Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at some effects of rising interest rates.

Precious Metals:

Gold rises in the face of more market turmoil.

o  o  o

Gold hasn’t lost its luster even as the Fed continues to raise rates – State Street’s George Milling-Stanley.

o  o  o

Alasdair Macleod: A Perfect Storm in Banking Is Brewing.

Economy & Finance:

CBS News: MoneyWatch: Stock market drops as mortgage rate climbs.

o  o  o

Transcript: Interview With Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass.  Therein, Bass discusses the China-Taiwan situation, the chip shortage, interest rates, and global oil supply/demand.

o  o  o

Over at the leftist The Hill: Five ways the Fed’s interest rate hikes will impact Americans.

o  o  o

Fed hikes its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point, the biggest increase since 1994.

o  o  o

At Wolf Street: Morning After J-Pow, Second Time in a Row.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“There’s not much you can do about the bias of the media other than try to counteract it by putting the truth out best you can, and the Internet has been a great weapon for holding the media accountable.” – Dr. Ron Paul

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — June 19, 2022

June 19, 1834 was the birthday of Charles Haddon (C.H.) Spurgeon, who died 31 January 1892. He was a British Particular Baptist preacher.

—

Today’s feature article is by our Field Gear Editor, Thomas Christianson.

—

We are in need of entries for  Round 101 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 101 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

A Log Home in the Woods, By Thomas Christianson

More than eight years ago now, my wife and I fled suburbia for a log home in the woods. A log home in the woods sounds very idyllic, but the reality may not be as charming as the concept. Based on our limited experience, I have some advice for people who may be considering a similar flight.

Not Necessarily a Log Home

If you own enough timber and have enough time to fell, prepare and season the timber from your own property, a log home may be a good option. But if you are buying the materials from someone else, there may be better options.

Solid log walls simply require more board feet of wood than other forms of construction. Since wood is expensive, a home built with solid log walls may be more expensive than other alternatives.

Solid log walls also have a lower R-value than insulated walls of similar thickness. This may make it more difficult to heat a log home than other alternatives.

Log homes require a great deal of maintenance. In succession, I stain one of the outside walls of my home each year, so that each of the walls is stained once every four years. That is quite a bit more labor-intensive than the maintenance required for most other types of siding.

My wife and I chose a log home for aesthetic reasons. We wanted to provide an attractive setting to host pastors and missionaries who needed a quiet place to rest. Based on our experience with solid log walls, I would choose cement faux-log siding instead if I had the option. It is virtually maintenance-free, has a longer life span, allows for a wall with a higher R-value, and is more fire-resistant than solid log walls.Continue reading“A Log Home in the Woods, By Thomas Christianson”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“And when he had called unto him his twelve disciples, he gave them power against unclean spirits, to cast them out, and to heal all manner of sickness and all manner of disease.

Now the names of the twelve apostles are these; The first, Simon, who is called Peter, and Andrew his brother; James the son of Zebedee, and John his brother;

Philip, and Bartholomew; Thomas, and Matthew the publican; James the son of Alphaeus, and Lebbaeus, whose surname was Thaddaeus;

Simon the Canaanite, and Judas Iscariot, who also betrayed him.

These twelve Jesus sent forth, and commanded them, saying, Go not into the way of the Gentiles, and into any city of the Samaritans enter ye not:

But go rather to the lost sheep of the house of Israel.

And as ye go, preach, saying, The kingdom of heaven is at hand.

Heal the sick, cleanse the lepers, raise the dead, cast out devils: freely ye have received, freely give.

Provide neither gold, nor silver, nor brass in your purses,

Nor scrip for your journey, neither two coats, neither shoes, nor yet staves: for the workman is worthy of his meat.

And into whatsoever city or town ye shall enter, enquire who in it is worthy; and there abide till ye go thence.

And when ye come into an house, salute it.

And if the house be worthy, let your peace come upon it: but if it be not worthy, let your peace return to you.

And whosoever shall not receive you, nor hear your words, when ye depart out of that house or city, shake off the dust of your feet.

Verily I say unto you, It shall be more tolerable for the land of Sodom and Gomorrha in the day of judgment, than for that city.

Behold, I send you forth as sheep in the midst of wolves: be ye therefore wise as serpents, and harmless as doves.

But beware of men: for they will deliver you up to the councils, and they will scourge you in their synagogues;

And ye shall be brought before governors and kings for my sake, for a testimony against them and the Gentiles.

But when they deliver you up, take no thought how or what ye shall speak: for it shall be given you in that same hour what ye shall speak.

For it is not ye that speak, but the Spirit of your Father which speaketh in you.

And the brother shall deliver up the brother to death, and the father the child: and the children shall rise up against their parents, and cause them to be put to death.

And ye shall be hated of all men for my name’s sake: but he that endureth to the end shall be saved.

But when they persecute you in this city, flee ye into another: for verily I say unto you, Ye shall not have gone over the cities of Israel, till the Son of man be come.

The disciple is not above his master, nor the servant above his lord.

It is enough for the disciple that he be as his master, and the servant as his lord. If they have called the master of the house Beelzebub, how much more shall they call them of his household?” – Matthew 10:1-25 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — June 18, 2022

June 18th is the birthday of Pastor Douglas Wilson. Born in 1953, he is the pastor at Christ Church in Moscow, Idaho. He is a prodigious author of books and articles on Reformed theology.

—

Just two days left! We are nearing the end of our pre-summer sale, at Elk Creek Company. We’ve reduced the prices on all of our percussion replica guns, and nearly all of our pre-1899 cartridge guns. With the recent dip in the spot price of silver, this is a great time to buy. Note that we have our prices listed in both pre-1965 silver coinage  and in current rapidly-inflating Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs.) The last day of the sale will be Monday, June 20th. Our small inventory is selling rapidly, so order soon!

—

Today’s feature is a guest article, not part of the writing contest judging.

 

Slowing Money Supply Growth in 2022 Points to Recession, by Ryan W. McMaken

Editor’s Introductory Note: This guest article was selected by JWR. It was first published by The Mises Institute. It is reposted with permission. The Mises Institute is named in honor of the much-revered Austrian School economist Ludwig Von Mises. (Pictured, above.)

—

Money supply growth fell slightly in April, falling below March’s eight-month high. Even with March’s bump in growth, though, money supply growth remains far below the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. During the thirteen months between April 2020 and April 2021, money supply growth in the United States often climbed above 35 percent, well above even the “high” levels experienced from 2009 to 2013. As money supply growth returns to “normal,” however, this may point to recessionary pressures in the near future.

During April 2022, year-over-year (YOY) growth in the money supply was at 7.23 percent. That’s down from March’s rate of 7.41 percent, and down from April 2021’s rate of 36.8 percent. The growth rate peaked in February 2021 at 23.12 percent.

The growth rates during most of 2020, and through April 2021, were much higher than anything we’d seen during previous cycles, with the 1970s being the only period that came close.

 

 

 

The money supply metric used here—the “true” or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2. The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth. This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed (and excludes short-time deposits and retail money funds).

In a contrast with TMS, M2 growth rates have continued to fall over the past five months, with the growth rate in April falling slightly, to 8.20 percent. That’s down slightly from March’s growth rate of 9.92 percent. April’s rate was also well down from April 2021’s rate of 18.52 percent. M2 growth peaked at a new record of 26.91 percent during February 2021.

Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as commercial banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by slowing rates of money supply growth. However, money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession. As recession nears, the TMS growth rate typically climbs and becomes larger than the M2 growth rate. This occurred in the early months of the 2002 and the 2009 crises. A similar pattern appeared before the 2020 recession. Money supply growth fell throughout much of 2019, and the economy appeared headed toward recession. However, the “lockdowns” and stay-at-home orders of the covid panic accelerated this process and ensured a sizable drop in economic activity. Massive stimulus then pushed money supply growth up to record levels.

Trends in money supply growth also appear to be connected to the shape of the yield curve. As Bob Murphy notes in his book Understanding Money Mechanics, a sustained decline in TMS growth often reflects spikes in short-term yields, which can fuel a flattening or inverting yield curve. Murphy writes:

“When the money supply grows at a high rate, we are in a “boom” period and the yield curve is “normal,” meaning the yield on long bonds is much higher than on short bonds. But when the banking system contracts and money supply growth decelerates, then the yield curve flattens or even inverts. It is not surprising that when the banks “slam on the brakes” with money creation, the economy soon goes into recession.”

In other words, a sizable drop in the TMS growth levels often precedes an inversion in the yield curve, which itself points to an impending recession. Indeed, we may be seeing that right now in mid-June 2022.

Fed Stimulus and Declining Loan Growth

Money supply growth was fueled in part by enormous amounts of deficit spending that occurred throughout 2020 and 2021. This led to the “need” for large amounts of monetization by the Federal Reserve (to keep interest on the national debt low). Indeed, as federal deficit spending grew throughout 2020, Fed purchases of government bonds increased substantially as well. Since June 2021, however, federal spending has fallen well below its earlier peaks. This has allowed the Fed to scale back its monthly asset purchases, and the Fed has announced the end of its program of large-scale purchases of US debt.

One factor that has buoyed the TMS in recent months—in part driving the TMS above the M2 growth rate—has been rising Treasury deposits at the Fed. These totals are factored into the TMS measure—but not the M2—and this total has risen from $133 billion in December to $694 billion in April.

 

 

 

But overall, such a sizable drop in TMS growth over the past year continues to point toward a weakening economy. With recent trends showing falling real wages, multidecade price inflation, and a flattening yield curve, we may again soon see the recessionary aftermath of a downward swing in TMS growth levels.

About The Author:

Ryan W. McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Ryan has a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in public policy and international relations from the University of Colorado. He was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in this column, in the Odds ‘n Sods Column, and in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

Our #2 Son is back home at the ranch, visiting for a couple of weeks. Hooray!

The continuing parade of weather fronts across the Northwestern United States has definitely put a damper on our construction projects. As of now, this is looking like the wettest June on record, for the Inland Northwest!

Right now, we are praying that our friends and neighbors who grow hayfields get a decent break in the weather. There must be a substantial break, in order to allow time to cut, windrow-rake, and bale their hay in the next eight weeks. Otherwise, their hay crops cannot be marketed.

This week, we bought another pallet block of compressed cedar mulch. I unloaded that, and the pile that it formed fluffed up to about three cubic yards.

Now, over to Lily…

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“I am the rose of Sharon, and the lily of the valleys.

As the lily among thorns, so is my love among the daughters.

As the apple tree among the trees of the wood, so is my beloved among the sons. I sat down under his shadow with great delight, and his fruit was sweet to my taste.

He brought me to the banqueting house, and his banner over me was love.

Stay me with flagons, comfort me with apples: for I am sick of love.

His left hand is under my head, and his right hand doth embrace me.

I charge you, O ye daughters of Jerusalem, by the roes, and by the hinds of the field, that ye stir not up, nor awake my love, till he please.

The voice of my beloved! behold, he cometh leaping upon the mountains, skipping upon the hills.

My beloved is like a roe or a young hart: behold, he standeth behind our wall, he looketh forth at the windows, shewing himself through the lattice.

My beloved spake, and said unto me, Rise up, my love, my fair one, and come away.

For, lo, the winter is past, the rain is over and gone;

The flowers appear on the earth; the time of the singing of birds is come, and the voice of the turtle is heard in our land;

The fig tree putteth forth her green figs, and the vines with the tender grape give a good smell. Arise, my love, my fair one, and come away.

O my dove, that art in the clefts of the rock, in the secret places of the stairs, let me see thy countenance, let me hear thy voice; for sweet is thy voice, and thy countenance is comely.

Take us the foxes, the little foxes, that spoil the vines: for our vines have tender grapes.

My beloved is mine, and I am his: he feedeth among the lilies.

Until the day break, and the shadows flee away, turn, my beloved, and be thou like a roe or a young hart upon the mountains of Bether.” – Song Of Solomon 2 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — June 17, 2022

Today we remember the birthday of the late Dean Ing (June 17, 1931 – July 21, 2020.) He was a master of writing science fiction novels and techno-thrillers. His novel The Ransom of Black Stealth One (1989) was a New York Times bestseller. His nuclear war survival novel Pulling Through is considered a survivalist classic. Ing was a member of the Citizens’ Advisory Council on National Space Policy. He wrote more than 30 novels, and co-authored several novels with his friends Jerry Pournelle, S. M. Stirling, and Leik Myrabo.  He also authored articles on preparedness topics, for Mel Tappan’s P.S. Letter.  Like Tappan, Dean Ing made his home in southwestern Oregon.

I had the pleasure of meeting Dean and chatting with him for more than 20 minutes, at a science fiction convention in San Jose, California. As I recall that was in 1988 or 1989. Sadly, that was the only chance that I had to meet him, before he passed away.  Dean Ing was one of my inspirations for writing my first novel. He was quite a guy, with a witty sense of humor. One of the funny things that he mentioned to me was that he and his wife had consecutive entries in the Ashland, Oregon phone book. At that time, those entries read:

“D Ing
L Ing.”

—

On June 17, 1775, the Battle of Bunker Hill began.

June 17th is the birthday of Libertarian economist Harry Browne (June 17, 1933 – March 1, 2006.)

This is also the birthday of musician Red Foley (born, 1910, died September 19, 1968).

June 17th is also the birthday of novelist John Ross, who was born in 1957. He is best known as the author of the novel Unintended Consequences.

—

Today we present a guest article by our friend Arkadiusz Sieroń. It is not part of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

—

More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running the writing contest. Round 101 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry.

We presently have an open editorial calendar for feature articles, starting next week. So any article that you write and send us soon will likely be posted within two weeks.

Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Gold’s Shine vs. The Long Shadow of War in Ukraine, by Arkadiusz Sieroń

The war in Ukraine brings multiple negative consequences, not only to the world economy. Russia’s invasion also has a wide impact on the gold market.

The Consequences Are Vast

The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for more than three months. After the withdrawal from the north of Ukraine, Russia has focused on the east and south of the country, aiming to take full control of Donbas and to create a land corridor between it and Crimea. The consequences of a Russian invasion into Ukraine are far-reaching in many areas.

  • The war is a humanitarian crisis. Thousands of people died, while millions fled the country.
  • Ukraine was also severely hit economically. The GDP is forecasted to fall this year by 35% or even more on top of the vast destruction of the country’s infrastructure (the total amount of direct infrastructure damage has surpassed $100 billion), reduced labor supply, and halted investments.
  • The Russian economy is projected to decline by 8.5% or even more due to the sanctions, financial crisis, and the closure of economic ties with the West, including the withdrawal of many companies from Russia.
  • There is a global food crisis. Russia and Ukraine are significant producers of many agricultural products. They produce 60% of the world’s sunflower oil and account for almost 30% of wheat exports. Ukraine is also a leading exporter of corn, barley, and rye, but because of the war, many crop areas won’t be planted or harvested. What’s more, both Ukraine and Russia are also major producers of fertilizers. Additionally, because of the naval blockade, Ukraine’s ability to export its commodities is severely limited. The rise in food (and fuel) prices (see the chart below) could aggravate the food insecurity in some parts of the world, increasing the risk of unrest.

 

 

 

  • There is a global energy crisis as well, as Russia is the second-largest producer of natural gas and the third-largest producer of oil. The EU is particularly severely hit as it is most dependent on Russian energy.
  • The rise in food and energy prices is adding to the inflationary pressure and is hampering GDP growth. The war is a negative supply shock which is stagflationary in nature. The IMF has already cut its forecast for global growth this year from 4.4% to 3.6%, mainly because of the Russian invasion.
  • The war will also have important long-term geopolitical consequences. The Russian invasion reenergized NATO, prompted Finland and traditionally neutral Sweden to apply for membership in this military alliance, and triggered an increase in military spending across all of Europe, including pacifist Germany.
  • Moreover, Russia’s position will weaken, as its failure – despite the huge military advantage – to defeat Ukraine shows that, in reality, it’s a less powerful country than people feared. The huge military losses in terms of soldiers and equipment will weaken Russia’s military strength for years. What’s more, Europe is reducing dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, the major country’s leverage. Russia is effectively cut off from Western economic integration and will probably be driven into a closer and more subservient relationship with China.

Continue reading“Gold’s Shine vs. The Long Shadow of War in Ukraine, by Arkadiusz Sieroń”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at inflation and automatic cost-of-living escalator clauses. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

Higher interest rates — with a yield curve that has again gone inverted — and a surge in U.S. Dollar strength triggered a 4.15% drop in spot silver and 2.96% drop in spot gold, on Monday: Price declines in gold, silver as USDX, Treasury yields on the rise. But, predictably, the metals began to bounce back, on Wednesday: Spot silver was up .73% to $21.99, while gold was up 1.26% to $1,844.90 per Troy ounce.

o  o  o

Gold price forecast for 2022 and beyond: Will the dollar keep it down?

Economy & Finance:

Retail Sales Fall, Fed Raises Interest Rate by Historic .75 Percentage Point. JWR’s Comment:  Okay, absent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and WW3, I’m now making eight predictions for in or before the Fourth Quarter of 2022:

  • A Stagnant Economy + Continuing Inflation (“Stagflation.”)
  • A lengthy Recession.
  • At least six more 25+ basis point bumps in interest rates, by the FOMC.
  • Real estate market declines, even amidst inflation.
  • A nationwide average of $8.99 per gallon for gasoline, before leveling off.
  • Equities market declines: Dow at 25,000, Nasdaq Composite at 8,500, and S&P 500 at 2,800.
  • A retreat from the current Dollar Strength, on the Forex.
  • A new bull market in precious metals, but with platinum lagging.

o  o  o

Rand Paul warns of ‘double digit’ interest rates, recession, and joblessness.

o  o  o

Over at Quoth The Raven: “Warning Flags Are Everywhere”: Kenny Polcari On The ECB, Inflation And U.S. Stocks

o  o  o

Social Security benefits likely to climb by 8% next year, official says. JWR’s Comments: I’ve warned here before that legislated automatic cost-of-living escalator clauses will create continual ratcheting, as inflation continues to increase. This is will be a classic reinforcing feedback loop, with no easy exit. In essence, Inflation breeds inflation. And, of course, cost-of-living increases based on “official” inflation figures never keep up with real inflation rates. Standby for stagflation, folks.

o  o  o

At The Burning Platform: Ticking retirement timebomb? Unfunded state pension liabilities grow to $8.28 trillion.

o  o  o

Bzzt! Another phony claim from Joe Biden’s happy economy falls apart: Consumers are maxxing their credit cards.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — June 16, 2022

Today is the birthday of pioneering economist Adam Smith, in 1723. He was born in Kirkaldy, County Fife, Scotland. He died July 17, 1790.

—

Just four days left! We are continuing our pre-summer sale, at Elk Creek Company. We’ve reduced the prices on all of our percussion replica guns, and nearly all of our pre-1899 cartridge guns. With the recent dip in the spot price of silver, this is a great time to buy. Note that we have our prices listed in both pre-1965 silver coinage  and in current rapidly-inflating Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs.) The last day of the sale will be Monday, June 20th. Our small inventory is selling rapidly, so order soon!

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 101 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A LogOX 3-in-1 Forestry MultiTool (a $189 value) and a WoodOx Sling (a $79.95 value), courtesy of LogOx, both made in USA.
  4. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 101 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.