There have been only two wars truly fought on American soil– the Civil War and the American Revolution. Both wars were preceded by strong internal conflict– the Abolitionists vs. State Sovereignty in the Civil War, and the Patriots vs. the Loyalists in the Revolutionary War.
Sparks of Internal Conflict
Yet while those internal conflicts were certainly fierce, there have always been sparks of internal conflict. Why do some sparks ignite a crisis while others smolder out?
Historical Patterns
The answer, I believe, lies in a series of historical patterns outlined that may be crucial in predicting whether our current political divide will lead to our third great war.
The First Historical Pattern
The first historical pattern was brilliantly laid out by William Strauss and Neil Howe in their book, The Fourth Turning. The core idea is that our nation’s major events happen within a 100-year cycle that generally repeats itself. The cycle has four “seasons”, each lasting roughly 25 years, which is the length of a generation. These include:
- The High
- The Awakening
- The Unraveling
- The Crisis
The High
“The High” is a period of national unity, patriotism, and progress. Many reading this might recall the most recent High, which was post-WWII when the country came together to celebrate the end of the war. It was a time of great energy and enthusiasm. There was a sense of optimism about the future, advances in technology, prosperity, and a collective purpose for the country.
The High acts as a clean up or reset following a crisis and sets the stage for an awakening. Since the High generations place great value on authority, government, and technology, their children are poised to rebel against those very values.
The Awakening
Our most recent “Awakening” happened in the mid-60’s and grew until the late 70’s. The 60’s and 70’s were a generation that rebelled against the notions of war, conformity, and moral standards.
This generation no longer found value in their local community or national patriotism but rather looked inwardly as their source of purpose. The hippie movement promised spirituality through self. Drugs and music were pathways to internal harmony.
The sexual revolution and feminism sought to break that generation free of the moral bonds their parents placed on them. However, as the boomer generation aged, the irresponsibility and self-centeredness took a toll on their children, who responded accordingly.
The Unraveling
From the mid-80’s to the 2000’s, civic attitudes had transformed into the opposite of what they had been in the High. An attitude of abundance replaced the old sense of scarcity. Trust in authority diminished, and trust in self increased. There was a war for the culture of America with tribalism along ideological lines taking firm shape.
Americans turned cynical. The nation was becoming fragmented on issues like race, sexuality, religion, and politics. Television and video games were raising children. Crack cocaine was becoming an epidemic, and legalized gambling was on the rise. The decades in this area are marked by risk taking, bad manners and a sobering social attitude.
As the “Unraveling” winds down, Americans will get fed up with the YOLO (You Only Live Once) recklessness and risk taking of the past few decades. The mood will turn pessimistic. The celebrity idolization will feel hollow. The mood of spirituality will darken, and a feeling of decay and despair will be prevalent.
People are looking for a big change to occur. We are primed for the fourth turning.
The Crisis
Every Crisis period begins with a catalyst, a spark that catches fire, an event or series of events that creates a sudden shift in mood. In the American Revolution it was the Boston Tea Party. For the Civil War it was the election of Abraham Lincoln and the Union debacle at Bull Run. With the Great Depression it was Black Tuesday.
It doesn’t really matter what the spark is; what matters is that this time it produces a flame. The core elements (economic pressure, social divisiveness, international frustrations) will become interconnected by a single event, which will cause an outburst by one group and an escalated response by the opposing.
Fear will take root. Fear that the government cannot sustain the entitlements many rely on. Fear that jobs cannot be retained and debts will not be repaid. Fear that America’s weaknesses are now exposed to foreign dangers. This fear will move America to isolation, which will manifest itself in imitation and aggression, transitioning itself from a post-war posture into a pre-war era.
The Cycle Repeated in Europe and America
This cycle of High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis has repeated every 70-100 years in Europe and America since the 1400s. Consider how consistent the time periods between crisis have been:
- Wars of the Roses (1459-1487)
- Armada Crisis (1569-1594): 100 years since War of the Roses
- Glorious Revolution (1675-1704): 106 years since Armada Crisis
- American Revolution (1773-1794): 98 years since Glorious Revolution
- Civil War (1860-1865): 87 years since American Revolution
- Great Depression and World War II (1929-1946): 69 years since Civil War
An average of 92 years pass between each crisis event. If we added 92 years to the last crisis event– the Great Depression in 1929– we would get the year 2021.
A Strong Data Point
That average of 92 years between each crisis event to 2021 is a strong data point in itself but becomes even more interesting when you overlay this pattern over top the lifespan of a world empire outlined by the brilliant Sir John Glubb in his renowned essay, The Fate of Empires.
The Fate of Empires is a deep dive into the life cycle of every world Super Power, 11 in total, in Europe and the Middle East going back to the Assyrian empire in 859 B.C. He discovered that all 11 empires are quite consistent in both their life stages as well as their duration.
Only one world super power has lasted more than 250 years with the average duration of 238 years. If we use 1776 as the starting point for America, after 238 years we expect the fall to be in 2014. However, as we’ll look at shortly, 2014 falls squarely in the middle of an Unravel generation in which the national attitude isn’t quite primed for a crisis.
As we are now in 2019, we’ve already surpassed the average duration of a Super Power, and we’re quickly headed toward the upper limit of 250 years, which will take place in 2026. The year 2026 also marks the end of the Unraveling era.
Glubb’s Six Life Stages
Let’s look at Glubb’s six life stages to see where America falls in its life cycle as an empire.
- The Age of Pioneers – The new nation bursts onto the scene, seemly out of nowhere.
- The Age of Conquests – The nation aggressively attacks neighbors and expands territory.
- The Age of Commerce – The controlled territories begin to establish trade routes.
- The Age of Affluence – The growing trade brings the nation great wealth and influence.
- The Age of Intellect – Focus is shifted away from military conquest to academics and technology.
- The Age of Decadence – Luxury, philanthropy, and entertainment create a soft, weak society.
While each one of these ages is worth exploring, the last stage– decadence– is most important, as that is the stage American is in currently.
The Stage of Decadence
Marked By
The Stage of Decadence is marked by:
- Defensiveness
- Pessimism
- Materialism
- Frivolity
- An influx of foreigners
- The welfare state
- A weakening of religion
Due To
The Stage of Decadence is due to:
- Too long a period of wealth and power
- Selfishness
- Love of money
- The loss of a sense of duty
When Will America Begin Self-Destructing
I think we can all agree that America today suffers from all of the symptoms of Decadence and is poised to follow in the footsteps of the 11 great Super Powers that came before her by self-destructing through internal turmoil and conflict as the next super power readies to take its place. So, when will it happen?
Overlap Four Generational Turnings with Glubb’s Empire Life Cycle
To help answer this question of when it might happen, we will overlap the four generational turnings with Glubb’s Empire Life Cycle to see if they can agree on a date that will help predict the next and last crisis.
The bar chart on the left side of the graph shows Glubb’s six phases of an empire. Although the dates aren’t hard starts and stops, like represented in the gray bars, it does seem like America’s progress as a world power has followed the 11 before it.
Each of the 10 circles represent a generation, roughly 25 years. The letter in each circle designates what phase of the four turnings that generation is in: “C” for Crisis, “H” for High, “A” for Awakening, and “U” for Unraveling. The only anomaly is the generation between 1850 and 1875 where the Civil War arrived 4-5 years ahead of time and its conclusion nearly a generation early.
Lost Generation
Without this lost generation, we could have added another 25 years to America’s lifespan, which would put it at the upper end of the longest reigning super powers. This would have been expected, as advances in medicine and healthcare have extended lifespans and modern families are delaying having kids longer than previous generations. However, with the loss of the Civil War years, we have sped up the timetable on the last crisis event bringing us in line with previous empires.
Results of Our Two Patterns
Our two patterns point to a timeframe between 2021 and 2026 as the time in which we would most expect a spark to ignite the flames of war. Unlike the previous wars where America has risen from the ashes to become a stronger nation, this war will mark the end of America’s Empire, just like the 11 before it.
A Quick Note About Dates And Predictions Based On Historic Trends:
Patterns like the ones we’ve explored today do not “cause” future events to happen; they merely point out the similarities, helping us identify the causes. There is always internal conflict, but those sparks cannot catch fire unless certain environmental factors exist that support a flame. Namely, enough time must pass since the last major conflict for the current generation to no longer remember the pain and cost of the previous crisis.
Attitude Causes War
It is the attitude of the generation that causes war. That attitude is shaped by the events brought about by the previous generation and their attitude toward the events their parents’ generation caused.
Same Cycle in Bible
We see the same cycle of sin and judgment in the Bible, best shown through the book of Judges. Israel would sin by turning to idolatry (Unraveling). God would judge them through slavery (Crisis). They would cry out to Him for salvation, and He would send a Judge to rescue them from bondage (High). They would turn back to God (Awakening). Soon they would start to worship idols again (Unraveling).
This cycle happened for hundreds of years, with each phase or turning lasting just 20 years. Keeping in mind that in ancient Israel women began bearing children in their teens and life expectancy was much shorter than today, it makes sense that a generation lasted an average of 20 years as opposed to today’s 25 years, resulting in 100-year cycles instead of 80.
Spiritual State of Today’s Generation
It’s easy to judge the spiritual state of today’s generation where homosexual marriage is sanctioned by the state and celebrated by the media. Feminism has an iron grip on today’s youth. Over 60 million unborn children were aborted since Row v. Wade. Then there is the immorality and corruption of our elected representatives in Congress and local leadership.
The Next and Last American Crisis
When we combine the cycle of sin, with the four turnings and finally Glubb’s Fate of Empires timeline, I believe we have a strong case for why 2021–2026 will contain a spark that ignites the next and last American Crisis.
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@ Strong data point: You are cherry picking here. America was not a superpower in 1776. I question if it is even possible to pin point a specific year that America became a “superpower”.
Would becoming a superpower be dependent on several factors over many years? I would think that America became a superpower when we harnessed nuclear technology, in addition to the world reserve currency, among several other things. All of this happened well after 1776. I am not sure the math you are using is valid.
Another point that I question is that your sources are using linear timelines in effort to make sense of certain things. It is widely established that the post-modern era is defined by what is called “the great acceleration” in which all aspects of society become defined and influenced by exponential growth. This leads to a phenomena called “time/space compression” which kind of messes up the whole linear timeline that your sources are using.
Hi MuddyKid,
If you read Glubbs Fate of Empires he doesn’t begin dating an empire based on the date they become a superpower, but he looks at the total duration of the rise and fall once a superpower is established.
He says, “The dates given are largely arbitrary. Empires do not usually begin or end on a certain date. There is normally a gradual period of expansion and then a period of decline.” which means that there is some give on the exact dates he used to mark the beginning and end, but even as rough estimates all 11 empires fall between 208 to 267 years with the majority falling between 230-250 years. So even if the exact dates of the birth and fall are off a bit, we’re safe to say that the 230-250 year timeframe is accurate.
The birth of America was 1776. It doesn’t mean that America was a superpower in 1776, but that was the year the nation was formed, thus marks the start of the 230-250 year clock.
Regarding time/space compression, Glubb notes, “Immense changes in the technology of transport or in methods of warfare do not seem to affect the life-expectation of an empire.
The changes in the technology of transport and of war have, however, affected the shape of empires. The Assyrians, marching on foot, could only conquer their neighbors, who were accessible by land—the Medes, the Babylonians, the Persians and the Egyptians.The British, making use of ocean-going ships, conquered many countries and sub- continents, which were accessible to them by water—North America, India, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand—but they never succeeded in conquering their neighbours, France, Germany and Spain. But, although the shapes of the Assyrian and the British Empires were entirely different, both lasted about the same length of time.”
While technology changes, human nature does not. We still react major crisis events the same way other humans did many generations ago. The lifespan of generations has increased slightly, but 100 year cycles of awakenings and crisis look to consistent throughout the past 500 years.
In other words, I don’t think it messes up the timeline much. I appreciate your input and ideas though.
Vey, thanks for the kind reply.
Overall, what Glubb is talking about is classical geopolitics which was introduced as a political framework in 1899. Classical geopolitics as a framework became popular as a result of Nazi Germany’s “geopolitik”. Following WWII, classical geopolitics declined until Henry Kissinger began using the framework during the Cold War. To enhance your understanding of Glubb, consider checking out any geopolitics literature that has been written in the last twenty years.
Robert D. Kaplan’s 2011 book “The Revenge of Geography” provides a good overview of geopolitics. Based on his assessments, we should look to our southern border area for the spark that sets off the next domestic armed conflict.
Kaplan is not a geographer so his work is basically a perspective on geography by someone not specialized in geography.
Also, Kaplan became popular because of Bill Clinton having a photo taken while holding one of Kaplan’s books. Kaplan is widely cited and popular in military circles, but in geography, his work is discredited.
The ‘Life Stages” of nations does not begin when the nation is a superpower. But begins at the nation’s formation and then progresses (regresses?) through the various stages.
The life stages begin their decline when the citizens elect politicians who have figured out that they can buy votes by handing out free stuff. Once the tax levels and spending on free stuff impinges on providing for security the spiral is irreversible.
100% agree!
America didn’t officially become a superpower until after WWII.
“None are so blind, as those that have eyes and cannot see.”
You missed the War of 1812
You missed a war. War of 1812 was fought on American soil. The Brits burnt down DC and the government fled to Philadelphia. Also , the Civil war wasn’t “Abolitionists vs. State Sovereignty” until 1863. The North was having trouble getting people interested enough to fight anymore so Lincoln swung everybody’s attention to slavery to create a more “noble cause”. Individual States lost a lot of rights due to that war, That’s when the Feds started to amass power.
There has only been one civil war on our shores. And it wasn’t in the 1860s. It was in the 1770s. The british subjects in the 1770s were fighting tyranny within their country. A civil war is defined as a country battling within itself. The war in the 1860s was a war where the United States of America invaded the sovereign country of the Confederate States of America, and the Confederate States of America defended itself.
A civil war is a war between citizens of the same country. The union considered the southern states a rebellion, the southern states considered themselves a country.
I think there’s a debate to be had about the terminology, BUT that really has little to do with the actual point of the article.
So many similarities to ignore ! Grabs my attention and is making me think as to where I am in preparation for what will likely come.
Excellent article! Good analysis. I’ve read both of your source documents and couldn’t agree more. You bring up some points I hadn’t considered, like the lost generation. Also, I’ve always used 1781 and not 1776 as the start of the American Empire, but this is trivial. This is also one reason I’m a prepper and not an activist. I believe these events cannot be stopped. These things must come to pass. Sir John Glubb even put forth the idea that they are ordained. I’m sure the good citizens in Spain, Rome, Great Britain and others saw this coming too and were also swept up in events. I’m sure the next generation, with God’s help, will right this ship. The question is, who is the next empire? So far no one has done it twice.
It is hard to tell what the next empire will be. I guess part of it depends on how close we are to the end times.
Revelation 17:9 “Here is the mind with wisdom: The seven heads are seven mountains on which the woman is seated. 10 They are also seven kings: Five have fallen, one is, the other has not yet come, and when he comes, he must remain for a little while. 11 The beast that was and is not, is himself an eighth king, yet he belongs to the seven and is going to destruction.”
So it seems that the eighth king will be a resurgence of the seventh previous. I take this to mean that his empire will cover roughly the same regions as previous 7 middle eastern empires, but under a new name.
Agreed! Light waves go into our eye, sound waves come out of our mouth & into our ears. We cannot see any of them but they affect us profoundly. Those vibrating/ oscillating waves are actually spherical at the same time. This world is vibrant with life and cyclic to death. Mankind, societies and nations are all susceptible to this cycle, as pointed out in your great article. Whether or not the cycles are seen does not discount their existence.
Is division a bad thing? It isn’t allowed in tyrannical regimes. The continuous rip & repair throughout our history has built the most envious state in the world today. What confronts us today is the attack on the principles that makes us unique and which have always been opposed by tyranny. If there was no stand on those principles division would be eliminated.
Mark 3:24 says, “If a kingdom is divided against itself, it cannot stand.”
Yes, small rips and repairs are generally a good thing. And yes, it has helped form the most envious state in the world.
The thing is, rips and broken bones can be a helpful tool when one is young, but it could be devastating for an elderly person.
As a young nation facing a major crisis, we always came out stronger and more determined to never repeat the mistakes of the past.
As an old nation, soft and weak from decadence, we won’t be recovering so quickly from our deep internal wounds. This leaves an opening to a new nation to pounce on our weaknesses and deal a devastating blow.
I liked the article. I like to think of these things from the Biblical timeline. The end of mans 6000 years and the millennial reign, and where we are in that timeline. Thanks for the article and look to the heavens for your salvation draweth nigh.
My hope is that I will live long enough to help guide my family through the rough times that are coming. This newer generation is so fixated on their electronics that they can not function without them. They can not understand that I do not pick up my phone every time it dings… I use it as a too, not a lifeline. Easiest way to disrupt the modern world is to have an EMP. Then at least half of our population will be totally helpless.
Half… The EMP Commission estimates that an EMP that takes down our grid will lead to the death of 90% of Americans within 1 year.
What’s amazing to me is that we haven’t had an EMP strike yet. It’s one of those that can happen any time from just about any actor.
Are you the real Harry Seldon?
No. Harry is my great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandson.
It is so nice to read an historical article that has not been altered by some group’s ideology. I studied all types of history in high school and college and remember reading the books you cited. While I have no set thoughts on the dates laid out, the cycles are accepted by most scholars and by the scriptures. If you are a Believer than you realize where we are; we just don’t know the exact dates.
So true. We don’t know exact dates, we can only pay attention to the signs and seasons to let us know when these big events are close to taking place.
So many believers will be caught completely unaware. It’ll come upon them like a thief in the night. Now is the time to prepare and get ready.
The real cruncher for all those not in the US is, WHEN the next event of major change occurs, it will take down ALL those nations tied to the US financial strings i.e .: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, England, Germany, Italy, and so on, the supra event like this has not occurred in human history before, thanks to the electronic era the world is in, that is the difference. My sense is that the population of planet Earth will plummet drastically, one rueful thought, which group will I or you be in?
Our next ‘Seldon Crisis’ will be when the debt based financial system collapses completely, almost certainly within the next five years. The only solution will be a return to value-backed currency, whether it is precious metals or land, or something else that has intrinsic value, like food, or physical labor. All paper assets will be worth less due to hyperinflation, or worth nothing at all, like an IOU from a penniless gambling addict after a long run of bad luck. Martial law will probably be imposed in the cities and to a lesser degree in rural areas. The banksters will be dealt with and society will right itself after much chaos. It will be similar to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Very scary.
It is amazing our financial system has lasted this long, but assuming that the USD can just collapse and right itself perhaps underestimates the USDs role as a global reserve currency.
If the USD suddenly collapses, every major currency will collapse as well. Tangible goods will be once again seen as “real wealth” and nations will go to war over resources. There will most certainly be another World War which will drastically reshape the order of the world.
Quite true, Vey, but war will probably not come before the financial crash. And by the way, it is Hari.
Agreed.
I think with the strong economy these past few years the future looks pretty stable. However, if a recession takes hold, followed by another great depression the future will look dark indeed for today’s youth. They will demand major changes and violence will again lead to war.
Only question whether other major events (EMP, Cyber attack, terrorist attack) will hold off until then.
not automatically, the days of the USD as the only global eserve currency are coming to an end, if not having ended already.
The Renimbi and the Euro are also growing in the Position of an GRC or having already done so.
The 28 years of wars of aggression in the Middle East are all I need to realize that this once-great once-God-fearing nation has lost its soul.
I am a big fan of The Fourth Turning. I have not read your other sources.
This is a discussion with Neil Howe from 2017 on how this period is progressing.
https://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/june-5-2017-neil-howe-8-years-fourth-turning/
He makes few hard fast predictions.
I for one will attempt to prepare for succesful retirement and collapse. Perhaps a fools errand but I see no other option.
In that vane I see physical fitness and health as a clear goal. If I am lucky enough to retire in peace, I want to be able to enjoy it. If I have to work into my 70’s or even 80s (a very possible scenario IMO) I want to be able to. If I have to fight I want to be able to do that as well.
We will see what the future brings.
I would like to have seen examples of your 4 stages in America’s history from 1776 thru 1945, instead of just 1945-2019.
Hi Nurse Kim,
Follow the very first link in the article to Amazon and pickup a copy of the 4th Turning. They have detailed chapters for each stage and they use specific examples of how each stage played out in America’s history.
They even go several layers deeper into the psychological state and arch-types for each generation. It’s a little wordy at times, but it does help give a deeper understanding as to why each generation responds the way they do, and how those generational differences shape the country as each generation assumes leadership positions when their time comes.
Previously I’ve expressed the idea that “Civil War”, in the sense of a shooting war between citizens of the same country was unlikely. Unlikely but not impossible.
I’ve based this on the idea that wealth redistribution is so deeply rooted in a majority of the population (social security, welfare, gov. pensions), few are going to want to rock the boat, even as it slowly sinks. Everyone wants stability so that the free paychecks keep coming. The financial elite wants you to keep paying your mortgage and credit card payments.
However, there is one disturbing trend I could see leading to people being so pissed off, they want to shoot somebody. The new congress has brought in a bunch of hotheads who are determined to give Trump a “fair” trial and then hang him (please take this in the sarcastic sense it was intended). This was best expressed by the bi-sexual, green party, socialist Madonna-wannabe Senator in Arizona and the muslim woman who said she was going to “impeach the motherf*cker.”
Many people see a coup by the Left to remove Trump coming. There is a coordinated attack by Deep State lawyers, the Media, the Leftist Intelligensia, Obama judges, the open Socialists in Congress, and possibly the Liberal investor class and financial industry to take him out. Combine this with calls for more gun control, 70% tax rates, and other out-of-control Leftist insanity and you have a sh*t storm gathering on the horizon.
If they accomplish this, I could see a massive uprising on the “right” that will make Antifa wish it had never put on a black face mask. As of yet, Antifa violence and Code Pink disruptions have been confined to basket case cities like Berkeley and Portland and New York. I could easily see armed Bundy-like protests erupting in the “fly-over” states where the “deplorables” live. If it starts, I could see a chain reaction of protests happening. Where the violence could lead is anyone’s guess. But there is a lot of pent up anger out there, not just on the Left.
I believe for better or worse, there are a lot of quiet, angry people ready to settle scores.
This is just an aside comment: I went to Florence, AL today to pick up several items, one being a simple plastic ammo storage box at Dick’s/Field & Stream. They had to have my birthdate in order for me to buy it!!.
Stay clear of Dicks.
Dick’s is aptly named.
This is exactly right.
What’s creates an environment ripe for civil conflict is when the generation coming into power sees no future left for them. This is when they become desperate and demand major changes, even war.
If today’s youth think that climate change, gun related violence, strong immigration laws or insurmountable debt is going to jeopardize their future they will rise up and revolt against whoever they determine is in power.
This is why it’s called the “unraveling”. The outlook is so pessimistic that the generation coming into power no longer fears rocking the boat because they have nothing to lose.
We see this on display in this year’s class of new congressmen. They want to burn down the Trump administration at all costs because to them, his agenda is destroying their future.
Of course they have no idea that this story has been told before. The only question is whether America as an empire can survive another major civil war, or whether that will weaken it to the point where it’s influence and power globally is beyond repair, ripe for a new nation to step in.
In carrying on my long-ago Special Forces US Army Training, I continue to prepare, even to the point of pissing my wife off. She appreciates the fact that we are well prepared. In the SF, we practiced operations over and over again, changing this & that each time, changing the responses, and changing the equipment. I’m having fun while doing it. I don’t want to have to do it in real life, but I can. We can.
I have friends who hope this does happen. They are tired of today’s self-serving government and the liberal agenda. We live in various places, from remote mountain outlets to heavily populated cities.
I encourage everyone to prepare, to pray for peace and harmony, but to not to cower to the liberals or politicians.
A daily prayer:
Dear Lord,
THANK YOU for giving me the strength and conviction to complete the tasks entrusted to me.
THANK YOU for guiding me, straight and true, through many obstacles in my path. And for keeping me resolute when all around me seemed wrong.
THANK YOU for your protection and for your many signs along the way.
THANK YOU for any good I may have done. I’m so sorry about the bad.
THANK YOU for the friend I have made. Please watch over her as you have watched over me.
THANK YOU for finally allowing me to rest, I’m so very tired.
If I go now to my rest, it’s in peace, knowing that I’ve done right in my time on this earth. I fought a good fight, I finished the race. I kept the faith.
Amen.
So if one accepts the validity of The Fourth Turning (which I’m inclined to, we Americans have 1-7 years to prepare for a very major crisis, that will include financial & political upheaval like few of us have ever seen or experienced. Only those elderly who experienced the Great Depression & WW II have seen anything similar.
While my spouse & I have made some preparations, we are clearly not ready for a major turning as described. I find this to be very unsettling. & I believe that my spouse & I are going to have some deep discussions about the implications of this.
I also want to encourage other SurvivalBlog readers to send a financial gift (Jim Rawles’ post on Jan. 2 requested $36 (10 cents a day for a year) payable by PayPal, cash, checks, Bitcoin, booklets of U.S. postage stamps, and even mailing a few silver dimes.
https://survivalblog.com/important-note-survivalblog-2019/
Had a hard time getting past the first sentence
Does 1812 ring a bell?
Not really.
I mean, the war of 1812 had some significant milestones with being the first war declared by America and the burning of the White House, but it really in terms of causalities and outcomes it was quite minor.
Yes, the first sentence should be reworded to be more accurate, but don’t let that minor oversight distract from the main thrust of the article.
I do appreciate you bringing up the point. It is important to be accurate even in the minor details when writing about history. If you have any comments on the ideas after the first sentence, I would love to hear your thoughts.
Glubbs Fate of Empires evidently overlooked the Eastern Roman Empire/Byzantine Empire, which existed for over 1200 years without any interruption even when the Western Roman empire fell, which was about 250+ years after the date given of 180 AD. Rome fell in 453 AD. Yes, the date is debatable but not by 250+ years. The Eastern Roman empire/Byzantine empire usually is overlooked, as it is definitely the outlier no one wants to deal with because of its existence both under Rome and as a separate empire.
Dates for the Ottoman empire tend to usually be 1300 to 1918, not 1570.
Dang, and here I thought I had enough ammo. I’m not one for rushing to believe everything written in articles. But this has given me pause. It’ll give me something to look further into. Thanks.
If you’re thinking about stocking up on more ammo, now is the time. With all the gun control insane bills being introduced to congress this session you can bet that the panic buying will be starting up soon.
I’m glad to hear that the article was thought provoking for you. These two topics of generational cycles and empire lifespans are things I’ve been thinking and reading about for a while now, but it wasn’t until Jim Rawles article on January 1st ( https://survivalblog.com/coming-second-civil-war/ ) that I decided to lay everything out on the timeline. I think it’s really eye opening when you see the patterns overlaid visually.
Best wishes in your preparations, Harry.
vey,
Very good article. I arrived at the same time frame of around 2021 THEOTWAWKI by studying prophetic scripture long ago.
I also encourage everyone who reads this blog to contribute $36.00 to Jim Rawles his address is on the Jan 2 page.
Thanks Oly,
I would love to hear your thoughts on your 2021 prophetic study. I’m a big fan of prophecy and end times writing.
Thanks for taking the time to leave a comment, and glad you reminded readers how important it is to support Jim and SurvivalBlog.
This is a great article, thank you Vey. I keep hearing about the Fourth Turning. This really helps to simplify it.
Here’s a different perspective on The Fourth Turning book that was published Dec 31 & the Jan 3 survivalblog had a link to – https://www.theburningplatform.com/2018/12/31/2019-from-a-fourth-turning-perspective/
Have read both treatises, but find the Clash of Civilizations provides the better rational for the friction points and conflict in modern civilization (https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/political-science/media/clash.pdf) that will be the trigger points or fractures for a global event.
Although there is internal conflict in our country, the differences are not nearly as great as overstated in the media (the WSJ had a very good, factual research that demonstrated the same, and will find the link and share).
Our problem is simply the social media (enabling the gross expressions of self indulgence and narcissistic behavior) and the hijacking of our freedom of speech – a few voices seem to dominate the message and the echo chamber is so pervasive that few can escape the hysteria. These same forces are shaping the same countries that have been clashing for thousands of years.
The Clash of Civilizations was written 20 years after the fictional events of Alas Babylon, and the same flash points exist today (and have been the same for the last 2,000 years). What were wars of sticks, stones and swords, are now being waged with super weapons provided to those most ignorant of their capabilities – it’s only time that a conflict escalates from a gross misjudgment of events or an accident (human error) that will or could cascade from a regional conflict to one that pits the super powers against each other.
I am more worried about these possible events rather an internal insurrection (easily in my lifetime, we’ve survived a president’s resignation, an impeachment, an assassination, a terrorist attack, and the last POTUS) that fractures our country. However, when there’s a external conflict or aggression by one of these bad actors, we’ll find common ground to defend our freedom and sovereignty – we will prevail.
Our fear should be the events were we and country are unprepared, and it will be our families and communities that will become the grassroots and the resilience to sustain the country. Or worse yet we lose the will and faith to prosper over whatever calamity we may face, and turn our backs against the fundamentals woven throughout the Scriptures that provides the light at the darkest hours.
Re-read Strauss and Howe, they specifically state cleanly defined time periods of 100 years do not work. “Saeculum”, latin for “a long human life” was the concept they used, and was deliberately ‘fuzzy’, as history doesn’t neatly compartmentalize itself to make the math easier.
That being said, I do whol-heartedly agree with the conclusion. The schumer is nearing the oscillator. If you don’t think DJT=Grey Champion, you didn’t read the book! My only hope is that society sides with the old order and we can prosper for at least another Saeculum. Social issues aside, the future I can forsee with the alternative is anything but prosperous.
Hi K,
Thanks for your comment.
I hope readers didn’t come away from my article thinking that every generation is EXACTLY 25 years or that every empire lasts EXACTLY 250 years.
The length of a generation is hard to define because cultural factors such as the average age women are getting married and having children plus external factors like WWII ending all affect the timing. That said, I think that 25 years is a good average in this day and age.
What really matters, as far as my analysis goes, is how well the generational cycles lines up with past crisis and awakenings and also how well the current generations mood matches the predicted turning.
I’m convinced that we are currently in the unraveling turning and I can feel the mood of the nation changing toward the crisis event. I also think we perfectly match Glubb’s last phase of an empire, decadence.
When I put these two pieces together I think a 2021-2026 range is a good bet. Could a crisis happen sooner or later? Sure! But given the current political environment, I think we’re getting close.
Some good triggers considered in this article but a few were missed – (lessons learned as a pilot) kinda like a plane crash, usually not one event that precipitates the crash but a combination of events driven by the response of the pilots (thereby attributable to pilot error), further exacerbated by the failure to have adequate altitude, speed, fuel, time to act, and/or a single point of failure in systems that have no redundancy.
What’s missing is the the total leverage in the system (the debt crisis for whom others are much more knowledgeable and qualified to speak to this topic) and the cascading events of defaults (saw this in the last crisis).
Then consider the aging of the boomers – tens and hundreds of thousands are moving into retirement each month with assets that will only sustain them for maybe 2-6 years, and when they run out of money the wealth and poverty fissures will create immense social and economic consequences (in the past we referred to this as the generation gap, but this will be fundamentally different as the next generation will not rise to the same level of prosperity as the previous). Imagine all of these people having to return to the low wage work force, defaulting on their loans (home, auto and credit card or there medical care), or moving in with their middle age children. Worse yet, the middle America has been already hollowed out and these boomers parents may have no safety net.
Then there’s the political divide, nothing more needed on this topic, and the grid lock or destructive distractions over nothing as the fires rage in middle America (look no further than France, UK and perhaps the EU in the end to see these events unfolding) as the “tax and spent and social justice warriors”, and the fanciful glow of socialism in our urban and big cities warms the heart and souls of the electorate.
Conflict and terror – terrorist that use other means beyond guns, bullets, knives, cars, airplanes, and profess Allah Akbar in doing so. Are we ready for chemical, biological and localized dirty bombs and weapons – only a matter of time and the accumulation of expertise before these become viable tools of localized terror.
More frightening is the small state sponsored events that may be more insidious and difficult to attribute to the attack. Imagine a data breach of a major bank (or several banks, not just in America but in the developed world) where account balances get drained or moved (even if they can be restored, the damage has been done, and a new form of “bank runs” will emerge if the confidence in the electronic security takes hold.
Ask yourself how much of your wealth are the “bits and bytes” on some computer hosted your bank and broker – when the information is gone or so disrupted, even for a few hours or worse yet a few days, the crisis and subsequent scares will be deep and difficult to heal.
Now all of the data breach issues would be bad, but nothing like a small scale event where the electrical grid disruptions (impacting the internet and everything powered by our fossil and green energy) cascade beyond the nadir and spread like a crack in a windshield – in some cases the cracks maybe superficial (think state sponsored data breach of the Marriott – Starwood customer data) but if the impact is sufficient, the glass will be shattered and scattered everywhere, and replacing the damage will be painful and difficult.
Now imagine a much more insidious event, the power goes out for not just a few hours, but for several days – most cars, refrigerators, places of business, and home pantries are not stocked for more than a few days of consumption. What does this disruption look like in any one of America’s largest cities – the chaos, looting and criminal elements will seep out of the darkness and only perpetuate what the terrorist want from their actions – the internal combustion of the American Dream, economic stability and prosperity, and shake our faith in humanity.
If you don’t think this scenario is not possible, then look no further than the messages and recommendations from our own government (federal, state and local, and more recently the private sectors) – perhaps 3 days of provisions from a natural event (persuaded under the guise of an earthquake, tornado, flood, snow storm or hurricane) are not sufficient, and maybe 14 days is what’s needed because the government may not be able to immediately help you. Bluntly, The United States is not prepared for a catastrophic power outage, according to an new (but regurgitated) report from the National Infrastructure Advisory Council (NIAC). The NIAC is not the only group that has recently issued a report that contains dire warnings for the US. Just two weeks ago, the U.S. Air Force Electromagnetic Defense Task Force (EDTF) published a report that claims “electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and other electromagnetic threats pose an unprecedented threat to U.S. military power and national survival.” “Based on the totality of available data,” said the report from the Air Force’s Air University, “an electromagnetic spectrum attack may be a threat to the United States, democracy, and the world order.”
Here’s what was subtle and not headlined that will be points of fracture:
1. Anti-billionaire sentiment grows (US and globally)
2. Italexit – Italy leaving the EU (rather they getting ejected)
3. China implodes – the divide in China is immense and seldom discussed and carefully controlled
4. Student debt crisis – the financial repercussions are bad but the psychological impacts and stigma will persist for a generation, and the students and parents will see that only the liberal professors and institutions were the benefactors of this largess
5. End of easy money
6. The probing cyber attacks are the preamble to a much more insidious event that will shake the confidence of our financial and banking systems (including cyber currencies)
Hi J. Taylor,
Thanks for leaving that excellent comment.
I am really glad that Survival Blog enabled comments, because your post added quite a bit of great context to the conversation.
As you pointed out, there are a lot of serious concerns. Any one or a combination of several could be the crisis event we’re all expecting.
I wanted to let the focus of the article stay on the historical patterns and timing of the next crisis, but I’m very glad you expanded the conversation to give readers another layer of information to consider.
Did you mean England and America?
I “missed” such things as the “30” Years war, the going down of the Bycantean Empire, the Napoleonic wars – French revolution…
What is with the fare of the asian Empires of china, india and the mongols?
The russian(of the tsar) empire was a welfare state?
Hi ThoDan,
Mac, right below this comment, had a very similar question. I saw his first, and responding to that one, so rather than repeat myself I’ll just direct you to my comment there.
Do take a few minutes and read the Fate of Empires. It’s a free PDF, just do a quick Google search. It’s like 25 pages, so a pretty quick read. He explains why the scope of his research was limited to the 11 empires he focused on.
I appreciate your comment, as I’m sure others had the same question as you and Mac. I wish I would have addressed it preemptively in my essay, but for now the comment section will have to do 🙂
Fair enough and trying to stay in his own expertise is a reasonable thing to do.
I’m curious as to why the Mongol Empire didn’t make the list of greatest Empires?
Hi Mac,
Glubb focuses on all the empires that have ruled Europe and the Middle East since history was recorded He did this because that scope alone was massive and it was beyond his expertise to translate and understand the culture of the other regions.
He mentions in his essay that he wishes an institute could be setup to study the history of all the world empires, but I’m not aware that anybody has done that yet. Would be really interesting to see that body of work.
Vey,
Just read your comment on mine. I am digging through archives of mine I did this Bible Scripture study around 15 years ago, hopefully I’ll find it. Basically it started with Jesus statement recorded in Matthew 24:34. The word ” generation” in Greek is ” genea”: a generation; by implication an age ( the period or persons ): age, generation, nation, time. Presumably a derivative of the Greek genos “kin”.
Jesus would have spoken Aramaic (the Syriac Peshitta uses “sharb ta” which can mean either “generation ” or “race”) which is susceptible to either interpretation, and could mean Jewish race or equally a generation. Interestingly the Jewish race has survived persecution, and being driven from one country to another and the races of most peoples have died out essentially that were contemporaneous with Jesus of Nazareth. I am aware of many debates regarding my next statement but. I think it vital that the Jews getting their land back and in control of Jerusalem is crucial to the time aspect of the prophecy of the Return of Jesus. I have just learned also recently that the the Temple location is not where they originally thought but outside the present walls of the Temple Mount. But in in the Valley of Gihon at the Pool of Gihon. Plans are secretly in place to reconstruct the Temple. I am digging for my notes hopefully I can find them to flesh this out much more. I have moved since from the border of Mexico on the Rio Grande river and things are packed. Regards and your article was very very good!
Hi oly,
Thank you for sharing those thoughts, and for the kind words about my article.
You and I would be good friends I think 🙂
Matthew 24 is my favorite chapter in the Bible and The Original Aramaic New Testament in Plain English 8th edition is my favorite translation.
I also believe that Israel will need to rebuild the template in order for the 70 weeks of Daniel to be fulfilled.
I’ve never heard of the idea of “race” being an acceptable interpretation. Generation is a much harder one to explain giving the plain reading of the verse.
I do agree that the Jewish people are ready to construct the template very quickly given the opportunity.
I’ve always interpreted the “generation” statement to refer to the generation that was currently alive when the Anti-Christ declares himself “Ena Na”.
Would very much like to hear about the 2021 timeframe if you’re able to find your notes.
Vey,
I failed to mention that I and many feel that the “timing” of the “generation” is the generation of Jews that are alive when they take back the land of Israel and rebuild the Temple, because it will be necessary for the “Abomination” to claim he is god and sit in the temple. Basically a generation is somewhere in the rough area of 70 years depending on who is debating the point. This is just skimming the surface of the study.