Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at global economic and credit market forecasts for 2022. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

Silver Reverses to Long, Gold still struggles.

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Strong 2021 Demand For Physical Precious Metals, Despite Paper Prices.

Economy & Finance:

Fitch: Global Economic Outlook – December 2021.

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IMF warns of interest rate risks as global debt hits $226 trillion.

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Bloomberg Quint: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? These Are the Biggest Economic Risks for 2022.

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Moody’s: Outlooks 2022.

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Over at The Street: Here Are Some of the Biggest Market Risks in 2022.

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S&P: Global Credit Outlook 2022: Aftershocks, Future Shocks, And Transitions.

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Over Half Of US States Will Increase Minimum Wage In 2022.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — December 30, 2021

December 30, 1865 was the birthday of Rudyard Kipling.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 98 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 98 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Gasoline Types and Long Term Storage, by Tunnel Rabbit

I started wrenching in 1976, and have several decades of experience in this field.
Diesel is the best fuel for TEOTWAWKI, but I cannot afford to switch, and I do not have diesel chainsaw.  I store aviation gasoline (Avgas) “100LL” for my chainsaws and generators.  This pure form of gasoline does not separate, nor degrade as rapidly as modern gasoline sold are regular gas stations. It is much like gasoline was in the 1960s that contain lead, and has few additives. You can buy it at most airports that cater to general aviation private pilots. If stored in air-tight metal 5 gallons in a temperature-stable environment, it can run an airplane after many years of storage without the use of a fuel stabilizer. Many pilots report the remarkably long storage life of Avgas.  Avgas in it’s various forms have been used in automotive racing, and as fuel stock for different blends of racing fuel. And it is highly regarded by those who have used it in snowmobiles to chainsaws.
Storage Containers and Management
Plastic storage containers are oxygen permeable and oxygen degrades fuels, so these are not ideal for long term storage measured in years.  The good old metal 5 gallon jerry can is ideal. New versions of this container are expensive and can found in stainless steel!  Reduce storage container cost by using less expensive plastic cans for fuels that will be used first and metal cans for feuls that would be used after many years of storage.  For chainsaws, just one gallon of gasoline can cut a cord of softer woods. Therefore, one expensive or high-quality air-tight metal can might be justifiable, if the fuel will be used after several years of storage.
However, a good alternative to this scheme is proprietary custom fuels such as VPN (best), or others such as Trufuel (much more cost-effective).  These are sold in air-tight metal cans eliminating the need for purchasing such for the purpose of long-term storage of fuels. The high cost of these fuel alternatives are justifiable in my book, if it will be used to run chain saws.  I suspect that the reason these proprietary fuels store so long is because they might be using the same fuel stock that is used for Avgas. But, I cannot prove it.  Besides Trufuel, the least expensive of this category, and runs around $20.00/gal, while Avgas, in my area, is less than $5, and the national average was less than $6 per gallon, when I last checked.  I do have one season’s worth of Trufuel in reserve as a contingency to power a chainsaw.
Avgas does not have the same light volatiles of automotive gasoline blends, so starting could be more difficult in cold weather. It is designed to run an airplane a motor at a steady speed of 2,000 to 2,300 rpm.  The lead in this fuel increases the octane rating, cools the valves,  lubricates valve stems, and cylinder walls as it was designed to do given the soft metal used for engine valves prior to 1972.  It would also lubricate 2 cycle motors.  Chainsaws to snowmobiles love it.  When converted to a metric for automotive fuels, it has a 96 octane rating, and contains a modest amount of lead, therefore it should not be used in engines with emission controls and catalytic converters.  Oxygen sensors in the exhaust system, and the catalytic converters would quickly become damaged.  The vehicle would continue to run, but without the benefit of good functioning oxygen sensors, the motor will run rich and fuel economy would suffer.  Repairing the vehicle, should it need to pass an emissions test in the future, could be expensive. 100LL avgas can be purchased at my local private airport for only $4.99/gal, only 50 cents more per gallon than non-ethanol premium gasoline that is often considered the best gasoline for long-term storage.
Avgas, Mogas, and Chainsaws
I would use not use ethanol fuel for chainsaws for a variety of reasons, unless there was nothing else. And it would be the least desirable and poor choice for long-term storage as ethanol is hydrophilic and degrades the additives in fuel. ‘Hydrophilic’ means water can be absorbed into the fuel and burned. This both good and bad.  Good if it will be run through a 4 cycle motor, such as are vehicle motors, but bad if it will be run through a 2 cycle motor that are used on chainsaws. 2 cycle motors require a specialized oil to be mixed into the fuel. This oil-fuel mixture is used to lubricated the motor and to run the motor.  If there is water mixed in with the fuel, the operator would not know this as ethanol absorbs it, and it is carried in the fuel. The water in this fuel is not a good lubricant, as it does not mix as well with the oil that is added and intended for purpose of lubrication.  A water-soluble fuel does not carry lubricants as well, as a pure petroleum-based fuel does.

Continue reading“Gasoline Types and Long Term Storage, by Tunnel Rabbit”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats, and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we look at the aftermath of the recent tornadoes.

In Rural Kentucky: The Tornado Aftermath

First up, at CNN: ‘It gets harder every day.’ For many in rural Kentucky, their Christmas gift is survival.  An excerpt:

“A week after the deadly long-track tornado ripped through western Kentucky, residents of the region were rallying around those who had suffered the worst damage, much like the Amish community that had gathered in rural Graves County, several miles outside Mayfield.
In Mayfield, a town of less than 10,000 people where more than one-in-three residents live below the poverty line, many people said they were committed to remaining in the area and rebuilding what they had lost.
But anxiety over the economic blows so many had suffered had also set in, with many beginning to confront the long process of recovery with more questions than answers.”

Kentucky Tornado Photos: Recovery and Cleanup

Kentucky tornado photos: What recovery and cleanup has looked like each day in communities.

Mountain Lion Breaks Into California Home

H.L. sent this, at Newsweek: Mountain Lion Breaks Into Family Home, Tries to Eat Pet Dog. JWR’s Comment: Take note that this happened in southern California. Surely, local animal rights advocates will claim  that the big cat was simply making “a lifestyle choice.”

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“If congress has the right under the Constitution to issue paper money, it was given them to use themselves, not to be delegated to individuals or corporations.” – Andrew Jackson

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — December 29, 2021

I just heard of the death of the highly-decorated CMDR Richard Marcinko, at age 81. He was the first commander of SEAL Team 6. He had an amazing career, and he surely will be missed.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 98 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 98 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Gear Review: Axil GS Extreme Earbuds, by The Novice

Axil GS Extreme Earbuds transmit and even amplify ambient noises while filtering out the dangerously loud sounds that can result in hearing loss. I found the earbuds to work well in setting like the range, running a chainsaw outdoors, running a circular saw inside, or driving while a dog is baying near my ear. These earbuds have become my preferred method of hearing protection.

The Backstory

I have noticed that ear muffs and rifle stocks do not always play well together. The muffs and the stock somehow seem to get in each other’s way, with the stock banging the muffs, and the muffs making it difficult to acquire the sights. So when I ran across Axil GS Extreme Earbuds recently, I wanted to give them a try. I contacted Axil, and they were kind enough to provide a sample for testing and evaluation.

While the earbuds were in transit, Axil recommended that I watch a short video (4:28) with tips about how to get the best performance out of the earbuds. There were a number of major points that I took away from the video:
1. Proper fit is vital to achieving good results from the earbuds. The buds come with differing sized tips that can be used to achieve proper fit. For ears of an unusual size or shape, it is possible to order custom fitted earbuds.
2. If one is using foam tips, they should be compressed prior to inserting the earbuds. The earbuds should be inserted deep into the ear canal with a twisting motion.
3. In extremely loud environments, the volume of the earbuds should be turned down.Continue reading“Gear Review: Axil GS Extreme Earbuds, by The Novice”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

This weekly column is a collection of short snippets: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. We may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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Here is some cause for concern: Man finds Apple AirTag tracker on his Dodge Charger.  Note that these could be used by would-be thieves, would-be burglars, would-be rapists, stalkers, assorted psycopaths, or out-of-control government officials–with or without a warrant. The cost of an Apple AirTag is expected to drop below $25 in the next two years.

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I found this linked over at the great Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: ‘I told you we’d get ’em’: Incredible moment rescuers pull two babies from a bathtub after their grandmother tucked them inside with a Bible and a blanket as a tornado destroyed their Kentucky home.

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Reader D.S.V. forwarded this: 5-Year-Old Weeps as NYPD Demands to See Govt. Papers.

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Swedish company offers a COVID pass that gets under the skin.  JWR’s Comment:  I seem to remember reading about this technology somewhere, in a very old book…

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Richard T. had this suggestion:

“I just turned 74 this month and my toes still will hurt if they get cold from being frostbitten in my early 20’s when I was wearing tennis shoes and my car died in the dead of a Minnesota winter. I see people doing this all the time, wearing shorts, T-shirts, pajamas, even sandals in freezing weather. I believe you should be prepared to spend 24 hours in a vehicle in any kind of weather. The best and most thorough education one can get on how to prepare your vehicle is to watch YouTube videos on the topic with a pen and paper in hand. It is necessary to watch several as each situation is unique. Here are a couple that I have found: winter car accessories by Gear Junkie and 12 Things Every Man Should Carry In His Car WINTER EDITION 2020 by Wranglestar.”

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — December 28, 2021

Today, Tuesday, December 28, 2021 is the 80th birthday of Jerry Wigutow — the founder (and still the owner and operator) of Wiggy’s. It is one of the last American sleeping bag manufacturers. All of his company’s outstanding products sold under their brand name are still made by hand in Colorado. Happy Birthday, Jerry!

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December 28, 1793 is the day that Thomas Paine was arrested in France for treason. The charges against him were never fully detailed, but he was tried in absentia on December 26 and convicted. Best known as the author of Common Sense, he moved to Paris to be part of the French revolution. Initially welcomed, the tide soon turned against him, because he was opposed to the death penalty and the French revolutionaries were sending hundreds to the guillotine.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 98 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 98 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Off-Grid PV Power for an O2 Concentrator or CPAP, by Tunnel Rabbit

With the advent of new variants of Coronavirus in mind, and other diseases that will be present in a collapse when no doctor can be found, we may be faced with the long-term care of loved ones. The production of oxygen, and/or running a Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) machine could be necessary. What follows is my ‘notes on the back of an envelope’ attempt — a starting point that goes toward a solution. I am merely offering the reader my estimation of what it would take to get this done. This is the minimum PV power generation and storage requirement that I would recommend for operation for each of these life-saving machines.

Disclaimers and Provisos: I have no relationship with any of the companies mentioned. I am not a medical professional, nor am I an electrical engineer, but as most preppers, I strive to do the best I can and offer this educated estimate to others as a starting point for their own research. This is intended to be only a feasibility study for those who would install it themselves.

My estimate is based upon my experience living off-grid using only a small off-grid PV system. Simple math can only be a guide, as there are many variables that cannot be factored in. Therefore, it is better to over-engineer to compensate for an electrically inefficient design and hidden losses within a system. I am not recommending an inverter, or calculating in the loss of power due to the  use of an inverter. It is far better to use a DC appliance that used 12 VDC directly, if it can be found.

If one cannot find a suitable 12VDC appliance, then the purchase of an expensive and quality inverter is necessary. The low-cost inverters are not recommended as their reliability is questionable, and the dirty power they produced might harm the appliance. If the use of an inverter is required, then add approximately 20 percent to the recommended PV array wattage and battery storage capacity, and at least $2,000 to the overall cost. This estimate is based upon an oxygen concentrator on the market that requires the least amount of power, and that can be operated directly with 12 VDC power, should that be found. It is the most efficient, the smallest, and least expensive, most reliable system for the money.Continue reading“Off-Grid PV Power for an O2 Concentrator or CPAP, by Tunnel Rabbit”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, we again focus on the Greater Idaho Project. The image above shows the election results in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, with an overlay of the proposed expanded state lines for Greater Idaho. (See the Region-Wide section.)

Region-Wide

The Atlantic reports: Modern America’s Most Successful Secessionist Movement. (Thanks to Brad F. for the link.) JWR’s Comment:  I wish that journalists would learn the difference between the words secession and partition. Most of the movements described in the article simply seek to re-partition states, not remove them from the Union.

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Douglas County Clerk says Greater Idaho has enough valid signatures.

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Reader “Alva” wrote us:

“I found a recent Wall Street Journal article interesting. This was front-page news in the 22 December 2021 edition of the Wall Street Journal print edition. It is titled: Pandemic Sets Back Population Growth.

Here are some quotes from the article:

“America’s population grew 0.1% this year, the lowest rate on record, according to Census Bureau figures released Tuesday that show how the pandemic is changing the country’s demographic contours.”

[The article attributes the decline to COVID 19, yet this decline seems to have happened since 2016.]

“Seventeen states lost population, led by New York (-1.6%), Illinois (-0.9%) and Hawaii (-0.7%). California, which recorded only its second decrease ever after logging its first last year, dropped by 0.7%. The District of Columbia’s population dropped 2.9%.

More broadly, the Midwest lost 0.1% and the Northeast lost 0.6%. The West was essentially flat, while the South gained 0.6%. Texas, the largest Southern state, gained 1.1%. States that grew the most included Idaho (2.9%), Utah (1.7%) and Montana (1.7%). “

“Most of those caught trying to cross the border illegally are being sent back, while the pandemic has slowed legal immigration channels, with visa processing at about half normal levels and the refugee-admissions program at a standstill. Census figures include people residing in the U.S. illegally, though their exact numbers can be difficult to pin down.”

Idaho

IDFG relocates cow and calf moose from city of Kendrick. JWR’s Comment: With a population of only about 320, it is probably best to refer to Kendrick as a “town.”

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Another one to file under “Perps from Outside the Redoubt: Boise PD: Officers nab man accused of breaking into vehicles on Parkcenter Blvd.

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Idaho’s Senator Jim Risch: Supply is down, prices are up, and Idahoans are worried.

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‘Post-mortem mayhem’: Court docs detail cannibalism charge in North Idaho murder.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

Preparedness Notes for Monday — December 27, 2021

On this day in 1979, in an attempt to stabilize the turbulent political situation in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union sent 75,000 troops to enforce the installation of Babrak Karmal as the new leader of the nation. The new government and the imposing Soviet presence, however, had little success in putting down anti-government rebels. Thus began nearly 10 years of an agonizing, destructive, and ultimately fruitless Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan.

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Today we present a review written by our stalwart Field Gear Editor, Pat Cascio.