Economics and Investing:

Reader Ken M. mentioned that the full text of the book When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Collapse is available at the Ludwig Von Mises Institute web site.

Frequent content contributor KAF suggested a piece at the Fuelishness blog: Oil Prices Continue to Spike Despite Massive Surplus – Outpacing Economic Recovery

Items from The Economatrix:

Illinois Bank of Lincolnwood Fails, 37th For Year, 6th in State

Dr. Gary North: Stock Market Investors Mindset of Guaranteed Economic Destruction

“And when things turn out much worse than even most newsletter writers are forecasting, you will be hated. Are you prepared for this?
Do you have a real plan to deal with what is obviously an unfolding disaster: rising government ownership, massive deficits, rising unemployment, falling house prices, busted retirement pensions, rising interest rates (falling corporate bonds), and Federal Reserve inflation on a scale never seen in American history?
Or do you think you can delay. “No problem!”

Either Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

No US Bear Market Bottom Until 2011

US Housing Mortgage Market Meltdown, More Pain to Come

The Great Crash Not Over, Stocks Bear Market Rally Built On Sand

Stock Market Rally: Focusing on the Facts


Crude Oil Imminent Trend Reversal


Ending of Deflation Fears, Big Inflation Coming
“In fact, per the US government’s own GDP data, since early 2006 the US economy has only grown 11.0%, a far cry from the 40.4% the Fed has grown MZM over this span. And since early 2008, GDP is actually dead flat at 0.4% while MZM money has soared 16.8%. In both cases the excesses are pure inflation, new dollars created out of thin air that are now chasing a relatively smaller pool of things. Higher general prices are the inevitable result. And boy, if you exist you know this! Over the past several years, have your costs of living risen or fallen? Is your food at grocery stores and restaurants getting cheaper or more expensive? Are your utilities bills and insurance costs rising or falling? Do you feel like you have more disposable income after necessary expenses or less? We all see this relentless and very real inflation no matter what the government statisticians try to tell us. The nominal cost for existence just keeps rising and rising thanks to the Fed.”

This Stock Market is a Fool’s Paradise



Odds ‘n Sods:

Grandpappy (a past prize winner in our writing contest) has posted a timely new article on low-cost ammunition at his site.

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Not surprisingly, this news story comes from Madison, one of Wisconsin’s most liberal meccas: Wisconsin City Cracks Down On Fake Guns. “Madison police are starting to tell children as early as first grade that the fake guns are dangerous and put both the holder and officers in dangerous positions.”

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JHB flagged this: Obama Now Wants Your Pocket Knife. Let’s nip this in the bud. Germany now has a ban on “ein hand messers“. If we aren’t vigilant, we could be next.

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From KAF: Can We Count on Native Bees to Replace Honeybees?



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Today, prayer is still a powerful force in America, and our faith in God is a mighty source of strength. Our Pledge of Allegiance states that we are ‘one nation under God,’ and our currency bears the motto, ‘In God we Trust.’ The morality and values such faith implies are deeply embedded in our national character. Our country embraces those principles by design, and we abandon them at our peril.” – President Ronald Wilson Reagan



Notes from JWR:

Please keep The Memsahib in your prayers. Her health and strength are failing, but her faith in Christ is strong.

Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day OnPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



The Anti-Bug Out Bag, by Jason C.

Have you heard of a Bug out bag (BOB)? If you have read even a few articles on urban survival then you have heard of this mysterious thing. Loosely defined, it is a bag packed with supplies and equipment for a few days to a week. It is intended to be something handy to grab, if you have to get out of where you are quickly. The thousands of items that could possibly be packed in a BOB are often a source of great debate among people building, packing, and storing their own bag.

But what about the times when you won’t need to evacuate your residence, home, business, or other location? Then you will need what I humorously term an Anti-Bug Out Bag (ABOB.) If, like me, you work from home or are not traveling out of town, you are rarely more than a few miles from where you spend most of your time, your home. It is often overlooked that you will more than likely be at your home, or close to it, should something happen. Some events like bad weather you may even have a few days notice of the threat.

So let’s start with the big picture of maintaining your gear.

When planning your Anti-Bug Out Bag (ABOB), you are only limited by your storage space and budget. However, for the average person, a big closet, basement corner, or wall of the garage should do fine. After deciding the location, it is time to identify the contents. I will not even begin to list individual items, but will attempt to address the logical process of determining what is most important for you.

The very first consideration of any item is: how many uses does it have? One? Two? Each and every item should be able to serve at least three uses. And yes, I do realize there are a few items that may be very specific, but those rare items will be obvious if you try to find other uses as you evaluate each piece of gear.

An example would be a basic tool kit. Instead of a regular hammer, what about a dry wall hammer with a hammer head and hatchet back. This type of hammer also has a nail-pulling notch under the blade of the hatchet. This adds an extra purpose and increases its value and usefulness. Another great example is types of rope. We all know the value of heavy rope, para-cord, twine, and even bungee cords. But you can add 1″ tube webbing to your supply and it can serve many more needs. Straps for packs, slings for tools and weapons, and even belts for your clothes. The heavier type designed for rock climbing and mountaineering is fairly inexpensive and is strong enough to pull a car out of a ditch. Try that with nylon rope from Wal-Mart!

The important part is to add the items that will help you in as many ways as possible to reduce waste and increase efficiency in your work.

The next major consideration is quality and durability.

With today’s wasteful use of resources we have all become conditioned to throwing things away and replacing them when they break again. This has the bad effect of putting a lot of junk equipment to be on the market. I do caution you against just using price as an indicator of quality. We all have things we paid almost nothing for that will outlast the most expensive piece of equipment.

The fact that many of these items simply are not made to withstand daily use in a rugged environment will be a disaster when you need them to work the most. Make sure you get the best you can afford. Learn to take care of them, and be able to repair them if needed.

For an example of this, take the spade shovel in my garage. I saw it on sale at a bargain store for under $10 dollars. It has a solid wood handle, with strong rivets to hold it all together. I have had it for almost seven years and put some hard use on in my landscaping days. I had another one that was bought as extra equipment for one of my crews at a name-brand hardware store for over $30. Within a month the cheap aluminum rivets twisted out and the handle came out. After repairing it with large stainless steel bolts, a weld came apart on the handle assembly. This shovel just couldn’t take the abuse we were putting on it. But the less expensive one thrived on the rough use. So evaluate each piece in your ABOB based on quality and craftsmanship.

After filtering your selected items throughout the first two steps it is on to the third. How many of these do I need? Everything has it’s limit of usefulness. And everything can wear out and break no matter how good the quality. So you must determine how many of each item you need. Do you need two pry bars? Probably not, because other items can be used if needed. Do you need two pick axes? If you plan on doing a lot of farming with no tractor, then you might. How about an extra sewing kit to repair clothes and packs? Most assuredly.
So determining the items life span in a survival environment is critical to deciding how many to have as back up.

Of course I haven’t discussed weapons yet, but this is one of the most crucial things to evaluate with the above rules. My preference has always been the 12-gauge shotgun. And as a hunter and outdoorsman I own enough guns to make my wife roll her eyes every time I open the safe. But when I applied this to my own supply, I realized that in a survival situation I need to look for which ones would I be most reliable. The autoloaders? Great on the dove fields but can be prone to jamming on occasion.

I choose the pump shotgun as reliable and simple. But I had to add another because I wanted two of them in case one is damaged, I always have a backup. It is the same model so that there are spare parts. Also I decided to go one more step and add a single-shot 12-gauge break action. So now I feel I will have one that works.

This also includes ammo. How many of each caliber you need is your choice, but I would be thinking in the thousands, not the hundreds. So whether you are looking at just one extra box or dozens, you have to decide before you need them, because after you realize you needed them, it will just be too late.

These three rules are designed as guidelines to help you prepare your supplies. If you apply each one to every selection you make you will most likely have an edge if and when it is time to use your ABOB. The most important part of any item is knowing how to use it. So as you add equipment, take the time to learn to use it. Just that simple step can help you increase your odds of survival in difficult times.



Letter Re: Walking Tractors and Similar Powered Farming Implements

James
I have gardened a lot. The topic of tractors is one that you need to think about before you purchase one. If you have one acre to plow a Ford 8 or 9n is to big to utilize in fact I would not think about a riding tractor unless the plot size reaches three acres or more. There are tractors that will plow that you walk behind and then utilize a tiller.

SurvivalBlog reader LRM is right in the fact that a tiller can be hard to use if you do not prepare the ground before you crank the tiller up. Before you plant you will need to break the ground with a fork to loosen up the ground, then till, irrigate the ground. Then you will either spread out fertilizer either commercial or compost you have manufactured. Then you till a second time mix in the fertilizer or compost,now you are ready to plant. Once you have worked a garden plot the ground gets easer to till and not as much work is needed to put in a garden.

The other factor you need to think about is if you are not doing it now it will be much harder to do once TSHTF. The learning curve is very steep. Get to gardening now, learn all you can. Store seeds in the refrigerator. Start a compost pile. Raise chickens. Their manure makes great compost, combine chicken manure with lawn clippings and compost for 14 days then turn the pile then compost another 14 days and turn the pile and about 1 week you are ready to use. [JWR Adds: Chicken manure just by itself is too “hot’ for use as fertilizer, in most cases.] Keep a compost pile going and you’ll have an endless supply of fertilizer.

What about container gardening they work great for Tomatoes and Potatoes and there are raised beds. Raised beds will produce more per square foot than rows. A two- acre raised bed garden will produce more than a three-acre row garden.

There is a lot more to gardening than plowing with a tractor. – Curtis M.





Economics and Investing:

The editor of the Mountain Steps Blog recently presented an interesting timeline of the Weimar Republic Hyperinflation.

“The Frontman” sent us a link to an interesting article about the coinage shortage in Argentina. Americans take note: This could happen here, too!

Currie sent us this from The Times: Swedish banks fear writedowns; Financial turmoil in the Baltics is rocking Sweden’s banks, after Latvia’s failure to raise money in a bond auction. Currie’s comment: “Another domino tumbles…”

Items from The Economatrix:s

Temporary Work Masks Joblesseness Unemployment hits “9.4%”

GM to Sell Saturn Brand to Roger Penske Chain


Stocks Waver After Better-Than-Expected Job Data

Bonner: You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!

Rogers: Bear Market Rally?

Dollar’s Wounds Reopen

Dollar’s Fate Written In History


The Largest US Bankruptcies


GM Bankruptcy May Say “No Reason To Stay” to Detroit Residents


Chrysler Dealership Has Five Days to Sell Entire Inventory
Chrysler doesn’t have to buy unsold cars, can’t be sold without franchise

Battle #1: Taxing Health Benefits

States Propose $24 Billion in Tax Hikes

Iraqi Kurds Begin Exporting Oil





Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The economics of disaster commence when the holders of money wealth revolt. It is as simple as that. The government has little or nothing to say or do about it…They do not fly flags or demonstrate in the streets to express their revolt; they simply get rid of their money…The duller the holders of money wealth are, the longer the government can go on storing up inflation but, by the same token, the more cataclysmic must the eventual dam burst be. The Germans [of the early 1920s] were among the dullest and most disciplined of all holders of money wealth, and this alone permitted the government to build up so huge a pool of unrealized inflation before the burst." – Jens O. Parsson, Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations



Note from JWR:

Last day! Safecastle’s 25% Off Mountain House storage food sale ends at midnight, eastern time (June 5th.). Safecastle Royal members will also get a free copy of the novel One Second After by William R. Forstchen if they purchase four or more cases of Mountain House foods.



Two Letters Re: Walking Tractors and Similar Powered Farming Implements

Hi;
The ongoing discussion about tractors is interesting. I was recently able to purchase a fully restored 1952 Ford 8N for $3,500. The tires, front end bushings, everything is new, and the motor is rebuilt. This is a deal of a lifetime to be sure. But, there are plenty of other good deals out there, this is the time to look. Check with farmers to see if they have an extra tractor to sell. Many farms own multiple tractors and if they need money you might get lucky. And if you get real lucky you might find an old one restored. The farmer is more likely to want to keep the bigger newer air conditioned tractor over the smaller old one.

It is pointless to debate which tractor is best. But allow me to point out a few things that I have learned about these Ford 8Ns. Any part you could want is available online. Many parts are in stock at Tractor Supply and similar farm stores. I have never used a tractor before, and I’m not a good mechanic. But this is such a simple set-up that it is very easy to learn the mechanics. The manuals are available online or stocked at Tractor Supply. There is nothing to them, a huge advantage over a modern computerized tractor that will be fried by EMP. And there are countless 8N and 9N tractors still being used, and a potential future source of parts. Common items have a big advantage.

In the past we have worked a garden by hand. We added a hand plow and then a big rototiller. But we were able to increase the speed of tilling with this tractor beyond measure. It is not very noisy, and certainly quieter than a lawnmower or rototiller. In less than a day you can easily plow and disk a small field. And we used very little gas the entire day, never having to refill the small tank. We used 3-4 gallons of gas to put in a massive garden. We plowed up ground that was last plowed over 50 years ago, and it was fast and easy. With the rototiller it would have taken days, more fuel, more exposure outside. We hope to grow more food than we can eat, preserve and root cellar and still have plenty left to donate to others.

A person can get into a decent used tractor with used plows and other implements for a few thousand dollars. Compare that to some of the other things people buy and it’s a cheap investment. If you don’t overspend, they will likely keep their value. Stock up on fluids and basic spare parts in advance. For a few hundred dollars you can fill your shelves with any fluids and common parts that could be needed. 5 ounces of gold will get you set up. Maybe less. You can plow for neighbors in exchange for a few loads of firewood, or something else you can use. You will have a machine that can help you and your neighbors out and keep everyone from being hungry.

Get all non-hybrid seeds and learn to save them and you never need to buy seeds more than once. Extra seeds are excellent barter items. Learn what plants can cross breed and avoid this. You can grow a lot of corn to grind for animal feed. If you save your own seed to grow this, your animal feed will be almost free.
And for those of us that aren’t getting any younger, sitting on a tractor all day compared to running a rototiller, well, there is no comparison. – Don in Ohio

 

Dear Mr. Rawles,
As a landscape contractor and private gardener who during the last several decades has worked on three continents and used more types of equipment than I’d like to think of, I feel qualified to stick in my 2 cents regarding the proper equipment to use on small holdings.

Landscape contractors cannot afford to waste time of money on unreliable or unsuitable equipment so we chose with care. We do any type of work you can think of that’s exterior to a home, commercial building, park or highway. While our work is mostly decorative, it is the same type that would be necessary in a post apocalypse world. Planting bed prep, irrigation, retaining walls, etc.

A few lessons I’ve learned:
The equipment used for a particular job must maximize power, reliability and agility into one unit. In my opinion, most walk behind tillers, trenchers or tractors lack both power and surprisingly, agility. You will wear yourself out doing the work the machine is supposed to be doing and you may injure yourself in the process. Holding onto one of these things is like holding onto a bucking bull. A twisted ankle, back or badly pulled muscle means a few days off work in this world. During the bad times it means a lot more. Personally I hate em.
While 5-10 acres is mentioned as the size of a survival garden, the reality is more in the range of 1 acre. 1 acre is a lot of ground to prepare, plant, water, weed and (hopefully) harvest. A heavy duty real tine tiller could probably do a decent job if the ground had previously been cultivated but a 20 horsepower (h.p.) or so tractor would do it in a fraction of the time and do a better job leaving time for other things. Front tine tillers are toys suitable for backyard kitchen gardens. The same goes for ATVs and their “farm” implements. Why ruin a perfectly good ATV by dragging a plow at 1 mph? You wouldn’t hook up your SUV to a plow would you? Well at least I wouldn’t.
So I’m recommending you find yourself a good 4 wheel drive hydrostatic drive medium size tractor.

These tractors do have a tendency to roll over,but they have roll bars and if your smart enough to wear the provided seat belt, you’ll be okay. Anyway, all the gardens I’ve seen are dead flat so if you run one along the side of a hill you’re not gardening but doing what I do. If you are on a slope, go up and down not sideways, keep your front loader bucket low and don’t do anything rash. It isn’t much of an issue.

Four wheel drive is obvious. They work great anywhere there is loose dirt sand, mud or snow. They also save wear and tear on the tires (less tire slip) and less drive train stress. I used one to plow my Colorado mountain driveway which was both long and steep and frequently had several feet of snow in it. If you do get stuck the front bucket will work you out.

Hydrostatic drive means the engine runs a variable pump which drives the hydraulic system that does all the work. It allows you to set the engine speed for power and vary your speed, both forward and reverse, by pressing your foot on a floor mounted rocker arm. No shifting or clutch involved. In my work that means we can do 300% more than if we used the older style tractors. These pumps never seemed to wear out although we did have one failure on a new tractor. Unless you just plan on plowing the back 40, it’s the only way to go.
The engines were 18 h.p. on up and all were diesel. We never had a problem, ever. A 18 h.p. .tractor will work hard all day on 5 gal or less of fuel. Anything under 18 h.p. is a toy.

The rear implement on each was usually a 5′ tiller. With it we could do most anything. Need to cut some hard rocky ground? Just back till. The rocks would “hook out” (be careful) and we’d be left with 8″ of soft rock free soil. When we needed to amend the soil, which was always, we’d spread a few inches of peat/manure with the front bucket, then run the tiller over it a couple of times. Back dragging the bucket would firm it back up for planting. What took one guy 3 hours would have taken four guys all day to do with a rear tine tiller and wheelbarrows and they would have done a poorer job of it. If a backhoe wasn’t available, we would use the tiller/bucket to dig holes in hard ground. The front bucket makes a great dirt mover, snow plow or firewood carrier or anything else you could fit in it. You can use it to hoist the tractor into a trailer or pick the front end up to change a tire (with a block under the axle pivot point of course.

In my experience light tractors make poor backhoe platforms and semi-okay trenchers with the proper attachment on the 3 point.
Now here’s the real key. The manufacturer. I’ve used all of them. Most are not up to task and are a waste of money. I’ve broken more than one in half. Several others just died or were put out of their misery. Sadly, the “American “made” ones never were any good. A few Asian manufactures weren’t any better (Yanmar was one that broke in two). In fact the only brand I ever buy now is Kubota. They are rock solid and the only one to buy (and no I don’t have anything to do with them except give them money on occasion.) I’m also partial to MF40s but they’re somewhat large for the work we’re talking about.

Cost: Well… they’re not free, but they do enough work that every neighbor around will want something from it and that’s not a bad thing, now or during the bad days. Charge about $75 an hour and a cold one. Kind Regards, – LRM (from Perth, Australia)

JWR Replies: Your comments add credence to my assertion that a large family garden plot (at least one acre), makes the most sense for a self-sufficient garden. Not only will you have room for more crops, but you will also have the room needed to maneuver a tractor. One important note: When fencing your garden, plan ahead: You’ll need at least one large gate for tractor ingress/egress. Even if you don’t own a tractor, chances are that you can borrow or rent one, especially for the first time that you turn the soil. Without a tractor, that first turning is often a monumental effort.



Mexican Flu Update:

WHO: Swine Flu Alert Closer to Pandemic 64 countries, 18,965 cases, 117 deaths (mostly US & Mexico) “‘We still are waiting for evidence of really widespread community activity in these countries, and so it’s fair to say that they are in transition and are not quite there yet, which is why we are not in phase 6 yet,’ Fukuda said.”

NYC Reports Two New Deaths From Swine Flu
Both aged 25-64, 553 total cases, 341 hospitalizations

Swine Flu In All 50 States
More than 10,000 US residents confirmed infected. Confirmed cases represent about 1 in 20 of actual cases. (JWR Adds: I guess its a little to late to pull a “Madagascar.”)



Economics and Investing:

The welfare state, firmly entrenched: Benefit spending soars to new high (1 in 6 dollars of income come from governments checks. Let’s not forget: Every dollar that is “given”, must first be “taken” from someone.) Thanks to G.H. for the link.

Currie sent us this: Latvian debt crisis shakes Eastern Europe. When sovereign debt markets disintegrate, you can expect governments to topple. And it won’t just be pipsqueak nation states like Iceland and Latvia that are at risk.

From reader C.S.: Medical bills underlie 60 percent of U.S. bankruptcies: study

Julian Robertson’s Steepener Swap Play (Shorting US Treasuries) When Julian talks, people listen. And now, he is clearly saying “mass inflation ahead.” (A hat tip to GG for the link.)
Also from GG comes this article at Barron’s: V-Shaped Recovery Outlook is in Vain The bulk of the economy’s credit problems are still to come

Items from The Economatrix:

Handwritten Notes Show Fed Oversight Bill Neutered On Senate Floor (No surprise)

Banks Run the Country

Biden Says Some Waste Inevitable Part of Stimulus Program

Paul Craig Roberts: as The Dollar Falls Off The Cliff

US Retailers Report May Sales Decline

Canada Mint Can’t Account For Missing Gold

Study: US Dollar “Seriously Overvalued”

US Private Sector Axes 532,000 Jobs in May

German Debts Set To “Blow Like A Grenade” “An internal memo by the regulator’s office suggested that likely write-offs may reach €816 billion, twice the entire reserves of the country’s financial institutions.”

Holes in the China Recovery Story “According to the CBRC (via Dow Jones), “the country’s economy faces growing downward pressure as the global financial crisis has yet to run its course.” The regulator added that “the banking industry faces ‘serious’ credit and market risks as the domestic economy encounters its ‘most difficult year in the new century.'”

Financial, Energy Stocks Pull Market Higher (Thursday)



Odds ‘n Sods:

We were thrilled to attend Maker Faire, in San Mateo, California, last weekend. It is an amazingly educational and inspirational gathering, and I highly recommend it, if you ever have the opportunity. (Maker Faire events are also held in Newcastle, England and in Austin, Texas.) These annual events, sponsored by Makezine, bring together an eclectic and often wacky group of creative geniuses. Among the huge roster of exhibitors, I saw lots of practical displays and demonstrations there that have applicability to preparedness–including steam engines, gasifier experimenter kits (GEKs), umpteen human-powered machines (including a way-cool pedal-powered rail car, made with box beam construction), PV panels in profusion, and three different groups of ham radio wizards. Even those famous guys in lab jackets that create Diet Coke fountains with Mentos were there, and they put on a live demonstration before a cheering crowd. (Two of my kids were up front, getting soaked.) To get a taste of what the event is like, see this video from the 2008 Maker Faire.

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Administration to Reveal Plans For Katrina Housing Transition. It’s been 4-1/2 years! And they are now just getting a “plan”?

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Don’t miss these useful rifle marksmanship training films, circa 1943. These public domain films were posted courtesy of the RWVA.

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From reader WW: Government to sell FEMA trailers to Hurricane Katrina victims for $1 or $5