Preparedness Notes for Friday — November 4, 2022

November 4th is the birthday of Medal of Honor recipient John Basilone. He was born in 1916 in Buffalo, New York. His amazing heroism was highlighted in the television miniseries The Pacific.

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Ready Made Resources — our first and most loyal advertiser — now has a special sale price on White Phosphor PVS-14 Elbit XLSH Tube Gen 3 Autogated Night Vision Monoculars. They are being offered as a complete kit, with a mil-spec US-made tube. They have these in stock for immediate shipment. Note that this is a limited-time offer, so get your order in soon.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 103 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Mitigating the Drone/RDF Threat – Part 1, by Tunnel Rabbit

Introduction

This is an extension to my recent SurvivaBlog article titled Advanced Field Telephone Techniques, yet it examines and details the topic in the context of a specific threat. It often pays to reiterate and reinforce. While partly an intellectual pursuit, this discussion is grounded in decades of real world experience, sans actual battlefield experience, or military training. With this disclaimer stated, we can rest assured because the method of remotely operating transceivers via field phones was once SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) for U.S. military forces. It is well-proven on the battlefield as method of avoiding RDF, and subsequent direct attack by enemy forces.

It is also a method that can be used as a substitute for a radio repeater. However, in this modern age, we should be aware that the best that we can attempt is mitigation, and should not expect that we can totally avoid the threat. At any time that there is RF generated by any device to include, for example, the charge controller of our PV array, there exists RF (Radio Frequency) energy that could be detected. Total RF silence at a base station should be in effect for best results. I, therefore, use relatively RF-quiet charge controllers, the Morningstar TS-45/60 with the PWM switched off to lower my RF footprint. Typically, many MPPT-type charge controllers are relatively RF noisy.

JWR Adds:  Even the local oscillator within a radio receiver produces detectable RF energy  — but minuscule, compared to what you’d produce in operating a transmitter.

Understanding the Threat

Drone technology is here to stay and drones will increasingly become problems in many ways. They can be used to gather intelligence visually, day and at night. Thermal imaging can be used both during the day and at night. And now affordable drones have Radio Direction Finding (RDF) capabilities. Drones are increasingly used for intelligence gathering, and kinetic (offensive) measures. An ability to use doppler RDF technology, allows drones to locate a potential target. Learning how to deal with such a growing threat will be an ongoing process. As technology advances, we can adopt low-tech practices that can help us conduct a more secure communications plan. To better understand the threat and the measures proposed, we need to understand how drones are used in RDF operations. There is an excellent video on how RDF using drones works. Please first view this instructional video from S2 Underground, and then come back to this article:

Radio Direction Finding: AKA How “They” Can Find You

A drone does not necessarily need to have RDF capability to be a threat. Rudimentary direction-finding methods involving a yagi or a moxon antenna, and a handheld receiver with a strength meter, or simply a good ear, and a map of the area, can give the user a rough bearing as to where he should fly his drone to pinpoint a retreat location visually. If the location has enough electrical power to run a radio, then it is of interest as it likely has other desirable or essential supplies to attract looters.

Remote Transceiver Operation Using Field Phones

We begin with the most effective method that is available, one that may work for most people without much background in the subject. Field phones, and the devices mentioned, are relatively simple devices, devices so simple, that as a child, I was ‘messing with this stuff’. If I can, then you can. I would encourage anyone with any understanding of electrical circuits to use these methods. The terms mentioned in this article might be new and strange to the reader. But do not be discouraged, since this stuff is not rocket science. Anyone who can connect two wires to a field phone could be in business. And that is the beauty and strength of field phones, rugged simplicity that is sustainable low technology that can defeat the highest tech, and cutting edge of surveillance means and methods. It is a 25-cent solution to a million-dollar problem.Continue reading“Mitigating the Drone/RDF Threat – Part 1, by Tunnel Rabbit”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at how collectibles and other tangibles fare in times of inflation. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Hedge funds will remain bearish on gold price until the Fed slows its pace of tightening.

o  o  o

Could a Red Wave Cool Off the Retail Bullion Market?

Economy & Finance:

Just as predicted: Fed announces third consecutive 75-basis point rate hike.

o  o  o

Bram Berkowitz: Will the Fed Pivot This Week?

o  o  o

Video: “What’s Coming Is Worse Than a Recession” – Jeremy Grantham

o  o  o

An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead.

o  o  o

From the lefties at the Detroit Free Press: Is a recession inevitable in 2023? What the experts are saying.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“To me, a wilderness is where the flow of wildness is essentially uninterrupted by technology; without wilderness the world is a cage.” – David Brower  JWR’s Note: David Brower was the brother of my uncle Joseph Brower, who was much more conservative. Having a strident environmentalist liberal like Dave Brower in the family certainly made for some interesting and lively conversations at their holiday gatherings!

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — November 3, 2022

On November 3, 1903, Walker Evans, the American photographer best known for his portrayal of America during the Great Depression, was born.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 103 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Post-TEOTWAWKI Wound Care – Part 2, by M.V.

(Continued from Part 1. This concludes the article.)

Another type of abscess which might be encountered would be a perianal or perirectal abscess. Though hygiene can play a role it is typically caused by an infection in the perianal crypts which extends into the subcutaneous space. Pain and swelling typically occur as in all abscesses and prompt drainage is necessary. The longer that these progress; the more extensive that they become, so time is of the essence. Drainage is as previously described and your incision should be radially away from the anus as if the anus was a hub on a wheel and the incision is the spoke. You are looking for the softest spot on the swollen area which is typically away from the muscles which you do not want to cut. A generous incision is made with ellipse of skin and care as described previously. Most times you will not need oral antibiotics if you catch these early.

We can probably ignore the treatment of diabetic ulcers and venous and arterial ulcers and wounds because these patients will likely not have the required care and medications necessary remain stable for an extended period of time. Let us now discuss large wounds with significant tissue loss and necrosis. These can occur if a simple abscess is allowed to progress significantly as well as with traumatic injuries. The body’s response to large wounds is the same as with small, just on a grander scale. Modalities which we would employ in the here and now such as rotation flaps, skin grafts, wound vacuum devices will not be available. The biologic substances that are also available and quite expensive will also not be available.

One of the biggest issues with large wounds is control of infection. There are issues of fluid losses but we are not going to discuss wounds that are that large since the likelihood of survival in a post-collapse world with that type of wound will be an act of God.Continue reading“Post-TEOTWAWKI Wound Care – Part 2, by M.V.”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats, and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, some updates on the nuclear war threat.

Rule of Law Clinic Reports: Maintaining Continuity of Government

Over at the Fordham Law School website: Rule of Law Clinic Reports Focus on Maintaining Continuity of Presidency and Congress. The piece begins:

“Two new reports released by Fordham Law School’s Rule of Law Clinic conclude that the federal government is not adequately prepared to continue functioning in a crisis. One of the reports recommends reforms to the presidential line of succession, while the other considers how Congress can continue working in the aftermath of a catastrophe.”

Pentagon May Now Use Of Nukes Against Non-Nuclear Threats

In Stunning Strategy Reversal, Pentagon Will No Longer Rule Out Use Of Nuclear Weapons Against Non-Nuclear Threat.

US Boots Are On The Ground In Ukraine

Over at Zero Hedge: Pentagon Confirms US Boots Are On The Ground In Ukraine.  The article includes this:

“This week Finland has been among the first European countries to document the spread of West-supplied weaponry outside of Ukraine’s borders and into the hands of criminal elements, as we detailed previously. “Weapons shipped [by various countries] to Ukraine have also been found in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands,” Finland’s federal National Bureau of Investigation chief Christer Ahlgren was quoted by national broadcaster Yle as saying.”

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — November 2, 2022

On November 2, 1917, British Foreign Secretary Arthur James Balfour submitted a declaration of intent to establish a Jewish homeland, known as the Balfour Declaration. While Arab hostilities and the outbreak of World War II delayed the desired outcome, the Nation of Israel was eventually re-established in 1948.

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We are continuing the deeply-discounted sale on all of our shootable replica black powder revolvers at Elk Creek Company. Note that no FFL is required to order, and that cartridge conversion cylinders are available for many of these models. This sale will end on Tuesday, November 8th, so order soon!

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 103 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Post-TEOTWAWKI Wound Care – Part 1, by M.V.

Wound care is not the most glamorous of subjects but might come in handy down the road. We are not going to discuss the care we can provide in the here and now, which can be quite advanced as well as incredibly costly, but what we can do in a pinch if needed with stuff we have hanging around. This first part is the basic science of wound healing in a nutshell. It might glaze your eyes over but bear with it since it is always good to know what is actually happening in order to fix it.

It goes without saying that in order to talk about wound healing you first need a wound. Whether it is large or small the general process is the same and there are four phases: hemostasis, inflammatory, proliferative and remodeling.

If your body cannot stop the bleeding the outcome will not be good. Hemostasis (blood clotting) occurs in a couple of phases, which we will simplify. As an injury to a vessel occurs the vessel will constrict to stop the flow. The injury to the cells of the vessel wall will cause your platelets to activate which in itself has its own process. The platelets get sticky and try to stick to one another and to the injured cells, which causes a plug to form to try to stem the bleeding. This is primary hemostasis. Drugs such as aspirin, ibuprofen, and clopidigril (Plavix) inhibit primary hemostasis in a variety of ways. There effect on hemostasis is why people with heart disease, coronary and vascular stent placement, strokes, et cetera take these drugs. The science behind aspirin in relation to prevention of heart disease is undergoing some changes with newer long-term data, which does not show the benefit that was once thought.

This is probably a good time to mention that real science has real studies that take time to run. Data from long-term studies sometimes corroborates the early work, sometimes not. These studies can reveal new issues, unintended complications and maybe other benefits not previously known. The “science” and “data” over the past few years has at times been pretty shoddy. I think that is a polite way of describing the damage done. Enough of the soapbox. Let’s get back to hemostasis.Continue reading“Post-TEOTWAWKI Wound Care – Part 1, by M.V.”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

This weekly column is a collection of short snippets: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. Note that we may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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An interesting vlog from Norwegian commentator Bjorn Andreas Bull-Hansen (pictured): We Will Not Comply.

o  o  o

Over at The Organic Prepper: How Bob Griswold Used Ham Radio To Save a Man’s Life.

o  o  o

Our Editor-at-Large Michael Z. Williamson found a site with some great cutaway views of guns. Two examples, that Mike recommends:

AR-15 cycle of operation.

Remington 870.

Mike says: “He also has a Mauser, and others.  Step-by-step, with narration and animation.”

o  o  o

Scott was the first of several readers to send this link to a quite troubling article at The Intercept: Truth Cops: Leaked Documents Outline DHS’s Plans to Police Disinformation.

o  o  o

SaraSue sent this snippet:

“I didn’t send an update last week because I’ve been working myself hard, managing a farm by myself.  I have had major work going on with hired help: new roof, new house siding, a run-in shelter for calves, and a new chicken house.  Not to mention the renovations I’ve been doing by myself inside the house.

I decided to expand the chicken flock and the little coops I bought at Tractor Supply just don’t cut it, and they’re falling apart after only a year – a waste of money, hard to keep clean.  The new chicken house is 10’ x 12’ with lots of nesting boxes and roosting tree branches nailed in.  We’ve had very chilly temps at night – in the 20s – much earlier than normal.  Processing 21 gallons of milk every week has taken a lot of time, but I’ve got a freezer full of cheese and butter, and have enjoyed the amazing yogurt and fresh milk – best I’ve ever tasted in my life.  Being able to supply my children and grandchildren with these healthy foods has been so fulfilling.  The calf was weaned over a month ago, and my dear milk cow is finally, on the third attempt, “bred back”, so we should have a beef cow born on the farm next year. Her milk production has slowed down now that I’ve switched to only milking in the mornings, and I consider that a blessing – down to 14 gallons each week – much easier to process.  I spend time every evening “gentling” the calf, who is bigger than me, once all the other chores are done and before the sun goes down.  I’m looking forward to my 7th grandchild being born soon, here on the farm, with the help of midwives.  Please pray with me for a safe birth, and healthy baby.  Thank you.”

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“A man who does not know how to be angry does not know how to be good. And a man that does not know how to be shaken to his heart’s core with indignation over things evil is either a fungus or a wicked man.” – Henry Ward Beecher

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — November 1, 2022

November 1st is the birthday of economist Martin A. Armstrong. For many years he was a prisoner of conscience, in part because he refused to turn over his proprietary trading algorithms to Federal prosecutors. After seven years in prison without a trial, the longest Federal incarceration for contempt in American history, Armstrong was finally put on trial in a proceeding that was branded as a sham. He was convicted on securities fraud charges based upon some marginal testimony and given a five-year sentence. He was released from prison in September of 2011. Notably, Armstrong continued to write his economics newsletter while in prison, producing most of the issues on a prison library typewriter.

November 1st, 1923, is also the birthday of science fiction writer Gordon R. Dickson (born 1923, died January 31, 2001). Many of his novels and short stories, such as Wolf and Iron, have survivalist themes.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 103 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Building a Garden Dome to Increase Food Security, by K.R.

The pandemic has interrupted supply chains worldwide. Combine this with rising fuel costs, government crackdowns on fertilizer use, and suspiciously frequent fires at food processing plants, and people start talking about reductions in our society’s ability to produce enough food. While it is helpful to be able to store food, real food security comes from being able to grow enough food on your own indefinitely– in all situations.

In this climate, and with inflation heating up, my wife and I felt that the best tangible investment we could make was to increase our ability to grow food. We already have a 128-square-foot greenhouse where we grow tomatoes and cucumbers during the summer, and we have 24 raised beds where we use composted cow manure to grow carrots, peas, potatoes, spinach, lettuce, chard, beets, berries, and leeks. But we live in a zone 3 section of the Inland Northwest, and we can only grow these things during the summer. Even though we store a significant portion of our produce to use during the winter, leafy greens are much better when they are fresh; and there are some crops we avoid simply because our season is so short. So we began looking for ways to build a greenhouse that could produce food more months of the year, perhaps even during our cold, dark winters.

Our search led us to Growing Spaces in Colorado, whose motto is, “Gardens that Thrive 365.” They produce Grow Dome kits with components that help these geodesic greenhouses remain cool in the summer and warmer in the winter. This essay summarizes how the Growing Spaces Grow Dome helps to extend our growing season (in the hopes of giving readers ideas about how they can increase the length of their growing season using their own existing or self-designed growing spaces) and catalogs our experience in purchasing, constructing, and planting our Grow Dome.Continue reading“Building a Garden Dome to Increase Food Security, by K.R.”

October 2022 in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover gold’s performance, and the factors that affected gold prices.

What Did Gold Do in October?

Central bank rate hike programs depressed gold prices as the month went on in October. The dollar smashed all other currencies during October, fueled by the Fed’s determination to keep raising rates until something breaks. This added to the pressure on gold prices, as it became more expensive when bought with other currencies.

Prices recovered temporarily when market expectations grew that the Fed would pivot on rate hikes in December or February, but those hopes were short-lived as inflation showed no sign of easing.

Factors Affecting Gold This Month


FED RATE HIKE PREDICTIONS

It was another “good news is bad news” month for US markets in October. Hopes that the Fed would slow down on rate hikes were crushed every time good economic news was revealed. The one exception is inflation, where bad news is definitely bad. Headline inflation in the US was still above 8% in October, posting an 8.2% gain.

Rate hike forecasts have morphed over the last month. Everyone agrees that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points on November 2nd. A consensus had been building that the Fed would only hike rates by 50 bp in December, but that forecast was wiped out by the latest inflation numbers. A 75 bp hike is now penciled in for December, and earlier expectations of 25 bp hikes each in February and March have been replaced with forecasts of 50bp each. This will result in an interest rate of 5%.

SAFE HAVEN DEMAND

Briefly-serving UK Prime Minister Liz Truss came within hours of blowing up the UK economy and igniting a global financial crisis. Her “mini budget” proposed doing away with the highest tax bracket while engaging in billions of dollars of unfunded spending.

UK pension funds use leverered bond derivatives to make money, and the wholesale dumping of gilts threatened to wipe them out and force them into insolvency. Only an emergency nighttime intervention in the bond market by the Bank of England saved the British economy.

The threat of a Tory-led economic collapse and the crash of the British pound sent millions of Britons running to gold dealers to lock in their wealth before the worst happened. Major gold dealers reported that they were out of stock on everything, and as soon as they received small gold bars or bullion coins, they were snapped up.
____________

Russia is also experiencing a shortage of investor gold. Small gold bars have become the bullion of choice as economic sanctions cut off supplies of most major bullion coins, with retailers and banks unable to keep them in stock.

DOLLAR STRENGTH

Safe haven flows and Fed rate hikes have the US dollar pummeling all rivals this month. The euro was pushed below parity with the dollar for most of October, and the British pound was at historically weak levels versus the greenback even before Liz Truss tried to blow up the economy.
The Bank of Japan and the Chinese central bank have both had to intervene in the currency markets to prevent the yen and yuan becoming worthless. Japan and China are still both running expansionary monetary policy in an attempt to rescue their economies, while the rest of the world is tightening policy and raising interest rates. No wonder there’s a shortage of gold in China right now!

Central Banks

Other central banks are also battling inflation, which is made worse by their currencies being devalued by a strong dollar.

The ECB raised interest rates by 75 bp this month, something unheard of this summer. They have waited far too long to start raising rates, afraid of pushing the Eurozone into recession. High energy prices are driving EU economies into recession anyway, regardless of what the ECB does. Now they get to fight stagflation. EU consumer inflation hit a new record of 10.7% this month. Wholesale inflation for the Eurozone rose 43.3% (not a typo!) due to the natural gas crisis.
____________

The Bank of England sabotaged its own inflation fighting policy in October after it was forced into sudden Quantitative Easing in the bond market to prevent an economic collapse. The Bank assured markets that the emergency QE was just that, an emergency, and reaffirmed its commitment to raise rates to fight inflation even if the UK fell into recession.
_____________

The Australian central bank hiked rates by 25 bp instead of the expected 50bp, leading US markets to hope that it was a sign that the Fed would pivot from its robust rate hike strategy. Those hopes were snuffed out when OPEC announced it would cut production by 2 million barrels a day instead of increasing production, raising inflation forecasts worldwide.

Central Bank Gold Purchases

Central bank gold purchases slowed to a net 20 tons in August. Turkey was the big buyer, purchasing 8.9 tons of gold. Uzbekistan was right behind them, buying 8.7 tons. Kazakhstan bought 2 tons. There were no sellers of note.

Gold ETFs

Gold-backed ETFs saw continued outflows in September. A net 95 tons of gold left ETFs for the month – the largest monthly outflow since March 2021 as gold prices fell.

North American gold ETFs lost 58.9 tons; European ETFs saw 35.5 tons of outflows, while Asian gold ETFs remained nearly unchanged. The nations in the “Other” category saw 0.9 tons of outflows.

On The Retail Front

Sales of 2022 American Silver Eagles continue to be strangled by rationing at the US Mint. Once again, only 850,000 were sold. Lower gold prices during October weighed on gold bullion sales at the Mint, with 57,000 ounces of American Gold Eagles and 32,500 ounces of American Gold Buffalo coins sold.
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Britain’s Royal Mint saw record profits in their fiscal year. Sales of $1.33 billion resulted in pre-tax profits of $20.4 million. This was driven mostly by precious metals sales. Sales to US buyers were 62% higher
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The Perth Mint sold 88,554 oz of gold, and a 5-year high 2,579,941 oz of silver in September

Market Buzz

A survey at the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) Global Precious Metals Conference predicts an average gold price of $1,850 an ounce by this time next year. The same survey predicts a silver price of $28.30 an ounce.
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Gold imports by Turkey quintupled in September, up 543% as inflation hit another 24-year high of 83.45%.
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Gold prices in China spiked at one point to more than $40 per ounce over spot this month as gold importers hit their quota limits early. The Chinese government sets import quotas for gold. Once that limit is hit, imports stop, no matter how high demand is.
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A hike in customs duties in India has sparked enough gold smuggling in India that prices remained mostly unchanged last month. This led gold exporters to divert deliveries from India to China and Turkey, where it was selling for more.
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Jan Nieuwenhijs explains why European nations with large gold reserves have been selling gold, and smaller EU nations have been buying. They’re equalizing gold reserves according to GDP in order to create an EU Gold Standard currency.

Looking Ahead To Next Month

With the world the way it is lately, trying to guess the future is something of a fool’s game. We will start seeing holiday-shortened weeks in November, while the market continues vainly in trying to figure out Jerome Powell’s next move.

If you’re considering giving gold or silver presents for Christmas, you probably should have already ordered them, with shortages causing shipping delays. If you’re looking for something fresh in silver bullion, Gainesville Coins is now carrying a new Buffalo 1oz silver round design from the Mason Mint, with a realistic Indian and bison.

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This column is intended for educational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future result.

– Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins