Notes from JWR:

I just noticed that SurvivalBlog is rapidly approaching the milestone of one million unique visits! To highlight this event, I’m offering a special prize to the one-millionth visitor. If you are fortunate enough to be the visitor that witnesses the SurvivalBlog unique visits counter (at the top of the right hand bar) roll over to exactly 1,000,000 visits then take a screen capture of the page and e-mail it to me. Your prize will be two books: an autographed copy of my novel “Patriots” and an autogrpahed copy of my non-fiction book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation.

It warmed up to 30 degrees yesterday, so The Memsahib did some more ice skating down on the slough. (A shallow side channel at the north end of our property, that leads into The Unnamed River (TUR.)) She is becoming quite the skater. In fact, she can skate better backwards that I can forward! The Memsahib looked very fetching in her hand spun, hand-dyed, hand knit sweater. Ooooh! Very Sonja Henne. Sometimes she makes it hard for me to concentrate on my work. We’ve been married nearly 20 years but we are still madly in love.

Letter Re: How to Reply to “When the SHTF, I’m Going Over to Your House”, by Rolf in the Northwest

Jim,
I liked Rolf’s idea for a reply to the “I’m coming to your house” comments. I like to say: “If you got in a car wreck, you wouldn’t expect my car insurance to cover it would you? No, of course not, that’s what you have your own car insurance for. If your house burned down, you wouldn’t expect my house insurance to cover it would you? No, of course not, that’s what you have your own house insurance for. So, how would it be any different in a disaster. Do you think my disaster insurance should cover you in the event of a disaster? No, of course not, that’s what you have your own disaster insurance for.” If they answer with some kind of belligerent remark about coming over anyway, you can always casually mention that you also stock up on large quantities of ammunition. That usually seems to make them think again about what they just said. – Matt, U.P. of Michigan

Letter Re: Survival Biscuits

The history of biscuits started off in Rome around the 3rd Century BC. The word biscuit comes from the Latin bis coctum which means “twice-baked”. Back then, a biscuit was a thin unleavened wafer, quite hard, and with a very low water content – hence the name “twice-baked”. The advantage of the low water content was that the biscuit would have a long shelf-life, because it wouldn’t get moldy. Adding eggs or meat to the biscuit mix increases protein content but it will not last as long. Mixing a complementary proteins (grains with dairy, grains with beans and beans with seeds) will provide a more complete protein and have a longer shelf life. When properly made, they travel well and are satisfying and nutrient dense. – SF in Hawaii

JWR Replies: “Hard tack” biscuits, “ship’s biscuits”, or “pilot bread” have long been a staple for trappers, explorers, sled team mushers, seamen, and mining prospectors. They are a compact food with decent shelf life, and easy to digest. Modern plastic zip lock bag packaging can keep them dry and fresh–eliminating the “soggy, moldy biscuits” problem cited by 19th Century explorers. I like your idea of mixing in beans to form a more complete protein. Pound for pound, there are few foods–aside for some freeze dried marvels–that can compare with a combination of hardtack, jerky, peanut butter, honey, and dried fruit. Just be sure that your digestive system can cope with this diet before trying to subsist on it for more than a couple of days. You might need to add some natural roughage such as bran flakes, or perhaps even a commercial bulk laxative such as Metamucil. Compact backpacking foods make the best foods to store in your “Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) backpack. Here is a link to a traditional hardtack recipe, but with modern cooking. – SF in Hawaii

Odds ‘n Sods:

Hawaiian K. suggested a link to the article titled: “No Way Out: A 50% Dollar Devaluation“, by Robert McHugh, Ph.D. 

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The big “Container load sale” at Survival Enterprises that I mentioned last week is now in high gear. It is all selling fast and strictly “first come – first served.” The prices are less than half of retail. Survival Enterprises can take all major credit cards, PayPal, cash, gold and silver coins, but no checks or money orders. Survival Enterprises has a web page with a running inventory list with prices. (As they sell out an item, they keep visible track what is left.) All orders must be phoned in for mail order, or by appointment to come in and pick up your order in person. (Survival Enterprises is located in Coeur d’ Alene, Idaho. This is a a great opportunity for SurvivalBlog readers in the Inland Northwest to get their storage food with no shipping charges!.) For special requests, you can call Kurt of Survival Enterprises at (800) 753-1981 or locally at (208) 704-3935 as late as 8 p.m. Pacific time (5 p.m. Eastern time), or e-mail him at: kwATse1.us (Change the “AT” to an @symbol)

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Glenn Reynolds managed to get this published in the op-ed page of the liberally-biased New York Times: A Rifle in Every Pot

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

On The Great Plague of London: “And now, after all the breaches on the churches, the ejection of the ministers, and impenitency under all, wars, and plague, and danger of famine began all at once on us. War with the Hollanders, which yet continueth; and the driest winter, and spring, and summer that ever man alive knew, or our forefathers mention of late ages; so that the grounds were burnt like the highways where the cattle should have fed! The meadow grounds, where I lived, bare but four loads of hay, which before bare forty. The plague hath seized on the most famous and most excellent city of Christendom; and, at this time, eight thousand and near three hundred die of all diseases in a week. It hath scattered and consumed the inhabitants, multitudes being dead and fled. The calamities and cries of the diseased and impoverished are not to be conceived by those that are absent from them! Every man is a terror to his neighbour and himself; for God, for our sins, is a terror to us all. Oh! how is London, the place which God hath honoured with his gospel above all the places of the earth, laid low in horrors, and wasted almost to desolation, by the wrath of God, whom England hath contemned; and a God-hating generation are consumed in their sins, and the righteous are also taken away, as from greater evil yet to come.
‘The number that died in London, besides all the rest of the land, was about a hundred thousand, reckoning the Quakers, and others that were never put in the bills of morality, with those that were in the bills. The richer sort removing out of the city, the greatest blow fell on the poor. At the first, so few of the most religious sort were taken away, that, according to the mode of too many such, they began to be puffed up, and boast of the great difference which God did make; but quickly after, they all fell alike. Yet not many pious ministers were taken away: I remember but three, who were all of my own acquaintance.
‘It is scarce possible for people, that live in a time of health and security, to apprehend the dreadfulness of that pestilence! How fearful people were, thirty or forty, if not a hundred miles from London, of anything that they bought from any mercer’s or draper’s shop! or of any goods that were brought to them! or of any person that came to their houses! How they would shut their doors against their friends! and, if a man passes over the fields, how one would avoid another, as we did in the time of wares; and how every man was a terror to another! Oh, how sinfully unthankful are we for our quiet societies, habitations, and health!’
Many of the ejected ministers seized the opportunity of preaching in the neglected or deserted pulpits, and in the public places of resort, to the terror-stricken inhabitants of London; and blessed results followed. ‘Those heard them one day often, that were sick the next, and quickly died. The face of death did so awaken both the preachers and the hearers, that preachers exceeded themselves in lively, fervent preaching, and the people crowded constantly to hear them; and all was done with such great seriousness, as that, through the blessing of God, abundance were converted from their carelessness, inpenitency, and youthful lusts and vanities; and religion took that hold on the people’s hearts, as could never afterward be loosed.” – Richard Baxter, from Richard Baxter, The Pastor’s Pastor (Baxter was a Reformed pastor in the 17th century, and both a prolific and influential writer.)

Note from JWR:

We now offer a couple of additional payment options for book orders and for 10 Cent Challenge subscriptions: both AlertPay and GearPay. (We prefer AlertPay or GearPay because they don’t share PayPal’s anti-gun political agenda.) In my experience, AlertPay has a frustratingly labyrinthine account set-up procedure, but GearPay seems much quicker and easier to set up.
Our AlertPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our GearPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our PayPal address is: rawles@earthlink.net

Letter Re: The Derivatives Bubble

I wanted to say thanks so much for the excellent derivatives article. [“Derivatives–The Mystery Man Who’ll Break the Global Bank at Monte Carlo.”] I speculate in this market and wholly share your opinion about what exists, the ignorance of the implications, and the clear and present danger to the lifestyle of everyone on the planet. Keep up the good work with the blog and with excellent articles such as this. Respectfully, – CMC

Letter Re: Rootkit Protection for Your Computer

Jim,
Here is some info on what is presently a freeware application which I can quite-honestly classify as in the “Save Your Bacon” category. (it sure saved my rump, on at least one very significant occasion.) It does its’ job, it is small, and it is freeware. My conscience would bother me no end if I kept this gem to myself; perhaps you and/or the blog might benefit from this goody. – Ben L.

Letter Re: Yet Another Article Touting “Mobility” for Survival

Jim:
Thank you for response on the mobile survival fantasy. I think it is dangerous for the average Joe to believe that he can be a mountain man. Sure, some can, in some climates and locations with lots of training. Even then it’s dangerous and unpredictable. A twisted ankle can be the end of you. Remember too, those mountain survival stories were from the days when the wildlife in this country was at much higher levels. For most of us it means being cold, wet, tired, hungry and thirsty in the woods and being targets on the streets. (“Nice pack man, what ‘cha got in there? Hey, your wife/daughter sure looks purty…”)
Other pet peeves of mine are the twin television fantasies regarding water and guns. First thing you notice on TV ‘survival scenes’ is the lack of packed water. The heroes mount up with their guns and attitude, but… no water? Yup, it’s heavy to pack and takes up space. Nope, there are no water fountains in the woods. The communal fountains that people could drink out of are mostly gone from cities. True, most cities were founded by the water for transportation, but that means you need either a water distiller/desalinator for the oceans or a really good filter for the rivers. Drinking the water from a river in a major city might work months after a TEOTWAWKI when upstream factories shut down and stop using the river as a toilet, but for now it’s really nasty.
Just imagine walking through a city with the stores closed/burned/looted and the the water pressure gone. I grew up in NYC and the only place I can think of to get water in that scenario would be the reservoir in Harlem. A dangerous place in the best of times. Also, with a pack, you’ll sweat more. I can get by on very little water in my office, but on a trail with a pack in the noon day sun I get dehydrated real fast.
Television peeve #2 is the one shot kill (and one punch knock out). Just shoot the bad guy once and he’s down? Unless it is a central nervous system hit (spinal cord or brain) he’s not down. Even a heart shot gives him enough time, say 6 seconds, to stab you or shoot back if he’s angry or drugged enough. How far can a man run in 6 seconds? Will he close the gap? It’s not whether the bad guy dies from the wounds you inflict on him, it’s whether you kill him in such a way as to deny him the ability to return the favor.

FWIW, here is a compilation of my top 15 survival fantasies and misconceptions:

1. You can fit everything you need for extended survival in a backpack
2. A single shot not hitting the brain or spinal cord less or than .40/.44/.45 caliber will stop an attacker before he can kill you
3. I don’t need to bring that much water
4. The government is here to help
5. I’m in good enough shape right now to hike 20 miles with a 70 pound pack
6. Everything I have stored still works, hasn’t expired, I know how to use it and I know where it is
7. I can buy what I need at the first sign of impending crisis
8. My kids can keep up with me on an extended hike
9. Farming/livestock/hunting/fishing/trapping are easy to learn from a book, I don’t need practical experience
10. God will help me. I’ll be in the right place at the right time if I am a good person
11. I can argue/discuss/bargain with a bad guy(s). I don’t have to shoot them.
12. If I shoot them, I can wound them, I don’t have to kill.
13. By virtue of my obvious survival knowledge, foresight and preparedness, my family/friends/neighbors will agree that I am the best suited to lead our newly formed fledgling survival group and will listen and carry out my suggestions.
14. Life in TEOTWAWKI will be fun. Since there will be no more taxes/bills/mortgage to pay and I don’t have to show up for work it will be hard but rewarding. Add that to the satisfaction of being able to say “I told you so” and given my preparations, I’ll be better off then than I am now.
15. My stash of silver pre-1965 coins will let me live like a king

Survival fantasies. We all have them, and we all need to lose them. – SF in Hawaii

Odds ‘n Sods:

Former CIA energy analyst Tom Whipple reports: The Peak Oil Crisis: Congressional Hearings – Round #2

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Cathy Buckle reports from Zimbabwe: Police crackdown on illegal small scale miners leads to deaths. Just more of the same government heavy-handedness in troubled Zimbabwe. The once quite productive and prosperous nation is now chronically racked by hyperinflation. Speaking of inflation, be sure to scroll down to Cathy’s January 6th post, which includes this: “Before Christmas a loaf of bread was 295 dollars, now it is 850 dollars – the bakers say its still not enough to cover their costs and more rises are imminent…”

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A tip of the hat to John the Bowhunter for sending this news article on the “cytokine storm” effect:: 1918 flu killed by turning the body against itself

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Next to the right of liberty, the right of property is the most important individual right guaranteed by the Constitution and the one which, united with that of personal liberty, has contributed more to the growth of civilization than any other institution established by the human race." – William Howard Taft

The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

At the dawn of the 21st century, we are living in an amazing time of prosperity. Our health care is excellent, our grocery store shelves burgeon with a huge assortment of fresh foods, and our telecommunications systems are lightning fast. We have relatively cheap transportation, and our cities are linked by an elaborate and fairly well-maintained system of roads, rails, canals, seaports, and airports. For the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s population will soon live in cities rather than in the countryside. But the downside to all this abundance is over-complexity, over-specialization, and lengthy supply chains. In the First World, less than 2% of the population is engaged in agriculture or fishing. Ponder that for a moment: Just 2% are feeding the other 98%. The food on our tables often comes from hundreds if not thousands of miles away. Our heating and lighting is provided by power sources typically hundreds of miles away. For many people even their tap water travels hundreds of miles. Our factories produce sophisticated cars and electronics that have subcomponents that are sourced on three continents. It is as if we are all cogs in an enormous invisible machine, each playing our part to make sure that the average Americans comes home from work each day to find: his refrigerator well-stocked with food, his lights reliably come on, his telephone works, his tap gushes pure water, his toilet flushes, his paycheck is automatically deposited to his bank, his garbage is collected, his house is a comfortable 70 degrees, his TV entertainment up and running 24/7, and his DSL connection. We’ve built our fellow Americans a very big machine that up until now has worked remarkably well, with just a few glitches. But that may not always be the case. As Napoleon found the hard way, long chains of supply and communication are fragile and vulnerable. Someday the big machine may grind to a halt. Let me describe one set of circumstances that could cause that to happen:

Imagine an influenza pandemic, spread by causal contact, that is so virulent that it kills more than half of the people that are infected. And imagine the advance of the disease so rapid that it makes its way around the globe in less than a week. (Isn’t modern jet air travel grand?) Consider that we have global news media that is so rabid for “hot” news that they can’t resist showing pictures of men in respirators, rubber gloves, and Tyvek coveralls wheeling gurneys out of houses, laden with body bags. They report countless stories like: “Suzie Smith brought the flu bug home from school. Everyone in her family died.” and, “Mr. Jones brought the flu home from work. Everyone in his family died.” Over and over. Repeated so many times that the majority of citizens decides “I’m not going to go to work tomorrow, or the day after, or in fact until after ‘things get better.'” But by not going to work, some important cogs will be missing from the Big Machine. Orders won’t get processed at the Wal-Mart distribution center. The 18 Wheel trucks won’t make deliveries to groceries stores. Gas stations will run out of fuel. Policemen and firemen won’t show up at work. Telephone technicians will call in sick. Power lines will get knocked down in wind storms, and there will be nobody to repair them. Crops will rot in the fields because there will be nobody to pick them, or transport them, or magically bake them into Pop-Tarts, or stock them on your supermarket shelf. The Big Machine will be broken.

Does this sound scary? Sure it does, and it should. The implications are huge. But it gets worse: The average suburbanite only has about a week’s worth of food in their pantry. What will they do when it is gone, and there is no reasonably immediate prospect of re-supply? Supermarket shelves will be stripped bare. Faced with the alternative of staying home and starving or going out to meet Mr. Influenza, millions of growling stomachs will force Joe American to go and “forage.” The first likely targets will be restaurants, stores, and food distribution warehouses. Not a few “foragers” will soon transition to full scale looting, taking the little that their neighbors have left. Next, they’ll move on to farms that are in close proximity to cities. A few looters will form gangs that will be highly mobile and well-armed, ranging deeper and deeper into farmlands, running their vehicles on siphoned or stolen-at-gunpoint gasoline. Eventually their luck will run out and they will all die of the flu, or of instantaneous lead poisoning. But before the looters are all dead they will do a tremendous amount of damage. Be ready to confront them. Your life, and the lives of your loved ones will count on it. You’ll need to be able to put a lot of lead down range–at least enough to convince Mr. Looter that he needs to go find some other farm or ranch to loot.

In recent months, the press has shifted its attention, ignoring the continuing threat of Asian Avian Flu mutating into a strain that can be easily transmitted between humans. If and when that mutation occurs–and the epidemiologists tell us that it is more a question of “when” rather than “if”–then things could turn very, very ugly all over the globe. Be prepared. To start getting ready, you should first read the background article on pandemic preparation that I wrote last year, titled “Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic.” Next, think through all of the implications of disruption of key portions of our modern technological infrastructure. Plan accordingly. You need to be able to provide water, food, heating, and lighting for your family. Ditto for law enforcement, since odds are that a pandemic will be YOYO (“You’re on your own!”) time. Get your beans, bullets, and band-aids squared away, pronto. Most importantly, be prepared to hunker down in “self quarantine” for three or four months, with no outside contact. That will take a lot of logistics, as well as plenty of cash on hand to pay your bills in the absence of a continuing income stream.

One closing thought: There are only about 15 large food storage dealers in the country, and even fewer firms that sell non-hybrid (“heirloom”) gardening seed. How long do you think that their inventories will last, once there is news that there is an easily transmissible human-to-human flu strain of flu, anywhere on the planet? Prices are currently low and inventories are plentiful. It is better to be a year too early than a day too late. Please consider patronizing one of more of our advertisers. We have half a dozen of them that sell long term storage food and heirloom garden seed. They deserve your business.

Letter Re: Advice on Silver Coins and Silver Certificates

Dear Jim:
I am new to survival preparedness but I am learning by reading SurvivalBlog every day and your book Patriots. I do have a question about junk silver. My dad always collected coins when I was a kid and he always told me about saving the ones from before 1965 as they were silver and I have a small stash from those years. But what about the [Eisenhower] “silver dollars” from the 1970’s? I always got those as gifts when I was a kid and I have a small stash of those too. Do these “silver dollars” have any real silver in them? Are they worth keeping with my “junk silver” stash? What about the new Liberty “Silver Dollars” that the banks sell each year? Do they contain real silver? Are they worth the $17 per coin the that bank charges for these? And finally, I have some old “Silver Certificate” Dollar bills – any thoughts as to if those will have any worth in a SHTF scenario? Thanks for your help.
– L.C.A. in N.Y.

JWR Replies: Take a look at the rims of those Eisenhower”silver” dollars. If they have a copper color streak, then they have no significant silver contents. (Like the post-1964 quarters, they are a silver-flashed copper-nickel token.) There were a few Eisenhower dollars minted in 90% silver as “mint proofs”, struck especially for the collector market. These special silver proof coins will not show any copper on the rim. Nearly al of those will still be in special U.S. Mint holders, but it is conceivable that a few were removed from their holders and are floating around loose. It is worth your time to examine them. But the ones that are clad tokens only have marginal collector’s value

The “Liberty Dollars” and other one ounce silver rounds and bars–typically .999 fine (99.9%) silver–have been struck in large numbers by private mints over the years. Like the U.S. Mint American Eagle silver rounds, they are indeed pure silver. Silver one ounce rounds and bars are first sold at a huge premium over the spot price of silver. (At least 50%), but on the secondary market, they sell at just “spot”–the day’s current price of silver. I prefer pre-1965 U.S. coinage for barter–since they are more immediately recognized as genuine by the citizenry. But if you ever have the chance to buy some one ounce “rounds” right at or just over the current spot price of silver, then that would be worth purchasing.

Sadly, U.S. Silver Certificates have had no redeemability for silver since 1964. (Yet another broken promise from Uncle Sugar. They are marked “In Silver, Payable to Bearer on Demand”, but what they should have had printed is: “In Silver, Payable to Bearer on Demand, until we renege on our promise, then it’s tough Schumer for you.”) If a silver certificate $1 note is in minty condition, and depending on its issue series, it could be worth several dollars to a currency collector. (To currency collectors, condition is everything. They want notes that look brand new, with no signs of wear, folding, or discoloration.) Unless you intend to be a collector in the long term you are probably better off trading those notes to a coin shop for some circulated “junk” silver dimes or quarters that you could use for barter. Who knows, if you are lucky they might even give you $1 worth (in face value) of well-worn 90% silver coinage for each of those notes.