Preparing for Chaos, Theory and Application- Part 1, by DF

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Many people view the possibility of economic/societal disruption and collapse as science fiction, suitable as entertainment in dystopian novels or movies. I view it as actual science, not fiction and am preparing for the ensuing chaos and necessities to get past it. Well-proven theories in the areas of nonlinear systems and economics can help us partially understand what can happen, how we can prepare and respond, and even what is not possible to predict.

My first section on “theory” is quite abstract. It looks at some of the basic principles of chaos theory to describe the mechanisms of economic/societal collapse. It also looks at the laws of supply and demand to understand the likely failure of normal supply chains for goods and services. The other two major sections are very practical, almost boring, advice on creating your own supply chain for food supply to your farm animals, and ultimately, you.

Section I – Theory

I would like to discuss two theories– chaos theory and the laws of supply and demand.

Chaos Theory

Chaos theory describes certain types of nonlinear dynamic systems. It is characterized by a high gradient (driving force) and extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. The sensitivity to initial conditions make it impossible to calculate the exact behavior of the system very far into the future. Below are some simple examples.

Example of Water Flowing Through a Hose

Water flowing through a hose is completely predictable using newtonian physics at low flow rates. The water comes out in a smooth predictable tube the same shape as the hose. When the “gradient” of pressure driving force exceeds a certain threshold, the flow becomes turbulent and starts to spray in many different directions. Turbulence is a chaotic phenomenon that makes it impossible to predict where any specific water molecule will go.

Continue reading“Preparing for Chaos, Theory and Application- Part 1, by DF”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

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Here is SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt. This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. We also mention companies of interest to preppers that are located in the region. The emphasis this week is on the Sunshine Minting Company.

Idaho (Sunshine Minting)

The refined folks at Sunshine Minting (with several facilities, one of them in Coeur d’Alene) are seeing a jump in wholesale orders, because of rising silver prices. They make 1-ounce .999 silver planchets (blanks) for many other private mints and the popular U.S. Mint for the American Eagle coin minting program. The planchets for the discontinued American Redoubt coins also came from Sunshine Minting. They also make bars, up to 100 ounce weight, for companies such as APMEX. And of course they produce silver rounds and bars with their own logo. Those are sold by all of the major bullion coin sellers, and are so ubiquitous that you’ll often find them on eBay and at local coin shops.

I should mention that there seems to be some confusion between the company names of the famous Sunshine Mine and and Sunshine Minting. They are separate companies. Their only relationship at present is that Sunshine Minting does buy some silver from the Sunshine Mine. Started in 1884, the Sunshine Mine is still going strong, producing a high volume of silver ore.

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Woman airlifted to hospital after motorcycle crashes into herd of deer

 

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “HJL”.

I’m finally beginning to get some dexterity back in my fingers after the accident. It’s tough not being able to use your hands when there is so much to be done. Spring is definitely here! On the bright side, I spent some time watching YouTube videos and found a new vlogger that I like. AvE is a Canadian that believes in destructive testing of products. He tears down expensive tools and compares them to the cheap alternatives. He’s very ADD and reminds me of myself when I was younger.

In particular, he has a series where he compares the “Made in the USA” tools to Chinese imports and the results are rather surprising. In some cases, the “Made in the USA” tool performs better, as you would expect, but only marginally. In other cases, the Chinese import outperforms the USA product. I’m reminded of the early days of Japanese car imports. There was a time when Japanese car companies truly did produce junk, but it wasn’t long before they had a quality product on the market and the US auto manufactures were still producing the same old thing. You could routinely get 500,000 miles out of a Japanese engine while American engines were doing good to get 100,000 without having to be rebuilt. Who doesn’t think of Toyota as a quality product nowadays?

Competition is a good thing for the consumer. In any case, destructive testing is always fascinating to watch, especially when the product is expensive. Note: He does use rough language.

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“There is but one step from all this sense of irresponsibility and self-separation from city government—and I believe this is the very road which is taken—to that deep pit of fallen citizenship into which men plunge who bribe their way through city government to what they want. These men commit the unpardonable sin of city life. I know of nothing in all the range of municipal reform more important than the tearing up by the roots of the infamous practices of bribery. There is no worse citizen in America than the good citizen who pays a bribe. He is as much worse than the man he bribes as his social and financial opportunities are greater and his temptation less. His crime is committed without necessity and without haste. It is cold-blooded, mercenary debauchery, and wholly inexcusable. It inevitably must be stopped. It furnishes food for the greater part of the corruption of city government; with the spoils system it furnishes nearly all; and it is impossible to reform city government as long as this horrible vice in its present virulence exists. It is not only a grand obstacle to the introduction of business methods in city government, and it is not only immoral, dishonest and dishonorable as scarcely anything else in the corruption of city life is, but, upon the part of the bribers, is scandalously mean and degraded, in view of their chances in the honorable competition of business life and of the absence of all serious temptation.

As I believe the uprooting of these practices to be of the greatest moment to municipal reform, I beg to offer the practical suggestion that a change might be made in the laws punishing the crime. We have tried without avail laws making both briber and bribed equally punishable, because, as both are liable to punishment, both have the highest motive for secrecy—and evidence can hardly ever be obtained. We have also tried making the bribed alone punishable; and this has not availed because the briber is usually a man of too much position to be willing to tell the truth and appear in his true light. He is of that higher grade of criminals which can be trusted to believe in honor among thieves. I suggest the remaining alternative of making punishment apply only to the briber, for though the bribed would not always peach, he is of the sort that certainly sometimes would; and the briber, knowing the grade of man he was dealing with, would always regard him as a man who might; and would be apprehensive that when exposure did not follow, blackmail would; all of which would add new risks that very few monied men would dare to take. Moreover, in city government bribery there are usually so many of the bribed that the risks of exposure or blackmail would be immensely multiplied.” – Treasury Secretary Franklin MacVeagh (November 22, 1837 – July 6, 1934)

Kershaw/Emerson CQC-8K Tactical Folder, by Pat Cascio

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Under review today is the Kershaw/Emergson CQC-8K Tactical Folder. It’s one of the most popular tactical folding knives, designed by custom knife maker Ernest Emerson himself.

Knives Illustrated

Many years ago, I wrote for Knives Illustrated magazine, and for quite a few years I was their West Coast Field Editor. In my experience, what you see today in what is called Knives Illustrated isn’t really a staff-written cutlery magazine. Instead, it is designed to appear like a magazine, when it is nothing more than paid advertisements that look like articles but are not. Don’t be fooled. What you read there are paid advertisement “articles.”

Ernest Emerson

If you don’t know who Ernest Emerson is, I’d suggest you Google his name. You’ll see that he is not only a custom knife designer and maker, but he’s the real deal. He is a well-known martial artist as well. Emerson talks the talk and walks the walk. I have, in the past, spent many hours talking with Emerson on the phone when I was reviewing some of his knives for articles. The man is genuine. And before I knew it, several hours passed when we talked on the phone. Back then, in the early 1990s, Emerson had just started mass producing his knives in a small factory he started in California. Emerson couldn’t begin to keep up with orders for his custom-made knives, and the only solution at that time was to start his own factory and train the personnel to produce his knives.

Continue reading“Kershaw/Emerson CQC-8K Tactical Folder, by Pat Cascio”

Recipe of the Week: Waldorf Salad, by L.H.

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This “old-fashioned” salad (my recipe card for it is circa 1979) has seemingly fallen out of favor, and I don’t know why. It’s yummy and unique, and fairly simple to throw together. It will be perfect alongside your next grilled chicken dinner.

Ingredients:

  • 3 apples (your favorite variety), peeled, trimmed, and cubed into bite-sizes
  • 3 stalks celery, diced
  • 1/2 c. pecans, coarsely chopped
  • 2 tsp. lemon juice
  • 1/2 c. mayonnaise
  • 2 tsp. sugar dash of salt

Continue reading“Recipe of the Week: Waldorf Salad, by L.H.”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on private mints.

 

Precious Metals (Private Mints):

One aspect of the thin precious metals market is often overlooked: The small number of private mints in the U.S. and Canada. There are only a handful of mints, and the volume of coins and bars that they can produce is limited. The huge coin presses that they use are specialized pieces of equipment. And not many manufacturers have experience pressing medallions. So if there is ever a spike in demand, other makers can’t jump into the market overnight. If and when we do witness a big spike in silver, it is safe to assume that the private mints will not be able to keep up with market demand. At that stage, the premium for coins of any type will go up. But presently, with silver just now emerging from the doldrums, you can still get silver coins at a very low markup over the spot price of silver.

Mints that have a low debt burden seem to do best, as they are usually able to ride out the highs and lows of the market. Silver Towne Mint and Sunshine Minting are two good examples of low-debt mints that have been in business for decades.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the profit margin for private mints is small, yet their capital equipment costs are high. So small mints going bankrupt is a fairly common occurrence, especially in bear market phases. (See for example, the sad demise Mulligan Mint and Northwest Territorial Mint, in 2013 and 2016, respectively.) Inevitably, it seems that their specialized minting equipment and assorted tooling gets sold through bankruptcy liquidation sales or auctions. Then another firm opens up or expands an existing mint using part or all of that same equipment. To clarify: The 1-ounce .999 silver round is essentially generic. Most mints use .999 fine silver planchets (blanks) produced by larger companies. The only thing unique seems to be the dies for the coins. But their quality varies. Highly-polished dies can produce proof quality coins.

There are not many mints that actually have the equipment to melt raw .999 silver, roll it to an exacting thickness, and then punch out their own planchets for minting bullion coins. Just a few mints have that flexibility. The majority of private “mints” are not really mints per se. Rather, they are low-temperature pressing operations that lack high temperature planchet production capability. Hence they are at the mercy of the market. In times of high demand, a chronic shortage of silver planchets develops. So the mints that don’t produce their own planchets find themselves unable to produce many coins when demand is at a peak.

Keep all of the foregoing in mind. I generally recommend buying coins from coin dealers rather than from mints. But even coin dealers can go out of business. (Like the Tulving debacle in 2014, for example.) So do your due diligence before you buy. Buy only from well-established dealers or mints with good reputations.

o o o

The 30-day chart for spot silver is looking promising.   But remember: Silver is more of a long term hedge.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“The President can exercise no power which cannot be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant of power in the Federal Constitution or in an act of Congress passed in pursuance thereof. There is no undefined residuum of power which he can exercise because it seems to him to be in the public interest.” – President William Howard Taft

Preparedness Notes for Sunday – April 22, 2018

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Today is also the birthday of the late Charles Rankin Bond, Jr, who was born in Dallas on April 22, 1915. He was one of the last of the AVG Flying Tiger pilots.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today features another entry for Round 76 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $11,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value), and
  8. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A gift certificate for any two or three-day class from Max Velocity Tactical (a $600 value),
  4. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 76 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Creating Your Own Secure Messages – Part 2, by DaytonPrepper1

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Yesterday we talked about how to create and use a One Time Pad. Today we will talk about another way of encoding messages. I am sure I am not creating anything new with this method, but I have not seen it before nor do I have a name for it. My working name is Word Grid Substitution.

Description of the Method

The heart of this method is a 25,000 word grid. The current word grid is 10×2500. I take the message to be encoded and search for the first word from a random spot in the list. When the word is found, the coordinates are then recorded. The encoded message is then a simple list of grid coordinates. Your contact would need to have the exact word grid and spreadsheet to decode the message.

Building the Word Grid

I used a lot of public sources to gather this list of words for the word grid. I pulled in several open source books. Then, there was some work to do word frequency counts to help determine two things– determine what words appear frequently in the English language and in what ratio they appeared. For example, the word “the” appears in the word grid 63 times, the letter “a” 28 times, the letter “I” 30 times, and the word “one” five times. This allows the messages to contain the same words but show different encodings, so that word patterns are harder to spot. I also used word lists on different topics as well as a lot of abbreviations, acronyms, country names, capitals, states, books of the Bible, body parts, food names, plants, trees, et cetera.

Continue reading“Creating Your Own Secure Messages – Part 2, by DaytonPrepper1”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “HJL”.

Sent in by JMC: Putin Warns Russian Students Living In Britain: “Come Home Immediately”

Following in London’s footsteps: Knife Control Movement Crosses Atlantic – DSV

CDC, in Surveys It Never Bothered Making Public, Provides More Evidence that Plenty of Americans Innocently Defend Themselves with Guns – G.G.

o o o

An interesting take on Newsweek’s article on South Africa: Newsweek Says White South Africans Should Just “Stop Panicking”. Thanks to S.M. for the link.

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“But what saith it? The word is nigh thee, even in thy mouth, and in thy heart: that is, the word of faith, which we preach; that if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation. For the scripture saith, Whosoever believeth on him shall not be ashamed.” – Romans 10:8-11 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday – April 21, 2018

April 21st is Aggie Muster Day, for all Texas A&M Corps of Cadets graduates. Aggie Muster celebrations/meetings are held as far away as Japan, Germany, and Afghanistan. I should mention that Jim’s grandfather (a U.S. Army Cavalry LTC) was an Aggie– something mentioned so often that everyone in his family felt like de facto Aggies, too. Other than the officers that matriculate though West Point, the four institutions that seem to have the greatest ongoing esprit de corps for graduates are Texas A&M, The Citadel, Norwich University, NMMI, and VMI. Jim felt almost obliged to include an Aggie character in his novels Survivors and Founders, even though his connection to Texas A&M is two generations removed.

The photo above was taken on Muster Day at the command bunker at Correigidor Island, Philippines. Lt. Col. William A. Hamilton, Jr., the last of the survivors of the 1942 Correigidor Muster passed away in January of this year.

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Some Sad News: Humorist outdoors writer Patrick McManus passed away on April 11th. He was 84 years old. He was born in Sandpoint, Idaho on August 25th, 1933. His books are much beloved by many Redoubters. Our condolences to his family.

o o o

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today features another entry for Round 76 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $11,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value), and
  8. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A gift certificate for any two or three-day class from Max Velocity Tactical (a $600 value),
  4. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 76 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Creating Your Own Secure Messages– Part 1, by DaytonPrepper1

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I am an experienced programmer with a lot of time spent in Excel everyday for my paying job. East Sierra Sage’s article on Cipher Security got me thinking again about One Time Pads and other secure message techniques. I really enjoy automating things with Excel’s powerful formulas and macros. So I set off to create a tool for a One Time Pad spreadsheet that would create the One Time Pads and also encode and decode the messages being sent.

How to Use a One Time Pad (OTP)

You will need a Shift Chart and an OTP Chart as the basic components for this type of message security. The Shift Chart is used to look up a character in your message and then offset or shift to a position in the Shift Chart using another character found in the OTP Chart. Your message will be encoded one character at a time.

To Encode Your Message

To encode your message, you take the first letter of your message and go down the left most column of your Shift Chart. When you find that letter in your Shift Chart, you will then find the next character available in your OTP Chart. To do that, go to the row of your OTP Chart and find the next unused character. If you have already used all of a row, just go down to the next available row. With your OTP character you find it by going across the top row of the Shift Chart. Use the character where the column and row intersect as your encoded letter. Cross off your OTP character in the OTP Chart, so that you will not ever use it again. Continue with that process until you have your entire message encoded.

Continue reading“Creating Your Own Secure Messages– Part 1, by DaytonPrepper1”