Five Letters Re: Full Capacity Magazine Price Increases are Already Here

Jim, I wanted to contribute this the following to your ongoing discussion on high capacity magazines. Selling high capacity magazines is normally a small part of our business, but that changed last week. Between October 31 and today, we have sold more than I normally sell in a year. I had stocked up anticipating increased demand, but was nowhere near prepared for the huge surge in sales that we experienced. A normal order was 3 to 6 magazines, now it is 12 or more and we have had several customers buy in quantities of 100+. As a result, we are …




Letter Re: Market Observations From The Trader Blog

Mr. Rawles – Thank you for your recent mention of my site, TheTraderBlog.com. I am a former Lehman Brothers employee, I worked in New York City on the FX trading desk, but left in 2002, so I am glad to have missed all the recent excitement. I publish my blog in an effort to help me reason through my personal trading strategies, and also like to share my opinion about the markets and related events in general. I have not yet figured out how to make any money off of the site, so for now it is just a great …




Letter Re: The Depression of the 1930s–Why No Societal Collapse?

Hi Jim, I really enjoyed reading your novel “Patriots”. I’ve read a few other books also, like “Lucifer’s Hammer” and I have to admit that they spurred me to buy a 22 LR [rimfire rifle] as a starter. I’ve been doing a lot of thinking of our current situation in this country and it occurs to me that every generation has things going on that is very concerning. But in particular was thinking the Great Depression should have been a good example of things going to h*ll. Yet there was not this great meltdown where people needed to go to …




Letter Re: How to Handle Real Estate Holdings in a Economic Depression

Sir: If the global economy melts down and we experience a “greater depression” or worse. What is the best strategy for real estate that is already owned? I own a primary home and two rental properties in central Virginia but if the SHTF, I’m going to retreat along with numerous family members, to our farm about 25-30 miles from the nearest city. (It has hundreds of acres for growing, and has ample water, etc.) I don’t have substantial equity in any of my three houses and all mortgages 30 year fixed through Bank of America. Is it worth continuing to …




The Financial Crisis Will Soon Abate, But The Real Crisis Will Soon Begin, by Steve Saville

In an essay first published in 1969 and recently re-published, Murray Rothbard summarizes the causes and cures of economic depressions by drawing on the Business Cycle theory developed by the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises. Here’s an excerpt from this essay: “Mises, then, pinpoints the blame for the cycle on inflationary bank credit expansion propelled by the intervention of government and its central bank. What does Mises say should be done, say by government, once the depression arrives? What is the governmental role in the cure of depression? In the first place, government must cease inflating as soon as …




Four Letters Re: Currency Inflation Expectations for the US

James: The letter [from reader PNG] has severe mistakes and is fundamentally misleading – your readers deserve even more refutation before anyone is lulled into a false sense of security. To quote: “Let’s say the Treasury just invents another two trillion dollars by printing currency and forgiving loans. Let’s say they do that every year for the next five years. How much inflation would that create? The absolute maximum inflation rate from this example is about 20%, because there’s ten trillion dollars in circulation already.” These numbers are incredibly far off the mark. Actually M1 is the narrow definition of …




Letter Re: Currency Inflation Expectations for the US

Jim, You recently wrote: “The Treasury will undoubtedly be forced to monetize a good portion of the National Debt. This is effectively creating money out of thin air. Each new dollar so created will dilute the purchasing power of the dollars that are already in circulation (Both paper and electronic “dollars”.) This wholesale dollar fabrication will be outrageously inflationary. Be prepared for double digit and then triple digit inflation in the next few years.” Let’s say the Treasury just invents another two trillion dollars by printing currency and forgiving loans. Let’s say they do that every year for the next …




Don’t Confuse the COMEX Spot Prices with Retail Reality–Bullion Coin Supplies are Tight!

I was recently chided by one of my readers for being “dead wrong” about the direction in the spot price of silver. I had to laugh about that. The COMEX spot price of both silver and gold have indeed been pushed down in recent weeks. But this is an artifice. This has been attributed to some massive and well-orchestrated short selling in the futures market. The spot market typically echoes moves in the futures market. This short selling has distorted the COMEX spot price significantly. This distortion has become so pronounced that at this point the official COMEX prices do …




Letter Re: What Happened, and What Should We Watch For?

Jim, Thanks for the awesome blog. I consider it essential reading every day, especially now considering the terrible situation we find ourselves in. You keep speaking of mass inflation yet we see oil and other commodities falling in price along with, sadly, our home values. In a recent post you also mentioned being able to buy classic cars at rock bottom prices, closely followed by hyperinflation. Can you explain for all of us how this can come to pass and some of the warning signs? Thanks, – DZ in Louisiana. JWR Replies: To clarify, I mentioned buying older, fuel-inefficient vehicles …




Letter Re: The Icelanders’ Tangibles Shopping Spree

James, Check out this article that I found on Bloomberg.com Icelandic Shoppers Splurge as Currency Woes Reduce Food Imports. It looks like Iceland is in deep Schumer – running out of food. This reminds me of your warnings regarding Hawaii and Alaska – though the same problem can happen in the lower 48 on a grander scale, since we no longer produce enough food. It is time to move my family back to Montana! Best to you and yours.- Stewart R. P.S.: Back in 1999 I bought several Wiggy’s brand sleeping bags. Those bags are wonderful. JWR Replies: We can …




Letter Re: Pre-Paying Utility Companies in Anticipation of Worsening Banking Disruptions?

Dear Mr. and Mrs. Rawles, Thank you for your excellent blog. My husband and I are benefiting tremendously from the hard work you have put in to this valuable resource. My question: With banking integrity a growing uncertainty, would it be prudent to devote our rather limited capital to build up a credit balance with our utility providers (water, electric and natural gas) in anticipation of possible interruptions in bank transactions? We do have modest contingency back-up systems for all three supplies but as long as the grid holds up we will use the utilities. Sincerely, – Mrs. T. from …




Like Something Out of a Novel–Some Predictions for 2009-to-2019

The economic headlines in the past couple of weeks have sounded like something out of a disaster novel that I once read wrote. The international financial and equities markets are spinning out of control, with seemingly wider and wider gyrations with each passing day. Since there are so many variables, the end result is difficult to firmly predict, but one thing is clear: It will be neither easy nor pleasant. My current prediction is that the governments of the English-speaking nations and Europe will co-conspire with the banksters to concoct the most grandiose Mother of All Bailouts (MOABs) yet. This …




Letter Re: Males – 15-25 Will Be the Most Dangerous Segment of Our Population in TEOTWAWKI

James, I believe in a TEOTWAWKI situation the most dangerous segment of the roving gangs will be the displaced teenage men. After all those are the ones that are warriors in other countries, not the fat 40’s couch potatoes. They are strong, tough and smart. In essence, we will be fighting our own neighbor’s children. Consider this news article from Arizona: Suburban gang’s rise unnerves authorities. Respectfully, – Robert O. JWR Replies: Sadly, I have to agree with you. OBTW, our friends in England refer them as “Yobs”, “Yobbos”, “Townies”, or “Chavs”.




From the SurvivalBlog Archives: Hedge Funds–A Disaster Story that Could Unfold in Quarterly Episodes

One of the consequences of the collapse of the credit bubble and the subprime lending fiasco in particular is with hedge funds. There is a substantial risk of uncontrollable instability in hedge funds that could potentially be disastrous for investors. This instability will likely be seen in waves of bad news that will come roughly once a quarter. First, let me provide a bit of background: 1.) Most hedge funds have rules that allow only quarterly redemptions (“cashing out”) by by their investors. (A few hedge funds even have only one annual redemption “window.”) Typically, the redemption requests must be …




Our Changing Times: The Advent of Rule 157 and Perhaps Rule 308

We are living in unprecedented times. The global economy is being asphyxiated for lack of credit, and we face the prospect of an economic depression that could be worse than the Great Depression of the1930s. The Advent of Rule 157 One of the contributing factors in the unfolding banking debacle was the advent of Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Rule 157, that went partially into effect on November 15, 2007. This was a financial accounting rule change that yanked the bankers back from the Fantasyland games that they had been playing with Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), Credit Default Swaps (CDSs), …