Letter Re: Veterinary Antibiotics

All this discussion of antibiotic nephrotoxicity on a “non-medical” forum reminds me of just why modern medical education is so onerous, including (in the U.S.) four hard years of school — two mostly classroom, two mostly clinical — followed by many more years of clinical residency training. During such training, one encounters lots of side effects of the various highly potent chemical agents known as pharmaceuticals. Watching out for the kidneys is one reason hospitalized patients have so much blood drawn over and over again (to monitor BUN [blood urea nitrogen] and creatinine, markers for renal function).

I guess the best TEOTWAWKI preparation would be to stockpile antibiotics and an experienced practitioner to administer them, preferably a board-certified infectious disease specialist. Unfortunately the latter are not available via mail order! Lacking such experienced members in your family or mutual assistance group, one is advised to be rather cautious in dosing — i.e. respect those meds — they can cure but they can also kill. In short, please “don’t try this at home” unless you absolutely have to.

On the specific subject of tetracyclines, the relevant paragraph in “the” standard textbook, Mandell’s Principles and Practice of Infectious Diseases (4th ed.) begins “The tetracyclines aggravate pre-existing renal failure by inhibiting protein synthesis, which increases the azotemia from amino acid metabolism…” The paragraph concludes with rather brief mention of toxicity in expired tetracyclines due to the outdated manufacturing issues [i.e. binders that are no longer used], but says “It is unlikely this complication will recur.”

The best reference to this issue I can readily find on-line (as opposed to textbooks) is as follows — pay attention to the years cited:

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INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMME ON CHEMICAL SAFETY — ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH CRITERIA 119 —
PRINCIPLES AMD METHODS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF NEPHROTOXICITY ASSOCIATED WITH EXPOSURE TO CHEMICALS

Tetracyclines
The nephrotoxicity of tetracycline incited considerable interest in the early 1960s, shortly after its introduction. People, particularly children, developed a reversible proximal tubular dysfunction after receiving outdated drugs. The nephrotoxicity was found to be due to a degradation product, anhydro-4-epitetracycline. The problem has disappeared with the substitution of citric acid for lactose as a vehicle (Curtis, 1979).

Other rare effects of tetracycline that have been reported are impairment of renal-concentrating ability by demethyl-chlorotetracycline and occurrences of acute interstitial nephritis after minocycline treatment. More important to current usage is the awareness that the serum half-life of the two most commonly used drugs, tetracycline and oxytetracycline, is greatly prolonged in renal failure, and that the anti-anabolic effect of the tetracyclines, which inhibit the incorporation of amino acids into protein, may further contribute to negative nitrogen balance and uraemia by raising blood urea nitrogen (Curtis, 1979).
Reference cited : CURTIS, J.R. (1979) Drug-induced renal disease. Drugs, 18: 377-391.

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One last comment: A useful aphorism that I was taught in medical school is that “any drug can cause any side effect in any patient at any time (…but some are more likely than others).”
– A Public Health Physician

Odds ‘n Sods:

The price action in the precious metals markets has been uneven for the past couple of months. It seems to be a market looking for a sense of direction. Just as with the base metals, there is of course a habitual tendency for the precious metals to follow the price of crude oil. But as previously mentioned, that linkage is weakening. Even though oil is off more than 25% from its highs of a few months ago (presently it is down in the low $50 range, per barrel), the metal prices have not followed. They’ve weakened a bit, but stayed in a fairly consistent range. With all of the international tensions–particularly regarding Iran–why hasn’t the the precious metals bull resumed his charge? I’m surprised that this hasn’t happened. Perhaps the sagging oil prices have made the metals traders cautious. All of this aside, I remain confident about gold and even more confident about silver as investments in the long term, since the inevitable long term direction of the dollar is downward. Whether in inflationary or deflationary times, the precious metals are a decent hedge. But it is in times of mass inflation that they really shine.With the Democrats now in control of congress, unbridled spending seems likely, and both higher taxes and and inflation will follow. I recommend that you continue to grow your physical silver holdings each time that there is a sharp price dip in the spot silver market. (For example the recent dip to down near $12 per ounce was a good time to buy. I hope that you took heed when I mentioned that dip )

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There are just 14 days left in the big “Container load sale” at Survival Enterprises. Several items have sold out. These are going fast! All of the storage food items are “first come – first served.” The prices are less than half of retail.

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Personal Savings in U.S. Drop to Lowest Rate Since 1933–the Depth of the Great Depression. Gee, decades of chronic inflation wouldn’t have anything to do with that, would it?

Jim’s Quote of the Day

"It is not the function of the government to keep the citizen from falling into error; it is the function of the citizen to keep the government from falling into error." – U.S. Supreme Court Justice Robert H. Jackson

Note from JWR:

Congratulations to JLM, the winner of Round 8 of the SurvivalBlog writing contest. He has won a four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. JLM wrote the article “Gardens of the Future”, which was posted on January 26th. Additionally, honorable mention awards go to S.N. for his article “Horse Power, the Real McCoy” (posted January 12th) and to John in Central New York State for his article “Which Vehicle Will Work? Choices For Post -TEOTWAWKI Transport” (posted December 25th.) These two gents will each receive a complimentary autographed copy of the new expanded edition of my novel “Patriots”: Surviving The Coming Collapse. To the prize winners: Please e-mail me your snail mail addresses.

Round 9 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. begins today. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $1,600.) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing.If you want a chance to win the contest, start writing and e-mail us your article. Round 9 will end on March 31st. Remember that the articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Letter Re: Rural Retreat Matchmaking for Big City Dwellers

Dear Jim:
Regarding retreats for big city dwellers, the more you read and think, the clearer it becomes:
1. Your retreat from the big city needs to be more than a distance than is convenient to travel on a weekly basis.
2. You really need someone there full time for security and maintenance. [JWR Adds: And to establish/develop gardens, fruit trees, nut trees, and livestock for self-sufficiency.]
3. One family (unless a humongous family by modern standards) is not enough folks to have a diversity of skills, keep good perimeter security, or defend in a TSHTF situation.
4. [Affording both] a rural retreat and a city home is an expensive proposition.
The obvious solution is for like-minded families to band together to share costs and work. But an even better solution would be to come to an arrangement with a rancher or farmer who is survival savvy, but land rich and cash poor. (Or that needs more folks on board in a crisis).
The hard parts are:
1. How to make the connection between urban and rural dwellers in the first place, and
2. Then of course how to have a “let’s date before we sign contracts to get married” period to build trust and teamwork, and to make sure that there is enough compatibility and common ground.
Any ideas / advice ?
Have looked at the site you recommended where survivalists could connect, but it seemed most postings were old. Perhaps there is an opportunity here for SurvivalBlog to be of service doing classified ads or “match-making” for a fee? Regards, – OSOM

JWR Replies: For liability reasons, I refrain from posting any matchmaking “classifieds” –or anything similar. (You’ve probably read about the $4.3 million dollar settlement paid by Robert K. Brown, very nearly bankrupting Soldier of Fortune magazine.) Sorry, but I can’t afford to roll those dice. I still recommend The Survivalist Contacts Page, which is kindly sponsored and hosted by SurvivalistBooks.com. So far as I know, they are still accepting new contacts posts. If you utilize this free service, be sure to patronize their on-line book store. (They have a wide assortment of preparedness and self-sufficiency books, at competitive prices.)

Letter Re: Heirloom / Open Pollinated Seeds

Sir:
Your recent posts on seed varieties sparked some thoughts on my recent reading. We’re going to find fellowship and learning opportunities within the “Authentic Agriculture” movement. Since living at the retreat is ideal, perhaps “Authentic Agriculture” is how to make it happen.
About halfway down the page in this link the farmer describes breeding a plot of open pollinated corn in order to maximum the desirable expressed phenotypes for his soils and micro-climate. By hand selecting seed over generations he is increasing his protein content for his animals. A 3,000 acre Farmerus maximus miserabli just can’t compete with a homesteader clipping open his seed corn samples to check on starch-to-endosperm ratios.
Somewhere else I read recently (cannot find the link) that by saving seed and selecting characteristics, a homesteader was able to increase corn yield 10% over ten generations. It’s not just the right thing to do; there’s profit in using heirloom and open pollinated varietals. In His Service, – BH

Letter Re: Urban Freeway Traffic Gridlock in a Disaster

James;
As Bob B. from the Seattle area stated, the gridlock of freeways is a huge issue, especially in Seattle. I had the unfortunate experience of being on the 50th floor of a large building in Seattle during the earthquake of 2000, and again on Sept. 11th, 2001. I was more prepared for the latter. in the aftermath of the earthquake, I became acutely aware of the fact that Seattle is an island: bridges to get in and out of the city that cross both Lake Washington, and Lake Union. And while there, the entire freeway system is elevated. Not a place to be stuck! Especially considering it’s such a liberal city, full of sheeple.
After that [first] experience, I put to together an emergency bag, and kept it with me at all times when traveling to, from, or in the city (now everywhere.) It consists of my black Gortex shell coat. 60 folded one dollar bills, a Grundig self-powered (hand crank) radio, energy bars, first aid kit (with extra prescription drugs, and pain killers) LED head lamp, water bottle, a hard plastic folded street map of the city and surrounding area, my cell phone (always charged to full) and my favorite caliber Glock in a comfy suede in-the-pants holster, two extra [Glock] magazines in my bag, (each having a situation specific load). Given, it’s not a lot, but if I were to become trapped on “The Island” (Seattle) for most reasons–minus NBC situations–I am confident that I will survive, or escape, with little to no trouble. If nothing else, I have a piece of mind: the Positive Mental Attitude (PMA) that my basketball coach instilled in me all those years ago. And with that, and God, I can do anything legal or necessary. – John Denver’s Last Fan

Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader Norman in England mentioned this piece in The Times of London; Thousands to Test Flu Emergency Response. Norman’s comments: “If this thing does mutate and get world wide then it will be very difficult if not impossible for society to hold together as it is now. What will come from this exercise will be bulls**t. I’ll try to keep you posted but I expect most of it to be kept under wraps. The systems that hold our society together have very little fault tolerance and it will not take much to bring society down. Once we are on the conveyor belt of collapse there will be nothing to stop total collapse. We must think seriously of how any who survive this will live without our current systems which includes electric power. As I have stated before how are we going to replace those broken or worn out part of generators, motors, pumps etc. How are we going to be able to forge the metal for those parts? What about such things resistors, transistors, etc. We who call ourselves ‘survivalists’ must use what little time we have left to plan for this eventuality. Not just with stocks of food and equipment but by planning to revert to a standard of living where if we can not make an item ourselves, or at least within a small community, we will have to do without.”

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Fred the Valmet-meister wrote to tell us about this web site in England on collecting anti-tank rifles. Fred calls it “a really cool web site for reading on a winter’s day:”

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A web search yielded this interesting product web page: LINE-X – Blast-Proof, Anti-Terror Paint Saves Building in New Mexico Explosion Tests.

Note from JWR:

For the entire month of February, I’m having a special “support our troops” sale on copies of the new expanded 33 chapter edition my novel “Patriots”. If you place an order directly with me, and you have us mail it to an APO or FPO address, then the price is just $12 per copy, plus $3 postage. (That is $10.99 off of the cover price–right near my wholesale cost.)

OBTW, speaking of supporting our troops, be sure to visit the AnySoldier.com web site, and “do your bit.” Some young enlisted troops that are deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan get no mail from home, so anything that you can send them–even just a postcard–is appreciated.

I now offer a couple of additional payment options for book orders: both AlertPay and GearPay. (I prefer these because they don’t share PayPal’s anti-gun political agenda.) In my experience, AlertPay has a frustratingly labyrinthine account set-up procedure, but GearPay seems much quicker and easier to set up.
Our AlertPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our GearPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our PayPal address is: rawles@earthlink.net

Home Security–The “Lock Bumping” Threat

There is currently a lot of buzz on the Internet about the emerging threat of “lock bumping.” This is an old technique used by burglars that can defeat up to 80% of typical household dead-bolt locks. It is catching on with a whole new generation of burglars in the U.S., Canada, and in Europe. (Using an easily obtained specially cut generic “bump” key and a small mallet.) This video clip from Holland (with English subtitles) shows the technique. And here is another video, from here in the States. My advice is to upgrade the locks on your exterior doors with top quality locks made by Medeco or Schlage Primus. These have special cylinders that are engaged by “double cut” or “side-milled” keys. These bump-resistant and pick-resistant locksets cost about $150 each.

Regardless of the locks that you use, it is essential that you never let your keys out of your personal possession, since a large number of burglaries are accomplished by means of illicitly copied keys. Never give a parking valet your entire ring of keys. Never lend your house key to a tradesman. (You should always be there personally to supervise work in your home, regardless.) If you hire a maid, a cleaning service, or a nanny that must have a house key, then do a thorough background check on that individual. And if you have the slightest suspicion that your key might have been compromised, then have your door locks re-keyed immediately. OBTW, the bump technique can also defeat most padlocks. But fear not–ultra high security padlocks with double cut keys are also available. (For example, the $180+ Sargent & Greenleaf #833 or the not quite so expensive Medeco “C” and “E” series padlocks.) I should also mention that the real bargain on the market is the U.S. Army surplus arms room padlock (made by Sargent & Greenleaf), often available via eBay, from Coleman’s Surplus, that typically sell for around $60.

Letter Re: More Evidence of Peak Oil Decline–Preparing for Much Higher Gasoline Prices

Dear Jim and Family,
Bad news from the largest oil field in Mexico. The Canterell field, formerly reported to decline at 2% last August, 6% in October, and 11% in December has been rated at 25% today. Oil production has dropped from 1.99 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.

This is a very bad thing. Most of that oil goes to the USA via NAFTA treaties. There are no fields to replace it, and since Mexico has 51% leftist leanings, no oil company will risk investing there (Pemex was formed from seized foreign oil investments, most of which were from the USA). Losing half a million barrels of non-Middle Eastern supply makes us more susceptible to interruptions from hostile nations like Iran and Venezuela, and unstable nations like Nigeria.

This also has secondary effects. Most of the money in Mexico comes from oil wealth. Without the oil, Mexico, the nation with one of the highest birth rates in the world, will be needing to find other sources of income for their 1 million young men turning 18 each year. Without the oil wealth to pay for social services, the collapse there will either cause them to come to the USA seeking jobs (just as the USA is entering a recession due to energy costs and the collapse of the housing bubble), or further fuel revolution in Mexico. Mexico is already unstable since the race for president and ruling party was hotly contended and claims of voting fraud rang very loudly, particularly in the South where leftists openly battle with the Federales.

Let’s assume that any internal issues in Mexico stay there, and that conditions in the USA don’t cause a higher number of illegal immigrant labor. Even without that, losing 1/2 million barrels per day in 6 months, and possibly another half million by July of this year is going to hurt the USA quite a bit. That’s an Iraq worth of oil. If things get more messed up in Mexico, the oil may stop flowing temporarily, thus removing 1.5 million barrels per day from the market and driving the price up until demand for those barrels is removed. This generally means the third world is bid off the market. It also means that you may see $6/gal gasoline, maybe later this year. Who knows? It’s too uncertain to invest in crude oil futures.

The thing about predicting gasoline prices is we know the price will rise, but we don’t know when, or if $6 will be just a few days before it races past that number for a higher price. Supply and demand rule, and if you paid the same price per volume for gasoline that you do for beer, you’d be looking at around $32/gal. And beer won’t push you two dozen miles surrounded by 3,000 pounds of steel, rubber, and plastic. Gasoline is more useful, so will inevitably cost a lot more, eventually to cost what its actually worth for the work it can do. This will leave a lot of cars empty of fuel, sitting in your driveway rusting forlornly with only 30 more payments. My advice is to start offloading your excess vehicles sooner rather than later, and if it comes to a choice of going into debt for a hybrid and someday tossing the guzzler for scrap metal: the math says the guzzler is a better deal. The price of fuel will rise faster than the hybrids can accommodate and debt for a vehicle will make less and less sense when unemployment follows energy scarcity and transportation problems. If you must maintain your personal travel freedom, there’s always motorcycles, which get 60 mpg. If you insist on your car and can live with the loss of freedom, you can carpool which effectively doubles or quadruples your fuel efficiency (if you carry three passengers). It’s not very macho and it’s painful to your freedom, but it’s better to have a job than not. And some mobility is better than none. We’re all going to have to get used to much more limited mobility in the next few years.

And I shudder in anticipation of “travel papers” and other documents limiting travel in the name of fuel efficiency, homeland security, or whatever other excuse they choose. Sincerely, – InyoKern
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JWR Replies: Reading through the SurvivalBlog Retreat Owner Profiles, you will notice that nearly every one of them has a “economy runabout” car listed. I think that is a wise approach. Also, don’t overlook mountain bicycles with panniers and/or light cargo trailers, the new generation utility trike-bikes with cargo platforms and/or cargo trailers, and of course horses. These alternatives may not be speedy or convenient, but they require no gasoline.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Unintended consequences: Rise in ethanol demand creates a tortilla crisis.

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S.H. mention an interesting list of 63 field/barracks items posted at Bouhammer’s Afghanistan “List of gear for A-stan.” S.H. notes: “This may be of interest to those reviewing their G.O.O.D. or Bug-Out bags. It is very enlightening on what our troops use/need in a modern desert war environment.”

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There are just 16 days left in the big “Container load sale” at Survival Enterprises. Looking at their running inventories posted on the web page, I can see that several items have sold out. Don’t dawdle on this one, folks! All of the storage food items are “first come – first served.” As previously mentioned, their prices are less than half of retail.

Jim’s Quote of the Day

“You can kid yourself and say I’m only going along because they have all the guns, but day by day, year by year, your integrity erodes. Finally, you become like the tyrants: just one more liar.” – Franklin Sanders

Note from JWR:

I’m planning on assembling a “Best of the Blog” hardcopy book in the next few weeks. The prospect of doing this manually is not appealing. Do any of you folks know of an existing “slurp” or “blog to book” software tool that is compatible with Movable Type that will allow me to automagically build RTF or MS-Word files from my blog posts? (My searches thusfar have been unsuccessful.) Thanks!