Note from JWR:

Congrats to David C., the high bidder in the most recent SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a brand new Schecter “Warthog” Electric Guitar. It was kindly donated by the fine folks at Schecter Guitar Research. Today, we are beginning a new auction, this auction is for several items that are being auctioned together as a lot: 1.) A late-1940s-vintage Airline brand all vacuum tube (highly EMP resistant) AM tabletop radio in a attractive bakelite cabinet. It works very well. and, 2.) A special five book package including: one autographed copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, one autographed copy of Rawles on Retreats and Relocation , one autographed copy of SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog – Volume 1, one autographed copy of my novel Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse, and one copy of The Encyclopedia of Country Living by the late Carla Emery. These items have a combined retail value of around $370. The auction ends on April 15th. The opening bid is just $40. You can e-mail me your bid.

Letter Re: Selecting a Retreat Location in Australia, by Mike McD.

Jim:
1) I traveled around Australia for several weeks a few years ago. Australia’s main problem as a survival retreat is shown by a comparison of its population with that of its neighbors to the north:
a) Australia: 20.5 million
b) Neighbors: 1,869 Million
( China: 1,321 million, Indonesia: 223 million , Vietnam: 85 million,
Malaysia: 27 million, Philippines: 85 million, Japan: 128 million )
Note that the invasion route to Australia from Asia is a chain of islands with short distances between them.
Australia would probably have been occupied by the Japanese in WWII if not for the US Navy and would probably be invaded within a decade if the US Navy ever withdrew.
The technological advantage over Asia that Australia had 150 years ago has largely disappeared — as has the Royal Navy.

2) The second thing to realize is that many of the eastern coastal strips that receive rainfall consist of extremely rugged terrain — networks of deep canyons with vertical sides and narrow ridges.
I would hate to be caught in one of those box canyons if a wildfire erupted in the extremely dry, eucalyptus forests. The area of useful farmland is even smaller than would appear from a country-scale map.
Other hazards include some extremely ill-tempered vipers and brushwood that has poisonous splinters. As mentioned in the article, most of the country is arid desert in which long term survival would be difficult. – Don W.

JWR Replies: You are right about the sheer weight of population numbers in Asia. But I have to wonder what circumstances would precipitate a mass illegal immigration. If there is a total collapse, how would those countless million get to Australia? By sailboat? Perhaps some Australians readers would care to chime in with their opinions.

My key question is: Are there some particular towns that are well-removed from the major population centers on the east coast –perhaps up in The Wet– that would be well-suited as safe havens?

Four Letters Re: Comments on High Capacity .45 ACP Pistols

James:
You asked for comments on the Taurus 24/7, so I thought I would give you my opinion. The major appeal of this gun to me was the price. I got mine for about $315 brand new with three magazines.
Aside from price, the other deciding factor was the ergonomics. With the Ribber grip, the gun is very comfortable to hold and to shoot. Since I bought the gun for my wife, who has small hands, this was a major factor. The manual safety was also important to my wife, although I don’t find them necessary if you know what you are doing.
Other nice features include the tactical mount and the loaded chamber indicator.
As far as reliability goes, my wife and I have put about 600 rounds through it, without a single malfunction. I have always kept the gun clean, and well maintained, so I do not know how it performs when dirty, but as it is being used strictly for home and vehicle protection, I am disinclined to put it through any real torture tests.
Accuracy is good enough for a pistol, and I am sure it the gun is accurate beyond my own limits, but the double action only (DAO) trigger has a lot of travel to it, which is something to be overcome, especially when shooting rapid fire groups. Tests show that it can shoot 4 inch groups at 25 yards, and I have never shot it at a known distance (KD) range, but I don’t doubt that it can.
All things considered, I am very happy with this gun, as is my wife. The only major drawback to it is its size. Since we got the compact, not the subcompact model, it barely fits in my wife’s purse, and lately it stays at home and my wife carries a Kahr P40 instead. Also worth noting is that I have never found a quality holster that was specifically designed for it.
I would recommend the gun to anyone who needs firepower and doesn’t have a lot of money to spend, but if you can spare $150 more, then you can’t go wrong with a Glock [Model 21]. – Pete

 

Mr. Rawles:
My experience with a Glock 21 .45 Auto: I’ve owned my 1st generation (no finger grooves or rail) Glock 21 .45 ACP with factory installed Trijicon sights for about 13 years. I bought it new and it has yet to malfunction. It will reliably run with both FMJ and JHP cartridges without modifications. I’ve put a few thousand factory loads through mine and it has yet to malfunction even once. Before my purchase I read about Glock’s drop tests and torture tests, talked to others that owned them and was finally convinced Glock was the way to go for me. If you adopt the mentality that your finger should remain off the trigger until ready to fire, the lack of a manual safety is not a detriment (like “Hoot” in Black Hawk Down – with his crooked finger in the air – “This here is my safety”). The G21 does feel large in my hand., but not enough that I can’t use it effectively. I’ve toyed with the idea of a custom grip reduction, but it may not be necessary for me. At the time I made the purchase HK didn’t have a comparable model. The G21 has a 13 round capacity and I wanted a capacity similar to the wondernine (large capacity 9mm) handgun it was replacing (I quickly got over the “tacticool” 9mm when I studied Dr. Martin Fackler’s data). The main advantages I saw, then and now, are reliability out of the box, price (I paid $529 in the early 1990s, about the same price now), parts are readily available (and Glock seems glad to sell them), accuracy and magazine capacity. Magazine prices average $16, though it’s worth mentioning that high capacity models crested $100 each during the 1994-2004 ban, during which I paid $55 each for used hi-cap magazines and I was glad to get them at the time (I installed Wolff springs in the used mags). I’ve been seeking another 1st generation G21 locally since “two is one – one is none” is a thought for the day. Other than the Wolff magazine springs, the only accessory I’ve seen fit to add is a Surefire tactical light and mount designed specifically for the Glock models that lack an accessory rail. The light has a quick detach feature (a part of the mount stays on the pistol frame) that is very easy to use. I have a Blackhawk holster that works well with or without the light. Before I added the Surefire mount, I carried the G21 in a Bianchi UM-84 holster and was pleased with how it fit.

Glock has recently introduced a new model .45 recently dubbed G21SF with a reduced the grip size (still 13 rounds), added a Picatinny 1913-sized rail and ambidextrous magazine release. I’ve been told the new rail design won’t work with some existing G21 holsters. The new magazine release requires a different magazine with a notch in the front of the magazine body. The G21SF specification magazine will work in the old G21s, but the old mags won’t work in the G21SF. From what I’ve seen Glock is only shipping the new magazine design now at the same price as the old mags. I’ve already noticed the new magazine design on gun show tables. I haven’t held a G21SF yet, but hope to do so soon. Kind Regards, – M. Artixerxe

 

Jim:
I am very impressed by the reliability, parts availability, and accuracy of STI pistols. They are more expensive than owning a Glock. In fact, for the price of a new STI you can own three new Glocks. For the price of a used STI you can probably own four used Glocks.
I have Glocks in 9mm and 10mm. Fantastic pistols. However, I shoot nothing better than I shoot my single stack .45s and my high-cap STIs.
STI is the big dog in competitions such as USPSA, IPSC. The guys who shoot them are hardcore and would buy anything better if it existed. After probably 50,000 rounds through my STIs they have all proven dead nuts reliable.
A high capacity .45 STI Eagle will cost about $1,600 new. Magazines that hold 15 rounds are $60. Not cheap, but excellent quality. Regards, – Straightblast

 

Jim,
About six months ago my wife bought a [Springfield Armory] XD in 9mm. After she fired it she made me take it to the range on my next trip to give it a run thru. I was so impressed I traded one of my two stainless steel HK USP 45s for a NIB bi-tone XD also in 9mm with light and a couple of other items including 10 used USGI 30 round AR[-15/M16] magazines. I replaced the USP as my daily carry and now use the XD as my primary.
The USP 45 is a good platform, however it is extremely ammo picky. Point in case is Wolf brand ammunition. Both of my USPs and a friends USP 45 cannot reliably fire Wolf brand ammo. Time and again they cannot chamber the round and become so stuck [that] alternate means of clearing the pistol is required (mallet to hammer it closed and hope when fired the case extracts, not recommended). The same can also be said for the occasional S&B round as well. The XD eats them all. As my skills have progressed I also am not pleased with the accuracy of any of the USPs I’ve shot, for the price they are disappointing. Out of the box both of our XDs are extremely accurate. I still have one of the USPs in my collection and as a carry gun for so many years I don’t know if I can part with it.
At the time of buying my XD I did not know about the parts issue and I found out when I went to order some extras as I was planning on using them as my ‘house standard’. With close to 1,000 rounds thru both the XDs without a single failure in these past few months (including roughly 50% Wolf brand ammo) I’m glad I have it. I don’t like the feel of glocks and neither does my wife, we’d never buy one. The verdict is out on a standard sidearm for my house, a pair of XDs a pair of [Beretta] 92FSs, several other 9mms… I know the .45 comment will be coming so here is something to consider- in my house I have a wife and three daughters. I’ll leave it at that, the .45 versus 9mm [arguments] have been beaten to death. To each their own and unlike the military I can shoot +p hollow points. 😉
One last thought: My wife was recently shooting her new SIG P228 and was getting some failures to eject. I had no issues and I figured out pretty quickly she was ‘limp wristing’ the pistol. Never had that issue with the XD. I hope that helps and if Springfield ever starts selling parts for the XD I’ll likely buy three more XD9s for the safe and enough parts to go around. – Prometheus

Odds ‘n Sods:

I mentioned this site about a year ago: Glock 21 Torture Test. But since then, the author has expanded his web page to describe his more recent tests, including driving over the Glock, and dropping it out of an airplane.

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Farmers Told “Don’t Panic Over Iowa [Soybean] Rust Discovery”

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Michael A. sent us this link to the calendar of scheduled Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) resets, from analysts at Credit Suisse. Michael’s comments: “The sub-primes are especially scary. I doubt many of them will be able to roll into a new mortgage given the tightening loan standards.” Here is a related article at Winter Economic & Market Watch. Some serious FFTAGFFR, folks!

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"I have wondered at times about what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them through the U.S. Congress." – Ronald Wilson Reagan

Notes from JWR:

Today is the last day of bidding in the current SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a brand new Schecter “Warthog” Electric Guitar. The high bid is now at $400. This is an awesome guitar that is decorated in a military aviation theme, from Schecter’s Tempest series. It has a $729 retail value. It was kindly donated by the fine folks at Schecter Guitar Research. The auction ends at midnight tonight. (March 15th.) Just e-mail me your bid.

Today we welcome our newest advertiser, Green Mountain Gear, in Vermont. They sell a broad line of tactical field gear, MOLLE gear, trauma kits, guns, gun accessories, optics, night vision gear, knives, survival kits, and backpacking stoves. Watch for announcements in coming weeks for Green Mountain Gear’s special “SurvivalBlog Group Buys.” These special deep discount purchases will be made directly from manufacturers. In a Group Buy, blog readers will e-mail their commitments on the quantity of an item that they’d like to buy. Based on our combined buying power, special wholesale pricing will be arranged with a manufacturer. I’ve been told that here are already Groups Buys planned for a variety of full capacity magazines and MOLLE gear.

Letter Re: Honey–Storage Life, Crystallization, Storage Quantities, and Medicinal Uses

Jim:
I was at Costco this week and paid particular attention to the bulk honey supplies they had . (I was buying a few 96 ounce jugs of Clover brand honey – good stuff). I had last purchased some of the same honey two months ago. It is now up nearly 80 cents from that time. In speaking to a friend who is involved in honey sales and production of bee related product, waxes, etc, they are very concerned about Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) and declines in the [bee] populations. They agree with points made at Survivalblog that prices will increase noticeably and that CCD and declining populations will finally make it to the big media. As he said, “Watch the sales take off and prices really rise.” Can’t stress enough getting that honey squirreled away.

On a side note, the honey I purchased has a “best when used by” date of February 2009. [JWR Adds: As explained in my recent SurvivalBlog article on honey, that date only reflects when the honey can be expected to crystallize. It is still edible and nutritious for decades.]
Best Regards, – MP in Seattle

Letter Re: Pros and Cons of Springfield Armory XD Pistols

Hi Jim,
I am grateful for your suggestion of the [Springfield Armory] XD in 45 ACP. I hadn’t heard of it before and the price is appealing. Could you take a few minutes to address the “cons” listed at Wikipedia? That would be much appreciated! – Eric M.

JWR Replies: As you will see in the following paragraphs, I’m now having serious second thoughts about suggesting the XD pistols for a survival battery. The following are the XD “Cons” mentioned in Wikipedia (in orange text). My comments are in-line:

* Though some parts can be purchased through aftermarket suppliers, Springfield Armory refuses to sell some individual XD parts. Springfield Armory’s position seems to be that with a lifetime warranty that includes repair work, parts sales are not necessary. This is a major stumbling block for shooters who are involved in competitive pistol activities, because they are unable to keep a small stock of parts on hand for emergencies. People who carry their pistol every day (and thus are unable to ship their gun off for a week while it’s being repaired) have also complained about the policy.

That is a huge issue, and one that would prevent me from buying one of these pistols until parts do become available. I just consulted with master pistol gunsmith Teddy Jacobsen. When I asked him about obtaining spare parts for XDs, this was his reply:

“Hi Jim,
Sad to say I can not [get parts for XD pistols.] This is not the kind of gun to buy because the factory will ask you to send the gun to them for repair. That alone cost one hundred dollars FedEx over night, round trip.

They will not sell anyone critical parts. I had a man call me who broke his trigger bar and SA would not sell him one. He was going to take it to a local welding shop and have it welded up so he could sell it.

Its a nightmare trying to replace the pressed-in extractor. I called a plater that I know very well and asked him how he gets the extractor out in order to plate the slide. He told me he can not get it out and he plates the slide with the extractor in place.

I wish I had a better solution but for a survival weapon the Glock is the way to go. I just did some work for special ops in “The Big Sandbox” and one was a Glock and the other an HK. You can buy any part for a Glock an change the extractor in 30 seconds.”

* Those who have tried installing aftermarket or custom sights on XD’s have reported that removing the existing sights can be an extremely difficult process, often requiring the services of a gunsmith.

I’d recommend having Trijicon do that work. To do that you mail just your slide to Tooltech Gunsight. (That is Trijicon’s custom installation shop.)

* Pre-2006 versions of the XD were protected with a metal treatment called Burinal™. Some who own pistols with the Burinal™ treatment have reported significant rust problems – especially those who carry the XD against their skin. Fortunately, current versions of the XD are being manufactured the Melonite™ brand of Carbonitriding, which is the same process as the Tenifer™ coating used on Glocks.

That is no longer much of an issue. No new XD pistols will be delivered with the old finish, and 80% of these guns hitting the secondary market have the new finish. The ones that have the old finish often sell at a discount. (That, BTW, is a good bargaining strategy.) If you do buy one with the discontinued porous Burinal finish, you can send it off to Arizona Response Systems, The Robar Company, or Century Gun Works for coating in an exotic, rust-resistant finish.

However, in my opinion the spare parts issue is a “show stopper” for XD purchases. Unless or until parts become readily available, then I’d recommend not buying an XD and instead buying a HK USP or a Glock Model 21. If you get a Glock, you can have its grips re-contoured (or “reduced”) by gunsmiths like Mark Graham at Arizona Response Systems.

BTW, I would appreciate first-hand comments from SurvivalBlog on the HK USP and other polymer frame high capacity .45s. There are now a lot of makers offering them, including the S&W 99, and the Taurus 24/7. Steyr also plans to produce a polymer frame .45, but it will use a single column magazine. Perhaps even the “also ran” Ruger’s 8 round P97 bears mentioning.

Letter Re: The Psychology of Denial in the Information Age

Jim:
Good morning. I don’t know that I have seen any discussion on your blog on the psychology of denial–why folks aren’t more prepared. I acknowledge that it may not be the most vital topic, and that you are doing your part to get the word out, but I correspond to you on this topic in sheer frustration.
Let me be more specific. I have friends and family members who make serious money in their chosen professions, many of whom are in the finance sector. Yet, when I raise the barest reference to preparation and our fragile infrastructure, it’s like I just started speaking in five-thousand year old Greek. They have ample resources to buy peace of mind with supplies and equipment that’s a fraction of their annual income, but they don’t. The world will go on merrily. They’ll never be a TEOTWAWKI. Somehow, in their mind it’s good financial sense to spend thousands on all manner of insurance (life, car, health, business), but dare suggest that they put away even two weeks worth of food and water, and I’m labeled as “out there.” Amazingly, this culture of denial persists even after Hurricane Katrina. They watched on their televisions as the Golden Horde preyed upon itself and just died as government failed to come charging to the rescue. During that sad event, I commented to my youngest brother on the horrible tragedy. I said: “see little brother, not months, but only a few days and you’ve got Planet of the Apes, baby.” BTW – this not a slur on my part to the good folks of New Orleans. This quote was taken from Powers Booth playing a bomber captain in a 1990 made-for-television TEOTWAWKI movie titled “By Dawn’s Early Light.” (I recommend it), and he was referring to life on the ground when their plane ditched after the collapse. Perhaps seeing the devastation of Hurricane Katrina on TV made it illusory, the cold reality unfolding “live and in color” simply blended into the numbing TV mythos of movie magic. Either way, to this day, I am still trying to roll the Rock of Gibraltar uphill when it comes to convincing those I care about to cover their assets. I would be grateful for any advice on other methods to penetrate this shield of denial or even references to articles discussing the phenomenon so that I can send it to these guys.
Thank you, and stay well. – Bill H.

JWR Replies: In my experience, the best way to penetrate the shell of denial is to hand someone a useful pro-preparedness third party reference. For some reason, anything that is published in hard copy seems to carry intrinsic authority, or at least hold the cachet of “a published reference.” As general survival and preparedness references, I recommend Life after Doomsday by Bruce Clayton, and Tappan on Survival by Mel Tappan. My own books Rawles on Retreats and Relocation and SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog might also be useful. On food storage and survival cookery, I highly recommend Making the Best of Basics by James Talmage Stevens (available from www.mountainbrookfoods.com), and The Encyclopedia of Country Living by the late Carla Emery. My Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course is another useful reference that primarily deals with food storage. On firearms and self defense, I recommend Boston’s Gun Bible by Boston T. Party and Survival Guns by Mel Tappan.

Don’t overlook the usefulness of survivalist fiction. Quite often, people won’t take the time to read a non-fiction book, but they will sit down and read a novel. For this, I recommend novels like Lucifer’s Hammer by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, Wolf and Iron by Gordon Dickson, No Blade of Grass by John Christopher, and Some Will Not Die by Algis Budrys. And again at the risk of sounding like shameless self-promotion, I also recommend my own novel, Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse. For those that don’t have the patience to read a book, you can at least send them a link or the URL for SurvivalBlog. Be patient and persistent. Your friends and relatives that presently seem have their heads thrust firmly in the sand may come up to see some daylight if you expose them to enough pro-preparedness references.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Felix mentioned that the International Committee of the Red Cross/Red Crescent has made their new manual “First Aid in Armed Conflicts and Other Situations of Violence” available for free download, in PDF.

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A Peak Oil pundit responds to the recent piece in The New York Times about new oilfield yield boosting technologies.

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One of our frequent content contributors runs a part-time mail order biz, called Knife Brigade. Check out his great prices on Ka-Bar, Buck, Kershaw, and CRKT knives.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“That’s the issue that I’ve been exploring: How did the Republic turn into the Empire? That’s paralleled with: How did Anakin turn into Darth Vader? How does a good person go bad, and how does a democracy become a dictatorship? It isn’t that the Empire conquered the Republic, it’s that the Empire is the Republic.” – George Lucas

Note from JWR:

The high bid is now up to $360 in the current SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a brand new Schecter “Warthog” Electric Guitar. This is an awesome guitar that is decorated in a military aviation theme, from Schecter’s Tempest series. It has a $729 retail value. The auction ends at midnight tomorrow. (March 15th.) Just e-mail me your bid. Thanks!

Pop Goes The Bubble: The New Century Financial Corp. Debacle

The recent news that New Century Financial Corporation, the nation’s second-biggest subprime mortgage lender is about to declare bankruptcy didn’t come as a great surprise to me. I see it as a bellwether event. Lots of other sub-prime lenders are at risk. This is another piece of evidence that the grossly over-inflated real estate bubble, that up until now has been deflating gracefully, is about to absolutely implode. In coastal regions, residential real estate prices were bid up to unsustainable levels, fueled by low interest rates and legions of lenders that were willing to make loans to people that shouldn’t have been eligible to buy a car, much less a house. There are now millions of real estate “investors” (the folks that I call contrapreneurs) who are locked in to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs.) Many of these contrapreneurs bought second or even third homes on speculation. (“On spec”.) The “flipping” of houses was quite profitable in the rising real estate market circa 2002 to 2006. Any idiot could make money doing it. (“A rising tide raises all ships.”) Now the market has turned, and there are not enough buyers to absorb all of those spec houses. There are countless stories about houses that have languished on the market for many months, without a legitimate offer. Here is a link to one such story.

We are now witnessing a cascading effect. The first noticeable shift came when existing house sales and housing “starts” numbers began to fall, as interest rates edged upwards. The building contractors, most of them savvy individuals, knew when to get out when the getting was good. They slashed their prices to move their existing inventories, and they cut way back on new construction. Their “bargains” and incentives (one in Reno was giving away free Hummer H3s with each house sold) created a downward momentum in residential house prices. Seeing this, the “spec” buyers started dropping their prices “just to make sure” that their spec houses sold promptly. But a funny thing happened: Most of them didn’t sell, even at the lower asking prices. Recently, the specs were faced with a dilemma: “Should I cut my asking price even more, and sell the house at a loss, or try to find renters and hang on until the market bounces back?” Based on the continuing fall in prices, it is clear that a lot of them decided to take the loss, and just plain bail out. It is noteworthy that what had been most over-hearted markets like Phoenix, Arizona, coastal Florida, Las Vegas, Hawaii, and San Diego are seeing the steepest price declines. According to www.HousingBubbleBust.com, quoting the National Association of Realtor’s Q4 2006 report, “73 metro[politan] areas have shown a price decline. Sarasota is down 18%, Fort Myers 12% and Reno 9%. Other major markets with a decline are San Diego, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Pittsburg, Phoenix, Kansas City, Sacramento, Washington DC, Boston, Dallas, Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Providence, Miami and Denver”.

The next effects were jumps in the mortgage payment delinquency rates and later, in some regions, the mortgage default rates. Unable to make their mortgage payments, the contrapreneurs are now going into default in large numbers. But the current default figures will seem small once those millions of ARM loans get “reset” in the next year, at higher interest rates. (Estimates range from $265 billion to $1 trillion in home loans that are scheduled for “resets” in the next 12 months.) I call this the ARM-twisting effect. When the ARM rates jump two or three percentage points, it won’t be pretty. There will be hundreds of thousands of people that lose their homes. The current conjecture in financial circles is that there could soon be a full scale mortgage crisis in the U.S.

The bankers, in early panic mode, are presently putting more and more post-default houses on the market, at fire sale prices. They don’t want to get stuck with them. But in some markets like Phoenix and San Diego, those houses aren’t selling. There simply aren’t enough willing buyers. In many cities, it isn’t just “buyer’s market.” It is a dead market. There are precious few people that want to “invest” in what they rightfully perceive as a declining market. The few buyers out there are now bargain hunting. And they are not in any great hurry to buy. The upward ratcheting of house prices sen in the previous four years has been replaced by a not perceptible downward-ratcheting. So the buyers know that time is on their side.

The next effect was felt by real estate agents and brokers. Many of them are a now looking for new careers. I recently heard an interesting statistic: South Florida had more than 3,000 gainfully employed real estate agents at the peak of the buying frenzy. But now there are now only about 300. Next, title companies will have to lay off employees, as sales slow.

Where and when will all of this end? With prices a lot lower, and probably not until a full decade from now. I woudln’t be surprised to see prices (in real terms, adjusted for inflation) down 50% or more in the erstwhile “hot” market regions. As the house price down-ratcheting effect get more pronounced, many homeowners”will come to the realization that they are upside down in their mortgages. (Where the current market value of the house is less than their outstanding principal on their home loan.) What will they do? I predict that many of them will walk away. They will simply hand their banker the house keys, or just do what out British cousins charmingly call “a midnight flit.” (Abandoning their houses without a proper goodbye to their banker.) This is not unprecedented. The same thing happened in Texas in the late 1970s and early 1980s, following a down-turn in the oil industry. But this time it will happen from coast to coast.

The rippling effects of the real estate bust will be felt for many years. There certainly will be huge losses for lenders. The New Century collapse will probably be the first of many. Building contractors will go out of business. (The wise ones will likely switch to remodeling.) Three-quarters of the real estate agents in the country will be out of work or chronically under-employed. The ripples of the real estate implosion will also likely touch the bond market, the insurance industry, and the derivatives market.

Once prices have dropped 30%, renters will start pestering their landlords, asking for correspondingly lower rents. By just threatening to move out, they will probably get the rent concessions that they ask for. (No landlord will want to be stuck with an un-occupied rental house. The fear of a negative cash flow is a powerful thing)

And The Good News?

Those of us that are nearing retirement, or those that are considering moving to a retreat locale may see some good come from the real estate bust. You may find some real bargains, especially as the market nears its bottom. Just be sure that you have cash in pocket to take advantage of a bargain when it comes along.

More than a year ago, I posted a recommendation in SurvivalBlog that anyone who had firm plans to sell their house within 18 months should do so, post haste, and rent them back from the new owners. (Most likely by selling to a property management company.) Now that that the market has decidedly turned nationwide, that is probably no longer an option in many regions, but it it still worth a try. I also recommended that anyone with a second home, a spec house, a rental house, or a vacation home that was not viable as a survival retreat should dump them. I hope that people took that advice. The opportunity to get out of such real estate investments is now dwindling. If you can get out now, even if it means taking a small loss, I strongly encourage that you to do so.

Letter Re: The Psychology of Survival in TEOTWAWKI

Sir:
I have been trying to paint mental pictures of men, women, and children scouring the countryside for food and fuel, arriving/crashing through the gate to my property, intent on their own survival.
They are hungry, desperate, and in a panic state of mind. I have tried to picture myself shooting warning shots over their heads, hearing them scream and curse at me, and hopefully going away.
I have Dakota Alerts in place for early detection during the night. I had dogs, but they are shot or beaten to death early on in the nightmare scenario.
But the alarms keep going off, and I know that there is movement on my property, and they are close at hand. I pour some semi-auto [fire] out of a window into the darkness to scare them off, and they move on.
But it continues for weeks. The trucking of supplies to us from Mexico has taken much too long, as the main highway system is chaos, and the ports that remain functional have bogged down from a myriad of logistical problems. Canada is doing what it can for the Northern U.S., but law and order have vanished in my area.
Then the pounding on the doors begins, and with some shots and threats. Things have deteriorated to the point to where looters do not care if they are killed. They are miserable
and almost dead already. So now the killing begins, and they will certainly kill me if that is what it takes to get some food and supplies. The Mad Max movie has begun, but it is not theatrical.
If I am to survive, I must take drastic actions.
The psychology/mindset of survival is something I am coming to grips with. It is something so foreign to me, having lived in a wonderland of plenty for so long,
that it is shocking to the senses. It is warfare, but an x-rated dirty and disgusting picture of humanity at its most primitive. How does one imagine barbarians crashing down upon a once civilized culture, reducing the lifestyle to one of filth, starvation, horror, and blood. A ghastly life of violence and suffering and riot; catastrophic losses and degradation to the point of madness and murder. Seeing ones family members huddled together in fear and weeping. Digging pits for the bodies that were killed during the night, remembering their screams and moans, knowing that packs of wild dogs will be trying to dig them up the next night. I could go on, but won’t.
I think we can arm ourselves, and have a quite content attitude about how much storage food we have. But, there is the emotional aspect of survival that I am trying to deal with. Does your book ““Patriots”] help here? – Martin P.

JWR Replies: Yes, you will find that my novel “Patriots” is quite helpful in thinking through retreat security and some of the psychological aspects of TEOTWAWKI. In it, I describe some practical and tactical methods for retreat security in a “worst case”. In fact, there are some strategies and tactics presented in the novel that I’ve never seen presented elsewhere. In all of my writings, I have stressed the importance of relocating to a lightly-populated region that is well removed from major metropolitan regions. In the event of a full scale societal collapse, the nightmarish circumstances that you describe will be likely in the cities and in the suburbs, but they are thankfully far, far less likely out in the hinterboonies. In essence, fewer people means fewer problems.

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Si” mentioned that the US. Department of HHS has developed a Radiation Event Medical Management (REMM) web site, with some useful resources. Si says that the site features: “Lots of information on treating people exposed to radiation from sources such as nuclear weapons, dirty bombs, reactor accidents, etc.”

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“R.P.” spotted a real estate listing for a nice property in central Texas that might be of interest. R.P. says: “I think it has a lot of the requirements that you have stated for a good retreat.”

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RBS sent us this link: No Passport For Britons Refusing Mass Surveillance.