Odds ‘n Sods:

CIA and Pentagon Wonder: Could Mexico Implode? (A hat tip to Darin B. for the link.)

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MP sent this: Recipes from The Great Depression.

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Cheryl sent this: EMP Attack: Overlooked Catastrophe

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Mrs. G. in Montana found a site that he thought would be of interest to the ladies: The Homemaker’s Mentor. She notes: “I was looking for directions for dehydrating eggs and found a forum for a group of women who are striving for prepare for their families. Oh and speaking of the distaff viewpoint, also check out Betsy’s writings over at Survival Lady.

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $710. This auction is for a large mixed lot, which includes::

1.) Another “be ready to barter” box of 38 full-capacity gun magazines, from my personal collection in JASBORR. This box includes: 4 – Used original East German 30 rd. steel AK-47 magazines in a “raindrop” camouflage pattern belt pouch, 12 – Excellent-to-new condition original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Well-used but serviceable condition original Austrian FN-FAL steel 20 round magazines with cartridge counter holes, 10 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (all Colt made!) alloy 20 round magazines, and 6 – Excellent to new condition original (Norwegian contract) Glock Model 17 9mm 17 round pistol magazines (early type, with “U” notch). All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $700, in today’s market. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

3.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

4.) Five cases (200 pairs) of AMMEX Heatworks chemical hand warmers (a $182.50 value), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com

5.) A Brunton Solarport 4 (4.4 Watt) compact photovoltaic power panel and 6/12 VDC power adaptor set, including as USB power port. This is a $120 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

6.) A Pelican Model 1400 waterproof case in olive drab, ideal for pistols, Starlight scopes, or communications gear. This is a $95 retail value, courtesy of Scorpion Survival.

7.) A Non-Hybrid Garden Security Collection, Garden Bean Collection, and your choice of a pint of fertile grains (Hull-less Oats, Spelt, or Winter Rye), a $50 + retail value, courtesy of Seed For Security.

Thus, this auction has a combined value in excess of $1,600. This auction ends on March 15th. Please e-mail us your bid. Your bid will be for the entire mixed lot.

Depression Proof Jobs for a 20 Year Depression – Part 2: Developing a Home-Based Business

Yesterday, in Part1, I discussed the “safe” and counter-cyclical occupations for the unfolding economic depression. Today, I’d like to talk about one specific approach: self-employment with a home-based business.

I posted most the following back in late 2005, but there are some important points that are worth repeating:

The majority of SurvivalBlog readers that I talk with tell me that they live in cities or suburbs, but they would like to live full time at a retreat in a rural area. Their complaint is almost always the same: “…but I’m not self-employed. I can’t afford to live in the country because I can’t find work there, and the nature of my work doesn’t allow telecommuting.” They feel stuck.

Over the years I’ve seen lots of people “pull the plug” and move to the boonies with the hope that they’ll find local work once they get there. That usually doesn’t work. Folks soon find that the most rural jobs typically pay little more than minimum wage and they are often informally reserved for folks that were born and raised in the area. (Newcomers from the big city certainly don’t have hiring priority!)

My suggestion is to start a second income stream, with a home-based business. Once you have that business started, then start another one. There are numerous advantages to this approach, namely:

You can get out of debt

You can generally build the businesses up gradually, so that you don’t need to quit your current occupation immediately

By working at home you will have the time to home school your children and they will learn about how to operate a business.

You can live at your retreat full time. This will contribute to your self-sufficiency, since you will be there to tend to your garden, fruit/nut trees, and livestock.

If one of your home-based businesses fails, then you can fall back on the other.

Ideally, for someone that is preparedness-minded, a home-based business should be something that is virtually recession proof, or possibly even depression proof. Ask yourself: What are you good at? What knowledge or skills do you have that you can utilize. Next, consider which businesses will flourish during bad times. Some good examples might include:

Mail order/Internet sales/eBay Auctioning of preparedness-related products.

Locksmithing

Gunsmithing

Medical Transcription

Accounting

Repair/refurbishment businesses

Freelance writing

Blogging (with paid advertising) If you have knowledge about a niche industry and there is currently no authoritative blog on the subject, then start your own!

Mail order/Internet sales of entertainment items. (When times get bad, people still set aside a sizable percentage of their income for “escape” from their troubles. For example, video rental shops have done remarkably well during recessions.)

Burglar Alarm Installation

Other home-based businesses that seem to do well only in good economic times include:

Recruiting/Temporary Placement

Fine arts, crafts, and jewelry. Creating and marketing your own designs–not “assembly” for some scammer. (See below.)

Mail order/Internet sales/eBay Auctions of luxury items, collectibles, or other “discretionary spending” items

Personalized stationary and greeting cards (Freelance artwork)

Calligraphy

Web Design

 

Beware the scammers! The fine folks at www.scambusters.org have compiled a “Top 10” list of common work-at-home and home based business scams to beware of:

10. Craft Assembly
This scam encourages you to assemble toys, dolls, or other craft projects at home with the promise of high per-piece rates. All you have to do is pay a fee up-front for the starter kit… which includes instructions and parts. Sounds good? Well, once you finish assembling your first batch of crafts, you’ll be told by the company that they “don’t meet our specifications.”
In fact, even if you were a robot and did it perfectly, it would be impossible for you to meet their specifications. The scammer company is making money selling the starter kits — not selling the assembled product. So, you’re left with a set of assembled crafts… and no one to sell them to.

9. Medical Billing
In this scam, you pay $300-$900 for everything (supposedly) you need to start your own medical billing service at home. You’re promised state-of-the-art medical billing software, as well as a list of potential clients in your area.
What you’re not told is that most medical clinics process their own bills, or outsource the processing to firms, not individuals. Your software may not meet their specifications, and often the lists of “potential clients” are outdated or just plain wrong.
As usual, trying to get a refund from the medical billing company is like trying to get blood from a stone.

8. Email Processing
This is a twist on the classic “envelope stuffing scam” (see #1 below). For a low price ($50?) you can become a “highly-paid” email processor working “from the comfort of your own home.”
Now… what do you suppose an email processor does? If you have visions of forwarding or editing emails, forget it. What you get for your money are instructions on spamming the same ad you responded to in newsgroups and Web forums!
Think about it — they offer to pay you $25 per e-mail processed — would any legitimate company pay that?

7. “A List of Companies Looking for Homeworkers!”
In this one, you pay a small fee for a list of companies looking for homeworkers just like you.
The only problem is that the list is usually a generic list of companies, companies that don’t take homeworkers, or companies that may have accepted homeworkers long, long ago. Don’t expect to get your money back with this one.

6. “Just Call This 1-900 Number For More Information…”
No need to spend too much time (or money) on this one. 1-900 numbers cost money to call, and that’s how the scammers make their profit. Save your money — don’t call a 1-900 number for more information about a supposed work-at-home job.

5. Typing At Home
If you use the Internet a lot, then odds are that you’re probably a good typist. How better to capitalize on it than making money by typing at home? Here’s how it works: After sending the fee to the scammer for “more information,” you receive a disk and printed information that tells you to place home typist ads and sell copies of the disk to the suckers who reply to you. Like #8, this scam tries to turn you into a scammer!

4. “Turn Your Computer Into a Money-Making Machine!”
Well, this one’s at least half-true. To be completely true, it should read: “Turn your computer into a money-making machine… for spammers!”
This is much the same spam as #5, above. Once you pay your money, you’ll be sent instructions on how to place ads and pull in suckers to “turn their computers into money-making machines.”

3. Multi-Level Marketing (MLM)
If you’ve heard of network marketing (like Amway), then you know that there are legitimate MLM businesses based on agents selling products or services. One big problem with MLMs, though, is when the pyramid and the ladder-climbing become more important than selling the actual product or service. If the MLM business opportunity is all about finding new recruits rather than selling products or services, beware: The Federal Trade Commission may consider it to be a pyramid scheme… and not only can you lose all your money, but you can be charged with fraud, too!
We saw an interesting MLM scam recently: one MLM company advertised the product they were selling as FREE. The fine print, however, states that it is “free in the sense that you could be earning commissions and bonuses in excess of the cost of your monthly purchase of” the product. Does that sound like free to you?

2. Chain Letters/Emails (“Make Money Fast”)
If you’ve been on the Internet for any length of time, you’ve probably received or at least seen these chain emails. They promise that all you have to do is send the email along plus some money by mail to the top names on the list, then add your name to the bottom… and one day you’ll be a millionaire. Actually, the only thing you might be one day is prosecuted for fraud. This is a classic pyramid scheme, and most times the names in the chain emails are manipulated to make sure only the people at the top of the list (the true scammers) make any money. This scam should be called “Lose Money Fast” — and it’s illegal.

1. Envelope Stuffing
This is the classic work-at-home scam. It’s been around since the U.S. Depression of the 1920s and 1930s, and it’s moved onto the Internet like a cockroach you just can’t eliminate. There are several variations, but here’s a sample: Much like #5 and #4 above, you are promised to be paid $1-2 for every envelope you stuff. All you have to do is send money and you’re guaranteed “up to 1,000 envelopes a week that you can stuff… with postage and address already affixed!” When you send your money, you get a short manual with flyer templates you’re supposed to put up around town, advertising yet another harebrained work-from-home scheme. And the pre-addressed, pre-paid envelopes? Well, when people see those flyers, all they have to do is send you $2.00 in a pre-addressed, pre-paid envelope. Then you stuff that envelope with another flyer and send it to them. Ingenious perhaps… but certainly illegal and unethical.

From all that I’ve heard, most franchises and multi-level marketing schemes are not profitable unless you pick a great product or service, and you already have a strong background in sales. Beware of any franchise where you wouldn’t have a protected territory. My general advice is this: You will probably be better off starting your own business, making, retailing, or consulting about something where you can leverage your existing knowledge and/or experience.

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In closing, I’d like to reemphasize that home security and locksmithing are likely to provide steady and profitable employment for the next few years, since hard economic times are likely to trigger a substantial crime wave. After all, someone has to keep watch on the tens of thousands of foreclosed, vacant houses. (If not watched, then crack cocaine addicts, Chicago syndicate politicians, or other undesirables might move in!)

Letter Re: Real World Observations on Fighting Crime and Criminals

Hello Sir!
While visiting your site this morning, I read a letter by someone talking about residential break-ins. While I don’t wish to contradict anything stated in the letter, there are a few points that should be made.

15 years ago, I made the decision to train as a Locksmith. I have my own locksmith business is in it’s 10th year and going strong. I’ve worked in banks, with police and even the DEA. I’ve been at the scene of scores of break-ins, assessing the damage as well as repairing and fortifying the sites.

This brings me to the point; Glass breakage is a very high pitched and distinctive sound. The moment a neighbor hears glass breaking outside their home, the police are called in to check it out. This is not what a would-be thief wants. The second reason that glass is not generally broken is that many of the windows now are double paned. These are not as easy to break as one might think. If broken, which is not always successful, the sound generated by the force needed will alert anyone in the surrounding area. Falling glass from the window can continue to make noise which allows any person investigating the noise to home in on it’s origin. Lastly, the intruder can be severely cut climbing over a shard of glass. None of the above are desirable to a thief. (Though for more desperate times, more desperate measures would be needed.)

This as opposed to the dead thump of a door being kicked in, and closed behind the intruder. Most folks pay no attention to such noises (which is why, when asked by the police if they heard “shots”, most people will deny it, as when muffled either by intention or the enclosed dwelling itself, a shot sounds more like a bump or thump. Or they will say that they heard “something” but not be able to describe what it was). Even the most curious neighbor will see nothing out of ordinary upon investigation of a thump outside their home.

More important is the method to increasing the security of the doors of the home. Though most people worry about their locks being picked…..and it can happen (therefore I recommend Medeco High Security locks), the vast majority of criminals prefer not to remain out in the open for any measurable time. Since picking can vary immensely from lock to lock (including the laughable Internet scare “lock-bumping” method – sorry folks, it only works like that consistently in the movies), the preferred method unlawful entry is to cross into forced entry and put a boot to the section of the door that is weakest. That would be a spot as close to the knob/deadbolt as they can get.

As the saying goes, a chain is only as strong as the weakest link. Well, in this particular chain, that would be the stud into which the bolt bore and latch bore are made. The reason is, that residential exterior doors open in; toward the inside of the house. A well placed boot only has to split the 3/4″ – 1″ of wood on the far side of the hole bored into the stud into which the deadbolt protrudes in the thrown position.

Though it was mentioned in the letter posted on your site that longer screws are needed for the latch plate, they will provide no measurable added security with regard to a person kicking in the door. Nor will driving a steel conduit into the hole aid in the attempt to “beef it up”, as I’ve seen posted on another blog. Neither of these is going to solve the original problem of the lack of wood behind the holes bored in the jamb to accommodate the latch and bolt when engaged.

An expedient way to shore up this weak spot is to remove the molding on the interior side of the jamb and install a strip of metal 24″ long (approximately), 1.5″ wide and 1/16″ thick. Drill 4-6 holes along the strip alternating from side to side and use 4″ lag bolts (flat head) to secure it in place with the center point directly behind the center point between the latch and the deadbolt, reinforcing the formerly vulnerable stud. The molding is then replaced and nobody but the homeowner knows it’s there. (This method, of course, will do nothing to stop a door “spreader” which police agencies use for entry when investigating…..but that’s another story.)

The next weak point will be the door itself, from the holes for the hardware to the closest edge. This is where a wooden door will split under force. As the door is forced, the bolt and latch are held in place in the jamb. This causes a twisting motion as pressure is put on the shear point (where the door meets the jamb) and like the formerly weak jamb, the door splits off 6″ – 12″ on either side of the nearest hole.

Though brass “wrap around reinforcers” are sold, they offer marginal, at best, additional security. This is a place where thicker is better…..and more surface area is a plus. My recommendation is, of course, a steel door. Not only do they help seal out external temperatures (less prone to warping), they offer more security against forced entry. The next best is steel plates (decorative or at least paint-able) 6″ wide, 1/8″ thick and 24″ long, with 8 screws spaced equidistantly along their edges (both sides) 1/2″ in from the edge. Your standard back-set for a knob or deadbolt is 2 3/8 inches residential, but 2 3/4 (the commercial standard) is gaining popularity. Either way, this puts the knob and deadbolt in the center of the plates. For those few who have the old style 5″ back-set, they’re just going to have to figure out an esthetically pleasing solution.

Next is the hardware. Locks need to be as solid as you can afford. You generally get what you pay for. Go for the heaviest duty. We’re not talking about a purchase from the local hardware giant either. Just because the package says “heavy duty” or “high security” doesn’t mean a thing. Go to a locksmith or locksmith supply company. If you can find excellent quality on the Internet, that’s great. Just don’t worry too much about cost as the difference of price over the life of the lock is minimal.

This is especially important with regard to hinges. The top hinge holds the brunt of the weight. When the door is closed, you can check the sag of the door by how wide the gap is on the hinged side between the door and the jamb. The wider the gap, the more worn your hinge. Eventually, this will cause difficulty in latching/bolting the door, not to mention the more give a hinge has, the more strain on the screws under pressure. On an open door, rub marks near the top of the edge indicate worn hinges. A badly worn set of hinges will cause the door to “bump” the door jamb before closing. A quick fix when there is no alternative is to swap the top and bottom hinges.

Ultimately, extreme heavy duty hinges should be installed. This is a place where longer screws make a difference (which is probably where folks get the idea for longer screws on the latch plate). Since there are no holes bored into the hinged side of the jamb, and there are 3 sets of 4 screws, spread over the length of the jamb, holding the hinge to the jamb, any shear pressure is also spread throughout the entire stud, minimizing the force at any particular point. The force necessary to overcome this is substantial. Other means of entry are definitely preferable; which is the point in the average residential setting, as they are notoriously difficult to fortify with the standard construction, windows

Basic knowledge to be sure, but it’s (surprisingly) not common knowledge. I thought it might be of interest to the readers of your blog. If you think it relevant (not to be presumptuous) to post, I’d rather be anonymous – Sincerely, – Anonymous

Letter Re: eXRS Radios and Texting in the Field

James:|
A current discussion forum thread {at AR15.com] on eXRS two-way radios is worthy of mention. Also see this description.

In searching the SurvivalBlog archives, I only found one post mentioning eXRS Radios. Here is a description of test by a paintball team.

What are your thoughts for secure short range comm? Text messaging could have some uses for silent comm. – Craig W.

JWR Replies: The eXRS radios are fine in the voice mode, but I am very dubious of the tactical practicality of text messaging, at least once the lead starts flying. Who in their right mind is going to want to take their eyes off the immediate situation for that long? The US military uses handheld text and graphics devices only in very limited situations, such as artillery fire control, and relaying information for close air support. Special Forces field tests with sophisticated graphics systems such as the Inter-4 Tacticomp (made, BTW by one of my former employers) showed that they only had genuine utility in setting up tactical situations. Once the first shot was fired, the gadgets were often tossed aside and operators reverted to good old fashioned shouts and hand-arm signals.

In contrast to the complexity of texting, voice communications are proven and fairly reliable. Also, keep in mind that we are living in the era of light amplification night vision equipment. This will turn even a small backlit LCD display into a huge “shoot me” beacon at night. (I should mention here that most currently-produced full mil spec electronics have a very dim “NVG” mode, which these radios lack. It is probably feasible to do a modification that would disable the back-light element(s). Failing that, an improvised cover using a strip of ubiquitous duck tape will suffice.) You can of course also use the expedient of working under a draped poncho. This method has been used for many years for map reading at night, with a red lens flashlight. But again, the tactical utility of texting is doubtful. In essence:, if you are in a situation where you are close enough that you would worry about opponents hearing you use voice communications, then that is also close enough (read: within rifle range) that you wouldn’t want to sacrifice situational awareness to be looking down at text messaging device. Ear buds and small boom microphones seem far more practical for most short range tactical communications.

The bottom line: Buy the best hand-helds that you can, and when outdoors use them exclusively with ear buds. The eXRS radios are a good option, particularly in a signal-dense urban environment. And I am also a big believer in rock solid radio communications and intrusion detection sensors as effective force multipliers. (In a rural retreat situation, with limited manpower, I can foresee that have one radio frequency for both voice comms and intrusion detection will be ideal.)

I’ll close with one big proviso: Don’t make the mistake of becoming overly dependent on gadgets. Time and weather will take their toll. (As The Memsahib is fond of saying; “It’s entropy, Jim, entropy.”) Always have a Plan B and C for communications, and be ready and able to revert from high tech to no tech. Train for both best case and worst case situations, when it comes to your electronics.

Economics and Investing:

Economics and Investing:

A picture is worth a thousand words: Graph of Four Bad Bear Markets. Based upon house prices, commercial real estate prices, and stock P/E rations, I’d say the markets have another 50% or more to fall, and the painful process may take another eight to ten years. And that is just to reach rock bottom, There may be another 10 years of climbing back up out of the hole that “Easy Al” Greenspan and his successors dug for the planet. (Link courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain blog, and brought to our attention by SurvivalBlog reader Ben H.)

Thanks to Thomas A., who set us the link to this piece at Seeking Alpha: China Trying to Break the Euro?

HPD flagged this piece by Mish Shedlock: Bernanke Admits Fed Is Clueless and Banks are Zombified. HPD quips: “Mish is getting funnier as Bernanke gets more absurd.”

Items from The Economatrix:

How Can the US Economy Recover Without Manufacturing?

Wall Street Sinks as Obama Warns of Oversight

GM Posts $9.6B 4Q Losses; Burns Through $6.2B Cash

667,000 New Jobless Claims; Continuing Claims Top 5.1 Million

The Light Dims at GE

Governor of B. of E. Says “Impossible to Say” How Much Needed to Shore Up Banking System

Depression in the East Points the Way for the Rest of the World

Hungary on Brink of Bankruptcy

Gold Coin Shortage as Demand Soars

US May Break up AIG to Keep it Afloat

The Next Big Financial Meltdown

Laid Off? No New Job? How Bad Can it Get?

The Spectacular, Sudden Crash of the Global Economy

Worried Investors Want Gold On Hand “The global recession and worries about the stability of the financial system have sent the price of gold to $1,000 an ounce. But more surprising is that buyers are taking the unusual and expensive step of taking possession of it.”

The Price of Protection (The Mogambo Guru)

Plus Side of Stupidity (The Mogambo Guru)

Odds ‘n Sods:

Susan Z. sent us this article about barter from Michael Panzner’s blog: Cashless Improvisation

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F.R. sent this: Brit Couple Saved After 40 Days Lost at Sea

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The folks at Safecastle mentioned that their big 25% off sale on Mountain House canned long-term storage foods is underway. Safecastle Royal members who buy four cases or more (at 25% off and free shipping of course) get a free 35 gram pouch of CELOX traumatic wound coagulant. If they buy 12 cases or more, they get a CELOX pouch and an Optimus Crux lightweight backpacking stove (see further details at the manufacturer’s web site), and they will receive rebate vouchers to use in subsequent transactions.

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A reader in Hawaii wrote me to ask: “I want to buy a 3 in 1 machine. Does anyone have any experience with them? Perhaps a brand to recommend or stay away from?” JWR Adds: Since I don’t have a background in machining, I’m hoping that someone knowledgeable will e-mail me with some recommendations. Up until last year, I probably would have recommended the Shopmaster. But they recently transitioned the new “Patriot” model, which ironically is made in Mainland China! To the best of my knowledge, all the 3-in-1 machines marketed by Harbor Freight are also made in China. Any suggestions, folks?

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“When they call the roll in Congress, our Congressmen don’t know whether to answer present, or guilty.” – Colonel Theodore Roosevelt, 1st US Volunteer Cavalry, Manzanillo, Cuba 1898 (to a Hearst newspaper reporter)

Notes from JWR:

Here it comes! Despite his campaign promises: “I believe in the Second Amendment. I believe in people’s lawful right to bear arms. I will not take your shotgun away. I will not take your rifle away. I won’t take your handgun away. … There are some common-sense gun safety laws that I believe in. But I am not going to take your guns away. .”, it comes as no surprise that President Obama is now asking congress to renew the 1994 Federal “assault weapons” and “high capacity” magazine ban. Now, just a few months later he has done an about-face and says he does want to take your guns away. Oh, but its necessary, he says, to save Mexico from the Drug War. If reenacted, unlike its predecessor, the new ban will likely have no sunset clause. Knowing the history of Federal of bans and freezes, the ban will cause the price of many semiautomatic guns to double, and and the price of 11+ round magazines to triple or quadruple. Now is the time to start writing your congresscritters. This unconstitutional legislation must be stopped!

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The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $520. This auction is for a large mixed lot, which includes::

1.) Another “be ready to barter” box of 38 full-capacity gun magazines, from my personal collection in JASBORR. This box includes: 4 – Used original East German 30 rd. steel AK-47 magazines in a “raindrop” camouflage pattern belt pouch, 12 – Excellent-to-new condition original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Well-used but serviceable condition original Austrian FN-FAL steel 20 round magazines with cartridge counter holes, 10 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (all Colt made!) alloy 20 round magazines, and 6 – Excellent to new condition original (Norwegian contract) Glock Model 17 9mm 17 round pistol magazines (early type, with “U” notch). All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $700, in today’s market. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

3.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

4.) Five cases (200 pairs) of AMMEX Heatworks chemical hand warmers (a $182.50 value), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com

5.) A Brunton Solarport 4 (4.4 Watt) compact photovoltaic power panel and 6/12 VDC power adaptor set, including as USB power port. This is a $120 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

6.) A Pelican Model 1400 waterproof case in olive drab, ideal for pistols, Starlight scopes, or communications gear. This is a $95 retail value, courtesy of Scorpion Survival.

7.) A Non-Hybrid Garden Security Collection, Garden Bean Collection, and your choice of a pint of fertile grains (Hull-less Oats, Spelt, or Winter Rye), a $50 + retail value, courtesy of Seed For Security.

Thus, this auction has a combined value in excess of $1,600. This auction ends on March 15th. Please e-mail us your bid. Your bid will be for the entire mixed lot.

Depression Proof Jobs for a 20 Year Depression – Part 1: The Counter-Cyclical Jobs

The current economic downward spiral has prompted several SurvivalBlog readers to write me and ask: “My job is now at risk, so what are the safe jobs?” I’ve actually addressed this topic fairly well since I started SurvivalBlog in 2005. We ran a “best recession-proof jobs” poll, back in May of 2006. Then, in February, 2007, we ran a poll on “Best Occupations for Both Before and After TEOTWAWKI”. Later, we even ran a poll on the current occupations of SurvivalBlog readers. In the past three years, we’ve also posted a panoply of more detailed employment-related letters and articles on subjects such as:

How to set up a home-based second business,

Bartering skills,

Home-based mail order businesses,

Small sawmills,

Gunsmithing,

Handloading ammunition,

Horse breeding,

Rabbit breeding,

Small machine shops,

Selling and bartering through Freecycle,

Selling and bartering through Craig’s List, and

19th Century Trades.

And those were just the ones that I found in a cursory 10-minute search of the SurvivalBlog archives. There are many more. Just type a topic into the “Search Posts on SurvivalBlog:” box at the top of the right -hand bar. (We now have nearly 6,200 archived articles, letters, and quotes!)

 

Which Jobs Were Safe in the 1930s?

One good insight on the near future can be found in the past. (As Mark Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”)

According to statistics published some 20 years ago by Dr.Ravi Batra, the safest businesses and industries during the worst years of the Great Depression (1929-1933) were:

Repair shops
Educational services (A lot of young men that couldn’t find work borrowed money to go to trade schools and college.)
Healthcare services
Bicycle shops
Bus transportation
Gasoline service stations
Second hand stores
Legal services
Drug or proprietary stores

To bring Batra’s list up to date, I would speculatively add a few more sectors and business that are likely to do well in the next depression:

Home security and locksmithing (since a higher crime rate is inevitable in bad economic times.)
Entertainment and diversions, such as DVD sales and rentals. People will undoubtedly want to escape their troubles!
Truck farming and large scale vegetable gardening (since just 2% of the population now feeds the other 98%–whereas back in the 1930s the US was still a predominantly agrarian society)
Export consumer goods. (Starting in late 2009 or early 2010, the US Dollar is likely to resume its slide versus most other currencies)

Tomorrow, I’ll post Part 2 of this article, in which I will focus on home-based businesses.

Letter Re: Buying Kindle Reader for Accessing Survival References?

Mr. Rawles;

Given that even the smallest of windmills driving an automobile alternator can keep a 12 volt DC battery charged, and from that you can run a myriad of small devices, what is your opinion of Amazon’s Kindle [mobile book reading screen] for keeping all the documents you might need, like the entire archives of SurvivalBlog? Amazon is now offering “Version 2” [of Kindle] , which seems easier to load with personal documents. Is it worth it as a backup library, or is it too fragile? – Sandy W.

JWR Replies: Buying a shiny new Kindle for that purpose is like “putting all your eggs in one basket”. I would much rather put all my archived preparedness reference documents on multiple copies on CD-ROMs and then buy two or three used laptop computers with cosmetic defects. (The ongoing corporate layoffs in the US will surely mean that the market will soon be flooded with high quality used laptops for under $200 each, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some offered for under $100 each.) Store those laptops in 40mm ammo cans to help protect then from EMP. Redundancy is the key. One of my mottos is: “Two is one, and one is none.”

Here at the Rawles Ranch we recently obtained a Brunton Solarport 4.4 (4.4 Watt) compact photovoltaic (PV) panel for testing. These produce .29 amps (at 15 volts) in full sunlight, which is enough to charge flashlight batteries or a cellular phone, but not enough to power a laptop. (But up to three Brunton PowerPorts can be “daisy chained” together (in parallel) to provide additional current.) I consider the Brunton PowerPort a “micro” mobile solar power solution. A more practical “mini” at-home or RV power solution is to buy a 10 watt PV panel (such as those sold by Northern Tool & Equipment or comparable panel such as the and a portable automobile “jump pack” gel cell battery, (available at any local auto parts store, or from a variety of Internet vendors). By placing the PV panel inside a southern-facing window (indoors or inside a vehicle, to protect it from the elements) you can trickle charge a jump pack and easily get one hour of laptop use per day.

Letter Re: Is it Deflation or Inflation Ahead? Should I Pay Down My Debts?

JWR,
Thanks for the always excellent blog. I recently came into a significant wad of money, more than $100,000. I have been toying with my options. I owe around $200,000 on my house, but I can afford the payments no problem; I am self employed in a health-care related field that I do not expect to struggle.

My thought process goes something like this: Why should I pay the mortgage down on my house since (1) I can afford my house easily, (2) with inflation coming I would rather pay it down with 2012 or 2014 dollars (that are “worth less” if not “worthless”) than current dollars, and (3) before I default on my house loan, there will be 95% of other Americans who also default… so why should I worry about it? To me it seems to make much more sense to take that money and invest in gold, silver and guns, which I can sell for a nice profit–or at least, not lose huge amounts of value due to inflation. Or, just buy even more food, hand tools, etc. etc.

I keep thinking there must be a problem with my thought process, since you advocate paying down debt first. If there is a problem, what is it?
I have a fair amount of beans, bullets and Band-Aids already, by the way…
Thanks, – WPR

JWR Replies: It appears that we’ll have another 12 to 24 months of deflation before the much-heralded inflation will likely kick in. If someone loses their job in the midst of deflation, then they might also lose their house. And even after inflation starts to increase, you will still need some income to make house and car payments. No job means no cash flow, and that will soon precipitate a foreclosure.

Since you are otherwise well squared-away logistically, I recommend that you put most of the $100,000 that you mentioned into 1 ounce gold US Eagles. (Get it out of anything dollar-denominated!) Wait until gold jumps up past $1,600 per ounce (+/- 2010?). At that point, do your best determine if further deflation seems likely. If so, then pay down you mortgage, just in case of layoffs. But if mass inflation seems imminent, just hold on to your gold, and gradually pay off your mortgage with cheaper dollars. You gold investment will then act as your “in case of layoff” insurance.

Economics and Investing:

E.L. sent us the link to this “must watch” seven minute video clip of from Fed Chairman Paul Volker. It has some interesting nuggets and is a somber assessment of the unfolding global economic collapse.

Reader “Darth Paul” mentioned a video clip of an ex-IMF Chief Economist. Paul’s comment: “I especially got caught up at 6:40 on the counter: “Obama’s and Geithner’s choices for administration? It’s a huge problem!”, “I’m trying to be positive but my intuition from crises is that this is gonna get a lot worste…we are going down a long, dark, blind alley”.”

Mark in Michigan flagged this: Crime spike attributed to economy. Mark’s comments: “This was an interesting story that exhibited two important things. One, there is indeed a thin veneer to civilized society. Two, it’s important to have and be good neighbors.”

Items from The Economatrix:

Asia Stocks Fall Heavily on Growing US Fears

ECB Faces Mutiny From Bank Governors

Alarm Over Europe’s Credit Contraction

Government Says “Mass Layoffs” Soared in January

UK: Savers Withdraw Record Amount From Banks

Banks Face New Wave of CDS Losses, Analysts Warn (Hmmm…JWR’s 2006 warnings about dervatives are coming true.)

German CDS Debt Spreads Hit Record as Economy Crumbles

European Banking Bailout Threatens Common Market, Finance Baron Warns

Japan’s Exports Nearly Halved in One Year

Japanese Carmakers Slash Production By 50%

Russian Economy Hit by 8.8% Decline

Latvian Debt is Rated Junk Status

Russia: Problems Rise with Falling Oil Prices

Government Digs a Deeper Hole

Defaults by Franchisees Soar as Recession Deepens

Bankrupt Delphi Told it Can Cancel Retirees’ Benefits

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader E.L. recommended a series of five instructional videos available on YouTube. They explains the “why and how” of setting up ALICE web gear .

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“FFF” suggested this article over at Backwoods Home magazine’s web site: Ice Storm 2009: A Cautionary Tale

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Mark P. mentioned that 38 years of The Mother Earth News have been archived on CD-ROMs. In my opinion, the first 25 years were the best. OBTW, speaking of references on genuine self-sufficiency, I highly recommend the compendiums of Backwoods Home magazine, in hard copy books and CD-ROM. The Memsahib hopes that Countryside and Small Stock Journal (her favorite magazine) does the same.