I believe that America is facing a perfect storm…A rapidly cooling climate, a committed socialist president taking over during an economic crisis, and an unfinished war with fanatical murderous thugs. I am only 49 years old, but I think my Father’s generation faced a similar storm starting in 1929. I believe we could handle any one of these problems by itself, but maybe not all at once. I wish I could suggest that we have more time and perhaps our economy will recover before a second crisis event occurs. Since the banking crisis started in August of 2007, and recessions typically last 2 -to-3 years, it should right itself by late 2010 if our government does not do something stupid. However, they are stupid and I believe we only have five months left to prepare.
I believe the climate is turning much colder due to a drop in sunspot activity. The most recent climate data shows this even if Al Gore insists on a recount (apparently Al flunked both math and science). I mention this because during the last Little Ice Age (1300-1850) global temps dropped by 3ÀöC, the farmland north of where Interstate 80 now transits reverted back to frozen marshlands, the Pacific Ocean cooled, and the resulting drop in moisture caused a prolonged drought in the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Perhaps a change to the climate of the primary agricultural areas of the US may affect your personal survival planning.
The drop in sunspot activity will also decrease the Earth’s electromagnetic field (Van Allen Belts) and ozone layer so in addition to cooling the planet it also and makes us more susceptible to solar induced damage to our nationwide electrical grid. If you here warnings about Solar flares or Solar mass ejections, wear sun block and a hat, and unplug your sensitive electrical equipment. If you are using solar panels expect a reduced output and be prepared to unplug and protect them as well.
Recently-elected President Obama is an immature Pollyanna with disturbing Marxist/Socialist friends and tendencies. He is taking over as the economy is rapidly contracting due to the falling stock market and declining home values. This crisis was actually caused by 25 years of expansionist policies of the US Federal Reserve, the US Treasury Department, and the US Congress. The massive bailout bill will not stop this, but instead will continue to feed the debt-based economy and currency expansion that caused it. Federal nationalization of the commercial banking system is just the beginning. Obama is loading up his cabinet with the most partisan members of the Clinton Administration. While Government intervention into banks and businesses is already occurring, it is likely that they will also nationalize/regulate individual retirement accounts, taxable investments, and individual rights and choices of work, travel, and association. This is not what he tells us he plans to do, this is what socialists always do, this is the change you can not afford.
We have fought to contain the terrorists in the Middle East and are finally winning in Iraq. However, keeping them there will require a continual military presence. Obama has promised to pull back the US military from Iraq, perhaps worldwide, and may reduce the size of the regular Army to fund his civilian defense force. What we learned about terrorist is that any pull back in our military posture will encourage them to strike us again. The only way to win is to aggressively pursue them and the only way to loose is to pull back and let the extremists take over the Iraqi and Saudi oil fields.
The President and the people now running DHS, FEMA, the Justice Department, and Interior Departments believe in the power of the Federal Government like a prostate religion. While they would not think this far ahead, it is inescapable that when they meet with resistance from the people the will use the US patriot act against us. Since he will be so busy spying on the vast right wing conspiracy, I expect a terrorist attack on major US cities could again occur within 6 – 8 months of Obama taking the oath of office and turn the economic crisis into a full blown depression.
No matter what the trigger event, President Obama, and his Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, stated that they will use this crisis as an opportunity to turn the county socialist. Some of the conditions I have described have distinct warning signals, such as censorship of the internet and talk radio or onerous gun control laws, but some of them are naturally occurring and completely unpredictable. I don’t believe it much matters what the event is, I believe that the result will be the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (Civil War, Famine, Pestilence, and Death).
Scenario 1: Collapse of the Banking System, Devaluation of the US Dollar, and Civil War.
The US credit market has already frozen up once (Oct 08) due to the failure of several investment banks and credit insurance companies. Without a systematic effort to draw down the risk exposure of these banks to bad home loans and derivatives it is nearly certain that many of the largest commercial banks will fail as well. The FDIC does not have the money to pay off account holders, so the US Congress will just print more money and effectively nationalize the banks.
I expect that the world economy will continue to slide into a multi-decade depression with the Dow dropping to 2,000 and unemployment reaching 20%. I expect this to cause rioting, starvation, and civil war occurring in every state and country. If we can not feed them, I expect that over one third of the world population could die due to starvation and disease.
The US may literally split politically between the urban dominated cities of the Northeastern states trying to tie themselves to Europe and the rest of the US dominated by the Midwest, Rocky Mountains, and Ohio Valley which will tie themselves to domestic agriculture and re-industrialization. Only the far western fringe will remained tied to trade with China and the Pacific Rim. There should be no expectation of receiving by Federal Retirement, Social Security, Medicare, or 401(k) money. In fact, I expect that the US Dollar will be abandoned by most folks long before it is officially replaced by silver coins. Before this time most folks will prefer to trade using storable food, ammo, and labor as the coin of the realm.
Scenario 2: Multi-City Terror Strike and Loss of Constitutional Rights.
It is also very possible for a deeply planted terrorist cell living in the US pull off a coordinated strike using conventional explosives to rapidly disperse a chemical or radioactive agent. They may attack the large cities, the critical Military bases, shipping channels, ports, and locks, and our remaining overseas Navy and Air Force Bases. These strikes will kill a few civilians, but mostly they will force the permanent evacuation of our major cities and ports.
They will cripple Washington DC, but will not kill off many of our politicians. The initial reaction from the Obama Administration looks like suspending the Constitution and our rights to gun ownership, private property, free association and travel. I believe they will quarantine the cities, suspend air travel, limit interstate travel by citizens, and turn the electronic eavesdropping ability of the NSA on the American people.
What is left of the economy will crash. Few people will have jobs and no one will be able to buy food and fuel on the open market. We will have to survive on what we have stored, what we can grow, trade, or what little the government can supply.
While rolling blackouts are inevitable, maintaining natural gas and at least the semblance of electrical power will be a priority. No doubt maintaining power in the remaining cities will come first. Most of the oil refineries will be affected and the gas and diesel that is refined will not be distributed evenly. Our system of intensive, almost industrial scale farming will collapse, and that year’s crop will fail due to the loss of irrigation. People will starve while crops rot in the fields.
Preparedness Measures
SurvivalBlog is full of detailed advise on preparing so I will only hit a few highlights.
Prepare yourself physically:
Every possible scenario will be physically and mentally stressful.
Have a Plan B:
Have a bug-out kit ready at all times, store fuel, and maintain your ride.
Have a hard copy of important papers, account and insurance numbers and phone numbers.
Have portable weapons and ammo ready to haul.
Logistics and Planning:
Route selection is very, very important.
What to drive, what to pack.
Avoid the swamps (the inner cities).
Long Term Considerations:
Build a survival retreat in a viable agricultural area.
Plan on needing a lot more supplies than you think you might.
Plan and decide how to deal with the Feds (hint: lie, lie, lie).
Plan and decide how to deal with unprepared people