Letter Re: Is the Threat of a Yellowstone Supervolcano Significant?

Hello, Jim!
I have been following your blog and every time the subject comes up on retreats in the [U.S.] Northwest, I have the same question. What about the volcano threat from Yellowstone National Park? Would you please comment on this. Thanks, – GCP

JWR Replies: Part of what you are reading in the mainstream media may be sensationalist hype, but there is definitely a long term risk. (An eruption sometime in the next 10,000 years.) The imponderable question is: Is there as significant risk in the short term? Clearly, none of the “experts” really know for certain. Yes, there are signs of increased volcanic activity at Yellowstone, but that could be a short term fluctuation. And yes, Yellowstone blew up at least once before–several thousand years ago–and when it did, it blanketed much of the eastern two-thirds of the North American continent under volcanic ash that was several meters deep, even as far as the east coast. The worst hit area was a swath that extended from Yellowstone through the Great Lakes, to New England, following the prevailing winds. Meanwhile, areas that were upwind (west of Yellowstone) were relatively unscathed.

Even though it was a couple of orders of magnitudes smaller, the eruption of Mount St. Helens more than two decades ago is a good data point. In essence, the lesson learned from St. Helens is: Upwind good, and downwind bad. If you are concerned about Yellowstone erupting anytime in the next couple of generations, then avoid living in the downwind path. Land anywhere at least 100 miles west of Yellowstone should be relatively safe. My personal risk assessment places a new Yellowstone caldera as a very, very low risk within my lifetime, but if it were to happen it would be truly catastrophic. (A classic “low probability, high risk scenario–much like a major asteroid strike or the “sudden pole shift” that alarmists on the Coast to Coast AM radio show talk about.) But, even still, we live west of the Rockies. Yellowstone is just one less risk that we have to worry about.

Letter Re: Advice on Underground Retreat Construction

James:
I agree with you Jim; your own home is not a first time DIY project, but. I would also refer Buddy to the $50 and Up Underground House Book. I have the book, and the author’s DVD/Video set. The book covers the construction method pretty well, and the DVD/Video, while not studio quality, is clear, has lots of models to illustrate his points. If I was going to build an underground home myself, this is the route I would take. Also, even though I have a significant amount of experience with construction, I would still spend at least a few weeks in an intern program, before undertaking such a project. Sincerely, – Fanderal

Letter Re: New Production of Steyr AUG Bullpup Rifles in the U.S.?

Jim,
I’d first heard of this product somewhat less than a year ago. Well, if the U.S. production ever starts up (rumor indicated that, because Steyr had supposedly sold some ‘things’ to Iran, that our President had decided the AUG would not be produced in this country), it’ll be a long time coming. Also, all those AUGs on Gunbroker.com selling for $4,000-$7,000 will take a steep nosedive; persistent rumor is saying the U.S.-made MSRP is expected to be around $1,300. (Even “under $2,000” will be a bargain). 🙂 Ben

Letter Re: Easy to Carry Fixed Blade Knives

Mr. R.:
I read OSOM’s letter on fixed versus folder knives and I agree. I’d encourage folks to go take a look at the HideAway Knives. These are semi-custom made: You measure the circumference around your index and ring finger combined, and the knife is finished to that dimension. The resulting knife is a two-finger custom loop with a 2-inch (or longer) blade attached. They are incredibly fast into action, razor-sharp, and you can open the hand up and continue to operate lights, doors, keys, magazines, etc without losing the knife. It stays in place, out of the way and instantly available again when you close the hand. It is a great design. The carry systems for it are just as innovative. It can be rigged anywhere on the person or outfit
They are more expensive than the Ka-Bar TDI, but definitely worth a look. One comment posted at the HAK site accurately describes the user as a “human velociraptor.” The knife comes with a standard Kydex sheath, and a Band-Aid for the inevitable cut one incurs before appreciating just how keen the edge and point are. – Murray

Odds ‘n Sods:

Economist Gary North commented in a recent e-newsletter about “inflation fighter” Alan Greenspan’s legacy: “Using the inflation calculator, located on the home page of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, we find that in 1997, an item that had cost $1,000 in 1987 [when Greenspan took office] cost $1,412 — a 40% increase in prices.”

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Tessy e-mailed us to mention: “One of the greatest and most valuable treasures in my survival library is the book written by the cadre of the United States Rescue and Special Operations Group based in Kansas City: “Six Ways in, Twelve Ways Out.” Their web site was a great resource for survival information. but for the last six months, the site has been down for some reason. I checked by clicking on my Favorites link tonight and wow! The USRSOG site is back up and looks great. Lots of great info even if you don’t buy the book about building shelters and other neat stuff. Look for the manual link on the right.”

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Rourke (moderator of the Jericho Discussion Group) pointed us to this thread: The Day After versus Jericho.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Does history warrant the conclusion that religion is necessary to morality — that a natural ethic is too weak to withstand the savagery that lurks under civilization and emerges in our dreams, crimes and wars? There is no significant example in history, before our time, of a society successfully maintaining moral life without the aid of religion." – Will and Ariel Durant

Note From JWR:

I’ve received more than 10 e-mails from SurvivalBlog readers in the past 24 hours about the news story that ran in The Times of London headlined: “Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran.” (It was featured in The Drudge Report.) I’m checking on the veracity of the article, but it seems incredible to me.

Letter Re: Easy to Carry Fixed Blade Knives

Dear Jim:
Following up on the discussion a few months back on the folders vs. fixed blade knives for defense: To recap – folders are easier to carry and legal in more places, but fixed blades easier and faster and safer to get in to action. Ever tried opening a folder while wrestling or being hit? I’ve taken a class where you do a low intensity simulation with blunt training knives, and, put it this way, opening a folder under attack is not something I ever want to bet my life – or my fingers on!
If you live in a state that does not prohibit fixed blades, there is now a much easier to carry fixed blade, introduced by Ka-Bar – their TDI Law Enforcement:
The handle comes off the blade at an angle so it is much easier to carry and conceal – see the photos. A big improvement over straight knife concealability. I like the ergonomics as well – very hard for your hand to slip onto the blade.
To check on your state’s edged weapons laws, see this site. Regards, – OSOM

Letter Re: Recommended Versatile Dog Breeds for Retreat Security

Mr. Rawles:
I have owned many types of dogs over the years, from coonhounds when I lived in Idaho, to a horrible little dachshund we currently have, but who may be the best watchdog I’ve ever owned. Were it not for his addiction to killing chickens and rabbits (which we also raise), he might make a great retreat dog! My current choice is the Komondor. Extremely independent, but in the right hands an absolutely devoted and fearless defender of livestock, home, barn, children. My big male is the constant companion of my daughters as they roam our property, putting himself between them and any threat, real or perceived. Never vicious or prone to attack, but very willing to stand off a stranger until he has been thoroughly investigated and cleared by me as being okay. These are not dogs for everyone; but with proper handling they are great dogs even with children. They do not share the Great Pyrenees penchant for roaming, and have a well-developed sense of property and territory. Their drawback as well as part of their uniqueness is their unusual corded coat, which we shear here in Texas due to the heat and the fact that nearly everything here has burrs or thorns. Even though it is a large breed, their dietary requirements are surprisingly small. Such giant breeds often have slow metabolisms and don’t need as much food as you’d think. My big male gets about 4 cups of high protein food a day. And being of rather peasant, Hungarian ancestry, he is happy with the occasional baked potato to supplement his regular diet. He also will consume goat feed if he thinks I am not watching, but seems to suffer no ill effects from it.

So I’ll end here, but thanks for your hard work, and we look forward to reading more and learning more. Best wishes to you and your family, – Ginger B

Letter Re: Pre-1899 Mauser Rifles

Dear Jim,
I noticed that The Pre-1899 Specialist has some Chilean Mausers in stock. I have one of these that I acquired some time back, in the original 7 x 57 Mauser chambering.
These are a very smooth, reliable, strong bolt action rifle, accurate and easy to handle. They’re a reasonably modern style. In either 7mm or 7.62mm they are definitely a good addition to a preparedness arsenal. They will take most North American or European large game, and in extremis will accurately defeat human threats at several hundred yards. You can also get a more modern drop-in stock for the 1895 Mauser. Regards, Michael Z. Williamson

Letter Re: Oilfield Production Decline Rates are Worse than Expected

Dear Jim and Family,
I wish I could say Happy New Year, but i just learned some terrible news in the oil business. The big fields where most of the USA and world get their oil are declining at much faster rates than expected, and the companies are willing to admit to high numbers.

In summary: Burgan field in Kuwait dropping at 11% per year.
Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia (biggest in the world) dropping at 8%, which is 5.5% higher than expected.
Cantarell field in Mexico (source of most US oil) is dropping at 14% rather than the 6% they thought was a worst case scenario back in September. That’s an 8% increase in decline in only 3 months. That’s very bad. Cantarell could collapse and abruptly stop producing oil. It almost certainly will later this year.
Venezuela is declining at an unknown rate.
Nigeria is suffering a civil war which reduces its oil production. “Youths?” Call them rebels; its more honest.

And to make matters worse, there’s some kind of infighting going on in Saudi Arabia. If this rises to the point of even interrupting production in the oil terminals controlled by Saudi Arabia, a conservative 16% of world oil production will suddenly be shut off. This would immediately result in a bidding war for oil tanker deliveries and drive the price of a barrel past $100, probably a lot more, like $170 or so. Maybe higher in the panic buying stage. Gasoline can be expected to pass $8 per gallon and probably go higher. The entire 3rd world, except oil producers themselves, won’t have gasoline or diesel anymore. Expect severe collapse and famine to begin almost immediately.

And the really bad news? Even without a collapse in Saudi Arabia, the decline in production from those big fields will cause this to happen over the duration of 2007. It may be a more “slow motion” collapse than a fast one, but the price of oil will rise to destroy consumption, which will hurt the poorest nations most, those least able to afford modern conveniences. Full expect civil wars to break out there over this collapse. I am sad about this prospect. My medication comes from New Jersey. I really hope they keep shipping it through the coming troubles. Sincerely, – InyoKern

Letter Re: Night Sights for Pistols

Dear Jim:
After doing some night shooting courses with no night sights on my long gun – ( bad idea 🙁 ) I found XS Sights for long gun tritium retrofits. Fortunately, I was also introduced to their pistol sights for faster day and night sight shooting – 24/7 Express Sights.
You really need to see the photo to appreciate the design, but basically it make the rear notch a very shallow V with a tritium “I” bar in the low center. The front sight is tritium surrounded by a big white dot – so you get the tritium at night, but also a big white dot for faster day and low light shooting (when [the glow of] tritium is not as noticeable). Typical pistol combat distances of 1 to 15 yards you just put the dot on and shoot. Over 15 yards you focus on the top of the dot for a more precise aiming point, and to avoid shooting slightly high.
Having done some Force on Force courses, I realized how valuable making a “flash” sight picture even quicker could be, so I got a set of the Big Dots to test. (Standard size is a compromise – not worth it, go for the Big Dot.)
Bottom line they are significantly faster for combat shooting. These are not precision target sights, but my IDPA accuracy stayed the same in practice and competition. The big improvement was that sight alignment came I’d say roughly 20% faster. Finally won my division in the area match after putting on the XS Express Sights!
I’m taking off my 3-dot tritium sights and retrofitting all my carry pistols with the Big Dot. Regards, – OSOM

Letter Re: Can I Burn Off Road Diesel Fuel in a Modern Diesel Engine?

Jim
I have experience with both off and on road diesels mechanical and electronic control. Normally off road fuel is ok to run in all mechanically fuel injected engines from a performance standpoint. (But legality is another matter.) However, both Stanidyne and Delphi produce an electromechanical pump for some on road applications that use an electric eye to read timing. These types of fuel systems cannot be run on dyed fuel. I repeat cannot be run on off road fuel.
Second and of primary importance is fuel quality all electronic fuel injection systems are very sensitive to fuel contamination and electromagnetic pulse (EMP). a near miss by lightning could put one out of action for good. Power transfer stations or “transformer farms” can also produce a local EMP[-like waveform] if they are taken off-line suddenly. As far as long term survival use or even in a short term SHTF situation, [traditional mechanical [diesel] engines [without microprocessors] are your best be. Unfortunately this limits you to pre 1989-on road engines and pre-2004 off road/marine engines but if you are good with a wrench most can be rebuilt to like new and run almost forever with proper care and maintenance. I would also recommend filter upgrades to all diesel engines to keep them running. I have a lot of experience with RACOR products. Look them up on the web. I would be willing to help out with any questions you may have on the care and feeding of the diesel engine. “Aim small miss small”, – Mike the Mechanic

JWR Replies: Many thanks for making that correction! I will revise my original post with the information that you provided on the Stanidyne and Delphi fuel pumps with optical sensors

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"There are three points of doctrine the belief of which forms the foundation of all morality. The first is the existence of God; the second is the immortality of the human soul; and the third is a future state of rewards and punishments. Suppose it possible for a man to disbelieve either of these three articles of faith and that man will have no conscience, he will have no other law than that of the tiger or the shark. The laws of man may bind him in chains or may put him to death, but they never can make him wise, virtuous, or happy." – John Quincy Adams