James:
I have a reply to SurvivalBlog reader John Z.’s comment on Untapped North American Oil Reserves What many non-geoligist/chemist oil commentators forget (likely are fighting a political and economic panic) when they feel safe in our huge North American reserves is the problem of either extraction or processing.
Most of the light sweet crude (easy to extract transport and crack) has already been discovered I do not know of any new light sweets (of any size) in over 10 years.
Heavy sour requires different less efficient chemistry in the refining process (much more sulfur) and the USA only has a few refineries set up for heavy sour such as that which comes from Venezuela.
Oil and tar sands and shales are much more difficult to extract than a nice pressurized well in the desert it requires huge water and natural gas resources (natural gas is exceedingly difficult to liquefy and transport very few new discoveries North America is near peak) as they are extracted with steam.
Other areas may be very difficult to reach. For example, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is a long way in, and only accessible in the winter over an ice road.
Much of what you see in the rise of light sweet is just dollar inflation against gold backed oil nations coupled with Chinese/Indian oil demand matching US demand of 10 years ago. America just got used to getting oil for almost free and built an economy with this assumption, name anything else (even bottled water) that you can buy a gallon of for so cheap right now. Even a non-gas (nuclear?) tar/sand/shale refinery would need many mighty rivers to supply the US and Canada’s needs at the current level and a minimum of 20 years of crash investment in the needed refining infrastructure, not a free ride like pressurized light sweet crude.
I have done some work for a Canadian iron ore concern and the seasonal nature of transport up north (iced waters and snow) and the price of new rails and dredged bays is massive.
I believe that Divine Providence will provide what is right for individuals, families, and even many communities but I fear for the USA as a nation. – David
David in Israel Re: “Peak Oil” and North American Oil Reserves
