Inflation: How Bad Could it Get? – Part 1, by Banker Bob

Much of my career has been in banking or related financial services including day-to-day, hands-on management of large-scale transaction processing centers for one of the world’s largest banks.

Question 1: What’s your personal measure of inflation?

Weekly grocery bill? Filling up your tank at the gas pump? 9mm or 5.56 ammo when you find some? Medical bills? Your individual perceptions are influenced by personal purchasing preferences, geographic differences, urban vs. rural spending habits, size of family, and income level.

For starters, take a very skeptical look at the 7.5% CPI reported as the 12-month increase for January 2022. The figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are the ones most often cited in the news. It’s hard to ignore them especially the comparison to the CPI as reported in 1979, 1980, and 1981 which reached a high in March 1980 of 14.8%. That number in isolation provides little economic context. The Fed Funds overnight rate hit 19% in December 1980 and again in June 1981. Mortgage interest rates peaked at 18.5% in 1981 while the prime rate reached 21%. In early February 2022, 30-year fixed rate mortgages ranged from 3.75% to 4.125%. The prime rate for large corporate borrowers was 3.25%, and Fed Funds had a weighted average of 0.08% (less than 1/10 of 1% or very close to zero!)

According to the US Energy Information Agency at the national average fuel price was $2.00 at the time of the election in 2020. The comparable price today is $3.37 or a 68% increase in 15 months. Even that high price will look cheap in another 9 months. Energy prices ripple through the economy making them an important leading indicator.

There are two major problems using CPI as your yardstick. First, these published numbers are a trailing indicator and not a measure of what you will pay next month for groceries, gas, heating oil, or ammo. Second, by its own published record, the BLS has made three major changes since 1980 in its methodology (1987, 1998, and 2018) morphing from what was previously a comparison of a fixed basket of goods (COGI or cost of goods index) to a lifestyle choice of substitutable items (COLI or cost of living index). Suffice to say that comparing CPI for 1980 to 2022 is a rigged way of reporting a lower rate of real inflation. (For readers interested in the details, check out the BLS reported changes. As you can imagine, it’s like comparing the cost of one pound of fresh ground hamburger at the local butcher shop in 1980 to four Quarter Pounders at a McDonald’s drive through in 2022. What can a good bureaucrat do to keep a lid on anxiety? Change the rules…

In the simplest terms, prices rise when demand outstrips supply and when massive deficit spending is paid for by increasing the money supply and keeping interest rates artificially low.Continue reading“Inflation: How Bad Could it Get? – Part 1, by Banker Bob”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

This weekly column is a collection of short snippets: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. We may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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From Frank S.: How a rather mundane space storm knocked out 40 SpaceX satellites. Here is an excerpt:

“In recent months, sky watchers have been treated to some of the most beautiful auroras in years as the sun enters a period of greater activity. Moderate and strong solar storms in October and November spurred the dancing purple and green lights in Earth’s atmosphere, delighting scientists and photographers.

But last week, SpaceX witnessed a different stunning impact of the charged particles hurtling through space when 40 of their small Starlink communications satellites were knocked out a day after they launched. The loss could cost the company tens of millions of dollars. Starlink ultimately will consist of tens of thousands of small satellites in low Earth orbit.

According to a SpaceX news release, 40 out of 49 Starlink satellites will reenter the atmosphere or already have entered after encountering a geomagnetic storm on Feb. 4. The satellite fleet, intended to bring low-cost Internet service to remote areas of the planet, was launched on Feb. 3 at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The company said the satellites are not expected to create debris or hit the ground on reentry, instead being incinerated during the fiery reentry.”

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Reader CW64 offered this suggestion:

“Regarding the recent post by SaraSue; an often overlooked reason for leaving a faucet or two open is to relieve pressure build-up in the pipes if they freeze. It is the pressure that typically causes damage. The This Old House television show has a good video on the topic.”

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Mrs. Alaska had some advice on speedy seed germination:

“Most seeds germinate best at soil temperatures between 60 and 80 degrees.  For this reason, many gardeners place heat pads beneath their seedling pots.  However, we live off-grid and any heat producing item draws a lot of power.  What to do?  I put cookie sheets over the two pilot lights on my gas stove, and even inside the (cold) oven, and fill each one with seed pots.  The metal sheet temperature rises to 75 – 80 degrees F over the whole surface.
Proof:  the spaghetti squash seeds that I planted 1 inch deep on Feb 2 were 1 inch tall (above the soil) on Feb 9!  I hope that this approach will enable me to start many slow growing, warmth loving plants in my cold climate and rather chilly cabin.
Once the seedlings sprout two true leaves, I move them from the heating tray to other locations, making room for others to get off to a warm and cozy start.”

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — February 15, 2022

February 15th 1809: Birthday of Cyrus Hall McCormick, the inventor of a mechanical reaper.

Gun developer Richard “Dick” Casull was born on February 15, 1931. Casull passed away peacefully at home on May 6, 2018 after a long battle with cancer. Dick Casull is most famous for his design of the .454 Casull revolver, along with many other handgun and rifle designs. He held 17 firearm patents.

Today, I’d also like to wish Mike Williamson (SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large) a Happy Birthday!

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 99 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 99 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

An Emergency Household Water Supply, by St. Funogas

As we saw in 2021 here in the U.S., grid-down events lasting several days can occur at any time of the year. Some of the major ones making the headlines were caused by forest fires, multi-state tornados, and near record-setting wind storms. Most of us deal more regularly with local blackouts caused by wind and ice storms, outages that can happen anywhere at any time. Are we prepared?

We take water for granted. It’s always there when we open a tap or flush the toilet and often we’re not prepared when it’s not readily available for a several-day period. Here, I present an emergency backup system that can be fairly easy and inexpensive to install depending on the design of your plumbing system. For those who think the world is headed for rough seas ahead and possibly longer power outages, a backup water system could be a wise idea even if it means spending a little more money than you’d like.

PLANNING AHEAD

The year before I bought my homestead property a big ice storm in my area took the grid down for four days. I factored that into my plans when I started building the following year. Using the two-is-one-and-one-is-none philosophy, all of my systems have backups that work a different way such as a propane heater replacing my electric well-house heater. Since my solar panels are grid-tied for now, my plumbing system is designed using a 220-volt well pump, 110-volt pressure pump, and 110-volt well-house heaters.Continue reading“An Emergency Household Water Supply, by St. Funogas”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, we focus on some recent skiing accidents. (See the Idaho and Oregon sections.)

Region-Wide

Moving Grain: Inland Waterways Users Board Reactivated After Long Wait

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NPR (aka National Pravda Radio) is once again bashing The American Redoubt movement. This echoes a British journalist’s recent tirade. Both are mistakenly labeling the movement as theocratic.

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Federal judge reverses Trump era wildlife decision, restoring protections for the gray wolf.

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More bison removed than usual from Yellowstone.

Idaho

Two people, including child, Life Flighted off Silver Mountain with serious injuries.

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Are you interested in a conservative charter school that has minimal government entanglement? If so, then see the Redoubt News report on the nascent Selkirk Classical Academy, in Bonners Ferry. They plan to use Hillsdale College curricula. They have a “meet and greet” Open House scheduled for the afternoon of Saturday, February 19th, 2022.

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H.B. 475, a bill now before the Idaho legislature would make private militias once again legal, by repealing Idaho Statute 46-802.

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Meet the Pattersons: brother and sister from McCall in second Winter Olympics.

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Fatal crash on Highway 95 north of Riggins. JWR Asks:  How do you get into a one-car wreck on 95 in Lucille? This must be one of the safest and best-engineered stretches of 4-lane highway in the state.  I suspect that the driver was either drunk, or asleep at the wheel.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Between these law-made agencies and the spontaneously-formed ones, who then can hesitate? The one class are slow, stupid, extravagant, unadaptive, corrupt, and obstructive: can any point out in the other, vices that balance these? It is true that trade has its dishonesties, speculation its follies. These are evils inevitably entailed by the existing imperfections of humanity. It is equally true, however, that these imperfections of humanity are shared by State-functionaries; and that being unchecked in them by the same stern discipline, they grow to far worse results.” – Herbert Spencer

Preparedness Notes for Monday — February 14, 2022

On this day in 1859, Oregon was admitted to the Union as the 33rd State.

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I just noticed that we are now down to less than 35 of the SurvivalBlog Archive 2005-2021 archive USB sticks. The first batch was 1,000 sticks, and the second one was 600. This may be the final batch that we’ll have available until January of 2023. So order yours, soon!

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Today we present another review article that was written by our Field Gear Editor Emeritus, Pat Cascio.

Rocky Winter Boots, by Pat Cascio

If your hands and feet get cold, the rest of your body isn’t far behind. This is a fact! Going back to my high school days, I attended a private Lutheran High School, and it was about 13-miles from where I lived – that is a long, long distance in a big city (Chicago) to travel. On a good day, it would take me about an hour and a half to get to school, and home at the end of the day, on the CTA (Chicago Transit Authority) bus. As most big-city dwellers will know, buses usually make a stop about every other block, if someone is standing at a bus stop sign.

During the warmer months, there wasn’t any air conditioning on the buses back then. And in the winter months, and the heaters didn’t work very well at all – except near the front of the bus where the drivers sat. More often than not, during the winter, especially if there was fresh snow on the ground, the buses almost always ran 15-minutes late – ugh! Chicago isn’t called the Windy City, for nothing. During the Winter months, the wind really kicks up, and if you are standing on a street corner, waiting on a bus, then you got cold – just that simple. I usually wore my high school jacket – it looked cool, but it wasn’t warm once the wind started blowing. Add some blowing or falling snow into the mix, and you got cold, very cold.

Back in the day – circa the mid-1960s to late-1960s, there weren’t any such thing as insulated boots – just wasn’t any such thing outside of miitary “Mickey Mouse” boots. So, leather shoes were the uniform of the day, and they were not – and still are not – very warm to wear in winter months. Back then, if your shoes happened to get wet, then you were all that much more miserable. In 1969, Gore-Tex was invented. However it wasn’t very well known back then, and it was pretty expensive. Add in some light-weight insulation to waterproofed clothing, and it was a miracle, and you stayed warm and dry.

I’ve been wearing insulated and waterproof boots for about 35+ years now – during the winter months, and they keep my feel warm and dry. This is important since I have Type 2 Diabetes. You have to keep your feet warm and dry so, you have good circulation in your feet. If you don’t, then you can easily lose some toes, or even your feet if the blood isn’t circulating down to your feet. We live in Western Oregon these days – going on our 16th year, and as a rule, we don’t get a lot of snow or a lot of very cold days. However, when it does get down below freezing, I reach for a pair of waterproof and insulated winter boots. My gloves are also insulated. You can’t be too careful when you have Diabetes 2.

As a rule, I wear waterproof hikers most of the year, however at times, I will reach for a pair of hikers or athletic shoes that aren’t waterproof – especially in the hot Summer months. I’ve experimented with several brands of insulated/waterproof boots over the years, and I’ve found that the ones made by Rocky, to be about the best. I’ve owned several different pair over the years. One pair, I had resoled twice – unfortunately, the second time around, the boots squeaked – a lot when I walked. I finally gave that pair away.

Now, save your hate mail: I’ve done a lot of research, and found out that about 80% – 95% of our footwear is made in China. Sad to say, when we go to war with China – and it will happen – if we don’t win right away, many of us will be barefoot ‘cause there won’t be much more footwear coming into the USA. I know, I know, none of us like “contributing” to the Red Chinese economy, but it can’t be avoided. One of the best boot makers in the USA happens to be Danner, right here in Portland, Oregon. Their top of the line boots are still made here in the States. However, the majority of their boots are now made in mainland China. That had to happen – everyone else is doing it, and in order to compete in today’s market, “you have to do what you have to do”, to stay in business.Continue reading“Rocky Winter Boots, by Pat Cascio”

Recipe of the Week: Lean Beef Goulash

The following recipe for Lean Beef Goulash was kindly sent by SurvivalBlog reader C.K.. She says: “I use lean beef, to keep this from tasting like some old-time greasy goulash.”

Ingredients
  • 1 to 1.25 pounds Ground Beef (93% lean — or even more lean)
  • 1-1/2 cups minced onions
  • 1 tablespoon minced garlic
  • 1 can (15 ounces) of tomato sauce
  • 1 can (14-1/2 ounces) of diced tomatoes
  • 1-1/2 cups water
  • 2 tablespoons soy sauce
  • 1 tablespoon paprika
  • 2 teaspoons dried Italian seasoning
  • 1 teaspoon seasoned salt (or less, if on a low-salt diet.)
  • 1 bay leaf
  • 1 cup uncooked elbow macaroni
Directions
  1. Heat a large stock pot over medium heat until hot. Add Ground Beef, onions, and garlic; cook 8 to 10 minutes, breaking into 1/2-inch crumbles, stirring occasionally, or until onions are translucent.
  2. Stir in tomato sauce, diced tomatoes, water, soy sauce, paprika, Italian seasoning, seasoned salt, and bay leaf; bring to a boil.
  3. Reduce heat, cover tightly and simmer 20 minutes, stirring occasionally.
  4. Stir in macaroni, cover and simmer 20 minutes or until pasta is tender, stirring occasionally. Remove from heat.
  5. Remove and discard the bay leaf.
  6. Garnish with parmesan cheese, if desired.

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Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? In this weekly recipe column, we place emphasis on recipes that use long term storage foods, recipes for wild game, dutch oven and slow cooker recipes, and any that use home garden produce. If you have any favorite recipes, then please send them via e-mail. Thanks!

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we hear war drums and take a look at the precious metals market.

Precious Metals:

It is noteworthy that the spot price of silver was $22.50 per Troy ounce on February 4th. When I checked over the weekend, it was at $23.57. I expect a jump at the opening bell in the Asian markets on Monday morning. And if war breaks out in Ukraine, then we can expect substantial jumps in all of the precious metals prices. In percentage terms, silver will likely move the most, since it is still under-valued.  Update, Monday Morning Update: We did indeed see the DJIA down, and precious metals up. Silver $23.73, and gold: $1862.10. With war reportedly imminent in Ukraine, no surprises there. Expect equities plunge protection to kick in, shortly.

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“Foolish” Fed Rate-Hike Will “Cause Hyperinflationary Great Depression”, John Williams Says Hold Physical Gold.

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Epic Silver Coins Found at Bank – Silver Coin Collection Dump for Face Value!

Economy & Finance:

Breitbart‘s report on a meeting that will be held today: Fed Announces a Closed Meeting for Monday to Discuss Discount Rate. JWR’s Comments:  A 20 basis point increase soon, and more increases later this year?  The yield curve is already crashing, in anticipation.

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Published on Friday at Zero Hedge: Oil Soars; Ruble, Stocks Tumble On Report “US Believes” Putin Will Launch “Horrific, Bloody” Invasion Of Ukraine. JWR’s Comments: Outside of the intelligence community itself, there are three types of people in Washington D.C.: 1.) Career government people and a handful of elected politicians and appointees who are read-on for Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI) who get to see actual intelligence products and summaries, 2.) People who hear a few leaks and rumors, and 3.) The utterly clueless. It is the latter who are the most numerous.

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SEC Adopts New Disclosure Rules For Private Equity Shops And Hedge Funds.

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At Wolf Street: It Only Took $11 Trillion in Free Money plus Forbearance & Eviction Bans to Perform this Miracle on Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Third-Party Collections, and Bankruptcies.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — February 13, 2022

Today is the birthday of General Chuck Yeager (born, 1923), the first man to break the sound barrier. He passed away in 2020.

February 13th is also the birthday of Robert Charles R.C. Sproul (born 1939, died December 14, 2017), a well-respected American Calvinist theologian.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 99 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679,
  2. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 99 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Fade to Gray: Files and Documents – Part 3, by J.M.

(Continued from Part 2. This concludes the article.)

Document Tools

Being able to store sensitive files and minimizing the chances of someone finding them is useful, but you still need to be able to view and edit the files in a secure and private manner without leaving details on what files you’ve worked on and what they contain all over your system (or the Internet). Many of the commercially available document and file editing tools such as Microsoft Office store a lot of information on what files you’ve worked on and potentially what’s stored inside them (for your own good, of course), and Microsoft has pretty much abandoned the standalone edition of Office and is forcing people to start using the online Office 365 version. Using free tools like Google Docs compounds the problem by moving all of your content under Google’s control. To further increase the privacy and security of your sensitive content we’re going to set up some free tools on the removable drive that provide all of the functionality you need but do a really good job of protecting your privacy.

The first tool set we’re going to use is called LibreOffice, which is a free and open source office suite similar to Microsoft Office. It includes:

  • Writer – Documents (similar to Microsoft Word)
  • Calc – Spreadsheets (similar to Microsoft Excel)
  • Draw – Diagrams (similar to Microsoft Visio)
  • Presentation (similar to Microsoft PowerPoint)
  • Database (similar to Microsoft Access)
  • Other tools

One really nice feature of LibreOffice is that it can open most equivalent Microsoft Office documents – LibreOffice Writer can open most MS Word documents (.doc, .docx), LibreOffice Calc can open most MS Excel spreadsheets (.xls, .xlsx, .csv, etc.), etc. That allows you to keep using files you may already have. Note that LibreOffice has its own file format called the Open Document Format, with file extensions that start with ‘.ODx’, where ‘x’ is different for each application. Here’s a complete list of the various file types LibreOffice supports – https://fileinfo.com/software/libreoffice/libreoffice.

Most LibreOffice tools are very similar to their MS Office counterparts, so I’m not going to go over how to use them, but the LibreOffice folks have created some great documentation for each of the tools.Continue reading“Fade to Gray: Files and Documents – Part 3, by J.M.”