Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at some economics and investing predictions for 2024.

Precious Metals:

The Silver Surge: Anticipating Big Moves in 2024 and 2025.

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Gold Is Going To Reach New ALL Time Highs! Will Silver Follow?

Economy & Finance:

From the biased Biden boosters at Fitch: World Growth to Fall Sharply in 2024 but US Recession Avoided.

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From The Motley Fool: This Widely Followed Metric Is Flirting With Danger. Does It Mean a Stock Market Crash Is Imminent in 2024?  An excerpt:

“Q1 2023-current: The S&P 500 Shiller P/E sat above 32 at the closing bell on Dec. 20.

All five previous instances with a Shiller P/E ratio north of 30 have eventually (keyword!) resulted in the S&P 500 losing at least 20% of its value, which is traditionally the line-in-the-sand definition for a bear market.”

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J.P. Morgan: 2024 economic outlook: 10 considerations for the US economy.

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USN&WR: Will the Stock Market Crash in 2024? 7 Risk Factors.

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At Zero Hedge: IRS Rakes In Record $4.9 Trillion In Taxes From Americans Amid Enforcement Crackdown.

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Fortune: 2024 economy and stock market predictions: Expect subpar returns in a new ‘age of austerity’ says a top analyst at Research Affiliates.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — December 31, 2023

December 31, 1862, the U.S.S. Monitor sank, in a storm off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Just nine months earlier, the ship had been part of a revolution in naval warfare when the ironclad dueled to a standstill with the C.S.S. Virginia (Merrimack) off Hampton Roads, Virginia, in one of the most famous naval battles in American history—the first time two ironclads faced each other in a naval engagement.

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I just heard that sci-fi novelist David Drake passed away. Drake was best known as the author of the 10-book Hammer’s Slammers series. He will be greatly missed.

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Today’s feature article was written by SurvivalBlog’s Senior Editor, James Wesley, Rawles (JWR).

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We are seeking entries for Round 110 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $850,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 110 ends on January 31st, 2024, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Why We Should Dread a Second Civil War

Introductory Note: In a SurvivalBlog essay that I wrote back in January, 2019, I warned that there were signs that a Second Civil War might be brewing. I’d like to update and expand on that theme, in this essay.

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The recent release of the first trailer for the scheduled April 2024 release of the A24 Productions movie titled Civil War has prompted considerable conjecture. The film reportedly had a $75 million budget. Commentator Tim Pool posted his thoughts on it, and then followed up with a more in-depth panel discussion, and then another. Dozens of others have also chimed in, so YouTube is now replete with “Civil War Trailer Reaction” videos, from both right-wingers and left-wingers. Many conservatives are scratching their heads, doubting how Texas and California could ever team up, in a future civil war. It is too early to tell, but I suspect that the 2024 Civil War movie will be a liberal propaganda piece. The timing of its release right in the middle of the 2024 presidential primaries and caucuses makes it immediately suspect.

Speaking of elections, the times we are living in are definitely unusual. In a recent 4-3 decision, the Colorado Supreme Court stretched the definition of Section 3 the 14th Amendment to deny a place on the ballot for Donald Trump. Without due process. Without combatant status or a conviction. And without the opportunity to face his accusers. That decision was stayed pending a Supreme Court  appeal on Friday. But now Maine is attempting to do the same thing… This does not bode well.

If people feel genuinely disenfranchised, then they tend to start to feel combative. This has happened many times, all over the world. Ditto for times when people feel singled out for repression, or over-taxed, or censored, or under-represented. The recent steamroller of Wokeness has justifiably made a lot of people angry. If situations like these are forced on a populace for an extended time, then civil wars or guerilla wars often result.

Dread and Foreboding

I must emphasize that I absolutely dread the prospect of a Second Civil War. I recently read about some liberals who are itching to see a Second Civil War. Let me remind folks of some facts about America’s last little Tiff of Unpleasantness:

  • US Population in the 1860 Census:  31,443,321.
  • Estimated number of combatants killed 1861-1865:  618,200, with 360,200 Union deaths and 258,000 Confederate deaths. Those figures do not include civilian deaths.
  • US Population in the 2020 Census: 331,464,948. (A more than 10x increase.)
  • The projected proportional number of deaths in a Second Civil War: About 6.3 million.

Continue reading“Why We Should Dread a Second Civil War”

December 2023 in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover gold’s performance and the factors that affected gold prices.

What Did Gold Do in December?

The big news for December was gold, setting two new record highs to make 2023 the best year for gold since 2020. The sharp rally that began in late November continued into December, setting new record intra-day and closing highs for gold on December 1st. February gold futures hit a new intra-day high of $2,095.70, closing at $2,089.70. Spot gold posted a new all-time intra-day high of $2,076.10 before closing at $2,071.00.

Things changed in a flash the next Monday. Spot gold gained another astounding $80 to $2,149 before noon. February gold mirrored this trajectory, advancing another $60 to $2,152, both substantially higher than Friday’s record close.

Suddenly, gold prices reversed sharply, forming a blow-off top. Prices had gone “too far, too fast.” Spot gold had gained $136 over the previous week by noon on the 4th, and futures had gained $140.

When the dollar spiked on safe-haven demand over the escalation of the Israeli-Hamas war, it was enough to snap the speculative sentiment driving gold prices. Gold’s exuberant rally had priced it out of being a safe haven compared to a weakened dollar.

Everyone stampeded to the exits to lock in the massive profits gained over the previous few days. By 2 pm, both spot gold and futures had lost $45. Spot gold closed $80 lower than the day’s new record intra-day high, and futures had lost $60 from its own high.

Gold futures lost $96 over seven sessions. Spot gold lost $92. The good news was that the pain was over, thanks to the Fed. The December FOMC policy meeting ended on the 13th, giving the markets a far better Christmas present than they could have expected. The “dot plot” of anonymous rate forecasts by Fed leaders showed that they expected three rate cuts next year, and FOUR in 2025.

All the markets went nuts, gold included. Spot gold jumped $47.70 to $2,027.20. Gold futures, which had closed for the day just prior to the Fed statement, caught up the next day, notching a gain of $47.60 to $2,044. Aside from three minor adjustments, the rally to the end of the year was on.

The cherry on top of the extraordinary gains for December was another set of all-time highs on the 27th. February gold futures settled at $2,093.10, and spot gold closed at $2077.40.Continue reading“December 2023 in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran”

JWR’s Meme Of The Week:

The latest meme created by JWR:

Meme Text:

My Newsome Year’s Resolution:

Never Trust a Politician Who Cannot Define What a Woman Is, or Who Claims That Men Can Have Babies


News Links:

Notes From JWR: Do you have a meme idea? Just e-mail me the concept, and I’ll try to assemble it. And if it is posted then I’ll give you credit. Thanks!

Permission to repost memes that I’ve created is granted, provided that credit to SurvivalBlog.com is included.

The Editors’ Quote of the Day: 

“Now concerning spiritual gifts, brethren, I would not have you ignorant.

Ye know that ye were Gentiles, carried away unto these dumb idols, even as ye were led.

Wherefore I give you to understand, that no man speaking by the Spirit of God calleth Jesus accursed: and that no man can say that Jesus is the Lord, but by the Holy Ghost.

Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.

And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.

And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh all in all.

But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.

For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word of knowledge by the same Spirit;

To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by the same Spirit;

To another the working of miracles; to another prophecy; to another discerning of spirits; to another divers kinds of tongues; to another the interpretation of tongues:

But all these worketh that one and the selfsame Spirit, dividing to every man severally as he will.

For as the body is one, and hath many members, and all the members of that one body, being many, are one body: so also is Christ.

For by one Spirit are we all baptized into one body, whether we be Jews or Gentiles, whether we be bond or free; and have been all made to drink into one Spirit.” – 1 Corinthians 12:1-13 (KJV) 

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — December 30, 2023

On December 30, 1905, former Governor Frank Steunenberg (pictured) was assassinated with a dynamite bomb near his home in Caldwell, Idaho. According to Infogalactic:  “He was assassinated in 1905 by one-time union member Harry Orchard, who was also a paid informant for the Cripple Creek Mine Owners’ Association. Orchard attempted to implicate leaders of the radical Western Federation of Miners in the assassination. The labor leaders were found not guilty in two trials, but Orchard spent the rest of his life in prison.”

On December 30, 1853, the U.S. acquired nearly 30,000 square miles (78,000 square km) of additional northern Mexican territory with the signing of the Gadsden Purchase.

And on December 30, 1924, astronomer Edwin Hubble formally announced the existence of other galactic systems at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 110 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  5. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  2. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC.
  4. Montana Survival Seed is providing a $225 gift code for any items on its website, including organic non-GMO seeds, fossils, 1812-1964 US silver, jewelry, botany books, and Montana beeswax.
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. A Berkey Light water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $305 value),
  2. A $300 gift certificate from Good2Goco.com, good for any of their products: Home freeze dryers, pressure canners, Country Living grain mills, Emergency Essentials foods, and much more.
  3. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  4. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $850,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 110 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Using the Past to Prepare for the Future – Part 2, by 3AD Scout

(Continued from Part 1. This concludes the article.)

Planting

A good old-fashioned seed broadcaster maybe a good device to put back as well. The good news is they still manufacture these. I use mine in the mid-Spring to seed my hay field. I use a technique an old timer passed down to me. The method requires no tilling of the dirt. Just broadcast the seed right before it rains. When it rains, the seed will be transported into the “duff” or layer of decaying materials, where it should spout. I did this and had decent results. Another variation of this method was to broadcast the seed on a very dewy morning. Many of us may garden now but when commercial food production is non-existent, our gardening will need to expand to ensure we have food to last until the next harvest. A wheeled seeder will make quick work of planting many seeds and the saved time can be used for other important tasks. I normally plant my direct sow seeds individually by hand but post-TEOTWAWKI I will definitely be using the wheeled planter.Continue reading“Using the Past to Prepare for the Future – Part 2, by 3AD Scout”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make both long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug-out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in the Odds ‘n Sods Column or in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

This week I came down with a head cold, so I’ve had to put some beef butcherting plans on hold.  Hopefully, next week we will slaughter and butcher a heifer that was too tightly bred. (Our bull was both her father and grandfather.) We now have a replacement bull, to avoid any inbreeding. My eldest son plans to visit for a couple of days in just over a week to help me with butchering a steer. That will be an even bigger project. But our chest freezers will be full. We are grateful for God’s providence! For the short term, I will be freezing the green hides. Lily plans to tan them, this coming April or May.

I wrapped up writing my posts for the rest of 2023. So our Managing Editor can now get started in creating the new edition of the SurvivalBlog Archive. This edition will have so much bonus content that we had to switch to using 32 Gigabyte USB sticks!  Those waterproof sticks should be orderable by around January 20th.

Now, Lily’s report…

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

 “And the angel of God spake unto me in a dream, saying, Jacob: And I said, Here am I.

And he said, Lift up now thine eyes, and see, all the rams which leap upon the cattle are ringstraked, speckled, and grisled: for I have seen all that Laban doeth unto thee.

I am the God of Bethel, where thou anointedst the pillar, and where thou vowedst a vow unto me: now arise, get thee out from this land, and return unto the land of thy kindred.

And Rachel and Leah answered and said unto him, Is there yet any portion or inheritance for us in our father’s house?

Are we not counted of him strangers? for he hath sold us, and hath quite devoured also our money.

For all the riches which God hath taken from our father, that is ours, and our children’s: now then, whatsoever God hath said unto thee, do.

Then Jacob rose up, and set his sons and his wives upon camels;

And he carried away all his cattle, and all his goods which he had gotten, the cattle of his getting, which he had gotten in Padanaram, for to go to Isaac his father in the land of Canaan.” Genesis 31: 11-18 (KJV) 

Preparedness Notes for Friday — December 29, 2023

On December 29, 1845, Texas was admitted as the 28th state of the Union.

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Today is the birthday of actor Jude Law (born 1972.) You may remember him from Enemy at The Gates and Sky Captain.

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Natchez Shooters Supplies (one of our affiliate advertisers) is running a special promotion today and tomorrow:  Take An Additional 10% Off ALL Clearance-Listed Items When You Spend $99.99+  (This offer ends at 11:59pm EST on 12/30/2023.)  To get the additional 10% off, use Promo Code P231229

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 110 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  5. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  2. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC.
  4. Montana Survival Seed is providing a $225 gift code for any items on its website, including organic non-GMO seeds, fossils, 1812-1964 US silver, jewelry, botany books, and Montana beeswax.
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. A Berkey Light water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $305 value),
  2. A $300 gift certificate from Good2Goco.com, good for any of their products: Home freeze dryers, pressure canners, Country Living grain mills, Emergency Essentials foods, and much more.
  3. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  4. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $850,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 110 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Using the Past to Prepare for the Future – Part 1, by 3AD Scout

It does not take much imagination to realize that our society will come crashing down without the cheap, steady flow of electricity. The world’s electric grids are the lifeblood of our modern lifestyle. Many predictions believe that if the electrical grid was shut down, by something like an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) or a very strong Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), then civilization would be thrown back into the 1800s. Some predictions even think the 1700s or even further back. Regardless of what time period we are all transported back to, we are going to have to find ways to replace all the modern conveniences, instantly made useless, that we currently depend upon for our daily life and survival.

As a society, we do not realize how good we have it. Americans and others enjoy several hours of “free time” compared to those living in the 1700s and 1800s. All that “free time” will evaporate along with the electricity. Many of us stock months or years of food and other supplies to hopefully survive long enough for society to get back on its feet, that is for the power to be restored.  Society getting back on its feet will take people with the knowledge, skills, and the tenacity that spurred the Industrial Revolution. However, unlike our ancestors, our generation will have some disadvantages. These disadvantages are nothing that cannot be overcome with a little foresight and preparation.Continue reading“Using the Past to Prepare for the Future – Part 1, by 3AD Scout”

The Financial Disaster No One Is Talking About, by Brandon Smith

Editor’s Introductory Note:  Today, in place of my usual Economics & Investing column, with permission I am reposting this article that was first published by the Birch Gold Group. Brandon Smith is the Editor of Alt-Market.us. He is an astute observer of the world’s political and economic machinations. – JWR

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Several years ago I predicted that the U.S. would ultimately be confronted with the debilitating economic conundrum of stagflation, something which the nation had not seen since the 1970s. I suggested that stagflation would become a household word again and that the majority of American concerns would revolve around rising prices coupled with stagnant wages and falling production.

In 2018 in my article Stagflationary Crisis: U.S.A.’s Ongoing Collapse, Understanding the Cause, I noted:

Years ago there was a rather idiotic battle between financial analysts over what the end result of the Fed’s massive stimulus measures would be. One side argued that deflation would be the outcome and that no amount of Fed printing would overtake the vast black hole of debt conjured by the derivatives implosion. The other side argued that the Fed would continue to print perpetually, resorting to QE4 or possibly “QE infinity” and negative interest rates as a means to stave off a market crash for decades (like Japan) while at the same time initiating a Weimar-style inflationary bonanza.

Both sides were wrong because they refused to acknowledge the third option – stagflation.

Continue reading“The Financial Disaster No One Is Talking About, by Brandon Smith”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Peace and friendship with all mankind is our wisest policy, and I wish we may be permitted to pursue it.” – Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Charles William Frederick Dumas, May 6, 1786