Odds ‘n Sods:

More than 20 readers sent us links to various articles about Gerald Celente’s recently very gloomy predictions, including this one: Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012

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Eric flagged this one: Root cellars thrive as food prices rise. Oh, and BTW, count this as yet another greenie that doesn’t mind giving an exact location to reporters. How incredibly naive! (“Don’t forget to mention the nearest cross-street!”)

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From Cheryl, our Economic Editor, comes another big batch of news and commentary. It is noteworthy that the most incisive reporting on the US economy now comes from UK newspapers. The US mainstream media is treating Americans like mushrooms (to wit: keeping us in the dark and feeding us manure). Wall Street Finishes Lower on Recession Worries, CitiGroup Layoffs — Aid Prospects Darken for Desperate US Carmakers — Collapse of the Real Economy — Paulson Blunders as Debt Market Remains Frozen — The G20’s Secret Debt Solution — Japan Slides Into Recession as Exports Dive — 50,000 UK Realtors Gone in Nine Months — Crisis is Beyond the Reach of Traditional Solutions — Fears Drive Gun Buyers to Stock Up — S&P: 85 Companies Default on Debt in 2008 — CitiGroup’s Survival in Doubt — Automakers Beg for Aid as Bailout Bill Stalls — EU, Asia Stocks Decline, Led By Banks — October Producer Prices Fall Record 2.8% — Volcker Issues Dire Warning on Slump — The Global Dow — Roubini’s Latest List of “Why Things Are Hopeless” Contains Record 20 Items — Experts Warn of Security Risks in Economic Downturn

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David V. sent us this article that shows that even the mainstream media is catching on to the COMEX gold spot price farce: Why Gold Is Down, But You Can’t Get Your Hands on Any. There is a growing realization that the “gold as a commodity” market is quite different than the “gold as a currency” market. Although industrial demand will continue to wane in the recession, even the talking heads at CNBC recognize that the price of gold is primed to zoom upward, as currencies crumble. Gold is the ultimate safe harbor when the economic seas get stormy.

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David V. also sent us this: Depression 2009: What would it look like?

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $710. The auction is for a large mixed lot that includes:

A.) 15 brand new 30 round M16/M4/AR-15 magazines from JWR‘s personal collection. These include four scarce and desirable brand new HK steel “Maritime Finish” magazines, and 11 new USGI alloy magazines made by Center Industries. (Note that most of these were made during the 1994-2004 Federal ban, most of them have restriction markings, but those became null and void after the ban sunsetted.) Even if you don’t own an AR-15, these magazines are great to keep on hand for barter. (Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.) In today’s frenzied market, these magazines have a retail value of at least $460..

B.) A NukAlert radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value).

C.) An assortment of loose leaf teas, a box of Bellagio hot chocolate (25 individual packs), and your choice of $50 worth of ground or whole bean roasted coffee. (A combined retail value of more than $150), all courtesy of CMeBrew.com.

D.) A case of 24 cans of canned storage butter, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $110 retail value).

E.) A carton of 10 rolls of Hydrion fuel test strips, (with a retail value of $85), donated by UR-2B-Prepared.com.

F.) “Alone in the Wilderness” book and 2 DVD Value Set on the life of Richard Proenneke (a retail value of $51.95) courtesy of Camping Survival.com

G.) An EVAC Easy Roll Stretcher kit, (a retail value of $49.95), donated by FrostCPR.com.

This auction ends on December 15th. Please e-mail us your bid for the entire mixed lot.

Letter Re: UCLA’s Eye-Opening Colloquium on the Worldwide Financial and Economic Crisis

Hi,
Yesterday [Friday. November 14, 2008] I attended the Marschak Colloquium on Mathematics in the Behavioral Sciences at UCLA {University of California, Los Angeles] . This thing is attended by lots of UCLA and USC [University of Southern California] economics professors, including many retired faculty members and other local luminaries. (Two seats to my right was author Alvin Toffler of “Future Shock” fame.) The main speakers presented for an hour, and then the whole group asked questions and discussed the topic. Here is the brief abstract that announced the talk: “The current worldwide financial and economic crisis is the greatest economic challenge we have faced since the Great Depression. The two speakers will treat the crisis in the light of historical experience, will identify some of its causes, and will consider possible policy initiatives at the national and international level to treat it.”

The topic was “The Current Worldwide Financial and Economic Crisis.” I expected it to be an interesting, balanced, reasoned and academic view of the current bumps in the road, with some modest suggestions for improving matters. Wow! It was all very reasoned, and there was even a little bit of mathematical modeling, but these people are very very concerned! The immense set of interlocking derivative bets made by the big banks is now acknowledged as a complete house of cards, and one that is currently collapsing! (The second speaker made suggestions about policy moves that could be taken “if officials somehow miraculously stop the process in mid-collapse.”)

The whole two hours was fascinating, but here are a few of the ideas and comments that I came away with:
• This is the first global crisis of the globalized world. Likely every country will be affected and all at about the same time. (Very different from [the economic crisis of] 1929-1937.)
• The causes were many: lax regulation, lax credit reviews by rating agencies, securitization of mortgages, insane(!) investment leverage, pressure for continuously increasing financial profits, herd behavior, deregulation, ….
• Many financial institutions would be immediately bankrupt if the were forced to value assets at current market prices. (Instead, everyone has agreed to claim that “certain markets are frozen.” The regulators wink.)
• Deleveraging is essential to the survival of these institutions. But most deleveraging actions actually lower all institutions’ capital bases. So it’s a self-reinforcing positive feedback cycle. Serious deflation is a genuinely possible outcome. For the first time in our lives, money could become more valuable over time, rather than less.
• On the other hand, most Latin American currency crises began as fiscal crises. Government frantically created money to prevent deflation, and eventually they got hyperinflation. This, too, could happen here.
• A former vice president of Citicorp was in the audience. He said that the explosion in derivative instruments ran far ahead of infrastructure (markets for trading them, etc.) and far ahead of legal frameworks. He said we haven’t even seen the beginning of the counterparty problem.
• An economist from USC in the audience said that we will soon have huge, massive unemployment in the U.S.
• What will happen next (even what could happen next) is unknown. A Swedish economist in attendance said: “Dispense with the illusion that you understand what is happening.”

It was a very interesting couple of hours. – M.D.I. (by way of SurvivalBlog readers Bill and Charley.)

Letter Re: Where to Find the Funds for Your Preparations

Dear Jim,
So many people are struggling to find ways to make ends meet, much less have any extra money to make purchases for their preparedness plan.
There are a lot of things people can do within their own means.

1. Make a budget. Income minus expenses. Is there anything left over? You are ahead of the game. If not, now is the time to:
2. Trim the budget. Distinguish needs versus wants. Eliminate anything that is not needed.
3. If after trimming the budget, you still cannot find extra money, get a second job, have a yard sale, etc. www.daveramsey.com is a great site for
learning how to eliminate debt.

Some things that have worked for us:
We turned up the thermostat in the summer and used a fan to circulate the air, started hanging clothes out instead of using the dryer, unplugged all electrical cords that were not in use, [each of us] used the same drinking glass instead of getting another, and shortened our allowed shower time. (With three teenagers in the house, we struck gold with that one.) We turned all computers off at night. Our power bill was reduced just over $100 per month by making these changes.

We eliminated the cable television. That saved $70.

We started clipping coupons again. I have saved nearly $200 a month on our grocery bill. CouponMom.com is an awesome site.

I also milk our goats. I will not pay $4.00 a gallon per day at the store.

Instead of spending a lot on pre-packed snacks for the kids, I am baking a lot more.

We cook outside a lot. On Sunday, we grill and smoke chicken, sausage, hamburgers, hot dogs and goat meat. We then use this meat in whatever recipe we want to use for the week. Some of it is then frozen for the latter part of the week.

I make up a few batches of goat cheese to go with my husband’s homemade pita bread.

We have a garden in the summer and we can what isn’t eaten fresh . Even if you live in the city, you can still have a tomato plant or a bell pepper plant etc. You can purchase a grow light at Wal-Mart.

We have consolidated our trips into town, instead of going whenever we want to. This has saved at least $40 a month.
There are so many ways to stop wasting money.

Okay, some women really will think TEOTWAWKI with this one: Buy your clothes second hand. I am not ashamed to accept hand me downs from friends. My children have all worn clothes given to them from other family members. I also shop at Goodwill [thrift stores] or go to Yard Sales.

Start a business. I am a stay at home Mom with five children. We have nearly four acres that we live on and have access to 20 acres next door and that we run our 40 head of Boer goats on. We have chickens and rabbits. I also breed and train German Shepherds and board dogs. With my husband’s income and the extra attention to detail, we do pretty well. The changes that we have made has allowed us to purchase the needed extras.

Thanks for the wealth of knowledge that you share with us every day! – RH in Alabama

Two Letters Re: Procuring Reliable Workhorse Bikes — Take Advantage of the Single Speed Fad

James
I am a daily multi-modal commuter taking an armored bus into Jerusalem and then cycling from the bus station to my kollel. Before my move to Israel, I only drove my 4×4 truck several times a month and did about 50-to-70 miles a week by pedal power. I did once try using Slime in my tubes but this makes for a difficult ride, wasting immense amounts of effort due to the natural imbalance of slimed tires. I also found that it is also impossible to patch slimed tires. My advice is to get a good tire like the Kevlar Schwalbe Marathon tire, although some may not want the reflective paint on this tire for OPSEC, I have also had good use from the Specialized brand CrossRoads mountain/road tire. Unless the cycle rider is planning to go 100% soft road it is better to occasionally walk the bike and gain the efficiency of a smooth roll center strip.

Since most of us are not equestrian experts and since animals can be such a danger especially if regular medical care is unavailable, a bicycle should be part of nearly every persons preparation purchases right after a basic defensive firearm, camping gear, and several months of backup food and a way to cook it. I also suggest every reader find a mechanic that they can trust at a local bicycle shop who can help evaluate any potential purchases so you don’t buy used or new junk which will sit in the garage attracting rust and often teach you to fix the problems, he will also help you collect the tools and parts needed to keep it running even if he is not there. Your bicycle is the most efficient form of powered transport known to man so you will easily feel any inefficiencies when pedaling up a big hill, this is probably your future daily means of transport, don’t sell yourself short. See also Sheldon Brown for how to work on a bicycle and Crazy Guy on a Bike for cycle camping and long tours. – David in Israel (SurvivalBlog’s Correspondent in Israel)

Mr. Rawles –
I noticed your recommendation to use extra-thick inner tubes and Slime for tires on survival bicycles. Excellent advice, but may I suggest an alternative I have used on my bicycles — air free tires. There are alternative suppliers as well but these have worked well for me. The tires use solid, dense polyurethane and are offered with varying densities/elasticities to match various tire PSI ratings. One caveat is that they are a bear to get on the rim, and you’ll likely have to re-true the rim once on.

Since I live in a very cactus-infested part of Arizona, these have been a blessing. I’ve even picked up nails without any problems (other than having to stop and pull them out with a Leatherman tool .)

I love the blog. I’ve been a reader of yours for years, in the far distant past from the misc.survivalism [Usenet] newsgroup [in the late 1980s and early 1990s].
Regards, – “Harmless Fuzzy Bunny”

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “Arclight” mentioned that here is a DEA newsletter, formerly restricted to Law Enforcement, called “The Microgram.” Arclight’s comment: While some of it dry and technical, there are some fascinating stories of how drug operations are hidden, items are smuggled through customs, etc. The Microgram and the newsletters also available on the site give a fascinating look into who is running this trade and how. Good intel reading for the good guys.”

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I recently updated my M14 / M1A Magazine FAQ, to include a link to the set of excellent Counterfeit USGI M14 Magazine Detecting Flowcharts that are posted over at Rifle-Company.com. There now so many fake “GI” M14 magazines on the US market that I recommend printing out a set of these charts to carry with you when attending gun shows.

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Craig R. found a free guide to trapping provided in PDF by Michigan Department of Natural Resources.

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Reader Harry L. pointed us to some first-hand some observations on the frenzied battle rifle, magazine, and ammo market in the US, by the owner of Classic Arms, in North Carolina.

Note from JWR:

Two additional items have been generously added to the already large mixed lot in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction that started yesterday:

A NukAlert radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). and,

A case of 24 cans of canned storage butter, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $110 retail value).

The high bid is now at $350. The auction ends on December 15th . Please e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Seeking Advice on Rainwater Catchment and Filtration

Mr. Rawles:
When constructing a rain-catch such as this one, which the good folks at Lowe’s [–a major hardware store chain in the US–] suggest for economically watering your garden, is there any instance where it would be okay to use this as a backup for drinking water?

Obviously, one would be foolish to drink directly from containers that are not food-grade or if the water has been sitting for too long a time. But, my question is does that change if you plan on running the water through a purifying process such as through a Berky or this economically priced alternative.

It looks like these filters might not last as long as the Berky filters, but are quite a bit cheaper and have a higher flow rate (this is what I was told – YMMV). A representative of the manufacturer claims to train the “second largest disaster relief organization in the world” who “use this filter exclusively” and that it is used by missionaries in 38 countries around the globe. I was also told that it was nominated for a World Health Humanitarian Award for 2008. Also, it supposedly outperformed the Berky in a trial run by Johns Hopkins University, but I have been unable to verify that claim. I can verify that Johns Hopkins University did give it a passing grade; as did the National Sanitation Foundation (NSF) under Standards 42 and 53, AEL Laboratories, Analytical Food Laboratories, British 5750 Quality Standard, and England’s Water Research Council standard.

So, my two questions are:

1.) Is it safe to drink rainwater caught in a non food-grade vessel, provided you filter it through a sub-micron apparatus first?

2.) What are your thoughts on the aforementioned filter? Thanks, – J.S.C.

JWR Replies: In answer to your questions: Rainwater catchment for domestic water is very popular in Hawaii. There, most families do little more than use a sediment filter and bulk chlorination. You should of course never re-use something like a fuel tank or a toxic chemical tank for a water barrel. As I explained previously in SurvivalBlog, the issue with “non-food grade” HDPE plastic buckets and barrels is that some of them are manufactured using toxic injection molding release compounds. Whether or not a ceramic water filter would remove any such trace chemicals goes beyond my expertise. Perhaps a chemist or a water quality specialist amongst the SurvivalBlog readership could enlighten us.

We have a Big Berky here at the ranch, and love it. The two-bucket ceramic filter that you mentioned is remarkably similar to the improvised Berky clone that I detailed in a SurvivalBlog post back in May. Both their design and mine have similar cost, similar do-it-yourself labor requirements, and they will process a comparable volume of water. This isn’t like comparing “apples to oranges”. It is more like comparing Bartlett Pears to D’Anjou Pears.

Letter Re: Seeking Advice on a Self Defense Handgun Purchase

Hi Jim,

I do not have a handgun presently but want to get one. If you were only going to buy one handgun for self defense what would it be?
God Bless, – Greg O.

JWR Replies: Presently, I’d recommend getting either a Glock M21-SF .45 ACP or a Springfield Armory XD .45 ACP. Go for a full size model unless you plan to carry your pistol concealed extensively. If that is the case then get a Glock Model 30 (commonly called a “Mini Glock”) or an XD Compact .45. Given the currently frantic market for full capacity magazines in the US, be sure to buy at least six spare magazines immediately. (In fact, preferably before you buy the gun itself, just to be sure. Yes, the supplies of magazines are drying up that quickly!)

Some important notes on magazine compatibility: With a few exceptions, magazines are generally brand and model specific. With most brands of handguns, full size magazines will fit in the compact models as spares, but not vice versa. To provide a few extra rounds, I recommend that all of the spares that you carry should be full size magazines.

If you get a “-SF” (Short Frame) variant Glock, they can only accept the more recent production “SF” Glock magazines with the retention notch cut in the front. Older (“pre-SF”) Glocks can accept either early or late generation magazines.

BTW, I highly recommend Front Sight’s Gun & Gear & Training offer–which includes an essentially free XD pistol, holster, belt, a spare magazine, and a magazine pouch.

Letter Re: Peakniks Need Better OPSEC

James,

Regarding those who gave their street addresses in the Peak Oil article that was recently mentioned: Indeed, it boggles the mind when people appear to have absolutely no concept of OPSEC. It betrays a mind that apparently has little or knowledge of the human animal, which the substitute for which must necessarily be a fantasy of some sort.

If giving your address isn’t enough, how about these folks providing a full set of downloadable tactical maps for your retreat?

Understandably they’re running an operation that provides for open visitation, for which the cartoon of the hippie village layout would suffice, but the topographical map?! Let’s make it real easy for some anti-social element who also happens to be “TEOTWAWKI-aware” to book mark your little world for a later date. (Shakes head in disgust.) – Mosby

Letter Re: Procuring Reliable Workhorse Bikes — Take Advantage of the Single Speed Fad

Jim,
Due to a current fad in single-speed bicycles, mountain bikes are re-selling very inexpensively. Used, [15-speed] mountain bikes for around $200 for what had been $1,200 bicycles, on average. With smooth tires, puncture sealing inner-tubes, lights, fenders, and a rack or basket, this can haul groceries or get you to work in the event of a temporary fuel shortage such as we just experienced in the Southeast a month ago. No gas in Nashville, indeed! Not a perfect solution, but better than losing your job for lack of trying. Get into cycling, once a week, so you can learn how to maintain a bike, develop the skill and muscles to do so, and figure out the good accessories versus the trash. Like with camping, there’s a lot of useless dross out there, and a fair bit of gold once you figure out what works. $200 + $200 in accessories = commuter bicycle. Or buy one special-made if you prefer. Still, a commuter bike in the garage, ridden weekly, is better than getting on a waiting list when the fuel runs out. Just because its $54 per barrel now doesn’t mean it won’t zoom back to $145 per barrel once the new President says or does something stupid in the Middle East.

Some background on the one speed fad: I think the single-speed bikes became popular in Portland first, though it might have started in San Francisco with the Bike Messengers 10 years ago, its only just caught on in Pleasanton, California, Davis, California, and the rest of the bike-riding elite-areas. I love my mountain bike, but its so fast on slick tires. Cheap mountain bikes with slick tires are a modification that was inspired by converting dirt bike motorcycles to street racers, called “motards”, using slick tires. This works well and has lots of torque. Recommended for users with cruddy roads since they have 6-8 inches of wheel travel for potholes and require less gear shifting than a Ninja 250R or Suzuki TU250. Best, – Inyokern

JWR Replies: That is great advice. OBTW, I recommend retrofitting any “workhorse” type bicycles with extra-thick inner tubes, and then “Sliming” them. This provides tires that are nigh-on impervious to typical puncture flat tires. Used, low-mileage mountain bikes can often be found on Craig’s List for a just a fraction of what they sell for in bike shops.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Robert R. recommended this piece over at The Simple Dollar blog: Investing in Skills (or Fear of an Apocalyptic Economy)

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For November and December only, FreezeDryGuy is offering a special sale price for a one year’s supply of 30-year shelf life Mountain House freeze dried fruit plus a free water filter. For just a hair over $500, you’ll get one case (six #10 cans) of Freeze Dried Strawberries (132 cup servings), two cases Freeze Dried Banana Slices (240 cup servings), and a bonus Aquamira E&E Military Water Filter. (Normally $20.) Contact FreezeDryGuy for ordering details.

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KAF mentioned a recent Daily KOS article, that echoes our warnings nearly a month ago in SurvivalBlog about the plummeting Baltic Dry Index: Two signs that something is seriously wrong

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John in Colorado sent a link to a useful tool for those considering relocating. It displays the location of reported bad neighbors, sex offenders, and so forth.

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The latest gleanings from The Economatrix: US Store Closings, The Latest Casualties — US Carmaker Crash Risks Three Million Jobs — Roubini: The Worst is Not Behind Us — G20 Put Off Major Decisions Until Next Year — 110 Banks Asked for $170 Billion From Bailout — Too Late Now! — Freddie Mac Says its Worth Less than Zero — CitiGroup to Cut 10% of Workforce