A Red State Manifesto: Two Americas in 2025 – Part 1, by Jonathan Rawles

The Landscape

In 2025, the divide between red states and blue states has not gone away, but only become more distinct. The decisive results of the 2024 election saw all the swing states shift significantly toward the Republican candidate, and even typically “purple” metros like Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Houston voted for Trump. This victory has further cemented the idea of Red America as a distinct entity, directly opposed to what is happening in Blue America. It’s a clear cultural and political divide cutting across the country.

The electoral map makes this abundantly clear: The core of America is firmly conservative, while the Pacific and north and central Atlantic coasts (along with Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Illinois) are still dominated by the progressive agenda.

Over the past decades, this divide has become more and more pronounced. Numerous commentators and analysts have pointed out the growing divide. Bill Bishop first brought it to national attention with his 2008 book *The Big Sort*, and it’s been an ongoing topic of discussion with every election since.

However, the overwhelming support for Trump’s second term slightly muted the divide in this election. In 2024, every single state and 90% of all counties had a more Republican vote, and Democratic margins were narrower in every state. While this did not erase or reverse the divide overall, it does paint a hopeful picture of future gains for conservatives.

The Blue States

Over the past decades, the blue states have been on a definite leftward and downward trajectory. This came to a head with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and response, as well as the widespread unrest of the 2020 riots. For many conservative residents, this was a tipping point that revealed the brokenness of blue state society and governance. While some aspects of this agenda have been and will be blunted by the changing national atmosphere, the underlying current is unlikely to change.

The blue states have been hotbeds of the most pernicious political and cultural forces at work in the country.

Anarchotyranny

The most dramatic examples of the problems we are facing have been evident in the widespread use of state power against dissent and opposition while allowing and even protecting left-wing violence. This has been overt in the wake of Antifa riots, or subtle in the toleration of property crime, violence, public drug use, and the like. Meanwhile, as in the Daniel Penny case, anyone who acts as a good samaritan may be subject to prosecution.

Illegal Immigration

The issue of illegal immigration is particularly clear. In violation of Article IV of the United States Constitution, the Federal government has not only refused to defend the states against foreign invasion but has aided and abetted such invasion. Further, it has given it the color of law through indiscriminate grants of “refugee” status and other legal protections to the invaders. State, county, and city governments have joined in by obstructing the enforcement of immigration law and providing state benefits and welfare to illegal aliens.

Second Amendment Issues

While there have been significant wins for the 2nd Amendment in recent decades, as exemplified by the Heller decision, blue states are becoming increasingly restrictive of gun rights. A growing split exists. We’re seeing advances for the Second Amendment in many states, with significant victories in constitutional carry and self-defense laws. In contrast, blue states continue to pass new gun and magazine bans and registration schemes. As a notable example, Washington State passed a new “assault weapons” ban in 2023 and added further restrictions to transfers in 2024.

With most of these restrictions happening at the state level, it’s unlikely that the new administration will offer much direct relief. There is hope that the Supreme Court will continue with rulings that continue to advance firearms freedom, but it can be expected to be met with new regulations from blue states.

Parents’ Rights

The erosion of parental rights over the past years has been one of the most egregious offenses of the progressive regime. Under the Trump administration, we can hope that the federal support and funding for these offenses will be cut off. It’s possible that the Republican congress will take action to assure informed parental consent or entirely ban harmful “affirming” treatments for minors.

While the Biden regime has advanced this tendency, it’s been carried out at the state and local level. The new administration will have little prospect of rooting these ideologies out of state and local government, healthcare, and educational institutions.

Judicial Abuse

Many blue states and cities have enacted legislation creating a distinct class of hate crimes. These ordinances allow prosecutors to pursue aggressive charges and punishments against minor offenses. These ordinances make political speech, protest, or even self-defense dangerous to conservatives. In an adverse legal environment, politically favored individuals can act with impunity, while resistance or opposition from marginalized groups can be legally punished.

The adverse legal environment and abuse of the justice system are expected to persist in blue states. Appointments of new federal judges may help mitigate this, but the new administration will have little immediate impact.

Quality of Life

The total effect of these misguided or pernicious policies has been a significant decline in the quality of life in blue states, especially in blue state cities. While they have long touted their high GDP numbers, economic potential, and cultural and lifestyle amenities, the ongoing social and economic degradation undercuts these benefits. Many, especially parents and grandparents, are coming to see that merely accepting the decline is not worth it.

Urban/Suburban-Rural Divides and Red Metros

The Red State-Blue State divide is not the only critical factor in the national landscape. The political divide cuts not only along state lines, but county lines.

Ultimately, the blue states went to Harris only based on a small proportion of big city counties, while the many outlying counties remained conservative. This is most apparent in California, Oregon, Washington, and New York. The county-by-county map of each state is a microcosm of the national map. Coastal counties and major cities vote blue, but the rest of the state has a conservative majority. In the blue states, the vast population skew towards these blue counties and cities secured the state as a whole for Harris.

While red states also have these major blue cities, the population balance and balance of political power is better. In the red states, the blue cities typically either have smaller populations versus the entire state or are less stridently progressive. They still have a significant impact on state election results but don’t exercise the same domination as in the blue states.

While presidential election results are important, the practical effects of state governance are much more directly relevant to the citizens of those states. State governance will be the key factor in how these states respond to the 2025-2028 Trump administration. We’ll likely see the Democrat-controlled states opposing Federal reforms on several levels. This will likely be seen in these states doubling down on their “sanctuary” status, opposing or subverting federal efforts to stem the tide of immigration, crime, social unrest, and drug issues.

Accordingly, the optimal location is in a red or “purple” state, away from the most extremely liberal-leaning cities. Remember, most urban areas will skew liberal regardless, so it’s helpful to look at voting patterns at a county or metro area level. The typical pattern for a red metro is a liberal lean for the city center, while the suburbs and exurbs are solidly conservative.

With this in mind, I’ve cross-referenced county-level vote totals with census metro area designations to create a list of “red metros” in red states. This list gives the top three metros by population for each geographical census division and Donald Trump’s margin of victory in the 2024 election:

– Mountain States
– Phoenix, AZ (+5%)
– Boise, ID (+23%)
– Provo, UT (+41%)
– East South Central States
– Nashville, TN (+18%)
– Louisville, KY (+7%)
– Birmingham, AL (+20%)
– West South Central States
– Dallas-Fort Worth, TX (+6%)
– Houston, TX (+7%)
– San Antonio, TX (+5%)
– South Atlantic States
– Tampa, FL (+10%)
– Charlotte, NC (+1%)
– Jacksonville, FL (+18%)
– Middle Atlantic States
– Pittsburgh, PA (+5%)
– Allentown, PA (+5%)
– Harrisburg, PA (+6%)
– East North Central States
– Cincinnati, OH (+16%)
– Indianapolis, IN (+3%)
– Grand Rapids, MI (+8%)
– West North Central States
– Omaha, NE (+4%)
– Wichita, KS (+19%)
– Springfield, MO (+35%)

The full list of all 604 red state/red metros is available as a free PDF download at RedStateGuidebook.com/RedMetros.

The Trump Effect

We can all be tremendously grateful that the 2024 election results were so decisive. With a clear margin of victory in every state and the popular vote secured, support for concerted protests or opposition to the election results vanished. Combined with the social fatigue surrounding the Trump panic and a progressive movement that has overplayed itself, there was no gas left in the tank to create a national conflagration.

The newly inaugurated Trump administration appears to pose a direct challenge to the progressive system. Don’t expect any full reversal of the progressive agenda, but hopefully, it will be a meaningful reprieve or the start of a national turn away from liberalism. The initial push of executive action in the first days of his term is promising, but we should expect it to be a hard slog. Political battles bogged down the last Trump administration, and in 2025, Trump is likely to face similar challenges.

Don’t expect blue states to accept the changes a Trump administration accomplishes. As the Trump administration moves to halt and reverse illegal immigration, expect blue state governors to refuse to cooperate or even actively seek to thwart these efforts. Expect extreme measures of “malicious compliance” and institutional subversion as blue state governments and federal bureaucrats try to score political points against the Trump administration, even at great cost to Americans’ lives and livelihoods.

Meanwhile, red states can expect greater cooperation between conservatively aligned state and federal governance. Without the subversion of progressive state government, they will be well-situated to enjoy the benefits of national reforms.

Red States Rising

These political, economic, and cultural trends have combined to upset the national dominance of blue states. The liberal megalopolises have lost their shine. Between cultural decay and the rising cost of living, they no longer carry the same prestige or draw. Meanwhile, the stigma of “flyover country” is fading. Americans increasingly recognize these rising red states as bastions of common sense, intact culture and society, and increasing opportunity.

The states demonstrating the most dramatic growth over the past five years—both economically and in population—have been red states. Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee, Idaho, and many others are increasingly attracting business and population. The relocation of Tesla, Oracle, and numerous other major corporations to Texas, Florida, and other red states has been dramatic proof. Meanwhile, apart from wholesale relocations, many corporations are making major red state investments. Most recently, defense manufacturer Anduril announced a billion-dollar investment in new facilities in Ohio. This trend can only be expected to continue over the coming years.

This divide is even illustrated in birthrates. A recent report from the Institute for Family Studies showed the interrelationship between conservative political alignment and family formation. In their analysis, top 20% most conservative counties had a total fertility rate 28% higher than the top 20% most liberal counties. Played out nationally, this pattern will have significant effects over the coming decades of population decline.

Choose a Side

Like a choose-your-own-adventure book, you can choose which America you want to live in. If you’re in a blue state and in one of the communities that has resisted the trends and is thriving, this isn’t directed at you. But if you’re in a place characterized by decay and disintegration, there are other options. It’s sensible to look for a path towards restoration or to relocate yourself to an area where that is happening.

(To be continued tomorrow, in Part 2.)