Economics and Investing:

Reader Greg C. found this: Treasury needs record $361 Billion April-June borrowing. (Greg’s comment: “And while we are all watching a little flu bug down south….”)

From G.N.C.: Roubini: ‘Suckers Rally’ In Stocks To Fade. “It’s not a true recovery. It’s just a bear-market rally, it’s a suckers’ rally.”

Steve in southern Oregon sent this item: Jim Rogers Isn’t Buying a U.S. Stock Recovery

Items from The Economatrix:

Chrysler Reaches Deal With Union, Fiat Before Deadline

Flu could boost government intervention further

From Michael Panzner’s blog: Evidence to the Contrary. “Despite all the evidence to the contrary, mainstream types keep insisting on two things: that what we are going through right now is a recession — albeit a severe one — and the worst is (or will soon be) over. Hogwash.”

Don Stott’s commentary on inflation (part 1)

Drugmaker shares rise on swine-flu outbreak



Odds ‘n Sods:

Rourke sent a link to an article in the Kansas City Star: Some stockpiling to prepare should times turn perilous

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Thanks to MVR for this: The Geomagnetic Apocalypse — And How to Stop It

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California Shooting Fair Closes for Lack of Ammo (Thanks to FloridaGuy for the link.)

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KAF flagged this: Hardtack, Once a Staple of Sailing Ships, Still Prospers in Hawaii. It has great shelf life, especially when vacuum packed. BTW, I believe that the author is mistaken when describing the “joke” origin of the term “Saloon Pilot” The saloon (or salon) is the social cabin of a ship. And pilot refers to pilot rations–food for use aboard ship.





Note from JWR:

Our SurvivalRealty spin-off site is continuing to flourish. There are some amazing retreat properties listed there, including the latest listing, a unique “castle” retreat in southwestern Oregon.



Mexican Flu Update

The new H1N1 swine-avian-human influenza is certainly getting its share of headlines. It will be interesting to see how this event progresses, and the reactions of the populace and governments. Here are some updates:

The Mexican Flu now has a Wikipedia page that seems to be kept quite up to date.

Here is a Google map showing the locales of confirmed and suspected cases

Doc D. mentioned this piece at Mashable: How To: Track Swine Flu Online

SurvivalBlog readers in Texas and Southern California have already noted shortages of Sambucol at their local drug stores. It is safe to assume that if the contagion spreads rapidly that there will be lots of shortages of N95 respirators, disposable coarse-mesh paper masks (not much good against even clumped viruses), hand sanitizer, Tamiflu, Sambucol, Cipro, and canned goods.

Several SurvivalBlog readers have written to mention that Mexico City is a powder keg. For example, reader Greg C. wrote to ask: “Has anyone thought about where 20 million residents of Mexico City will go when they all start to panic and bug out of the city?”

Have you ever wondered how viruses can spread so quickly? A YouTube animation of airline flight paths is fascinating. (Thanks to Susan W. for the link.)Whilst there, I spotted a worldwide view of air traffic.

Safecastle (one of our advertisers), reports that they’ve had a huge increase in sales of HarzardID decontamination kits. I don’t expect those to last long.

News Headlines: (Special thanks to Cheryl, aka “The Economatrix” for sending most of these)

Swine flu and deaths in healthy adults–cytokine storm?

Asia on alert over swine flu threat

Face Masks Analyzed as Aid in Flu Pandemic (Thanks to Matt R for the link.) Matt adds: “Home Depot and Lowe’s both sell N95 respirators.” (So do several Internet vendors such as Ready Made Resources.) And speaking of masks, Chris W. suggested a FDA reference page.

WHO Declares International Concern Over Swine Flu

Mexico May Isolate Patients with Deadly Swine Flu

Eight New York Students Likely Have Strain of Swine Flu 30 children in Bronx daycare have flu-like symptoms

Swine Flu Could Mutate to More Dangerous Strain

No New Local Cases of Swine Flu Reported Locally (San Diego, CA) “However, they continued to caution that more illnesses are likely to surface as local, state and federal disease investigators examine more people suffering flu-like symptoms.”

Swine Flu to Be Probed, No Pandemic Yet (Imperial Valley, CA)

Mexico Fights Swine Flu With “Pandemic Potential”

Swine flu cases discovered in Canada

NYC School Cases Confirmed Swine Flu

U.S. Declares Public Health Emergency Over Swine Flu

Swine Flu Empties Mexico City’s Streets Official Numbers: 81 dead, 1,324 infected in Mexico; Suspected cases elsewhere including New Zealand

Swine Flu Fears as New Zealand Students Quarantined

CDC: Flu Has Spread Widely, Cannot Be Contained

Texas Health Dept. Closes School; Bans Sick Reporter From News Conference

Third Texas Case Of Swine Flu Confirmed; Family Quarantined

Seventh Case of Swine Flu Confirmed in California

US to begin asking about flu at the border. (Why didn’t they close the border, 48 hours ago?)

Canada Confirms Four Cases

Mexico Streets Empty as Swine Flu Toll Climbs

Swine Flu: White House Has Unusual Sunday Briefing

Anxiety Grips Hospital Waiting Rooms as Fears of Swine Flu Spread Through the City

World on Alert Over Mexican Killer Swine Flu as Pandemic Fears Rise Suspected cases also in France, Israel. Medical personnel said symptoms began like normal flu, but then victims’ temperatures shot up, with paralysing muscle aches.

Swine Flu: Panic Spreads Worldwide

British Airways Cabin Crew Member Quarantined; Fell Ill on Flight to UK From Mexico

And in closing, here is a PDF to keep in your reference file: a very detailed description of how to perform Chest Physical Therapy on a person who is having difficulty clearing their lungs. (A tip of the hat to reader John H.)



Letter Re: Sambucol and the Cytokine Storm

Jim,
Reading through your flu background article [Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic], I found your mention of [the Elderberry extract] Sambucol. I’m going to get some but you might want to read the article on Elderberry posted at the fluwiki web site.

It sounds generally positive about Sambucol for seasonal flu, but does say this regarding avian flu:

“However, elderberry also increases cytokine production. One specific concern with H5N1 infections is the possibility that this strain of flu may induce cytokine storm, leading to ARDS and the high mortality associated with it. It is unknown if the increased circulating cytokines that elderberry and other alternative medicines induce could increase a victims risk of cytokine storm. Medical science does not currently know the exact mechanism that triggers cytokine storm. We cannot say if increased cytokine levels before or during infection is a risk factor for ARDS or an effect of some other mechanism that begins the inflammatory cascade that results in it. High cytokine levels are documented to be associated with ARDS, but causation is unknown…”

Regards, – Matt R.



Letter Re: Caught Between OPSEC and a Hard Place

Jim,
A friend of mine had a recent encounter with the police that illustrates the importance of Operational Security (OPSEC), even for the tiniest details. My friend is a survivalist and keeps both an SKS (unloaded but with ammo nearby) and a CZ handgun (loaded) in the cab of his truck. This is basically what Boston T. Party and others recommend: a handgun instantly at the ready and a rifle nearby. My friend does not have a CCW permit and in Washington State you must have a permit to have a loaded gun in a vehicle. He was pulled over while driving on the freeway, and his conversation with the officer who pulled him over went something like:

Cop: “I pulled you over because you failed to signal when you changed lanes…”
My Friend: “Oh, that’s odd, I know I used my signal.”
Cop: “…And I see that you have an NRA sticker on the back of your truck. Do you have any firearms in the vehicle?”
My Friend: “Yes.”
Cop: “Get out, I’m going to search the vehicle.”

After searching and finding the CZ, the cop arrested my friend for having a concealed weapon without a permit (note that the gun was “concealed” in the car, not on his person). With my friend locked in the back of the police car, the cop proceeded to hold the SKS up in the air on the side of the freeway, checking the chamber to see if it was loaded (while hundreds of people drove by). I’ll skip the rant about this incident further lowering my already-low opinion of the Police, and concentrate on the OPSEC implications.

The cop never asked permission to search the vehicle: he informed my friend that he was going to search. My friend likely did not commit any traffic infraction, and was probably pulled over just for having an NRA sticker. He is now facing misdemeanor charges for carrying concealed without a permit; If he is convicted he will have a criminal record. The CZ has been confiscated and he will never get it back.

Like many people, my friend did not want to get a CCW permit and put his name on a government list of people who carry weapons; he saw getting a CCW as a breach of OPSEC. He chose to exercise his Second Amendment rights despite an unjust state law and he carried without a permit. If he hadn’t committed another, tiny breach of OPSEC, he would not have gotten caught. It’s sad that we’re at the point where even being seen as a supporter of the NRA has become a breach of OPSEC, and something we must hide from the police. Because of this incident I will be removing the NRA sticker from my own vehicle soon. – “Big D” in Washington

JWR Replies: To begin with, your friend handed his exchange with the officer the wrong way. He could have maintained his privacy and his Fourth Amendment rights by not answering the officer’s question or by changing the subject, when the officer went on his “fishing expedition.” I am a Christian and I don’t believe in bearing false witness, but there is no Biblical admonition about opening one’s mouth. In fact, there is just the opposite: See: Proverbs 18:7: “A fool’s mouth is his destruction, and his lips are the snare of his soul.” I also recommend the “Don’t Talk to the Police” lecture by Professor James Duane, that has been mentioned before in SurvivalBlog. I consider it “must” viewing for teenagers and adults. I also recommend studying the book You & the Police! by Boston T. Party.

And, yes, it is a sad state of affairs when we have to hide our political affiliations when traveling public highways.



Economics and Investing:

From Z.T.:Finance officials at odds over IMF funding plan

Spotted over at Gold-Eagle: At the Heart of America’s Economic Problems, by Paul Mladjenovic

Items from The Economatrix:

Bank Industry Await Results of Stress Tests

GM and Chrysler: Goodnight

G-8’s First Bankruptcy “To paraphrase Churchill, the UK economy is now a disaster, wrapped in a catastrophe inside a calamity. And someone just flushed the key down the proverbial…”

Volcker Punctures the Nonsense (The Mogambo Guru)

The Fed’s Cash Machine

Fed Says Government Ready to Save Stress-Tested Banks

Microsoft Has First Quarterly Fall in Revenue in 23 Years

Germany’s Slump Risks “Explosive” Mood as Second Banking Crisis Looms

Spain Jobless Total Over 4 Million


UK Budget 2009: “Now We Are All Up To Our Ears In It”

The Hartford Seeking Bids for its Insurance Operations

Feds Close Four More Banks: First Bank of Idaho, Ketchum, IdahoFirst Bank of Beverly Hills, Calabasas, CaliforniaMichigan Heritage Bank, Farmington Hills, MichiganAmerican Southern Bank, Kennesaw, Georgia



Odds ‘n Sods:

Gloria spotted this article on urban survival: Live off the land — in the city

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Brian H. mentioned: Striking EDF Power Utility Workers Cut Power to French Homes

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Courtesy of Cheryl: Basics For The Beginning Gardener

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When it comes to AR-15 uppers, I thought that I seen it all. There are barreled AR uppers on the market for everything from .22 LR , to 5.45×39 Russian, to 8mm Mauser Belt-Fed, to .50 Browning. But this crossbow upper surprised me. FWIW, there are a lot of things that I’d rather buy for $1,300. (A tip of the hat to Hawaiian K. for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“If, [when] evil cometh upon us, [as] the sword, judgment, or pestilence, or famine, we stand before this house, and in thy presence, (for thy name [is] in this house,) and cry unto thee in our affliction, then thou wilt hear and help.” – From Jehoshaphat’s prayer, 2 Chronicle 20:9 (KJV)





The Mexican Flu and You

In the past 24 hours I’ve received dozens of e-mails from SurvivalBlog readers about the emerging Mexican Flu. Some news stories have included cryptic comments from heath officials, implying that the mechanism of infection makes this particular virus “very difficult to contain.” This leads me to conclude that those infected have a long latency period during which they are infectious, yet, they do not display frank symptoms. This does not bode well for any hopes of containing the spread of the virus.

Then we hear a CDC official stating: “The swine flu virus contains four different gene segments representing both North American swine and avian influenza, human flu and a Eurasian swine flu.” That strikes we as something very peculiar.

The disease is respiratory, and has one strong similarity to the 1918 Spanish Flu: “The majority were young adults between 25 and 45 years old,” said one official under the condition of anonymity. Since, young and healthy people with strong immune systems are the most likely to succumb, this might indicate that the biggest killer is a cytokine storm–a collapse caused by the human immune system’s over-reaction to a pathogen.

I strongly recommend that everyone reading this take the time to re-read my background article on flu self-quarantine and other precautions: Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic. The details that I give there are quite important. Pay special attention to my discussion of the shortage of hospital ventilators. If anyone in your family is immunosuppressed, consider yourselves on alert. Make your final preparations to hunker down, immediately.

In the next few days, there is a good chance of wholesale panic, including some well-publicized “runs” –probably first for hand sanitizer and face masks, and soon after for bottled water and groceries. Plan on it.

UPDATE: The BBC News web page Mexico flu: Your experiences has some updates posted from individuals in Mexico City

To summarize, here are some key quotes from a recent article:

“This outbreak is particularly worrisome because deaths have happened in at least four different regions of Mexico, and because the victims have not been vulnerable infants and elderly.

“The most notorious flu pandemic, thought to have killed at least 40 million people worldwide in 1918-19, also first struck otherwise healthy young adults.”

“But it may be too late to contain the outbreak, given how widespread the known cases are. If the confirmed deaths are the first signs of a pandemic, then cases are probably incubating around the world by now, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a pandemic flu expert at the University of Minnesota.

“No vaccine specifically protects against swine flu, and it is unclear how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer.”

Current statistics show a less than 10% lethality rate, but of course the first wave of flu victims are getting access to the best medical care available. If the contagion spreads, sheer numbers will quickly overwhelm hospital facilities–particularly the number of mechanical ventilators available. So the lethality rate may rise, even if there is not a viral mutation.

Here are the latest headlines on the flu, as well as some background pieces. I’ll post more links, as they become available.

Swine Flu, Mexico Lung Illness Heighten Pandemic Risk

Swine flu could infect U.S. trade and travel

Mexico Races to Stop Deadly Flu Virus

Spanish Flu Survivors Remember

Some Facts About Past Flu Pandemics

WHO ready with antivirals to combat swine flu


Possible Swine Flu Outbreak at NYC Prep School

California Expects To Find More New Flu Cases

Swine Flu Jitters Sparks Sell-Off In US Hogs


Swine Flu Resources

Most Mexico fatal flu victims aged between 25-45

Swine Flu May Be Named Event of ‘International Concern’ by WHO

[A UK] County’s masterplan to deal with flu pandemic

 



Letter Re: Atheism and Choosing Your Neighborhood

James:
I am a new reader to SurvivalBlog and a big fan of “Patriots” ., I have been reading all the archives and old posts, and I would just like to clear one thing up. I am an atheist. I don’t believe that there is sufficient evidence to prove the existence of a supreme power. This does not make make me a bad person. There have been some posts about choosing your neighbors that have said Christians and Jewish people make best neighbors because they are “God fearing” etc.

Just because I don’t believe in a god does not mean I am going to kill/steal/rape in a TEOTWAWKI situation. It hurts me when I read such generalizations. Just because I’m an atheist, I am not going to harm you. I believe in the rule of law and mutual respect. I don’t decide not to kill or steal because I fear a punishment from god. I choose not to do these things because they are wrong, I don’t need a god or bible to tell me they are wrong.

Atheists are not barbarians, without morals. I help my neighbors, I work hard and believe in self reliance and preparedness. I am trustworthy and respectful. I have encountered many so called “God fearing” believers who I cannot say the same for. God may not be a driving force in my life, but I still know the difference between right and wrong. I will not try to convert you, I am not one of those loud atheists who will try to tell you how wrong you are. I believe in everyone’s right to believe what they may, and I ask all to give me the same courtesy.

Religion and morals are not the same thing. I don’t need to believe in a supreme power to have morals and know what is right and wrong. I just wanted to clear up these misconceptions. I really hope you post this. Thank you for your work, SurvivalBlog is a great knowledge source, – J. in Michigan

JWR Replies: The comment in my Precepts page that you mentioned is not a question of individuals, because there are indeed exceptional individuals, and I’m confident that you are one of them. Rather, this is a question of averages. On average, people that have the moral underpinning of the Judeo-Christian religious ethic are less likely to commit property crimes than those that don’t, and statistics bear this out. For example, look at the “Property”crime rates for particular counties in California (The City and County of San Francisco, for example, has one of the lowest church attendance rates in the country). Compare that to the more religious counties of North Dakota (a “Bible Belt” state). This map is quite an interesting starting place. Sorry, but facts are facts. Property crime rates are generally higher in communities with a low ratio of church attendance. My choice to live in a tight-knit religious community is not a reflection on you as an individual. It is just a conscious choice, based upon statistical correlation and my strong conviction as a Christian, to do so. FWIW, please consider that a religious community is also the safest place for you–an atheist with morals–to live, too.

If I hypothetically had to live in New York or New Jersey, then I’d probably pick a small town with a predominance of Christians or Orthodox Jews for neighbors.



Letter Re: Learning the Details of Self-Sufficiency

Jim,
I’d like to add an additional perspective on the letter on “Learning the Details of Self-Sufficiency” — the conscious competence learning model. I’d like to pull back the shade a bit on why ‘just buying stuff’ and reading books isn’t going to cut it when the balloon goes up.

Many folks are ‘buying things’, reading books, searching the internet with the thought that when the time comes, they will begin living the self-sufficient lifestyle in the country. The aforementioned letter points out the folly of this approach. I just want to take a step back and look at why so many people are taking an unproductive approach — it has to do with how people assimilate new skills.

With a new skill set (like self-sufficient living in this example) a person at first is unconsciously incompetent (stage #1). Here a person doesn’t even know what they don’t know. They certainly don’t understand the ramifications of not having mastery of the things they don’t know. Most people stop right here. They feel safe. In fact, it’s not until they go a bit further into consciously incompetent (stage #2) when they begin for the first time to understand some of the things at which they are incompetent; and begin to realize the impact of their incompetence on their desired outcome.

Stage 2 lasts a long time because the more a person learns, the more necessary skills they uncover, which skills they have no experience whatsoever. It’s not until you actually eat the beans you’ve canned, which were stored in the root cellar you made; which beans grew in your garden, which garden you protected from insects, which plot you cleared from the forest, fenced from the deer, amended the soil, selected the correct variety of bean seed, planted at the correct depth,with the correct spacing, at the right time of year, with the proper sun exposure, etc. Then and only then will you have begun to have some gardening experience — for beans. Then you can begin to appreciate that beans are not carrots. Carrots have different needs, and hey, wow, I wonder if all these different vegetables, grains and fruits have different requirements? Gee, what would happen if I grew my garden in ‘compost’ I bought from a local garden center and the entire crop failed, and I couldn’t buy my veggies from Wal-Mart? Last example was a true story for me as a local nursery sold me 10 yards of ‘compost’ which [later] tested almost zero for N, P, & K. My crops bolted and died within three weeks.

Stage 3 is conscious competence. This is when you can perform a skill reliably at will. I can put up more beans this year, I know how to do it; I know how many rows of what dimension and how much seed I need. I want to put up some dilly beans, I know how to do that too. I can cook using the blanched and frozen beans I grew last year.

Stage 4 is unconscious competence. This is where you aren’t even aware of the skills you are using to produce the desired result. People who reach this level of expertise often can’t teach another person how to do what they are doing because so much ability (not knowledge — big difference) is assumed. Have you ever seen a craftsman produce a beautiful result, and make it look easy? Then you tried and found, “Hey, this is harder than it looks!” That’s what stage 4 is, and where you need to be before you risk your family’s life on homesteading in the midst of a crisis.

We’ve only talked about beans so far; how about production quantity gardening for the 20 or so veggies, fruits, and grains you’re going to need? How about producing pork? Chicken? Rabbit? Lamb? Can you breed, select, grow, cull, harvest, process, store, and prepare all of these? How about dairy operations? Retreat security? Redundant water systems in place? Redundant power systems in place and functioning? Productive relationships with neighbors? Suppliers? I’d like to give you a more complete list, but I’ve been doing this for years now, so I don’t even know all I know!

If you aren’t doing these things right now, then you won’t be any good at them in a time of need. The only way to gain new skills is by doing. Take advantage of whatever time we have left before things get much worse, and go do it! – Mr. Kilo



Economics and Investing:

Herb Dennenberg of the Philadelphia Bulletin warns: US Marches Toward a Financial Disaster Worse Than Anyone Thinks. (A tip of the hat to “The Other Jim R.”)

GG flagged a Forbes column by Steve H. Hanke, warning that inflation will roar back with a vengeance: Fed Up

Items from The Economatrix:

Rush to Universities to Escape Recession

GM to Default on $1 Billion Bond Payment

IMF Predicts World Recession Will Deepen

Morgan Stanley Reports Four-Month Losses of $1.47 Billion

Geithner: Worst Trade Bust Since WWII

Soaring US Budget Deficit Will Mean Billions in Bond Sales
“Millions of lost jobs mean billions in lost tax revenue for the U.S. government, and billions in additional Treasury debt to fund a federal budget deficit that may soar to more than four times last year’s record $454.7 billion.”

Cheney: Obama Economic Plan “Dangerous”

Hedge Funds, Unhinged

Quadrangle Facing Questions Over Pension Funds

Florida County Declares State of Economic Emergency Over Economy

Wells Fargo Reports 52% Jump in Earnings