Odds ‘n Sods:

Nuclear alert by ex-head of MI5: The article begins: “More than 100 suspects are awaiting trial in British courts for terrorist offences – a figure unprecedented in modern criminal history – Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the former spy chief, has revealed. Dame Eliza: ‘They may attempt a chemical, biological, radiological or even nuclear attack’ Britain is a centre of intense plotting and faces a terrorist threat of ‘unprecedented scale, ambition and ruthlessness’. In a stark warning for the future, Dame Eliza added: ‘It remains a very real possibility that they may, sometime, somewhere attempt a chemical biological, radiological or even nuclear attack’.”

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From Moneyweb (by way of SHTF Daily): Can the South African Rand and Save Zimbabwe? Also, from the AP wire: Zimbabwe’s inflation hits 4,500 percent

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StealthNeighbor came across The Institute for Business and Home Safety web site. His comment: “[This site] has some interesting info / data / floor plans / et cetera. on natural (versus manmade) disasters and lots of good info on reinforcing your home against hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, ice storms, wind damage, etc. Much of the info is directly applicable to a TEOTWAWKI situation — at any level — and it might be of interest (and aid) to your blog readers for retreat-building or reinforcing the “bug-in location…”



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I hope we have once again reminded people that man is not free unless government is limited. There’s a clear cause and effect here that is as neat and predictable as a law of physics: as government expands, liberty contracts.” – Ronald Wilson Reagan



Notes from JWR:

An item that was too important to bury down in the Odd ‘n Sods… Billy G. sent us this: Iodine about to be regulated in US. Any solution over 2% will be restricted as “precursors” for illicit drug manufacture. Billy’s comment: “Can nuke pills [potassium iodate] be far behind? I’m stocking up on Iodine crystals while I can.” I strongly encourage readers to buy their “lifetime supply” of Polar Pure water purifier, as soon as possible. (Two or three bottles per family member should be about right.) Polar Pure, Betadine, and Potassium Iodate (KI) are all available from Ready Made Resources. OBTW, I’m not sure if the sale of Betadine will be restricted, since it has its iodine ingredient listed as “10% Povidone Iodine = 1% Available Iodine.” So it might be wise to stock up on Betadine, as well. (Povidone is a polymerized “iodophore” designed for slow release. Effectively it is only 1% iodine, but you know how bureaucrats operate. They may see the “10%” and start caterwauling.)

Today we present another article for Round 11 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $2,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. I will again be sending out a few complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots” as “honorable mention” awards. Round 11 ends on July 31st. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.



Survival Labor and Delivery, by John O. MD

The return of home delivery is a fact that most of the survivalist community needs to face, and is a topic I have seen relatively little written about. My own experience derives from 10 years experience as an Emergency Physician, delivering 3-4 infants a year in situations either where the woman has had no prenatal care whatsoever and arrives in our emergency room (ER) [in] crowning [condition]; or as a private patient upstairs who progresses so quickly that her private obstetrician (OB) can’t make it to the hospital in time. This has skewed my experience toward “normal” presentations where the baby is in normal position (not breach), as those tend to progress slowly enough for the OB to get involved. That said, “normal” delivery with minor complications is the area where preparation can make a big difference. Before we start, I believe that as a community, we need to accept the fact that the rates of death for both mother and infant are going to rise significantly if TSHTF. No amount of preparation is going to allow someone to do a c-section on their kitchen table and even breach presentations may be more than a layman can expect to handle.
The services of a good midwife would be invaluable, and the addition of a text such as “Heart and Hands” by Elizabeth Davis may be a wise addition to your stores as a second best choice. My goal is to help you keep a “good” delivery from going bad and preventing complications. It should go without saying that this information is for educational/survival purposes only, and I not suggesting a specific course of care. Fortunately, nature really does run its course in most cases, and there is a reason why one of the first procedures you get to do in Med. School is to “play catch” in labor and deliver (L&D) because there is so little to screw up under normal conditions.
Labor can be divided into a first phase — a time when the cervix is thinning out and slowly dilating to from a canal roughly the diameter of pencil up to about 10 cm—and a second phase when the pushing begins and the mother actually pushes the baby out. The 1st phase is often divided into an early period, where the cervix is less than 4cm and contractions are relatively mild and spaced farther apart (7-8 min), as well as a late phase when the contractions are much harder and closer together. The early phase is pretty variable in length varying from a maybe two hours in multiparous women (lots of previous pregnancies) to as much as 24 hours in prima gravis (1st pregnancy). Late 1st phase tend to be more regular with the average woman dilating about 1 cm. per hour. Woman will usually want to get up out of bed, especially in the late phase. Encourage it, laying in a bed during labor is a bad habit that is really only necessary in hospitals due to the use of epidurals and intravenous (IV) narcotics. I have found that squatting really does help speed the progression as well as minimizing labor pains. You will note in the hospital that a woman’s cervix is checked frequently, I would urge strongly against this practice at home. In the hospital setting, a woman who is not progressing may get a dosage of the labor hormone pitocin [(“pit”)], or may even go for a caesarian sections, neither of which you will be doing at home. In addition, they have a limitless supply of sterile gloves, so the risk of introducing infection into the birth canal is relatively low. In home deliveries where labor without pitocin tends to take longer, infection prevention is crucial. You will have a pretty good idea how things are progressing just by monitoring the frequency of contractions and the look on her face. Speaking of infection, now would be good time to discuss an infection called Group B strep. Group B Strep (GBS) is a bacteria that roughly 30% of woman carry in their birth canal. While passing through the canal about 60% of children will be colonized if the mom has it. Even in modern medicine, about 1 in 200 will develop severe complications such as pneumonia, meningitis or sepsis (blood poisoning). All woman are currently screened at about 37 weeks and treated with IV antibiotics prior to beginning labor. This has been shown pretty conclusively to reduce the amount of GBS in the canal, lowering the rates of colonization of babies. In addition, penicillin based antibiotics readily cross the placenta and afford the baby some protection even if he is colonized.
Since I don’t imagine people will be getting screened for GBS in the future, I would recommend every woman start taking an antibiotic about 10-14 days prior to their due date. While IV antibiotics are currently recommended, oral where used pretty regularly until about 10 years ago. Ampicillin is probably best, any -cillin or cephalosporin (things that start with “ceph or cef” in their name such as Cephalexin (Keflex), Ceftin, Cefazolin, Rocephin, etc.) are good. -Mycin based antibiotics could probably be used in a pinch or for seriously penicillin allergic patients. DO NOT use -cyclines or anything with -floxin in the generic name as these are both toxic to young children.
After getting through the 1st phase, the woman will begin to feel the need to push or the sensation of needing to have a bowel movement from the baby’s head pushing on the pelvis and bowel. I generally recommend getting back in bed at this point, though some midwives keep them up even now. At this point clean the entire pelvic area with either betadine, iodine, or high proof alcohol, including maybe 1/2-1 in. inside the vagina itself. Begin working on stretching the back wall of the vagina (also known to some as the taint) using KY jelly or oil. Take the area at about 7o’clock and 5’oclock as looking at the vagina between your thumbs and forefingers and stretch sideways and outward. Start gently but work up in force. Trust me, no amount of force you apply is going to equal the stretching from the head real soon. As the child begins to crown, assuming that you have clean or sterile gloves, work your fingers up around the neck to make sure the cord isn’t wrapped around it. If it is, you can usually pull on the stretchy cord while pushing the head slightly back in to pull the cord up over the face and head to untangle it. If you don’t have really clean hands, wait a little longer until the face is partly out, though this tends to increase the tension on the cord making it harder to get off. Unreduced nucal cords [umbilical cords wrapped around the neck] are a major source of death or brain damage in “normal” deliveries due to strangulation as they tighten, so don’t forget to check. Finally the face will be out and the child will normally stick at the shoulders, as this is the widest point on the child. Take this time to suction the babies nose and mouth pretty thoroughly. I would highly recommend getting several blue bulb syringes over the counter now for just such a situation. If you note a greenish slime (meconium) on the baby or in his mouth, this means he has had a bowel movement due to the stress of labor, or because of the above mentioned nucal cord. It is very important to get this out of the throat and nose now, because once he comes out the rest of the way and takes his first breath, he will suck this junk down into his lungs. A small amount of previously boiled water may help to make it runnier and easier to suction. The meconium itself is sterile, and is no cause for alarm, other than the risk of aspirating it. Passing the shoulder is a little more difficult. Most of the time one can reach up and grasp the shoulders, pushing the trunk down to deliver the front shoulder, then up to deliver the back one. Sometimes an assistant can put pressure over the bladder while flexing the leg up into the air to help push the shoulder down to get it to pass under the pelvic bone. One can do a Google search on “McRoberts maneuver” for a more detailed and complex version. Do not tug down on the head itself, as it can tear the nerves going into the arm from the neck. Also, do not push down on the top of the uterus, as this can cause some serious problems as well. In a truly desperate situation, the baby’s collar bone can be broken to cause the shoulder to collapse some. While it sounds horrible, they heal pretty readily, and is something I’ve had to do even in the hospital setting once or twice. One puts one palm over the breast bone of the baby and the other behind the shoulder of the collar bone to break, then one presses with both thumbs in the center of the clavicle with a force slightly greater than breaking a turkey wishbone. You will definitely feel the “pop”. It is important to note that after the first shoulder delivers, the baby pretty much wants to pop right out. Try to get the mom to breathe through her nose and stop pushing while you apply pressure back in, so that the baby slides out in a controlled fashion. Letting it slide out uncontrolled will greatly increase the risk of a tear to the mom.
After the baby passes, Lower him below the level of the birth canal to help his blood flow out of the placenta and back into his body. After about maybe 30 seconds clamp the cord with whatever you have (boiled clothespins?). Clamp above and below where you intend to cut, which is usually about 1-1/2 inches from the baby’s belly. Cut with a sterilized blade, as this is a major source of infection in the third world. Keep the clamp on the baby for about a day or two until the vessels scar down. Clean baby with a dry cloth to remove all the slime and immediately wrap in a warm blanket, as babies have a hard time controlling their body temps initially. You can stimulate the baby if he isn’t crying by rubbing his breast bone with your knuckle using moderate force or by a light pinch. Try to get the baby to breast-feed right away, as it will help the mom’s uterus collapse down and minimize bleeding. Massage her belly, pressing down on her uterus at a moderate force (enough to be somewhat uncomfortable). After the uterus has contracted the placenta will separate from the uterus. After separation, apply gentle traction to end of the placenta to get it to pass, though too much force can cause the placenta to tear and leave behind a piece that can be a source for later infection. [The Memsahib Adds: Traction too early, when the placenta is still attached can cause an internal hemorrhage and the mother to bleed to death!] Ibuprofen works well to help with postpartum soreness and residual contraction pain. Four 200mg tablets will usually do the trick. As an aside, try to avoid aspirin products because they thin the blood and will increase bleeding, especially if taken before the actual delivery. I have not addressed breach births, as whole chapters can be written on the topic. One relatively simple procedure that can be tried before labor starts if the head is felt to be up instead of down is called external cephalic version. There are some risks, such as an early water breakage, but is probably better to try to fix the problem early, rather than waiting until the baby has entered the birth canal. Hopes this helps, hope no one ever has to use it. Once again, this for informational/education purposes, and is not a substitute for proper medical care.



Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu is Still a Major Threat

JWR,
I am currently working on the construction of a pandemic flu vaccine facility (way too far away from my intended retreat locale, but I need to be able to afford my retreat 🙂 and I have a couple insights that most people and some medical folks might not have.
First, the new cell culture flu vaccine facilities will have the ability to adapt to mutating strains during production – within reason, and in-process flu vaccine production can either be stopped, or the pandemic vaccine added to the regular vaccine. That is something that is not possible with even the normal flu vaccines when they are made today from eggs … unless they can magically pull 300,000,000 to 6 billion eggs from the grocery store shelves at moments notice. A couple years back there was a big stink about the flu companies and the CDC ‘guessing’ the wrong strain; the cell culture facilities should be able to switch relatively quickly to a new vaccine for a new strain. But, it will still take months from identification to the first mass-produced vial of vaccine to be available (its a relatively straight forward process to anyone who understands biopharm, but it just takes time to go through all the steps).
Second, it takes a while to build a vaccine facility. With a 3-5 year mutation rate, and the world currently being at stage 3 of the 6 stages of the standard progression of a pandemic (per World Health Organization (WHO)), it really is a race at this point. If the new ones aren’t online, regular facilities could be probably be used if the timing is just right for identification prior to production of normal flu batches. Even a pandemic flu vaccine that doesn’t completely match a further mutated pandemic strain may have enough antigens present to provide a touch of resistance to give more people a better chance. Or at least be a nice placebo so the people in charge can keep a little bit of calm by injecting sheeple with some worthless vaccine until a “booster” shot can be developed a few months later. If someone jabs something into your arm, accept it and thank them, but definitely don’t drop your guard: keep your masks on and keep friction washing those hands (i.e., don’t rely on ‘hand sanitizers)!!! People still get the flu after vaccinations today, and I can’t imagine that changing with a pandemic strain.
Third, all the normal flu precautions still apply as other writers have said previously: washing hands, face masks, etc. One thing that I can say that might air in your readers home preparations: The thermal lethality of the flu virus (at least H5N1) is about the same as standard flu. It starts to “die” at about 60 degrees C … so the simple boiling of contaminated sheets/towels/etc. for 5 minutes will pretty much inactivate of the virus (us biopharm folks go ‘a bit’ further than this in our equipment preps, but even we recognize the absurdity of what we do).
For survival purposes, a good autoclave to have sitting around the house is a 20-quart or greater, 15-pound pressure cooker/canner). Buy a cheaper aluminum one since it typically won’t come in direct contact with food. When bacteria or viruses are a concern (botulism, staph, or anything but a couple laboratory created freaks tougher than /thermopolis/), 20 minutes under 15 pound steam (atmospheric pressure + 15 pounds) will kill everything present (molds, bacteria, virii, protozoas, lice, mutant zombie gophers) whether its surgical equipment, needles, thread for sutures, or anything that you really want to sterilize. Some pressure cookers are multi-select (5, 10, or 15 pounds), but they all typically operate at 15 pounds. Plus, a good canner/pressure cooker is still required to store away next winters’ food supply.
When sterility (i.e., absolute of death of all things creepy) is required, boiling is not sufficient. On television , you see people boiling a pocket knife before they cut out a bullet, um, no. Twenty minutes in a pressure cooker is the equivalent of something like a day or two of boiling at 100C to obtain the same ‘sterility’ (I have all the equations, but I’m not motivated enough to do the absurd calculation); and if you’re at high altitude, now you’re looking at sub-100 temperatures when boiling. People can boil ‘living water’ and make it safe enough for drinking, because the simple reduction in number of bugs is typically sufficient to allow your immune system to stop the threat, or to keep the populations low enough so they are passed through your system before toxin levels grow to dangerous or even perceived levels. Most water filters (per FDA requirements) only need to hit 99.9x% reductions in various organisms which is perfectly fine for drinking and eating. But for field surgeries, go for full sterility.
Buy a smaller stainless steel pressure cooker for anything that comes in direct contact with the food you actually intend to eat (such as that roast from the 12 year old breeding bull that you finally had to butcher). I believe in the evil of too much aluminum in one’s diet; regardless of what the aluminum industry and the politicians who receive campaign contributions from the aluminum products producers tell us.
Of course, my overall confidence: I have full set of duplicate survival gear/supplies stowed away in a storage facility a couple miles from my work site on the other side of the country. And I believe that its going to be a long walk home someday. I hope The Great Maker protects us all . – NotDave



Odds ‘n Sods:

More on the unfolding derivatives debacle: The $300 Trillion Time Bomb

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Mark sent us this news article link: Mass Zimbabwe arrests over prices. Mark’s comment: “Note that today [in Zimbabwe] a single banana cost more than a four bedroom house did in 2000.”

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David V. recommended this history article from Alaska that has a some applicability to retreat provisioning: Black River Trapper: Fred Thomas

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From Gold-Eagle.com, Gary Dorsch, Editor of Global Money Trends (by way of SHTF Daily): Global Exodus From The US Dollar In Motion. The article includes this alarming statistic: “Since the Bernanke Fed discontinued the decades-old reporting of the broad M3 money supply in March of 2006, the growth rate of M3 has accelerated from an 8% rate to a sizzling 13.7% clip, its fastest in more than three decades. The Bernanke Fed is preventing borrowing rates from rising at a time of explosive loan demand for US corporate mergers and takeovers, by rapidly increasing the US money supply.”



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“How rare is gold? If you could gather together all the gold mined in recorded history, melt it down, and pour it into one giant cube, it would measure only about eighteen yards across! That’s all the gold owned by every government on earth, plus all the gold in private hands, all the gold in rings, necklaces, chains, and gold art. That’s all the gold used in tooth fillings, in electronics, in coins and bars. It’s everything that exists above ground now, or since man learned to extract the metal from the earth. All of it can fit into one block the size of a single house. It would weigh about 91,000 tons – less than the amount of steel made around the world in an hour. That’s rare.” – Daniel M. Kehrer





CDO PIK: Satisfaction Guaranteed or Double Your Trash Back

When I attended the U.S. Army Northern Warfare School back in 1980, I was amused to see that all of the trash dumpsters at Fort Greeley, Alaska were stenciled with “Satisfaction Guaranteed or Double Your Trash Back”. I was reminded of this slogan the other day when I was doing some reading about the unfolding derivatives fiasco. I’ll get back to the quip about trash near the end of this blog entry.

Let me start with some background: Just like in the traditional bond world, with Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) it is always the holder of the highest rated (“senior”) paper that gets paid first. Each grade level, “class”, “slice” or “tranche” has its own risk level. Starting from the bottom, the lowest level tranche and then moderate risk “mezzanines” have to successively support the more senior tranches. The very lowest level tranches (called “junk” or even “toxic waste” in the bond world) are the riskiest. In a default situation, those investors holding paper in the lower level tranches will probably get nothing, or perhaps 5 cents on the dollar if they are lucky.

Now here is where it gets interesting: Some of the folks that have established the tranche ratings for CDOs for the past few years have played a little fast and loose with their terminology, effectively over-rating them. A lot of “B” rated CDO paper really should have been rated “BB”, or even “BBB”. Indirectly, this has made the investments even riskier, because lower rated tranches have higher margin (“leverage”) requirements. When an investment goes bad, the degree of risk is directly proportional to the amount leverage employed. Highly leveraged investments can “go south” in spectacular ways. It isn’t unusual in the CDO world for some tranches to\ use 25-to-1 or even 30-to-1 leverage.

A recent Financial Times article titled “Credit crisis to worsen as banks cut and run” noted that as public scrutiny has increased, the margin requirements for various CDOs tranches are suddenly getting more stringent. The article mentions:
“The Bear Stearns hedge funds were big holders of these instruments and the news two weeks ago that the funds were in serious trouble has led to much greater concern about the valuation of CDOs of ABS [asset-backed securities] held by other funds.
According to bankers and hedge funds involved in these and similar markets, this has led investment banks to begin reassessing their exposure to funds that are investing in ABS and CDOs of ABS with borrowed money.
Matt King, analyst at Citigroup, has estimated that funds invested in CDOs of ABS are likely to see some significant increases in the amount of margin they are required to post against their investments.
This “margin” in simple terms governs the amount of leverage, or borrowed money, they can use in their investments.
For example, Mr King expects that for the safest AAA-rated slices of these deals, margin requirements would rise from about 2-4 per cent now to nearer 8-10 per cent.
At the other end of the scale, the riskiest equity tranches would see margin rates increase from 50-100 per cent, which is to say banks will not lend to funds investing in these slices of risk.
“Over the near term, the biggest risk is probably that of forced selling driven by potential margin calls or investor redemptions,” Mr King says.
“We argue that this is likely to be a big problem only for a small number of people, but that its full effects may not yet have been seen.”

In reaction to this article, Yves Smith, co-editor of the Naked Capitalism blog noted on the revised margin requirements: “The question now becomes how quickly this development will work through the system and now many players will be affected. We’ve already seen Brookstreet forced onto the shoals by margin calls; the question is how many other hedge funds will follow. The secondary effect will be that hedge funds who have subprime exposure are facing redemptions (some like United Capital Markets have halted them). They were already faced with the prospect of having to sell fund assets in a weak market to pay exiting investors; reduced leverage will only make a bad situation worse (the implicit vote of no confidence by the dealer community will make it less likely that speculative buyers will step forward). The good side is, if we believe the report in a recent issue of Bloomberg Magazine, hedge funds are smaller participants in the subprime-related CDO market than thought earlier, owning 3% of the investment grade portions and 10% of the equity tranches.”

I have read that a lot of CDO derivatives contracts are written with a Payment in Kind (PIK) recourse clause. In the context of CDOs, a PIK clause guarantees that if an obligation cannot be paid in cash, then it can be settled with the transfer of additional CDO paper. When default rates spike (as they have done recently with sub-prime mortgages) and a CDO party stops paying current interest (for lack of cash), they can hand over additional debt obligations, as a payment in kind. But what if that paper is also worthless, or nearly worthless? (This is the “double your trash back” that I mentioned.) Worthless PIK settlements could very well happen in coming months, as the US coastal residential real estate market unravels. This could get very ugly in a hurry. Changing margin regulations may make some holders of CDOs forced sellers, setting in motion a downward spiral in CDOs. If the sub-prime CDO failures start to snowball, beware! The liquidation could turn into a reverse bidding or “race to the bottom” situation, as anxious investors try to recoup something, anything from their initial investment. If and when this happens, it could make the $3.6 Billion Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) bailout and the more recent $4.6 Billion lost by Amaranth Advisors look like minor hiccups, by comparison.

Those of you that have read SurvivalBlog since its early days will remember that I’ve issued warnings about the derivatives market in general and the credit derivatives market in particular, since late 2005. My advice hasn’t changed much. It remains: Be aware. Be prepared. Diversify. Minimize your exposure to both the real estate bubble and the credit derivatives market–directly or indirectly.



Letter Re: Supporting SurvivalBlog

Mr Rawles:
I was shocked to see that only 1% of readers have gotten a [voluntary] 10 Cent Challenge subscription. I signed up after the second week that I began reading.your blog. There is no other site on the Internet that has the same amount of in-depth info on preparedness. Nothing even comes close. I am blown away by how much knowledge is piled up in your archives. I could spend two or three hours a day searching through news sites, financial advisory websites, backpacking websites, EMT websites, gun websites, food storage websites, and so forth, and still not glean what is contained in SurvivalBlog. Ten cents a day is tiny pittance compared to what I get out of it.

Because of you and SurvivalBlog, my family is now much, much, much better prepared than it was a year ago. SurvivalBlog has tons of useful info. Anyone that can’t see that is either a fool or an idiot. I figure that SurvivalBlog has saved me hundreds [of dollars] by giving wise advice that has kept me from making some expensive mistakes in prepping. What I learned from your blog allowed my to package my own storage food (in [food grade plastic] pails) instead of buying over-priced [commercially] canned food for storage. SurvivalBlog also steered me away from radio gear that had short range and pitiful security. ([Instead,] I bought MURS band [transceivers].) The blog also directed me to some outstanding firearms training that cost very little. (The [RWVA] Appleseed range days and “clinics”.) The blog convinced me to re-prioritize my life and cut out fast food. (Which did good things for both my budget and my waistline. I’m now down two full belt notches and about ready for my third notch.) The blog also motivated me to sell off some of my guns in odd calibers (like I had a 280 Remington, a .35 Remington, and a .41 AE [Action Express]) and get standard calibers. Now that ammunition has zoomed way up in price, I have a lot more options on where to buy and what to buy. Now I have all.308 [Winchester], .30-06, .30-30, 7.62mm (AK), .223 Rem., 12 ga., .45 Auto, .357 Mag., 9mm, .22LR and .22 Mag. guns. Like another guy that wrote a few months back, SurvivalBlog also set me straight on generators. (Now I plan to get a low RPM diesel, not gas!) So I figure that in the long run SurvivalBlog will save me thousands. Ten cents a day, by comparison, is a real bargain. So here’s my personal challenge to anyone that reads this: What is SurvivalBlog really worth to you? If SurvivalBlog were to disappear, would you miss it? If you value it, then support it! – Phillip G.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Remember that there are now just three days remaining for the $500 Interceptor Body Armor (IBA) vest special from BulletProofME.com. July 12th is the deadline. Anyone who has shopped for body armor knows what a great deal $500 is for a new Interceptor vest. Don’t miss out on this deal.

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Reader Andy L. mentioned an article about the ultimate in privacy for retreats: Your own island in the Bahamas.

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MP noticed this editorial in a Seattle, Washington newspaper: Disaster’s coming: Get ready. MP’s comment: “Sure, 10 days is still a bit weak but it’s a step in the right direction over the laughable three day idea [that is promoted in the region, mirroring the guidance from most Federal agencies.]”

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Readers Michael A. and RBS both sent this piece from The Financial Times: Nestlé chief fears food price inflation.The article begins: “Food prices are set for a period of “significant and long-lasting” inflation because of demand from China and India and the use of crops for biofuels, according to the head of Nestlé.”





Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu is Still a Major Threat

Jim,
I am a regular reader with 40+ yrs of prepping and a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber. My current career is as a Hospital Staff Respiratory Therapist.
We recently had a seminar on the coming Avian Flu Pandemic that scared the heck out of me. The timeline for human to human vector is 3 to 5 years, if it follows the current rate of mutation. It will probably come out of Thailand, and with air travel, will quickly spread around the world, with entry to the US through the major international airports. With luck and area quarantines, they may be able to limit the spread.
When it hits, they expect a desertion rate of at least 30% of all services: Health Care workers, Police and Fire, even National Guard.
CDC, FEMA and individual hospitals are stocking up on supplies in anticipation of a mortality rate of 10% to 20% of infected cases. Hospitals may become armed camps to control the panic. Basic hospital services will become limited and rationed, no elective surgery, etc.
Hand washing, use of a particle mask and eye shields will be your best defense.

And that’s the good news

The world and even the USA is not prepared for such an event. It may take 3 to 6 months to develop a specific vaccine for the flu mutation, and the flu may mutate even more.
We do not have the capacity to handle the death rate. Figure bodies stored in Refrigerated Trucks, mass graves, or cremation.
We do not have the hospital beds to handle a Pandemic. We may have to go to a ward set-up again.
If you bring in a family member, you may be drafted to help provide basic care, and you may be the best way to have good care for that person. The professional staff will be overworked.

The main killer for the Avian Flu is Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). ARDS requires intubation and use of a ventilator for survival. We do not have enough ventilators, and we are being inventive and are thinking outside the box for this one. We may have to “gang” patients on Ventilators, or recruit people to hand squeeze AMBU bags to keep people alive.
We may have to “Triage” patients and use the available resources to try to save the salvable. Factors such as chronic illnesses, morbid obesity, or even advanced age may resign patients to the “sink or swim” ward. We staff may have to do this to our own friends or family.

Contrary to my own survival instincts, I intend to be on the job when it hits. They tell us that the staff may take double the percent casualty rate of the general populace. I will keep you updated to any useful information that comes my way. – Sput



Letter Re: How and Why to Get Physically Fit

JR-
With regard to the article on getting into physical conditioning and buying used exercise equipment, here is a general rule for readers to remember. They are like room heaters, air conditioners, pools, and lawn mowers etc. They are very seasonal. I have friends who work at thrift stores, and I can assure you the time to buy any exercise equipment is during the warmer months like right now [in the northern hemisphere]! The Ski Machine you refer to that costs almost $1,000 for the higher end models can be had for song during the summer months. Sometimes pennies on the dollar over the cost of buying new. In fact, I know of personal experiences where one was sold for less than a dollar to a person who was willing to ask about a unit sitting out back of the store. It was in almost brand new condition.
In the summer months, when everyone is physically active and the days are longer, very few folks are thinking about exercise. Folks are too busy enjoying their summer months to exercise indoors. These “junk” and thrift stores generally cannot sell them and don’t want to fill up valuable floor space with retail “dogs” when there are items that will move fast. With all the garage sales, flea markets, and yard sales, that are going on the supply is great and demand is low. They don’t tend to sell well there either so they accumulate at the local thrift stores as donations. This rule of thumb also applies to treadmills, weight benches, and other high quality seasonal items. One thing to remember about this kind of equipment is that everyone has great intentions about exercise equipment but very few of us ever really dedicate ourselves to our lofty goals. As a result, why ever buy new equipment, when you can let someone else absorb the new sticker price and second if you decide to stop or lose your motivation, you wont be stuck with buyers remorse.
With respect to thrift stores and the like, each one is different so you may have to find the right place to do business with. Don’t be afraid to make friends with the store workers and let them know what you are trying to find. Above all else be sincere. Then visit the store and remind them that you are still on a quest. Depending upon the circumstances, it’s generally just a matter of time and patience before what you are looking for, finds you. Also don’t be afraid to reward the employee or manager with a cold pop or a tip (if allowed) once you take delivery. This is very much appreciated by the employee and you will be remembered the next time you are on another “quest”- since so few people will ever display this kind of courtesy or generosity.
This same rule of seasonal supply and demand applies to other items you will need like clothing, insulation, building supplies etc,. Buy your necessities in the “off season” and be patient and most times you will find what you are looking for at a very reasonable price. That is the heart of the concept of preparedness on a budget. Tis Better to be the Ant with a mindset for what is coming than to be a Grasshopper caught up only in the moment with fiddle in hand.
A local auctioneer always sums it up best during his sales pitches before he starts the bidding on a piece of exercise equipment at his sales: “Folks, I have been in this business for over 30 years and I have yet to sell a worn out piece of exercise equipment!” Food For Thought. Keep it in mind the next time you are looking to buy “used” exercise equipment. – RBS



Odds ‘n Sods:

I recommend market watcher John’s Mauldin’s astute observations on the derivatives implosion and the tremendous downside risk in sub-prime Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) trading, titled “Where is the Real Risk in the Subprime Debacle?” It can be found in this PDF. (BTW, I highly recommend subscribing to John’s free weekly E-letter.) Meanwhile, Bloomberg has more news on troubled derivatives: United Capital’s Devaney Halts Hedge Fund Withdrawals

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Commodities market signs of the times: Keg Thefts Rise with Metals Prices, and Power line theft leaves South Africa in dark

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From a recent Daily Reckoning e-newsletter: “And here’s the latest mortgage scam – ‘equity stripping.’ Of course, equity stripping is what homeowners have been doing themselves for more than 10 years. Until the early ’90s, the typical homeowner owned nearly 70% of his house, free of debt. Now, the figure is only 52%. But now, as the housing slump deepens, more and more homeowners are faced with losing their houses. The American Bankers Association says that 19% of sub-prime mortgages are either delinquent or already in foreclosure. This has created a whole new mini-industry – helping people save their homes. Fast-moving finance companies read the published lists of houses entering the foreclosure process. They visit desperate owners, offering to restructure mortgages in order to prevent foreclosure. Then, they get owners to sign the houses over to the finance company, which strips out any remained equity – and then some. When the homeowners finally realize what has happened, they find themselves even deeper in debt…and the finance company no longer answers its phone.”

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We note the latest entrant in the Blogosphere with a penchant for preparedness: SHTF Daily. Check it out.