Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the results of the recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) emergency meeting. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

Gold touches $1,900 for the first time since June on flare up in Russia-Ukraine tensions.

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Gold Is The Geopolitical Hedge Of First Resort, Goldman Sees $2150 Within 12 Months.

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Gold price is ready for ‘substantial’ move as inflation gets worse, war looms in Europe – Gary Wagner.

Economy & Finance:

Unwinding a $9 Trillion balance sheet: Fed minutes show central bank ready to raise rates, shrink balance sheet soon.

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At MSN Money: Two reasons Americans just dove into credit card debt faster than they have in 22 years.

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From the FOMC minutes: The Fed is allowing banks to perform overnight lending on securities.

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Now on the Fed’s Table: Sell Bonds Outright to Push Up Long-Term Yields, Steepen the Yield Curve, and Get Rid of MBS.

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Gold up, and stocks down: Dow drops more than 600 points in worst decline of 2022 as Russia-Ukraine tensions worry investors.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — February 17, 2022

February 17th, 1844 was the birthday of Aaron Montgomery Ward, founder of the mail-order business Montgomery Ward.

On this day in 1838, hundreds of Voortrekkers traveling along the Blaukraans River in the Natal region were massacred by Zulus. This tragedy became known as the Weneen Massacre.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 99 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 99 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Inflation: How Bad Could it Get? – Part 2, by Banker Bob

(Continued from Part 1. This concludes the article.)

No matter what third-party players do on the international stage (China, Russia, Iran – in that order), this country may be on the road to a slow-rolling collapse over the next eighteen months. All the things that currently get news coverage are like the opening act before Garth Brooks takes the concert stage. Ukraine – So what? Taiwan – Well, it had to happen. Faltering economy – All Trump’s fault. West Texas crude oil above $120 per barrel – Just park your truck. And any of these things could result in higher prices for energy and bigger supply chain problems for electronics and medical supplies plus an additional spurt to inflation which will have already spread to the rest of the global economy.

As long as the electrical grid, internet, and financial processing networks continue to work at some level, relatively limited urban violence but rapidly rising crime rates seem likely and will be hell for the merchants and local residents experiencing it. Peaceful protests complete with torched police cars and burning buildings will most likely be concentrated in the inner-city areas of major metro areas. Los Angeles, Houston, Portland, Milwaukee, Detroit, Newark, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, and New Yok City. These conspicuously blue cities have already experienced peaceful protesters and sympathetic prosecutors as their own warmup gigs. The new protests may be triggered before November on relatively trivial fake news.

All bets are off if there are major terrorist attacks on refineries, the power grid, or the telecom networks including cell and internet. If that happens, kiss normal “Goodbye” – in a rush. Meantime, life won’t be exactly normal in either small cities or suburbia or even fly-over country. One of the many consequence of sustained inflation is government budget over-runs, and this will hit municipal and state governments as soon as real inflation goes beyond 10% or perhaps earlier. What will happen next and is already starting to occur is that municipal bond underwriters will not be able to place the massive amount of city and state bond funding that will be needed just to finance daily operations and locked-in pension payments.Continue reading“Inflation: How Bad Could it Get? – Part 2, by Banker Bob”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats, and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we further examine the Solar Storm CME threat.

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Andre mentioned this, at SpaceWeather: Huge Farside Explosion. Yet again, we’ve witnessed a large CME that would be devastating, had it been Earth-facing. We are playing Russian Roulette.  Get ready, folks! Here is a  quote from the article:

“Something just exploded on the farside of the sun–and it was big. NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft recorded a magnificent coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging during the late hours of Feb. 15th.”

Why Solar Storms Could Be The Biggest Risks To Technology

Over at Forbes: Why Solar Storms Could Be The Biggest Risks To Technology.

Moving to Texas, Florida and Alabama to Work At Home

Reader H.L. spotted this: Americans move to Texas, Florida and Alabama as more work from home since COVID.

A Bad Solar Storm Could Cause an ‘Internet Apocalypse’

Reported by Wired, last August: A Bad Solar Storm Could Cause an ‘Internet Apocalypse’. Here is the opening paragraph of that piece:

“Scientists have known for decades that an extreme solar storm, or coronal mass ejection, could damage electrical grids and potentially cause prolonged blackouts. The repercussions would be felt everywhere from global supply chains and transportation to internet and GPS access. Less examined until now, though, is the impact such a solar emission could have on internet infrastructure specifically. New research shows that the failures could be catastrophic, particularly for the undersea cables that underpin the global internet.”

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — February 16, 2022

February 16th is the birthday of Edgar John Bergen, (1903-1978) an American actor, comedian, and radio performer, best known for his proficiency in ventriloquism and his characters Charlie McCarthy and Mortimer Snerd. He is also the father of actress Candice Bergen.

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 99 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 99 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Inflation: How Bad Could it Get? – Part 1, by Banker Bob

Much of my career has been in banking or related financial services including day-to-day, hands-on management of large-scale transaction processing centers for one of the world’s largest banks.

Question 1: What’s your personal measure of inflation?

Weekly grocery bill? Filling up your tank at the gas pump? 9mm or 5.56 ammo when you find some? Medical bills? Your individual perceptions are influenced by personal purchasing preferences, geographic differences, urban vs. rural spending habits, size of family, and income level.

For starters, take a very skeptical look at the 7.5% CPI reported as the 12-month increase for January 2022. The figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are the ones most often cited in the news. It’s hard to ignore them especially the comparison to the CPI as reported in 1979, 1980, and 1981 which reached a high in March 1980 of 14.8%. That number in isolation provides little economic context. The Fed Funds overnight rate hit 19% in December 1980 and again in June 1981. Mortgage interest rates peaked at 18.5% in 1981 while the prime rate reached 21%. In early February 2022, 30-year fixed rate mortgages ranged from 3.75% to 4.125%. The prime rate for large corporate borrowers was 3.25%, and Fed Funds had a weighted average of 0.08% (less than 1/10 of 1% or very close to zero!)

According to the US Energy Information Agency at the national average fuel price was $2.00 at the time of the election in 2020. The comparable price today is $3.37 or a 68% increase in 15 months. Even that high price will look cheap in another 9 months. Energy prices ripple through the economy making them an important leading indicator.

There are two major problems using CPI as your yardstick. First, these published numbers are a trailing indicator and not a measure of what you will pay next month for groceries, gas, heating oil, or ammo. Second, by its own published record, the BLS has made three major changes since 1980 in its methodology (1987, 1998, and 2018) morphing from what was previously a comparison of a fixed basket of goods (COGI or cost of goods index) to a lifestyle choice of substitutable items (COLI or cost of living index). Suffice to say that comparing CPI for 1980 to 2022 is a rigged way of reporting a lower rate of real inflation. (For readers interested in the details, check out the BLS reported changes. As you can imagine, it’s like comparing the cost of one pound of fresh ground hamburger at the local butcher shop in 1980 to four Quarter Pounders at a McDonald’s drive through in 2022. What can a good bureaucrat do to keep a lid on anxiety? Change the rules…

In the simplest terms, prices rise when demand outstrips supply and when massive deficit spending is paid for by increasing the money supply and keeping interest rates artificially low.Continue reading“Inflation: How Bad Could it Get? – Part 1, by Banker Bob”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

This weekly column is a collection of short snippets: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. We may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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From Frank S.: How a rather mundane space storm knocked out 40 SpaceX satellites. Here is an excerpt:

“In recent months, sky watchers have been treated to some of the most beautiful auroras in years as the sun enters a period of greater activity. Moderate and strong solar storms in October and November spurred the dancing purple and green lights in Earth’s atmosphere, delighting scientists and photographers.

But last week, SpaceX witnessed a different stunning impact of the charged particles hurtling through space when 40 of their small Starlink communications satellites were knocked out a day after they launched. The loss could cost the company tens of millions of dollars. Starlink ultimately will consist of tens of thousands of small satellites in low Earth orbit.

According to a SpaceX news release, 40 out of 49 Starlink satellites will reenter the atmosphere or already have entered after encountering a geomagnetic storm on Feb. 4. The satellite fleet, intended to bring low-cost Internet service to remote areas of the planet, was launched on Feb. 3 at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The company said the satellites are not expected to create debris or hit the ground on reentry, instead being incinerated during the fiery reentry.”

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Reader CW64 offered this suggestion:

“Regarding the recent post by SaraSue; an often overlooked reason for leaving a faucet or two open is to relieve pressure build-up in the pipes if they freeze. It is the pressure that typically causes damage. The This Old House television show has a good video on the topic.”

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Mrs. Alaska had some advice on speedy seed germination:

“Most seeds germinate best at soil temperatures between 60 and 80 degrees.  For this reason, many gardeners place heat pads beneath their seedling pots.  However, we live off-grid and any heat producing item draws a lot of power.  What to do?  I put cookie sheets over the two pilot lights on my gas stove, and even inside the (cold) oven, and fill each one with seed pots.  The metal sheet temperature rises to 75 – 80 degrees F over the whole surface.
Proof:  the spaghetti squash seeds that I planted 1 inch deep on Feb 2 were 1 inch tall (above the soil) on Feb 9!  I hope that this approach will enable me to start many slow growing, warmth loving plants in my cold climate and rather chilly cabin.
Once the seedlings sprout two true leaves, I move them from the heating tray to other locations, making room for others to get off to a warm and cozy start.”

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — February 15, 2022

February 15th 1809: Birthday of Cyrus Hall McCormick, the inventor of a mechanical reaper.

Gun developer Richard “Dick” Casull was born on February 15, 1931. Casull passed away peacefully at home on May 6, 2018 after a long battle with cancer. Dick Casull is most famous for his design of the .454 Casull revolver, along with many other handgun and rifle designs. He held 17 firearm patents.

Today, I’d also like to wish Mike Williamson (SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large) a Happy Birthday!

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 99 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 99 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

An Emergency Household Water Supply, by St. Funogas

As we saw in 2021 here in the U.S., grid-down events lasting several days can occur at any time of the year. Some of the major ones making the headlines were caused by forest fires, multi-state tornados, and near record-setting wind storms. Most of us deal more regularly with local blackouts caused by wind and ice storms, outages that can happen anywhere at any time. Are we prepared?

We take water for granted. It’s always there when we open a tap or flush the toilet and often we’re not prepared when it’s not readily available for a several-day period. Here, I present an emergency backup system that can be fairly easy and inexpensive to install depending on the design of your plumbing system. For those who think the world is headed for rough seas ahead and possibly longer power outages, a backup water system could be a wise idea even if it means spending a little more money than you’d like.

PLANNING AHEAD

The year before I bought my homestead property a big ice storm in my area took the grid down for four days. I factored that into my plans when I started building the following year. Using the two-is-one-and-one-is-none philosophy, all of my systems have backups that work a different way such as a propane heater replacing my electric well-house heater. Since my solar panels are grid-tied for now, my plumbing system is designed using a 220-volt well pump, 110-volt pressure pump, and 110-volt well-house heaters.Continue reading“An Emergency Household Water Supply, by St. Funogas”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, we focus on some recent skiing accidents. (See the Idaho and Oregon sections.)

Region-Wide

Moving Grain: Inland Waterways Users Board Reactivated After Long Wait

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NPR (aka National Pravda Radio) is once again bashing The American Redoubt movement. This echoes a British journalist’s recent tirade. Both are mistakenly labeling the movement as theocratic.

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Federal judge reverses Trump era wildlife decision, restoring protections for the gray wolf.

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More bison removed than usual from Yellowstone.

Idaho

Two people, including child, Life Flighted off Silver Mountain with serious injuries.

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Are you interested in a conservative charter school that has minimal government entanglement? If so, then see the Redoubt News report on the nascent Selkirk Classical Academy, in Bonners Ferry. They plan to use Hillsdale College curricula. They have a “meet and greet” Open House scheduled for the afternoon of Saturday, February 19th, 2022.

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H.B. 475, a bill now before the Idaho legislature would make private militias once again legal, by repealing Idaho Statute 46-802.

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Meet the Pattersons: brother and sister from McCall in second Winter Olympics.

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Fatal crash on Highway 95 north of Riggins. JWR Asks:  How do you get into a one-car wreck on 95 in Lucille? This must be one of the safest and best-engineered stretches of 4-lane highway in the state.  I suspect that the driver was either drunk, or asleep at the wheel.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Between these law-made agencies and the spontaneously-formed ones, who then can hesitate? The one class are slow, stupid, extravagant, unadaptive, corrupt, and obstructive: can any point out in the other, vices that balance these? It is true that trade has its dishonesties, speculation its follies. These are evils inevitably entailed by the existing imperfections of humanity. It is equally true, however, that these imperfections of humanity are shared by State-functionaries; and that being unchecked in them by the same stern discipline, they grow to far worse results.” – Herbert Spencer

Preparedness Notes for Monday — February 14, 2022

On this day in 1859, Oregon was admitted to the Union as the 33rd State.

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I just noticed that we are now down to less than 35 of the SurvivalBlog Archive 2005-2021 archive USB sticks. The first batch was 1,000 sticks, and the second one was 600. This may be the final batch that we’ll have available until January of 2023. So order yours, soon!

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Today we present another review article that was written by our Field Gear Editor Emeritus, Pat Cascio.