Letter Re: The US Stock Market–A Net Loss for Investors Since 1999

Mr. Rawles,
In all the discussion about the [US] supreme court [Second Amendment] ruling, today’s stock market plunge may have been overlooked. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11453.42. That’s just over half a point gain to date for the millennium. On December 10, 1999, (8-1/2 years ago) the Dow closed at 11452.86. In the years since then, our country has grown by tens of millions of people, and the most optimistic estimates of inflation average 2-to-3% annually. But the market is up only 0.005%.
As [the pop music singer] Prince might say, “Party like it’s 1929.” – Robert E.

JWR Replies: You are correct in your observation that on average, US stock market investors have lost ground to inflation since late 1999. There have been some noteworthy exceptions, but almost like walking in the doors of a casino, the law of averages has been against US equities investors. There is an old saying on Wall Street: “Nobody beats the bear.” With the current economic climate, I don’t expect the outlook for stocks to improve. In fact, given the collapse of the global credit market since the summer of Aught Seven, I wouldn’t be surprised to see outright collapse of the stock market.

If, instead of stocks, someone had bought silver in December of 1999, they would presently be miles ahead . In December of 1999, silver was selling for around $5.25 per ounce.When I last checked, it as at $17.37 per ounce–well over a 300% gain.

If someone had bought bulk military surplus .308 (7.62 mm NATO) ammunition in December of 1999 it would have cost as a little as $219 per 1,000 rounds in sealed “battle packs”. Identical ammunition now sells for as much as $610 per thousand.

If someone had bought bulk hard red winter wheat in December of 1999 it would have cost around $10.80 per 100 pounds, if purchased in 50 pound sacks. It now sells for $23 to $29 per hundredweight, if you can find it. (OBTW, if you call any of the big food storage food vendors like Walton Feed, they will likely tell you that they presently don’t sell what in bulk sacks. They are probably setting aside the little that they have left to nitrogen pack in #10 cans.)

The coming decade will likely be the decade of “I Told You So”, for survivalists. For now, and for at least for the next few years tangibles will rule!

Notes from JWR:

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Today’s first post is by “Jeff Trasel”. Those of you that have read my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” will recognize this real-life individual as the basis for one of the novel’s characters. He is a former USMC (Force Recon) NCO that went on to work in high tech industry and more recently has lived abroad and pursued a Master’s degree and later a Doctorate degree.

The Warrior Way as Survival Strategy: Attune Yourself to a Martial Mindset in Daily Living, by Jeff Trasel

One of the constant knocks by the mainstream media on the preparedness movement is the oft-touted canard that preparedness, indeed the “survivalist” mindset is nothing more than an excuse by far-right loons to engage in Rambo-esque fantasies of firearms, firefights and macho posturing. While there is a scintilla of truth to this in some far dark quarters of doomsday lunacy, it is for the most part fiction. (This matches JWR’s caveat on discussing unregistered suppressors [in the US] or other illegal preparations). So that we bring no discredit on what is nothing more than prudence, perhaps a few short observations can be proffered here so those of a serious nature can learn to assume a proper martial mindset without resorting to hysteria.

Preparedness, survival, or any other euphemism one can assign to our interest is as much mindset as gear, land or other physical manifestation of prudence. It is in itself a way of life that incorporates simple daily teachings, practice, and when training, the incorporation of real-life situational aspects that can better model an actual emergency scenario or a situation of social unrest. Any competent defense professional will say that greatest advantage in warfare is information, followed by logistics, then combat power. It’s no use having the greatest army in the world if you don’t know where the enemy is nor if you can’t you feed your troops. As Napoleon so famously postulated, an army marches on its stomach.

So with those adages in mind, how does one prioritize daily living to more readily understand these concepts? We all have things we do on a daily basis, so the question of incorporation becomes one of time management, especially given the marvelous source of information now available in today’s 24 hour “always on” culture. For instance, instead of perusing the morning newspaper or watching the morning breakfast, find several reputable financial news sources such as the online versions of the The Wall Street Journal or Barron’s. Start educating yourself on how markets move, how seemingly insignificant moves in commodities or futures, such as pork or wheat can have a direct impact on your daily life. This also gives you markers to start creating your own scenario planning data for acquisition planning, and in the worst case, a timeline for moving to your retreat. American’s are notorious for living in a bubble, in what is now a deeply materialistic culture, and missing the obvious signs of downturns both in the US and abroad. This new discipline has an upside as well, in that by becoming a more financially-aware individual, you can make more informed decisions on how to manage cash flow or even become a day-trader, freeing up capital for other, more serious purposes. Understanding the world around you, looking at information as intelligence rather than simple factoids and being aware of the bits and pieces that can provide a different and in many instances, a more accurate picture of what is really going on, is a skill that will pay one back in spades. Think outside the box!

Next, personal fitness is a must. In any crisis situation, adrenalin levels, stress, even physical injury can manifest themselves in a variety of ways that can cripple or terminate the best laid plans. It is therefore mandatory that anyone considering a preparedness strategy baseline their family health. The advantages of this are twofold: first, it gives one an idea of how much exercise they will need to incorporate into daily life to bring them to a level of basic fitness of a recruit in the US Army, ideally the Marines, which is not as hard as it may appear. Second, this will aid in identifying a medicine acquisition plan for family members so you are not caught short in a crisis situation. There won’t be heart or blood pressure tablets around if the mob has burned all the Walgreen [Pharmacies]. Gun shows are great places to get surplus, mil spec-quality first aid equipment, along with catalog houses that supply paramedics or EMS personnel. The best book on the subject is the US Army Special Forces Medical Manual, available anywhere, along with “Where There is No Doctor” and “Where There is No Dentist”. (I will cover medicine in a survival situation in greater detail in another post.) Learn how to take your blood pressure, especially pre- and post-exercise so you understand the difference between resting and active pulse. The various military physical fitness programs are all available on the web. Pick one that you can realistically follow upon consulting your physician, and then be rigorous in its application.

You want lean, endurance-based conditioning – not necessarily big bulky SEAL-like muscles. I can remember from my [USMC Force] Recon days watching these guys while with them at dive school, getting all bulked-up and then not being able to run worth a damn with my fellow Marines. You want endurance, endurance, endurance. Muscles will come, and remember: shooting skills are as much a kata as a karate movement and are technique-based on a solid, lithe platform. Incorporate a martial art into your training regimen if possible. This can be a speed bag, or large punching bag, dojo work, sparring with a partner or any other self-defense program. These teach discipline, respect for the art, and most importantly, stamina and situational awareness, all priceless skills in a crisis situation. These types of activities begin to solidify the warrior mindset, and in solidifying this mindset, you now assume the duty, indeed the responsibility to only use these skills in the protection of kith and kin, and not as a license to bully, cajole, or simply show-off. Many years ago my first sensei gave me an axiom that rings very true: “One warrior may spot another in an instant. Be it by the way he moves or by the way people avoid him. The problem lies when would-be warriors and/or fools attack a true warrior. The fool may seem to back the warrior down, but the warrior knows by instinct that he outclasses the opponent and does nothing, or just kills.” By increasing you martial acuity, you will soon learn to spot fools, an invaluable skill not only in crisis situations, but in life in general.

Learn to live in the outdoors. Go camping or hiking with your family as much as possible. Carry weight when you hike, so you get used to load bearing. Increase it, and record you accomplishments. Not only is it great exercise, but it allows for team-building activities and provides an avenue to understand group dynamics and how task-oriented your family is or is not and what your personal and familial endurance levels are and should be. Bring map and compass and learn orienteering skills, and if possible, find the local orienteering club and go on organized compass courses when you can. Land navigation is an invaluable skill along with map reading (topographic – not your normal service station map of greater Canton…). This was the greatest challenge when I attended [US Army] Ranger school, the skills of pace-setting and azimuth shooting, particularly at night. Remember, you may not have the luxury of G.O.O.D. as a family unit, so it is imperative everyone know how to find your retreat, rally point, or rendezvous site by azimuth and location. Moreover, in fleeing, you may need to alter your route intentionally if pursued, and you will want to keep your bearings so you eventually end-up where you need to be. This will help bond your family unit, and help in math skills with kids. Thinking on your feet and being able to understand where you are without navigational aids is the ideal. Hold a rehearsal drill with a prize or incentive at least yearly. Also have a vehicle plan that works on the same level – and here any of the relatively inexpensive commercial GPS systems can be a great help. However, don’t become reliant on them, as they fail, they require power, and they can be tracked. Map and compass are best – master them. Have your kids join the scouting movement in your area as this will also provide an inroad to appreciating living rough. I learned more about outdoor living in my 10 years of scouting than was ever taught to me in the many schools (with the exception of S.E.R.E. – Survival, Evasion, Rescue, and Escape) that I attended whilst in the military. Lastly, get local guidebooks that identify edible plants and animals indigenous to your potential egress/retreat area. Again, take the family out and do some plant, bird, and animal spotting. Knowing how animals behave – particularly what they eat – can give you insight into how they react around humans, particular those humans not know to them. Understand the ebb and flow of the environment around your egress and retreat area. The warrior knows his terrain intimately and it is a force-multiplier in a crisis situation. From the Art of War, on the Varieties of Terrain for the commander: “if ignorant of the conditions of mountains, forests, dangerous defiles, swamps and marshes he cannot conduct the march of the army…”

We’ve now started to look at incorporate an intelligence gathering outlook on life, followed by a fit state of readiness for the unexpected, now what about conflict? Unless you live in a state that allows concealed carry, you most likely will not have much experience in the carry of, or more importantly, the skills of living with loaded firearms. The old soldier’s adage of training as you will fight is key here: living with live weapons does not impart a casual familiarity that can lead to tragedy, more so the understanding of levels of readiness depending on the scenario. Combat pistol and rifle craft will be followed in another post and there as many philosophies as there are gurus. I subscribe to the school of Jeff Cooper and Mel Tappan, and readers are encouraged to seek out their writings. Suffice to say, in regards to our emerging warrior ethos, the idea is mastery, as a weapon is only as effective as the mindset and situational awareness of the person wielding that weapon. Begin to think of becoming one with your chosen piece; don’t choose a combat handgun, rifle or shotgun simply on caliber and aesthetic appeal. You want to ensure you have good grip control, eye relief (for rifles) and for shotguns, that the stock fits snugly when snapping the weapon to your shoulder. This is especially critical when fitting weapons for women and children. Your martial mentality is the platform for that weapon to be effective so it is imperative it feel comfortable. Next, find an air pistol and air rifle that resemble your chosen battery. Rather than wasting ammo “snapping-in” on the range (and fielding potential embarrassing and/or curious questions), use these tools to get the feel for breath control, trigger pull and eye relief. Use toy soldiers to simulate range. If you pick a particularly loud air rifle, check local ordnances prior to beginning your training. I have used air pistols in my garage for many years with no problem. Just ensure you have sufficient target backing. You will be amazed by how well you shoot your live weaponry once you’ve disciplined your stance, breathing and bench positions with the air weapons.

One of the reasons I stress familiarity with a martial art is that all involve a relatively similar pre-contact stance. That is, feet slightly wider than shoulder width, a light bend in the knees coupled with a straight back and slight relaxation in the elbows in a punching position. This easily translates into the FBI “A” (“triangle,” “apex,” etc.) shooting position when using a pistol. There are a variety of shooting stances; find one you’re comfortable with and practice it until it becomes rote. I like to shoot on BLM land where I can set up a loose range with a variety of targets that can simulate a variety of situations. Moreover, one can carry side arms “live,’ the most important part of the exercise. Always use caution and appoint one of your group as range master. I cannot emphasize enough the importance in warrior thought of acclimation to daily use of one’s weapons. Each pistol, rifle and shotgun, and the associated ammunition and accessories, all have specific, indeed quirky, characteristics that are best discovered and addressed in a benign environment. Another advantage of the informal range is practicing contact drills in the form of fast draw and point shooting; again, topics for another time, but key to the mindset. In conjunction with the mechanics of the draw and basic tactical levels (safe – elevated – hostile), there is the consideration of dress and load-bearing equipment. We’ve all seen pictures of militia-types and airsoft rifle enthusiasts kitted-out to the nines, but in reality, no warrior worth their salt dresses in such a poseur fashion.

Kit should be scenario, then mission-driven. It’s ok to mix commercial and military gear, as it gives you the best of both worlds, along with adaptability and more importantly, a covert OPSEC profile. One need not run around in camouflage with chickenplate-enabled body armor and all the other stuff that goes with such a mindset in order to present a hardened, tactical, preparedness profile. Try running 10 to100 yard wind sprints with what you consider to be “appropriate” gear, along with running up and down hills, pausing frequently to set-up a shooting position, and you will soon see what gear is needed and what quickly proves superfluous. Moreover, one quickly grasps the need for constant conditioning, proper diet, and rest – again, train with the gear you intend to use in your preparedness planning. Crisis situations entail short-burst energy requirements, breath control, noise and movement discipline and a host of soft-skills that are much more important than having “cool” gear. You may have the slickest web gear, a trick battery of personal defense weaponry, and way-cool “digital” cammies, but if you’re too winded to hold an aim point, too thirsty sucking down water like there’s no tomorrow (and at that rate, there won’t be…), or cramping and puking for lack of salt, you are now ineffective as a resource, a drain on those dependent on you, and more likely dead, as you were not sufficiently aware tactically, as you were too troubled sorting yourself out… The warrior is ready at all times, and uniformly effective, regardless of time, place, or contingency.
I rarely wore the same load bearing equipment (LBE) configuration twice, as operational contexts were always different.

The axioms I lived by were simple enough: keep your [front] belt area free of any pouches or protuberances; this allows you to lie flush when rounds start flying; next, position you main weapon’s magazine pouches on your side, slightly behind your hip or ideally, over your kidneys, as again, when prone, they are easier to access without elevating your profile. You drink more than you shoot, so canteens can be located at the traditional hip pistol position; use [CamelBak-type water] bladders where possible, as they are less noisy, hold more, and can double as a pillow, rifle rest or anything else you can come-up with. 1 qt. plastic mil spec canteens are fine, but I normally carried them on my main LBE framed knapsack or butt back. Use mass to distribute weight (your hiking with weight pays off here). If you do use them on your waist belt, ensure they are positioned in such a way that you won’t injure yourself collapsing quickly on the deck, nor are they in the way of your weapons carry. Never attach a side-arm to an LBE belt that leaves your body. Drop-leg pistol holsters seem all the rage, and for Close Quarters Battle (CQB) and urban warfare, they have a place. In a retreat scenario, less-so, as they will hang on fencing, drag on brush, and hamper quick ingress and egress from vehicles. Use good quality leather or black nylon (i.e. low-profile, non-martial appearing) pistol dress when not in tactical mode, and again, wear it as often as possible so it becomes second-nature. Shoulder holsters are good for this as well; just ensure it fits, can carry spare magazines, and that you have practiced drawing from the holster so it is not a liability. As to holster location, again, this is personal preference, as some like to cross-draw (i.e. a right-handed shooter holsters their piece on the left hip, magazine facing the target, and draws across the body) or use the simple hip draw. [JWR Adds: The disadvantages of cross-draw rigs have been previously discussed in the blog.] Concealed carry is much in the same vein, although by its very nature, you normally carry a smaller weapon, using a variety of purpose-built holsters on the arms, legs, inside the belt, or small of the back. I like the small of the back myself. Constantly experiment with your LBE until it is no longer “fiddly” and fits and works the way you desire. Run in it, dive on the ground in it, get it wet, understand how it behaves in a variety of circumstances. Use black electrical tape, or ideally, mil spec“100 mph tape” (in reality, olive-colored gaffer tape) to secure loose straps and to cover metal or plastic tabs or sharp edges that might become noisy or otherwise problematic in use. Don’t use black duct tape as it is too sticky and leaves a residue that gets on everything.

In recapping the warrior mentality relative to equipment, remember that less is indeed more; the more you pre-place, the less you need in a bug-out kit. Blend in and look “conformist” as much as possible, using situational awareness, concealed carry, and normal attire when going about your business in urban and non-conflict rural areas. Don’t depend entirely on surplus or new mil spec gear; use the best kit for the job, but more so, maintaining a martial “look” may draw the authority’s attention or encourage other fools of a tin soldier mentality to take you on. Adjust your kit profile to the appropriate level of security and risk and you should be fine. Lastly, you must reconcile in your mind the concept of deadly force. Regardless of how prepared your scenario, you may be forced to confront those that wish you harm, and you will die if you start the mental ethical thought process at the contact point. Knowing your tools, knowing where to shoot, and understanding the need to shoot will allow you the upper hand when dealing with fools. Concise action can often abrogate the need for violence; so again, preparedness can be as much a tool of avoidance as much as kinetic action. Deadly force will comprise several upcoming posts and I will also provide a topical reading list in the next few weeks, addressing not only use of deadly force, but the warrior mindset, how to plan and what constitutes strategy, tactics, and conflict. In the meantime, start thinking about times you’ve been scared, or in a heightened state of anxiety, or even shot at. What went on in your mind? How perceptive were you? What physiological signs manifest themselves? How did you compensate? In short, begin to analyze things from an angle of what you would do, say in an airplane crash or severe auto accident – I call this reaction planning, and it will save your life. Understand that danger has constants, just like any other natural phenomena. The more you think of “what-ifs?” the more you will be ready for crisis.

In closing, preparedness, like any other skill, is much, much more mental than physical. The successful preparedness planner is in essence a renaissance thinker, as you must understand and appreciate a variety of skills, and master the most critical at least at a basic level. In creating this series of articles, I will be working with a variety of assumptions: many of my readers will have had some military or scouting background, and possess a passing familiarity with firearms. You may have only just started to think about contingency planning, and I encourage you to mine the marvelous resources of SurvivalBlog. Next, that you have families, and you intend to incorporate your family or immediate friends or relatives into your planning; also, you are in the early days of simply trying to sort through the myth and reality of what the preparedness movement and mindset entails, along with the commiserate moral, ethical, and practical considerations one must entertain to not only thrive in a crisis situation, but also maintain the social mores of being a good citizen, neighbor and staying within the remit of reasoned law. And like a good scout: Be Prepared… Stay tuned! – “Jeff Trasel”

Victory in the DC v. Heller US Supreme Court Decision–With Some Reservations

I was pleased to hear of the recent DC v. Heller US supreme court decision that affirmed that the “right to keep and bear arms” is indeed an individual right of all citizens. However, I was disappointed to see that the court used circular logic in their assumptions on what constituted firearms “in common use” Just as I warned back in March, (immediately following the oral arguments), the court relied on arguments made by Mr. Gura (the plaintiff’s attorney). In my opinion, Gura’s arguments were a disservice to American gun owners and “the militia at large”. (Which consists of all male citizens age 17 to 45, per US Code Title 10, Section 311.) Gura discounted any Second Amendment protection for machineguns, because he claims that the Second Amendments protects only those guns “in common use” as suitable for individuals to bring from their homes, for their personal use in service with the militia. Gura stated:

“They wished to preserve the ability of people to act as militia, and so there was certainly no plan for, say, a technical obsolescence. However, the fact is that [US v.] Miller spoke very strongly about the fact that people were expected to bring arms supplied by themselves of the kind in common use at the time. So if in this time people do not have, or are not recognized by any court to have, a common application for, say, a machine gun or a rocket launcher or some other sort of …”

That was a specious argument. What Gura overlooked is the fact that machineguns are not presently “in common use” only because 74 years ago, Congress effectively banned them, by placing a confiscatory tax and onerous fingerprinting and background check requirements upon purchasers. It is a tax of $200 per machinegun transfer. (Which was a huge sum of money, in 1934.) Machineguns would be in fairly common use today in the US by private citizens, if it were not for the National Firearms Act. Oddly, I find myself siding in part with Justice Breyer (one of the liberal softies on the bench) who stated in the dissenting opinion:

“Nor is it at all clear to me how the majority decides which loaded “arms” a homeowner may keep. The majority says that that Amendment protects those weapons “typically possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes.” Ante, at 53. This definition conveniently excludes machineguns, but permits handguns, which the majority describes as “the most popular weapon chosen by Americans for self-defense in the home.” Ante, at 57; see also ante, at 54–55. But what sense does this approach make? According to the majority’s reasoning, if Congress and the States lift restrictions on the possession and use of machineguns, and people buy machineguns to protect their homes, the Court will have to reverse course and find that the Second Amendment does, in fact, protect the individual self-defense-related right to possess a machinegun. On the majority’s reasoning, if tomorrow someone invents a particularly useful, highly dangerous self defense weapon, Congress and the States had better ban it immediately, for once it becomes popular Congress will no longer possess the constitutional authority to do so. In essence, the majority determines what regulations are permissible by looking to see what existing regulations permit. There is no basis for believing that the Framers intended such circular reasoning.”

It will be interesting to see how the precedent set by Heller will be applied –possibly overturning other unconstitutional gun laws at the State and Federal level. I am hopeful that Heller will be the death knell of such laws, but the realist in me can see the waffling and back-peddling included in the decision. (With phrases citing ““laws forbidding the carrying of firearms in sensitive places such as schools and government buildings””.) Let’s wait and see. Who knows, you may find full autos on the tables at your local gun show in a few years, available for “cash and carry” sale.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “EM Joe” mentioned that from Noon on Saturday, June 28th to Noon on Sunday, June 29th, it is “the annual US Ham Radio Field Day. About a half a million radio operators will leave their cozy houses and head out to the Great Outdoors with their Tents, Radios and Antennas to simulate a massive emergency situation. This is the whole idea of Field Day, to let Ham Radio Operators all do this on the same day, using every possible radio they got in every possible way. It is almost a religious event. This will allow you to hear how well it works, how well it could be used for Intel, and oh yes, how crowded the radio spectrum would get! For more info about Ham Radio Field Day you can look at the ARRL web site.”

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RBS flagged this: Alaskans would get $1,200 each to offset energy costs under Palin’s plan

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A useful article: Cost Effective Practice–Combating the High Cost of Ammo. I’ll add the proviso that the safety rules for dry practice cannot be over-emphasized. FWIW, the dry practice safety rules available from Front Sight (included in their free gun training reports) are superior, since even more explicit.

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Courtesy of Jack B.: CIBC report: high gas prices to take 10 million vehicles off U.S. roads by 2012

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess a firearm unconnected with service in a militia, and to use that arm for traditionally lawful purposes, such as self-defense within the home." – DC v. Heller, decided June 26, 2008

Note from JWR:

The following is another article for Round 17 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win two valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 17 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Lessons From Grandpa–Firewood Cutting for Seasonal Employment, by JSW

Grandpa was never one of my favorite people. He wasn’t a bad person, just that I thought he could be more like the grandfathers in the books I was reading.
Born in November, 1893, in north-central Minnesota, a World War One veteran and farmer, he moved to his last residence in 1952. So he’d grown up in a rough and tumble era, had a rough life and died owning his home, his truck, and a full baker’s dozen children had been born to him and Grandma- who I did like a lot more. Probably because she made bread daily, filled the house with its wonderful aroma. Of course, she had work for us kids, too.

It was with his background that he taught us boys a few things. When working now, at home or on the job, I often think of those lessons learned, albeit unwillingly learned at the time. Too, quite often I find myself in conversation with Grandpa as I go about the chores.
Splitting wood just a few days ago, I heard his voice clearly scolding me. “That should have been done last winter, not this spring.”
“ Right, Grandpa,” I replied. He was right, of course.

Firewood is best gathered in the deep of winter- for many reasons. First, but not most important, is that there’s no plowing or gardening to do in Minnesota in January. Second, in the deep of winter, there is little sap in the wood- it’s all in the roots waiting next spring, so it dries faster/more easily. It also cuts and splits more easily. Too, getting wood is hard, hot, sweaty work. Doing it in winter cuts back on the sweat factor by ten or more.

“ That’s not very good wood,” he told me.
No, it isn’t: I was splitting Jack pine. Stump dead, it was weathered and beginning to rot around the edges. But it makes a very good wood for autumn days when it isn’t really cold, or in the spring for the same reason. In the dead of winter, preferable woods are oak, ash, birch, and maple, in that order. These all burn with good heat, not so hot as to risk burning out a good/new/quality stove. Birch and maple are sappy woods, create quite a creosote problem if they’re not fully dried. Let them hang a couple years and they burn clean, don’t clog the chimney much at all. Oak and ash burn well, cleanly and hot. (Ash has a urine smell when it burns, however, so don’t get the smoke indoors.) Lesser woods to burn are tamarack/larch: this wood is excellent for heat, burns hotter than oak and ash, even. Which is its problem: burning too much tamarack will burn out your stove, or through it if it isn’t well-built. Poplar is a soft-hardwood, burns well with medium heat output and, as a tree species, grows quickly, dies almost as quickly. Its biggest drawback is that it’s really hard to stack due to the slippery bark. Jack pine, white pine and sometimes Norway are used as firewood- though anything will work in a pinch- soft pines, they contain some heat but not really enough for cold-cold winters. Other pines- spruce and balsam are worthless for home heat.

Grandpa’s voice cut into my thinking as I sliced a two inch thick piece of branch so I had to tell him, “It’s for kindling, Grandpa. Besides, this splitter makes it so easy I just enjoy it.” Grandpa would have a fit if he caught us kids splitting pieces smaller than six inches so we learned quickly to use our hand span. Still, around here, everything gets split once at least, and I cut down to two inch size branches. It dries better and has fewer bugs remaining active under the bark. And just because it’s so easy with the 20 ton hydraulic splitter. Ten inches or more is split into thirds or quartered.
But that isn’t the only reason. My stove is kind of small, takes a twenty inch piece of wood if it’s stuffed in and the door slammed. To compensate, the wood is cut to 16 inches, appropriately, the length of my chainsaw bar.

To keep mess out of the yard, the wood is bucked up in the woods and tossed into the pickup, hauled home and split as it’s taken from the truck. I find this to be the best/easiest method for a one-person operation. If a load is delivered by any local logger, he stacks it about ten feet from the cordwood pile, leaving enough room to get the splitter between the stack and pile. (Life is more simple when you have a plan. Besides, I’m lazy and usually the best way to do something is the easiest.) Any mess made from splitting is cleaned, thrown into the pickup and hauled back to the cutting area and dumped before the next load goes in. Follow the KISS principle.

Stacking is how I know how much wood I actually have and can monitor the usage. One cord is a pile four feet wide by four feet high by eight feet long. My stacks are head high- six feet- and twenty feet long. About one cord per row, in other words. In a mild winter, using the stove only during the hours at home, five cords will last a year. In severe winters with lots of wind, eight cords will do a season. (My furnace is in the house with two fire extinguishers near “just in case” and I use the propane furnace to maintain sixty degrees when not at home.)

Grandpa said to stack the wood bark down. His logic: if the wood is tarp-covered, the escaping moisture acts like a sauna or kiln and provides better ‘heat’ to dry the wood faster. One of my neighbors says to stack it bark up to shed the rain. Personally, I don’t think it matters a whole bunch. Getting the wood supply large enough for two years, always burning the oldest first of course, and the wood will have ample time to dry. And birch and maple really need the two drying seasons. So will poplar/aspen if it’s spring or summer cut. As to having two years’ supply on hand, three is a more comfortable margin, though it takes up a lot of yard space.

Of course, most of this thought is considering a total system breakdown where wood is going to be the only really consumer-gathered heat source. For the most part, this is what I expect in my ‘imaginings’, though something less harsh will probably be the case. Either way, wood is the heat source that warms three times for one season and the most practical heat in any situation.

“ You make a good stack, Jim,” I heard Grandpa say. “Now clean up that splitter and go have a cup of coffee.” I did as told- cleaned up the tools and went for coffee, my injured back happy to.

Garnered through years of work in the woods and as a carpenter who helped with log homes, my tools are the simple and effective tools of a logger. The half- ton four wheel drive pickup; two 25 foot lengths of ‘skidding’ chain; two chainsaws- newer Husqvarna and old Poulan with two chains each and toolbox with assorted tools; a Pickeroon [a.k.a. “Peavey” or “Cant Hook”] for moving and/or lifting a trunk to slip the skid chain around, sometimes for pulling pieces forward in the truck box; and the new 20-ton Honda powered splitter that replaced the six pound maul and home-built hydraulic splitter–the latter now owned by my neighbor. A pair of leather work gloves and chaps conclude the tool list. As for the chaps- everyone should wear them, or an equivalent pair of Kevlar jeans, but I find most often I go without. “With familiarity comes…” is fair warning. Steel toed logger boots are my standard footwear and they’ve paid for themselves many times just in bruises alone and a great investment. Except in winter when the steel toe attracts cold. A wonderful invention these days is the [Stihl brand] helmet with [integral] ear muffs and face shield. Definitely worth the investment for hearing alone. Even wearing glasses, the shield will keep large chips away from eyeballs, though I have had a flier or two get behind the shield and into my eye, it doesn’t happen often- usually when the wind is ‘right’.

Coffee cup in hand, I gaze at the wood pile and feel a touch of satisfaction in knowing I’ll be warm this winter, and stronger and healthier for doing my own gathering. All in all, a good day, Grandpa- thanks for the help. Now if I only had Grandma’s green thumb. – JSW

Letter Re: An Economic Observation on the Prices of Silver and Gasoline Versus Fiat Dollars

Jim,
I hope all is well with you and yours! I am pleased to note that I have made faithful followers of your blog of many of my friends. The more the merrier!

The blog has been an incredible source for enlightenment and inspiration.

I now advise everyone that I can prove that since 1964 and based upon the 1964 monetary system, the gallon price of gas at the pumps and the relative price of consumer goods have not increased in cost or value. Only the Federal Reserve note has lost buying power. In my humble and simple observation, cost or value are mere reflections of each other and are not necessarily defined by mediums of exchange, as in fiat vehicles we all call ‘notes’. Allow me to explain.

In 1964, the price of a gallon of gas was +/- .21 (twenty-one cents). An automobile nicely proportioned was $2,000 (two thousand dollars).

In 1964, silver coinage was the norm; however, the Federal Reserve and its cronies in “guv’memt” plotted silver’s demise as a free market trading medium and standard.

Today, fuel is $4.00 (four dollars) per gallon. A really nice car costs $40,000 (forty thousand dollars).

But the cost or value of fuel and consumer goods has not really increased. In 1964, a silver American dollar, the standardized value of exchange for the United States of America, equaled the cost of nearly five gallons of gasoline.

Today, a 1964 ‘junk silver’ Morgan (1921 or earlier) dollar will fetch $20.00 (twenty dollars) in Columbia, Tennessee. That ‘exchange rate’ for fiat currency reflects that still nearly five gallons of fuel can be purchased for the same value. Now, divide that cost of a $40,000 (forty thousand dollar) automobile by $20 (twenty dollars) and one readily observes that the cost or value of this consumer good/want/need has really not changed as it still costs 2000 (two thousand) 1964 silver ounces or ‘dollars’.

I do note, however, that one should not confuse the notion of intrinsic value with perceived value.

What has changed, though, is the great deception upon which the American citizen has been saddled, the wholesale fleecing of the wealth of this country! If everyone who reads your blog would recognize the stability of precious metals and adjust their way of defining cost or value they might find direction in their economic travels. More so, recognizing the grim realities of the Federal Reserve’s economic policies, one should be able to read the writing on the wall. Sadly, we exist today economically on the ‘oil standard’ which oddly enough is a reflection of the old ‘gold/silver standard’. Now all can stand on the street and point out that the King of the Federal Reserve is wearing no clothes!

When I point out to my friends the observations noted, they take great pause and likely start buying up ‘junk silver’. Precious metals really don’t ‘increase in value’, they just don’t lose purchasing power by government inspired inflation.

OBTW: Thanks for the heads up on ‘The Alpha Strategy‘. – Matt in Tennessee

Odds ‘n Sods:

Yishai alerted us to this video clip from tele-pundit Jim Cramer: Banking Doom Is Upon Us

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Eric suggested this column from The Delta Farm Press: Batten down the hatches, road ahead’s looking rocky

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Investors Hide as Banks Come Knocking Here are some quotes from the Wall Street Journal piece: “Investors are tired of trying to catch a falling knife,” says one investment banker who specializes in the financial-services industry. “Investors have good reason to be skittish.” “Even the smart money isn’t looking so smart.” (Thanks to Kevin A. for finding us that article.)

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Florida Guy spotted this New York Times article: Rethinking the Country Life as Energy Costs Rise. Florida Guy’s comment: “This is an obvious ‘move back to the city – the country is just too expensive’ hit piece. Smart, preparedness-minded and aware Americans will never fall for it, but it’s still worth a read.

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is at $350. This auction is for two cases (12 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans donated by Ready Made Resources, valued at $260, a course certificate for a four-day Bushcraft & Survival Course valued at $550, 25 pounds of green (un-roasted) Colombian Supremo coffee courtesy of www.cmebrew.com valued at $88.75, and a set of 1,600 U.S. Military Manuals, Government Manuals, and Civil Defense Manuals, Firearm Manuals on two CD-ROM disks, valued at $20. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.

Letter Re: My Real, Live-Fire Self-Sufficiency Test

Well, I am back on the Internet for a time at least. Mind you, from the look of the soap opera world, I didn’t miss much. Grin

A bit of background first for context. I am forecasting grim things for the fairly near future, particularly in financial terms. In one sense I am a type of survivalist, in that I want to prepare. Most survivalists tend to plan and prepare for a type of bunker at a fixed location to survive whatever doomsday they foresee coming. Such a plan has very distinct, real, and important advantages. However, the armed forces have a saying, “No battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy.” In my case I did not feel I had sufficient forecasting ability to make a viable plan, nor do I think that most others have either. So I decided to be as flexible as possible based on a couple of premises. One; That there were negative changes coming for humanity which would cause great social disturbance, and when the stuff is about to hit the fan, it is best not to be standing about with your face hanging out. (Want to be at least a tank of gas away from a major population center.) Secondly economic conditions will likely deteriorate dramatically, and with them a good deal of the scientific infrastructure that makes life so good today. If humanity is going back to the 1800s, I want to prepare using the advantages our infrastructure of today provides.

I picked a number of locales at which I felt I could, in extreme circumstances, be largely self sufficient. All have plusses and minuses. A large degree of isolation became a central point because of expected social disruption. (Desperate, starving people.) Part of isolation is to be in a place where no one would likely go, or at least not roving gangs. And that means having no roads or trails leading to you. Individuals who are lucky enough, or experienced enough to find you, may make good additions to the team.

Events of Aug 15, 2007 convinced me that it was time to stop planning and begin acting. I decided to move to the nearest locale that I felt could be a possible final location, and which would allow me to be far enough away from a major population center so as to avoid the worst of the initial social disruption, yet close enough to rescue the non believers I care about, and also be able to salvage a good deal of valuable stuff before people recognize its value. From there I could watch events unfold in relative safety, while still likely to be able to move on if that became desirable. As practice and to test my plans, during the last five weeks I began setting up the beginnings of a permanent residence and clearing enough land for a garden. I don’t expect to use this location, but in a worst case scenario, or proper circumstances, I can. This is a report of the surprises I encountered.

Probably the biggest mistake I made was one that I had experience with, and logically, knew what to expect because I grew up with no electricity or refrigeration. I had not expected how emotionally dependant I had become on refrigeration and the offshoots from that. Logically, I had supplied myself with lots of dried foods, etc. In a “grid down” situation it becomes much worse than even those who grew up without electricity, and refrigeration will expect.

The most stupid mistake was to think I could use a cell phone as emergency backup in case of accident in an isolated, unpopulated place. You’re on your own. No signal.

Some small tools, such as a leaf rake which I never saw the likes of in the 1930s, would be invaluable. I tried to remember exactly what we had on the farm then and replicate that. A fly swatter or it’s equivalent is easy to pass over in planning. Pioneers valued their cutting edges above almost all else. Axes and saws were gold. I had plenty, depending on how society fell apart, but I have added more for a worst case scenario. I also found one of those charities selling used clothes and stuff. They had various sharp “butcher” type knives on sale for .19 each. I snagged about 40, along with some stainless steel kitchenware, and other goodies. [I think some things like specialty steels (razor blades) and aluminum (Energy intensive) will become very scarce.] I did one really good thing, and that was to obtain a loggers tool I have not seen in years. I call it a Peavey but it is sometimes known as a cant hook. Used for wrestling with logs, particularly in water such as a river.

Only once before in my life (over 50 years ago) had I met insects that raised significant welts on me. (And I have spent years in the bush, mostly in isolation.) The insects at this location did, enough so that I broke my isolation rule and visited a doctor. Four pills of Benadryl brought me back from sheer agony and fear of major change in plans. (I thought part of the problem was allergies due to advancing age. Maybe, maybe not.) A Calamine lotion with an antihistamine content helped marginally. Anti-allergenics are a must have in your medical kit. (Along with an insect mesh jacket and hood I discovered. The brand name was CAMPAC and within the last couple of days, I am informed that this type of jacket/hood can be purchased in the order of $11, versus the $36 I paid when in a rush.) Stocking enough DEET to be effective would fill a warehouse, although it works well.

I had forgotten what percentage of the time one spends in rubber boots, and how easy it is to poke holes in them. Of course I had a pair, but now I have four good pairs, and would consider more if rubber boots did not deteriorate relatively rapidly, unused.

Glass for windows and light will be sorely missed. Thankfully, I am also skilled in glass making.

After some scouting, the location I picked was on the edge of a swampy area of about 100 acres. Swampy area produces good soil when drained. (And lots of bugs until then! It was probably crown land. The problem in converting the area to farmable land is twofold. One; the trench(s) to drain it, and two the huge stumps and roots it produces, which must be removed or they simply sprout again. (One can do controlled burns it three consecutive years in the spring and it will be largely cleared, except for roots. [Watch for ground fires, particularly the third year] I had neither three years nor the inclination to attract fire rangers to my spot.) I had decided that fuel for mechanical devices would likely be difficult to get in isolation or TEOTWAWKI, so had opted for chain blocks and other hand methods for heavy lifting such as stump removal. I can say these methods do work, but they are very slow and hard work. I had expected to supplant my own muscles with horsepower, but moving animals before having a fixed location is a no go. (Plus animals don’t like biting bugs, which are plentiful around swamps, any more than we do and they move away.) Regarding stumps and roots- you can expect as much wood below ground as above ground. Lots of digging.

I began thinking about an easier way. Eventually, despite my resources being finite, I began to consider some form of small engine driven unit such as a 4 wheel ATV, (Arctic Cat) construction loader (Bobcat) and finally one of the mini-Kubota diggers. (Available in tracked or wheeled models) A regular backhoe would be ideal, and efficient, but it uses about 2-1/2 litres of fuel per hour. (Approximately 4+ litres per US gallon, or 5+ per Imperial gallon) Cost new; $35,000-40,000) At a maximum I felt I could not store a two year supply, if for no other reason than degradation of fuel. (A Kubota is a miniature backhoe, but one can buy attachments such as a blade or bucket.) The Kubota would be rather like emptying a swimming pool with a teaspoon, Can be done, but oh so slowly and ineffectively. (Note: A major problem with any form of backhoe is the hydraulics and their repair. If the hydraulics break anywhere, they may be useless.) For trenching, or digging roots the Kubota would be worth its weight in gold. I do have a chainsaw and spares, with an expected useful life for any engine of less than two years. (Fuel supply)

Overall, horses would be far more efficient than the mini Kubota, and the other small engine machines were non starters. (the BobCat less so than the ATV.) On the other hand, horses require feed. Unless one has a relatively small fenced area, and can bring the food to them, horses travel great distances to forage. I have seen them go 10 miles hobbled, and 20+ miles if un-hobbled, in one night. You can spend all your time chasing horses. (The pioneers often used cattle to draw their wagons as they traveled. Cattle will not wander so much when foraging, and stay in a herd, whereas horses go off in all directions, but are better and faster for hauling.) Since I had no feed to bring to horses, I could not consider other than forage. Until I had enough land cleared for my food and horses food, (Or fences up, and shelter is a higher priority) I would have difficulty getting thru the winter. (Plus, particularly now, I didn’t want visible trails from the road by packing in repeated loads.) Ah, the problems one faces for having a variable plan.

I can hear the questions/arguments now. I do expect land prices (not value) to drop dramatically as the world financial system collapses. (And government and law as we know it to fall apart completely.) Besides, there are few locations with developed land that do not have roads. Where I tried my experiment, there were no roads within five miles, and then only one poor secondary road/fire trail. So far as I know, there were also no habitations within 20 miles or more or even ATV trails either. So, while I am rather closer to a major population center than I would like, I feel that it is unlikely that I will be found easily by an inexperienced group capable of taking me (and those who accompany me) down. In the time available I could not make a significant impact on the ecology, since to build a largish fire to burn downed trees would have the fire rangers investigating instantly. I do believe I have tested out my general plan, and found some problem areas that need addressing. And that was the purpose of the exercise.

Warning: Do not try this at home. It requires lots of experience, particularly in the bush, but in farming as well, and even then success is not guaranteed. And it is so easy to fatally injure yourself, particularly if you are living alone.

Letter Re: Huge Price Hikes by Dow Chemical are an Ominous Inflation Indicator

Jim,
In the news today, Dow Chemical is announcing a 25% price increase, following a 20% increase three weeks ago. Since they produce the feedstock chemicals for almost every industry on earth, this should be a great indicator of what’s coming. – ZBM

JWR Replies: Ay carumba! Dow produces a huge variety of chemicals and compounds that go into everything from fertilizers to plastics. This is an alarming indicator of consumer price increases in the near future. When paired with fuel price jumps, this becomes downright frightening for near-future food prices at the consumer level.

At this point, precious metals investing and a systematic Alpha Strategy (investing in practical tangibles, in anticipation of future price inflation) make even more sense. This based on wise 30-year old advice from author John Pugsley. Echoing Pugsley’s writings, I have been recommending “tangibles, tangibles, tangibles”, for many years now. This strategy is really starting to pay off. Ammo stored in your basement in now much better than money in the bank. (In fact, it is much better than almost anything denominated in US Dollars, which will soon positively melt in the heat of sustained double-digit inflation.) If you have been hesitating, stock up, soon. Every week that you delay will only cost you more!

OBTW, for any of you that feel smug holding Euros, watch out! This inflation will most likely hit globally, so your investments won’t be safe denominated in Euros, either.

Speaking of price inflation, reader ADS passed along the following along:

Score Board — percentage change for the year, so far, in various items:
Crude oil up 42.5%
Ethanol up 20.7%
Heating oil up 43.9%
Natural gas up 76.5%
Unleaded gas up 39.5%
Cattle up 1.0%
Corn up 58.8%
Soy beans up; 26.4%
Wheat down 2.2%
Coffee up 5.9%
Aluminum up 32.7%
Copper up 25.7
Platinum up 33.4%
Gold up 6.0%
Silver up 13.4%.
S&P 500 down 10.24%
Frankfurt DAX down 18.32%
London FTSE down 12.23%
Paris CAC down 19.64%
Hong Kong Hang Sang down 18.33%.
Tokyo Nikkei down 9.47%
Singapore Straits down 14.04%.
Seoul Composite down 9.57%
Sydney All Ordinary down 15.76%
Taipei Telex down 7.40%
Shanghai Shanghai B down 44.42%

You gotta love this one: Outside the Shanghai exchange people were picketing and protesting. It seems they wanted their money back.

One addenda to the data from ADS, from JWR: The reason that beef prices are remaining low is that ranchers are currently dumping cattle onto the market, because of high feed prices. Once that beef has worked its way to market, the remaining cattle (on the hoof) will jump up in price. So we can expect a huge spike in beef prices in 12 to 18 months. Buy your canned and freeze dried meats before those price increases!