Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, JWR opines about the technical defaults of China’s Evergrande and Kaisa. (See the Economy & Finance section.)
Precious Metals:
Silver is the only precious metal likely to achieve persistent deficit over 2021-22 – Metals Focus.
o o o
Christopher Aaron: Silver Price Forecast: A Major Low Is Close.
o o o
Reported on Tuesday: Gold, silver gain as crude oil continues big rebound.
Economy & Finance:
For many years, western journalists have warned about China’s empty “ghost” cities. From the 1990s to present, millions of tons of concrete have been poured, building massive ghost cities in what is perhaps the largest malinvestment in world history. A large portion of that office and residential space still stands empty.
Back on November 11th, the editors of the Investment Watch blog asked: So did Evergrande default or not? U.S. media claims it didn’t yet, yet the narrative for the rest of the world is the complete opposite. In the same time frame, China’s Kaisa Group also missed some payments.
JWR’s Comments: Anyone attempting to sort all of this out has been met with lots of contradictory statements. Perhaps the financial press and even the credit reporting agencies are in a state of denial, because they recognize that the world’s financial system is teetering on the edge of a precipice. At least Fitch had the intestinal fortitude to downgrade Kaisa from “CCC” to “C”.
If this had been some small hedge fund headquartered in Duluth, then the financial press would not have hesitated to use the word default. But when they are talking about the technical default of two of China’s largest property developers with hundreds of billions at stake, the business journalists get very close-mouthed. What is really going on? Methinks that there is the recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is in fact the lender of last resort for Evergrande, Kaisa, and their smaller competitors. If need be, they will crank up the Yuan printing press, rather than see a declaration of default. On December 6th, it was reported that Evergrande and Kaisa would be “restructuring”. So… When is a default not called a default? When it spells contagious doom for the global financial house of cards.
Update: I spotted this news, just last night: Evergrande has defaulted on its debt, Fitch Ratings says.
o o o
Biden Threatens to Cut Russia Off From SWIFT Payment ‘Aggression’ Against Ukraine.
o o o
Commodities:
At OilPrice News: Why Helium Could Be The Hottest Commodity Play Of 2022.
o o o
At Zero Hedge: European Gas Jumps As Biden Weighs Sanctions If Putin Invades Ukraine.
Forex & Cryptos:
15 Lowest Currency in the World in 2021.
o o o
Bitcoin dropped 30% in a month, here’s what’s next – Gareth Soloway updates gold, stocks, crypto.
o o o
Bitcoin Funding Rates Turn Negative In Sentiment Reset.
o o o
India to set maximum penalty for violating crypto norms at fine of $2.7 million or 1.5 years in jail.
Tangibles Investing:
Many libertarians are fond of citing Joe Huffman’s Jews In The Attic Test for legislation, namely: Will this law make it difficult or impossible to protect innocent life from a government intent on their imprisonment or death? That is a useful gauge of good government. I propose a similar test, that I’ve dubbed The Rawles Gun Show Test: Will this law or decree make it more difficult for me to walk into a gun show with cash and walk out with a battle rifle, a dozen magazines, and a case of ammunition — with no paper trail? This test can be applied to more than just laws restricting guns, ammunition, and gun accessories. For example, a law requiring the use of a sovereign e-currency with tracked transactions would have the same effect as a gun registration law. Ditto for the imposition of a new tax or increase in sales taxes. And of course ditto for so-called “Universal Background Checks.”
My advice is to invest in guns whenever they are inexpensive and sans papiers, and stack them deep. Your grandkids will that you for your foresight.
o o o
Tomorrow is the last day of the month-long Patton’s Birthday Sale at Elk Creek Company. With the recent drop in the spot price in sliver, I reduced our silver multiplier to 20.4 times face value. This makes it a very good time to pay with FRNs (Cash, PMO, or check.) Get your order in by 5 PM on Saturday, December 11, 2021.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!