Jim,
Here is some info on what is presently a freeware application which I can quite-honestly classify as in the “Save Your Bacon” category. (it sure saved my rump, on at least one very significant occasion.) It does its’ job, it is small, and it is freeware. My conscience would bother me no end if I kept this gem to myself; perhaps you and/or the blog might benefit from this goody. – Ben L.
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Letter Re: Yet Another Article Touting “Mobility” for Survival
Jim:
Thank you for response on the mobile survival fantasy. I think it is dangerous for the average Joe to believe that he can be a mountain man. Sure, some can, in some climates and locations with lots of training. Even then it’s dangerous and unpredictable. A twisted ankle can be the end of you. Remember too, those mountain survival stories were from the days when the wildlife in this country was at much higher levels. For most of us it means being cold, wet, tired, hungry and thirsty in the woods and being targets on the streets. (“Nice pack man, what ‘cha got in there? Hey, your wife/daughter sure looks purty…”)
Other pet peeves of mine are the twin television fantasies regarding water and guns. First thing you notice on TV ‘survival scenes’ is the lack of packed water. The heroes mount up with their guns and attitude, but… no water? Yup, it’s heavy to pack and takes up space. Nope, there are no water fountains in the woods. The communal fountains that people could drink out of are mostly gone from cities. True, most cities were founded by the water for transportation, but that means you need either a water distiller/desalinator for the oceans or a really good filter for the rivers. Drinking the water from a river in a major city might work months after a TEOTWAWKI when upstream factories shut down and stop using the river as a toilet, but for now it’s really nasty.
Just imagine walking through a city with the stores closed/burned/looted and the the water pressure gone. I grew up in NYC and the only place I can think of to get water in that scenario would be the reservoir in Harlem. A dangerous place in the best of times. Also, with a pack, you’ll sweat more. I can get by on very little water in my office, but on a trail with a pack in the noon day sun I get dehydrated real fast.
Television peeve #2 is the one shot kill (and one punch knock out). Just shoot the bad guy once and he’s down? Unless it is a central nervous system hit (spinal cord or brain) he’s not down. Even a heart shot gives him enough time, say 6 seconds, to stab you or shoot back if he’s angry or drugged enough. How far can a man run in 6 seconds? Will he close the gap? It’s not whether the bad guy dies from the wounds you inflict on him, it’s whether you kill him in such a way as to deny him the ability to return the favor.
FWIW, here is a compilation of my top 15 survival fantasies and misconceptions:
1. You can fit everything you need for extended survival in a backpack
2. A single shot not hitting the brain or spinal cord less or than .40/.44/.45 caliber will stop an attacker before he can kill you
3. I don’t need to bring that much water
4. The government is here to help
5. I’m in good enough shape right now to hike 20 miles with a 70 pound pack
6. Everything I have stored still works, hasn’t expired, I know how to use it and I know where it is
7. I can buy what I need at the first sign of impending crisis
8. My kids can keep up with me on an extended hike
9. Farming/livestock/hunting/fishing/trapping are easy to learn from a book, I don’t need practical experience
10. God will help me. I’ll be in the right place at the right time if I am a good person
11. I can argue/discuss/bargain with a bad guy(s). I don’t have to shoot them.
12. If I shoot them, I can wound them, I don’t have to kill.
13. By virtue of my obvious survival knowledge, foresight and preparedness, my family/friends/neighbors will agree that I am the best suited to lead our newly formed fledgling survival group and will listen and carry out my suggestions.
14. Life in TEOTWAWKI will be fun. Since there will be no more taxes/bills/mortgage to pay and I don’t have to show up for work it will be hard but rewarding. Add that to the satisfaction of being able to say “I told you so” and given my preparations, I’ll be better off then than I am now.
15. My stash of silver pre-1965 coins will let me live like a king
Survival fantasies. We all have them, and we all need to lose them. – SF in Hawaii
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Odds ‘n Sods:
Former CIA energy analyst Tom Whipple reports: The Peak Oil Crisis: Congressional Hearings – Round #2
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Cathy Buckle reports from Zimbabwe: Police crackdown on illegal small scale miners leads to deaths. Just more of the same government heavy-handedness in troubled Zimbabwe. The once quite productive and prosperous nation is now chronically racked by hyperinflation. Speaking of inflation, be sure to scroll down to Cathy’s January 6th post, which includes this: “Before Christmas a loaf of bread was 295 dollars, now it is 850 dollars – the bakers say its still not enough to cover their costs and more rises are imminent…”
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A tip of the hat to John the Bowhunter for sending this news article on the “cytokine storm” effect:: 1918 flu killed by turning the body against itself
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Jim’s Quote of the Day:
"Next to the right of liberty, the right of property is the most important individual right guaranteed by the Constitution and the one which, united with that of personal liberty, has contributed more to the growth of civilization than any other institution established by the human race." – William Howard Taft
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Note from JWR:
Today’s installment of SurvivalBlog will exceed your recommended daily dose of Gloom und Doom (GUD).
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The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty
At the dawn of the 21st century, we are living in an amazing time of prosperity. Our health care is excellent, our grocery store shelves burgeon with a huge assortment of fresh foods, and our telecommunications systems are lightning fast. We have relatively cheap transportation, and our cities are linked by an elaborate and fairly well-maintained system of roads, rails, canals, seaports, and airports. For the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s population will soon live in cities rather than in the countryside. But the downside to all this abundance is over-complexity, over-specialization, and lengthy supply chains. In the First World, less than 2% of the population is engaged in agriculture or fishing. Ponder that for a moment: Just 2% are feeding the other 98%. The food on our tables often comes from hundreds if not thousands of miles away. Our heating and lighting is provided by power sources typically hundreds of miles away. For many people even their tap water travels hundreds of miles. Our factories produce sophisticated cars and electronics that have subcomponents that are sourced on three continents. It is as if we are all cogs in an enormous invisible machine, each playing our part to make sure that the average Americans comes home from work each day to find: his refrigerator well-stocked with food, his lights reliably come on, his telephone works, his tap gushes pure water, his toilet flushes, his paycheck is automatically deposited to his bank, his garbage is collected, his house is a comfortable 70 degrees, his TV entertainment up and running 24/7, and his DSL connection. We’ve built our fellow Americans a very big machine that up until now has worked remarkably well, with just a few glitches. But that may not always be the case. As Napoleon found the hard way, long chains of supply and communication are fragile and vulnerable. Someday the big machine may grind to a halt. Let me describe one set of circumstances that could cause that to happen:
Imagine an influenza pandemic, spread by causal contact, that is so virulent that it kills more than half of the people that are infected. And imagine the advance of the disease so rapid that it makes its way around the globe in less than a week. (Isn’t modern jet air travel grand?) Consider that we have global news media that is so rabid for “hot” news that they can’t resist showing pictures of men in respirators, rubber gloves, and Tyvek coveralls wheeling gurneys out of houses, laden with body bags. They report countless stories like: “Suzie Smith brought the flu bug home from school. Everyone in her family died.” and, “Mr. Jones brought the flu home from work. Everyone in his family died.” Over and over. Repeated so many times that the majority of citizens decides “I’m not going to go to work tomorrow, or the day after, or in fact until after ‘things get better.'” But by not going to work, some important cogs will be missing from the Big Machine. Orders won’t get processed at the Wal-Mart distribution center. The 18 Wheel trucks won’t make deliveries to groceries stores. Gas stations will run out of fuel. Policemen and firemen won’t show up at work. Telephone technicians will call in sick. Power lines will get knocked down in wind storms, and there will be nobody to repair them. Crops will rot in the fields because there will be nobody to pick them, or transport them, or magically bake them into Pop-Tarts, or stock them on your supermarket shelf. The Big Machine will be broken.
Does this sound scary? Sure it does, and it should. The implications are huge. But it gets worse: The average suburbanite only has about a week’s worth of food in their pantry. What will they do when it is gone, and there is no reasonably immediate prospect of re-supply? Supermarket shelves will be stripped bare. Faced with the alternative of staying home and starving or going out to meet Mr. Influenza, millions of growling stomachs will force Joe American to go and “forage.” The first likely targets will be restaurants, stores, and food distribution warehouses. Not a few “foragers” will soon transition to full scale looting, taking the little that their neighbors have left. Next, they’ll move on to farms that are in close proximity to cities. A few looters will form gangs that will be highly mobile and well-armed, ranging deeper and deeper into farmlands, running their vehicles on siphoned or stolen-at-gunpoint gasoline. Eventually their luck will run out and they will all die of the flu, or of instantaneous lead poisoning. But before the looters are all dead they will do a tremendous amount of damage. Be ready to confront them. Your life, and the lives of your loved ones will count on it. You’ll need to be able to put a lot of lead down range–at least enough to convince Mr. Looter that he needs to go find some other farm or ranch to loot.
In recent months, the press has shifted its attention, ignoring the continuing threat of Asian Avian Flu mutating into a strain that can be easily transmitted between humans. If and when that mutation occurs–and the epidemiologists tell us that it is more a question of “when” rather than “if”–then things could turn very, very ugly all over the globe. Be prepared. To start getting ready, you should first read the background article on pandemic preparation that I wrote last year, titled “Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic.” Next, think through all of the implications of disruption of key portions of our modern technological infrastructure. Plan accordingly. You need to be able to provide water, food, heating, and lighting for your family. Ditto for law enforcement, since odds are that a pandemic will be YOYO (“You’re on your own!”) time. Get your beans, bullets, and band-aids squared away, pronto. Most importantly, be prepared to hunker down in “self quarantine” for three or four months, with no outside contact. That will take a lot of logistics, as well as plenty of cash on hand to pay your bills in the absence of a continuing income stream.
One closing thought: There are only about 15 large food storage dealers in the country, and even fewer firms that sell non-hybrid (“heirloom”) gardening seed. How long do you think that their inventories will last, once there is news that there is an easily transmissible human-to-human flu strain of flu, anywhere on the planet? Prices are currently low and inventories are plentiful. It is better to be a year too early than a day too late. Please consider patronizing one of more of our advertisers. We have half a dozen of them that sell long term storage food and heirloom garden seed. They deserve your business.
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Letter Re: Advice on Silver Coins and Silver Certificates
Dear Jim:
I am new to survival preparedness but I am learning by reading SurvivalBlog every day and your book Patriots. I do have a question about junk silver. My dad always collected coins when I was a kid and he always told me about saving the ones from before 1965 as they were silver and I have a small stash from those years. But what about the [Eisenhower] “silver dollars” from the 1970’s? I always got those as gifts when I was a kid and I have a small stash of those too. Do these “silver dollars” have any real silver in them? Are they worth keeping with my “junk silver” stash? What about the new Liberty “Silver Dollars” that the banks sell each year? Do they contain real silver? Are they worth the $17 per coin the that bank charges for these? And finally, I have some old “Silver Certificate” Dollar bills – any thoughts as to if those will have any worth in a SHTF scenario? Thanks for your help.
– L.C.A. in N.Y.
JWR Replies: Take a look at the rims of those Eisenhower”silver” dollars. If they have a copper color streak, then they have no significant silver contents. (Like the post-1964 quarters, they are a silver-flashed copper-nickel token.) There were a few Eisenhower dollars minted in 90% silver as “mint proofs”, struck especially for the collector market. These special silver proof coins will not show any copper on the rim. Nearly al of those will still be in special U.S. Mint holders, but it is conceivable that a few were removed from their holders and are floating around loose. It is worth your time to examine them. But the ones that are clad tokens only have marginal collector’s value
The “Liberty Dollars” and other one ounce silver rounds and bars–typically .999 fine (99.9%) silver–have been struck in large numbers by private mints over the years. Like the U.S. Mint American Eagle silver rounds, they are indeed pure silver. Silver one ounce rounds and bars are first sold at a huge premium over the spot price of silver. (At least 50%), but on the secondary market, they sell at just “spot”–the day’s current price of silver. I prefer pre-1965 U.S. coinage for barter–since they are more immediately recognized as genuine by the citizenry. But if you ever have the chance to buy some one ounce “rounds” right at or just over the current spot price of silver, then that would be worth purchasing.
Sadly, U.S. Silver Certificates have had no redeemability for silver since 1964. (Yet another broken promise from Uncle Sugar. They are marked “In Silver, Payable to Bearer on Demand”, but what they should have had printed is: “In Silver, Payable to Bearer on Demand, until we renege on our promise, then it’s tough Schumer for you.”) If a silver certificate $1 note is in minty condition, and depending on its issue series, it could be worth several dollars to a currency collector. (To currency collectors, condition is everything. They want notes that look brand new, with no signs of wear, folding, or discoloration.) Unless you intend to be a collector in the long term you are probably better off trading those notes to a coin shop for some circulated “junk” silver dimes or quarters that you could use for barter. Who knows, if you are lucky they might even give you $1 worth (in face value) of well-worn 90% silver coinage for each of those notes.
Letter Re: Streamlight Incandescent/LED Combo Flashlight
Dear Jim,
I just picked up a Streamlight Twin Task 3C from Flashlight Outlet. They were set up at the Indy 1500 Gun and Knife Show near my tables, and are great people to deal with.
This light is solidly machined from aluminum, small enough for use, large enough to make a handy baton, and gets 1 hour at 57 lumens of xenon bulb, 100 hours at 21 lumens of LED, and has a laser pointer. I didn’t really need the laser pointer, but it was $1 cheaper with it than the version without. It takes 3 common C cells. I plan to get
Other good Streamlight products are: This product for forensics use (detecting blood/protein stains has some dark but practical uses) and this one which can detect radiator coolant or HVAC gas leaks.
Another thing to consider with flashlights is that a small one, such as a standard Mini MagLite, is about the same size as a kubotan. When traveling or in restrictive locations such as schools where better weapons are not allowed, and as backup, this offers light and a way to apply force to nerve points. My kids are carrying them to school. – Michael Z. Williamson
Odds ‘n Sods:
Reader Ben L. mentioned this one: Bird flu reports spreading in Asia. Ben’s comment: “Scary stuff. The S.E. Asians appear (!) to be holding their end in check, but the way these things tend to get out of control, I’d have to say November 2008/February 2009 would be the time to watch out for. Yes, time to stock up on animal-protein goodies from your advertisers such as Freeze Dry Guy and PrepareTV.com. (My my; their Gourmet Supreme Pack looks to be delicious.)”
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Hurricane-force winds and rain lashed northern Europe on Thursday
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I heard from Kurt at Survival Enterprises: “When the driver showed up on Wednesday, we discovered that it was a 53′ container [of canned storage foods], not a 40′ one as we had expected. And it contained more than 14,000 cans, not the 11,000 that we had originally estimated. I had my wife doing a running inventory, while my son, myself, and five of our friends spent from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. unloading thousands of cases of food in the 15 degree weather. Holy cow! That’s a lot of food!” Stock up, folks. Prices won’t get any better than what Kurt is offering. These cans are all top quality, nitrogen packed, and most were canned within the last year. These are expected to all sell out within the next four weeks, so don’t hesitate.
Jim’s Quote of the Day:
"And can the liberties of a nation be thought secure when we have removed their only firm basis, a conviction in the minds of the people that these liberties are the gift of God? That they are not to be violated but with his wrath? Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just: that his justice cannot sleep for ever." – Thomas Jefferson
Notes from JWR:
The high bid in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a pair of MURS band handheld transceivers, with extended range flex antennas is now at $150. These radios were kindly donated by Rob at $49 MURS Radios. Check out his products. What Rob sells are a lot of radio for the money. I’ve heard nothing but rave reviews from the SurvivalBlog readers that have bought these. As previously mentioned in the blog, Kenwood 2 watt MURS handhelds have far better range than FRS radios, they require no license, and can be custom programmed for, MURS, 2 Meter Band frequencies and/or weather warning (WX, receive only) channels, and they are also compatible with alert message frequencies for Dakota Alert intrusion detection systems. (A license is required if using 2 Meter Band frequencies.) I strongly endorse these hand-helds! If you don’t already own a pair, look into getting some.
Our first letter today is from “Alphie Omega”, a frequent blog content contributor. While many of his neighbors were woefully under-prepared, Alphie pulled through the recent ice storm relatively unscathed. This is a testament to practicing what one preaches. He was well prepared well, and with considerable redundancy. Emulate him, folks! It doesn’t take a millionaire’s budget. With proper planning, you too can be ready for severe weather conditions or other emergencies. You’ll even have surplus available to dispense in charity.
Letter Re: Observations on the Recent Oklahoma Ice Storm
Jim:
Well, I just got back online. I had to go up to the roof and thaw the wireless [Internet] antenna with a heat gun. It seems the ice grounds out the antenna. It was an easy fix with my heat gun for heat shrink tubing. More precipitation is on the way but colder. It will probably just be snow. We never lost power but were ready anyway. I have friends with no power and they have been without power for days and no idea when it will be back on. The further out you live, the less chance of getting back on line. Power is also out at the feed mill so feed stores are short on feed and they say that they no idea when more will com. We bought extra and can always supplement with more hay or alfalfa. We could butcher the pigs early or sell some cattle if needed but all of our preparation this Fall is paying off. Think ahead! Wall-Mart is out of propane cylinders and no extra tanks around. We have plenty of tanks and are set to fill from the bulk tank here as needed. You always need an alternative means to do everything. Redundancy is the word for survival. I have some friends with no heat. They report 46 degrees in the house. Standard fireplaces put out very little heat. [JWR Adds: Yes, in fact they have been documented to put more heat up the chimney than into a room!] We have electric heat, woodstove, and propane heat. Redundancy means you will always be warm. We lost some branches and the storm knocked down my 160 Meter loop antenna but it works almost as well on the ground. (Thanks to the design and the antenna tuners we can just re-tune and are up and running.) Repair should take about 2 to 3 hours since the antenna is set to go up and down at each pole for maintenance. Hint: the design was well thought out and therefore easy to fix. Think ahead. Of course we have 4 or 5 ways to receive and transmit, plus the mobile radio. Again, redundancy. Our [photovoltaic] solar panels were covered with ice but still function, and we have more in the barn to use that are thawed. We continue to look for weak spots and all I came up with is the need for more batteries and more power. We have tow or three ways to do everything so if one system is down we just go to the next. Sure makes you feel good that instead of driving new vehicles we [instead] have heat, power, water, and food and backups for each. No worries about heat is a big relief. One of my friends has a generator, but no heat. Although he knows the items he needs to provide heat, there is nothing available. It is all sold out. Guess that is why I take those old propane heaters and put them in storage. Backup for the backup. We are looking forward to the snow–better than ice. We have wood to pick up today at the lumber mil. (We get the slabs from the mill, load on the trailer banded together and take them home. We cut it [for fuel] as we need it. More in the woods [hereon my property] but I will leave it for more backup. Keep preparing. Do one thing each day and it will all add up. Anyone got a good milk cow? We need a new one, since even livestock gets worn out and old. God Bless, – Alphie Omega
Letter Re: Veterinary Antibiotics and Medical Freezers
Jim:
A lot of folks, myself included, have been buying fish/aquarium grade antibiotics for a while now. Recently my favorite source dried up. I called them to ask why they no longer had the products and they stated that it is becoming difficult to carry them because the FDA is scrutinizing the industry. What was told to me was that the capsules were still available, in packs of 12. I did find other sources, but some publicly searchable web pages can no longer be found via Google – hidden pages that I couldn’t navigate to through the web sites search engine – I had to know the page URL. I think this source is going to dry up at some point, once the AMA/FDA/DEA turn their attention to people using these sources as alternatives to ‘regular medicine’ they will get banned somehow.
But I do have a medical grade freezer, thanks to information gleaned from SurvivalBlog – I found a refurbished one for $70 at an auction. It had been rejected because the housing had some dents in it. I’m stocking up. Again). I wouldn’t take my ‘the sky is falling’ e-mail as gospel, but it might be worth a look into by someone with more time on their hands than me. – Jim H. in Colorado
Odds ‘n Sods:
Chuck sent us this link: Peak Oil Update – January 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
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I noticed at the RWVA Blog that there are a whole bunch of Appleseed shoots and clinics already scheduled for this year, all over the country. (Alabama, California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Montana, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming.) More locations may be announced later. Check the schedule for a shoot near you.
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The big “Container load sale” at Survival Enterprises that I mentioned last week is now underway. They bought a shipping container of canned nitrogen packed long term storage foods from an east coast cannery that is going out of business. Survival Enterprises just received more than 11,000 cans of storage food, (a full to the gunnels 40 foot shipping container load) These include everything from beef, ham, chicken, and bacon TVP to green beans to corn starch,. The majority is in the large #10 cans, but there are thousands of #3 and #2.5 cans as well. (The smaller cans make more sense when planning meals for one, two or three people.) These cases of long term storage food are being sold only to SurvivalBlog readers at special prices for the next 30 days. All sales are in full case lots only (no breaking cases) and they are all “first come – first served.” The prices are less than half of retail. Survival Enterprises can take all major credit cards, PayPal, cash, gold and silver coins, but no checks or money orders. Survival Enterprises now has a web page that has the running inventory list with prices. (As they sell out an item, they keep visible track what is left.) All orders must be phoned in, or by appointment to come in and pick up your order in person. (Survival Enterprises is located in Coeur d’ Alene, Idaho.) For special requests, you can call Kurt of Survival Enterprises at (800) 753-1981 or locally at (208) 704-3935 as late as 8 p.m. Pacific time (5 p.m. Eastern time), or e-mail him at: kwATse1.us (Change the “AT” to an @symbol) OBTW, Kurt reminded me that he is also blowing out his remaining inventory of Mountain House freeze dried storage foods in conjunction with this sale, at 25% off.
Jim’s Quote of the Day
“[A]n act that is inherently evil does not become moral simply because there’s a majority consensus.” – Dr. Walter E. Williams