Letter Re: Safe Businesses in an Economic Depression?

Mr. Rawles:
I’m convinced that given the bursting of the Debt Bubble, the American economy is about to take The Big Swim, a lot like it did back in the 1930s. If this does happen, what sort of businesses will be safe? Do you know what sorts of businesses bucked the down-trend in the 1930s? Thanks, – Chester

JWR Replies: According to statistics published some 20 years ago by Dr.Ravi Batra, the safest businesses and industries during the worst years of the Great Depression (1929-1933) were:

Repair shops
Educational services (A lot of young men that couldn’t find work borrowed money to go to trade schools and college.)
Healthcare services
Bicycle shops
Bus transportation
Gasoline service stations
Second hand stores
Legal services
Drug or proprietary stores

To bring that list up to date, I would speculatively add a few more sectors and business that are likely to do well in the event of another major depression:
Home security/locksmithing (since a higher crime rate is inevitable in bad economic times.)
Entertainment/diversions (such as DVD rentals)
Truck farming/large scale vegetable gardening (since just 2% of the population now feeds the other 98%–whereas back in the 1930s the US was still a predominantly agrarian society)
Export consumer goods (since the US Dollar is likely to continue to slip versus most other currencies)

Odds ‘n Sods:

By way of SHTF Daily: Economist eyes home value dive: Others skeptical of 50 percent decline

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Any readers looking for knives or Leatherman tools should be sure to check out Knife Off. They have a big inventory–including brand names like Cold Steel and Kershaw–at very competitive prices. For localities where they are legal (and in compliance with Federal law), Knife Off also offers Smith and Wesson brand automatic knives (from their new “Extreme Ops” line) at the best prices I’ve ever seen. (Consult your state and local laws before ordering.)

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Jason in north Idaho suggested a British web site that shows some creative camper conversions for Unimogs.

Note from JWR:

Do you have a favorite quote? (Perhaps one related to preparedness, the survival mindset, self-defense, individual liberty, charity, or an important lesson from history.) If so, e-mail it to me, and if it isn’t one that has been posted here before then I’ll post it as a SurvivalBlog Quote of the Day. Thanks!

Letter Re: The Importance of Stocking Up on Batteries

James:
I have been corresponding with an infantry soldier (E-6 [pay grade]) in Iraq named Ray that I met through AnySoldier.com. BTW, thanks for running that free ad for them on SurvivalBlog. All those “forgotten” soldiers need our real support–not just a “Support Our Troops” yellow ribbon magnet on the backs of our cars. In the last 8 or 9 months I have sent more than 30 “care packages” in [Priority Mail] Flat Rate boxes to [AnySoldier.com addressees in] Iraq and Afghanistan.

In our e-mails, one of the things that Ray mentioned a couple of times really impressed me: It is that one of the crucial logistics for modern armies is spare batteries. He described how they go through hundreds of them, for radios, tactical flashlights, sensors, laser target illuminators and designators, and night vision gear/thermal sights. As I look forward to potential hard times in this country, I think that we should learn a lesson from the Iraq experience: never run out of batteries.

So I’ve resolved to never let my family run out of batteries, even if the “problem” lasts for a decade. I took your advice and got a small [5 watt] solar [photovoltaic] panel from Northern Tool & Equipment which I’ve already rigged to charge batteries, using an “automobile” (12 volt DC) charging tray. (It looks like a regular home charger, but it has a 12 volt [input power] cable with a cig[arette] lighter plug.) This gives me straight DC-to-DC charging, without an energy hogging inverter in the middle of the equation. Thanks also for making that suggestion! For my retreat , I’m planning to buy one of the 8 watt panels from Safecastle, in a similar battery charging arrangement. That way I’ll have a separate charging system, even if I have to E&E on foot and leave my 5 watt battery charging panel at home. I’ve also stocked up very heavily on nickel [metal] hydride [NiMH] batteries.of various and sundry sizes, plus some of the older nickel cadmium [NiCd] batteries, and some Duracells. My question is: What more should I do, and what is the best way to store all of the batteries that I’m acquiring? Thanks for all that you provide for free in SurvivalBlog. You should make the 10 Cent Challenge mandatory. Maybe with a password for most of what is on your site that only paid subscribers would have. You are way too generous. Giving it all away is no way to make a living. With Kind Regards – Paul G.

JWR Replies: Thank you very much for raising this important issue. You are absolutely right. Without a reliable long term supply of batteries we will lose some of our best tactical advantages for retreat security: radio communication, electronic intrusion detection systems, and night vision goggles/sights. Think about it: The only way that a small group can effectively defend a rural retreat is with these technological advantages. Without batteries, we would soon be back to 19th Century technology and tactics. Since modern tactical electronics are “force multipliers”, the lack of them would reduce the effectiveness of our defensive measures. Making up for that loss would necessitate having a lot more manpower. And more manpower means more retreat floor space and more food. That additional food means more land under cultivation, and more land under cultivation and means a larger perimeter to defend, and so forth. You can see where this logic leads: Instead of owning a little two family 20 acre low profile retreat, you’d need 10 to 12 armed and trained adults and perhaps 40 to 100 acres, depending on rainfall and soil fertility. Being the local Lord of the Manor is not conducive to keeping a low profile!

You are right that it is wise to stock up on batteries. Try to get rechargeable batteries for as many devices as possible. In fact, compatibility with rechargeables (versus expendable “throw away” batteries) should be a key determining factor when selecting any electrical or electronic equipment. My favorite source for batteries via mail order is All-Battery.com. (One of our affiliate advertisers.) They have great prices and a huge selection.

If space permits, you should store all of your small batteries in a sealed bag (to prevent condensation) in the back of your refrigerator. This will extend their useful life.

Five Letters Re: New Zealand–Gun Laws and Immigration

Hello JWR,
I am a reader of your blog, and a New Zealand Citizen and firearms licence holder. I was pleasantly surprised to see your post [from Todd Savage] on New Zealand , and thought I could offer some more information.

MSSAs (Military Style Semi-automatics) are acceptable, but only with the E endorsement, as you stated. This endorsement costs NZ$200 and means more government involvement. What qualifies as an MSSA weapon may be quite different to what Americans are familiar with; especially as there are no magazine capacity limits. The distinction is based mostly on cosmetic features (like a bayonet lug or pistol grip) and often people can tack on a piece of metal to enclose a pistol grip and turn it into a class A firearm, which needs no endorsement.

In other words, you could shoot a semi-auto, with as large a magazine as you wish, from an enclosed pistol grip through a suppressor, all with just a basic firearms licence. Not bad at all, in that regard. Any person over 18 can own an air gun with no licence.

The A class licence requires you to go into the police station, pass a test on the New Zealand Arms Code, fill out an application form including reason for application and have a photo and details taken. This is loaded onto the national police database, so if you are stopped and queried by the police they will be aware of your ownership status. The police also visit your house, interview references and check your storage provisions. Licences last for 10 years and cost NZ $124.

One item from your post is incorrect; suppressors are not E class devices, anyone with a basic firearms licence can purchase them. Also for A class firearms, storage requirements are minimal. I screwed a thin sheet-metal locker to a wall in my household and attached a padlock, which was deemed sufficient storage for a small number of A class firearms. Gun stores also sell very inexpensive gun racks, which need just a padlock to comply with storage laws.

We’re not quite the land of freedom you might think, [the] Nanny state is alive and well here. You cannot carry any weapons for self defence (including firearms, pepper spray, Tasers or knives) and the police have a track record of prosecuting individuals who injure or kill others in legitimate self defence. Using firearms for self defence is severely frowned upon and if you give self defence as a reason for applying for your licence it will be denied (see below an excerpt from the Arms Code on self defence). Pistols are extremely difficult to own and shoot legally, and can only be used and carried at approved pistol ranges, without exception. Automatic weapons are illegal, with the exception of some specialist endorsements (such as collector), under which you may not fire them.

Self defence aside, New Zealand does have relatively sensible firearms laws that let you do many activities easily and legally. Feel free to come over! (Remember to get a “Permit to Import” first).

I hope this information is useful to you and your readers. Best Wishes, Craig D.

 

Jim:

While things may have changes since my recent scouting mission to New Zealand. At that time, firearms laws were definitely heading the wrong way. Confiscations seemed an unfortunate eventuality. It was the main reason I nixed New Zealand as an ex-pat location. – SF in Hawaii

Jim:

I hope you hear from someone who has actually tried to get an “E” Endorsement and/or import MSSAs into New Zealand because I would seriously doubt getting either
accomplished [by an ex-pat] would be easy. The firearm prices listed on the New Zealand gun store web site reflect amounts worse than what America experienced 1994-2004 and
this would represent a severe supply restriction.
New Zealand is also far from immune when it comes to the globalist march to ban civilian possession of small arms. See this site, and this site.

So tread carefully when it comes to recommending New Zealand as a place for freedom-loving Americans to tuck tail and retreat to when the going gets tough here. As an OIF veteran the last thing I’d want to see are honest believers in the original US Constitution abandoning the ship because a few waves came over the deck during
a storm! The phrase “sunshine patriot” would begin to come to mind.
Thanks and +1 on your work with SurvivalBlog, – Chris S.

 

Todd:
Your piece on New Zealand needs to be augmented with a few key points.
New Zealand is a very left-leaning and liberal country, far more like Scandinavia than the US or Canada. If your views go towards the right or libertarian, you would probably be uncomfortable.
Gun controls are very restrictive by US standards. Most of the police are unarmed at all times. [JWR Adds: That is only true in terms of guns visible to the public. What is carried in the car boots (called “trunks” in the US) of senior officers is a different matter.] Handguns are quite rare. However, the murder rate in NZ, while growing, is only about 1/7 of that in the US on a per-capita basis.

An essential question to consider is whether a prospective immigrant will, in fact, be granted a visa to settle in NZ. New Zealand has among the most restrictive immigration policies in the world. New Zealand seeks immigrants who are young and college educated, healthy, with a good employment record, and clean police record. Persons 56 years old or older will not be granted permanent residency, though a temporary work permit may be possible. Qualifications are rated on a points system, and high scorers may (or may not) be invited to apply for residency.
Application is intrusive, and requires a full medical exam, an FBI background check, documentation of financial resources, and checks of references on education and employment. Information is available at this site.- Rick S.

 

Hi James,
A couple of minor corrections [to Todd’s post] regarding firearms in New Zealand: E category guns are not readily imported into the country which is why the prices are so high. To import your E category firearms you will first have to buy a “hand in” E category that is already in NZ like an SKS, then get an import permit. As an alternative, if you get a C cat (collectors) license endorsement you may be able import your collection without a “hand in” gun, but C cat weapons are not to be fired although you might be able to change your C cat to an E cat at some future time. Importing pistols (B cat) and PC rifles and shotguns (A cat) are no problem assuming you have the proper license endorsements.

Suppressors are covered by the basic A cat license, not E cat which is why they are so prevalent and inexpensive.

For detailed information on shooting sports you may want to try the IMAS web site http://www.imas.co.nz where most questions about firearms in NZ will be answered. NZ is a wonderful place and I would encourage firearms enthusiast from all over the world to immigrate here and vote.

Regards, – Bert

Odds ‘n Sods:

From The New York Times: Few Expect a Panacea in a Rate Cut by the Fed

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The folks at Guardians of Jericho are gearing up for the Jericho Convention (“Jerichon”) in Oakley, Kansas the weekend of September 14th to 16th. I’d like to be there but I have a commitment for some on-site consulting that weekend. If you attend, be sure to look for folks wearing SurvivalBlog T-Shirts. I’ve heard that there will be at least a half a dozen blog readers there, including frequent SurvivalBlog contributor Rourke.

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RBS mentioned this article in Yahoo! News: Los Angeles in 1,000-year Earthquake Lull

Note from JWR:

The high bid is now at $235 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a for a new-in-the-box Hydro Photon UV Light SteriPen Water Sterilization System with solar charger and pre-filter, kindly donated by Safecastle, one of our most loyal advertisers. This very popular water sterilizer product package normally sells for $225, plus postage. See the details on the SteriPen and solar charger here. As a bonus for this auction, I’m also including three autographed books: Rawles on Retreats and Relocation, SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog – Volume 1 and my novel: “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. (Together, these books have a retail value of $82, and hence the full auction lot has a combined value of $307.) The auction ends on September 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Will Things Get a Bad as Described in “Patriots”?

James:
I have been a SurvivalBlog reader for nearly a year. It is my favorite blog, by far. I got a [voluntary] 10 Cent Challenge subscription after about the first month (and I’m about to renew). But it wasn’t until last month that I got around to purchasing a copy of your novel [“Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”]. I had been avoiding it because I’m not the sort that reads novels. They are mostly a waste of time. But I thought that I’d make an exception and get yours, since it had such a high rating on Amazon. It wasn’t until I started reading it that I realized what the fuss was all about. I absolutely devoured your novel. I read it all in a 12 hour stretch. (Luckily, I started it on a Saturday morning, or else I would have been up reading all night.) It may sound like a old cliche, but I just could not put it down. Then I re-read parts of it on Sunday, and highlighted some sections with my Accent marker, and started taking notes. Since then, I’ve re-read the entire book twice.

All that say is Wow! Now I’m planning to take advantage of your sale and get two six packs of autographed books, for Christmas gifts for my family (including my head-thrust-firmly-in-sand uncle) and a few friends at work and at church. Thank you for writing your novel, and all that you do in sharing your preparedness knowledge on the SurvivalBlog.

That said, now for my question: Do really expect things to get as bad as you described in Patriots? I hope not, because if it happens that way, then I’m still quite under-prepared. Sincerely, – Thompson

JWR Replies: Thanks for your kind comments on SurvivalBlog and my novel.

In answer to your question: No, I don’t expect things to get as bad as I described in “Patriots”. It could happen. But frankly, the odds are that it won’t be nearly so severe. I made the scenario in the novel a near “worst case” in order to make it more interesting reading, and as an opportunity to show the need for planning and preparedness in a variety of areas such as first aid, food storage, faith, self-defense, communications, et cetera. The Deep Drama was essentially an excuse to write about a lot of different tactics and technologies.And it does make for an exciting read.

The bottom line: If you prepare for the worst, you’ll be able to take on any lesser challenges with relative ease, and have plenty of extra logistics to dispense charitably.

Letter Re: A Commercial Fueling Network (CFN) Card Lock Account as a Preparedness Measure

Mr. Rawles, I have been considering sending you this note on fuel, so I’ll tag on now. I work for a very large pipeline/oil company and I am in management. My family & I have been in this business for nearly 30 years. I run diesel pickups and use a CFN card as well. The real point I want to share is that when we may no longer get gasoline or diesel fuel, there are hundreds of thousands of diesel vehicles around in which fuel can be “obtained” with a hose or pump [in the cited absolute worst case situation.] First, think of how many over the road trucks there are in North America. They are all run on diesel fuel. Perhaps more important, think of the number of backhoes, excavators (we call them track hoes), bulldozers, various other earthmoving and construction equipment, cement trucks, delivery vans. The list is pretty long. Farm tractors in the US– and how many you see parked on the edge of a field pulling a fuel tank. In the agriculture belt of the Midwest , this is a common sight. If you’re in oil producing states, you have work over rigs, drilling rigs, and an entire network of support vehicles, all which keep large on-site storage of diesel fuel to operate. Look at the US military and the diesel powered vehicles they use. Here’s another thought; it is difficult to siphon Gasoline out of a modern car today, due to the filler cap restrictions. Most diesel powered vehicles have a large, open filler cap.
To go along with that, most companies that are in this sort of business have bulk diesel fuel storage at their yard(s). I work at a CI/KR facility, (the DHS acronym for Critical Infrastructure/Key Resources as outlined by the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) where these businesses and facilities have large backup generators utilizing diesel fuel. A bonus is that the fuel is treated for long term storage and usually filtered on discharge from the storage tank.
I think it is also important to figure out your town or city’s supply chain for fuel. A tremendous number of refineries are still located on the Gulf Coast/Mississippi River and the refined products are transported by pipeline across the U.S. to central terminals. From there, it is transported out by your local jobber to each gas station. Remember, this is still free enterprise with private companies at the steering wheel, however, under NIPP, this could all change. The shutdown of refineries starting in the late 1980s only tightens the noose, so to speak. I find in my travel around the Southwest U.S. interacting with law enforcement and private citizens, not many people really know a thing about our crude oil/refining/fuel infrastructure and all of the processes that it takes to get to the gas pump. We are, and will continue to be, in a very delicate energy balance–particularly fuel. Simply look at Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Rita, and the ice storms in early 2007. People need to be educated.

I could go on and more in-depth about our nation’s infrastructure, but I think that is a separate e-mail. The bottom line is; I think I personally will have a better chance of obtaining diesel fuel for myself, than gasoline. Most folks will be sitting in long lines at gas stations and convenience stores waiting on gasoline. Wonderful site you have! – LetterJRanch, in Texas

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Because Roman civilization perished through barbarian invasions, we are perhaps too much inclined to think that this is the only way a civilization can die. But if the lights that guide us [morally guided public institutions] ever go out, they will fade little by little, as if of their own accord.” – Alexis de Tocqueville

Note from JWR:

The first post today is from our newest foreign correspondent: “SurvivalistSam” a 15 year old home-schooler living on New Zealand’s South Island.

The Basics of New Zealand’s Firearm Laws, by SurvivalistSam

New Zealand firearms laws seem rather restrictive when compared to those in the USA but they are generally liberal when compared to Australia’s.
In New Zealand one can own normal firearms such as shotguns and rifles with a normal A class Firearms Licence but for pistols one must acquire a “B” endorsement to that licence.
Even then one must join a pistol club and partake in shooting events at least 12 times a year.
You must also never fire a pistol in any area that is not an approved range and you must store it in an appropriate safe that has been approved by the New Zealand police.

Normal bolt action, lever action, pump action and semi automatic rifles can be purchased by a person over the age of 16 with a regular A class firearms licence.
However in the case of semi autos, one is only allowed to have a magazine capacity of 7 or less for centerfire rifles and and magazine capacity of 15 or less for .22 rifles.
There is, however, no limit on the amount of magazines one can own nor is there any age limit or licence required to purchase magazine(meaning anyone of any age can buy magazines).
There is no magazine capacity limit for bolt, lever or pump action rifles.

If one wants to own a semi auto rifle/shotgun with any of the following features then they must obtain a MSSA (Military Style Semi Automatic) licence:

.Folding or telescopic butt
.Magazine of more than 15 cartridges for .22 rimfire
.Magazine of more than 7 cartridges for others
.Bayonet lug
.Free standing military style pistol grip
.Flash suppressor

To obtain a MSSA licence one must be over the age of 18 and must pass rigorous tests/evaluations conducted by the New Zealand Police.
Also, if you do get a MSSA licence then you must have extremely good safes for all MSSA firearms you purchase.

Basically all shotguns can be purchased with an A class licence except those with MSSA characteristics.

All info for this article has been sourced from The New Zealand Arms Code. – SurvivalistSam