Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the current chicken egg shortage, and food price inflation.

Precious Metals:

The spot and futures prices of silver and gold broke out late Friday (January 13, 2023.) Though there will probably be a bit of profit-taking in the short term, I expect to see some solid gains for precious metals in coming weeks, as the US Dollar Index continues its retreat from its top. When I last checked, spot silver was at $24.56 per Troy ounce, and gold was at $1,931 per Troy ounce. I expect to see silver approaching $30, by April.

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Gold climbs eight-month high in run-up to US inflation test.

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Clint Siegner, at Gold-Eagle.com: As the Dollar Falls, Metals Will Rise.

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A Silver Price Forecast For 2023. “The price of silver will move to our first bullish target of $34.70 USD in 2023. We expect $48 USD soon after, not later than in 2024.”

Economy & Finance:

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns U.S. stocks could slump another 22% if recession arrives in 2023.

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At Zero Hedge: Massive Hedge Fund, Also Known As Swiss National Bank, Suffers Colossal $143 Billion Loss In 2022.

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Video: Soft landing? The global economy in 2023.

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UK FTSE 100 hits highest level since 2018; cost of living crisis and climate change top global risks – business live.

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S&P 500 Likely to Trade in Tighter Range in 2023.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — January 15, 2023

Today is the anniversary of the 2009 “Miracle On The Hudson” engines-out emergency water landing of US Airways Flight 1549.  That pilot was cool, calm, and collected, under pressure.  God Bless You, Sully, wherever you are.

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Today is also the birthday of Dr. Edward Teller, who worked on the Manhattan Project, and later co-invented the hydrogen bomb

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Beginning Bees on a Budget, by St. Funogas

“Bees do have a smell, you know, and if they don’t they should, for their feet are dusted with the spices of a million flowers.” Ray Bradbury, Dandelion Wine

It’s January and getting close to time to get your bees ordered for anyone wanting to try their hand at beekeeping this year. Most bee suppliers have begun taking orders for bees and they typically sell out by late March so now is the time to start looking more seriously into whether or not you want to want to give beekeeping a shot.

Many people want to get into beekeeping until they see how expensive the startup costs are. This article shows you how to get started as frugally as possible instead of spending the $500+ which books and catalog companies suggest you to spend. If you have DIY skills, or if you know someone with DIY skills, you can get started for around $150. And if you’re good at scrounging lumber, or have enough of the right stuff laying around already, then you can keep it under $100. Even if you do have to purchase everything to get started, this article will provide some insights on how to do so while keeping costs to a minimum.Continue reading“Beginning Bees on a Budget, by St. Funogas”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“And there appeared a great wonder in heaven; a woman clothed with the sun, and the moon under her feet, and upon her head a crown of twelve stars:

And she being with child cried, travailing in birth, and pained to be delivered.

And there appeared another wonder in heaven; and behold a great red dragon, having seven heads and ten horns, and seven crowns upon his heads.

And his tail drew the third part of the stars of heaven, and did cast them to the earth: and the dragon stood before the woman which was ready to be delivered, for to devour her child as soon as it was born.

And she brought forth a man child, who was to rule all nations with a rod of iron: and her child was caught up unto God, and to his throne.

And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.

And there was war in heaven: Michael and his angels fought against the dragon; and the dragon fought and his angels,

And prevailed not; neither was their place found any more in heaven.

And the great dragon was cast out, that old serpent, called the Devil, and Satan, which deceiveth the whole world: he was cast out into the earth, and his angels were cast out with him.

And I heard a loud voice saying in heaven, Now is come salvation, and strength, and the kingdom of our God, and the power of his Christ: for the accuser of our brethren is cast down, which accused them before our God day and night.

And they overcame him by the blood of the Lamb, and by the word of their testimony; and they loved not their lives unto the death.

Therefore rejoice, ye heavens, and ye that dwell in them. Woe to the inhabiters of the earth and of the sea! for the devil is come down unto you, having great wrath, because he knoweth that he hath but a short time.

And when the dragon saw that he was cast unto the earth, he persecuted the woman which brought forth the man child.

And to the woman were given two wings of a great eagle, that she might fly into the wilderness, into her place, where she is nourished for a time, and times, and half a time, from the face of the serpent.

And the serpent cast out of his mouth water as a flood after the woman, that he might cause her to be carried away of the flood.

And the earth helped the woman, and the earth opened her mouth, and swallowed up the flood which the dragon cast out of his mouth.

And the dragon was wroth with the woman, and went to make war with the remnant of her seed, which keep the commandments of God, and have the testimony of Jesus Christ.” – Revelation 12 (KJV)

 

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — January 14, 2023

On January 14th, 1526, the Treaty of Madrid was signed by the Habsburg emperor Charles V (Charles I of Spain — pictured, in a portrait painted by Titian) and his prisoner Francis I, king of France, who had been captured during the Battle of Pavia in February 1525.  King Francis was held prisoner until the conclusion of the treaty, when he was allowed to return to France. This treaty came from what some might describe as “an advantageous negotiating position.”

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They of course waited until Friday the 13th — just before a three-day holiday weekend and the annual SHOT Show’s opening weekend…  Via the Justice Department, the ATF just announced their final rule, banning nearly all arm-braced pistols. This very complicated 293-page ruling will potentially turn 4+ million law-abiding Americans into felons, if they don’t fully comply.

To be compliant, folks will have to take their pick of several options, within the announced 120-day amnesty period:

1.) Re-barrel, or permanently weld-on or high-temperature silver solder-on a barrel extension or extra long flash hider, bringing their braced pistol barrels to 16+ inches, thus making them legally “rifles”. OR,

2.) Replace their arm brace buffer tubes with a plain round buffer tubes, and destroy or turn in their arm braces (without compensation.) OR,

3.) Do a Federal Short Barreled Rifle (SBR) registration, with all of the fingerprinting, background checking, and paperwork. For this, they now even want you to submit photographs of the pistols — presumably so that you won’t change the configuration at a later date. The $200 for the tax stamp transfer will be waived for the first registration, but charged for any subsequent transfers. OR,

4.) Surrender your arm-braced pistols to Federal law enforcement, without compensation. (The least likely choice, I’m sure.)

I’ve been warning you about this, folks.  Do you remember the memes that I’ve posted about this, over the last few years?

 

 

 

 

I’m sure that there will be court challenges as an uncompensated “taking” and/or for failing the Bruen decision test and Chevron deference — hopefully with a favorable ruling knocking down this Schumer before it would go into effect.

Also note that this rule will come into effect while there is still snow on the ground in northern states, making it very difficult for people to dig up cached guns, to photograph them and get serial numbers, for SBR registration.

Oh, and the rulemaking announcement was made just as the SHOT Show opened, where more than a dozen new arm-braced pistol models were being announced by gun manufacturers. What a slap in the face!

Please contact your congressman and U.S. Senators to urge them to pass legislation removing all “short-barreled” rifles and shotguns from National Firearms Act (NFA) restrictions. That would make the new ATF ruling null and void.

Shame on Merrick Garland and the ATF!

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Because today’s feature article is a book review and summary, it is not eligible for judging in the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. To be eligible, articles must be original works.  There are still two weeks left to get your articles written for the current round of the judging.

More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Comfort for the Burned and Wounded, by C.J.

Editor’s Introductory Note: The following is a eview and summary of a book by John W. Keim. This article is intended for informational purposes only, and should not be considered medical advice. Get any patient with severe burns to a hospital emergency room, immediately.

If you have an interest in herbal medicine or just want to be prepared if modern medical care is not available in the future, I recommend reading this wonderfully informative book that I discovered a few years ago. The book is titled “Comfort for the Burned and Wounded”, by John W. Keim. Mr. Keim is not a medical professional; he is an Amish farmer and wrote this book based on his decades of experience helping people in his community. He describes his method very thoroughly and clearly, providing many case studies. The case studies are informative, detailed, and inspiring.

The book was first published in 1999, and is getting harder to find, but is still available if you search online. It is a small paperback, so it can even be put in your medical kit. I’m going to take you through the highlights and add additional information that I have learned through my studies of herbal medicine.

Disclaimer: I am not a licensed medical professional. This information is provided only for informational and entertainment purposes. This information is not intended to treat, diagnose, or cure any human or animal.

Keim’s basic approach is to immediately extinguish the flames or fire by using water or snow, smother with fireproof blanket, use the “stop, drop and roll” method or a proper extinguisher for chemical burns. Once the flames are extinguished then cool the burn, apply an ointment or salve and then apply dried leaves that have been scalded in hot water to the burn (let them cool before applying over the wound).

JWR Adds This Important Proviso:  Keep in mind that burn ointments should not be applied to  severe burns where there is any chance that the burn victim is headed to the hospital. For many years, the standard procedure by hospital staff has been to remove anything covering/coating a burn by irrigation, or if need be, by debridement. The latter can be incredibly painful. Also, note that any “do-it-yourself” burn treatments for anything worse than first-degree burns may result in permanent scarring.

Wrap the leaves with gauze and a towel, then replace every 12 hours. He prefers to use burdock leaves but has had success with many other leaves. Burdock (Arctium lappa) leaves also help stop bleeding, but do not work as well as Comfrey (Symphytum officinale) leaves.

Other leaves that can be used

Comfrey – excellent for stopping bleeding and is a excellent cell proliferent. Use externally only.
Plantain (Plantago major) – effective, but too small, need a lot and are harder to find
Grape leaves – the younger the better
Dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) leaves – would need a lot, excellent for treating mastitis (inflammation of the breast or udder).
Stinging nettle (Urtica dioica) leaf – will stop bleeding, including vaginal. Use scalded leaves or tea.
Tree leaves – just about any deciduous tree leaf will work in an emergency
Yarrow (Achillea millefolium) leaves – Yarrow leaves are very effective at controlling bleeding. Yarrow is an antiseptic, helps reduce pain, heals wounds and is anti-inflammatory.
Other: The author has successfully used alfalfa (Medicago sativa) sprouts and even regular lettuce from the grocery store.
Sphagnum Moss was used during World War I to dress wounds when sterile bandages were in short supply, and it was effective at fighting and preventing infection. An informative article was published in the Smithsonian magazine in 2017.  Links to other academic articles on the subject: Hotson, J. W. (1921). Sphagnum Used as Surgical Dressing in Germany during the World War (Concluded). The Bryologist, 24(6), 89-96. Morton, E., Winters, J., & Smith, L. (2010). An analysis of antiseptic and antibiotic properties of variously treated mosses and lichen.Continue reading“Comfort for the Burned and Wounded, by C.J.”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make both long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug-out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in the Odds ‘n Sods Column or in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

We had another week of nice weather. Apparently, the Jet Stream has decided to park itself down over  California, so the storms are missing us. Locally, we are already at 90% of the normal snowpack for the winter, so I’m not complaining.

I finished laying one of the floors upstairs in the shop. That was 3/4-inch tongue-and-groove plywood screwed down to some hefty engineered joists that are on 16-inch centers, so the floor has plenty of strength. The plywood looks decent, for a utility/storage room, so I’ll probably just leave that “as-is.” No need for paint. And I also did some more insulating wall/ceiling backing board carpentry. So I’m now ready to hang the ceiling over that room. Those will also be plywood.  A guy tends to get set in his ways on construction techniques. With so much plywood, the storage rooms are starting to look just like the way that I finished the JASBORR interior: Sturdy, plain, and utilitarian. The wiring will all be in steel conduit, with steel junction boxes. No style points will be awarded there, either. My construction won’t win any beauty contests. But I’m confident that someday my grandkids will say: “Gee, Grandpa sure built things stout.”

Now, Lily’s report…Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“And the Lord spake unto Moses, saying,

If a soul sin, and commit a trespass against the Lord, and lie unto his neighbour in that which was delivered him to keep, or in fellowship, or in a thing taken away by violence, or hath deceived his neighbour;

Or have found that which was lost, and lieth concerning it, and sweareth falsely; in any of all these that a man doeth, sinning therein:

Then it shall be, because he hath sinned, and is guilty, that he shall restore that which he took violently away, or the thing which he hath deceitfully gotten, or that which was delivered him to keep, or the lost thing which he found,

Or all that about which he hath sworn falsely; he shall even restore it in the principal, and shall add the fifth part more thereto, and give it unto him to whom it appertaineth, in the day of his trespass offering.

And he shall bring his trespass offering unto the Lord, a ram without blemish out of the flock, with thy estimation, for a trespass offering, unto the priest:

And the priest shall make an atonement for him before the Lord: and it shall be forgiven him for any thing of all that he hath done in trespassing therein.” – Leviticus 6:1-7 (KJV)

 

Preparedness Notes for Friday — January 13, 2023

On January 13, 2012, the Costa Concordia, a cruise ship carrying some 4,200 people, ran aground and capsized off Giglio Island, Italy; 32 passengers were killed.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Challenges of Living in a Small Home, by Hollyberry

I have always lived in a small space (apartment/mobile home/cabin) since leaving mom and dad’s nest many years ago. Small living is not for everyone. Being in a small living area, with pets and personal belongings, it can get crowded quickly. My husband jokingly says that we live homicidally close! I find that organization is important, as is letting stuff go when no longer needed or used. If you save everything because you may need it one day, then you can quickly run out of space. Clutter can take over quickly if not kept in check. We try to keep things tidy and organized. Evaluate everything you are bringing into your home, do I really need/use/covet this item?

About 13 years ago, my husband and I moved into our little cabin. It was 680 square feet,. It had been built as a three-season hunting cabin. After looking at it and discussing how we could fit in it, we made an offer and here we are. There were no closets, no basement, and no outbuildings. Closets and outbuildings were added but a basement would have to wait for that winning lottery ticket. My husband and I and our dogs welcome you on a tour of our home and how we made it work for us. I offer you a cup of coffee and some homemade cookies!Continue reading“Challenges of Living in a Small Home, by Hollyberry”

Economics & Investing: JWR’s Predictions for 2023

Today, in a special edition of this column are JWR‘s economic, finance, and market predictions for 2023 and beyond.

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Bottom line up front (BLUF), I believe that  2023 will be seen as a year of recession, layoffs, and stagflation. Consumer inflation will be rampant, but some assets will deflate, as the economy contracts. In the longer term, the recession starting in 2023 may develop into a general economic depression. Perhaps the era will someday be characterized as “The Depression of the late 2020s and early 2030s.”  Now, for the details:

Precious Metals:

With inflation continuing at a rapid clip, I expect precious metals to outperform most other assets.  If the expected recession is deep, then the monetary metals (silver and gold) will shine more than the industrial metals (platinum, palladium, rhodium, et cetera.)

A couple of wild cards are the ongoing war in Ukraine and the threatened war over the control of Taiwan.  If either of those conflicts blows up into a regional or global war, then some of the more exotic and “strategic” metals that are crucial to high-tech weaponry (such as rhodium, ruthenium, and iridium) may go ballistic.

Global Economy:

The global economy is likely to slump in 2023 and 2024. Economies seem to be at a tipping point.  I’m not the only economic commentator that is seeing this. Multinational corporations will have to be highly reactive or even predictive, in order to make a profit, in 2023. Mass layoffs will be the norm. Social unrest will follow. Wars will be useful distractions, to keep despots in their places of power.

U.S. Economy:

Here in the States, with a Democrat in the White House, the economy will stagnate, and inflation will continue.  Stagflation will be the word of the day.

The deeply divided congress will enact very little new legislation. Just passing budgets will be a huge hurdle.

Mergers and acquisitions will proliferate, as big fish gobble up smaller, weaker fish.

There will be some massive layoffs, starting in the tech sector. As the economy grinds down into low gear, airlines, car manufacturers, banks, stock trading firms, and retailers will all announce major layoffs. Most folks will go into Hunker Down mode. A lot of 20-somethings will be moving back home to live with Mom and Dad. And whole families may be moving into Mom and Dad’s basement. The number of homeless people will surely increase, with a concomitant rise in street crime. Agitators from groups like BLM and Antifa will organize some huge protests, primarily in urban areas.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing: JWR’s Predictions for 2023”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — January 12, 2023

On January 12, 1528 – Gustav Eriksson of the Vasa noble family was crowned king of Sweden (Gustav I.)

On January 12, 1737,  John Hancock was born. He was the first signer of the Declaration of Independence.

January 12, 1879: The British-Zulu War begins. British troops, under Lieutenant General Frederic Augustus, invade Zululand from the southern African Republic of Natal.

January 12,1908: A wireless message is sent long-distance for the first time from the Eiffel Tower in Paris.

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.