Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR.

Crash Alert — It Will Get Worse

Today, we look at the effects of both the new oil price war and the Wuhan coronavirus on global finance and equities markets.  I’m writing this column on Thursday evening, near the end of two of the most turblulent weeks in U.S. market history. In has been a roller coaster ride, but the general trend has been downward, albeit with some big rallies. I’ve concluded that the downtrend will continue. Any further rallies in 2020 will likely be “Bear Trap” rallies. For example, there will probably be another rally just after President DJT is re-elected. Take advantage of such rallies to unload any of your remaining equities positions. Be aware that even precious metals might suffer in the near term, as the big long options traders desperately liquidate everything, to cover their positions. My advice: Continue to get out of equities and into precious metals and firearms. In a deep recession or depression, fine art, rare wines, Swiss watches and assorted collectibles will suffer. Don’t buy any of those until you are confident that those markets are at or near the very bottom.

And what about the long term? I’m still betting on a deep deflationary recession or even a decade-long general market depression, possibly including a spasm of mass inflation and currency repudiations and/or currency consolidation into regional sovereign cryptocurrencies. All this, as governments and central banks attempt to thrash their way out of the morass that they have created with their unrealistic fiscal and monetary policies.

Precious Metals:

Just as the equities markets were taking another dive on Monday morning, the silver-to-gold ratio spiked briefly to 100-to-1. That was an all-time record. On Tuesday the ratio rebounded to around 97-to1. But then by Thursday morning, it was back to 100-to-1. So this is a great time to buy silver, or to ratio trade out of gold into silver. Any time that you can catch a market swing at an extreme point (“the end of the pendulum swing”), then it is usually a good time to shift your investments.

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And speaking of “the end of the pendulum swing”, it is noteworthy that spot platinum just did a belly flop dive to $772 per Troy ounce. At the same time, spot gold was at $1,572. That is a more than a 2-to-1 ratio!  That is hard to fathom, since platinum has traditionally sold at a premium above gold. So this would also be a good time to trade gold (or rhodium, if you still have any), for platinum.

Economy & Finance:

For the first time in history, the entire US debt market is trading below 1%. This is an unprecedented level for interest rates in the United States. Buckle up, folks. This ride is going to get very bumpy! – JWR

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Coronavirus updates: Fear batters the economy as U.S. death toll rises to 26

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At Zero Hedge: Funding Freeze Getting Worse: Dealers Demand Record $216BN In Liquidity From Fed Repo

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Payments on mortgages to be suspended across Italy after coronavirus outbreak

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At Wolf Street: Tourism is 10% of GDP in France, 13% in Italy, 15% in Spain. And Now it’s in Free Fall

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“The war on drugs has turned into a war on civil liberties The reason is simple. The war is a war on people suspected of using, or dealing in, or otherwise being involved in drugs. But the drug industry survives because tens of millions of people engage in voluntary transactions, which they try to keep secret. Hence law enforcement must attempt to penetrate the private lives of millions of suspects, which could be almost anyone.” – J. Orlin Grabbe

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — March 12, 2020

Today is the birthday of science fiction author Harry Harrison, who is best known for his Deathworld trilogy. (He was born in 1920 and died in 2012.)

On March 12, 1850 the first US $20 gold piece was issued.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 87 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A $300 purchase credit for any of the products from EMPShield.com
  4. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  5. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  6. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $100 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 87 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Preps for Coronavirus by A.J.S.

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Coronarvirus Simplified and Explained with Suggested Actions

At this late stage the time for preparedness has largely passed but it is not entirely too late. Please read the following and consider either preparing accordingly or supplementing your current preps accordingly.

Background Info:

The novel coronavirus (COVID 19) currently spreading rapidly around the globe is reportedly spread primarily by droplets (think the size droplets you get when you sneeze–big enough to feel most of the time) with some spread being reported by airborne particles (think the size of the dust motes that you see suspended in the air if the sunlight hits them just right). What this means in practical terms is that most of the time people get the virus when someone contagious coughs or sneezes into their hand and touches an object (think doorknobs) or directly onto an object and then someone else touches it and subsequently touches their eyes, nose or mouth which introduces the virus into the body or when someone sneezes or coughs into the air at a distance of less than 4-6 feet from you and you inhale the droplets. Those size droplets usually fall out of the air within a few feet.

There is practically no chance of it going through intact unbroken skin into the body; that is simply not how it works. Some people–specifically the people on the cruise ship–reportedly got it from those much smaller particles that suspend in the air which is called airborne transmission. What makes this such a challenge to contain is that these size particles suspend in the air for a long time–they get sucked up into HVAC systems and recirculated, they drift on air currents etc.

The only real way to be assured of avoiding these particles is to wear both a N95 mask AND goggles for eye protection. Fortunately the risk of getting it this route is much lower unless you are in certain specific circumstances (in a building or on a cruise ship where the air is recirculated and you are constantly exposed and re-exposed until finally enough makes it into your body to cause you to get sick). Masks and goggles can prevent this type of exposure and reduce this risk however, the biggest reason masks and goggles are helpful is simply because they serve as a physical reminder and barrier to keep you from touching your eyes, nose and mouth which are the three places where viruses of all types most commonly enter your body.

This particular virus is very easily spread–according to info I am seeing online it spreads as much as 6 times quicker and easier than the flu and as much as 3-4 times easier than the stomach flu–in other words it spreads FAST! Making things worse, there is no natural immunity anywhere in any human population–no one has ever been exposed to it and developed antibodies to fight it off before now so everyone is susceptible to getting it. Fortunately it is not a devastatingly deadly disease.

Assuming adequate medical care it kills about 2-3% of the people who get it. Another 16% will have serious complications and end up hospitalized– with a smaller percentage in ICU, on a ventilator for a week to 2 weeks and then recover. The common flu kills about 0.2% of the people who get it and about that many more require hospitalization. Much like the seasonal flu is currently and chicken pox was when we were kids, if this coronavirus persists for long enough pretty much everyone will eventually get it–it is too contagious not too.

The biggest goal of the public health sector is to slow it down so that hospitals and the healthcare system aren’t overwhelmed. As a simplified example: if your hospital has 10 ICU beds and 100 people need an ICU bed right now its a bad, bad day but if 10 people need them this week, ten next week and ten for each of the following 8 weeks then its no big deal. Most of the things that should be coming down the pipe will be to try to spread the illness out over time so that it can be better managed. The impact this has is very, very, obvious when you look at China–in cities with a low caseload the death rate is 2-3% but in Hubei province where the system is totally overwhelmed it is about 4-5%.

The other hope is that by delaying and slowing the spread that summer will get here and as the traditional flu season ends the spread will slow down naturally. I personally suspect that it will slow down over the summer here in the USA but will be running rampant through South America and Africa during their winter and will then come sweeping back through the US next winter again. By the following year we should have vaccine production ramped up enough to make an actual difference.Continue reading“Preps for Coronavirus by A.J.S.”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we look at coronavirus quarantines.

All U.S. Hospital Beds to be Filled in May?

A bit of confirmation for one of my assertions, over at Zero Hedge: All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis. Here is a snippet:

“We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.“

What You Can (and Can’t) Feed Your Dog

Reader C.B. suggested this, over at Fox News:  Feeding your dog from the table: What you can and can’t do, according to veterinarian

Does Joe Biden Have Dementia?

Linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Does Joe Biden have dementia?. A quote:

“Memory loss and difficulty finding words, the two top hallmarks of dementia, are present in just about all of his speeches and debates. His campaign and the DNC have downplayed the memory loss as no big deal and they attribute his difficulty finding words with his history of stuttering as a child. But again, we’ve seen Biden in action. When he was finishing up his second term as Vice President, he was very active as many were pushing for him to run for president. But even after he declined and started supporting Hillary Clinton, he demonstrated clarity with his cognitive abilities.”

Facial Hairstyles and Filtering Facepiece Respirators

Reader A.W. sent this: Facial Hairstyles and Filtering Facepiece Respirators

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — March 11, 2020

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Today is the birthday of author Douglas Adams (born 1952). He is the author of Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.

Trapper and survivalist Claude Lafayette Dallas, Jr.  was born March 11, 1950. The subject of several books and movies, Dallas had a “colorful” life. He was convicted of voluntary manslaughter in the deaths of two game wardens, in Idaho. He served 22 years of a 30-year sentence before being released in 2005. He reportedly now lives in the wilds of Alaska.

Also on this day, the Great Blizzard of ’88 struck the northeastern United States (1888).

March 11th is the birthday of the late actor Anton Yelchin (born 1989, died June 19, 2016). He is remembered for his portrayal of Kyle Reese in Terminator: Salvation, and as Ensign Pavel Checkov, in the most recent Star Trek movie series. He died in a freak accident wherein his parked Jeep Grand Cherokee unexpectedly rolled forward on an incline, pinning him to a security fence.

Useful Transceivers for Most Preppers, by Tunnel Rabbit

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Preamble

The goal of this article to provide readers, the average preppers radio operator, with useful choices that may be capable of meeting a required level of performance. These are some inexpensive, or low power radio options that do not require an Amateur Radio License in the U.S..

Antenna choice is a very important to the part of providing reliable communications within a 10 to 20 mile radius using low powered radios. Terrain also plays an important role. If one located 50 feet higher than the average elevation of the surrounding terrain, the distance it may transmit and receive is much greater. The old rule of thumb in the Amateur Radio world is that ‘height is might’. Even though there will be additional loss of signal in a lengthy run of cable to an antenna that is mounted as high as possible, the additional height of the antenna that avoids obstacles and terrain in the radio wave’s path, easily compensates. In this example, extreme signal loss in a RG-58 cable intended for short runs only, can lose, say half of the signal strength, or 1.5 Dbd, is acceptable if the otherwise low in height antenna installation cannot make reliable communications possible.

Another configuration to consider is that a radio with only 2 watts output, using antenna that mounted at least 15 feet high, and transmits through an antenna with a gain of 1.5 Ddb, can outperform a 10 watt radio transmission that transmits through a 1/4 wave unity gain (no gain) antenna mounted on a vehicle roof. The radio’s frequency also plays an important role in how in negotiates terrain, and obstacles. Radio line of sight in not a straight line. Radio wave can penetrate, or follow the ground, and go around or deflect over hills by about 5 percent, and travel to it’s destination that cannot be seen with the eyes. The longer wave lengths tend to do this much better than the short wave lengths such are used in GMRS radios. GMRS radio using the 3 times shorter in wave length UHF frequencies as compared to VHF frequencies. So they will tend to penetrate some buildings and obstacles much better than VHF. CB radio waves are in the 11 meter band right next to the 10 meter Amateur band. CB transmissions can follow the ground much better than high VHF frequencies that is used in the Multi User Radio Service (MURS) that starts at 151.820MHz.

Three radios and antenna options to consider.

Option 1: SSB CB Radio

Pros:
– No license required.
– Affordable.
– Familiar format.
– No programming needed.
– Can talk with common CB radios.
– Semi-secure. Of the three choices, it provides the highest level of COMSEC.
It is semi-secure, as there a few SSB CBs in use, and standard CBs cannot receive an intelligible signal from SSB CB, when SSB mode is selected.
– Higher effective signal strength due the type of modulation as compared to standard CB radio.
The radio’s rated output is 4 watts, yet when used in Singe Side Band mode, this type modulation has an effective rating of about 12 watts. 12 watts that can provide reliable communications out to at least 10 miles, or more in average terrain. However, both radios in the network need to be CBs with SSB capability.

Cons:
– Large in 20 foot in diameter area needed for the ground plane of the antenna.Continue reading“Useful Transceivers for Most Preppers, by Tunnel Rabbit”

JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:

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Here are JWR’s Recommendations of the Week for various media and tools of interest to SurvivalBlog readers. The focus is usually on emergency communications gear, bug out bag gear, books and movies–often with a tie-in to disaster preparedness, and links to “how to” self-sufficiency videos. There are also links to sources for both storage food and storage containers. You will also note an emphasis on history books and historical movies. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. This week the focus is on Red Feather Canned Butter. (See the Gear & Grub section.)

Books:

Sustainable Market Farming: Intensive Vegetable Production on a Few Acres

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The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History

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Now that Paladin Press is kaput, this is now a quite scarce book: Defending Your Retreat: A Manual For Combat After the Collapse.

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I just noticed that my book How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times is still selling well, and now has nearly 1,000 posted reader reviews, at Amazon.com. My next nonfiction book will be released on October 20th.  But please wait until the release day, to place your order. Thanks!

Continue reading“JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:”

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — March 10, 2020

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110 years ago today, March 10, 1910, China officially ended slavery. But unofficially, China now has one of the world’s largest slave populations. These are mostly political prisoners, working in prison factories. Sadly, there is no way of reliably knowing whether or not most of the “Made In China” merchandise that you buy might originate from the laogai prison factories.

—

Before I get to our feature article and regular columns, here are a few pressing news updates:

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 87 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A $300 purchase credit for any of the products from EMPShield.com
  4. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  5. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  6. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $100 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 87 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Coronavirus: More Thoughts on N95 Masks, by Survivormann99

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First, I should mention that I have no medical training beyond the first aid level. The purpose of this article is to address questions that have been of concern to me, and to toss out ideas on which others with more training and experience can comment on .

As the news about the coronavirus was gaining more attention nationally, a relative pooh-poohed the coronavirus threat by citing the annual number of flu fatalities as being a basis for comparison. In a subsequent response, he said, “Well, I’m going to keep doing what I always do. After all, what can I do about it here?” I responded, “You mean like buying a bunch of N95 masks, hand sanitizer, and avoiding crowds.” I heard only crickets after that point.

I have another relative who said, “I don’t think that we’re very threatened here in little old _________ville.” Pointing out that viruses have absolutely no respect for political boundaries and that the 1918 Spanish Flu reached remote Aleutian Islands had no effect on him. As far as I know, three weeks later he still has the same attitude, so I don’t even bring up the issue now. As someone said a long time ago, “You can only do what you can do.”

While many “panicked early” (I, myself, believe that it is more accurate to say “took precautions early”) and drove up N95 mask prices, even more people are searching for N95 masks now and are turning pale at the price tags. These efforts couldn’t be a better example of the effects of the Normalcy Bias having come home to roost for so much of the population.

Many in Europe suddenly woke up last weekend because, when the outbreak occurred in Italy, the issue was unavoidable. People around the world are accustomed to hear that bad things happen in China and Africa, but in Italy? That was too close to home for the rest of Europe and, suddenly, the head in the sand approach was no longer tenable.Continue reading“Coronavirus: More Thoughts on N95 Masks, by Survivormann99”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

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This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, we focus on Montana’s Democrat Governor, and one presidential hopeful, Steve Bullock. (See the Montana section.)

Region-Wide

Here is an article on the American Redoubt movement, written by a religion reporter who interviewed me: 20 years after Y2K, preppers ready for societal collapse.

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The 60th Annual Big Horn Outdoor Adventure Show will be held March 19th to 22nd, in Spokane.  It draws attendees from throughout the Inland northwest.

Idaho

I heard that U.S. Tactical Supply has completed their move from Albany, Oregon, to Post Falls, Idaho. They have a broad line of gear, now in a PDF catalog. If you live in the Spokane-CDA region, then drop by, and check out their wares!  In particular, see their camouflaging supplies. Their address is:

U.S. Tactical Supply Inc.
1910 E. Seltice Way
Post Falls, ID 83854

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We are pleased to welcome aboard our newest advertiser: Redoubt Scout. If you are considering a move to northern Idaho, then you should definitely take a look at their web site.

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Two Nampa men arrested after fatal stabbing outside marijuana dispensary

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Deputies Turkey Wrangling (Ada County)
Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

Preparedness Notes for Monday — March 9, 2020

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March 9th is the birthday of Cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin – the first man to ever travel in space. He was born in 1934 and died in the crash of a MiG-15-UTI fighter on March 27, 1968.

Today is also the birthday of writer John McPhee (b. 1931), a master of creative nonfiction. One of McPhee’s most widely read books is Coming into the Country, which eloquently describes the Alaskan wilderness.

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We are pleased to welcome aboard our newest advertiser: Redoubt Scout. If you are considering a move to northern Idaho, then you should definitely take a look at their web site!