Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the export side of the Swiss watch market. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Mike Gleason: Fed’s Own Forecasts Again Dead Wrong as QE4 Accelerates

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Why are Gold and Bonds rising together?

Economy & Finance:

The Hill reports: US debt surpasses $23 trillion for first time. JWR’s Comment:  That is a $1.3 trillion jump in past 12 months.  For some perspective: It took the first 205 years for our Federal government to pile up the first Trillion Dollars of debt.  We are now witnessing an almost upright spike. A Dollar crash is now inevitable.

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At Zero Hedge: JPMorgan Prepares For Next Recession By Shifting Jobs From NYC To Texas

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Rents Fall Southern California, Seattle, Miami, San Francisco, San Jose, Chicago, Honolulu & Others. JWRs’ Comment:  Chalk this up as an omen. If you own any rental properties, then this is a good time to cash out!

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Another from Wolf Street: Global Slowdown? Mexico’s GDP Declines Year-Over-Year for First Time Since 2009

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — November 3, 2019

On November 3, 1903, Walker Evans, the American photographer best known for his portrayal of America during the Great Depression, was born.

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I’m still running short of articles to fill out the current round of the SurvivalBlog nonfiction writing contest. Please write an article at least 1,500 words long, and send it in. The prize packages for the top three judged articles are amazing! There are more than $12,000 worth of prizes.

Teaching Preparedness To Family, by Old Bobbert – Part 2

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(Continued from Part 1. This concludes the article.)

Step #4 – Warnings About In-House People Problems

We specifically included the following blog article for its high self discipline / self management value. This was a last minute find equal to being a “ Golden Nugget “ for our family and for me personally. This is a highly protective tool!

Prepper Complacency, by Wood Tamer (May 3, 2019)

Another excellent tool we included from the archives was the following:

Five Common Mistakes New Preppers Make and How to Avoid Them- Parts 1 & 2  (June 1, 2016)

Failure to Properly Assess Your Situation

There’s an old saying, “If you fail to plan, then you plan to fail.” This could not be truer than when it comes to survival. Failure to assess your individual situation from the beginning can and most likely will leave you more unprepared than you would like to believe. If you are new to prepping and just getting started, the first thing on your list should be a complete assessment. If you have been prepping for a while and have not done a proper assessment of your specific needs, then now is a good time to do so.

STEP #5 – How To Properly Plan For Prepper Success

Again, I went back to the blog archives for success from the past and I found the very best “how to “ instructions in the article named and quoted below. Note the “everyday life wordage “. It’s a principle!

The Thorough Planning and Orders Process – Part 1, By J.E.D. (September 10, 2015) After reading articles on this site and many other similar sites over the last few years, it has surprised me that no one has written about the planning process itself. I have read quite a few well written articles that have contained very good information about planning for tasks such as defending your home, bugging out, and other activities. In this article I would like to address the overall planning process that can be used for everyday life.”Continue reading“Teaching Preparedness To Family, by Old Bobbert – Part 2”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we look at yet another prediction of a possible second civil war.

Rep. Gohmert Predicts Second Civil War

Linked over at the great Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Rep. Louis Gohmert: Impeachment ‘Coup’ Will ‘Push This Country Toward Civil War’

Tax Collectors Ferreting Home Improvements

Company Allows Tax Collectors To Secretly Look For Home Improvements And Airbnb’s.  (A hat tip to H.L. for the link.) The article begins:

Trust a corporation to turn property tax collectors into property owner surveillance operatives.

Deckard Technologies (DT) promotes Smart City surveillance by creating a program that allows tax collectors to surveil resident’s properties anytime they want.

If you hate corporate doublespeak like I do, then you will love DT’s explanation of how their product works.

“Applying advanced data analytics, machine-learning and the talents of our data scientists, we identify, monitor and analyze real estate data and property activity for cities demanding answers with accuracy and precision.”

Let’s start with their “advanced analytics that identifies, monitors and analyzes real estate data and property activity.” In a nutshell they use Google Earth or other satellite imagery of peoples homes and compare them to their building plans.

After a tax collector has looked at someone’s property they can fine the owner for any number of reasons, which in turn adds to that city’s bottom line. Turning government tax collectors into a for-profit business venture is infuriating.

Goat Herd Saves Reagan Library From Fire

Goat herd credited with saving Reagan Presidential Library from wildfire in California

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“The elder unto the elect lady and her children, whom I love in the truth; and not I only, but also all they that have known the truth;

For the truth’s sake, which dwelleth in us, and shall be with us for ever.

Grace be with you, mercy, and peace, from God the Father, and from the Lord Jesus Christ, the Son of the Father, in truth and love.

I rejoiced greatly that I found of thy children walking in truth, as we have received a commandment from the Father.

And now I beseech thee, lady, not as though I wrote a new commandment unto thee, but that which we had from the beginning, that we love one another.

And this is love, that we walk after his commandments. This is the commandment, That, as ye have heard from the beginning, ye should walk in it.

For many deceivers are entered into the world, who confess not that Jesus Christ is come in the flesh. This is a deceiver and an antichrist.

Look to yourselves, that we lose not those things which we have wrought, but that we receive a full reward.

Whosoever transgresseth, and abideth not in the doctrine of Christ, hath not God. He that abideth in the doctrine of Christ, he hath both the Father and the Son.

If there come any unto you, and bring not this doctrine, receive him not into your house, neither bid him God speed:

For he that biddeth him God speed is partaker of his evil deeds.” – 2 John 1-11(KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — November 2, 2019

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On November 2, 1917, British Foreign Secretary Arthur James Balfour submitted a declaration of intent to establish a Jewish homeland known as the Balfour Declaration. While Arab hostilities and the outbreak of World War II delayed the desired outcome, the Nation of Israel was eventually re-established in 1948.

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Today we present Part 1 of an article by regular contributor “Old Bobbert.”  Because this article primarily references other already published articles, it is not eligible in the Writing Contest judging.

Teaching Preparedness To Family, by Old Bobbert – Part 1

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Just a few months ago our family in the Midwest was pummeled by terrible storms and flooding. I knew we had to help them to cope with the dangerous weather events in their neighborhoods. So I put together a “Family Prepper Package“ of information. Here was my process:

Step #1 Create a Written PLan

We made a copy of the plan a part of the presentation binder contents for each household in our extended family. Our plan evolved loosely into a seven part program based on current interests, current economics, infrastructure lack of maintenance, and the real probability of a financial collapse in the fairly near future. Our immediate local Utah family has been involved in preparedness for nearly 30 years, beginning with accepting a volunteer church assignment as our local congregation’s preparedness / self reliance specialists. Please note that our personal viewpoint of preparedness is that it is actually a select group of proven principles  — namely frugality and forward thinking / awareness integrated into our daily lives.

A key proviso: If your survival plan is complicated, if your survival plan is expensive, if your survival plan is too short term, if your survival plan is out-dated, or if your survival plan is not based on ample food and water, then It Will Not Work Well.

Our church does promote preparedness as a suggested practical concept, and no, it is never a doctrinal premise or membership requirement. Principles are never denominational, and no group can ever have sole ownership of a principle. That maxim does well in our family, since there are members of four different religious denominations plus our one agnostic son who has terrific values and personal integrity  and standards.

Okay, we are past the useless churchy objectionable bias stuff. Now let’s go for the proven procedures that can be learned from folks you may not agree with on any topics, ever. Claim Whatever Works For You!

Simplistic Food Supply Planning Rule #1:
Never store food items that you have not eaten in the past six weeks. Think about it.

Simplistic Water Supply Planning Rule #2:
When the lights go off, fill your bathtub with cold water while you still have water pressure. Think about it.

These two simplistic common sense concepts of survival were proposed, taught, and re-taught to our midwest family repeatedly so as to enable them to finally begin to both think and feel that planning ahead for disaster response decisions, and making a written plan, would save lives and conquer fear. We made these two rules the foundational basis of the Family Prepper Package.

You can easily go to YouTube and search for: “WENDY DEWITT – FOOD – and then download her very special and personal food storage methods program. We put it in the video group. It runs a little more than an hour and she starts with a statement that: “this is a church sponsored presentation that is not approved by the church, it just works so very well”.

We live in SW Utah and our full / extended family groups are located many hundreds of miles away in Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, and up in Idaho. They range in age from 59 down to an infant. And only one adult grandson (in Kansas) was interested in serious preparedness before we made a committed decision to update all of them with binders filled with selected print-outs and two inexpensive USB flash drives filled with downloaded videos.

Continue reading“Teaching Preparedness To Family, by Old Bobbert – Part 1”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

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To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year. Note that as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in the Comments. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

I had a fairly quiet week. Other than writing, the highlights of the week were deer hunting, horse hoof trimming, and some organization around the house.  I got busy and tagged and cataloged most of the antique guns that I’ve purchased in past few months. My goal is to be ready to re-launch my mail order company, come March or April, of 2020. With that venture, I’ll be re-selling antique guns and various gun accessories, nationwide. Because my blog and books are being shadow-banned, de-ranked, and demonetiized, that new revenue stream may prove crucial for keeping my household afloat.

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“When thou sittest to eat with a ruler, consider diligently what is before thee:

And put a knife to thy throat, if thou be a man given to appetite.

Be not desirous of his dainties: for they are deceitful meat.

Labour not to be rich: cease from thine own wisdom.

Wilt thou set thine eyes upon that which is not? for riches certainly make themselves wings; they fly away as an eagle toward heaven.

Eat thou not the bread of him that hath an evil eye, neither desire thou his dainty meats:

For as he thinketh in his heart, so is he: Eat and drink, saith he to thee; but his heart is not with thee.

The morsel which thou hast eaten shalt thou vomit up, and lose thy sweet words.

Speak not in the ears of a fool: for he will despise the wisdom of thy words.

Remove not the old landmark; and enter not into the fields of the fatherless:

For their redeemer is mighty; he shall plead their cause with thee.

Apply thine heart unto instruction, and thine ears to the words of knowledge.

Withhold not correction from the child: for if thou beatest him with the rod, he shall not die.

Thou shalt beat him with the rod, and shalt deliver his soul from hell.

My son, if thine heart be wise, my heart shall rejoice, even mine.

Yea, my reins shall rejoice, when thy lips speak right things.

Let not thine heart envy sinners: but be thou in the fear of the Lord all the day long.

For surely there is an end; and thine expectation shall not be cut off.

Hear thou, my son, and be wise, and guide thine heart in the way.

Be not among winebibbers; among riotous eaters of flesh:

For the drunkard and the glutton shall come to poverty: and drowsiness shall clothe a man with rags.

Hearken unto thy father that begat thee, and despise not thy mother when she is old.” – Proverbs 23:1-22 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — November 1, 2019

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Today is the 100th birthday of Canadian test pilot Russell Bannock. (Pictured, on the left.)

These details on Bannock are courtesy of the Infogalactic wiki:

After entering the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF), Bannock received his pilot’s wings in 1940 and was appointed as an instructor at Trenton, Ontario. Later he was posted to Royal Air Force Ferry Command from June to August 1942. In September 1942, Bannock became chief instructor with the Flying Instructor School at Arnprior in Ontario. Bannock’s request for overseas service was granted in 1944 and he joined 60 OTU based in RAF High Ercall, England.

In June 1944, Bannock was then transferred to No. 418 Squadron RCAF, flying intruder missions over Europe with the de Havilland Mosquito Mk. VI fighter-bomber. He quickly proved adept at this type of operation and achieved his first victories. In October 1944, he was promoted to Wing Commander and took command of the squadron. Bannock also flew ‘Diver’ operations against the German V-1 “flying bombs” launched against London and southern England. On one mission he shot down four V-1s in one hour. A bar to his Distinguished Flying Cross (DFC) was added for his missions against the V-1s.

Bannock was transferred to No. 406 Squadron RCAF in November 1944 as commanding officer, and was awarded the Distinguished Service Order (DSO). By April 1945, Bannock had destroyed 11 enemy aircraft (including 2 on the ground), 4 damaged in the air and 19.5 V-1’s destroyed. Bannock became Director of Operations, RCAF Overseas Headquarters, in London in May 1945 until September 1945 when he attended the Royal Air Force Staff College. Retiring from the RCAF in 1946, Bannock joined the de Havilland Canada Aircraft Company as chief test pilot, flying prototypes like the Beaver and various short take-off and landing aircraft. In 1950 Bannock became Director of Military Sales and later Vice President and President from 1976 to 1978. In 1968 he formed his own consulting business, Bannock Aerospace Ltd.

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November 1st, 1923 was the birthday of science fiction writer Gordon R. Dickson (born 1923, died January 31, 2001). Many of his novels and short stories, such as Wolf and Iron, have survivalist themes.

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November 1st is also the birthday of economist Martin A. Armstrong. For many years he was a prisoner of conscience, in part because he refused to turn over his proprietary trading algorithms to Federal prosecutors. After seven years in prison without a trial, the longest Federal incarceration for contempt in American history, Armstrong was finally put on trial in a proceeding that was branded as a sham. He was convicted on securities fraud charges based upon some marginal testimony and given a five year sentence. He was released from prison in September of 2011. Notably, Armstrong continued to write his economics newsletter while in prison, producing most of the issues on a prison library typewriter.

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Today, I’m posting an essay that I penned.

A Lament for California

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With all of the recent news about squalid homeless encampments, mismanaged utilities, gun-grabbing Democrat politicians, a potentially bankrupt public employee pension fund, and wildfires in California, I thought that it would be apropos to post a personal lament. This is a largely autobiographical commentary on the sad fall of the state of my birth, since the 1960s. But first, let me look back a bit further in time:

Our Pioneer Roots

The Rawles family came to California in 1856, via covered wagon. My great-great grandfather, Joseph Rawles, was a fifth generation American of English extraction who was born in Ohio. He was a horse breeder. Seeing that Ohio becoming too populous, he decided to move west, bringing with him 50 head of horses. He settled his family near the tiny hamlets of Philo and Boonville, nestled in the Anderson Valley of the Coast Range, in Mendocino County. There, they first raised horses, and then during the Civil War they transitioned to raising sheep. By the 1870s, his two eldest sons owned more than 6,000 contiguous acres. And by the year 1900, they had flocks numbering more than 5,000 Merino sheep. They made a good living at selling wool and redwood timber. At that time California had a small and unpretentious government, with very little regulation of people’s lives and livelihoods.

By the time I was born, in 1960, various branches of the family had scattered throughout northern California. I was raised in the suburban town of Livermore, at the eastern fringe of the San Francisco Bay Area. In 1960, Livermore’s population was around 16,000. As of 2019, it is now close to 87,000.  But in the 1960s, it was quite pleasant small town with some brown smog that crept in from Hayward and Oakland, but very little crime or traffic. The public schools were good and people generally got along very well. My school classmates were mostly the children of Lawrence Radiation Laboratory employees (like me), or the children of ranchers and wine grape growers. (With surnames like Wente and Concannon.)

In the California where I grew up in the 1960s and 1970s, it still very much the traditional conservative bedrock culture, where most people owned guns and went to church on Sundays. Kids like me went out in the hills around town and shot jackrabbits with our .22s. Nobody blinked an eye when they saw 14 year-olds on bikes with .22 rifles slung across our backs. (See the book Suburbia, by Bill Owens. Nearly all of those photos were taken in Livermore, from around 1968 to 1972. The cover photo from that book tops this article.)Continue reading“A Lament for California”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at investing in Federally antique Finn M39 Mosin Nagant rifles. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

It is noteworthy that the ratio of silver to gold spot prices peaked at around 92.5-to-1 in mid-July, 2019, and is now down to around 82.5-to-1.  But I believe that this slide will continue, even if there is a deep global recession. The bottom may be as low as 15-to-1–although that may not come until the second half of the 21st Century. I suggest that you should still ratio trade out of gold and into silver, unless secure storage space is very limited in your home. I’ve often written that silver makes great “ballast” for a home gun vault.

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The End Of Fiat In One Chart?

Economy & Finance:

Fed at a crossroads: Rate cut likely this week, but is this the last hurrah?

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Caterpillar just flashed the latest warning sign for the global economy. (Thanks to H.L. for the link.)

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National Pravda Radio (NPR) reports: As Growth Slows To 1.9%, The Economy Is Falling Short Of Trump’s Target

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The Demographic Depression Will Overwhelm Central Bankers Over The Upcoming Decade

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — October 31, 2019

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As Christians, our family does not celebrate the pagan Halloween. Since October 31st is also Reformation Day, that is what we celebrate, here at the Rawles Ranch. This year we’ll be having a small Reformation Day feast dinner featuring squash from our garden, something plump from our poultry house, and apple cider that we pressed.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 85 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The more than $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3,000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  3. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  4. A $300 purchase credit for any of the products from EMPShield.com
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  7. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Good2GoCo.com is providing a $400 purchase credit at regular prices for the prize winner’s choice of either Wise Foods or Augason long term storage foods, in stackable buckets.
  2. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  3. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 85 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.