Some Thoughts About COVID-19, by The Novice

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Introduction

COVID-19 has a big impact on each of our lives. We make decisions daily regarding COVID-19 that influence the lives and futures of those we love and care for. As a result, I have been giving COVID-19 a lot of attention and thought for many months now. I would like to share some thoughts, opinions, and speculations about COVID-19 that may spur your thinking. I invite you to share your thoughts, opinions and speculations as well, in case they may be helpful to me.

The Bottom Line

COVID-19 is a new virus, to which none of us has prior resistance. It has become endemic throughout the world. The combination of extensive spread and little resistance means that the vast majority of the population of the world will probably become infected sooner or later. Pandora’s box is open, and there is no going back. To some extent, our efforts to stop the disease resemble a child building a sandcastle to try to stop a tidal wave. The primary question is not, “How effective will our countermeasures be?” The primary question is, “How big is the wave?”

When the early results of antibody testing began to become available, I concluded that roughly 350,000 people in the United States would probably die of COVID-19 by the time the first wave of the disease had run its course (the first wave being here defined as about 70% of the population becoming infected with COVID-19 for the first time). I concluded that there were steps that could be taken to influence how quickly people died, but that those steps would not have a large influence on how many people actually died of COVID-19 in the end.

I do not say this lightly. I do not want 350,000 people to die. I may be among the people who die. People I love may be among the people who die. But saying or pretending that we can have a significant impact on the number who die of the infection will not make it true. Sometimes the power of fallen nature dwarfs our puny human efforts.

However, in my initial calculations, I may have underestimated the foolishness of certain public officials. By placing active COVID-19 patients in nursing homes with the most vulnerable portion of the population, some state governors managed to create an even higher death rate than I anticipated for their states. These types of counterproductive actions could conceivably raise the death toll for the first wave as high as 500,000.

On the other hand, the death rate in recent weeks has been lower than I anticipated. I am not sure if medical professionals are developing more effective treatment protocols, if the virus has mutated to a less deadly strain, or if some other factor is at work. In any case, I rejoice, and hope that this development may keep the total initial death toll to as low as 250,000.

Timing

Although our puny efforts may have very little impact on how many people die of COVID-19 itself, they may have some impact on how many people die as “collateral damage”. If we can slow the transmission of the disease, we may help to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed by COVID-19. This will enable medical professionals to continue to treat the other, non-COVID-19 illnesses and injuries that people are experiencing in the midst of the pandemic. So it is helpful to try to slow the spread of COVID-19, not so much to reduce the death rate of COVID-19 itself, but to reduce the death rate from other causes during the course of the pandemic.

Masks

Mask wear probably helps to slow the rate of infection a little. Masks may also help to reduce the severity of any infections that they do not prevent by reducing virus load. So in general, I think that mask wear should be encouraged.

Public health officials did a grave disservice to the country by discouraging mask wear early in the pandemic. By knowingly lying to the public about masks at that time, they forfeited their credibility, and sowed the seeds for the current public discord over this issue. I think once you have lied to people about the efficacy of wearing masks, it is foolish to try to mandate that they wear them. Human nature being what it is, a lot of people are going to feel that they are being led around by the nose, and they will rebel. Then masks take on a symbolic rather than a practical significance, and the possibility of a rational discussion has been lost.

In that context, I must confess to being a mask chameleon. If I am with a group of people wearing masks, I am happy to wear a mask, because I think it helps a little. If I am with a group of people not wearing masks, I am happy to not wear a mask, because I don’t think it helps all that much. So I love everyone, whether or not they are wearing a mask. But all other things being equal, I wish they were wearing a mask.

Schools

Some of my friends think that sending kids to school is tantamount to putting them under a death sentence. I think the risk of them dying in an accident on the way to school or on the way home is much higher than their risk of dying from COVID-19 contracted at school.

There is an element of risk for the teachers, just as there is an element of risk for all the rest of us who have gone back to work. Some of my Facebook friends who are most opposed to schools restarting have been posting quite a bit about how much alcohol they have consumed during the pandemic. I don’t understand why they think that alcohol is important enough for liquor store employees to need to go to work, but that education is not important enough for teachers to need to go to work. I think that if public school teachers are less committed to education than grocery store clerks are to feeding us, then we should eliminate public education and privatize the school system.

Early on, the concern was that students would catch COVID-19 at school and transmit it to their families. Subsequent studies have suggested that the risk of child to adult transmission is vanishingly rare.

Indoor and Outdoors

Some of my conservative friends are concerned about transmission during protests and riots. I am not. The risk of outdoor transmission seems to be extremely low.

I wonder how much impact this low rate of outdoor transmission has had on the pattern of infection in cold weather versus warm weather states. Early in the year, when people in cold weather states spent a lot of time indoors because of the weather, the rate of infection was higher there than in the warm weather states. When the heat of summer came, and the inhabitants of warm weather states withdrew inside to air-conditioned comfort, their rate of infection rose dramatically. As the cold weather states also began to get hot, the rate of infection began to rise again there. It will be interesting to see what happens when things begin to cool off again in the autumn.

Stay at Home Orders

I have not been able to discern any relationship between issuing or relaxing stay at home orders for healthy people and infections rates. Stay at home orders don’t seem to be effective to me.

Quarantines

It does seem to make sense for people who are sick to isolate themselves away from the healthy. This seems to be an effective way of slowing the spread of the disease.

Reinfection

The common cold is another corona-virus. We all know from bitter experience that getting a cold does not confer lifetime immunity. I suspect that being infected with COVID-19 will also not confer lifetime immunity. I do expect, however, that subsequent COVID-19 infections will tend to be less severe than the initial infection.

A Vaccine?

I think it is unlikely that a vaccine will be developed that will confer lifelong immunity to COVID-19. The attempt to develop vaccines for other corona-viruses has not been very successful. They may be able to develop vaccines that provide temporary immunity or that reduce the severity of infections. I do not want to be a guinea pig for a poorly tested vaccine for a disease that has a reasonably high recovery rate. I am not against vaccines in general, but I get the impression that corners are being cut in COVID-19 vaccine research.

Conclusion

Well, there you go. My thoughts, opinions, and speculations about COVID-19. What do you think, and why? I hope you are able to share something that will help me polish my expectations and make better preparation for whatever is to come.


148 Comments

  1. My main question to all the medical experts Is if this Baloney is so deadly why are masks not treated as a Bio-Hazard?Why do they get thrown in the garbage?

    1. For the same reason that used Kleenex tissues from people with flu, colds, etc get thrown into the trash. Viruses die on exposed surfaces whereas some dangerous bacteria can last a long time.

      Viruses like this Wuhan virus and flu are mostly spread by particles in the air from people coughing — not by being absorbed through cuts in the skin.

      Some conditions –e.g, AIDS — are rare enough and dangerous enough that control of material is possible. But such controls may not be practical for highly infectious airborne diseases.

      1. That’s just not true! If virus is on a surface it can be dislodged and become airborne. AND you can get it on your hands and transmit it to your eyes or nose. The mask, if it works at all, becomes a source of infection and should destroyed.

        1. How many people have gotten this virus — or the flu — from groping around in strangers’ garbage bags?

          I did not argue that used masks should be shared and reused among people without being washed.

          What is wrong with discarding disposable masks in the trash and from washing cloth ones in lysol?

          1. You don’t know the answer to that. It could have been most of them for all we know. We simply do not know how many people got this virus from touching something and then touching eyes or nose.

    2. Brian because a virus outside the human body (or other living vector like your Dog) is destroyed by dehydration and UV light exposure from daylight and even most artificial light sources. The times required for this decontamination depends on relative humidity, air flow, how much UV exposure as well as the materials involved.

      Personally as a health care provider I reuse my personal masks by placing them outside on what an older person might call a “Unmentionable’s” spring clip hangers. Why? Because I am not going to steal masks from work and as long as they are properly dried and sun kissed I feel comfortable that they are ready for more service. When dirty or damaged I throw them away.

      So Brian why is your skivvies not treated as Bio-Hazard? Toilet paper doesn’t do that great a job. Because we can wash and reuse them. Odd how basic sanitation like soap and water can prevent e-coli from our own daily fecal matter from making us sick.

      I’ve worked in the HOT Spot known as the Hospital for several decades. I’ve worked through AIDS, Avian Flu, H1N1, Ebola and now COVID19 as well as many VERY Serious Flu Seasons. I’ve kept my health and my family’s health intact by following some simple protocols during such sicknesses.

      #1 I wash my hands and DO NOT touch my eyes, nose or mouth. That’s the #1 vector of viruses into your system. You’d be amazed if you watch folks fiddle with their mask, rub their eyes, play with their “Smart Phone” and then touch almost everything with those dirty fingers.

      In the Army they taught us how to become aware of your fingers and your face. They cut open a jalapeno pepper and we rubbed our fingers in it. REAL SOON you’ll learn how often you touch your eyes, nose and face. After a session or three (for the slow ones) you’ll get much better about dirty hands.

      #2 limit exposure. The human body was designed to deal with infections. It deals with them all the time even now as you read this. The immune system is your primary line of defense. You only become aware of an infection when the body is Losing the Fight. Support your immune system by getting plenty of sleep, stay well hydrated, reduce the viral load by washing your hands and today wear a mask PROPERLY, cover both the mouth and nose and don’t fiddle with it until it’s time to put it in the trash or recycle it. Stay away from crowds you don’t have to go into.

      #3 When you get home decontaminate!! I walk into my mud room and all my clothing goes into the washing machine. My shoes never come inside my home. I do a soap and water washcloth bath of my face and exposed skin. ALL before I play with my dog or hug my wife.

      I could say more but I’m not writing an article.

      1. Thank you, Michael! These are excellent points of guidance and reminders to us all. So very much appreciated, and hoping you’ll write that article!

      2. Michael,
        Completely agree with all you have said, exactly the steps I follow to help prevent infecting myself.
        I have said this many times on this site, but will say again, properly wearing a mask of any type is essential in not contaminating yourself……many YouTube videos on donning and doffing PPE’s.

        If people cannot understand the science of reduced infection and transmission by wearing a mask properly, then they have not researched properly, it really is just common sense.

      3. Excellent! Well written, cogent and concise….not to mention much needed. Not everyone inderstands the basics of infection control/prevention. Heck, even a fair number of my peers need to be reminded, coached and retrained and they are front line healthcare professionals. Mr Rawles should invite you to write an article, or two.

    3. The people around you are throwing them in the GARBAGE??? Heck; out here, they’re tossing them on the ground in parking lots everywhere!

      …Masks are a JOKE…

  2. I honestly believe the covid 19 is a man-made virus/bio weapon created y demonic entities to cull the population. More by fear and loss of economic stability. If everyone stays home there is no one to work and contribute to society. We have nearly lost our economy to this disease. The masks clearly don’t work and the info that is being disseminated to the populace is total bovine excrement. Every person on earth will test positive for it as it’s the same virus as a common cold. Wake up sheeple, we’ve been had.

      1. I pity the poor Italians. They got the government they voted for (maybe or maybe not). Their government failed from the git-go, a truly tragic comedy of errors. Italy has been broken for a very long time and, as always, the people paid the heavy price.

      1. This is illogical. Everyone with children know that children are like little petri dishes and everything they bring home the family catches. What you should question is why someone would do a study intended to prove that children don’t spread illness to their parents. Who though that up and why?

        1. OneGuy, some things about Covid 19 are counter-intuitive. For example, when I first heard about the disease, I assumed the very young and the very old would be the worst hit. I am glad that I was wrong about the very young.

          1. I’m not sure if that’s true or not- the not transmitting it to adults part. I think we really don’t have a good handle on any of this. I also don’t believe what the so-called authorities say. So if they want kids to go back to school they’ll say they don’t transmit it and if they want them to stay home they’ll say that they do. I’d just like the truth but it’s hard to know; who knows exactly how anyone got it?

          2. Ani, it is my impression that the Powers That Be do not want the kids to go back to school because they want to maintain a sense of panic. Actual contact tracing suggests that they don’t transmit it to adults very often, but the media doesn’t like that and tries to explain it away. Anyway, take a look at the available information, and see who is giving actual data, and who is speculating in the absence of data.

    2. In literally 8 seconds, a search on “child to adult covid transmission” yielded dozens of results. The first several basically stated the same thing – that it is possible but surprisingly unlikely – just as the author mentioned.

      Yesterday there was a different commenter on a different story asking that author for a link to a source. C’mon people, with the same effort it took you to ask for a link you could have done your own search and found MANY links on the subject of interest.

      Do you own homework. Stop asking to be spoon-fed.

      1. not provided: This is a mostly friendly place,kind of like a family.We have our disagreements
        but when help is asked for many respond.
        We apologize for any inconvenience.

        1. notprovided: When someone requests the URL to an article(s) they are not doing so because they are lazy or incompetent, they are doing so because they want to read the specific article(s) referenced or used to compile a comment. This typically provides the genesis to begin deeper research into the subject and possibly providing supporting/counter supporting documentation.

          In my ten plus years of visiting SB daily it is my opinion that most folks that comment are well educated and experienced, and dare I say – not lazy. A curious and driven bunch.

          I agree with Vickie – this is a family friendly site where people support each other as much as possible and I also offer an apology for any inconvenience you may have experienced.

    3. “In the most comprehensive study of COVID-19 pediatric patients to date, Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and Mass General Hospital for Children (MGHfC) researchers provide critical data showing that children play a larger role in the community spread of COVID-19 than previously thought.”

      Children do play a significant role in transmission according to some studies. SARS-CoV-2 is new virus and the issue of transmission among school-age children is far from clearly understood.

      http://outbreaknewstoday.com/massachusetts-general-hospital-researchers-show-children-are-silent-spreaders-of-sars-cov-2-49362/?fbclid=IwAR3SIGuVnnYR-qZa77EIW4L-SwyyByyePkd7oYv8F2ZmEJBMmbUmxAEg8wg

      1. Hi Bob1, The study you cited shows that children can have high virus loads. It does not show that they actually transmit the disease frequently to adults. The study I have cited above is aware of the study you cited, but based on actual contact tracing draws the conclusion that children do not in fact play a significant role in transmission.

        I agree that it seems logical that children should be a significant source of transmission. But the data does not seem to support that conclusion.

  4. Don’t wear a mask, Wear a mask, Mandatory Mask, Not that kinda of mask, Give your N95s to medical staff because they don’t help you, These type masks are now banned, Punished at work for trying to wear a mask but now punished for not wearing the right type of mask.
    You must only wear a gown (because the virus doesn’t attach itself to shin areas or shoes.)
    Stupidity of medical “experts” is what needs to be vaccinated.

    1. Matt,

      IMO, you are correct in the sense that what is more widely published in the news media seems to conflict. At the same time, the official narrative is more about securing the state.

      Fauci originally said (among others) masks do not protect people. I think this was done because there was a shortage of masks for first responders.

      As more data became available, different masks, even if they were perceived to be useful, were supported mainly because of the balancing act with the economy. And my favorite, Fauci then stated that American’s dont trust science or government, when only a month or two prior he said masks dont help, and then later said masks do help.

      The entire narrative has been consistent in regards to making sure that the government structure is protected first. I am sure you are well aware of this, my goal with this comment is to put this thought in a place for others to consider.

      I am curious to see if and how Covid changes as we move into the fall and winter.

      1. In Dr Fauci’s own words: New England Journal of Medicine Feburary 28, 2020: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

        If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

        1. While this may be true, let us not forget the amount of social distancing and lock down measures that have been put in place which had some sort of impact of transmission rates. The current data that everyone loves to cite is not valid in situations that would have otherwise been normal, which is to say everyone going about as normal.

          1. The measures were imposed because the explosion of deaths in Italy and New York City in March scared Homeland Security. New York City has only 2.5% of the US population but was having 33% of the deaths from this virus. With bodies being stacked up in improvised morgues/ freezer trucks.

            https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-19-s-death-toll-new-york-city-was-similar-n1236591

            https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2020/03/25/nyc-morgues-near-capacity-dhs-briefing-warns-1268964

            Because stupid Mayor Blasio was urging people to go out to the restaurants and Broadway shows.

        2. “…Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)…”

          Hey Is It Time, when all is said and done and we finally know the total number of symptomless carriers, I think you will be right that the death rate will be similar to the flu and various other pandemics that have happened in our lifetimes. My favorite observation I’ve heard about the Covid-1984 virus is that when we had the Hong Kong pandemic in 1969, we did nothing about it and put a man on the moon that year. This year with the Covid-1984 virus they can’t even get a roll of toilet paper to the stores.

  5. In my county, the infection rate, with the gross assumption the infection numbers are accurate, is a tick over 3%. Most likely it is higher because many infected people never were accurately diagnosed. At the reported rates, possibly accurate but not likely lower, the death rate among the infected is just a tick over one-tenth-of-one-percent. The big cities are much different due to population density, I guess. I have trouble thinking either pandemic or endemic. The likelihood “the vast majority of the population of the world” will eventually become infected does not seem likely.

  6. Both antibodies created by B-cells and cellular action by T-cells are part of the defense against viral pathogens. Experts are finding “pre-existing’ T-cell immunity against Covid-19 in a significant number of persons. There may also be cross-protection from antibodies created against a somewhat similar past infection, in some persons.

    It’s important to recognize that there is a well known mathematical relationship between the transmissability coefficient of a virus/population-behavior, and the required % of immunity to effectively halt further significant transmission. Why this is not being widely taught is beyond me. At any particular level of “social distancing” there will be a particular level of immunity required to achieve “herd immunity” and that will CHANGE if social behavior changes. This is why states like GA etc had new onslaughts after relaxing their behaviors. Despite enormous damage done by our authorities, our death rate in the USA is inching exactly toward that of Sweden — a nation where leadership concluded little could be maintained long enough…..

    Persons who are at significant risk should continue to maintain strict behavior until there is a better solution or significant herd immunity within their own community. If you’re unlucky, this can indeed kill you. For those with no significant risk factors (age, comorbidities) far less restrictions may be necessary, unless they have contact with others at significant risk. Balancing act.

    2. Very much appreciated your post, PrepperDoc! Agreed… Why the mathematical relationships are not being taught is beyond me. …but then again, and in addition to the mathematics, critical thinking skills have largely been lost. One aspect of the challenge before us is the information (the mathematics), and another is how to understand the information in the context of the broader issue (the critical thinking).

      From your post… “Persons who are at significant risk should continue to maintain strict behavior until there is a better solution or significant herd immunity within their own community. If you’re unlucky, this can indeed kill you. For those with no significant risk factors (age, comorbidities) far less restrictions may be necessary, unless they have contact with others at significant risk. Balancing act.”

      Related to this paragraph… I would add the idea of 6 degrees of separation (and offer the humorous Kevin Bacon example also called “Bacon’s Law”). For anyone unfamiliar, the introduction at the link below will provide an explanation.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees_of_Kevin_Bacon

      Essentially I would say this… Each one of us is much closer to contact with others of significant risk than we realize.

      Please be careful, everyone — for your sake, and for the sake of others.

    3. Prepper Doc, I don’t think the increase in GA is related to reopening. They began to reopen on April 24, and did not see a significant rise in cases until mid June.

      1. Responding to The Novice to help with additional insight. There is some lag time between the viral seeding, the emergence of illness, the reports of patients to medical facilities, the accumulation of data, and the relay of that data through news reports. I am personally very familiar with conditions in Georgia, and sincerely believe the jump in cases is related both to seeding time and to the reopening (although it’s fair to say that transmission was happening even during the stay-at-home and shelter-in-place policies simply because there was still a whole lot of human activity and unprotected contact. There is more than one factor at play to be sure, and the reopening is among the influences. Please also note that I am not suggesting that it was possible to remain “shut down” or even wise. I am often heard encouraging wiser steps including the use of PPE to prevent transmission so that many more people can safely engage a greater number of activities — from shopping at the local grocery to visiting their doctors in person.

  7. Great article. Was thinking of writing one myself. More thoughts….
    Sunlight kills viruses. (That’s from ninth grade science, albeit, 40years ago). Direct sunlight kills in minute and half, cloudy or indirect in 6 minutes. So get the shopping cart from the parking lot, it will be virus-less and help keep run away carts from hitting my car. For the extreme phobic, put your items from the store on the driveway in sunlight, then turn them over before bringing inside. Same for shoes, etc. masks, too. Also, have meetings, get together, appointments whenever possible out in sun. So, go to the beach, go to the park, work in your garden, enjoy the sunlight.
    Also…..silver, copper, nickel also kill germs. Old time rich folks had copper sinks, bath tubs, (we had a copper bathtub with a wood surround when I was little on our farm). Kitchen sinks were all by the window, remember sunlight kills germs. I thought about getting copper doorknobs….
    Vitamin D made by your body from sunlight hitting your skin, also helps keep you healthy on the inside. Add in vitamin C, E and Zn, should help keep you healthy.
    Silver kills.. so we pulled out the ‘good silverware’ inherited from my mom and from my uncle and are using it all the time. Not saving it for the second wife. The old saying, “born with a silver spoon in his mouth” not only meant the child was from wealthy parents but also that he would more likely survive the childhood diseases.

  8. 1. Novel virus but from a common family. Several strains routinely infect and are defeated by immune system.
    2. Immune System has several cells. B cells give specific immunity, T cells recognize similar families.
    3. PCR test invented by Kary Mullis in 1980s. Not designed to diagnose illness.
    4. HIV virus may cause AIDS illness. Sars-Cov2 may cause Covid19. But maybe not.
    5. Dr. Birx said about test accuracy; if 1% have it, false positive will be 50%.
    6. PCR test checks for corona family common fragment, not entire genome.
    7. A different corona virus can cause you to test positive for Covid19.
    8. Masks vary wildly in form, function, and effectiveness. Some even worse than not.
    9. WHO failed miserably from start and sowed misinformation. Dictating all response.
    10. China coverup and failed to contain virus. Touted as model for world to follow.
    11. mRNA “vaccines” are not traditional vaccines and will alter your genetic code.
    12. Warp Speed vaccine project is skipping important safety trials.
    13. No evidence vaccines will confer immunity for more than 6 weeks. 9 shots/year?
    14. Death rate for 60+ is 3x flu. Below 60 is less than flu.
    15. WHO claims they must go into homes and remove family members.
    16. New Zealand has built “health centers” for people removed from their homes.
    17. WHO policy dictated to national level CDC, FDA, NIH.
    18. National policy dictated to State level Dept of Health. UN runs local policy.
    19. No discussion of immune boosters/virus prevention; Vit C, D, and zinc.
    20. Distorted science on potential treatments. Ignoring decades of knowledge.
    21.Widespread censorship of medical doctors sharing what has worked for them.

  9. Covid 19 is a Coronavirus to which millions of people have some level of immunity. If that were not so there would not be millions of cases of people exposed, infected, and presenting no symptoms. Masks do nothing. Even N95 masks only filter bacteria and virus down to 3 microns. The coronavirus is half that size. There are treatments that work, and lab work has shown that the ones most affected had deficient Vit D levels. Build your immune system. Get some sunshine. Go back to your life.

    1. That is incorrect. The lack or seeming lack of response in some people to becoming infected is simply the way their body reacts and not immunity. They get the disease therefore they are not immune. For most people who die from covid or other viruses it is in fact the bodies response to covid and not the covid itself.

      1. @ One Guy

        The latest research is showing that many people have immunity to similar viruses and thus have some level of protection against Covid-19 even though they have never had that particular virus before. This is why it’s theorized that the levels of infection have been markedly lower than would otherwise have been thought.

      2. One Guy,
        You state that “For most people who die from covid or other viruses it is in fact the bodies response to covid and not the covid itself.” is not an accurate statement. Or might I say that the numbers being listed in each state and the country is misleading. I heard of a man that was killed in a motorcycle accident that was citied as a covid death on his death certificate. Other people have stated that they received positive test results, but they had not been tested. One man (in his 70’s) was told he was positive for covid, but after one week in the hospital, it was discovered he actually had mersa.
        The numbers being released are falsified to an extent to receive money from the government. Due to this greed and deceit, I do not believe most of the information delivered.
        I take precautions, but still live my life. Work (virtual and constant since at my work location since August 3), grocery store, minimal “pleasure” shopping in a store (4 trips in 4 months).
        Our country cannot continue staying home and paying out millions in stimulus checks for individuals and prop ups of businesses. Fiscally that is unsustainable.
        Be responsible when out around others, but let’s get back to work.

  10. People seem to think medicine is a black and white area — that something has to be 100% effective all the time to be a valid treatment. But biology and medicine are not physics — often there is a range of certainty, a range of evidence and a range of effectiveness depending upon the circumstances.

    People vary in their body chemistry — some can shrug off a bee sting while others go into shock if they are allergic.

    Doctors work with triage — it may not be possible to save 100% of the patients but if one saves 80% versus 40% then that is good. Partial failures and death is part of the job.

    With a new disease, they work with uncertainty — some measures like masks and social distancing may only partially work but are still useful if they save a lot of lives. Obviously those measures are likely have a higher payoff in crowded city environments than in low population rural areas.

    Demanding large, scientific studies that take a year to execute as evidence before adopting emergency measures against a deadly pandemic — that has killed over 100,000 Americans — doesn’t make sense to me.

    Doctors spend almost a decade on very hard work and study to get their licenses — their expertise should be respected. They are not the only seat at the table obviously. Economic collapse kills people as well — poverty, suicides,etc. –and doctors are not corporate executives with deep knowledge of supply chain vulnerabilities. But doctors should be heard and differences of opinion within their ranks does not indicate deception. Few claim to be infallible. But people suffering deeply because of loss of jobs and income should be heard as well.

    I agree that leaders should not lie — should not have told people early on that masks don’t work. But I would note that doctors and nurses were being asked to risk their lives with a totally inadequate supply of N95 masks.

    If the truth were told, then some selfish people at low risk would still have tried to grab every N95 mask they could — with utter disregard for the resulting deaths of doctors and nurses actually caring for sick people. Just as some now feel entitled to risk the lives of their fellow countrymen –including children — in the name of “freedom” by not wearing masks that are available.

    Leaders lie –in times of war as well as pandemics — when they think saving the lives of their fellow countrymen is more important than personal morals. Look at all the children burned alive at Hiroshima and Nagasaki — and in 49 Japanese cities napalmed into ashes — to save more US soldiers and Marines from dying in the Pacific.

    I myself think it is arrogant to dispute the advice of doctors on a matter of life and death without making the effort to be as knowledgable and experienced as the doctors.

    I think it is unfair to smear doctors when the doctors take an oath over 2000 years old to help patients, not harm them. There have been pictures in the news of nurses crying in hospitals because they have been unable to save patients. In some hospitals, doctors struggle with guilt because limited resources force them to decide who is given a chance to live and who is condemned to die.

    1. “Doctors struggle with guilt because limited resources force them to decide who is given a chance to live and who is condemned to die.”
      This must be different doctors from the ones performing daily abortions (72,000,000 since 1973) and medically assisted suicides.

    2. Don Williams… Well said. I very much appreciated the sharing of your carefully considered thoughts across many of the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis.

      I wanted to add to and amplify one particular point…

      From your post: “But doctors should be heard and differences of opinion within their ranks does not indicate deception. Few claim to be infallible. But people suffering deeply because of loss of jobs and income should be heard as well.”

      To this I would add a couple of thoughts…

      1) In our “safety net society”, people have a very difficult time understanding and estimating risk, and they rely all too often on others for guarantees. Simply stated, life does not come without risk — handle with great care, and understand that you yourself must participate in risk assessment and risk management and responsible decision making.

      2) Having been a first author involved in medical research and the publication of papers related to that research (not on the subject of infectious disease, but another area of specialization), I can add my voice to others who address differences of opinion within the medical community. These are real, and often honest. It’s fair to say that there are also those who are driven by political motivations, that not all medical professionals are created equal and some are more informed, and that like any other segment of our population, some are guided by greater conscience than others. With this having been stipulated, there remain honest differences of opinion among those clinicians whose primary concern is the health and well being of patients. Behind the scenes and outside the eyes of readers who receive the final publication product, challenges typically play out in the debates that occur among peers in evaluation of the papers submitted for consideration. Differences and debate should be encouraged in medicine as in other areas of life. Politics should not govern or squash these exchanges which — like free speech generally — should be protected.

      1. I would concur. The most astute, scathing critic of improvised masks I have read focused on what facts he could determine and critical analysis of airflows.
        I have no problem with someone sincerely trying to determine the truth.
        But the right to speak also carries an obligation to have a responsible concern for your fellow human beings. Most of all, to not lie.

        This researcher’s concern is that the masks would encourage people to neglect other measures — avoiding close contact, crowded rooms, washing hands,etc. and not realize the mask’s shortcomings. He thought at the end of the day they might still partially help and was upset that people driven by politics, not medical concerns, were citing his criticisms as reasons to not wear masks no matter what the circumstances.

        1. It’s so very important for people to read beyond a headline or two, and into the heart of the material at hand in order to fully understand the information being conveyed. You make an excellent point, and this is an assessment worth the attention fo all SB readers — applying this to medicine, and to the news of the world at large.

    3. Referring to the Hippocratic Oath of years ago….what these people, who only have to score a 75% on the final exam, to start “practicing”on you…is much more stringent,and caring about life…than the diluted,allowing for murder of the unborn version…that is used today to assuage their actions and guilt.
      And how many take the time to recite/think about that oath,prior to cutting or mandating that you have to have THIS drug to survive.
      IF they did think about this”oath” BEFORE acting, we wouldn’t have 250k deaths each year from medical MALPRACTICE from the 75% ers.

      Just saying for a friend who worked for 15 years around these PRACTITIONERS.

  11. We will never know the actual number of people who died from this “pandemic” until the actual yearly death rates stats come in a couple years. There is a difference between dying from Covid and dying with Covid. 2018 death rates, last year that I could find, show 2.8 million US deaths. 7700 per day, 1500 per day from heart disease alone. How many of these people went into the Covid column? We will have to wait for the numbers. Personally I think the virus hype is overblown. My area was hit hard back in Mar-Apr. I know several people who have had it. My SIL ,70 years old and a heavy smoker, had it. She says it was like a bad cold. A dozen guys at the firehouse, younger and healthier, have had it. They were all back to work in a few weeks. Obviously any death is tragic and people are suffering because of these lockdowns.

  12. Our Revered Western Medicine creates and maintains compromised individuals. Why are we surprised that deaths From Covid could be greater here than elsewhere Where people are not subjected to such practices or minimally Exposed to such?

  13. I rely on my experience.

    (The millennial crowd might say ‘my personal experience’ or ‘my first-hand experience’ or, good grief, ‘my personal first-hand experience’, but I’m not that chatty.)

    I tend to distrust second-hand information.
    (I also tend to distrust any words or acts from TheMainStreamMedia / TheGovernmentAgents.
    Who benefits?
    Follow the money.)

    The statistics promoted by the propaganda machine of TheMalignantOverlords… well, I tend to be not impressed by them.

    “According to reports from ____ [fill in the blank], we are all going to get ‘it’ aka ‘the invisible enemy’, but only an insignificant number will have symptoms, but those symptoms will magically disappear. But, occasionally, some sick folks might die. But we don’t know what we don’t know.”

    How about your physical body?
    Is it going to die?
    Did you intentionally degrade your wonderful physical body through decades of abuse?
    An immune system compromised by consuming pesticides and other petroleum-based chemicals can be fatally susceptible to common bugs while a healthy body automatically passes those same bugs as if they don’t exist.

    As I see it, the problem isn’t The! Current! Fright! coming from the propaganda machine, although the physical and spiritual stresses from a continuous drenching in such filth impacts all areas of our health.
    The problem is intentionally choosing the easy path:
    * hand-to-mouth existing out of a box of cereal,
    * shovel-down a tub of ice-cream while lazing in the recliner,
    * buying a year gym membership then quitting after two visits,
    * spectating at televisionprogramming instead of pretty much any other activities short of jumping into a volcano.

    Although some of our species intentionally choose to ignore our intrinsic knowledge, each of us instinctively understands this fundamental truth:
    * The essential elements of health are a) working in our garden, and b) eating from our garden.

    If you avoid the forge, your steel cannot be tempered.

    When would be a good time to remember the garden?

  14. “Doctors struggle with guilt because limited resources force them to decide who is given a chance to live and who is condemned to die.”
    This must be different doctors from the ones performing daily abortions (72,000,000 since 1973) and medically assisted suicides.

  15. I’m totally tired of this whole thing, the government response, the general ignorance of the American people about most things (especially science), and their willingness to be sheep as usual. If anyone knows anyone with the virus, please send me their address so I can go get infected, or cough into a mask and overnight it to me. We’re ALL going to get it eventually, there’s no doubt of that whatsoever. The sooner the better so our evil politicians can stop “letting a good crisis go to waste.”

    The CDC’s estimate I saw three weeks ago (cannot find the chart on their website now) has the percentage of people testing positive but symptomless at 40%. That number has been increasing every time they publish their new estimates. The link below has a paper published where 81% of the passengers on a cruise ship who tested positive were showing no symptoms. Yes, there may have been some false positives but the CDC’s estimate is at least ballpark.

    https://time.com/5842669/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission/

    I have to laugh every time I see groups of protesters. They’re just a bunch of bored sheep following the herd and they are all wearing masks when that age group has virtually zero chance of dying. Dumb, stupid, ignorant sheep. And no, they don’t all live with their 98 year old sick granny.

    Anyone who has concerns about the virus need to quarantine themselves and leave the rest of us the heck alone! People die, get over it! Why isn’t anyone screaming about all the things like smoking that cause a heck of a lot more deaths every year, 480,000 according to the CDC. Those are real deaths, not like the very inflated numbers of Covid-1984 deaths. Inflated because states get on average $150,000 PER CASE reported in their states. Nebraska gets $379,000 per case. Here’s the list:

    https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/state-by-state-breakdown-of-federal-aid-per-covid-19-case.html

    Enough already! Almost everyone (old diabetics not included) who is complying with the masks and the lockdowns instead of protesting is only helping to make the problem worse. The land of the free and home of the brave? BS. Two states have already mandated receiving the vaccine as soon as they come up with one. What are you going to do when it happens in your state? The vast majority are going to lay down and take it.

    I’d tell you how I really feel but it would be unpublishable on a civil website like our beloved SurvivalBlog. 🙂

    1. Yep. But people are sheeple. In my state, which has done really well so far in terms of virus numbers and deaths, most people I talk to are convinced it’s because we are all pretty much mandated to wear masks and so we do(we are so special and virtuous). When I suggest that perhaps part of it is that we have such a low population density and other states have way higher population densities, they deny that this could be the cause. And when I mention that the south in particular has a very high level of obesity which has been correlated with high risk in Covid and that our state has one of the lowest obesity levels, they also deny that this could be the cause. They’re convinced it’s our masks. I even see people driving down the road by themselves here wearing a mask……

      1. Hey Ani,
        “Sheep are led, goats are driven.” I read that quote years ago and unfortunately don’t remember the author to give proper attribution. That being said, I am a sheep and my shepherd is the Lord Jesus Christ. In my view I beleive Christians to be sheep following their Shepherd. All others i regard as goats. They are driven by fear, lies and other non Christian or worldly influences. Baaah

        1. @BWL

          Would just like to request that there be recognition that not all non-Christians are evil, “driven by fear, lies and other non Christian or worldly influences’. As a Jew, a socially conservative and non-leftist one, I don’t think I’m driven by fear, lies etc. I respect committed Christians and would ask that Christians respect us and others who are of a different faith. It sometimes makes reading the comments here difficult for me. Just saying.

          1. Ani, I am glad that you are here, and wish you the best. Since I sincerely believe that Yeshua is the Messiah, I hope that you someday find refuge in Him. But I value you and your contribution to the blog, and will continue to wish you the best whether or not that occurs.

          2. @ The Novice

            I’ve thought for a few days over if I wished to reply to what you just said here to me. Decided that I would. I don’t think you know how offensive it is to Jews when Christians try to force their theology on us. Over the years, so many Jews have been forcibly converted by Christians(and Muslims) or killed for refusing to do so or just for the “crime” of just being Jewish. I have absolutely no problem with your deep faith and beliefs. I DO have a problem with your telling me that I’m not OK the way I am, an adherent to the religion that’s the base of yours, the religion of my ancestors. And that in your eyes, only if I desert Judaism by believing in Jesus as the messiah, which I certainly don’t, am I doing the right thing. So that is deeply offensive. I would never ever suggest to any Christian, Moslem, Buddhist, etc that their religion is wrong and they should convert to Judaism. I was raised to respect people of faith of all religions. Please give Jews that simple courtesy as well.

          3. Ani,

            Thank you for taking the time to reply to my message. I am deeply sorry that I have been offensive. It gives me great sorrow that people have suffered thousands of years of unjust persecution just for being Jewish. I do not wish to add to that pain in any way. I believe in freedom of conscience, and deplore any and all attempts at forced conversion.

            You state, “I would never ever suggest to any Christian, Moslem, Buddhist, etc. that their religion is wrong and they should convert to Judaism”. Depending on the belief system upon which that thought is it based, it could be either kind or uncaring. If someone believes that the object of one’s faith does not matter, then it is kind not to disturb others’ peace of mind by talking about such objects of faith. But if my Moslem friends, for example, sincerely believe that my future happiness depends on converting to Islam, then I hope that they care enough about me to at least hope in their hearts that I will convert. So perhaps you can find it in your heart to forgive me, since my words were an attempt at good will although they were awkwardly expressed.

            In any case, I wish you the best in every way, will try to be less offensive in the future, and will not revisit this topic with you unless you wish to do so.

        2. BWL: I find your comments a touch offensive, just as you feel we Jews are misled , I disagree with you , but let’s get along , if you feel free to preach your belief. Then so be it I’ll tell you mine , and you will get mad at me , funny how the same book can be interpreted differently, some of us were raised reading the old text in the original language ,
          Not trying to start a problem here , but prevent one

        3. BWL ,,,,,,,,i find your comments a touch offensive ,just as you feel we Jews are mislead ,i disagree with you , but lets get along , if you feel free to preach your belief. Then so be it I’ll tell you mine , and you will get mad at me , funny how the same book can be interpreted differently, some of us were raised reading the old text in the original language ,
          Not trying to start a problem here , but prevent one

    2. I pray that there are many who will not lay down and take it, but I believe you are right and that many will bend instead of standing firm. My wife and I have agreed we will NOT take it, nor will our son.

    3. Part of the argument for measures to slow the spread of the virus is that lots of people will die from non-virus causes if hospitals are overwhelmed with treating Covid cases.

      Not just from lack of beds but from supplies also. E.g, surgeons breathing infection into open wounds of car wreck victims because no masks are available. Or exhausted doctors making mistakes from lack of sleep.

    4. “I’d tell you how I really feel but it would be unpublishable on a civil website like our beloved SurvivalBlog. ”

      Saint, You are dear to my heart. Your last line gave me a hearty laugh. Blessings to you this coming week, Krissy

    5. Sorry St. Funogas your request to get infected is about is about 3 months too late. My wife had it and it took her about 3 weeks to recover. 3 days of the 3 weeks were are bit tense. She had body aches, fever, and shortness of breath for the duration. She still worked remotely and felt that keeping somewhat active helped her get over the COVID. I tried to get it from her but I never got any symptoms. Our daughter never got any symptoms either. She did get sick but that was completely my fault. I didn’t check the expiration date on something I gave her to eat. The biggest problem with the COVID is that there is too much incorrect information, too many lies, and too much money to be made from a vaccine to believe just about anything about the COVID. I just put my faith in God and keep doing what I do and let the chips fall where they may.

      1. Hey Guy, I’ll get my request in sooner next time! I’m always a day late and a dollar short. I assume you and your daughter got tested and found out you were symptomless carriers? Based on what I know about my own immune system and needing to take 5 sick days during my working years, I’m expecting to be symptomless when I finally get it, or a mild case at best. If not, and I end up at death’s door, I’ll post it on SB. I’d hate to deprive people of their chance to say, “We told you so!!” 🙂

        I hope your wife is back to normal and doing well.

    6. Our governor, Michigan, just informed us last week that we will remain in lockdown until the vaccine is available and widely distributed across the state. She stopped just short of saying the vaccine will be mandated, but probably only because she hasn’t figured out how she’s going to manage that one. We are trying to gather enough signatures here to repeal the law she is using to justify her dictates, but my husband and I are looking at options to get the heck out of here. It will mean giving up the best paying job he’s ever had, but we will manage. It would be nice to get back out west near our family anyway.

      2. I also live in Michigan. I thoroughly hate the Dictator Whitmer’s abuse of power. Have you noticed that she can’t keep the smile off of her face as she issues her latest draconian dictate. She’s absolutely giddy with her power. She has granted herself the authority to extend her “emergency powers” into infinity.

        I would like to ask the Democrats, in Lansing, if they would be so complacent and obliging if a Republican governor was exercising the same dictatorial powers. I’m guessing they would not. Our Republican legislature should write a bill to reign in Gretchen’s seemingly endless power. Make her veto the bill. Do it over and over again until the citizens here recognize she plans to be “Dictator for Life”. Sadly, I don’t see that happening. Too bad, there would be a Republican sweep in Lansing if they did.

        The Republicans running to replace Democrats in the State house and State senate should run on reigning in her dictatorship. None of what she has done has lawful authority. Governors do not write laws, only legislatures do. Our legislature has had nothing to do with any of her unlawful dictates.

        As an aside; have you seen any Biden/Harris yard signs? The only signs I have seen are on the local Democratic club and the regional UAW office. Where I live is a Democratic stronghold, yet the only signs I have seen so far are for TRUMP, and there are a lot of them. OOPS!!

      3. Kimberly… Praying for your safe delivery from Michigan to a new location — better in every way, and may you and your husband prosper in ways you might not yet have imagined!

  16. The cotton masks that we wear do not prevent the virus from being inhaled. Even if the mask were to stop 10%-20% or even 50% of the virus more than enough will be inhaled to infect you. Tests have shown that you only need 7-15 virus organisms to become infected. The virus is so tiny that you could place a million of them on the point of a pin. You cannot stop them with cloth.

    The purpose of the mask and the reason it is mandated is so that the authorities “appear” to be doing something to stop the spread. The scientists and experts know this. You won’t see health care workers in an infectious ward wearing a simple cloth mask. The worst part about the mask is that it gives the wearer a false confidence and they do more risky things.

    1. It is not an Either -Or situation — it is a range of probabilities. If you are within 1 foot of a sick person with neither of you wearing a mask then your probability of catching the virus might be 90 percent, for example. If you are 6 feet away then the probability might drop to 10%. At 10 feet it might be 2 percent. Those are just examples.

      So if the mask cuts the viruses being exhaled by the sick person by 50% and screens out 50% of the viruses being inhaled by a well person then that might be enough to keep a percentage of people from getting sick and dying who otherwise would have died.

      I concur with you that people should not act as if the mask is an infallible shield. But I also think people should not bet big on filling an inside straight in poker games. Play the odds.

      1. Good perspective, Don Williams… I would add and reiterate that appropriate masks worn appropriately are also important. Although the ubiquitous paper masks may offer some very very very limited amount of protection, masks designed to prevent viral transmission do actually provide significant protection. Also protective eye wear and face shields and gloves.

      2. It is not as simple as that. If you breathe in the droplets or microdroplets that an infected person breathed/coughed out the you WILL become infected. It does not matter if you have a mask and 20% of the droplets were caught in the mask. It does not matter that you were standing 6 feet away when you breathed in the virus. It does not matter if you were around that person for 30 seconds or 10 minutes. That is the problem with understand statistics; it seems to imply something that isn’t true. A cloth mask used as a water filter to filter contaminated water may filter out 10%. One “might” interpret that to mean it decrease your chance of getting sick when you drink the water by 10%. It does not! Your chance of getting sick is still 100% even though you only ingested 90% of the infected water.

        This is a game of semantics that most people aren’t aware they are playing. But I can assure you that the experts know the facts.

        If you have a mask on and by some great good luck the mask filters out all the virus some will still enter your eyes and you will get the virus. Again the experts know this. They don’t go into infectious areas without eye protection. So why don’t they recommend that everyone wear eye protect too in addition to the masks??? Because they know that is a bridge too far and the people would revolt. So the only conclusion is that since masks don’t work and 6 feet of social distancing doesn’t work there has to be another reason for them mandating these things.

        1. One Guy,
          When out in public I always wear a mask, goggles and gloves, and I wear them effectively because this is how I have done it (and more gear) for 31 years at my job in critical care. You are right in saying most people would revolt if being told to wear goggles also. But if you want to be as cautious as you can, wear goggles. There are articles stating this. At least wearing a mask is better than nothing, and depending on the type does decrease your risk for infection.
          I have worked with hundreds/probably thousands of very infectious patients over the years, many on ventilators with procedures that increase secretions to become aerosolized, and to date I’m still here, having never caught anything serious yet.
          I absolutely believe in the science of PPE’s!! Most important to learn proper wear of PPE’s.

        2. @ One Guy

          I don’t actually think this is so. I think there is more of a dose-reponse curve at work here. If you are exposed to very little of the virus, your body can likely just eliminate it right away; our immune system does this all the time. If you are exposed to higher amounts then it depends on factors such as your overall health. I’d guess that the reason a number of young medical folks got the virus and died from it is that they were exposed to really high levels due to inadequate PPE’s while treating patients plus were likely not getting enough sleep, eating poorly etc due to the stress of dealing with the crisis in the hospitals.

          This is also why I suspect that it has been found that there is little likelihood of transmittal via the mail, packages and other items that we touch. The person who had it would have to have directly deposited a large quantity of the virus onto the item such as sneezing or coughing on your mail. You’d then have to have touched it soon after in order that enough of the virus was still alive and then stuck your finger in your nose or eyes. So a number of actions have to happen soon after each other in order to have transmittal this way.

  17. Today I’m prepping with a yard sale. Less clutter, more cash. I also started working with a trainer to improve self-defense skills and get in better shape.

    Yes, the covid exists and some people will die.

    But it isn’t the bubonic plague, or Ebola, or the Andromeda Strain, yet government officials, the media (legacy and social), and public health officials are carrying on as if it is. Millions are impoverished because they have been cynically and insultingly deemed “nonessential.” (I’m very grateful to still be working.) Now I can learn firsthand about a depression; my grandparents told me about the last one.

    The real problem is that government has once again destroyed its credibility. If there ever is an outbreak of something truly lethal, no one will listen and many really will die.

    Our great country has gone crazy. In Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, Pyongyang, and Mexico City, leaders are celebrating. I honestly think that many on the left would prefer foreign invasion and occupation over another term for President Trump. Some, such as those in Portland and Seattle, might actually be willing to serve as auxiliary troops or sleeper cells for foreign powers.

    Keep on prepping. I enjoy reading everyone’s comments.

  18. Thanks to The Novice for this excellent article, the sharing of thoughts, and for encouraging SB readers to engage in the ongoing conversation about SARS-COV-2 and COVID-19.

    Getting through this pandemic is going to be a long hard slog, but we can get to the other side of it, and we can protect the lives of many people along the way. We do not have to give up our beliefs about liberty or freedom (or the reasoned practice of these) in order to understand the nature of a virus (and to respond responsibly for the sake of all).

    I would add this for all those of us who are Christian Believers. Faith and science are not separate (no matter what Leftists say). These are inextricably linked. We need not give up or compromise Faith in order to understand and engage science.

    1. Telesilla of Argos, WELL SAID! I actually did a college paper on “Faith vs Science”. This was back in the day when mentioning one’s faith was acceptable and not a “tar and feather event” in college.

      While i do believe in personally wearing masks (due to a high risk family member), I do not believe in the “government mandates”, nor will we take a “vaccine” if/when it becomes available.

      One small thought keeps swirling in my head (and it really comes to the forefront on discussions like this). With so much going on in the world, within the US, are we going to let a “mask question” tear us apart? We already have racial, political, economic things that are literally destroying our country! I know we will never have a “singing kumbaya (sp?)” moment in this country but this community, our SB community, should be different.

      We all have an opinion. We all have the God given right of Free Speech. I am very thankful for this community as we learn from each other. However, we also need to “respect” everyone’s opinion. While some folks may wear a mask to make a “social statement” or are “followers” like some have mentioned on this discussion, I truly believe that most folks who wear the masks are doing it out of caution for others, not necessarily for their “own protection”.

      Vickie made a good point earlier – We are a “family” here in this community. We will have discussions, disagreements, but in the end, by all of us pulling together and helping, encouraging each other, we will make it to the other side.

  19. You will see this Covid thing go away after the election if the Dems get in
    Or you will have to take the shot to buy,sale,trade
    With mail in voting they most likely will
    This country is done with if they do
    Who will want to start a business if you are going to pay 90% tax rate ect.
    Smoke and Mirrors people that all it is

    1. @ RED

      1) The virus and deaths won’t go away but the responsibility will. In my opinion, the Democrat News Media has been extremely dishonest in covering this story.

      2) The massive failure in handling this was in New York City — with only 2.5% of the US population, it had about 33% of the deaths from this virus in March and April. Public Health is a local and state responsibility — yet the Washington Post and others were PRAISING Democrat Governor Cuomo for his failure.

      While refusing to give the FACTS showing New York City’s massive failure and creation of a massive Covid Petri Dish infecting the rest of the USA as scared residents fled to escape death.

      3) Similarly, they treat Tom Friedman, Obama’s former Director of the Center for Disease Control , as some kind of medical demigod whenever he criticizes Trump. Yet Friedman almost let Ebola loose here in the USA because of totally inadequate guidelines for protective equipment and he used up 89 million N95 masks without replenishing the stockpile. And if CDC is incompetent it is because of Friedman ran it for 8 years.

      I have no problem with my fellow Americans who are Democrats —but I think they are being conned and lied to by the Democrat leadership and the leaders News Media allies.

  20. Unfortunately, our leaders like being in front of the television, projecting how smart they are, even if they know nothing about the subject.

    They then try to out do each other.

    I honestly don’t believe most medical …………… people because they are following the benjamins.

    I don’t trust the medical industry, for those of you who watch TV, Trulicity was advertised as wonderful, Trulicity is for diabetics. It was first advertised as wonderful, ask someone who is a diabetic who has taken it. Now they advertise that it may cause kidney problems. Hello!!!, many diabetics already have kidney problems.
    They got it past the corrupt FDA (surprising it didn’t show up as a problem in the test subjects….NOT), and now the general public is having problems!

    Look up Vioxx, if you are relatively young.

    It will be a cold day in he** before I take the vaccine for this virus.

    The flu virus vaccine “The first vaccine for influenza was developed in 1938 and given to U.S. soldiers during World War II. A 1944 study of the new influenza vaccine determined that, while helpful in reducing illness with a temperature above 99 degrees F, it did not appear to have an impact on clinical outcomes. In 1947, further evaluation of the influenza vaccine found no difference in health outcomes between those who were vaccinated and those who were not vaccinated.3 4 From nvic.org

    Modern medicine has been selling us vaccine for the flu since 1941, Let’s say 80 years, they haven’t been successful yet.

    I’ve come late to the party but we are slowly making progress.

    Get strength from the Lord.

  21. Wow, this is not a difference of opinion, it’s facts versus opinions. First, the infection rate is approximately 17% and we have known that since the Diamond Princess in February. Secondly, the science is clear and unequivocal; masks do not work to attenuate viral transmission, PERIOD. MY GOD. If this is a new strain and we are all at risk why are so many people unaffected and/ or asymptomatic? 17 percent, that’s all. Because there is a mechanism in many people that essentially make them immune to differing degrees. The vectors, all along have been hospitals, care workers and seeding of nursing care facilities. Singapore is another instance, wash your hands, not masks, that what worked. You see all the numbers rolling over now, why? If 10X the number of positives are or have been infected then we have reached herd immunity. Lastly, the human body has viruses on it and in it all the time. A test that notoriously gives false positives being used on those with no symptoms is unprecedented as is saying someone has this with no symptoms. The results of lockdowns, masks, and distancing will exceed the virus by thousands of times.

        1. 1) Michael Z Williamson is a science fiction writer, not a doctor. So I focused on the articles he cited.

          2) The first article, by John Hardie, BDS, MSc, PhD, FRCDC, was a sceptical view of the evidence for surgical masks as used in the practice of dentistry. The article dates from October 2016 and cites studies from 2009 to 2015.

          3) Hardie argues that those studies question whether there is scientific evidence for the utility of surgical masks. But the source he cites multiple times — Ref 4 Medpage 2009 article “Unmasking the Surgical Mask: Does It Really Work?” — actually undermines Hardie’s argument.

          https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/infectioncontrol/16278

          Citing the article Hardie states
          “Dr. R. MacIntyre, a proponent of this trend in infection control, has used her research findings to boldly state that, “it would not seem justifiable to ask healthcare workers to wear surgical masks.” ”

          4) But MacIntyre based this opinion on the results of a study she did in a Chinese hospital and what she actually reported is that N95 prevented 75% of respiratory infections in medical staff whereas surgical masks didn’t seem to make a difference.

          5) Medpage notes that another study in Canada came to a completely opposite conclusion — that surgical masks were effective. Hardie does not note this.

          6) Nor does Hardie note Dr MacIntyre’s opinion re PUBLIC use of surgical masks , based on results in Hong Kong of masks as protection from flu:

          “However, the only high-level evidence for efficacy of masks in the community was a trial from Hong Kong — published online last month in the Annals of Internal Medicine — involving flu patients who were randomized to hand hygiene alone or in combination with surgical masks.

          Compared with controls, employing hand hygiene alone or with face masks tended to reduce transmission of the flu to those living in the same house, but not significantly so.

          However, when these interventions were initiated within 36 hours of symptom onset, face masks plus hand hygiene reduced risk of transmission by a very significant 67%.

          Although the entire benefit can’t be attributed to face masks, the results suggest masks may make a difference, MacIntyre said.

          Because exposure to pathogens is typically much lower for the general public than for healthcare workers, “surgical masks may be enough in the community,” she said.

          Rupp agreed, saying he takes a “better safe than sorry” approach. His medical center asks patients with potentially droplet-mediated infections to put on a surgical mask.

          “There probably isn’t a whole lot of extensive study on the use of this in clinical situation,” Rupp said. “We do think it’s a pretty obvious way somebody can go about containing their secretions.”

          N95 masks would likely provide even more protection, MacIntyre said, but there’s is fairly clear consensus that they would be intolerable for someone with a respiratory illness.”

          7) As Telesilla noted above, medical findings have a specific context and you have to read the articles in detail to see the limitations of the reported conclusions.

          8) However, I am studying the rest of Hardie’s citations — and the other articles citesd by Williamson.

          9) I do think Hardie’s opinions are molded by his dentistry experience in Canada. For example, he says

          “Comprehensive details on the defence mechanisms of the respiratory tract will not be discussed. Instead readers are reminded that; coughing, sneezing, nasal hairs, respiratory tract cilia, mucous producing lining cells and the phagocytic activity of alveolar macrophages provide protection against inhaled foreign bodies including fungi, bacteria and viruses.”

          10) I don’t think any of the Doctors Without Borders who treat Ebola patients would depend upon that defense. They have elaborate protections against Ebola including masks. In contrast, we almost had Ebola escape here in the USA due to CDC taking a more cavalier approach.

          https://www.doctorswithoutborders.ca/article/democratic-republic-congo-msf-hands-over-ebola-response-activities-after-two-month-emergency

  22. The author never mentioned vitamin D and only one commenter out of dozens mentioned it at all. I am convinced high levels of D will help reduce the severity of symptoms. I take 500 units of D3 along with K2 to help increase my levels and also go outside for 20 minutes a day when the UV index is above 3. I also use a hepa filter at home and take my shoes off at the door,etc.

  23. Put your trust in Jesus: Romans 13: 12 ” The night is almost gone, and the day is near. Therefore let us lay aside the deeds of darkness and put on the armor of light”!

  24. Media and government told us a scary story . We wanted to trust them. Surely they would tell us the truth . They didn’t.

    Stop parroting the nonsense you hear on the Nightly News. Go outside and look at the world with your own two eyes. We’re being lied to. There is no “pandemic”.

    Have driven from the east coast out to the west coast and back. The only thing happening is a systematic agenda to destroy the country. Why ? I don’t know.

    But something evil comes this way . Prepare accordingly.

    2. Sirlancelot

      Do you actually believe people are dying all over the world to sabotage the re election of Trump??? That’s madness, I already know too many people who have died or become infected with Covid.

      If we really want to get over this pandemic we need to stop politicizing it.

      1. “Do you actually believe people are dying all over the world to sabotage the re election of Trump??? That’s madness,”
        If Sirlancelot had actually said that, I agree, that would be madness. However, he did not say that, did he.

        “If we really want to get over this pandemic we need to stop politicizing it.”
        I couldn’t agree more. However, it’s not the folks here that are politicizing this “pandemic”. You need to look at literally the entirety of the Democrat Party to see who is actually politicizing this “pandemic”. You need to look at the likes of Gretchen Whitmer, Andrew Cuomo, Bill the commie De Blasio, Moronic Murphy in New Jersey, and to be fair and balanced, Dimwit DeWine in Ohio, to see who is actually politicizing this “pandemic”. Let’s define politicization as the process of seeking unlimited political power.

        While we’re at it, we might want to take a look at all the folks at the NIH, FDA, CDC, and NAIAD that stand to become part of the mega-rich with their associations with Giliad, Moderna, and all the other Big Pharma companies frantically trying to bring a dangerous, untested vaccine to market. We also might want to look and all the good front-line doctors and nurses who are being forcefully silenced, simply because they are trying to tell of their REAL WORLD experience using Hydroxycloroquine, Azithromyacin, and Zinc, to end the virus and it’s devastating effects. Let’s not forget the REAL WORLD doctors who are using other effective means, starting with IV vitamin C, to control and even end the virus, Dr. David Brownstein and Dr Joseph Mercola come to mind. Oh and let’s not forget the use of political force by Mark Zuckerburg, Jack Dorcey, Sundar Pichai, and a host of others to silence anyone who has an opinion that doesn’t conform to the dictates of the WHO, the CDC, bill Gates, and, of course, Anthony Fauci. Fauci is one who stands to become one of the mega-rich if the virus doesn’t end too soon. So, of course, we can’t let the virus run it’s course, and end too soon, can we.

        Sars-CoV-2 (I’m done calling it CoViD-19) is being politicized, but it’s not us that are politicizing it.

        By the way: “I believe you are confusing money sucking insurance companies, hospitals, the government, big pharma and everybody else who has their hands in medicine to make a buck with Covid.”

        Now you and I are on the same page, follow the money.

    1. Hi Scott M, I am not a medical professional. I am just trying to make sense of the information available to me, because I need to make decisions for myself and my family. If you have information I should be aware of, I would love to hear it.

  27. Covid 19 is a big scam. My wife and I had it in March and spent 3 days in the hospital. The hospital tried billing our insurance and us for all this extra cash. After 4 months, I told Blue Cross (the investigator was great) to see if there were any payments made by the federal govt in our names and lo and behold…..the appeal was granted. We don’t have to pay a huge deductible. Imagine that.

    1. Dan,
      I’m glad you both are ok, consider yourselves lucky, more than some I have seen. I believe you are confusing money sucking insurance companies, hospitals, the government, big pharma and everybody else who has their hands in medicine to make a buck with Covid.
      Covid is real and to the unlucky ones can be devastating.

      1. Another important reminder, TXnurse… Thank you. For some people, the outcomes are devastating. …and while we may have ideas about some of the more obvious risk factors, not everyone’s risk is readily apparent on the surface. For reasons not necessarily well understood, some people who appear to be otherwise healthy are not faring well in the face of this illness. Remember the young man whose last words referred to his having contracted the infection at a COVID party: “I think I made a mistake.”

        https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/article/Man-dies-at-Texas-hospital-after-attending-COVID-15404765.php

        Taking precautions does not have to be difficult, and can save many more lives than people might imagine.

  28. Not a doctor, never was.
    Is the virus real? I don’t know. I also haven’t seen any actual scientific studies that prove it exists. (i.e. isolated it and electron microscope pictures from multiple subjects)
    It has been proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that the PCR tests are virtually worthless. They can pick up any coronavirus, even from the common cold.
    The overreaction by governments worldwide is insane. They have literally shut down entire economies. Except Sweden and a few others.
    Some say that was the intention. Was it?
    Just my two cents

  29. I can tell you this. I am a retired HS principal, certainly not an expert in medicine, nor science in any way. That being said, every year while I was involved with education, I was sick two to three times with colds and/or the “bug of the year.” I have been retired six years and have not been sick once since I left that profession. Make of that what you will!

    1. John Owens,

      LOL John, I couldn’t agree with you more, I did a stint years ago as a school nurse, and I was sick all the time. Never got that sick even once working in ICU for many years. Children are Petri dishes just waiting to grow on you! The real fake news is that you can’t catch this from kids!

  30. Ok second post ON THIS issue I have read through all of the others
    This is what I have come up with
    I am not a Doctor but my wife is
    She has seen people with this is it real YES
    Does it kill people YES
    Do I think the Dems started this to win the office NO
    Do I think they are playing it for what they can get YES
    Do I think hospitals are making big money off this YES TEST EVERY ONE
    The wife is also Health Commissioner for are city we will see at the end of the year of what people died from COVID or ECT.
    Will we ever know the real death rate NO
    Will we know how meany have it NO
    Will they tell you a number YES is it real do not know I guess depends on what channel you watch
    Do mask work No /YES Covid can get through it / But makes people fill better
    We have all this info and not two people can come together on this issue
    So what does this tell me
    If you believe in GOD then pray
    If you do not want to wear a mask DON’T or not up to you just do not make me wear it to make yourself fill good
    Sweden has done nothing about this Covid and they are doing pretty good
    The one that will get me is when they say YOU HAVE TO TAKE THE Vaccine
    or else
    Then it is the time to worry

  32. Well, I guess I’ll chime in. I was in California visiting family in November and December. I have cancer so obviously immune compromised. I spent time with my 6 little grandchildren, all my children and their spouses, most of which have very public facing jobs. I had to travel there by car, so stayed in hotels to and from Idaho. I have an elderly mother, 85. I have two sisters who also are severely immune compromised. There were lots of additional guests at the Christmas day gathering. Had not heard of COVID-19, but I took my usual precautions and even went a step further by not participating in the family buffet where approximately 10-15 little children were helping themselves to the food (germy little fingers). I didn’t want to offend the host about the food, so I just excused myself due to being over tired and went to bed very early. Little kids are petri dishes and I’ve always gotten sick when the little kids were sick, so I am especially cautious around them. I discreetly sanitize doorknobs, handles, and wash my hands constantly, avoid slobby face kisses, etc. I carry hand sanitizer in my purse and have for years. I don’t touch my face especially when I’m out and about. I caught a mild cold with a sore throat and treated myself with vitamin C, lots of herbal teas (Mullein is my favorite if I feel a chest cold coming on), lemon juice, homemade organic chicken soup, etc. I recovered in about a week with no serious issues.

    All that to say… I take responsibility for myself – always. I don’t expect the world to stop for me. I am grateful that none of my family members have died. None have even been sick and we were all exposed. California probably had a huge number of cases before they even knew it was COVID-19 due to the enormous China travelers coming in and out of the state. They probably reached “herd immunity” before the other states.

    I was one of the “mask makers” when all this started. I shipped boxes filled with masks, hand sanitizers, vitamin C, gloves, etc etc to everyone in my family. But, I knew after reading many peer reviewed medical papers, that the masks were more of an emotional thing, than an effective thing. If it made people feel better to wear ill fitting cloth masks, so be it. The only effective masks are N95 respirators and even then, they must be fitted properly. I also discovered that the cloth masks can reduce oxygen intake by 27%, which explained to me why I felt breathless when I tried to wear one anywhere. So, while I just finished making more masks, I don’t wear them. I think they’re silly, frankly, and I’m rather stunned at how many people are wearing them, even in places where they aren’t mandated. We didn’t do this for H1N1 and way more people died from that. In fact, during that virus, I was traveling all over the country and didn’t contract it.

    To me it’s super simple: If you’re sick, stay home. wAsh YoUr HaNds. Employ personal hygiene. Don’t get in people’s faces. Take personal responsibility.

    I think the virus has been politicized because it’s an election year. I think the mask mandates are foolish. I think shutting down the economy was reckless and put way more people at risk than the virus.
    That is all. LOL

    2. Thank you SaraSue. Well said. I truly believe that we are going to need to take personal responsibility, recognize if we are likely more at risk and adapt accordingly. I see so much blind wearing of masks, even stupid bandanas or gaiters that do nothing around here. Not to mention all of the mask wearing with the nose exposed as they can’t breathe otherwise; what good does that do? People wearing masks in their yards. people wearing masks driving their car. Craziness. I figure they are all living with low O2 levels which is why they vote as they do here!

      I get a sore throat the day after wearing a mask if I have to wear one for any significant length of time. The mask fanatics tell me “it’s all in my head”. No it’s not. I try to avoid as much as possible going into stores here now or any venue where I have to wear a mask which is pretty much everything but gun stores which leave it up to their customers and workers as to what they want to do(so I see some workers and some customers masked and some not).

  33. Hyrdroxychloroquine has been proven effective for Cov 19. It is an older, FDA approved medicine for autoimmune diseases and malaria an very inexpensive, as a treatment and as a preventative, yet the moment Pres. Trump mentioned that he was taking it, the government locked it down. Physicians who have spoken out for the use of this drug have been blocked on social media. Almost all the states deny physicians from prescribing it and allow pharmacists to refuse to dispense it per their discretion. The gov of Ohio, Gov. DeWine, has removed the restrictions on it so people in Ohio can have access to it. Please contact your governor to ask that he/she remove all restrictions on this drug for hydroxychloroquine for Cov 19 use. Tell them the news is out, it works, and our freedoms are being infringed on and people are dying without it. Schools and work could open up and our economy could prosper if we the people had access to it. Please contact your governor to remove all restrictions on use of this drug for cov 19.

  34. “LISTEN TO THE SCIENCE!!!” That’s all I hear being harped by the MSM. OK, “scientists,” explain the “science” of denying people the right to go to church, but not denying them the “right” to go to the casinos!… Explain how it’s “hazardous” for people to go to polling places, but not to Wal-Mart, or, again, the casinos. This whole thing is about CONTROL. Yes; the virus is real, but so is its political manipulation!

    The masks… Suddenly, according to the “scientists,” the best mask you can wear, aside from an N95, which is no longer available unless you’re “essential,” is the stupid, homemade kind, made from whatever material, by whatever person. Believe this, and P.T. Barnum has a name for you…

  36. Novice,

    Great article. Well thought out. Great questions. Solid skepticism. The answers are out there, as is the truth. I would be interested to see a followup article, in a month or so, that spells out your conclusions on what the truth really is. Good job!

  37. Was cough on in a check out line on March 11 ,,,March 15 came down with C 19 ,was some sort of hell , as of August 15 still having reminders ,used Ivermectin but late in the game it worked ,,also take vitamin D3 all winter ,all neighbors have had it to closest is 1/2mile ,know of two that have died , we still mask ,i don’t want it a second time ,

    1. Take good care, Oldhomesteader. It’s good to see your post here, and I am ever thankful for news of your progress — even in the face of the lingering effects of Round 1 with COVID-19. Stay clear of this one. No need to battle through Round 2.

      News says that President Trump has an announcement related to therapeutics, and we should have that this evening. I’ll be watching for word with great interest — and hope for all of us!

  38. I suspect there are different levels of agony in hell. If that’s true then Lon Horiuchi will likely spend eternity in the worst one. He may stay hidden while here on earth but someday he WILL stand before God and give an account for the murders he has committed. Then on the other hand he may have already repented before a forgiving God and his sins have been washed away. Or maybe he will at some point in his life. As a Christian I have to hope that he makes things right with God.

  39. I ask this question to everyone:

    How long will you stay scared?

    And the math on masks does not add up. N95 (the best mask) stops particles 3 nanometer particle. CV is < 1 nanometer.

    It reminds me of people who camp who think the nylon tent will protect them from the wild creatures.

  40. Medical article at

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16602356/

    “Conclusions: As with many interventions intended to prevent ill health, the effectiveness of parachutes has not been subjected to rigorous evaluation by using randomised controlled trials. Advocates of evidence based medicine have criticised the adoption of interventions evaluated by using only observational data. We think that everyone might benefit if the most radical protagonists of evidence based medicine organised and participated in a double blind, randomised, placebo controlled, crossover trial of the parachute.”

    I.e, Critics of masks jump out of airplanes without parachutes while advocates jump out with parachutes. Statistical analysis of whether parachutes help to be performed at ground level.

    2. With all due respect, only an idiot would need rigorous evaluation by using randomized controlled trials to see if the basic laws of nature that were working yesterday are still working today.

      I’ve never seen rigorous evaluation using randomized controlled trials on what happens when a trout decides to lay on the beach for 8 hours to get a tan instead of hanging out in the water with his pals.

      I’ve never seen rigorous evaluation using randomized controlled trials on whether or not cats really do have nine lives.

      I’ve never seen rigorous evaluation using randomized controlled trials on what happens when you take a chain saw and cut completely through the trunk of a tree.

      I’ve never seen rigorous evaluation using randomized controlled trials on whether politicians would ever let a crisis go to waste or not.

      You get the idea. The article was probably plagiarized from The Onion. Their conclusion was, “Advocates of evidence based medicine have criticized the adoption of interventions evaluated by using only observational data.” The problem with this approach is that all too often, the wrong conclusions are reached. I wish I had the citation but I read it long before the internet was invented. The writers went to a feedlot and noticed that the deeper the manure was, the fewer plants there were. They did an entire write up for publication just like this article you cited, concluding that the deeper manure got, the less plants were able to survive. Excellent conclusions based o the observations according to what you cited. Therefore, “the adoption of interventions evaluated by using only observational data” would lead us to believe that if we “adopt interventions” such as using a front-end loader to remove manure, then plant life would soon return. Great idea except for the minor detail that the conclusion reached based on the observational data were 100% wrong. Any first-year FFA student could have told them the deeper the manure, the higher the bovine population in that part of the feedlot. The higher the bovine population, the less likely any morsels of food in the form of plant life are going to survive long. The article was tongue in cheek but underscores the idea that making important decisions based only on observational data is not the best way to go about things. The data it is too easily misinterpreted and politicized, and all too often conclusions are reached based on what the people financially backing the study want the researchers to discover.

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