“Official” Statistics on Population, Employment, Income Levels, Money Supply, and Inflation?

James:
In a recent Odds ‘n Sods item, you cited a article published by The New York Times: You stated: “A key data point mentioned in the article: ‘The median household [in the US] earned $48,201 in 2006, down from $49,244 in 1999, according to the Census Bureau.’ “

That’s from changing population dynamics and more careful surveys of low-income families. For comparable populations, income has risen as you ought to expect.
Consider the results for “Worked Full Time, Year Round, Both Sexes, White”…
For 1999 income:
Persons in this group: 81.7 million
Mean income of all persons in this group: $44,854
For 2006 income:
Persons in this group: 88 million
Mean income of all persons in this group: $55,176
The 1999 figure, adjusted for US retail price inflation to 2006, is equivalent to $53,781.
Adjusted for US wage inflation, the number is $53,622.

This is only barely better than staying even, but that’s a lot better than the conclusion you drew from the New York Times article, which is that the median income has somehow declined 23% in constant dollars. Since when did you start trusting everything you read in the New York Times? In this case, the [New York Times] author went out of his way to make a clearly false claim: “Most American households are still not earning as much annually as they did in 1999, once inflation is taken into account.” Based on the actual facts he presents as his source data, that just isn’t true.

From the CIA World Factbook, the US GDP was $9.26 trillion in 1999 and $12.98 trillion in 2006, a 40.1% increase. Tom’s price-inflation calculator says $9.26 in 1999 is equivalent to $11.10 in 2006, so the real growth was about 17%.

According to the Census Bureau, the population of the United States grew about 7% in those seven years, leaving us with roughly 10% of growth in per-capita GDP. So that’s consistent with the other Census data, and it’s reasonable to conclude from these analyses that average individual income did in fact increase faster than inflation during this time. – PNG

JWR Replies: Like you, I am dubious about statistics complied by governments. Journalists with an axe to grind–such as the New York Times writer that you mentioned do indeed distort statistics even further, so this is cause to distrust press accounts of “official” statistics.

In many cases, government statisticians are solving equation with multiple missing variables, so their results are an admixture of mathematics, conjecture and voodoo. Inflation statistics are case in point. The official figures on consumer price inflation have become almost laughable. The “core” inflation rate excludes “volatile” food and energy costs. This makes the “official” consumer inflation figure just about useless to me, since my family’s three biggest budget items are insurance, groceries, and gasoline.

Money supply figures cannot be trusted. The figure for electronic “bankers” dollars are perhaps fairly trustworthy, ut figures for printed paper dollars are unreliable, at best. There is no way to account for how many dollars are squirreled away in mattresses, or are in the hands of foreigners. (Although if foreigners have half a brain, they are currently scrambling to exchange into a more stable currency.) One key statistic, the M3 Money Supply Aggregate, got so embarrassing that in 2006 the government stopped publishing it. At least one web publisher, ShadowStats, has attempted to reconstruct the M3 figure, independently. (They charge for access to most of their data and reports.)

Government unemployment figures are also highly suspect. By their own admission, the Bureau of Labor Statistics undercounts the chronically unemployed. Once someone has been unemployed long enough to have their state unemployment insurance benefits run out, they simply drop off the radar. The unemployment statistics also do a poor job of accounting for underemployment. For example, they would in the aggregate count an out-of-work stockbroker (that formerly made $250,000 per year) as “full time employed” if he out of desperation takes a full time job as a waiter, for minimum wage, plus tips.

Census figures cannot be completely trusted. The US Census has become a political football. Most notably, it has become a cause celebre for both homeless advocates and illegal alien advocates. These advocates can be found both inside and outside of government. They have attempted to manipulate data for political ends. How many illegal aliens are there in the US? Nobody really knows. The estimates that I’ve read range from 10 million to 22 million. But again, it is guesswork.

The bottom line is that “official” statistics are not be trusted. I’ll close with an unattributed quotation: “Most people use statistics the way a drunk uses a lamp post, more for support than enlightenment.”

Odds ‘n Sods:

Eric spotted this summary article at Bloomberg: Subprime Losses Reach $195 Billion; German Banks Get Hit

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DB found us this: Dollar losing clout around the world. Here is a quote: “Hit by a free fall with no end in sight, the once-mighty U.S. dollar is no longer just crashing on currency markets and making life more expensive for American tourists and business people abroad: Its clout is evaporating worldwide as foreign businesses and individuals turn to other currencies. Experts say the bleak U.S. economic forecast means it will take years for the greenback to recover its value and prestige.”

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Kyle D. sent an interesting piece of conjecture on “upside down” US homeowners, posted over at The Bear Ridge Project blog. Kyle’s comment: “The housing market is currently going down in value, and it will continue to do so at least 10-20% more. There are going to be so many foreclosed homes on the market, its going to take a very long time for the market to reach equilibrium. After we near this bottom, it will be even more of a buyers market than it currently is. At this point, its almost better to currently rent your home, as anything you buy will be upside down shortly.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I do not have a new message here; we have known for a long time that advance preparation and a strong balance sheet are the keys to riding out a financial storm. As I have emphasized before, the Federal Reserve can deal with liquidity pressures but cannot deal with solvency issues.” – William Poole, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 29, 2008 (as recently quoted by Dr. Gary North in his Reality Check e-newsletter.)

Note from JWR:

The current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction ends tomorrow (Saturday, March 15th) at midnight. The high bid is now at $210. The auction is for a combined lot of five items: a 120 VAC/12 VDC BedFan Personal Cooling System (a $99 retail value), kindly donated by the manufacturer, a Thieves Oil Start Living Kit (a $161 retail value), the book “Healing Oils of the Bible“ by David Stewart, Phd. (a $19 retail value) the book “When Technology Fails“, by Matthew Stein (a $29 retail value)–all donated by Ready Made Resources, and a copy of the latest edition of “The Encyclopedia of Country Living” by the late Carla Emery (a $32 retail value). The auction ends on March 15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.

The Four Gs Update: Have You Got God?, Groceries?, Guns?, Gold?

In the next few paragraphs I’ll be tackling four issues that for many years, I’ve labelled “The Four Gs.” One of my contemporaries, Richard “Doc” Sweeny, even made the concept into and acronym: GGGG, for “God, Gold, Guns, and Groceries.”

God.
I consider faith in God the cornerstone of my family’s preparedness. Faith in God’s sovereign control of the future gives my family hope and peace in these troubled times. If there is no hope, then why prepare? Our hope is in Christ Jesus.

Groceries.
 There are continuing reports of shortages around the country of wheat flour, corn meal, rice, and cooking oil at some of the “big box:” stores such as COSTCO and Sam’s Club. This phenomenon is not uniform. Some readers tell me that it is “business at usual” at their local stores, while others report “one bag per customer” rationing signs have been posted, and a few report empty shelves. With galloping wholesale prices and shortages at the wholesale level, I expect these spot shortages to continue.

I’ve had a half dozen anxious e-mails from readers in the past week, complaining that their storage food orders have been delayed, that they can’t get a firm answer on delivery dates from the vendors, or that the vendors won’t even return their calls or e-mails. In nearly all of these instances, the companies in question are not SurvivalBlog advertisers. I’ve heard from several vendors that the big packing and canning outfits like Mountain House and Alpen Aire are essentially sold out of stock on hand, and that their order backlogs are at least 30 days, and growing. The problem is that in “normal” times, these companies serve a “niche” clientele. They just aren’t scaled to handle the order volume when more than 1% or 2% of the population places orders. I witnessed a similar situation back in 1999, just before the Y2K rollover. Some good news that I can mention is that several of our advertisers such as Ready Made Resources actually still have some storage food on hand. It is actually on the shelf (“in captivity”) and ready to ship. For any of their items that are back ordered, just be patient. You may have to wait four to six weeks. The other good news I can offer is that our advertisers all have good reputations. (If they didn’t, then they would not be allowed to advertise on SurvivalBlog.) The most reputable food storage vendors will not bill your credit card until the day that your order is actually shipped. Beware of small “fly by night” vendors that don’t keep any inventory on hand and that will bill your credit card weeks ahead of when they know they can ship. If you buy from a vendor that is not a SurvivalBlog advertiser, my advice is simple: pick your order up in person only from stock on hand, and pay cash on the spot. If you are taking delivery personally, then there is no need to leave a paper trail. Buying with a credit card is advised, in instances where immediate delivery is not promised. In that case, your credit card’s “charge back” buyer protection policy could protect you if you are defrauded. Keep in mind, however, that a charge back complaint often must be made within 30 days of the time of purchase.

Guns.
The next presidential election is huge question mark: Will the Democrats take the White House? And if they do, will another so-called “assault weapons” and “high capacity” magazine ban be legislated in the US? (Something similar to the 1994-to-2004 Federal ban.) At present, these possibilities are difficult to predict. But even if the “worst case” (namely, another ban with no sunset clause) doesn’t come to pass, I still consider battle rifles, full capacity magazines, and ammunition to be good investments and excellent barter items. If nothing else, like other nonperishable tangibles, they are good hedges on the falling dollar. Stock up, but do so quietly. If it is legal to do so in your jurisdiction, make all your gun purchases from private parties with no paper trail. Keep your eye on the local newspaper classified ads, as well as ads from sellers in your own state on GunBroker.com (on-line auctions) or GunsAmerica.com (fixed price sales–usually more expensive) Search only for sellers from your own state. That way, you won’t run afoul of the Federal law that prohibits the transfer of a modern (post-1898) gun across state lines, except through a FFL dealer. It might also be worth your time to drive long distances to some of the larger gun shows in your own state. Once there, you should of course buy guns only from private parties.

The upcoming Heller v. US supreme court decision should be interesting. I suspect that instead of striking down all Federal gun laws–which they rightfully should–the supreme court justices will pen a decision that is tightly worded and hence will only apply to just that one gun ban in the District of Columbia.

OBTW, for any of you that think that my advocacy of gun ownership and training is somehow un-Christian, all that I can do is direct you to Christ’s words in Luke 22:36.

Gold.
 I’m addressing gold last, for a reason. You’ve undoubtedly seen the recent headlines like this one: Gold at $1,000 on Weak Dollar, High Oil. Keep in mind that $1,000 is a psychological barrier. This might trigger some profit taking that could push the spot price of gold down as far as $920 per ounce. Take advantage of such dips. However, don’t get caught up in precious metals buying fever. Your key responsibility is to provide for your family, not to be a speculator. Don’t even think about investing any of your money in precious metals until after you have all of your crucial “beans, bullets, and Band-Aids” preparations well in hand. If you don’t have an honest one year food supply, then stop wasting your time hitting reload at the Kitco web site! (You probably won’t get the web page to load with any regularity anyway. The recent spike in gold and silver prices have generated so much web traffic that it has nearly crashed Kitco’s server. You might have better luck at the Swiss America web site.)

Remember: You can’t eat gold! There may come a day when you need to barter for day-to-day essentials. In such times, barter goods like common caliber ammunition or one-gallon cans of kerosene will be more sought-after than gold. Recognize precious metals for what they are: storehouses of wealth and hedges on the dollar. Think of them as a “time machine”. They can be trusted to preserve your wealth from one side of an economic collapse to the other.But do not expect them to keep your family fed in the midst of a socioeconomic collapse.

An afterthought: Perhaps I should add a fifth “G””, for Ground. I have long been a proponent of buying productive farm land. The nationwide market for real estate is clearly in a tailspin, and probably won’t bottom for several more years. But I firmly believe that the price declines will not be nearly as significant for good farm ground. Just be sure to be a wise buyer. Study local markets thoroughly (including soil surveys), and don’t feel rushed into making a purchase. In today’s market, time is on your side. I now recommend keeping a close eye on foreclosures, using services like Foreclosures.com or RealtyTrac.com.

 

Letter Re: Propane Heat and PV Power Solutions for RVs and Trailers

James,
I found this site in my search for a way to heat that travel trailer (that I don’t yet own). The guy with built his heating system for his RV out of a car’s heater core and attached it to PV panels for power of the pump motor and fan, the heating of the tank is [accomplished with] a propane [burner]. This might be something of interest to your readers as it’s something I’m going to need since the travel trailer I’m looking in to getting is older and needs a new heater. I figure why buy new or reinvent the wheel, I’ll find an efficient way to power and heat this travel trailer with minimum funds, someone has already done this somewhere and it’s out there on the Internet Thanks, – Fitzy in Pennsylvania

Letter Re: Preparedness for Martial Law–Finding Gaps in Bilateral Rendition Treaties

James;
This might seem like an odd [question], but have you given any thought to the [possible] aftermath of a major WMD terrorist attack, in which martial law is clamped down on the USofA? In times like that, political freedom might just evaporate. For [those of] us that have been [politically] outspoken–(I’m one of those cranky old guys with hundreds of published Letters To The Editor, and with one of those big Ron Paul [campaign] signs in my front yard)–where could we go in the event of some sort of round up?

Now, in peril of sounding even more odd: Are there some countries with which there is no bilateral extradition treaty? I’d just like to know if there is someplace that I could go, from where I could still be politically active on the Internet, without fear of getting swooped upon, bound and gagged, boxed up, and shipped home C.O.D. to some [expletive deleted] Supermax prison? Thanks, – J. in the Desert

JWR Replies: While extremely unlikely, your scenario does pose an interesting mental exercise. Extradition–more properly called rendition–is not universal. If you look at the map on the Wikipedia page on US Extradition Treaties, you will see that every nation in the Americas can be ruled out, because of extant rendition treaties with the US. In Western Europe, only tiny little Andorra lacks a rendition treaty. But you will also notice some big gray gaps on the map in Oceania, Africa, and Asia. In all, there are more than 50 countries that don’t have rendition treaties with the US. Just be sure to do your homework. Be advised that some nominally “sovereign” and independent countries, most notably in Oceania, are in part administered by foreign governments like France, Australia, and New Zealand, so as a practical matter you might be subject to a rendition treaty. Again, I consider such planning as nothing more than an idle “what if” exercise. Your chances of ever having to flee the country are highly remote.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Our friend Chad recommended this piece by John Markman: Sell Stocks While the Selling’s Good. Oops! Too late. You had your chance: Global Markets Tumble (A hat tip to Eric for that link.) Meanwhile, we read at WND: Recession? Maybe worse. Economy stumbles more–Expert says it could take years to recover from financial crisis now going global

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RBS mentioned a great do-it-it yourself project page on building cargo compartments into the back of an SUV. (This was designed for a Toyota Land Cruiser, but it is adaptable to many other vehicles.) It would be particularly useful for any readers that like to keep their rigs packed with G.O.O.D. essentials at all times. Speaking of BOVs, Chad mentioned Host Industries, a RV manufacturer in Bend, Oregon, that makes expandable pickup truck campers. Sort of like campers on steroids. Aside from the limitations of a higher center of gravity and lower overhead clearance, campers have a lot of advantages to towing a camping trailer.

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Eric flagged this: Flu outbreak could put big cities on lockdown

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Our #1 Son sent us this link: Scientists warn of wheat disease. Soon after, SF in Hawaii sent this piece on the same topic with a different perspective: Billions at risk from wheat super-blight

Notes from JWR:

The current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction ends in just two days. The high bid is now at $200. The auction is for a combined lot of five items: a 120 VAC/12 VDC BedFan Personal Cooling System (a $99 retail value), kindly donated by the manufacturer, a Thieves Oil Start Living Kit (a $161 retail value), the book “Healing Oils of the Bible“ by David Stewart, Phd. (a $19 retail value) the book “When Technology Fails“, by Matthew Stein (a $29 retail value)–all donated by Ready Made Resources, and a copy of the latest edition of “The Encyclopedia of Country Living” by the late Carla Emery (a $32 retail value). The auction ends on March 15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.

Our first post today is from David in Israel, one of SurvivalBlog’s volunteer international correspondents. He is an American ex-pat with a diverse background in forestry, firefighting, emergency medicine, and commercial kosher food inspection. One of his life-long hobbies has been amateur radio. David is now a Torah scholar, living in Israel with his wife and family.

Letter Re: Alternative News Sources When The Grid Goes Down

James
In the early 1990s–before Internet was ubiquitous–I remember a well-connected VHF packet remailer network that was nearly on par with the old Fidonet dial up network.
Unfortunately while many hams played with packet 15 years ago, the complex mailbox routing networks are now mostly replaced by the Internet. I don’t expect any data network resembling the Internet to evolve if the grid goes down. This is not to say that local networks using sound card data modems on CB or FRS radio or with Wi-Fi gear might not spring up, but it would be a low priority in both electricity and time.

HF amateur radio and shortwave radio will be the way to get your world news if the grid goes down. Buy a radio that will receive upper and lower sideband (USB/LSB) or you will be limited to megawatt commercial AM stations. (SSB is used by the power poor.) Set up a proper antenna length for the band you are listening to, an antenna tuner is not good enough. Even if people do not want to obtain their amateur licence it is advisable that they obtain PSK-31 sound card software and a connector cable to decode low power PSK data signals. PSK-31is nearly as good as Morse code for punching through noise, much better than voice mode. For those operating out of a backpack look at this PSK terminal device. No laptop needed!

Amateur satellite (AmSat) is fun and a great way to talk worldwide without needing HF gear but if the grid ever fully went down I would expect satellite tracking stations to lose control of their satellites as the employees are detained protecting their families. Most AmSat gear is piggybacked on commercial satellites and is powered from the main buss, amateur controllers have no way to maintain the main systems on the host satellite.

Look a few months back in the SurvivalBlog archives for the article on Earth Moon Earth (EME or “moon bounce”) propagation for an exotic and often difficult alternative to HF radio.

My plug for getting your license in the United State is: There is no longer a Morse Code test requirement! Anyone can memorize the question pool and easily pass the tech and general
exams now, what possible reason could any survivor not want to get licensed and on the air.

Worried about expensive gear? while I put down the tuna can transmitter for use as a survival set, it is a great way for a family to build a first transmitter
But if you want an actual usable Morse-only radio transceiver with even minimal long range survival utility, but easy and small enough for every member of the family to build and hide in a Tic-Tac breath mints box for under be $10 the Pixie takes the prize. If you search the net there are several sources for the pixie kit. – David in Israel

Letter Re: Consider Volunteering at a Homeless Shelter

Jim,
I read Doc’s article about volunteering in a homeless shelter and meeting some of the occupants. That brought back memories of when I was in my early teens. My Dad worked for the railroad and we lived near the railroad yards and I met a number of hobos in the woods behind our house. Most of them knew my Dad and had a lot of respect for him. He would sometimes give them spare change and cigarettes. The hobo’s slept in small dugout caves in the woods and would never steal from us. But they would steal chickens from a couple of our neighbors. I never ever saw a hobo carrying what he had in a bandana on the end of a stick like you see in pictures. What most of them had was either a small suitcase or an old surplus WWII army [back]pack. My friends and I would be playing or riding our bikes in the woods and run into the hobo’s eating or just hanging around. I was amazed on how they could start fires, cook, a lot of them always carried fishing tackle made up of hooks, sinkers, and line, used frog gigs with branches, set traps using snares. I used to hang around with these guys just to watch them. In turn I would sneak out some cans of beans, corn,etc to help them out. Not one time was I ever scared or harmed in any way. Again, most of them knew my Dad and left me alone. At the time I was in the Boy Scouts and learned from the hobo’s and when my Scout troop would go camping I would use my skills I learned from the hobo’s. This would amaze my scoutmaster and some of my fellow scouts. So I can understand Doc learning from the homeless that stay in the shelter he works at. – Randy in Asheville, NC

Letter Re: .22 Rimfire Kits for Battle Rifle Training

Hello, Mr. Rawles.
On your advice I read Boston’s Gun Bible and became convinced that I should get a .308 rifle. I bought the HK91, mostly on faith since I have never shot, let alone owned, a FAL, M1A, or AR-10. No one I know has any of these. And with ammo prices going up as much as they have, I decided to get the .22 [Long Rifle rimfire] conversion kit for the HK91. I paid a little under $500 (they were $400 a couple months ago, and there were a lot more available.) But since .22 ammo is so much cheaper than .308 ammo, I figured that the conversion kit would pay for itself after shooting about 1200 rounds of .22 instead of .308. I realize that practicing using the .22 conversion kit only comes so close to shooting .308, but I can still practice weapons familiarity, using the sights, trigger pull, etc.

When I first shot .22 [rimfire] through the HK91 I wasn’t sure the round left the chamber. The weapon barely moved, since shooting a measly .22 round is nothing for the rifle. This actually was something I really liked, because I could get used to firing the weapon and avoiding bad habits like, flinching, or jerking. I only had four malfunctions when I shot about 700 rounds of .22: one was from a dud, and three were mag feed problems (all with the second to the top round in the magazine, something with the spring I suppose). Shooting .22 through the HK91 was very accurate! I had thought that the conversion kit might be okay for beginners and I was expecting it to malfunction once in awhile, since the weapon was not really designed for it. So I was very happy that it was all so reliable. Obtaining the .22 conversion kit was not a factor in my decision to get an HK91, but it would be now if I were to do it again. I haven’t seen too many conversion kits for other .308 battle rifles, so I take it as a big plus that I can get an original HK conversion kit that is super reliable. I think it’s a great way not only to save money with weapons practice, it might also help others move into using my HK91 by starting them off using the lower caliber conversion kit.

I have decided to get all original HK parts and accessories. The quality I’ve experienced is worth it. I realize that other rifles, like the M1A, may be more accurate, but at my skill level, I don’t think it really matters. I’m still practicing using iron sights at 100 yards. Plus, I want mine to go boom (and hit the target) when I pull the trigger. I prefer revolvers for the same reason. If I were a better shooter, accuracy would probably be a bigger factor. If I were better at combat reloading, then I might like the FAL more. I also don’t have the money, and maybe time, to make many modifications to my weapons, so I really like how everything about the HK91 just plain works out-of-the box. I haven’t heard of anyone suggesting making modifications to it at all. I was thinking about getting different scopes (like one for night vision, another for daylight) and getting a separate STANAG claw mount for each one. I figured that way I could change scopes on my HK91 and have them all retain zero, but I’d like your opinion on that.

I appreciate your blog and I have taken the challenge to donate 10 cents a day because I have learned so much. However I don’t think I’ll ever be nearly as skilled, knowledgeable, or equipped as some of your other readers. I won’t be able to get that secluded property, I won’t be able to get a battery of weapons or make nice modifications to them, I won’t be able to get a converted 4-wheeler that runs on vegetable oil, at least not anytime soon, but I am staying out of debt, and I am keeping my ear to the ground and staying nimble for whatever comes down the road. I have recognized that a skill that I have lacked is that of a rifleman, and I am trying to become one, both for my family and my fellow countrymen. Thanks, – A Rifleman in Training

JWR Replies: You are to be commended from you efforts! Get some training from experts. Even if you can’t a afford a trip to Front Sight, keep in mind that both the RWVA/Appleseed Project. and the Western Rifle Shooters Association (WRSA) offer inexpensive but very effective training for riflemen.

In addition to the HK sub-caliber kit that you mentioned, there are .22 rimfire kits available for a variety of .223 rifles including the AR-15/M4 family and the Ruger Mini-14. Similar kits were also made for FALs and L1A1s, but sadly they are very expensive. With the current high cost of most centerfire ammunition, buying a .22 kit makes a lot of sense. I have also found that being able to shoot .22 rimfire through a battle rifle is useful for transitioning youths to high power shooting.

The original HK claw mounts have fairly consistent return to zero, so I do indeed recommend them.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Courtesy of reader KBF: J.P. Morgan Says Banks Face “Systemic Margin Call,” $325 billion hit

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When I last checked, the US Dollar Index was down to 72.260, and falling rapidly. Consider this a final warning: If the USD Index drops below 72, the next likely trading target will be approximately $1.75 to buy a Euro. Keep in mind that 72 is the magic number that The Chartist Gnome warned us about. Quit dawdling and get out of your dollar-denominated investments! OBTW, on a related note, here is a piece (by way of Eric) from Forbes: Fed Doing In The Dollar. It seems very likely that the Federal Reserve will make another 50 basis point (1/2%) cut decision at their planned March 18th meeting. This would surely mean a lower dollar and higher precious metals prices.

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Reader Charley S. flagged some economic commentary at TruthOut.org. Here is a brief excerpt: “Suddenly, the very notion of paper money, a sort of rubber check, has lost its credibility. As a corollary to that disaffection, investors are switching en masse to physical assets such as gold, land and the real estate and infrastructure of countries experiencing strong growth.”

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I Told You So Department: Seven Hedge Funds controlling $5.4 Billion have been forced to liquidate or suspend redemptions in the past month. Back in September and October of Aught Seven, I warned specifically about the ability of hedge fund managers to suspend redemptions without notice. Well, now this is exactly what happening, on a grand scale.