Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu and Waterfowl Migratory Flyways

1) I don’t know if you’ve seen it yet, but there is a map of “Waterfowl Flyways of North America” (put mouse cursor on icon in lower right corner and click to enlarge). This shows the routes that migratory ducks and geese follow when they return to the southern USA in the fall after mingling with Eurasian migratory birds in the subarctic over the summer.
2) That is, the map shows the primary routes along which Avian flu would be transmitted into the USA:
a) Coastal bays like the Chesapeake and Delaware on the East Coast and San Francisco on the West Coast ,
b) Major rivers like the Hudson (New York), Susquehanna (Pennsylvania), Potomac (Maryland/Virginia), Mississippi plus tributaries (Midwest),
Ohio (Midwest), and Columbia (Oregon) , and
c) Either side of major barriers like the Rocky Mountains, the deserts of Nevada/Arizona, and the Sierra Mountains
3) Note that it’s possible that an Avian flu pandemic might persist for several years, since flocks of migratory waterfowl form a “reservoir” in which it can culture –in the same way that the plague is preserved in prairie dog colonies of the Southwest USA and infects people every year. See: “Plagues and Peoples” by William McNeill.
4) As an exercise in “survivalist paranoia”, it’s interesting that Porter Goss abruptly resigned as Director of CIA back in early May — a few days after the White House released it’s Pandemic Flu plan. Most people don’t know that Porter Goss is quite wealthy –well over a million net worth. In the 1960s after the Cuban Missile Crisis, Porter Goss left the CIA and settled on Sanibel Island near the bottom of southwest Florida — one of only a few spots in the USA that would have survived the massive fallout from a Soviet Nuclear Strike.
5) Now, the news reports that “Goss and his wife own a central Virginia farm, where they raise cattle, sheep and chickens. ” See very bottom of this article
It just so happens that Porter Goss’s Central Virginia farm is one of the few spots in the country that does not have geese carrying Avian flu flying over it.
6) When the pandemic hits, interstate transport shuts down and the politicians in Washington are feeding on each other like cannibals –literally, not just politically — Goss will be setting on his front porch eating homemade cheese, sipping homemade Cabernet and enjoying the rural sunset. Laughing his behind off as he tells his wife about how Donald Rumsfeld talked
Vice President Dick Cheney into buying a $2.9 Million estate on the Chesapeake Bay–an area which receives the largest dump of migratory goose droppings in the country. Regards, – D.W.

Two Letters Re: David in Israel on “When the Only Tool You Have is a Hammer” Syndrome, and Building a Post-TEOTWAWKI Shelter

James:
G’day, just a quick comment on David’s well reasoned article. Ragnar Benson has a good set of plans and quite well written instructions on building an “A” frame cabin, from scratch, along with a list of kit you will need to make it easier contained in the book ‘Living Off the Land in City and Country’. We used it as the basis for our ‘holiday cabin’ (that’s what we tell
our friends/relatives) and it seems to work quite well even after five years of weathering the varied Australian seasons. It is a bit more involved than a simple lean to, but if you are planning a long stay, it could well be worth the effort. Ours took the two of us four weekends and one full week (call it 14 days all up) to complete.
I did like the bit about the greenhouse, can anyone guess the next thing to be built on our scrub block? As a plus, it will give us some additional rainwater catchment area. I would not have thought of the large garden shed approach, but in hindsight, it seems obvious. The shed, a potbelly stove for heat and cooking, a portable greenhouse, a means of collecting and treating the rainwater runoff, and you would be well ahead of the curve, at least in the shelter department. Cheers, – Dave

JWR Replies: Benson’s book is still in print an available through Amazon.com. But for the best price, get a copy through eBay.

Jim,
A book I highly recommend is “One Man’s Wilderness: An Alaskan Odyssey” by Sam Keith. It shows how to make a cabin with the most simple tools. Excellent DVD on this as well. Though Alaska is not the ideal locale for long term , this book shows what a desolate lifestyle is like. Excellent read! – Jason North Idaho

Letter Re: .50 BMG Rifles on AR-15 Receivers

Dear Jim:
I was reading Boston’s Gun Bible last night and he recommended purchasing a 50 BMG rifle because he believes that it is most definitely at the top of the “too be banned list.”

1.) Do you think that the .50 cal. is an intelligent purchase for a survival scenario?

2.) Boston mentioned a 50 BMG AR-15 conversion package where the .50 caliber upper is used on an AR-15 lower receiver to convert it to a [single shot] .50 BMG. (And, no FFL is required.) What is your opinion of this system? (The approximate cost is $2,000 for a single-shot bolt action. No magazines are used.)

3.) Barrett makes a .50 BMG rifle for about $8,000. And, for this price, do you like this brand? Or is there another .50 cal manufacturer that you would recommend? – B’shem Yahshua HaMoshiach, – Dr. Sidney Zweibel, Columbia P&S

JWR Replies: I do recommend buying one .50 BMG rifle for each family or group retreat, if you budget allows it. However, I’d recommend buying one only after you have bought your primary .308 rifles, your .45 ACP handguns for each adult as well as your key food storage and other logistics.

The brand that I recommend is the Spider Arms Ferret .50. It is a no-FFL .50 BMG upper kit that goes on a standard.223 AR lower. I believe that the “paperwork free AR upper” approach is preferable because it is both the most economical and low profile. It is important to use all legal means to avoid a paper trail, since “.50s” on Form 4473s might be subject to close scrutiny at a later date.) OBTW, I prefer the longer (36″) barrels. (The 18″ barrel offered with the Ferret .50 is way too short and the standard 29″ is a bit short to maximize the ballistics of the .50 BMG cartridge.)

In answer to your question on Barrett rifles, I would rather have a Ferret .50, or perhaps two of them, plus a lot of .50 BMG ammo and cash left over–all for the price of one Barrett.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Mat the Prop Wizard sent a link for another great article from Make magazine. This one describes emergency arc welding, using automotive batteries. Cooool! I had heard this technique described by some off-road jeep rally buddies, but this is the first time I’ve ever seen the details in an article.

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Rourke mentioned that the Sci-Fi Channel is getting into the act, with their own “Countdown to Doomsday”–with numerous Doomsday Scenarios

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Independent Petroleum Geologist Jeffrey J. Brown’s commentary: “Has oil peaked?: Yes”

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The Homeland Security Department says that The U.S. is Not Ready for Disasters

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Man’s mind is his basic tool of survival. Life is given to him, survival is not. His body is given to him, its sustenance is not. His mind is given to him, its content is not. To remain alive, he must act, and before he can act, he must know the nature and purpose of his action. He cannot obtain food without a knowledge of food and of the way to obtain it. He cannot dig a ditch — or build a cyclotron — without a knowledge of his aim and the means to achieve it. To remain alive, he must think.” – John Galt in Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged

Note From JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction (for a fully stocked M-17 Advanced Medical Bag/Rucksack) is at $250. Special thanks to the fine folks at Ready Made Resources, who kindly donated the kit. Please submit your bids via e-mail. This auction ends on the last day of June.

 

David in Israel on “When the Only Tool You Have is a Hammer” Syndrome, and Building a Post-TEOTWAWKI Shelter

One of the most frightening aspects of attempting survival especially in North America is surviving the survivalists. These pseudo-survivors dutifully stock up arms and ammunition at great personal expense but fail to do any other planning expecting to presumably live off of the spoils of the MZBs (mutant zombie bikers) who they eliminate. A physical therapist once gave me a bit of wisdom about his trade and people in general; “every back problem looks like a surgical fix to a surgeon and chiropractic care is the sure cure to a chiropractor”. (Clearly the good doctors do not do not fall into this category.) There is an old saying: “When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem tends to look like a nail.” In the same vein if your only survival tool is a well stocked weapons battery every problem looks like a gun fix. The hungrier and colder you get, the more you may fall into the MZB category. Consider a proper USFS type Pulaski tool, which is a combination axe and digging hoe. This tool is at least as valuable as any firearm to a survivor!

The biggest weakness for the first few weeks post-TEOTWAWKI is the lack of proper shelter. The land upon which your domicile will rest is discussed elsewhere we need to think of appropriate solutions for the area you are planning to relocate to if it is required. These solutions being prompt at best will allow even the “grasshoppers” a chance to have a more livable dwelling if they have to bug out.

Your Car or a Tent
The tent not so bad for a short stay–around a week–but your tent is best saved for last unless it is of a heavy canvas or military type. Provision for heating must be considered. A military Arctic tent and wood/diesel stove is designed to be sledded into a remote area by a skier. Your vehicle provides cramped quarters and extremely fuel intensive heating, unless you have a camper van or canopy for your truck this is also a week at best type venture. A big benefit initially for being inside your vehicle is quick retreat.

Prefabricated Shelter
If given a little warning a small utility shed could be dismantled and loaded onto a trailer. Check your shed now to see if this is a possibility. A better solution is to order a small shed with a proper door and maybe a window and long overhang for a porch. These can be loaded onto a trailer or even a pickup bed and assembled at your selected retreat. I place the greenhouse in this same category. You will need food. During the winter, vitamin malnutrition is a serious problem, several hundred dollars spent on a shed and another few dollars spent on a decent greenhouse can make the difference.

On Site Materials
If your are a very successful hunter (highly unlikely for the first few years post TEOTWAWKI due to massive survival over hunting) the tepee might be an option to replace your tent. A better option in many parts of the USA, Europe, Canada, and Russia is the log cabin. The log cabin is reasonably simple to build and requires beginner skill for a small home. Practice is very useful it would be worth your time now to build a log doghouse or even table top model to give you practice for the real thing.
Without a modern hardware store window glass, hinges, rebar or spikes for joints, a cement chimney and a solid door will be difficult to improvise. The main tools required is an axe, plumb lines, marking tools, compass, and rule. All of these except the axe can be easily improvised. Four large, man-movable rocks with a flat surface will suffice for the corners of a small cabin something 3M x 4M,. Anything larger would require additional rock foundation on the long sides. A proper lock-notch reminiscent of Lincoln Logs can stand in for spiking if none are to be found. Work in one direction with the stacking alternation top to bottom so fit is better on every layer. Don’t worry about gaps under around 5 cm as you will be stuffing mosses between every layer for wind-proofing and insulation. After the house is built make a jam-stick to force more moss or similar material into the gaps. If you can, wait until the wood is seasoned then mud it over. (Green wood shrinks and would require re-stuffing and re-mudding.) A roof can go from pine boughs to sod to shingles depending upon time and materials, if you had the foresight to include thick plastic or tarp in your gear this when sandwiched between pole layers makes for a decent temporary roof liner. Pad it with sod to prevent wear and punctures. Forget about peaked roofs unless you are in heavy snow country where a log A-frame would be better, tall roofs waste all of the heat near the top while you are freezing. A short building with a shed roof is better. Your door is a difficult addition to the cabin, a dig under is simpler but less comfortable, lag bolts for the frame plus cross placed lock logs (think the short Lincoln logs) may make this safer. Consider a combination dig-out and short door for your entry with buckskin to cover the opening. A fire ring inside your cabin and a buckskin flap vent hole in your roof will allow you to heat and cook but BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FIRE! Clay and stone might be used to build a chimney fireplace but be wary of the temptation to improvise by using mudded over wood for a fireplace. A bed is made by making a mini cabin in the same rectangular shape of your bed with a roof of poles cover with 10-20 cm of boughs cut when they reach nearly pencil
size 8-9mm. The largest dangers with an improvised the cabin are collapse and fire. Consider bracing and cross members in a un-spiked cabin. Be careful with fire.

TEOTWAWKI could happen anytime. Have shelter and food preparations made. Install a mobile, shipping container, shed or other shelter on that piece of land. Don’t be a grasshopper well armed and trained survivalists with no stored food or shelter are the scariest MZBs of all. Hunger and cold allow people to justify the most outrageous decisions. Even easier to justify decisions such as armed robbery when your family is hurting. We will all stand to be judged by the Creator of the universe in the end.

Letter Re: Understanding the Terrorist Threat Requires Understanding Their Mindset

Dear James,
I witnessed a live presentation from “The Three Ex-Terrorists” several months ago. For those who want to understand the mindset of an Islamic terrorist and the ability to completely change one’s life, their story and insights provide actionable information. One of them killed over 200 people. They have presented to government officials but they are too politically incorrect for the liberal media to do more than very short interviews with. See also www.shoebat.com.- Yorie in Pennsylvania.

JWR Replies: Lest anyone think that SurvivalBlog is overtly political or religious, I’m posting Yorie’s letter and links for a reason that entirely transcends politics and religion. The Islamic terrorist threat in North America, Western Europe, and Australia is a real and present danger. The advent of weapons of mass destruction has increased the terrorist threat by several orders of magnitude. Never before in history have a handful of fanatics had the potential to kill tens of thousands of people and destroy an entire national economy. World War I was started because of the assassination of a European royal by a lone terrorist. The incidents of 9/11/01 (with 3,000+ deaths) radically changed our perception of the damage that a few terrorists could wreak.

And people wonder why I “deprived” my family by moving them to a lightly populated region…

Odds ‘n Sods:

Al Qaeda Cell Had Plans to Gas New York Subways

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Rourke recommended this informative site on home ethanol production: http://www.homedistiller.org/ If you spend a lot of time researching there, or end up building a still based on their plans, be sure to send them a contribution.

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Does anyone make a “Red Gun” or “Blue Gun” Model 1911 non-firing training pistol with a magazine well and a functional magazine catch? (I’m in need of one here at the ranch, so we can teach our kids presentation drills as well as tactical and emergency reload drills.) My web searches thusfar have been unproductive.

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From Wembley England, comes a news story about a three year conviction for possession for a “large quantity” of ammunition, that all fit in a rucksack. Large quantity? If they ever saw the ammo cans that I have stacked in Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (the JASBORR), they’d have a heart attack.

 

Northern Tool & Equipment (one of our Affiliate advertisers) has announced that that will be offering free shipping on all UPS Ground orders over $149. This promotion starts Monday, June 19th and ends on Wednesday, July 5th. You will need to enter keycode 90473 in order to receive the shipping discount. This is a great offer, especially if you want to order a heavy item such as generator.

 

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Those gentlemen, who will be elected senators, will fix themselves in the federal town, and become citizens of that town more than of your state." – George Mason

Two Letters Re: Updated Nuclear Weapon Targeting Data?

Dear Jim,
I love your site. This is just a quick note while you are on the subject of the nuclear threat. I have been following Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief web site for the past few years and he seems to be of the opinion that this is a threat we should take very seriously. I encourage your readers to check out his article on analysis of strategic threats. I also HIGHLY recommend his books “The Secure Home” and “Strategic Relocation.” I know you’ve mentioned his books before in past articles but it is worth repeating. No preparedness library would be complete without them. – “Kaivman”

 

Dear Jim:
The Nuclear Weapon Archive has a lot of useful information on the past and present of national arsenals. The Russians seem to have much lower capabilities now than previously, but it’s believable and reasonable, given the state of their economy and domestic troubles. I don’t believe they’re a likely threat any time soon. Here are some brief quotes from the site:
“This single warhead missile is currently (late 1997) the only strategic nuclear delivery system in production in Russia.”
“The Topol has a range of 10,500 km, and a payload of 1000 kg. It is armed with a single 550 KT warhead with an accuracy (CEP – circular error probability) of 200 m.”
Russia does not appear to have any ERRB (Enhanced Radiation Reduced Blast) warheads for strategic use. China may:
“Current estimates assert that only about 20 ICBMs are in service – the Dong Feng (East Wind)-5A. This figure is surprising in light of China’s ability to produce the same basic booster in larger numbers as the Long March 2 satellite launcher. The U.S. government has stated that in 1981 there were DF-5As deployed in hardened silos at two sites. It is thought to carry the largest warhead ever tested by China (4-5 MT).”
“The neutron bomb claimed by China is strictly a tactical weapon (designed for use against armored vehicles). China has conducted a number of low yield tests that may have been tactical weapons, and a large military exercise incorporating simulated nuclear weapons was held in June 1982.”
Their best missile is estimated at a 13,000 km range, making them more of a potential threat than Russia. I don’t believe their dependence on our market for their economy makes an attack likely in the foreseeable future. – Michael Z. Williamson

Letter Re: Toilet Paper Calculations

Jim,
I hope the following information will help some of the readers with their supplies of toilet paper. I consider this a very important part of the total preparedness plan. If anything it will be a tremendous comfort for people during a really Schumer time. I will mention toilet paper brands, however, this is in no way an endorsement of any particular brand.
I was always curious how much toilet paper I would need per person for a year during a post-SHTF event. Not being the one that bought the stuff I relied on the wife for this. The info I got just wasn’t exact enough. I really needed to know so as to have enough on hand. I did what anyone would do and searched the internet. I was looking for the average amount of toilet paper that is used per person per day. Wikipedia had the answer. It said that Charmin Toilet Paper determined that an American uses 57 sheets of TP per day. I needed to convert this into how many rolls used per year. All brands make different size rolls of TP. So to make it easy I used Charmin’s numbers. Charmin makes 176, 352, 440 and 704 sheet rolls of TP. For my calculations I used a roll of 352 sheets. The number of ply’s was not considered. If I use 57 sheets per day that comes to 20,805 sheets per year or (using 352 sheets per roll) 60 rolls per year. Again, your numbers will vary depending on what sheet count you buy and even your daily usage. Multiply that by the number of family members and it should give you a pretty good idea of your yearly TP needs. You might want to add an extra case(s) for good measure incase mice, water, charity or what ever depletes part of your stash of TP. Try and buy the cases of TP that are in the cardboard boxes. This will provide them some limited protection. Plastic tubs are another good form of protection. These would also help you with storage issues because the cases could be broken down into smaller units. Make sure you identify them.
If you have a retreat and are expecting people to be there they should preposition TP for themselves (as well as other stuff). You can’t be expected to provide everything for everybody.
As Buckshot mentioned in an earlier post, telephone books can be a good source of TP. I consider this emergency TP. I consider using the full size telephone books but the smaller ones work also. Each page can be cut in half long ways and used that way. Maybe crumpling them up and then unfolding them will make them a little softer to use. Oh well, hope this helps some of your readers. – Larry in Kansas

JWR Replies: As previously mentioned in this blog and in my novel “Patriots”, I recommend acquiring a large stack of telephone books to use a secondary supply of toilet paper. Phone books are usually available free for the asking. New phone books would be preferable (more sanitary), but they are not quite so readily available as used ones.

 

Odds ‘n Sods:

The U.S. The government is asking for public comments on the USDA‘s NAIS animal identification/tracking scheme. Please give them a piece of your mind. (For some background on the NAIS plan, see The Memsahib’s article.)

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A Category 5 Hurricane Landfall in Miami Could Cost Insurers Up To $130 Billion

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There is currently an interesting thread of conversation about wind generators over at The Claire Files.

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North Korea is about to test an ICBM capable of reaching the US

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To compete with the Canadian Maple Leaf, the U.S. Mint will soon release a .9999 Fine “Buffalo” gold coin. These new one ounce coins will be available for ordering next week, and deliveries begin in early July. The mint decided that there was sufficient market demand to produce both the .9167 fine “hard” American Eagles, and “soft” .9999 fine Buffaloes. To prevent damage, the “Buffs” will be individually encapsulated. The only downside is that this will make them more bulky to store than Eagles. Why .9999? In some markets such as India, investors prefer pure gold bullion coins rather than circulating bullion coins with hardeners added. Such coins are more easily usable for conversion to jewelry or for industrial use.

  

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Personal honor, decency, and courage are the basis of any successful civilization. Moral and virtuous citizens form the rock of any successful society. Toleration of, and eventual encouragement of, corruption, iniquity, and sleaziness unfailingly mark the decline of a civilization." – John Farnam

The U.S. in 1906 Versus 2006

I generally ignore most of those ubiquitous thrice forwarded pieces of Internet trivia and humor, but I thought that the following one was worthy and would be of particular interest to SurvivalBlog readers in the U.S.:

The year is 1906. One hundred years ago. What a difference a century makes!

Here are some of the U.S. statistics for the Year 1906 :
The average life expectancy in the U.S. was 47 years.

Only 14 percent of the homes in the U.S. had a bathtub.

Only 8 percent of the homes had a telephone. A three-minute call from Denver to New York City cost $11.

There were only 8,000 automobiles in the U.S., and only 144 miles of paved roads.The maximum speed limit in most cities was 10 mph.

Alabama, Mississippi, Iowa, and Tennessee were each more heavily populated than California.With a mere 1.4 million people, California was only the 21st
most populous state in the Union.

The tallest structure in the world was the Eiffel Tower.

The average wage in the U.S. was 22 cents per hour. The average U.S. worker made between $200 and $400 per year. A competent accountant could expect to earn $2,000 per year,
a dentist $2,500 per year, a veterinarian between $1,500 and $4,000 per year, and a mechanical engineer about $5,000 per year. More than 95 percent of all births in the U.S. took place at home. Ninety percent of all U.S. doctors had NO COLLEGE EDUCATION! Instead, they attended so-called medical schools, many of which were condemned in the press and the government as “substandard.”

Sugar cost four cents a pound. Eggs were fourteen cents a dozen. Coffee was fifteen cents a pound. Most women only washed their hair once a month, and used Borax or egg yolks for shampoo. Canada passed a law that prohibited poor people from entering into their country for any reason. The five leading causes of death in the U.S. were:
1. Pneumonia and influenza
2. Tuberculosis
3. Diarrhea
4. Heart disease
5. Stroke

The American flag had 45 stars. Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Alaska hadn’t yet been admitted to the Union. The population of Las Vegas, Nevada, was only 30.

Crossword puzzles, canned beer, and ice tea hadn’t been invented yet. There was no Mother’s Day or Father’s Day. Two out of every 10 U.S. adults couldn’t read or write.

Only 6 percent of all Americans had graduated from high school. Eighteen percent of households in the U.S. had at least one full-time servant or domestic help.

For the year, there were about 230 reported murders in the entire country.