The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats, and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we look at how personalities are shaped by natural surroundings.

Americans’ Personalities Shaped By Their Natural Surroundings

SurvivalBlog reader B.D. spotted this: How Americans’ Personalities Are Shaped By Their Natural Surroundings. Here is a quote:

“Reported in the journal Nature Human Behaviour this week, psychologists led by the University of Cambridge in the UK found that people who reside in mountainous US regions, such as the Rocky Mountains in the west and the Appalachian Mountains in the east, tend to have personality traits more closely associated with the “frontier settlement theory,” which says the first people from Europe who settled in the US during the colonial era were tough, individualistic, and non-conformists.

According to the researchers, this “Wild West mentality” can still be found in populations that live in mountain regions of the US.

“The harsh and remote environment of mountainous frontier regions historically attracted nonconformist settlers strongly motivated by a sense of freedom. Such rugged terrain likely favored those who closely guarded their resources and distrusted strangers, as well as those who engaged in risky explorations to secure food and territory,” lead author Friedrich Götz, from the University of Cambridge’s Department of Psychology, said in a statement.

“These traits may have distilled over time into an individualism characterized by toughness and self-reliance that lies at the heart of the American frontier ethos,” added Götz.”

Americans Plan to Stockpile Food this Fall

Over at  MSN: ‘Like we’re going into quarantine’: Americans plan to stockpile food this fall over fears of COVID-19 surge, election unrest

Terrified Utah Hiker Films Cougar Stalking Him

Linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Terrified Utah hiker films cougar stalking himJWR’s Comment: Never leave your home without a weapon.Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”





Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — October 14, 2020

The Cuban Missile Crisis began on October 14, 1962, bringing the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear conflict. Photographs were taken by a high-altitude U-2 spy plane and offered incontrovertible evidence that Soviet-made medium-range missiles were in Cuba. These missiles were capable of carrying nuclear warheads and were stationed 90 miles off the American coastline.

Today we present Part 2 of a guest article written by our friends and fellow bloggers, Don and Patrice Lewis. Patrice Lewis is the North Idaho-based Editrix of the excellent Rural Revolution homesteading blog. I strongly recommend bookmarking it. She is a regular columnist for WorldNet Daily. Patrice is also the author of a large series of “how-to” homesteading mini books, the nonfiction book The Simplicity Primer, and the co-author of How to Start a Home-based Craft Business. Most recently, Patrice branched out into writing Amish-themed Christian romance novels. The first of these is the highly-rated book The Amish Newcomer.



Lessons from the Pandemic – Part 2, by Don and Patrice Lewis

(Continued from Part 1. This concludes the article.)

Thoughts About Preparedness
  • Listen to that still, small voice and trust your instincts. Over and over again, people related a general sense that something wasn’t right as early as January (or even before). Ignoring the derision from friends and family, they stocked up when prices were low and availability was high. Sadly the Normalcy Bias is very common. It’s sometimes called the “It can’t happen to me” syndrome. For a lot of people, the Normalcy Bias prevented them from taking sensible precautions until it was too late.
  • Prepping will be called “hoarding” by many. Even if you bought your year’s worth of toilet paper ten years ago, you’re being selfish for “hoarding” it. This defies logic, but there you go. That’s why preppers tend to be quiet about their supplies.
  • The pandemic and subsequent urban riots belatedly convinced many people it was time to get out of the city. The great unplanned experiment of working remotely was such a smashing success that many people can now sever the umbilical cord that tied them to urban areas. These days, a traditionally urban career and a rural lifestyle are not necessarily incompatible.
  • Preppers aren’t the problem. One reader related how he watched the increasing customer volume in warehouse stores like Costco and knew “the herd was getting restless.” Shortly thereafter, the trickle of concerned people shopping for essentials turn into a torrent that flooded the system and stripped store shelves bare. “The preppers weren’t panicking,” he related. “It was the average regular people who were not prepared who were late to the party. A lot of people are now aware of the fragility of our food distribution system and the lack of preparation by almost everyone.”
  • Never underestimate how fast things can unravel. One day you’re going about your business, the next day that business is shut down indefinitely. Many people we surveyed while writing this article marveled at the speed at which the supply chains crumbled – the interrupted food production, the empty store shelves, and the panic and desperation of people. “Within hours, there was nothing on the shelves,” related one (prepared) reader.
  • Two is one, one is none. Eyeglasses, folks. Just think eyeglasses (as one example). Redundancy is good for everything from freezers (which currently are in desperately short supply) to cooking methods.
  • A global emergency and interrupted supply chains caused many to reexamine their priorities. What seemed vitally important before – that McMansion in a desirable zip code or the designer wardrobe – no longer seem like they’re worth it. While wealthy status symbols may not apply to most SurvivalBlog readers, the principle is the same. In light of what you’ve experienced in the past year, what might you want to do differently in the next year? This is no longer a philosophical question. This is reality.
  • It’s time to do a mental exercise and think through how broken supply chains (everything from laptop computers to prescription medicines) can affect you. How can you prepare for it? How can you mitigate these disruptions?
  • Most people underestimate how much they use. It’s helpful to document how fast you use something up, so you can plan accordingly. How fast do you use up a roll of toilet paper? A bar of soap? A jug of dish detergent? A bag of flour?
  • Plan, don’t panic. In a “bleep hits the fan” situation, people tend to panic and spend money willy-nilly without planning. The pandemic illustrated how people became consumed with stockpiling toilet paper; a product that only became difficult to acquire because of panic-buying. Even in non-panic situations, we’ve seen lots of people obsessing about one aspect of preparedness (such as firearms) to the exclusion of others. Most importantly, panic means you’re not acquiring the skills and knowledge you need to handle what tools and supplies you do have. Are you trained with those firearms? Are you skilled in canning or other food preservation methods? Are you experienced with gardening and livestock care? Everyone must start from somewhere, but don’t think just throwing money at guns and ammo and garden seeds and a pressure canner means you’re prepared.
  • Non-hybrid garden seeds are better in the long run than hybrids, since seeds can be saved from year to year. Millions of amateur gardeners discovered this too late.
  • Think about clothing. Forget fashion, think practical. Nearly all footwear is made overseas. Perhaps now is the time to stock up on shoes for growing children, or replacement snow or mud boots. Think in terms of what you need for winter protection. Thrift stores are excellent places to purchase inexpensive items in larger sizes (for growing children) or extra jeans, coats, etc. Don’t forget packs of socks and underwear for all family members.
  • Forget phantom wealth. Think tangible assets. We’d far rather have a cow than a Bitcoin. A cow reproduces; she provides milk; she produces calves; she can fill our freezer. If we were given a Bitcoin, we’d trade it for livestock or other tangibles. Bear in mind if the power goes out, electronic wealth is gone; but a flock of chickens or food preserved from your own garden will still be there.
  • The handier you are, the better you’ll do. We’ve always said preparedness is like a three-legged stool. One leg is supplies, one leg is community, and one leg is skills and knowledge. Skills such as plumbing, wiring, mechanics, carpentry, welding, gardening, food preservation, sewing, the needle arts, and endless other examples will make life easier during an economic slowdown. Learn some skills now. Don’t wait for the next catastrophe.
  • Minimalism is not a good strategy during a lockdown. If the “clutter” of books, games, puzzles, and other distractions is not around – and you can’t go outside – then your only options are to contemplate four walls or stare at a screen all day long. No fun. Make sure you can at least entertain yourself.
  • It’s no surprise the pandemic was politicized very early on. Those who were the most independent (in term of income, food, schooling, etc.) were affected the least. In most cases, politicians will act in their own best interests, and those interests almost always include expanding the reach of government. If the pandemic has done nothing else, it has revealed the hand of tyranny among our elected officials. Besides, the wheels of government grind too slowly to help in any meaningful way on an individual level. Unless you’re desperate, it’s far better not to depend on the government to save you (from anything). In other words, self-sufficiency beats dependency any day. If you aren’t self-sufficient at the moment, now is the time to start that journey. Don’t forget, being self-sufficient doesn’t have to mean you’re on your own. Remember that stool referenced earlier? A critical leg of that stool is community.
  • The chance of a severe economic downturn (another Great Depression) is very real. It’s important to position yourself with that possibility in mind. If you can grow/ raise/ produce/ preserve your own food in a rural location far from urban centers, you’re miles ahead of the curve. If you can diversify your income, reduce your debt, lower your expenses, cultivate frugality, and build community, even better. Remember the motto of the Great Depression: “Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without.”
  • Consider barter, both of skills and of goods. If money becomes tight, those with useful in-demand goods and skills will find themselves better able to barter for things they need.
  • This is not over. The repercussions from 2020 will last a long time. There is so much uncertainty about the future, on so many different levels. This pandemic has underscored how interconnected our world is, as well as the fragility of the supply chain. “The cavalry is not coming,” one reader reminded us. “You can rely on yourself and your family, perhaps on your community and certainly on God. Act accordingly.” She’s right. Now is the time to become your own first responder.
  • Be kind, be generous. The pandemic has brought out the worst in many people, and it’s brought out the best in many others. Try to put yourself in the latter category, not the former. Remember, you could lose your house, your job, or your health in the blink of an eye. Be kind and generous to those who already have.
  • Be resilient and roll with the punches. The “punch” could be anything – the loss of a loved one, the loss of a business, the loss of your home. Give yourself time to grieve, then pick yourself up and start over. People who do this report coming out stronger.
  • Don’t forget faith. It’s not a message some people want to hear, but a belief in a Higher Power goes a long way toward alleviating stress and fears during trying times. Just something to consider.
What About the Future?

There is so much uncertainty about the future, on so many different levels (medical, financial, political, societal). We don’t see things leveling off any time soon and returning to normal, whatever “normal” means.

Above all, don’t stop (or do start) prepping. It’s now being said it took a pandemic for people to realize prepping isn’t crazy. We urge everyone to take that maxim to heart. “My family always laughed at my prepper status, but they aren’t laughing anymore,” said one reader.

Take this opportunity to harden your preps by applying the principles of the three-legged stool (supplies, skills, community). Consider a few options:

  • Can you cultivate multiple income sources? So many people who tragically lost their jobs or businesses now understand the importance of having more than one source of income. If you can build up a number of different ways to earn money, then you’re not left destitute if you lose your primary job.
  • Can you reduce your debt? Debt is called a shackle for a reason. Time to break those chains.
  • Can you reduce your expenses? Low-cost living is one of the most powerful tools in anyone’s financial arsenal. The fewer expenses you have, the less susceptible you are to an economic interruption.
  • Can you transition to working from home, either full-time or with multiple part-time occupations? The less you have to venture into a hostile society, the better.
  • Can you leave the city and move somewhere less chaotic and less expensive? Not only will this be safer, but it may lower your mortgage.
  • Can you grow your own food? In a crashed economy, food becomes currency, and food security means you can’t be extorted by people seeking control over you.
  • Can you homeschool? Having control over your children’s education gives them both stability and continuity to your kids.

The pandemic and the subsequent panic has been a wake-up call. We’ve been fortunate enough to have known no one who has died from the virus or its complications. Others have suffered grievous losses. As horrific and heartbreaking as this disease has been for many people, the history of humanity shows that worse disasters will eventually occur.

Being prepared doesn’t guarantee you won’t be affected by a disaster. It just gives you a fighting chance, a survival force-multiplier.

Self-reliance is a journey, not a destination; and a journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step. It’s time to take that step.

Patrice Lewis is pleased to announce the availability of the complete collection of 52 Country Living Series ebooklets, representing over 17 years of homesteading experience. Subjects include preparedness, frugality, rural skills, food preservation, and more. Details on ordering them are available at her blog site.



JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:

Here are JWR’s Recommendations of the Week for various media and tools of interest to SurvivalBlog readers. The focus is usually on emergency communications gear, bug out bag gear, books, and movies–often with a tie-in to disaster preparedness, and links to “how-to” self-sufficiency videos. There are also links to sources for both storage food and storage containers. You will also note an emphasis on history books and historical movies. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. This week the focus is on a great David Lean film, starring Alec Guinness. It is no wonder that an anagram of his name is: Genuine Class. (See the Movies section.)

Books:

If you want to educate yourself on the law, then this should be your first reference book purchase:  Black’s Law Dictionary, 11th Edition.

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And this should be your second: ALWD Guide to Legal Citation, Fifth Edition (Aspen Coursebook)

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My #1 Son mention this book review: It can’t happen here: A review of Live Not By Lies. The book Live Not by Lies: A Manual for Christian Dissidents is available through Amazon.com and many other outlets.
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Edmund Burke: The First Conservative

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The Theft of America’s Soul: Blowing the Lid Off the Lies That Are Destroying Our Country

Continue reading“JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:”





Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — October 13, 2020

Today is the 79th birthday of songwriter and singer Paul Simon. (Born, 1941.)

Today we present Part 1 of a guest article written by our friends and fellow bloggers, Don and Patrice Lewis. Patrice is the North Idaho-based Editrix of the excellent Rural Revolution homesteading blog. I strongly recommend bookmarking it. She is a regular columnist for WorldNet Daily. Patrice is also the author of a large series of “how-to” homesteading mini books, the nonfiction book The Simplicity Primer, and the co-author of How to Start a Home-based Craft Business. Most recently, Patrice branched out into writing Amish-themed Christian romance novels. The first of these is the highly-rated book The Amish Newcomer.

Keep in mind that Round 91 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Lessons from the Pandemic – Part 1, by Don and Patrice Lewis

The year 2020 has been wacky, hasn’t it? When we celebrated Thanksgiving and Christmas in 2019, few of us anticipated what lay in store for the future.

But that’s the nature of crises – they’re unexpected. Despite being immersed in the preparedness movement for many years, the coronavirus pandemic was something we didn’t see coming. Now everyone is coping with the fiscal aftermath of what might turn into another Great Depression. To paraphrase Thomas Paine, these are the days to try men’s souls.

From a personal standpoint, our situation is additionally complicated because we’re in the process of selling our homestead and downsizing, which has created a huge element of uncertainty in our future. Where will we end up? We have no idea.

However nerve-wracking this year has been, it’s important to remember it’s nothing new. History is rife with pandemics, economic crashes, wars, violence, natural disasters, and every other challenge you can name. Every such event changed the way people lived. The Roaring Twenties was followed by the Great Depression, which was followed by World War II. These decades had an enormous impact on everyone who lived through them and forever changed the face of America. There’s no reason to think our current difficulties will be any different.

As of this writing, we’re three-quarters through the year annus horribilis. What have we learned? What have we done right? What have we done wrong? What could we have done differently? What can we do to in the future to face whatever may come?

Here are some thoughts from both us (the writers) and others (friends and blog readers) about things done right – and wrong – through the events of 2020.Continue reading“Lessons from the Pandemic – Part 1, by Don and Patrice Lewis”



SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, some good news for wolverines. (See the Montana section.)

Idaho

Write-in candidate faces off against incumbent in Custer County prosecutor race. JWR’s Comment:  You just have to love Idaho political races. Often you see “a real character” pitted against “a real character”.

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Lone Wolf, in Priest River, Idaho, is best known for its line precisely-machined Glock barrels and slides.  In early 2020, Lone Wolf Distributors was purchased by Clay Tippins, a retired Navy SEAL. As of October, 2020, the company is being re-branded as simply “Lone Wolf”, to reflect their now very broad product line, and the fact that a larger number of their products are now made in-house. Lone Wolf has invested heavily in precise CNC machining equipment. And they will soon be releasing their first complete Glock-compatible pistol, called the Lone Wolf Guardian. They also have a completely revamped web site. But rest assured: The company isn’t moving anywhere. They’ll be staying in Priest River, Idaho.

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Treasure Valley business to offer free haircuts to veterans on holiday

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”





Preparedness Notes for Monday — October 12, 2020

Today, in 1492, after sailing across the Atlantic Ocean, Italian explorer Christopher Columbus sighted a Bahamian island, believing he had reached East Asia. His expedition went ashore the same day and claimed the land for Isabella and Ferdinand of Spain, who sponsored his attempt to find a western ocean route to China, India, and the fabled gold and spice islands of Asia.

Despite the liberal hive mind’s attempt to twist this into “Indigenous People’s Day”, it is still Columbus Day.

Our big Pre-Election Sale at Elk Creek Company is underway. I’ve reduced the prices on every gun in my inventory by 8% to 18%. The chances of a contested election or a declared Harris/Biden win are fairly high, so you should consider tucking away a few pre-1899 guns, just in case. If Gun Grabber Joe Biden wins, we could end up with a ban on private party sales, nationwide. (So-called “Universal Background Checks.”) Or worse yet, universal registration of modern guns. That is near the top of the Democrat wish list. So it is important to have a few guns that are out of Federal jurisdiction–and hence exempt. And consider this: If you ever have to temporarily make your modern guns disappear, then you can at least have some pre-1899 guns close at hand for hunting and target practice. This sale ends on November 2nd, 2020. But order soon, as the brisk pace of orders will surely deplete my small remaining inventory.



Glock 43X Pistol, by Pat Cascio

To start out this review of the Glock 43X, let me first mention another Glock pistol: I love my Glock 26, and it is my usual everyday carry piece, with a spare magazine on the opposite hip. About the only time I’m not carrying my Glock 26, is when I’m testing other handguns for articles. However, I always switch back to my 26, at the end of my testing period – it just seems to fit me perfectly. The 26 came with several 10-round magazines, and they have a flat base on them. I don’t care for that, because it allows my pinky finger to dangle under the grip of the gun. For years, most folks added a Pearce Grip “pinky catcher” to the mags – just remove the factory mag bottom and replace it with the Pearce. It made a world of difference in the way the gun felt and shot. Now, you can get extended Pearce mag bottoms, that hold one, two or even three more 9mm rounds in the factory standard 10-round magazines – outstanding.

On my Glock 26, I only have a Plus One Pearce mag bottom on it – it helps with concealment a little better, than the two or three round bases do. So, my 26 has 11-rounds in the magazine, and one in the chamber – that gives me 12-rounds on-tap. On my off-side, I have a MagPul-made Glock 12-round mag for a speedy reload. I like the MagPul mags a lot. However, for the mag in my gun, I prefer the Glock factory mag for some reason. Still, I’ve never had any problems at all with the MagPul 12-round Glock 26 mags. Take it for what its worth.

When the Glock 26 first came out, around 1992, I worked for the late Colonel Rex Applegate, and we were doing the very first video for Paladin Press and we had the one and only prototype Glock 26 on-hand for use in the video. Shortly after that, Glock released the Glock 26, and many gun writers were calling int the “pocket rocket” for some reason. To my way of thinking, it was too big to carry in my pants pocket – still think its too big. However, it took off – maybe like a “rocket” back then, and it is still one of the best-selling Glocks on the market.

The Glock 26 is still a little bit “chunky” for some – and it is, to my mind, but I still love it. I do like how easily it conceals on my right hip, in an outside the waistband holster – on my belt. It is very concealable. Now enter the fairly new Glock 43X. This is one hot-seller for Glock right now – hard to come by. I had a Model 43, but it was just too small for me, so I traded it off, in short order. The Model 43X is slightly bigger, holding 10+1 rounds in a single stack magazine – the Model 26 is a double-stack magazine, so it is thicker in the body – making it a little too thick for some users. The 43X is an entirely different horse, to be sure, It actually feels thinner than it is – Glock says it is 0.87-inches wide – that’s very thin. Still, it feels great in my hand, and everyone who has handled it said the same thing.

Specifications

Let’s look at the specs on the 43X model: It has a barrel that is 3.41-inches long, and the overall length of the slide is 6.50-inches – plenty small enough for easy concealment. As already mentioned, it takes a single-stack 10-round mag, and it comes with two of them – they are inexpensive enough to purchase several more – and can be found all over the ‘net for about $20 each. The gun is 5.4-inches tall.Continue reading“Glock 43X Pistol, by Pat Cascio”



Recipe of the Week: Tim J.’s Thermal Steel Cut Oats

This recipe for “no fuss” Thermal Steel Cut Oats comes to us courtesy of blog reader and frequent content contributor Tim J.

You will need an 18-ounce Thermos-style vacuum jar. (Weighs 1 pound.)

Ingredients:
  • Slightly less than 1/2 cup (minus 1 tablespoon) of steel cut oats.  Note: Do not use the quick (3-minute) variety of oats.
  • 1 & 3/4 cups boiling water
  • 1/2 cup of your favorite dried fruit
Directions:
  1. Combine the oats and boiling hot water in a thermal jar.
  2. Seal it tightly.
  3. Shake the jar.
  4. Let sit on its side for 8 hours (overnight.)
Chef’s Notes:

Preparation time is very quick, basically the time required to boil the water.

The containers allow for sealed transport on the move, like hiking.

A home, I make it at night. I store any leftovers in a ziploc twist top in the refrigerator, and microwave before eating.

You can vary the water amount for the desired consistency.

This can be scaled up, for groups.

This requires patience and planning, it is for your next meal.

This is what I use:

For some reason, thermal cooking with less than 18 oz doesn’t seem to work, I think it is an issue of insufficient thermal mass.

I learned this recipe from some former Force Recon Marines, decades ago. They would also cook bulk grains while on the move, with minimal fire. They were using the old glass thermal jars, which I seemed to break on a regular basis. The newer metal vacuum containers are totally superior.

Also, I have been having some issues with dried fruit, digestive (old fruit) and chewing (hard fruit). I have found that reconstituting the fruit, boiling water in a thermal container for 30-40 minutes eliminates these issues. This works well with Raisins, Prunes, Peaches, Pears, Apples, Cherries, and Blueberries.

Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? In this weekly recipe column, we place emphasis on recipes that use long term storage foods, recipes for wild game, dutch oven and slow cooker recipes, and any that use home garden produce. If you have any favorite recipes, then please send them via e-mail. Thanks!



Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at galloping gun and ammunition sales. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Weaker U.S. dollar, stimulus hopes drive gold price up 2%

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Arkadiusz Sieroń: Is Gold Market Going Back Into The 1970s?

Economy & Finance:

Trump Raises Stimulus Offer to $1.8 Trillion Days After Halting Negotiations

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This Zero Hedge article is not about bird-watching: Crane Counts In North American Cities Drop For First Time Since 2017

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Microsoft Offers Permanent Work-from-Home Option with Pay-Cuts if Employees Move to Cheaper Cities or Countries

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Also at Wolf Street: Cinema Chains Near Collapse: The Problem Beyond the Pandemic

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”



The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

Despite a largely rural population and relatively little international travel, the bubonic plague wiped out about a third of Europe’s population in the mid-14th century. Today, over half of the world’s seven billion people live in cities visited daily by international travelers. We are more urbanized and densely packed, sustained by food and water that arrives from distant locations, relying on delivery systems and economic operations that may shut down if there is a lethal contagious virus spreading and people understandably do not report to work. Even those with the courage to face the risk may change their mind when they realize they could bring a fatal virus home to their families.

Those that do keep working, medics and police in particular, are likely to catch the virus. We should expect that most economic activity, public services, production of essential goods, and transportation may cease. To minimize inventory costs, businesses, even hospitals, now have “just-in-time” delivery of supplies, sourced from lowest-cost providers on the other side of the world. Even if your local trucker decides to continue working, with multiple long-distance suppliers and shippers involved in moving foodstuffs, a contagious pandemic would certainly disrupt the flow of essential goods. Panic-buying and hoarding will add to the problem of getting food to the population. How long will our public water supplies continue functioning when maintenance personnel fail to report for work? Our highly interdependent, just-in-time delivery economy is very vulnerable to disruptions. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an expert in risk and thinking about rare events, points this out: “Our connected world appears to be more efficient. But when there is a disturbance, the setback is much harder to handle. Not only are we building riskier systems, but also the risks involved in failure are a lot larger.”

When the availability of food and water is threatened, widespread marauding may occur. In 1977, New York City suffered a lightning strike that caused a power failure for one night. Over 3,000 arrests were made for looting, 400 policemen were injured, 500 fires were started. In 2005, after Hurricane Katrina, looting rapidly spread throughout New Orleans, often in broad daylight and in the presence of police officers. One third of New Orleans police officers deserted their posts. Given the example of these and other, relatively small disasters, what should we expect in the event of the far more serious scenario of a deadly viral pandemic? Pandemonium.” – Drew Miller, from his prescient The American Interest article titled The Age of Designer Plagues,  September 12, 2016.