from the wild. However, the SurvivalBlog readership may have ideas on this. Let’s hear what they have to say.

Economics and Investing:

Lost Decade for Value Stocks Tests Faithful Who Say End is Nigh

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“The Economy Is Better Off Now Than When I Started” – Obama Delivers Remarks On The State Of The Economy – Now go wipe that spewed coffee off of your computer monitor. – B.B.

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Items from Mr. Econocobas:

Alan Greenspan: “We’re Running To A State Of Disaster” – Like the end of the article, “If only he had not gotten us in this mess in the first place”, perhaps only if the Fed had not, not just Greenspan

Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Plunges

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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Samuel Culper of Forward Observer Magazine recently recorded a webinar on Intelligence Preparation of the Community (77mins). It’s a great introduction to the need for intelligence in community security and prepping.

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Snowden Explains How to Protect Your Smartphone From NSA Hackers – DSV

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‘All Critical Infrastructure Sectors are at Risk from EMP’ – RBS

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Britain really is ceasing to be a Christian country – Submitted by G.G.

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SurvivalBlog reader S.G. wrote in to let us know that the information in the article on the giant alligator, to which we had a link yesterday in Odds ‘n Sods, was wrong. The article stated that the ‘gator was in Las Vegas, but it is actually in Florida. Those Floridians take pride in their ‘gators!

Notes for Wednesday – June 01, 2016

On June 1st, 1942, seven months after the extermination of prisoners began, the Warsaw underground newspaper, the Liberty Brigade, made the public announcement of the gassing of tens of thousands of Jews at Chelmno, a Nazi-operated death camp in Poland. The story came from a young man, Emanuel Ringelblum, who had escaped the Chelmno death camp after being forced to bury bodies as they were thrown out of the gas vans. The West now knew the horrific truth about the slaughter of Jews.

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Today, we present the first entry for Round 65 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
  6. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  7. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
  8. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  9. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  3. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  4. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  5. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  8. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)
  9. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
  3. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 65 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Round 64 Non-Fiction Writing Contest Winners Announced!

First Prize goes to B1 for “Crises Preparation- Part 1”, “Part 2”, and “Part 3”, which was posted on April 8th, 9th, and 10th, 2016.

  1. A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
  6. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  7. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
  8. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  9. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize goes to B.G. for “Surviving the 2015 Fire of Lake County California- Part 1” and “Part 2”, Which was posted on May 3rd and 4th, 2016.

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  3. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  4. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  5. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  8. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)
  9. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Third Prize goes to B.F. for “Project Management for Preppers- Part 1” and “Part 2”, which was posted on April 21st, and 22nd, 2016.

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
  3. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Honorable Mention prizes ($30 Amazon.com gift certificates via e-mail) have been awarded to the writers of these fine articles:

Five Common Mistakes New Preppers Make and How to Avoid Them- Part 1, by S.M.

Those new to prepping, and even those more experienced, will often find themselves overwhelmed with not only information that is often conflicting but with tasks. “Where do I even start?” is a common question. It is my intention to help you become less overwhelmed and more organized in what you will soon realize is a marathon journey rather than a sprint. In doing so, I will attempt to keep my particular opinions to a minimum and just provide helpful information to the readers.

Failure to Properly Assess Your Situation

There’s an old saying, “If you fail to plan, then you plan to fail.” This could not be truer than when it comes to survival. Failure to assess your individual situation from the beginning can and most likely will leave you more unprepared than you would like to believe. If you are new to prepping and just getting started, the first thing on your list should be a complete assessment. If you have been prepping for a while and have not done a proper assessment of your specific needs, then now is a good time to do so. Some of the things to consider are:

Bug In, or Bug Out?

A lot of people have Bug Out Bags and plan on bugging out in a crisis but lack any type of clear destination. If you are bugging out, have a destination with a pre-planned route, preferably with two alternate routes. Determine what preps you can preposition at your retreat. The less you have to load up in a bug out scenario, the better. Pay particular attention to the storage climate of your preps. Having a year’s worth of supplies stored in a remote cabin that experiences temperature extremes will invariably shorten the storage life of the items you are storing.

Bugging in has just as many considerations. How close are you to a major thoroughfare or metropolitan area? Being too close to a heavily populated area greatly increases the potential threat to you and your loved ones. What is your neighborhood like? Would your neighbors be an immediate threat or are they like minded and potentially an asset in a crisis? You don’t want to have to figure this out at the onset of a major crisis.

Available Storage Space

Regardless of whether you are bugging in or bugging out you will soon be faced with the confines of your available storage space. There is a lot of information on creative storage to be found online that can be adapted for use with survival preparedness. Properly assessing your storage situation at the onset will give you additional time for implementing creative storage solutions that you find helpful or a secondary location to store a portion of your preps. (This should be done anyway, whenever possible. Don’t keep all of your eggs in one basket.)

Your family’s particular needs for a week, a month, and even a year

This is often where new preppers begin to feel overwhelmed. Sit down and make a list of your family’s needs for a week, including food, water, medications, et cetera. For example, a four person household would require three meals per day multiplied by four people; that’s 12 individual meals per day. One gallon of water per person, at the bare minimum, comes out to four gallons of water per day. For one week that amounts to 84 individual meals and 28 gallons of water. For one month, you would need 357 meals and 119 gallons of water (based on 4.25 weeks in an average month).

You can quickly see how the available storage becomes very relevant. A note about calculating your meals: Pay little to no attention to the serving size listed on the product packaging. If a box meal says it has six servings in it and you normally have to prepare two boxes to feed your family of four, then it has two servings per box. Serving sizes on retail food are often unrealistic and are made smaller to reflect a lower calorie count per serving, which brings me to my next point. Do pay attention to calories of meals. If you plan three meals per day but those meals only amount to 700 calories combined, you’re going to be going to bed hungry. In an extended crisis, you will likely be burning many more calories than you do working in an office now. Account for that. I also feel obligated at this point to explain that box meals, like I used in my above example, have a very short shelf life and should only be used for a well-stocked pantry that is easily rotated and used to prevent loss.

Failure to Have a Well-Balanced Approach

Having a year supply of dried foods in mylar bags and sealed in 5-gallon buckets won’t do you a lot of good if you don’t have water to cook it or to drink. Having a well-stocked pantry and a reliable water supply won’t matter much if you depend on life saving medication and have only a week’s supply on hand. When performing your initial assessment, keep in mind that you will need at the very least:

When I help people get started, I always suggest starting with a week’s worth of supplies, utilizing a well balanced approach. (To many of the readers that may sound silly, but you would be surprised by how many people do not have enough food on hand to last their family one week. It is truly astonishing.) From there, it becomes easier to establish a month’s worth of supplies. Then, while maintaining a balanced approach and not weighting any necessity heavier than the other, begin working on a three month supply. So on and so forth. You are only as well prepared as your weakest preparation. If you have tons of food and water but lack critical medication for your survival, then you are only providing yourself and your family with a false sense of security. You may have 30 various guns and cases of ammo but only a week’s supply of food. If that’s the case, then you’re only prepared to endure a crisis for a week. If survival is your goal, then there is no other way to look at it. Every critical item is equally important. Avoid the temptation to store three months worth of food and not have a means of defense in order to protect yourself from thieves. Don’t be tempted to buy a new gun for which you can’t afford to also purchase an adequate supply of ammo; otherwise, all you have really purchased is an overpriced Billy club. You cannot possibly be prepared for every situation, but don’t let that stop you from preparing for the ones looking you right in the face.

Practicing Poor Opsec

When you first begin prepping, you quickly realize what an enormous peace of mind comes with it, especially once you hit your first major milestone of having a complete 30 days of supplies on hand. Knowing that you can be at home and not have to leave for anything during and following a crisis is a feeling of independence that is nearly indescribable. You will want to tell everyone you know to do the same and what all supplies you have and how you and your family store food, water, et cetera. Don’t do it. This could be a fatal lapse in operational security for you and your loved ones. Resist the temptation to discuss this aspect of your life off the cuff with just anyone. More often than not, the typical person’s response will be something along the lines of “Well I know where I’m going if things get bad– your house!” The average person is too naïve and or too lazy to even think about anything but today. I feel it is my duty to help anyone who is willing to help themselves. There are probably a million ways to strike up a conversation and get around to the subject of being prepared without disclosing the extent of your family’s preparations. I often discuss being prepared with people during the winter months under the pretext of the possibilities of a bad winter and how the stores in our area are picked clean as soon as winter weather makes it into the forecast. This opens up a lot of doorways to discussions about how relatively easy it is to have a 30 day emergency pantry stocked. If they have any interest at all in being prepared, they will ask questions or ask for help. If they don’t, I quickly shift the conversation by saying “Then again, winter may not be bad at all this year” and change topics to something else. That’s just a singular example.

Letter: Discounted Freeze Dried Food Sources

Hugh,

I’m reasonably sure lots of your readers are aware, but just in case… Costco (online) has lots of freeze dried foods at really good prices compared to other vendors online. Apparently they buy overstock from many suppliers. Anyway, I just got a case of six #10 cans of Mountain House Breakfast Skillet for $149 with UPS shipping included in the price. Also, I got a case of MH Chicken Stew for $139, with the same free shipping deal.

The prices of these items are usually between $185 and $200 PLUS shipping at three of the popular online providers. (I won’t mention any names.) Costco also has low cost freeze dried products from several other manufacturers with the same deal of free UPS shipping.

No, I don’t have stock in Costco, but a deal is a deal. Thought you would like to know. – B.