Dear Jim,
In response to this: “(See the movie The Day After Tomorrow regarding tipping points). Discoveries of animals flash frozen solid with fresh grass their stomachs points to the possibility of a very fast onset to global climate change.” The Day After Tomorrow was roundly slammed by scientists and went beyond ludicrous, and the “flash frozen” animals are a myth that has never been documented. The recovered frozen mammoths have all been highly putrefied.
At present, the evidence of warming is mixed, with glaciers in Europe, South America and Antarctica all increasing [in size]. Even with the current Northern Hemisphere warming trend (Which leveled out a decade ago), we’re still quite cooler than during the Viking Era, when summer temperatures in Greenland could reach 80 degrees F. Nor is a sea level rise likely–fill a glass with ice water, let it melt, and the level will drop, because ice is less dense than water (one of water’s unique properties that makes it so useful as a basis for life). The Earth has sustained life from the Carboniferous, with double the current CO2 level and 35% oxygen [JWR Adds: Reader B.F. mentioned that the figure is acutally only about 21% oxygen], to deep ice ages with glaciers as far south as 30 degrees latitude.
That said, SF raises very good points about shifting weather patterns, all of which are cyclic. Tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, ice storms are all potential crop killers. Volcanic eruptions and meteorite impacts have affected the global environment (see The Year Without A Summer) and are definitely things to prepare for. The latter would be catastrophic, as the huge population of Earth depends upon steady movement of harvested crops to keep people fed. (I covered this as a military strategy in my novel “The Weapon.”)
Even in “normal” climate, I’ve seen snow flurries in San Antonio in August, snow on Memorial Day in Chicago, and temperatures as low as 30 degrees F in rural Ohio and Pennsylvania over July 4th weekend in quite modest hills (Also T-shirt weather in January, but that’s less of a threat). Breaking down in those hills on a back country road means you might need a fire or warm clothing at once.
I guesstimate that a local disaster (riot, tornado, earthquake) could last days, a regional one (hurricane, major earthquake, political collapse) weeks, and a global disaster (mega-volcano, large meteorite, infrastructure failure) a year or more. Once we get into that, deaths from starvation are utterly certain for those not prepared, until population reaches equilibrium with the available food supply.
This reiterates that one’s survival preparations should not be public knowledge. Starving people have and will kill to feed themselves and their children. This could be the ugliest of scenarios. – Michael Z. Williamson
Dear Jim and Family,
This is in response to the post about climate change. I have a degree in geology, though when I graduated there were no jobs. (Thanks, Bill!). There were some good points raised, however I have to raise a flag over the “flash frozen animals” thing: it’s more of a myth than a fact. Yes a few mammoths were found that way but the cause is only speculation. Far more likely they got drowned by a small tsunami raised by a calving ice sheet. That whole aspect of the movie showing superfreezing from the middle atmosphere is bunk. The Day After Tomorrow wasn’t a great film (unless you enjoy humor), however one aspect of it was right: a flood of melted ice water (low salt content) would either change or stop the Gulf Stream (shifting it South is most likely), thus suddenly allowing Arctic storms into Europe. Temperatures would drop considerably, which would actually provide much more habitat for fish but ruin crops.
During the Little Ice Age (see Wikipedia) from 1300-1850 AD, climate got very erratic. Some years were too wet for crops. Some were too dry. Some years it snowed in July. Some years the glaciers advanced several hundred yards. Other years they retreated. We’re between Ice Ages (and some geologists say that the Pleistocene isn’t over, this is just a minor retreat). For the scientifically minded, the most recent warming began 20,000 years ago, and picked up a lot around 8000 years ago, when things really started to melt. A lot of grass grew and a lot of creatures died out, and the rest of them ran upon grassy plains where our ancestors hunted them and made cave drawings and early agriculture, Sumeria, Egypt, Greece. In the present its really dried out and all the grass is gone. Lebanon has few trees but used to be covered in giant Cedars, which grow well in wetter climates. Israel was also heavily treed and resembled Eastern Arizona of today. Yes, rains and wind will probably change and after two years of studying the Pleistocene (for the purposes of writing a novel about it) … I don’t know if it will get wet during the next ice age’s arrival. I really don’t. It may dry out more and promote growth of desert. It will almost certainly be bad for crops so agriculture is going to take a beating and food supply will almost certainly be less. That’s a real problem for a population of 6.5 billion, and not so great for a population of 2 billion either (if 4.5 billion die from starvation).
One important piece of history to keep in mind: we survived the last ice age with little more than stone tools and fire. We’ll get through the next one considerably better off. It’s not like we’ll forget iron working, and properly made CD-ROMs (pressed, not burned) last for centuries. Consider how much useful information will fit in a tiny space with a very basic computer to read them. That’s nothing to sneeze at. Imagine Wikipedia complete with engineering designs and open source CAD software to help you develop it. Society won’t fall very far down the ladder if that’s the case. That engineering knowledge will let us continue to make firearms, steam engines, computers, electricity, food storage, farming, genetic engineering, navigation, etc, without having to resort to bows and arrows or wattle and daub houses. It’s very unlikely to drop below 1950s technology, we’ll just have to get by without cheap oil.
If climate change starts heading for return of the ice age, which is still possible, the way to tell is rapid growth of glaciers in formerly dry northeastern rockies. That’s where the ice sheets began last time, according to best current data. We think they began due to melting of the polar ice, which winds swept up and deposited snow on these 19,000 foot elevation plateaus (currently dry). The ice built up and flowed down slope, increasing reflected sunlight and eventually cooling the globe. It’s possible that while the ice caps remained wet (rather than icy), the ice age was already beginning.
Keep in mind there are at least 34 identified feedback loops responsible for Earth’s climate, and that’s without involving Divine Intervention. Eight of these loops are based on orbit, volcanics, and magnetic field (plus solar storms), all of which have a huge impact on climate. Based on the Milancovic cycle we’re about due to begin the next Ice Age, a point made in 1970 is that Global Cooling would kill us all (sound familiar?). Warming is curious. Higher CO2 levels are unprecedented. But the climate has been much warmer than it is now and everything didn’t die then, so I don’t expect it will die now either. Plants and animals will end up migrating to suitable habitat or dying out. That’s how it goes. And apparently there’s quite a few new species trying to come into being but they keep dying out due to human interference to “preserve” something or other green nonsense. Best not to get worked up about it.
The tropics did not require cold weather gear, however ice was in tropical environments, around subtropical plants because the ice moved faster than it could melt during certain points of its advance stage. There’s enough evidence to support this quirky image: 70’F Florida type weather and plants next to ice sheet a few dozen feet away. Yes, that’s really weird, but there’s evidence to support this. The nice thing about ice ages is there’s generally time to get out of the way, same with volcanic eruptions. You get plenty of warning. If things change, you can always built it yourself, or adapt otherwise. Everything flows from the will to live and the fortitude to endure hardship to accomplish that. Best, – InyoKern
James,
I’m tired of everyone playing the “fear” card in regards to global climate change. Man’s ability to adapt to different situations and in fact thrive in them should not be underestimated. The fact that man has lived in harsh northern environments has led to the development of countless tools, technologies, and techniques that have benefited all of mankind. In reference to the comments made by SF in Hawaii, the frozen woolly mammoth couldn’t put on a coat or jacket, we can. Also I don’t know that an autopsy was ever actually performed on that animal, I think everyone just assumed it froze to death but as far as I know it might have died of an aneurysm! If ocean levels ever rise fifteen feet I will personally go to SF’s house and move his belongings to higher ground. I do not believe there is enough water on the planet to raise ocean levels anywhere close to fifteen feet. At any rate it is downright foolish to try and take anything from the movie “The Day After Tomorrow” other than entertainment, and even the that was marginal. The climate will change, is changing, and has always changed, the part mankind plays in all of this is miniscule at best, and very likely totally insignificant. Whatever changes lie ahead we will overcome them, that’s why we are all here; to overcome whatever hardships we may face. We will face these challenges with strength, faith, truth, ingenuity, wisdom, justice, and communities such as this on SurvivalBlog. If people want to do something for the environment that’s fine, but don’t be so foolish as to think you are going to prevent global climate change. Reduce, reuse, and recycle, these are good things no matter what your political stripe, and buying quality instead of junk is always wise for the survivor. – A. Friendly