Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today,  another look at the Swiss Watch market. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Radomski: The Most Important Analogy for the Markets, Including Gold.

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Neils Christensen: The gold market has a big hill to climb as prices lose 3% after hitting all-time highs.

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The world’s largest silver producers in Q3 2023 – report.

Economy & Finance:

At Zero Hedge: US Bank Deposit Outflows Continue To Surge As Regional ‘Stress’ Accelerates.

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Broadcom cuts at least 2,800 VMware jobs following $69 billion acquisition. JWR’s Comments: Broadcom is reportedly demoting lots of VMWare vice presidents to “Manager” level (with corresponding 20% or more pay cuts), and seems intent on laying off everyone but the company’s Brain Trust. Morale is in the dumpster. I’ve read that 60% of VMWare’s Austin, Texas office employees were laid off.  According to a VMWare employee forum, their headcount is expected to shrink from 35,000 to around 16,000 by 2025. More analysis of the acquisition has been published here: VMware layoffs (and other cuts) start as Broadcom takes over. Also, see the interesting comments at TheLayoff.com.

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Linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Jobs numbers “implode” as job openings plunge 800,000 on the month. Wall Street Journal thinks it’s bad.

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Mortgage Rates Forecast For 2024: When Will Rates Finally Come Down?

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Congress, by the power of taxation, by that of raising an army, and by their control over the militia, have the sword in one hand, and the purse in the other. Shall we be safe without either? Congress have an unlimited power over both: they are entirely given up by us. Let him candidly tell me, where and when did freedom exist, when the sword and purse were given up from the people? Unless a miracle in human affairs interposed, no nation ever retained its liberty after the loss of the sword and purse. Can you prove, by any argumentative deduction, that it is possible to be safe without retaining one of these? If you give them up, you are gone.” – Patrick Henry, from Volume 3 of The Debates in the Several State Conventions

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — December 10, 2023

On December 10th, 1768, the first part of the first edition of the Encyclopædia Britannica, the oldest continuously published and revised work in the English language, was published and advertised for sale in Edinburgh.

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On this day in history, December 10, 1869, Wyoming was the first territory to grant women the right to vote

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 110 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  5. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  2. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC.
  4. Montana Survival Seed is providing a $225 gift code for any items on its website, including organic non-GMO seeds, fossils, 1812-1964 US silver, jewelry, botany books, and Montana beeswax.
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. A Berkey Light water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $305 value)
  2. A $300 gift certificate from Good2Goco.com, good for any of their products: Home freeze dryers, pressure canners, Country Living grain mills, Emergency Essentials foods, and much more.
  3. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  4. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $850,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 110 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

More Signs of a Potential China Syndrome

Introductory Note: This is an update to a topic that I’ve covered for several years. The gravity of the risk described cannot be overstated.

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The attention of the world’s financial press seems to have drifted away from incisive finance reporting on mainland China. Last year’s Evergrande and Kaisa crises briefly attracted considerable attention, but given the Chinese Communist Party’s typical press stonewalling, journalists naturally began to concentrate on other news. The media spotlight may have shifted, but the systemic risk in China has not subsided. There is still a huge risk of both a general banking collapse and a credit derivatives meltdown that could extend beyond China’s borders.Continue reading“More Signs of a Potential China Syndrome”

JWR’s Meme Of The Week:

The latest meme created by JWR:

Meme Text:

Why Is It That Liberals Proclaim “My Body, My Choice” On Abortion

But Also Demand That My Kids And I Be Vaccinated?

News Links:

Notes From JWR: Do you have a meme idea? Just e-mail me the concept, and I’ll try to assemble it. And if it is posted then I’ll give you credit. Thanks!

Permission to repost memes that I’ve created is granted, provided that credit to SurvivalBlog.com is included.

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Therefore being justified by faith, we have peace with God through our Lord Jesus Christ:

By whom also we have access by faith into this grace wherein we stand, and rejoice in hope of the glory of God.

And not only so, but we glory in tribulations also: knowing that tribulation worketh patience;

And patience, experience; and experience, hope:

And hope maketh not ashamed; because the love of God is shed abroad in our hearts by the Holy Ghost which is given unto us.

For when we were yet without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly.

For scarcely for a righteous man will one die: yet peradventure for a good man some would even dare to die.

But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us.

Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him.

For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.

And not only so, but we also joy in God through our Lord Jesus Christ, by whom we have now received the atonement.

Wherefore, as by one man sin entered into the world, and death by sin; and so death passed upon all men, for that all have sinned:

(For until the law sin was in the world: but sin is not imputed when there is no law.

Nevertheless death reigned from Adam to Moses, even over them that had not sinned after the similitude of Adam’s transgression, who is the figure of him that was to come.

But not as the offence, so also is the free gift. For if through the offence of one many be dead, much more the grace of God, and the gift by grace, which is by one man, Jesus Christ, hath abounded unto many.

And not as it was by one that sinned, so is the gift: for the judgment was by one to condemnation, but the free gift is of many offences unto justification.

For if by one man’s offence death reigned by one; much more they which receive abundance of grace and of the gift of righteousness shall reign in life by one, Jesus Christ.)

Therefore as by the offence of one judgment came upon all men to condemnation; even so by the righteousness of one the free gift came upon all men unto justification of life.

For as by one man’s disobedience many were made sinners, so by the obedience of one shall many be made righteous.

Moreover the law entered, that the offence might abound. But where sin abounded, grace did much more abound:

That as sin hath reigned unto death, even so might grace reign through righteousness unto eternal life by Jesus Christ our Lord.” – Romans 5 (KJV) 

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — December 9, 2023

On December 9, 1793, Noah Webster established New York’s first daily newspaper, the “American Minerva“.

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On December 9, 1315, the Swiss Woudsteden renewed the Eternal Covenant. (The Oath Society)

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On December 9, 1688 King James II‘s wife and son fled England for France, to help preserve the Stuart family.

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December 9th, 1914 was the birthday of Maximo Guillermo “Max” Manus. He was one of the few Norwegians who had the testicular fortitude to put his life on the line, fighting the Nazi occupiers. (There surely would have been more active resistance fighters, but fearing widespread reprisal executions by the Germans, King H7 asked the civilian populace to stand down.) Max Manus passed away in 1996. His exploits are fairly accurately shown in the movie Max Manus: Man of War.

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We are in need of entries for Round 110 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $850,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 110 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

For Your Bugout Bag: The Humble Sillcock Key

One often overlooked item for a bugout bag is a Sillcock Key. This handy little wrench will allow you to access tap water from commercial establishments that have “limited access” water spigots.  It is commonly called a Sillcock Key, Sillcock Wrench, or Sillcock Handle.

You often see “security” spigot taps on the exterior walls of restaurants, stores, school buildings, shopping malls, and warehouses. There are several different styles.  Some of them are “frost free”, and some are not. There are at least four different anti-tamper key patterns in common use in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Hence the need for a versatile key pattern design. Note that this tool is most apropos for urban or suburban bugout situations, rather than for bugouts in rural areas. But I’ve even seen a few Sillcock anti-tamper fixtures used at some farms, ranches, and middle-of-nowhere parks and campgrounds.

Notes on Safe and Legal Use

Take heed that exterior faucets are often used infrequently, so be sure to flush the line for a few seconds before filling water containers.

Note: The legality of accessing tap water in this way is questionable, so only resort to the use of a Sillcock key in genuine emergencies.

The cruciform type of Sillcock key that I bought for myself and a couple of my family members will actually fit six different sizes of valve fittings since the transverse center hole has a hexagonal lug on one side and a square lug on the other side. These are available quite inexpensively on eBay, for about $8 each.

Ersatz Knucks

I should also mention that the cruciform pattern Sillcock key also has another use that I’ve never seen mentioned, even in survivalist literature:  When grasped in your fist, one of these provides an ersatz brass knuckle effect. Position it with the smallest of the four key heads pointing outward, with two fingers on either side, for maximum effect. Surprise! and Ouch!  It is best directed at pressure points such as the solar plexus.

Consider keeping the humble Sillcock Key in your vehicular bugout bag, as “cheap insurance.” – JWR

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make both long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug-out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in the Odds ‘n Sods Column or in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

I came down with a cold last weekend. Whilst sick in bed, I took the opportunity to do some reading. My goal was to gather some Quotes Of The Day.  I stumbled into a treasure trove when I began to read The Debates in the Several State Conventions. (“….an influential early 19th century edition of key documents about the ratification of the US Constitution by the states.”) In the next week, you will be reading from a few of these founding fathers.

I bounced back from that cold fairly quickly.  Thankfully, I’m back to my regular chores and my regular writing/editing schedule.

Now, Lily’s report…

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“And Israel beheld Joseph’s sons, and said, Who are these?

And Joseph said unto his father, They are my sons, whom God hath given me in this place. And he said, Bring them, I pray thee, unto me, and I will bless them.

Now the eyes of Israel were dim for age, so that he could not see. And he brought them near unto him; and he kissed them, and embraced them.

And Israel said unto Joseph, I had not thought to see thy face: and, lo, God hath shewed me also thy seed.

And Joseph brought them out from between his knees, and he bowed himself with his face to the earth.

And Joseph took them both, Ephraim in his right hand toward Israel’s left hand, and Manasseh in his left hand toward Israel’s right hand, and brought them near unto him.

And Israel stretched out his right hand, and laid it upon Ephraim’s head, who was the younger, and his left hand upon Manasseh’s head, guiding his hands wittingly; for Manasseh was the firstborn.

And he blessed Joseph, and said, God, before whom my fathers Abraham and Isaac did walk, the God which fed me all my life long unto this day,

The Angel which redeemed me from all evil, bless the lads; and let my name be named on them, and the name of my fathers Abraham and Isaac; and let them grow into a multitude in the midst of the earth.

And when Joseph saw that his father laid his right hand upon the head of Ephraim, it displeased him: and he held up his father’s hand, to remove it from Ephraim’s head unto Manasseh’s head.

And Joseph said unto his father, Not so, my father: for this is the firstborn; put thy right hand upon his head.

And his father refused, and said, I know it, my son, I know it: he also shall become a people, and he also shall be great: but truly his younger brother shall be greater than he, and his seed shall become a multitude of nations.

And he blessed them that day, saying, In thee shall Israel bless, saying, God make thee as Ephraim and as Manasseh: and he set Ephraim before Manasseh.

And Israel said unto Joseph, Behold, I die: but God shall be with you, and bring you again unto the land of your fathers.

Moreover I have given to thee one portion above thy brethren, which I took out of the hand of the Amorite with my sword and with my bow.” – Genesis 48:8-22 (KJV) 

Preparedness Notes for Friday — December 8, 2023

On December 8, 2010, the American aerospace venture SpaceX became the first commercial company to release a spacecraft—the Dragon capsule—into orbit and successfully return it to Earth.

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On December 8, 1542, Mary, Queen of Scots was born, and six days later she became queen of Scotland.

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We are now in need of entries for Round 110 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $850,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 110 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

The SurvivalBlog – Old School (S.O.S.) Newsletter Plan

In response to requests from several long-time readers, we are developing the infrastructure to produce an “Old School” hardcopy mailed newsletter, starting in 2024. The concept is to be ready to revert to distributing a paper newsletter that is sent out by traditional mail, for if and when SurvivalBlog is expunged from the Internet’s World Wide Web. (“Taken down.”) I’ve dubbed this contingency project: SurvivalBlog – Old School (S.O.S.)

The infrastructure required to produce and distribute the S.O.S. Newsletter will include…

For grid up, but Internet-down situations:

  • A very sturdy desktop photocopier.
  • Dozens of reams Reams of paper.
  • Boxes of self-sealing legal-size envelopes
  • Boxes of Avery adhesive address labels. (#8160 – 1″ x 2-5/8″)
  • A recent-production Macbook (Already purchased.)
  • A laser printer. (Already purchased.)
  • Toner cartridges for photocopier.
  • Toner cartridges for desktop printer.
  • An IBM Selectric II correcting typewriter, circa 1978. (Already purchased.)
  • A pair of late 2008 production 15” Macbook laptop computers with pop panels for quickly-removable batteries and hard drives. (Already purchased.)

Continue reading“The SurvivalBlog – Old School (S.O.S.) Newsletter Plan”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the rise of spot and futures gold prices. (See the Precious Metals section.)

Precious Metals

Gold continues to roar! After hitting an intraday all-time high of $2,119.50 USD per Troy ounce on Sunday night (December 4th, 2023) — which was Monday morning, in Asia — gold settled down in the $2,020/oz. range. That is still quite high.  For the record, I am still quite bullish on gold, and I’m confident that silver, platinum, and palladium will all soon bounce back to catch up. It is also noteworthy that Bitcoin is moving up in unison with gold. When I checked on Friday morning, it cost $43,920 USD to buy 1 BTC, and Ethereum was at $2,374!

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From Kelsey’s Gold Facts: Gold Price, Inflation, Dollar Collapse, & BRICS.

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Over at Seeking Alpha: Gold Price Spikes To All-Time High To Start December.

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And at Gold-Eagle.com: Andy Schectman, Lee Freeman: Sunday Gold Spike The Result Of Shift To Gold Over Treasuries.

Economy & Finance:

Chinese Wealth Giant Crumbles: ZEG’s Insolvency Shakes Shadow Banking. JWRs’ Comments:  Beware.  If the Mainland China banking collapse continues, then we can expect to see contagion worldwide in the credit derivatives markets.

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Rail union says Union Pacific layoffs of over 1,000 track maintenance workers jeopardizes safety.

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And speaking of The Oracle of Omaha: Warren Buffett may help Occidental Petroleum pay for a potential $10 billion takeover. Here’s what’s fueling the speculation.

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“Spiraling Out Of Control”: The U.S. Debt Crisis Goes Parabolic.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — December 7, 2023

On December 7, 1972, American astronaut Eugene Andrew Cernan commanded the last crewed flight to the Moon, effectively ending the Apollo program.

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On this day in 1941, Japanese bombers launched a surprise aerial attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, precipitating the entry of the United States into World War II.

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On the very same day, Adolf Hitler issued his Night and Fog Decree, a secret order for the arrest and execution of “persons endangering German security.”

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An important Reminder:  TODAY, December 7th, 2023 is the deadline for comments on ATF’s “Engaged in the business” rule.  PLEASE politely post your objections to this unconstitutional rule.  In your comment, make two points very clear:  There is NO valid jurisdiction (“Federal Nexus”) for ATF to regulate private party INTRAState sales of used guns that are no longer in INTERstate commerce. Private party sales of guns from personal collections that are sold to fellow private party residents of the same state are NOT “interstate commerce.” Furthermore, per the Bruen decision, there is NO pre-1791 analogous gun law that anyone can cite. (Bruen‘s “History, text, and tradition.”)

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Today’s feature article is a “how-to” piece that was authored by SurvivalBlog Field Gear Editor Tom Christianson.

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We are in need of entries for Round 110 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $850,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 110 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.