Notes from JWR:

Today we welcome our newest advertiser, Uncle Howard’s. They are a builder that specializes in barns, shops, combination house/shops and combination house/RV garages. Their designs maximize storage space, which is important for those that are preparedness-minded and have a lot of logistics to store. Their construction costs are very low. Be sure to visit their web site.

Special thanks to reader “RK” who very kindly sent his 10 Cent Challenge subscription payment in the form of a 1/10th-ounce American Eagle gold coin. That was very kind of you! Speaking of gold, I noticed that the spot price of gold briefly touched $975 per ounce before settling to $973.60 on Friday. Concurrently, the US Dollar Index sagged below 73.70. (When I last checked, it took $1.51 to buy one Euro!) Also on Friday, the DJIA lost 315 points (2.51%). The “Leap Day” Dow sell-off was in reaction to AIG’s huge 6.56% one day loss, blamed on, of course, subprime mortgages. CitiGroup lost 5.19% the same day. Be ready for more turbulence and downward pressure in these markets. If the Dow drops below 11,508 (its low point, in the past year), or if the USD Index drops below 72, there could be what my friend The Chartist Gnome calls “seemingly instantaneous negative implications.” Minimize your dollar exposure, folks!

I’m presently catching up on my backlog of correspondence. The following are some recent letters and e-mails:



Letter Re: Being Prepared for an Avian Influenza Outbreak

Sir,
Please pass on a reminder to people to prepare themselves with a plan and supplies to deal with for the inevitable event [of an Avian Influenza outbreak]. Begin by practicing impeccable agricultural hygiene and discouraging any visitation of persons near their barn yards, hen houses and migratory wildlife flocks of geese or ducks on or near their ponds, open water sources or feed sources. This is best done with a couple of good herding type dogs who don’t mind getting their feet wet in the ponds or on the property watering holes. Our chickens are free range, yet they are blocked from the access of the open water sources, and their supple mental food and calcium sources are kept away from access of migrating and indigenous species of birds. The dogs also help with poultry predatory losses from fox, coons and hawks. – KBF



Letter Re: NOAA Weather Spotter Training

Jim,
I recently attended a presentation by the National Weather Service (NWS) which was intended to educate volunteer weather spotters. The training is put on by NWS meteorologists, and is focused on the weather typical for your area. Throughout the night I felt like this information would be especially useful in light of a SHTF scenario, where regular weather alerts may not be available.
Worst case? It’s free, only takes a couple of hours, and it could put you in touch with other volunteers who might be more receptive to a preparedness mindset. To find out more about schedules and content, your visitors can go to the NWS web site and find their local NOAA branch. Each regional office sets its own calendar for training events, and they’re always looking for more volunteers. Midnight



Letter Re: The “Invention Nation” Documentary Television Series

Jim,
I don’t know if this has been posted here or not. I have finished watching a series on the Science Channel called “Invention Nation“. The show primarily feature inventors who are inventing ways to “go green”. Many of these inventions and ideas fit in perfectly with being self-sufficient. Some of the topics are; used cooking oil for diesel engines, solar power technology, passive solar for heating homes and water, bicycle generators, etc… The series will rerun starting in March and may be worth a look for the preparedness minded. See the Invention Nation web site. Thanks to you and your family for all you do. – Randy G.



Letter Re: The EconomicIndicators.gov Web Site

James,
It looks like the U.S. Department of Commerce Economic Indicators web site now will continue to operate and they are going to enhance the site to boot. Here is the recently updated notice from their web site:

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Economics and Statistics Administration (ESA) has decided to continue the economicindicators.gov web site. Featuring the economic releases from ESA’s Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the site was started by this Administration in 2002 to give greater awareness to these economic statistics. ESA initially planned to discontinue the service due to cost concerns but given the feedback ESA received, the decision has been made to continue the site and improve its functionality.

Just though you might like to know. – John W.



Letter Re: Sizing a Retreat AC Power Generator

Mr. Rawles:
In attempting to size an emergency generator for my home, I have run across some interesting questions that I hope you and/or your other readers will be able to help me with. I lived through the blizzards of the 1990s here in the southern West Virginia coal camps, and I will never forget us and all of our neighbors being without power and unable to get out of our own driveways for 23+ days in 1993.

It marked the very beginnings of my awakening to the necessity of being properly prepared. With that in mind, I am attempting to set my home up with the ability to keep a bare minimum level of electrical appliances running in the case of a long-term outage; namely 2 refrigerators w/ freezers, a chest freezer, and an upright freezer (all just a few years old, so fairly energy efficient).

I am gauging the power being used by these appliances using a Kill-A-Watt. And, honestly, I’m afraid that I am doing something wrong. My number seem awfully low.

The first test I ran was on my chest freezer; after two hours of measurement, the freezer had consumed just 0.05 KWH or 50 watts of power at 25 watts per hour. I was surprised, but not terribly because the lid was not opened during the span of the test.

Next, I tested the refrigerator in my kitchen. It is a an Energy Star compliant Whirlpool brand 25.55 cu. ft. model with water and ice in the door. As a result of the chest freezer coming in lower than I expected, I purposely skewed the refrigerator experiment with the hopes of over-estimating the true usage. To that end, I was sure to be a bad boy and do things such as holding the door open and staring in like a goober for five minutes. I also refilled the dog’s water bowl from the door (forcing the pump into action) and virtually emptied the ice bin as crushed ice through the door (a big cup of ice water is yum!) to force the ice maker to have to run and make more. But, even with all that, my two hour test yielded a cumulative KWH usage of just 0.13. A measly 130 watts at 65 watts per hour.

Researching this online, I’m finding sites that estimate the typical household fridge uses between 150-250 watts per hour with peaks upward of 700+ watts. Am I doing really well on efficiency or am I missing something? I’ll wait to hear back before I run the remaining tests. Thanks! – JSC



Letter Re: Lessons from Brazil, Circa the Late 1990s

James,
I was chatting with a friend of mine who lives in Sao Paulo, Brazil and we got to talking about their economy. What really caught my attention was what life was like about the time they went their economic collapse, I think he said around 1998.

Brazil had several years of increasing inflation and finally reached 50% per month! At that rate people were paid weekly instead of monthly and everyone would convert paychecks to hard goods and consumables. I told him there would be riots in the streets and marches on the White House if we ever had 50% per month inflation. He replied the Brazilians would complain but pretty much accept whatever came along.

Finally when inflation was so bad the president called in a cousin of his who was an economics professor and she recommended a drastic measure to save the government. One day it was announced that all banks accounts would be limited to $50 and all other funds would be “loaned” to the government. Can you imagine having this happen in the US ?! Fortunately his father was a small business owner and sensed something bad coming down, so days before the bank confiscations he had incrementally withdrawn his life savings of $60,000. The mother was frantic because they could lose 50% – 60% every month the cash was not earning interest in the bank. A few days later and most people lost all their cash while this father was sitting pretty, comparatively. My friend and his family survived fairly well. A friend of theirs had just sold his business and left all the proceeds, about $150,000 in the bank! He was wiped out and several days later committed suicide.

Sao Paulo is a densely populated city of about 15 million so it is amazing there was not widespread rioting, looting and social deconstruction. Supposedly the saving grace was that jobs were not slashed so everyone just picked up the pieces after the confiscation and moved ahead with their next paycheck.

Lessons to consider:
* Governments can act swiftly and unpredictably, and usually to the detriment of the individual
* Don’t keep the majority of your savings in any form of bank account. Stock funds are a bit safer but would have been next in line.
* Cash on hand, even evaporating with inflation, is a must. Keep a good amount of cash on hand to get through the initial shocks.
* Material goods are the king of survival. In Brazil wage earners immediately converted paychecks to material goods. They are the only thing that holds value. Gold was not in widespread use in the city except for the shadier parts of town. You did not want to be walking around Sao Paulo with any amount of cash or gold.
* Like in the stories of Argentina, urban life can continue in a SHTF situation, but you should still be prepared. I don’t doubt that Brazilians outside the city were much less impacted and already much more reliant on natural resources and tools than the average city dweller. – JB in Oregon



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Daniel K. recommended an essay about dependence on grid power, posted over at the Jeff Rense site: Worst Drug On Earth Stops In 8 Milliseconds

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Freddie Mac posts $2.5 Billion Loss in Fourth Quarter of 2007

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I just heard that “The Armchair Survivalist” weekly Internet radio show is expanding to shortwave, on WWCR, starting tonight. Kurt covers some interesting topics and he has some great guests. He also still operates Survival Enterprises (that you may remember as a former SurvivalBlog advertiser). They sell a variety of storage foods and gear at competitive prices. Check out Kurt’s web pages, and listen in.

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Automated killer robots ‘threat to humanity’



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I practice charity regularly. I believe in sharing. But when government takes our money by force and gives it to others, that’s not sharing.” – John Stossel



Note from JWR:

After more than 10 years of searching, it now appears that a movie production company wants to buy my “Pulling Through” screenplay. I hope to be posting more news about this development sometime in the next two weeks.Stay tuned.



Letter Re: How/Where Can I Learn About Fiber Arts?

Dear Memsahib:

In your biography, I noticed that you wrote: “I also have taught Fiber Arts. I can shear a sheep, angora goat, or angora rabbit and wash, card, dye, spin, knit, weave, (and/or felt) the wool into socks, mittens, a hat, scarf, or a sweater.”

Speaking for those who happen to have a small herd of Angora goats, but no practical knowledge of shearing or weaving/knitting, to say nothing about “wash – card – dye – spin,” are there any books you can recommend? Or perhaps, alternatively, a DVD? Thanks, – Pete M.

The Memsahib Replies: I think hands-on learning is so much better than a book or DVD for learning fiber art skills. These are truly “hands-on” tactile skills.

I would recommend you look for a Fiber Guild in your area. These are groups (mostly women) who get together to learn spinning, knitting, felting, weaving, etc. Depending on the guild, they may sponsor workshops with a fee to attend, or there may be informal lessons at the meetings. You may also find buyers for your mohair (the fleece of angora goats) as well as your kids (baby goats, not your children) at the guild meetings.

The “Spin Off” magazine web site has a link to a directory of fiber guilds.

Another great resource is your local yarn shop. Our local yarn shop owner offers classes on knitting and crochet for a nominal cost. She also has spinning and felting teachers come in to give workshops several times a year. Maybe your local yarn shop owner can hook you up. (Pardon the pun.)



Two Letters Re: Are Simultaneous Inflation and Deflation Possible?

Jim,
We are clearly experiencing deflation, as bad debt and derivatives unwind. At the same time there appears to be massive inflation by the Fed, or else where did the three Trillion for Iraq come from?

The only “X factor” now is the money multiplier. Reserve requirements are now [effectively] zero. A good video (Flash required). But now eliminate the reserve component, [and its] Zimbabwe dollars ahoy.

Here is some scary stuff, directly from the Fed.

And here is an explanation similar to what I had wanted to write about the “Its the Economy Stupid” with Clinton and Greenspan – David in Israel

Dear Jim:
Your piece “Are Simultaneous Inflation and Deflation Possible?” was a great posting on the economic/financial storm brewing. As the “perfect storm” is just getting rolling, this is a good time for those who have not read much Austrian economics to get an understanding of what is likely to hit and why. I feel sorry for folks who have not been given the opportunity to get up to speed on Austrian economics – they are flying blind into the storm (and will get hurt, badly).

1. Robert Ringer has a simplified and easy to read introduction as to what money really is and how it got so corrupted – a great place to start,

2. A super one page distillation of the current problems.

3. After being a paid subscriber to to Gary North for many years, reading him is mandatory, in my opinion. He was very wrong on Y2K, but since then has called the top of the stock market mania (to the month!), begged subscribers to buy gold at $300, and gave years of advance warning of the housing bubble.
Get a fee subscription his Reality Check newsletter. I hope that will convince you to sign on for the full web site subscription. OBTW, I have no $ interest here – just a paid subscriber with a meager hope that if a critical mass of folks get exposed to more moral and economic sense it might help to turn this country around after the crash.
Gary North is a long term bull on gold and also wise enough to look at contrary information. For example, “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke has actually kept a lid on M1 monetary inflation, (even as he lowers interest rates). So just possibly, we’ll see a tight money recession and lower gold prices in the short run, before the (almost) inevitable long term inflation.3. For a real comprehensive education, see the Mises Institute. Here is a sample reading list. Regards, – OSOM



Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update

Retreat Caretakers, the Good, Bad and the Ugly
Recently I had the honor of reviewing a spectacular working retreat somewhere in Idaho. The owner, whom resides out of state, was present to give me a tour over the grounds covering hundreds of acres filled with multiple springs, ponds and varied terrain that would leave most of the readers here coveting thy neighbors retreat. I suppose I’m guilty as I write this update as well. Thank God for His grace.
The intention of this weeks update is to briefly explore the idea of retaining a full time caretaker at one’s retreat, the pro’s and of course the cons of such an undertaking and the objective of such a decision.
On the surface most, including myself, hail to an astounding NO, when the thought comes to having another person living at their retreat. What about OPSEC? Where am “I” going to stay if someone is in “my” house? What if they tell all their friends? What if….? Questions abound so let’s explore some of these on a purely logical basis, never mind someone is keeping your toilet seat warm in the winter.
First, what is a caretaker and when would one be needed? Well, generally caretakers are just that, they would be required to oversee and maintain the property in your absence and then be of utmost service while you were on site. From some quick research it is generally accepted that the caretaker lives in the home and then retires to a guest house while you are there (this could be a small apartment or a trailer on the property). There are some properties that require only seasonal attention, usually in the winter and thus caretakers may change as often as the season, making for possible problematic OPSEC issues. The best reason I can see to employ a full time caretaker is that you know your supplies and gear is safe, either they know about it and are trusted to help PM it, inventory it and rotate it or they simply are ignorant to the walls being hollow. Either way, your stomach is ulcer free and you can live your life without switching on your expensive retreat-o-cam every morning wondering if your gear is now at the local flea market.
What can a caretaker actually ‘do’ for an absentee owner? If the property is large enough there is a lot of check items that may be overlooked. For starters, like the property I reviewed there will be major daily, weekly and quarterly chores, especially in the spring and summer like:
1. Check, adjust and perform PM on the Solar/PV/hydro systems
2. Tend to animals that you want firmly in place should the retreat be activated (you won’t be able to buy them when TSHTF)
3. Tend to the garden daily and canning activities at harvest time
4. Check and rotate food storage
5. Walk the perimeter fence line and fire break attending to issues
6. Brush clean up for fire season
7. Walking trail maintenance
8. LP/OP checks (Have the critters taken a hold?)
9. Firewood cutting (maintain three years worth)

Any roads including the driveway will need to be maintained, especially in winter and after any significant storms in the summer. If there are ponds on the property who will make sure the stocked fish have a viable environment to thrive for that extra protein should food run low someday? A good caretaker also makes sure that neighborly relationships are intact and that as you approach your retreat after a major event that the odd’s are in your favor that the retreat has been well protected in your absence its’ ready to go when you arrive. The list goes on and on and is unique to each specific retreat.
I guess a good way to sum up the benefits of having a caretaker is like that ol’ Motel 6 commercial where the narrator says at the end “we’ll leave the light on for you”. A comforting feeling for sure.
What are the pitfalls of having a caretaker? I suppose even listing them here would be a waste of words as we all can think of many issues that can become major problems like theft and a total destruction of OPSEC. Those would be the worst of the worst. Should a caretaker be hired, your storage should be split into two places. The first should be the bulk of your supplies, say 75% into a known bunker that can be managed by the caretaker. The other 25% needs to be placed in a secure unknown bunker ‘just in case’, since even the most trusted person can innocently betray’ their friend. One loose word or errant comment can be an issue.
If anyone has ever seen or owned a rental property that went vacant for more than a few months then it should be obvious that homes and surrounding property can become neglected and unmanageable very quickly. A meticulous and trusted caretaker can be a blessing.
How much to pay a caretaker? Normally, in high scale urban environment caretakers (whom some are required to be certified chefs and nanny’s) are paid a salary and benefits. However, this is not the case for rural caretaking positions. Most times pay is a barter of some kind such as free room and a small stipend for duties around the retreat. The owner I spoke with had adjusted his arrangement with his caretakers over several years. In the beginning the caretakers rent was a sum and then it was worked off on an hourly rate, but this was an issue because in the summer the owner had to pay out of pocket not only the monthly maintenance tab but hours back to the caretaker since in the summer there were many projects to do. In the winter the caretaker owed the owner money since there was little to do on the retreat and this arrangement quickly was replaced with a much simpler one calling for no rent and no minimum hours, just a detailed checklist of items that needed to be completed as the seasons changed.
Another issue that roars its’ head is that caretakers normally run a cycle and over a period of time either get burned out, become complacent (or think its’ their retreat), or just simply want to move on. In the beginning they will work like Siberian sled dogs and after a time they’ll work like a seasoned union worker (no offense of course, I was a union worker years back and I knew how to take a break too!). This can be elevated by having a clear and concise contract that lays out duties owed by both parties and remedies for all.
The caretaker does not have to part of your ‘group’. There are plenty of very trustworthy individuals and families that can be ignorant to what the properties real intended purpose is so as to keep your OPSEC in place. Just remember, should a perilous situation arise it is your duty to ask them to stay and if they so choose, to keep on hand enough supplies to take care of them for an extended period of time. If you think that upon retreat activation you’ll just send them on their way, maybe you ought to re-examine your own motives and be wary, since the possibility of them returning to harm you will be very high. On the flip side, maybe a member of your ‘group’ is in a position that they can take the position to make up for any shortfalls in their capital calls to purchase the property. There are many ways to find and retain a caretaker, be very discerning and choose carefully.
So folks, either while shopping for your retreat or once you’ve bought one; consider the merits of a caretaker. After seeing first hand how a caretaker can help a retreat owner the bottom line is that if one selects their caretaker carefully the benefits far outweigh the risks. God Bless, – TS in Idaho



Odds ‘n Sods:

I recently heard from three different storage food vendors that they are getting deluged with orders. Apparently, the recent economic news and reports of grain shortages have worked together to cause people to suddenly want to lay in a supply of long term storage food. Both Mountain House and Alpen Aire now have orders backed up 45 to 60 days. Many storage food vendors have run out of stock, so expect to wait at least two months for shipment. I only expect the order backlogs to increase in coming months, so don’t dawdle. Prices are also likely to increase, since most of the packaging companies are changing prices “as needed” (based on cost increases) rather than the traditional annual price list updates. OBTW, I heard from Ready Made Resources that they still have some 6-can cases of Mountain House Freeze dried foods (with a 30+ year shelf life) in stock, and for just the next few weeks they are offering SurvivalBlog readers free shipping in the continental US on selected items. These include Hearty Beef Stew (case price: $180, free shipping) and either Spaghetti and Meat Sauce or Chicken and Rice (case price: $122, free shipping). They also sell the Alpen Aire SuperPak System, with enough food for two people for one year (or one person for two years). This is 1,200 pounds of freeze dried food for $5,825, (1% discount for paying by check. The normal retail is $6995!) Best of all, they are offering free shipping, which is a savings of around $735, depending on the shipping destination. For the SuperPak, allow 6 weeks for delivery.

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Eric flagged this: ‘Panic’ wheat buying across the US., and SF in Hawaii sent this: Food shortages loom as wheat crop shrinks and prices rise. Down to just a 10 week supply? It is a good thing that most SurvivalBlog readers stocked up on wheat more than a year ago, back when it was still relatively inexpensive.

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RBS sent this example of Nanny State stupidity: Guns Melted for Peace. For peace? Back in 1940, Mr. Haywood’s recent ancestors would probably have been thrilled to own any gun, since the country was in imminent risk of foreign invasion. What a difference a couple of generations of the soft life makes. OBTW, did those buffoons realize that the gun in the picture appears to be a very rare limited-production handmade Krausewerk Collectibles stainless steel .45 Luger, currently worth more than $100,000? Seeing it get the abrasive cut-off wheel treatment in the second photo was sickening. What a waste! Obviously, the Nanny State has run amok. OBTW, the only thing worse than a Nanny State is a Surveillance Nanny State. (The UK now has the highest number of CCTV cameras per capita in the world.) My advice to SurvivalBlog readers in the UK who value their freedom: Take the gap!

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Richard C. sent a link to an interesting do-it-yourself project: IR LEDs for Dazzling Closed Circuit Television Cameras