Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on the recent Bitcoin bounce in trading value.

Precious Metals:

Egypt: Billionaire girds for stock-market crash by investing half his net worth in gold.

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Andrew Hecht: Silver – What A Difference A Week Makes

Stocks:

Market correction of 30-40% could be coming soon, investment guru Mark Mobius warns

Cryptos (Bitcoin Bounce):

The exchange value of Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have stabilized around $9,000 USD, since April 24th. As I’m writing this on Thursday evening (May 3, 2018), BTC is trading at $9,639 USD. The rally is encouraging, but don’t take the recent Bitcoin bounce to be any sign of a major turn in the market.  Many investors are still feeling the sting of Bitcoin’s fall from nearly $20,000 in December of 2017. They (and I) won’t be convinced that the bull market is returning until Bitcoin stabilizes above $9K for several more weeks. And even then, there is always the risk of the U.S. government dumping some of its stash of around 150,000 seized bitcoins (presently worth +/- $1.6 billion), at any time.

Economy & Finance:

Blog reader H.L. send a link to a fascinating map: This Map Shows Every State’s Biggest Export.  As you can see, the American Redoubt region has fairly low vulnerability to a trade war. (The quite high figure for “Airplanes” exports in Washington, is of course Boeing, which is in western Washington.) One oddity is that it shows $209 million worth of tobacco from Montana as its biggest export. But I believe that is spurious information, since Montana exports more than $1 billion worth of grain and oilseeds. Coal and copper oxides are also much more valuable exports than tobacco, for Montana. Oh, and by the way, the $593 Million worth of “Chips” shown for Idaho refers to microcircuits (from companies like Micron Technology) rather than potato chips!  And they are hiring!

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Vancouver [B.C.] gas prices are the highest in North America — and they may get worse

 

Derivatives:

Freddie Mac income rises on derivative gains, apartments growth

 

Tangibles Investing:

The rising price of gasoline, sent me down a rabbit trail of web searches, which landed me here: 35 Gallons of Gas for $1.36!??!?  Granted, there are some OPSEC issues when you use any sort of customer loyalty cards. (Also know as marketing database building/snooping cards.)

On a similar note: I expect natural gas and propane prices to rise substantially, starting in June or July. So it might be a good time to top off your propane tank(s). And you might as well also top off your gas and diesel storage tanks before the annual Memorial Day Weekend price jump.

Lastly, I’m predicting that as inflation re-emerges, some U.S based oil refining companies (such as Sunoco) will expand the use of Pre-Paid Gallons Gift Cards. Any refiner that also has a chain of gas stations could similarly sell pre-paid gift cards, denominated in gallons, instead of Dollars. With these, their customers will want to buy gift cards as a hedge on inflation and eventual higher gas prices. It would be a “win-win”. The other “win” would be for the company, since they’d get the cash up front, and would benefit from the float on all that cash.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. So please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often “get the scoop” on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!


12 Comments

  1. Stocks:
    Yeah, the S&P keeps bouncing at the 200 day SMA right along support during a series of lower highs. This is tricky for sure. A break to the downside would likely be significant.

    Cryptos:
    There’s good news and bad news. Goldman Sacks has now gotten into the trading of Bitcoin futures. Up until now they had only made a market in the futures contracts. This would indicate that one of the worlds largest Money Centers of Exchange has begun to except that Crypto may have at least be a store of value, and perhaps that it may become an actual medium of exchange. I’ll let you to your own conclusions as to why this is ” the good news and the bad.”

  2. RE:Market correction of 30-40% could be coming soon, investment guru Mark Mobius warns

    Dow up 300…Apple hits all-time high(up 87% over 2 years)…Warren Buffett buys 75M shares of Apple(because we know what a dummy one of the richest men on the planet is)…yessiree…any day now the Crash is coming…

    Mark Mobius, Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, Rob Kirby, Bill Holter,…there is absolutely no difference in what these guys do than if I was to pick random people off the street and say “I predict one day you will die”. One day, I will be right. But in the meantime, maybe a list of gun makers, ammo manufacturers, sporting goods suppliers that we can invest in to support our community would be of more benefit to us all instead of more doom and gloom.

    I shudder at the thought of the millions of dollars that preppers and believers of these charlatans have left on the table over the past 10 years; profits that could have been used to purchase land, firearms, food supplies, or old age comforts.

    RE: Silver
    Whenever the topic of silver comes up, I’m always reminded of two things. The first is the Mark Dice video where, in “man on the street” fashion, he asks people to choose between a 100 ounce bar of silver and a large Hershey’s chocolate bar. Overwhelmingly, the people chose the chocolate bar having no idea what the bar of silver is or its worth. The second thing is a scene in some medieval movie, set in the late 8th century: “Excuse me squire, might I purchase a bowl of your gruel for a small bit of silver”, or something like that. Unfortunately, the hopelessly oblivious represented in the Dice video far outnumber those of us that actually have a clue about the history and value of physical silver.
    In the past 150 years, no matter the crisis, there is not one example where gold or silver was traded for goods without the expectation that it would ultimately be converted to fiat currency of some sort. During the Great Depression, the price of silver actually went down to 25 cents per ounce from a high of $3.34 in 1864. Unless your theory about what will happen after a social or economic collapse includes the disintegration of EVERY central bank and/or banking system on the planet, as well as the death of all those currently in charge to maintain that system, I fail to see any scenario where we will trade in physical silver like our 8th century ancestors.

    “ATTENTION ALL CITIZENS: The possession and trading of physical gold and silver has been declared illegal. Any person found guilty will face a minimum of 20 years hard labor and will forfeit all of their possessions, to include residence and land. Any person witnessing such transactions should notify the proper authorities. A bounty of 50,000 food credits and half the possessions of the guilty will be rewarded to anyone whose tip leads to an arrest.”-Your loving Government

    Food, firearms, ammo, farmable land, toilet paper, training, medical supplies…IMHO, only when you have enormous amounts of these items should you even consider buying precious metals.

    1. I have never held to the belief that after the poop hits the fan and the dollar bill is merely toilet paper that people will trade with silver or gold. Why do i believe that. Simply because people don’t have silver or gold.

    2. I gave a big pile of Zimbabwe note to trade for your pm, watch the videos of people digging for gold because fiat was worthless. Also happened in Germany,and here in the US(pre fed,bank script)

      1. The 2008 uncirculated Zimbabwe 100 trillion note is now bringing $380USD each. If you would have purchased $500 worth for their USD value of 40 cents each, 1250 notes, they would now be worth $475,000. How much has silver gone up? I know, I know…”when the collapse comes, silver gonna be worth _____…”. Silver and gold are priced in dollars and other fiat currency. When that standard goes away, they will only be worth what someone is willing to trade, no more. Save your Zimbabwe notes, at least you can use them for fire starter.

        1. D.D.,if you really believe that is the value of that bank note,now many do you want at that price-I’ll get all I can for you(how deep are your pockets?),then grab your passport and a one way ticket to Zimbabwe and see how much they are truly worth(you should be able to live like a King). Maybe if you have that much faith, commrade Mugabe will make you Minister of Finance. But seriously I’ll get the notes for you at that price. My silver has appreciated in dollar terms fairly well(not as well as bitcoin) but it is invaluable in a number of ways as a tangible medicine,electrical conductor and over 40,000 industrial applications,I can even use it as a weapon(a roll of coins is close to brass knuckles-let your imagination run wild with uses).

          1. ” My silver has appreciated in dollar terms fairly well”–My point exactly.

            Of course I was speaking in terms of collector value in uncirculated condition of the Zimbabwe note. I have no need for them at any price, but as enthusiastic as you are about supplying them, maybe Mugabe should give you a call. I don’t disagree with the value as an industrial metal of your silver. In fact, that is the only reason it has any value at all. Try paying your property taxes in silver. My original statement was my belief that in a collapse scenario, food, firearms, or other supplies will be far more valuable than silver. I wish you well with your silver and your Zimbabwe currency selling business.

  3. Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a belief people hold when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects, because people believe that things will always function the way things normally have functioned.

  4. Feelings of impending doom can be described as sudden sensations of overwhelming fear and urgency based upon the unfounded belief that a negative event is about to occur in the immediate future. These expected negative events typically include some kind of medical emergency, a person’s death, or the world coming to an end. This effect can be the result of real evidence, but is usually based on an unfounded delusion or negative hallucinations. The intensity of these feelings can range from subtle to overwhelming enough to trigger panic attacks and a strong sense of urgency.

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