Note from JWR:

I begin today’s blog entries writing on a theme that is familiar to both readers of SurvivalBlog and readers of my novel “Patriots”, charity.

Charity in Disaster Situations–Insuring the Cohesion of the “We”

At the risk for sounding preachy, I’d like to re-emphasize the importance of storing extra logistics so that you can be charitable when disaster strikes. Charity is Biblically supported, and makes common sense. (I strongly advise it, regardless of your religious beliefs.) When the Schumer Hits the Fan (SHTF), you will want neighbors that you can count on, not people that you fear or distrust. By dispensing copious charity to your neighbors that did not have the same foresight that you did, you will solidify them as strong allies instead of envious potential enemies. In describing communities, psychologists and sociologists often talk in terms of the “we/they paradigm”. Typically, this is used in a negative connotation, such as when they describe racism. (And rightfully so–I loathe racism.) But I can see something positive in building an appropriate “we/they” distinction during a societal collapse–the distinction between your local community and predatory outsiders. Just ask anyone that has ever lived “inside the wire” at a Forward Operating Base (FOB) in Iraq. Those soldiers will tell you that they felt a strong cohesive bond, and were absolutely determined to repel anyone that attempted to attack their FOB. Their steadfast resolve can be summed up with the words: “They are not getting through the wire. Period.” Dispensing charity helps build a cohesive “we” and draws into sharp contrast the “they.” (In my view of the near future, the “they” will likely be roving bands of criminal looters. Imagine a situation like in the movie The Road Warrior, and you are inside the perimeter at the refinery. Can you see the appropriate “we/they”?)

By logical extension, you can dispense significant charity only if you have it to give. Clearly, you must stock up above and beyond your own family’s needs. So, for example, if you calculate that you need 300 pounds of wheat for your family, don’t buy just 300 pounds. Instead, buy 600, 900, or even 1,200 pounds. That might sound expensive, but presently you can buy 50 pound sacks of hard red winter wheat for around $7 to $8 each. About 45 pounds of wheat will fit in a plastic 6 gallon food grade bucket that costs just over $2. Or even if you pay more to buy wheat that already packaged for long term storage in buckets (from a vendor like Walton Feed), a 45 pound bucket of wheat still costs just $17.15. Beans and rice are similarly priced. Consider that extra food as a key to building a “sense of community.” Even for even those of you that are non-religious, dispensing charity will be part of your “we/they paradigm” insurance. If purchased in bulk quantities, it is also cheap insurance. Don’t neglect buying your family that insurance! OBTW, speaking of wheat, the threat of the wheat “super-blight” is looming. This makes it urgent for families to stock up.

Where is the Biblical support for charity? It can be seen throughout the Old and New Testaments. Remember the Bible’s guidance about leaving unharvested rows of crops, to benefit “gleaners“? For example, see Leviticus 23:22: “And when ye reap the harvest of your land, thou shalt not make clean riddance of the corners of thy field when thou reapest, neither shalt thou gather any gleaning of thy harvest: thou shalt leave them unto the poor, and to the stranger: I am the LORD your God.” (KJV)

The Old Testament law regarding charity can be found in Deuteronomy Chapter 15, verses 7-11 (KJV):

15:7 If there be among you a poor man of one of thy brethren within any of thy gates in thy land which the LORD thy God giveth thee, thou shalt not harden thine heart, nor shut thine hand from thy poor brother:
15:8 But thou shalt open thine hand wide unto him, and shalt surely lend him sufficient for his need, in that which he wanteth.
15:9 Beware that there be not a thought in thy wicked heart, saying, The seventh year [of Jubilee], the year of release, is at hand; and thine eye be evil against thy poor brother, and thou givest him nought; and he cry unto the LORD against thee, and it be sin unto thee.
15:10 Thou shalt surely give him, and thine heart shall not be grieved when thou givest unto him: because that for this thing the LORD thy God shall bless thee in all thy works, and in all that thou puttest thine hand unto.
15:11 For the poor shall never cease out of the land: therefore I command thee, saying, Thou shalt open thine hand wide unto thy brother, to thy poor, and to thy needy, in thy land.

From these verses it is it clear that we will always have poor people in our community (“the poor shall never cease out of the land”), and it abundantly clear that it is our duty to help them (“Thou shalt surely give…”) End of preachy mode. My apologies if this offended those of you that aren’t Christians or Jews. But again, even folks that are strident atheists should see the wisdom of having extra food storage to provide for charity. It is in your own best interest.

Letter Re: Retreats in the Eastern United States

Dear Editor:
As you likely know from my prior communications, I am a long time reader of your web site, your novel “Patriots”, and your recent “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation” book, which is, other things being equal, well written and interesting. However, the obvious exclusion, which you freely articulate, is the Eastern US. I’ m bringing this up for two reasons:
1) I am an ex-military Emergency Room Physician, who is convinced that TEOTWAWKI is very, very near ( the next signal is when the US Dollar Index goes below 77, that’s it! The “Patriots” [economic collapse] model will then come into full play), who is personally looking at retreats in the middle and east Tennessee, southwestern Virginia, north Georgia, and western North Carolina regions. These are the areas that I am most familiar with, having grown up hunting and fishing, there. Although I have a heavily supplied, fairly secluded and defensible, and very well armed suburban outpost with several highly skilled sons for fire support, I am looking for a secondary retreat for when it looks as if our ammo is exceeded by the number of urban zombies (or, police state drones, same thing) invading the “burbs.” Thus, I am seeing a lot of land that is reasonably priced and fairly remote from the Golden Horde and it seems that such represents a logical retreat location. Obviously the Boston/Washington DC corridor, and at least 200, maybe 300, miles surrounding it, is to be avoided, as when TSHTF, the skill-less, resource-less, dependent, sometimes brain-less hordes from that region will descend upon the rest of humanity like locusts. Otherwise, I see many areas East of the Mississippi River that might be included in a listing of potentially useful survival sites.
2) I suspect that many of your readers are from the East of the Mississippi area, and can’t, as I can’t, truly relate to the Western regions. (Although I’ve hunted in the West and the main difference is that you guys don’t have “true woods” with heavy thickets that require snake pants and machetes for movement.) I think that you either you need to look at producing a new “retreats” book focusing on the East (which it is clear you aren’t really interested in, from the forward in Rawles on Retreats and Relocation or we need a sub-forum on this topic for a detailed, ongoing discussion. Maybe an area of your web site site for discussion on this topic. Much thanks for your work, – Wardoctor

JWR Replies: You are correct. As I wrote in the opening chapter of Rawles on Retreats and Relocation I only have recommendations on 19 western states, (excluding 29 eastern states) for two major reasons: 1.) their high ambient population density, and 2.) their downwind locations, in the path of fallout from the U.S. Air Force missile fields, roughly half of which are around the juncture of Nebraska, Colorado, and Wyoming, and large fields in central Montana and north-central North Dakota. (Where the vast majority of enemy “throw weight” would presumably land, nearly all in the form of fallout-producing ground bursts.) And, BTW, even if I thought those locales were suitable for retreats, I wouldn’t feel qualified to write on the subject, since I am a westerner. (I haven’t traveled extensively in the eastern U.S.)

I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers that are interested in retreats east of the Mississippi River should chime in on a new thread of discussion at the The Claire Files, in their “Gulching” Forum. I just started a new thread titled: “From SurvivalBlog: What are the Best Eastern Retreat Locales?)

Odds ‘n Sods:

Quoting AllAfrica.com, economist Richard Daughty (a.k.a. “The Mogambo Guru”) commented on the dire straits of the hyperinflated Zimbabwean dollar: “…in local currency, ‘current gold producer price stands at Zim$16,000 per gram.’ This is the producer price, which works out to Zim$497,655.63 per ounce.” The Mogambo notes that the Zimbabweans that invested in gold back before the currency inflation began in earnest are now thankful for their foresight. My observation: Someday you may be similarly thankful. Just plan ahead. If you haven’t done so already, diversify your investment portfolio into gold and silver. Sleep soundly.

  o o o

S.F. in Hawaii mentioned two bits of McGyver that he found on the Internet: Video on how to re-build dead laptop battery packs, and another video on how to make a whipped cream can secret safe that you can leave in your refrigerator.

   o o o

Apparently, the South African 7.62mm NATO ball ammo currently on the U.S. market was diverted from intended destruction as scrap metal. The CNN reporter makes it sound like some horrendous crime. But our kids here at the Rawles Ranch are benefiting from that surplus South African ammo. It would a shame if it had been run through a popper and melted for scrap. My advice: stock up, because obviously there won’t be any more imported.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference in the world. But, the Marines don’t have that problem .” – Ronald Wilson Reagan

Note from JWR:

On a recent car trip, we saw a pair of Sand Hill Cranes in a marsh near the side of the road. The Memsahib, a life-long birder, was very excited to finally be able to put them on her "life list."

Letter Re: Advice on Stocking up on Clothing For Families With Children

Mr. Rawles,
I’ve read your book and perused your web site extensively, yet there is one issue which I cannot find a plan or answer for: growing children.
I have three and five year old boys. Kids grow of course, and fast. Stocking up on clothing, shoes, et cetera while planning for future growth is like stocking up for five or six separate people. I’m sure there are many of us who would appreciate some advice on this issue, and maybe some time in the future you could address it.
As a comment, I highly recommend an anti-diarrheal such as Loperamide in one’s medicine chest. One half of all deaths during the Civil War were intestinal disorders: typhoid, diarrhea, and dysentery. When a new dark age settles upon mankind, poor hygiene and tainted food or contaminated water will again take their toll, especially on kids.
From a history on Civil War Medicine which you may find interesting, as the descriptions of some Civil War camps might resemble some retreat [situation]s. (The following is quote from The American Civil War Home Page):
“About half of the deaths from disease during the Civil War were caused by intestinal disorders. The remainder died from pneumonia and tuberculosis. Camps populated by young soldiers who had never before been exposed to a large variety of common contagious diseases were plagued by outbreaks of measles, chickenpox, mumps, and whooping cough.
The culprit in most cases of wartime illness, however, was the shocking filth of the army camp itself. An inspector in late 1861 found most Federal camps ‘littered with refuse, food, and other rubbish, sometimes in an offensive state of decomposition; slops deposited in pits within the camp limits or thrown out of broadcast; heaps of manure and offal close to the camp.” As a result, bacteria and viruses spread through the camp like wildfire. Bowel disorders constituted the soldiers’ most common complaint. The Union army reported that more than 995 out of every 1,000 men eventually contracted chronic diarrhea or dysentery during the war; the Confederates fared no better.
Typhoid fever was even more devastating. Perhaps one-quarter of non-combat deaths in the Confederacy resulted from this disease, caused by the consumption of food or water contaminated by salmonella bacteria. Epidemics of malaria spread through camps located next to stagnant swamps teeming with anopheles mosquito. Although treatment with quinine reduced fatalities, malaria nevertheless struck approximately one quarter of all servicemen; the Union army alone reported one million cases of it during the course of the war. Poor diet and exposure to the elements only added to the burden. A simple cold often developed into pneumonia, which was the third leading killer disease of the war, after typhoid and dysentery.”
 Regards, – Jeff

The Memsahib Replies: Buying clothes for kids can be problematic. We buy lots extra “to grow into”-sized clothes at thrift stores. Many thrift stores have special sales once a month where you can buy a bagful of clothes for a dollar. This is a great time to stock up on kid’s clothes. They may not be stylish, but they are inexpensive and functional. If you make the rounds of thrift stores regularly on their sales days you will be able to stock up inexpensively.

Avoid jackets with zippers because zippers break easily.

When thrift store shopping, be on the lookout in the sweater section for Merino wool sweaters (usually tagged as such.) These can be purchased for a fraction of their retail price. They stay warm even when wet, so are ideal for layering outdoor clothing.

We like to visit thrift stores when we travel to large urban areas with affluent populations. (You won’t find much selection in small town thrift stores, and the thrift store clothes there are generally heavily worn, with little life left in them.)

The only items that we avoid at thrift stores are shoes, which might be vectors for foot fungi. . We buy lots extra mud boots (in several sequentially larger sizes than our kid’s current ones) when they are on sale at our local farm co-op store. I’ve also lucked into some brand new (unissued) military combat boots at great prices at gun shows. It is amazing what Uncle Sugar releases as surplus, usually at pennies on the dollar.

Our extra clothes stored for survival purposes are nearly all in earth tones (not reds, yellows, pinks, blacks, or bright blues). Light-colored clothes made from natural fibers can be dyed to “tacticalize” them. As mentioned in JWR’s book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation, it is a good idea to buy packets of RIT brown and green dyes when you find it on sale. Also a lot of our native plants can be used to dye natural fiber fabrics. Your local library will probably have books on plants for natural dyes. Also see this web site. And BTW, a fun Spring craft project is coloring hard boiled eggs with natural dyes.

One not to overlook when thrift store is gloves in sequential sizes. If you have too many, they always can be used for barter. Most clothing items can be improvised, but gloves and footwear are the most difficult.

Another good source for kids clothes are hand-me-downs. We never say “no” to hand-me-downs. I sort all the excess clothes into boxes with the sizes marked outside. We get double duty by storing unisex clothing. We store basic sturdy pants, that can be worn by boys or girls. Ditto for tops. We don’t store anything obviously girly. Rightly so, the boys in your family will not wear anything girly. But girls can wear “boy” clothes in the event of TEOTWAWKI. Boy clothes are usually better made, comfortable to wear, modest, and in more tactical colors. By the way, aren’t the latest fashions just awful!? At a recent social event at which kids of all ages competed in games and relays, the girls in their low rise pants couldn’t keep up with the others because these girls kept having to yank their pants back up! And of course the girls wearing those spaghetti strap tops were not only freezing, but distracted because their immodestly cut tops kept gaping during the active play. The last thing you want in a dire situation is the females in your family distracted by a wardrobe malfunction!

Internet/mail order dealers such as Cheaper Than Dirt and Major Surplus and other surplus sellers occasionally offer great prices on foreign military surplus camouflage uniforms, of which the small sizes will fit older children who weigh 100 lbs. or more.

I hope it goes without saying you shouldn’t force your wimmin’ folk to wear drab ugly boy clothes before the balloon goes up! Nothing will turn the gals off preparedness faster than denying them the enjoyment of bright pretty colors, lace, and ribbons because they won’t be practical if and when western civilization collapses!

Letter Re: Some Suggested .308 Battle Rifle Upgrades

Jim,
A few tips/modifications that I have picked up regarding 308 rifles that I hope may be helpful. All the “battle” rifles could stand to lose a little weight and be a little more user friendly. Surprisingly, I have re-worked my FN-FAL down to under the weight of many AR-15s out there with their axle-sized heavy barrels! A heavy barrel carbine seems like a oxymoron to me. Any weight you save, increases the amount of ammo you can carry.
FAL/L1A1– Remove the FAL muzzle brake (its too heavy and too long), replace with a [Smith Enterprise] Vortex flash hider or the Steyr 3-prong flash hider. Replace the round FAL front sight with a square one, you get a better sight picture, or better yet get a tritium night front sight. L1A1 has a fine front sight already. Replace the rear sight with a paratrooper rear sight. You lose some of the adjustment but they don’t have the 3 MOA wiggle that the typical FAL rear sight has. If you have metal handguards, ditch them for the Imbel plastic handguards (it takes a blow torch to melt them and they still don’t heat up like the metal STG ones do). L1A1 handguards are fine as well. Forget the bipod, or get a QD bipod that can go in your ruck, its extra weight. [In his book “Boston’s Gun Bible”,] Boston T. Party explains how to change the charging handle into a forward assist/reciprocating handle, as is standard on the heavy barrel FALs, easy to do mod to the bolt carrier. Speaking of bolt carrier get one with sand cuts, and even better is to swap it out for a Para bolt carrier, even if you keep the standard stock. This eliminates the “rat tail” and in a jam, you can hinge open the receiver and work on it. DSA makes a aluminum lower to shave some weight, but its not worth the cost IMHO. DS Arms is also offering a folding stock that accepts CAR-15 style collapsible stocks. The advantage here is that if you wear body armor, or change seasons, you can quickly adjust stock length for the heavy clothes you have on. Neat, but not necessary. If you do go this route, use a Vltor buffer tube. They make them with a screw off endcap so you have an extra storage compartment for your cleaning kit etc. Are you going to scope it? DSA scope mount is the only way to go. They even sell one that is milled out for the [Trijicon] ACOG, which allows you to use iron sights as a back up. Finally, swap out selector for a L1A1 selector, since its easier to manipulate. [JWR Adds: To use an inch selector in a metric FAL, it will take some minor machining or cautious Dremelling. If you aren’t mechanically inclined, then selectors that have already been modified to fit metric are often available through the FALFiles Forums “Marketplace” forum page. Just post a “Want to Buy: (WTB) Inch Selector Modified for Metric FAL””) ad.] If you live in a cold climate you may even want to swap out the lower for a L1A1 pistol grip that has the winter trigger guard feature. [JWR Adds: That will only work if you also change the gas block/front sight base, since inch rifles and metric rifles have their front and rear sights at significantly different heights above the bore centerline.] Have a spare parts kit, know how to swap and headspace a new barrel and bolt. Get your spare parts now before they dry up again.

M1A – Get a USGI winter safety, these are fairly rare and I’m not sure of a good source. Swap out front sight/flash hider with a Vortex from Smith Enterprise. Its lighter and works better. They even have a gas block front sight, but you lose some sight length. Get several synthetic stocks from Fred’s M14 Stocks and camouflage them to your environment and the various seasons. Scoping the M1A makes it heavy, but the only mount I found that holds rock steady is Smith Enterprises.YMMV Get some variable glass, a nice leupold, to compliment the M1A. A nice combo I played with today was a Scout M1A (not the SOCOM [model] as the 16″ barrel gives off some tremendous noise with the noise maker on the end) with the shorter 18″ barrel in a Vltor pistol grip, collapsible stock. It was short and sweet. Especially if your terrain precludes 500-800 meter shots. Forget the Picatinny rails, they are just too heavy. Spare bolt, and rear sight parts were cheap, but once the CMP sold out their prices have skyrocketed. Get them while you can. The Taiwan GI mags are comparable to USGI, but anything else is junk.

HK91 – Again, get the Vortex, no difference in weigh but it works better. Get the CETME bayonet lug cap, since it has a cleaning kit that slides behind it in the cocking tube. I don’t know about fixed bayonet charge, but this provides an option The slim forearms, with heat shield, are the lightest. Again on the bipod, do you really need it? The low profile scope mounts are the way to go. The surplus W. German FERO are 4x and nice, but the mounts weigh a ton, ditch it. Drill out the rear sight to have a up-close ghost ring. There is an aftermarket sight drum coming that has this. Flapper mag release, this is expensive to modify to your gun, but well worth it. The Tac Latch is another option, but even it is over $50. Both of these speedup the process of magazine changes tremendously. Swap out the charging handle for the larger MG handle, its easier to manipulate under stress and with gloves on. The sliding (A3) HK stock is neat, but hot in the summer and cold against the check in the winter, keep the standard plastic stock, consider a CETME stock, since it has a recoil pad. Get an extra parts kit. You need a spare bolt, carrier, and trigger pack, and rollers. CETME trigger groups have a better trigger pull and you may want to swap it in( but the selector arrangement is different) and you have to modify it for semi only. If the Firearms Owners Protection Act (FOPA) or 1986 ever gets repealed, modifying the HK and CETME trigger packs to allow full auto is simple. [JWR Adds: Needless to say, all NFA rules apply. Full auto conversions are illegal in the U.S., and it is illegal to own both a semiauto rifle and selective fire conversion parts. (In the eyes of the law, owning both is the same as owning a gun that has already been converted. If any readers desire full auto capability,then $200 transfer tax full autos are available for purchase in most states, although prices have been bid up to astronomical levels since the 1986 machinegun freeze. I personally feel that semi-auto is fully adequate (and usually more effective) for self defense, and the high profile associated with owning a registered Class 3 full auto or suppressor might be counterproductive, depending on circumstances.] Vector Arms is selling HK91 clones with the flapper mag release already installed if you are in the market. They even have a 16″ barreled HK91 clone with a short cocking tube and short carrier. (It cuts weight way down, but you lose sight radius, and 16″ in a 308 is pretty darn short.) [Alloy] HK magazines are as cheap as $1.50 each, get many while you can.

AR-10 – I don’t know anything about them, but there are some piston uppers coming out for them. The HK417 looks nice, but pricey, if ever available to civilians. [JWR Adds: My advice is to buy only AR-10s that can accept inexpensive FN-FAL magazines, such as the AR-10s made by Bushmaster and Rock River Arms.]

AR-15 – Okay its not a battle rifle but every house should have one, my mouse gun has a pencil 16″ barrel, standard handguards, and a flat top upper with a Trijicon ACOG. I’m not sure with the fascination of hanging things on them like a Christmas tree. I do have a QD Surefire that attached to the bayonet lug for use at night. CavArms has the plastic lowers with A1 stocks to get the weight down even farther, I don’t know how well they hold up, but Brownell’s has them pretty cheap right now. As you know registered drop-in auto sears are available, so get the spares you need. [JWR Adds: A registered drop-in auto sear is presently around $15,000, if you can find someone willing to part with one.]
Get the ‘smithing knowledge on your weapons now, and stock up on spare firing pins, magazines, and parts. You should already have the ammo. You need to be able to strip it apart and at least change out the firing pin on everything you own, your life may depend on it. Ditto on firearms training.

Okay now for my question to you regarding fire protection. Our local fire department has hose filters that allows them to draw from ponds and lakes if the tankers go empty. Fine and dandy if the fire department is still around. What options are available if they are not? One of the earlier”Jericho” shows, showed them back pumping a pool filter to fight a fire. I imagine it would take a whopper of a “pool” filter/pump to actually do this. I guess bucket brigade may be the only option? – Mike

JWR Replies: Gasoline engine-powered portable pumps are available for about the same cost as a portable generator. These can easily provide enough water pressure for a firefighting rig. I also recommend that if you have a retreat property with a hillside above it that accommodate a cistern with at least 40 feet of “fall” to your retreat buildings that you construct at 1,500 gallon (pr larger) cistern. Be sure that the water service line coming down from this cistern is at least 1.5-inches in diameter (preferably 2″ diameter), and Schedule 40 specification. That will give your sufficient pressure and volume for a firefighting rig.

Note from JWR:

Please consider writing an article for Round10 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $1,600.) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. I will again be sending out a few complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots” as “honorable mention” awards. If you want a chance to win the contest, start writing and e-mail us your article for Round 10, which began on April 1st and ends May 30th. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Letter Re: Bad News on Peak Oil: Five Year Slide to a 50% Production Crash

Dear Jim and Family,
I have bad news on the Peak Oil front. We’re about five years from losing 50% of our current production, in real world terms. The producing countries are failing in their big fields, many from 8-15% decline a year (Cantarell in Mexico is down 25% from last year, Ghawar is down 10.5%, Burgan in Kuwait down 12%, Iran down something like 16%, Russia down 12%, UK/North Sea no longer exporting). Even if there are no wars and no embargos, we only have about 5 years before we only have around half as much oil (gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, plastics, cosmetics, lubricants, pesticides, etc) production left. There will still be oil in the ground, however it won’t be enough for the demand so the remaining supply will be bid up in price until things get very bad. Very bad. If we’re quite lucky we’ll see rolling blackouts (scheduled) in the Western states which only last a few hours a day, rather than days a week. There are certain unpleasant complications too, already being felt around the world.

The first to feel the effects of Peak Oil was Cuba. Contrary to public claims by the commies, they don’t feed themselves with their city gardens. They feed 18% of themselves, and import 82% of their food. Castro lies: how unexpected!

Zimbabwe is ruled by a crazy despot named Robert Mugabe. First he stole the land of the only productive farmers and gave it to untrained poor people. [JWR Adds: And lots of land to his political cronies in his own tribe, most of whom have left the land fallow.] Crops failed. Lack of crops meant lack of money (and food), and fuel bills didn’t get paid so fuel stopped being delivered to Zimbabwe. The country has 1200% inflation (or higher) and the whole country has collapsed. Then he cleverly tore down the slums and did not build new housing for the 120K poor people now homeless. With no money, how could he? Before his brilliant land theft, Zimbabwe was feeding Africa with its grain. I’m still trying to figure out why nobody has thought they might shoot Mugabe.

Another country suffering from Peak Oil is Guinea. This is one of two major cacao (chocolate) producing countries. The average person there earns $370/year. The fast rise in fuel prices has destroyed most businesses and farms there so there have been fuel/food riots.

Indonesia, usually considered a fairly stable developing country, has had several strikes and riots over fuel costs. Indonesia long subsidized fuel costs so it was the same everywhere. This seemed like a good idea back in the early 1990s when [the price of] fuel was pretty stable anyway (after Gulf War 1) but then the price went crazy and the government lost control. I recall that people died in the rioting, and more than a couple. Indonesia used to export oil, but its been importing for the last few years now.

The USA peaked its oil supplies in 1970, a year earlier than M. King Hubbert (the father of Peak Oil) predicted. At that point, the USA suffered a major economic shortage and suffered troubles from the OPEC embargo. The USA responded by getting involved in Middle Eastern conflicts and sold weapons in the region, making a bad situation worse. A deal closed with Saudi Arabia was deepened with modern planes and tanks and more oil was pumped out, using the Latest Technology. By 1980, the USA was struggling with even worse problems but Ronald Reagan convinced the Saudis to pump oil even faster, with even later technology, greatly increasing the production rate of their wells, and the decline of their major field, Ghawar. Prudhoe Bay helps the USA a little but the decline continued, even with the latest technology (notice the emphasis?). By 1989, Russia, forced to sell its oil at a lower price thanks to the Saudis, declares bankruptcy and the Berlin Wall comes down. US citizens all buy SUVs to celebrate the end of communism and recession promptly kicks in after fighting Gulf War 1. GHWB is replaced by Clinton and he’s the first president we know of for sure that’s heard of peak oil. GHWB probably did too, and Jimmy Carter talked about energy crisis but we didn’t want to hear it and fired him. Lord Knows, the American People won’t stand for lowered expectations. All that oil pumping in Saudi means the field is going empty. The latest figures show its declined from 8% in January to 10.5% in March, which means the decline is accelerating. In these Latest Technology oilfields, oil supply can suddenly just… stop. You pump water in and get water and oil back out most of the time, but if you pump too much too fast you just get water out. And your field is done.

And that’s kinda what’s happened in Venezuela too. Overproduction by politically correct amateurs. A boss who cheats the polls, kills his opponents, and blames the USA for his problems. Like Mugabe a few years ago. I wonder if it will go just as well?

Nigeria doesn’t have a civil war. Honest. It’s just Youths. With AK-47s, who control large parts of the oil fields in the Niger delta. Its just Troubles, not stealing oil and kidnapping oil workers and stopping work on the oil platforms. Just troubles. Honest. Nigeria is not in Civil War. You can trust me on this. Pay no attention to the blackouts covering most of the country, or the fact that exports have dropped by 600,000 barrels a day. Not civil war. And I got a bridge I can sell you.

What do you think will happen when there’s only half as much oil left to use? Its called a Bidding War. The price is bid up until demand is destroyed. How high would that price go when there’s only half as much fuel to go around, and we’ve got 1/3 of China and 1/3 of India who are bidding for it too, and their money is more stable than ours because they’re not bankrupt funding the Iraq War. $300/barrel? Nope, that’s too low. More like $500. Gasoline is around $3/gal now, when oil is $63/bbl. Do the math on that. At $300/bbl, gasoline jumps to around $15/gal. Rip out the taxes and its $11/gal, which is still really high but less than beer. At that price driving around will be expensive, and questionable for commuting. If you keep your junker SUV and carpool, you can afford it, barely. Of course, when 100 million more Chinese buy cars, the price goes up again, to $500/bbl, which means fuel now costs around $20/gal. This is more than the average person can afford. Carpooling is no longer something you can do on a daily basis unless you can carry 3 other people. The vehicle gets more crowded, the bidding goes higher and production keeps falling, inevitably, because there’s just only so much oil to go around. And before you get too excited about Ethanol, oil makes the pesticides and herbicides which makes growing corn over and over in the same field possible. Without it, you need crop rotation or bugs and rots and molds will destroy all future crops. Crop rotation means far lower yield, which means less ethanol, much less. Around 1/6th as much and at that point, wouldn’t you rather eat the corn? The greatest irony of a bidding war and fuel economy is the higher the total economy rises, the higher the price of fuel can go. A 60 mpg Prius means that the price of gasoline can run to $45/gal. for the average driver. Throw in one carpooler and it doubles to $90/gal. Swap that Prius for a modified Plug In Prius, getting 150 mpg (some have reported 200 mpg) and a short commute, and you’re looking at $100/gal for gasoline, sold in a hand cut, etched glass decanter at a high end liquor/fuel store where men with shotguns stand guard at the front door. Ad nauseam. Yes, you can argue that such and such thing will make this new alternative source of fuel affordable but the real world can’t afford that stuff. Nickel is in short supply: there just isn’t enough of it to make batteries for all the vehicles needed. Other options aren’t as good as nickel, or are even rarer and more expensive.

So basically, we’re up the creek. Take a good look at your car in the driveway and think hard: should I be selling this car and buy a junker that only lasts a couple more years rather than sit in debt on something I won’t be able to afford gas for? A few days ago I figured we’d see $4.50/gal as the high point this year. Now I think we’ll pass $6/gal by Christmas. Think about that.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope that a miracle occurs, but we don’t plan for miracles here. We plan for worst case, and worst case is getting used to the idea of unexpected fuel shortages and expected unsteady-but-continual rise in prices.

I feel like sticking my head in the sand and doing my Ostrich Impression. I’m seriously pondering bailing out of the city much sooner because of this, but there are things I need to finish here so we’ll wait as long as we can bear it. Best, – InyoKern

Letter Re: Resources on SurvivalBlog

Mr. Rawles:
I discovered SurvivalBlog just by accident about two months ago, when I was doing a Google search on “FN-FAL” [rifles]. I pretty soon discovered your blog was a treasure trove. Not only am I totally addicted to reading the new postings every day (I read it on my lunch hour at work), but I’ve also started working my way back through the archives. (It was just two weeks ago that I discovered the little “Search Posts on SurvivalBlog” window down under your rotating ads. Maybe you should put that up at the top, so people can spot it easier.) Wow! I just can’t believe how much practical no-BS info that you have put together in your blog postings, and in the permanent [button bar] pages at the top (like your Retreat [Areas] page and your Survival Guns page), plus all your FAQs. Also, thanks for your big glossary, which is great for a newbie like me. (I’m a served as a Air Force mechanic and I know a lot about vehicles and guns, but the rest of preparedness is pretty new to me.) I had always felt the need to be ready for more than just high water and hurricanes, but couldn’t put my finger on why. But now, after reading your blog and your books, I’m connecting all the dots. Everything you write rings true with me. We do live in a very fragile world. I saw that up close and personal, right after Hurricane Katrina. And that was just a regional disaster. Something nationwide will be horrendous. An you were right when you said: “The power grid is the lynchpin.” Once that grid goes down past a few days, people are going to come unglued.

So now, I’m selling off some of my “Big Boy Toys” (like our ski boat, our his-and-hers matched set of jet skis, my Army Air Corps and early Air Force flight instrument collection, and my commemorative guns.) I’m spending all that cash on getting prepared, big time. Example: Right now, the Mrs. and I are getting our long term food stocks and heirloom garden seeds squared away. I just recently got your Rawles on Retreats and Relocation book, plus your Best of the Blog book. They are both some Hotel Sierra reference books. I tore through those books! Now the Mrs. is reading them. And I just ordered your novel [“Patriots”], too, and we can’t wait to read it.

But the main reason I’m writing this is to say that just last week I decided that I was being a freeloader, so I signed up for The Ten Cent Challenge. I challenge everyone else out there reading this to do it, too. Come on you clowns, if you think that SurvivalBlog ain’t worth 10 cents a day, y’all are kidding yourself. Fact is, I’d be happy to pay ten times that–a dollar a day–for what I learn on SurvivalBlog. Example: Just what I learned about generators by itself saved me about $500, last month. (On Mr. Rawles’s advice, I bought a diesel engine low-RPM genset instead of the “bargain” gasoline-powered high-RPM genset that I had originally wanted to buy. It [the diesel generator] will last 2X or 3X longer [than the gasoline-powered model.] Plus, until I had read through SurvivalBlog, I hadn’t even thought about common fuel for [the generator and] my [diesel] tractor and my Dodge pickup, which is also a diesel. That’s just one small example of what I’m talking about. Knowledge is power, and knowledge prevents us making expensive mistakes. Like I said, SurvivalBlog is a treasure trove of knowledge and worth every freakin’ penny to me, and it should be to you, too. It is a disgrace that only 1% of the SurvivalBlog readers have bought a subscription. For you that are freeloading, shame on you. Quit freeloading, and pony up! – Gus in Alabama.

Odds ‘n Sods:

In a recent e-mail, frequent contributor Michael Z. Williamson noted that the Rock River Arms AR10 (The “LAR-10”) variant accepts inexpensive FAL magazines–both metric and inch pattern (L1A1), and is reasonably priced. He also mentioned that despite the looming specter of the H.R. 1022 Federal ban, there are still some bargains in military surplus.308 rifle magazines. Notably, Mike found a source for used FAL magazines for just $5 each, and I found used HK91 (G3) steel magazines for $7.99, and alloy magazines as little as $1.20 each! (HK G3 magazines will also fit CETME rifles.) Stock up, folks!

o o o

Gardening season will soon be here in North America. If you haven’t yet purchased some heirloom variety (non-hybrid) gardening seeds, then now is a great time to do so. I highly recommend the heirloom seed variety packs sold by The Ark Institute, in Bandon, Oregon. Practice using those seeds this gardening season to see which varieties do well in your microclimate, and just importantly, practice saving seed for future crops. (The book “Seed to Seed” describes how to do this for may types of vegetables and grain crops.)