Notes from JWR:

The situation in earthquake-ravaged Chile is still quite tenuous. SurvivalBlog reader “Zed” suggested that I mention this article from the BBC’s Stephen Mulvey: Chile earthquake: Why do people loot. And don’t miss this related article: Chileans protect, feed themselves after quake. Doesn’t this sound a lot like “a neighborhood watch, on steroids”? The conjecture about societal breakdown in SurvivalBlog that was once castigated as “fanciful” is now sounding quite plausible. Get the gear, and get the training, folks. Be ready, willing and able to dispense charity and to help restore order and re-establish free commerce, if and when things go sideways.

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Airguns for Survival, Jock Elliott

An air rifle or air pistol can be a really useful tool for anyone who needs to collect game unobtrusively while trying to survive.

I write a regular blog on airguns for www.airgunsofarizona.com . So here’s “Uncle Jock’s” take on why you might want to include an airgun in your survival kit.

Here’s a quick summary of the key advantages of airguns:

Tack-driving accuracy – High-end air rifles are among the most accurate projectile launchers on the planet. For example, Olympic match air rifles can literally put pellet after pellet through the same hole at 10 meters, and field target airgunners can routinely hit a dime at 50 yards with their air rifles. Some dedicated long-range airgunners report shooting sub-MOA groups at 100 yards and beyond.

Low shooting expense – Once you purchase your air rifle or air pistol, it will be superbly kind to your wallet. Depending upon which pellet your airgun “likes,” you’ll find typical shooting costs on the order of 1-3 cents per shot for ammunition. A sleeve (10 500-pellet tins) of high quality pellets will typically run around $120 plus shipping

Convenience and accessibility – Airguns can be legally shot in many places where it is absolutely forbidden to discharge a firearm. Check with your local authorities, but in many places, you can shoot an airgun in your backyard, basement or garage without running afoul of the law. That means you should be able to get in lots of practice at relatively low cost.

A neighbor-friendly report – Virtually all airguns are quieter than firearms (with the possible exception of some big-bore hunting models). In addition, it is rare for airguns to launch pellets faster than the sound barrier. Some airguns are inherently very quiet, and there are models that are virtually silent.

Some other considerations – You can spend as little or as much as you like, depending upon your tastes and your wallet. You can pick up a utilitarian air pistol or air rifle capable of bouncing soda cans around the back yard for under $50. Or you can spend thousands of dollars on the most sophisticated air rifles on the planet.

Powerplants:

Before you select an air rifle or air pistol, you need to understand the several different powerplants used in airguns to send the pellet downrange. Here’s an overview.

Multi-stroke pneumatic (MSP or pump-up) airguns require 2-8 strokes of an on-board lever (usually the forestock) to store compressed air in the powerplant. This is the powerplant of classic Benjamin and Sheridan air riles. They are virtually recoilless and completely self-contained, so all you need for a day afield is the gun and a tin of pellets. The power can be adjusted by the number of strokes, but once the gun has been fired, it must be pumped up all over again. Another consideration: when pumped up to the max, a multi-stroke pneumatic can be loud.

Single-stroke pneumatic (SSP) airguns also use a lever to compress air in the powerplant, but – as the name implies – require only a single stroke to fully charge the gun. This is the powerplant that was used on many older Olympic 10-meter match guns. SSPs are fully self-contained, easy to cock, highly consistent and often incredibly accurate. The power and speed of these guns is usually low, shooting relatively light match-grade .177 pellets at 500-600 fps.

Spring-piston airguns – also called “springers” – use a lever (normally the barrel or a side- or under-lever) to cock a spring and piston. When the trigger is pulled, the spring is released, pushing the piston forward and compressing a powerful blast of air that sends the pellet down the barrel. Springers are self-contained, often relatively quiet and can be very accurate, but the movement of the spring and piston within the gun before the pellet leaves the muzzle makes them the most difficult airgun type to shoot with high accuracy. Nevertheless, many riflemen can and do master shooting springers.

CO2 airguns use 12-gram cartridges, 88-gram cartridges or CO2 transferred from a bulk tank to launch the pellet. CO2 airguns are recoilless, convenient, and (in target models, increasingly replaced by PCP target models) extremely accurate. Noise levels vary from model to model. Cocking effort is usually very low, making these guns a favorite for family shooting. CO2 airguns require periodic refilling and performance can vary with temperature. Velocity will drop in wintry conditions, and rise in very warm conditions.

Precharged pneumatic airguns (PCPs) are charged with air from a SCUBA tank or high-pressure pump. This is powerplant of choice for high-energy hunting guns, Olympic 10-meter rifles and pistols, and top-echelon field target rifles. PCPs are virtually recoil-free, very consistent, and often superbly accurate. But they are not self-contained – you need a SCUBA tank or high-pressure hand pump available to recharge them, and they can be noisy.

Additional Considerations

When I think about survival airguns, here are the characteristics that I would prefer (and, as you will see, they don’t always work together, so you’ll need to pick the characteristics that are most important to you):

1. Portability. That means either a pistol or a rifle than can be readily broken down. That eliminates many air rifles.

2. Self-contained. I want to reduce the need for ancillary equipment and consumables. That eliminates all CO2 airguns (which don’t work well in cold weather) and pre-charged airguns which require a tank or pump for recharging.

3. Sufficient power for taking small game. Target air pistols won’t get it done. Some springer pistols make 6 foot-pounds of energy, which is sufficient if you skills allow to stalk within 10-15 yards on small game. Some multi-stroke pneumatic pistols make 8-10 foot pounds of energy. Most air rifles generate enough energy to do the job. I have reliable reports of one shooter killing a feral goat with a multi-stroke pneumatic rifle, and another shooter inadvertently killing a deer with a cheap Chinese spring-piston rifle (he was trying to chase it away from the plants in his yard and caused a pneumo-thorax).

4. Stealthy report. I don’t want to be noticed. Spring-piston powerplants are inherently quieter than most others because of the smaller quantity of air used to drive the pellet. Multi-stroke pneumatics tend to generate more noise than springers, but can be quieted with barrel shrouds or by reducing the number of pumps (which reduces the power).

5. Easy to shoot well. Spring-piston powerplants are the hardest to shoot well because of their whiplash forward and back recoil. Multi-stroke pneumatics are easy to shoot well.

6. Reliability. Airguns dealers tell me that springers are the most reliable powerplant. You can usually put at least a couple of thousand rounds through one before a rebuild is needed, and some are far more reliable.

7. Ease of maintenance. Spring piston powerplants usually require a spring compressor for assembly and disassembly. MSPs usually can be taken apart with hand tools.

Specific recommendations. The Mac-1 Steroid Benjamin or Steroid Sheridan is a dead reliable MSP rifle that can easily take small game out to 30 yards, is easily broken down, but is loud at full power and very difficult to silence. A modified 1377 pistol can be built up into a small, easy take-down .22 MSP rifle. It makes a bit less power than a Steroid MSP, and can be readily silenced.

The Diana/RWS LP8, Beeman P1, Browning 800, and Weihrauch HW45 are spring-piston pistols that make around 6 foot-pounds of energy, are inherently fairly quiet (but not dead quiet) and require some dedication to shoot with high precision. Nevertheless, small game has been taken with them, especially at closer ranges.

Jock Elliott, Airgun Correspondent, Precision Shooting Magazine, and author of Elliott on Airguns.



Letter Re: Disturbed by the After Armageddon Docudrama

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I fully enjoy your site and have been reading it daily for some time now.Only yesterday did I follow the link to the You Tube video, After Armageddon.

And only yesterday did the question dawn on me: Following any disaster, what percentage of survivors would be forced to leave their homes?

In twenty years of practicing preparedness, I’ve never given the question any thought!

Sure, I am well prepared and sited in a very rural area flush with abundant water, fish and game, mature hardwoods and other natural resources. I’ve a modest farm with large gardens, we can and preserve every year, and are capable of generating electricity without liquid fuels. I’ve ammo and firearms maintenance tools enough for several lifetimes.

Thus, I would never, under any circumstance, consider leaving my home.

Perhaps in some slightly perverse way, I have been looking forward to TEOTWAWKI. My family and I are enjoying a 19th century bucolic homestead, out of doors most days, maintaining a robust vigilance, eating well, staying warm, raising and educating children and so on.

In short, my family would make only the few adjustments brought on by the failure of high current commercial power, abandonment of motor transport in favor of our mules, and no mechanical refrigeration.

So I am now truly vexed with the question: Just how many folks are like me? What are the numbers of people who will not have any need to leave their homes? Do you have an idea of the numbers? I’d love to know your thoughts. Sincerely, – Tom H.

JWR Replies: Know the numbers is nigh-on impossible, since exact situations cannot be predicted. It is possible, however, to draw some conclusions based on some fairly safe general assumptions. At the core, it all depends on the big linchpin: grid-up, or grid-down. Without grid power for an extended period of time, most cities and even many suburbs will become uninhabitable. I suspect that in a grid-up situation, most people will stay put. But in a grid-down situation, there may be huge numbers of refugees.



Economics and Investing:

C.M. suggested this alarming opinion piece by Niall Ferguson that ran in the Los Angeles Times: America, the fragile empire–Here today, gone tomorrow — could the United States fall that fast?

Items from The Economatrix:

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Don’t Go Wobbly on Us Now, Ben Bernanke

The Sovereigns and the Serfs

Peter Schiff: Don’t Bet on a Recovery

The Financial Battle For The Middle Class: Underemployment At 20%; 38 Million Americans On Food Stamps; Little Hiring; Can It Be A Recovery With No Jobs For This Long?



Odds ‘n Sods:

I was doing some research on behalf of reader Dan K. about temperature stability for medications that are buried in waterproof containers, and I came across this useful map, which is probably already familiar to many gardeners.

   o o o

Ready Made Resources is running a semi-annual 25% off sale on Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans. They are offering free shipping on full case lots. These foods are delicious, compact, and have a 30 year shelf life. There is now just 10 days left for the sale, so order soon!

   o o o

Courtesy of reader Jim B.: Cellphones Become Our Comfort Objects During Disaster

   o o o

Sleepless in Seattle, but Clueless in Tacoma: ATF seizes 30 toy guns, infuriating local business owner. JWR Adds: I’d love to meet the expert that could “readily convert” those to shoot live ammo. Perhaps the same wizard could transmute some lead into gold for me, while he’s at it! (A tip of the hat to Chad S., for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The true God is a living, intelligent, and powerful being. His duration reaches from eternity to eternity; His presence from infinity to infinity. He governs all things." – Sir Isaac Newton



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



The Realities of Interpersonal Combat: How Are You Preparing?, by Officer Tackleberry

I will start this article with a question: What are you doing on a regular basis (i.e. daily) to prepare yourself mentally, physically, emotionally, and most of all, spiritually, to not just survive, but prevail during a violent encounter?

This is a question I ask myself on a regular basis.  I have also posed this same question to my hand-to-hand combat students.

There is no question that interpersonal violence will be fact of life for many in a post-societal collapse.  But, it is a reality in today’s society that many people (i.e. sheeple) choose to ignore.

Depending on your source for statistics, the number of instances of violent crime reported [in the US] in 2008 was more than 5,000,000.  Yes, there are six zeros after that 5!  That figure astounds and saddens me, but doesn’t surprise me.

My full-time job is a police officer with a suburb of a major city that regularly meets or exceeds the number of violent acts from the previous year.  These acts of violence are prominently displayed in local newspapers and on radio and television.  Yet, for many, they refuse to accept this reality and thus refuse to prepare to for it.

Security Awareness

Security awareness needs to be a way of life for all of us because prevention is the best defense.  Now, I am not talking about paranoia, but preparation and practice.  One such example of being security minded is locking your doors once you are in your house or car.  How many times have you seen someone get into their car and talk on their cell phone or do some other task while being totally oblivious to what’s going around them?  Maybe you have even done this yourself.

Speaking of locking your doors, how many of you consistently make sure that the door from the garage to your house is always locked?  I can’t even begin to guess the number of burglaries that I have been on where the offender(s) found the victim’s garage door open and the offender(s) then gained entry into the home via the unlocked man door.  As part of your daily OPSEC for your residence, make sure the garage door is shut and the man door is locked.

Let’s take the last scenario one step further.  Just this past summer I saw several incidents in which the offender(s) pushed the center of the garage door back far enough to reach the disconnect cord for the electric garage door.  Once the opener is disconnected from the chain, they quietly lifted the garage door and stole valuable items from the garage.  Also, in one case they gained entry into the home because the man door to the garage from the house was unlocked.

A personal security tool that you can purchase for yourself and keep on you at all times is a small LED flashlight.  Streamlight, Surefire and Dorcy are just three of the quality brands that are out there.  You want a small metal one that’s not much longer than the width your hand so I am not talking about one of those big, 3 or 5 “D” cell Mag-Lites, even though those are good options for your vehicle and home. Having a flashlight already in your hand allows you to check in and around your car when you’re in dark parking lots or garages and performing OPSEC on your personal property.  You can also shine this light in the eyes of a potential assailant, causing temporary blurred vision and disorientation.  If you choose to get a flashlight, try to get one with a tail-activation switch option and that has replacement batteries and keep at least two extra batteries with you at all times.  Most people, even cops, forget to charge their lights and the lights don’t work when they need them the most.  Also, consider getting a light with the scalloped or serrated edges around the lens area.  It makes a great impact weapon should you need it.

Entire chapters can be written on personal and property security awareness.  But, suffice it say, security awareness needs to become a way life because, especially post-WTSHTF, your life may literally depend on it.

Hand-to-Hand Combat

As I mentioned earlier in the article, I am a Hand-to-Hand (H2H) practitioner and instructor.  My primary form is an Israeli H2H system that I have taught to both civilian and law enforcement.  I also teach security awareness and self defense seminars for women in the community.

I have studied several different styles of martial arts over the past 25+ years and have seen many drawbacks of traditional systems.  Most traditional systems are heavy on tradition but light in the area of combat applications.  This fact is well known and recently there has been a plethora of “new” systems out there that refer to themselves as reality-based martial arts (RBMA).

I personally believe that everyone should learn how to defend themselves with both empty hands and weapons.  Even now, depending on the size of your area, the number of officers on duty, and some other factors, our response to your 911 call could be anywhere from two minutes to an hour.  Even if our response is only two minutes, when fighting for your life that may seem like an hour.  Post-WTSHTF, police response may be non-existent. 

RBMAs have tried to step in and market themselves as the “answer” for your H2H needs.  But, there are some serious dangers involved that you need to be aware of.  First, it seems like most of the instructors or “creators” of these systems are former Navy SEALs, Green Berets, Special Forces etc.  Please take the time to learn the instructors true credentials, check references, and observe a few classes.  Also, be wary of the home study courses that claim that you will be able to defeat any attacker in seconds if you just purchase their products.

Another type of RBMA is one that relies heavily on ground fighting, such as Gracie or Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, or on joint locks, such as traditional Japanese Jiu-Jitsu, Aikido, or some blend thereof.  The goal of these systems, especially in the beginning stages, is to learn to defeat and/or control another one-on-one.  There are too many variables in a violent encounter to justify spending time wrapped up tight with just one person. 

You should train in a system that teaches you to defend common attacks, encourages aggression when appropriate, limits ground work at the beginning levels, works in multiple attacker scenarios on a regular basis and teaches empty hand vs. weapons at the lower levels.  Some of the styles I mentioned do these same things but normally at a much higher rank level which translates to much longer training time.  At our school, you will see all of the above within the first 6 months of training.  I am not saying the system I train/teach in has all of the answers because such a system doesn’t exist.  However, one comment I hear consistently is how the participant felt they were ready to defend themselves after the first lesson. This was how our system was designed and is why the Israeli military and police use it to this day.

I know that there are many proponents out there that believe mixed martial arts (MMA), judo, boxing, Thai boxing and wrestling are competent RBMAs, and they are for what they are designed for.  However, these specific RBMAs are limited by rules, safety equipment, number of opponents (which there is only 1), and lack of non-personal weapons.  Don’t get me wrong, these specific systems bring a lot of good training characteristics to the party and I have participated in several of them myself.  But, the point is that you need to train beyond the limitations of these systems. 

Now, some personal thoughts about your family members training in H2H.  If your budget allows, I believe each household member should receive competent H2H training.  Encourage your spouse/significant other to train but, when it comes to your children, especially younger ones, I think you should mandate it.  My wife has attended a womens’ self defense seminar and we recently discussed her attending another one.  While she doesn’t take formal classes on a regular basis, she likes Tae Bo so I encourage it.  Tae Bo done on a regular basis provides her with physical fitness, is fun for her, and allows her to practice some of the moves she had learned.

As far as children are concerned, I believe that quality self-defense training is a must.  According to a study I read a couple of years ago, there are more than 250,000 assaults in public schools every year.  Based on my experience, I believe that the actual number for this is about 25-50% higher.  I know many schools don’t report these incidents because they believe that it will reflect negatively on them.  I know that the training my children have been through has greatly helped them.  One of my children has had issues with a bully and has had to defend himself from an attack where the other child was choking him with both hands on his throat.  This same child was also saved from a nasty fall on concrete when he executed a perfect break fall after he accidentally tripped over an object when playing.  A real good resource for preparing your children is the DVD titled, “I Am Not a Target“.  We found a copy of it at our local library and I highly recommend it.

One key aspect of having you and your family trained in a quality H2H system is that everyone should be able to recognize pre-assault indicators.  This way, if one of you doesn’t see the indicators, someone else in your family may and then they warn the rest of the family and/or attack the assailants.  This especially vital in a post-WTSHTF period when it might just be your family against “the world”.

Don’t Cheat Fair!

I have a specific saying and philosophy when it comes to self-defense: The only fair fight is one that I win!  I have applied this saying to both my personal and professional life.

At the beginning of this article, I mentioned not just surviving, but prevailing during a violent encounter.  You must think and train with the understanding that you may be the only thing standing between your loved ones and their potential pain, suffering, or even death. 

What are you willing to do to stop a violent assault against you or loved one?  Are you willing to scratch, bite, or dig your thumb in someone’s eye?  Are you willing to hit someone with a lamp, run them over with a car, plunge a butcher knife into them, or stab them in the neck with a pen?

These are questions you must ask yourself ahead of time and be mentally, physically, emotionally and spiritually prepared to do what is necessary to prevail.

One aspect of not cheating fair is using your environment.  Take a look around at the area you are in right now.  What items do you see that you could defend yourself or someone else with?  What could become a barrier between you and your attacker?  What could you strike or stab an attacker with?  Is there anything that you could throw on an attacker that could cause pain, like hot coffee?  If you are at home, how quickly could you get to a firearm should you have picked one out for home defense?  Knowing your environment is a security awareness concept that you should be practicing constantly.

Now, let’s talk about biting and eye gouging.  How many of you have ever been bitten real hard?  I have and it was one of my children.  She was 18 months old and she sunk her teeth into my neck the first time I started to dunk her into a pool.  She bit me so hard that my girlfriend had to physically pry open her jaws to get her off of me.  I remember two distinct things: first, it was some of the worst pain I had ever experienced and secondly, it didn’t bleed.  I know some people are scared that by biting another person, they may contract some kind of disease.  Yes, that is a valid concern.  But if you’re dead because you wouldn’t cheat fair, does it really matter?  Also, if the attacker intends the attack to be a sexual assault, what are you most likely to get a disease from, the completed sexual assault or some blood from a bite?  When you bite, go for a major muscle area like the chest, shoulders, side of the neck, back and thighs.  Try to stay away from appendages such as fingers, ears, nose, or genitalia.  These areas, while being fairly sensitive, will separate from the body with enough force, which helps the attacker with the pain factor, and these areas have the tendency to bleed a lot more.  Why take the chance with blood if we don’t have to?

As soon as you mention sticking your thumbs in someone’s eyes, you see people’s demeanor change.  It’s a gross thought that cause many to squirm.  When my wife was in her self defense class and the instructors mentioned eye gouges, she looked at me and said that she couldn’t think of any reason why she would do something like that to another person.  I quickly asked her what she would do if someone suddenly grabbed our son from her.  I immediate saw a physical change in her demeanor.  Her eyebrows furled, her shoulders raised and her fists clenched.  She just visualized a reason she absolutely would stick her thumb in someone’s eye.  A good account of someone doing this very thing in combat can be found in the book, “House to House”, which is about the Battle of Fallujah.

Weaponry Options

No discussion about interpersonal combat would be complete without talking about weapons.  I will focus this part on weapons that are used for close quarters combat.  These weapons will be classified as blunt, chemical sprays, edged, electric discharge, firearms (mainly handguns) and improvised weapons.

When I think of blunt weapons, I think of any object that can be swung fast and hard as to cause blunt force trauma.  Some common blunt weapons are ball bats, sticks, telescoping batons (ASP, Monodnock), kubotans and hammers.  If you carry or intend to carry a blunt weapon for personal defense, you need to practice regularly by striking fairly stiff objects such as a heavy bag or rolled-up carpet.  Many people are surprised how a blunt weapon feels in their hands when striking a hard object.  I know of several instances of where officers have had their batons go flying out of their hands when they have struck a suspect.

Chemical sprays seem to be a choice that many people, especially females, make.  Actually many chemical spray products are specifically marketed to women as self-defense tool.  Chemical sprays have their place but some things to keep in mind is that it is not instantly incapacitating to an attacker, you will likely be contaminated as well and you need to practice regularly to know your particular spray device works.  Several manufacturers sell an inert spray that can be used for training or you can buy a second can of the same kind so you can practice. 

Use of edged weapons is an area that I know I am weak in, and I continue to learn more about. It is also an area filled with many options, misconceptions and a plethora of experts.  Edged weapons are scary to face and personally, when empty-handed, I would rather be facing a pistol or other weapon in close quarters than an edged weapon.  When learning about edged weapons, make sure that sure that your training includes defense against and the offensive use of the weapon.  Spyderco and other manufactures make training knives that look just like a regular one but that don’t have a sharpened blade.  The first time that I trained with this knife it was intimidating to me because it looked so real.  Another training option I recommend is to take several pieces of heavy duty cardboard and glue them one on top of the other until it’s about 4-5” thick.  Now you can slash and stab the cardboard several times.  This will help you to decide if the knife you have chosen will work with the impact of combat.  Once you find one that can hold up to this kind of training and not tear your hand up, keep that one for training and buy a second one for everyday carry.

In my humble opinion, electric discharge devices such as stun guns, Tasers, and similar devices are the most over-hyped and misunderstood self-defense options out there.  Based on my experience and research, these devices don’t always work when needed and, especially stun guns don’t instantly incapacitate an attacker.  Add to the fact that these devices are battery and technologically-dependant, and I believe that they are very impractical, especially in a post-WTSHTF world.

For many people, the firearms option is an absolute must.  If you choose this option then you need to constantly train with it. Shooting is a very perishable skill.  Also, shooting a few rounds into a paper bull’s eye target is not training, it just helps you to get familiar with the gun. Try to shoot human silhouette or similar paper targets.  Shooting competitions, especially the IDPA, are good ways to work on your skills under the stress of competition.  Your training should include force-on-force scenario training with Airsoft, Simunitions, and/or paint ball.  Airsoft guns are a great basic training options for children and others that are not familiar with and/or are initially scared of guns.  You can work on grip, sight picture, sight alignment, trigger control, basic marksmanship and gun safety. While nothing replaces shooting real ammo, air-soft is a great option that I use myself at a mere fraction of the cost of shooting real ammo and I can do it in my home. Just make sure to get a CO2 or green gas operated gun and not a spring operated one that has to be cocked with every round.  You need to train different retention options with your gun, whether the gun is deployed or still in the holster.  You also need to train to shoot one handed with either hand and train to use your flashlight and your gun together for low-light situations.

I kind of glossed over improvised weapons in the “don’t cheat fair” section.  Use your environment to your advantage.  I have seen this done in both bar fights and by women who have defended themselves from domestic assaults.  I have seen people who have been hit with pool sticks, bottles, mugs, pool balls, 2x4s, chairs, and cooking pans.  In many cases the injuries were quite severe.  Some other options are pens, vehicles, screwdrivers, garden implements and household brooms or mops.  One great option is a small fire extinguisher that you keep in your home and/or vehicle.  These are fairly small and lightweight so they can be wielded as an effective impact weapon plus if you spray it an attackers face, it is hard for them to breath and see.  An option I hear touted a lot is putting a key between your fingers and strike that way.  For this to work, you must hit a vital area, which is very hard to do in a dynamic situation.  Plus, I believe that the impact will cause significant enough damage to your hand at impact that they keys will leave your hand and cause severe injury to you.  To see so for yourself, fold a towel over several times and put it over a small pillow that’s lying in the floor.  Now, slowly strike downwards into the towel/pillow combination.  I think you will find that just a soft strike like this can sting your hand.  A good option for your keys is keep a small chain or lanyard on it, like the ones that you see people wear around their necks.  In a self-defense situation, grab the lanyard and swing your keys in a circular motion towards the attacker like a mid-evil flail.  When choosing a lanyard or similar option, get one with as much metal as possible, especially the clip that attaches to the keys.  You want something that will hold up to the impact that will result from a strike.

A common theme for weapons is that you need to regularly train with whatever options you choose.  Consistent, quality training is must that will pay off when you need it.  Do a lot of research and networking to find competent instructors and training venues.  While nothing can equal the stress of actual combat, choose training options/venues that put you under stress, which helps prepare you for combat.  This is why force-on-force training is so critical.

Your Mind: Your Greatest Resource

Preparing your mind and your body for the realities of combat should be a constant journey, not a destination.  For average citizen, seriously hurting or killing another person is not a normal behavior and I thank God for this.  This is why we are able to have a somewhat “civilized “ society.

The military and law enforcement know that this is true and that’s why measures are taken in training to help soldiers and police officers overcome this normal resistance.  Humanoid 3-D targets, human-shaped steel or paper targets, video simulators and force-on-force training are just some of the methods used to help remove hesitation/resistance.

Along with previous mentioned training methods, you should be thinking of scenarios in your mind and how you would react to them.  We do this in law enforcement all of the time.  But, it is no longer referred to as “if/when” thinking.  This method is now referred to as “when this happens, this is what I will do”.  When you leave “if” in the equation, there seems to be room for doubt and many people are still surprised when a violent event occurs.  By using the “when/what” method of preparation, you are more likely to be surprised when a violent event doesn’t occur.

Also, you need to be thinking outside the box.  An example of such thinking is feigning compliance should someone get the drop on you and has a temporary advantage over you.  This is especially true in sexual assault situations.  Feigning compliance may cause the offender to lower his guard enough for you to launch a counter attack or it may cause him to take his eye off you long enough for you to grab an improvised weapon.  Another example in the area of sexual assault is that the attacker may get close enough for you to suddenly bite or scream into his ear.  How many of you have picked up a child who suddenly screams just about the time you get the child to your face level? It scares the heck out of you.  Screaming when in close to an attacker is a great force multiplier.

There are some great training books that will help you to prepare for the mental, emotional, and spiritual aspects of being involved in combat.  First and foremost on the list is the Bible.  One Biblical example is David, who was a great warrior who served God and protected His people.  The books “On Combat” , “On Killing” and “Sharpening the Warriors Edge ” are also great resources.

But, even with everything I have said previously, I believe that the strength to defend yourself or a loved shouldn’t come from just you because the human is a created being and thus has limitations.  The strength that you should rely on comes from God and the hope we have in His Son, Jesus, as our risen Lord and Savior.  As a Christian, I pray for God’s strength and protection on a regular basis and I hope that you do too.

I pray that this article is useful and informative to you.  I pray for our nation and our leaders.  I also pray for God’s blessing and protection for each of you and your families.



Letter Re: Some Thoughts on The Golden Horde

One of the SurvivalBlog concepts that has fascinated (and haunted) me since learning of it has been the concept of the Golden Horde: the exodus of the unprepared-but-entitled softies, fleeing the cities in search of food, water and shelter after a SHTF scenario.

I say “haunted” because – out of necessity – my retreat lies in the middle of a triangle formed by three medium-size cities, so I’ve long suspected that I would be in prime Golden Horde country.

In order to understand what such an exodus might actually look like, I decided to make some assumptions about travel behavior and then superimpose those assumptions onto a map. I wanted to model something that I could actually prepare and plan for, rather than just worry about an invisible foe.

My nephew runs an instant oil change shop, and several months ago – when I first started reading SurvivalBlog – I asked him to begin noting the average amount of gasoline customers had in their tank when they brought them in.

This isn’t in any way scientific; I just wanted some sort of information to base my assumptions on. After about two months of watching, my nephew reported that the average is somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 tank of gas.

I had assumed, if graphed out, it would probably be a bell-curve with a few people having a full tank and a few people running on fumes, and everyone else hovering somewhere around the middle. So I was a bit surprised that the average seemed to be quite a bit below half. I told this to a gas station owner friend of mine, and he said he wasn’t surprised. He said nowadays people tend to just buy gas as needed (usually in even dollar amounts), and rarely “fill it up”.

For my assumptions, I will say that most people have a gas tank that’s 40% full.

As for average gas tank size on the road today, I basically had to trust the web for this one, and most of what I read put the average at between 14 and 16 gallons. I decided to split the difference and say 15 gallons.

A 15 gallon tank that is 40% full contains 6 gallons.

According to web sites that track such things, the average highway MPG of the 20 most common new vehicles on the road is 22 MPG. This does not account for all the used vehicles on the road. Also, I couldn’t find average city MPG figures, but judging by the typical relationship between highway and city MPG, I’m assuming that the stop-and-start driving of a mass evacuation would be even worse than typical city driving, and would certainly offer no more than 18 MPG. I think 18 MPG would be generous.

Furthermore, after a genuine SHTF scenario, gas stations will be sold out within minutes, so for most people, additional gasoline above and beyond what they already have in their cars will simply not be an option. Which means that – to my surprise – after TSHTF, the majority of drivers fleeing the city will travel not much more than 108 miles before having to proceed on foot.

Based on disasters like Katrina and others, I assume at least 20% of the city will stay behind to try to make a go of it, and 80% will flee. Who knows if that will be accurate. Perhaps as many as half will stay behind, but for me, I used 80% as a kind of worst-case assumption.

Now, I had to formulate some route assumptions. These will vary from city to city, and you’ll have to arrive at your own assumptions about this, but in my particular area, here is what I’ve come up with: 70% of people will (try to) use interstates, 25% will use state highways and 5% will use rural and secondary roads.

I’ve further assumed that the city will disperse in all directions. In other words, there is no compass point that will be particularly favored. This may not be true everywhere, but in my area, there’s no real or perceived advantage to heading East vs. West for example.

I’ve been informally observing interstate traffic patterns in my area (something I’d advise you to do as well) and about 1 in 17 cars (say 6%) make a turn from the road they’re on to any given side road or exit.

In other words, if you start at some random point with 1,000 cars, at the next off-ramp, about 60 will exit, leaving 940 on the road. At the next exit, 56 cars will get off or turn and 884 cars will continue on the interstate.

In normal day-to-day life, cars also get on the interstate at these places too, but I suspect that in a genuine SHTF scenario, people who are already out of the city will be less somewhat less likely to join the extremely slow, Golden Horde on the interstates.

Again, trying to get accurate figures for these things is obviously extremely difficult, and who knows if these figures will hold after SHTF, but by erring on the high side of things, you can at least have something to plan for.

So armed with these assumptions, let’s now apply them to a roadmap.

Go to Google Maps and pick the major city that’s nearest your location, and multiple the population by .8 (or whatever your assumption is on how many people will be bugging out).

Now, distribute those people along all the outbound interstates, state highways and secondary roads according to your assumptions. (In my case, 70% interstate, 25% state highways, 5% secondary.)

Then follow each route that heads in your general direction, losing 6% at each exit, or intersection and continuing with this until you get about 110-120 miles. These are the locations where people are going to congregate and decide what to do next.

From here, these groups will disperse in a more scattered way (since they’re on foot), with perhaps 20% choosing to take exits and side roads, a few even going cross-country in search of something to eat.

Be sure to repeat this for other nearby cities, and when you’re finished, you should have a (very) rough idea of the number of hungry people who may be descending upon your area. The accuracy of these figures will be entirely dependent on the accuracy of your assumptions, but hopefully it will aid in your planning.

Prior to doing this experiment, I had a vague uneasiness about this issue, but now I know that there will be about 2,200 refugees that will pass directly in front of my property gate on foot, with some percentage of those probably daring to walk the mile-long driveway to my house. I’m still uneasy about the situation, but at least now it feels like a manageable problem instead of an unknown bogeyman. – Rex J.



Economics and Investing:

Reader John S. spotted this: California is a greater risk than Greece, warns JP Morgan chief

I found an article linked in a piece by Dr. Gary North that illustrates just how deep a hole the Federal government is digging: $126.9 Billion and Counting.

The charts in Nathan’s recent blog piece tell a thousand words. This is no ordinary recession. We’ve fallen off a cliff.

George Gordon spotted this: Gold Hits Record High In Euros, Pound.

Items from The Economatrix:

Ron Paul Discusses Coming US Collapse

Jim Rogers: Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks

Housing Recovery Looking Shakier than Expected

Consumer Confidence Weakens in February

No Relief From Tax Agony (The Mogambo Guru)

Massive Bank Failures Due, Says Bank Oversight Panel

Commercial Mortgage Default Rate in US More than Doubles

More Merger Activity Helps Lift Stocks for Third Day

Postal Service’s Emerging Model: Never on Saturday

Bad Debts Hit Record High

Chilean Stocks Post World’s Biggest Drop as Quake Closes Roads



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “Straycat” says: Don’t count on 911, and don’t be one of the Sheeple: Man Dies During Storm When 911 Calls Go Unheeded

   o o o

Devon yachtsman jailed for ‘piracy protection’ shotgun
. (Thanks to Dane S. for the link.)

   o o o

Reader Steve K. found this: Backpack Hydroelectric Plant Gives You 500 Watts on the Move

   o o o

Bob G. sent this humorous short video clip of BHO addressing a US Navy audience. (BTW, more often that not, Navy “Corpsmen” end up with a surviving patient, rather than a corpse. So they get my heartfelt praise!)





Notes from JWR:

The news from Chile keeps getting worse. I’m now of the opinion that there wasn’t more extensive looting in Haiti simply because there were very few things of value available to loot. The country is that poor–desperately poor. But in Chile, there is some loot worth stealing, and my-oh-my has the thin veneer of civility been torn away! SurvivalBlog reader Bob G. sent this from The Daily Mail: Security concerns spread as Chile quake death toll rises. Bob’s comment: “Do you remember the docu-drama After Armageddon? The comment by one the people in that show was that “we are nine meals from anarchy.” Well, this interview subject [in Chile] was only six meals way.”

Josh sent me these news links: Chile Battles Lawlessness, Desperation After Massive Earthquake (VOA), Hundreds of looters detained in Chile (ABC Australia), and Chile earthquake news: Soldiers struggle to quell looting, president imposes curfew (New York Daily News). This was Josh’s summary comment: “Fire up the printing presses for aid money…inflation be damned! Even if it isn’t TEOTWAWKI, when the SHTF, we can expect 90% of the population to be ill-prepared, hungry mobs, looting, curfews, martial law, etc. It would be prudent to keep a low profile!”

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Letter Re: Honeybees for Retreat Defense

Dear Jim,
I’m very sorry to hear about your recent loss! God Bless!

Thank you for all the work you put into your survival blog to get the much needed word out! It is much appreciated! My wife and I live in the mountains of Western Oregon and the following is one of the defensive strategies we use that may be of interest to your readers.

A good defense from mobs for a couple living alone is bee hives. A hive of bees tipped over will attack anything that moves within 50′ to 100′ of the hive day or night. (maybe further) We set hives along the driveway into our house and inside of the deer fence around our house which encloses about a half acre.

At night you can extend your bees attack area by placing electric lights some distance from the hives. The bees will always fly toward the light. The lights should be individual bulbs which can be turned on to illuminate a certain area. Only light up the area where the bees are needed.

Bees are very good for blockading roads or driveways. They are very persistent. You will need bee equipment to avoid being stung: bee suit, hat, veil, gloves and boots. And you will need the bee suit to put the hives back together.

Bee hives can easily be tipped over with a rope or wire attached around the top, if they are close enough to the house or defensive position. For longer distances a piece of heavy sheet metal can be leaned against a hive and shot into with a high powered rifle. (Being careful not to destroy the hive boxes.)

Bees normally begin flying when the temperature reaches 54 degrees F. At lower temperatures they soon drop dead. Bees will fly in any temperature if their hive is tipped over but the lower the degrees the more bees you will lose. In a survival situation bees will provide you with honey and a good non-lethal defense.

You will need to study beekeeping which is very interesting. Bees can live and forage in almost any environment. The bees will also pollinate your survival garden and orchard and increase yields by 30 to 50%.

Every survivalist should be a beekeeper… for the honey and for defense… and for the fun of it. – Pete in Oregon



Two Letters Re: Cost-Effective Emergency Water Treatment

Jim,

Having been a small municipal water system operator in Upstate New York, I have some experience with basic water treatment. The link provided in ” Chris in West Virginia’s” article is sound in regard to using Sodium dichloro-s-triazinetrione. One would want to use a test kit to measure residual chlorine in the water and maintain the level between 0.3 and 1ppm after initial treatment. To treat water, chlorine is added until the level is at least 0.5ppm after an one hour contact time. It is critical that the chlorine have time to interact with the water and some method of stirring the water during treatment must be employed. Once the water has had time to interact with the chlorine, there will be levels of combined chlorine in the form of chlorides and “free” residual chlorine. Presence of residual chlorine indicates that the water is saturated enough with chlorine that any microbes/contaminants present will continue to be oxidized.

Having clean, filtered water to work with is important as bacteria and other nasties can adhere to microscopic particles in the water making chlorine treatment difficult. There is not a particular specification for the size of particles; however, a bit of research into water treatment will reveal that municipal authorities typically use a flocculant to cause microscopic particles to congeal and sink to the bottom of a clarification basin. They use this method to quickly clarify water. In a survival situation, a good gravity filter for dirty water could be employed prior to chlorination to ensure that most, if not all contaminants are removed from the water. After treatment, the water should be kept still and siphoned from the containing vessel to ensure that any remaining contaminants settle to the bottom of the container. Also, the chlorine level of the water should be maintained at all times to ensure continuous protection.

These methods of water treatment are for surface water as well water typically does not support bacteria growth if the well is in continuous use; however, during a survival situation, treatment of well water is recommended. The need to filter well water prior to treatment is not as important unless debris is drawn up from the well or the well is open to surface contamination.

It is worth mentioning that it is very difficult to remove giardia cysts from contaminated water. To be sure that these parasites are removed, the water must be boiled to kill the cysts or filtered to less than 1micron to remove the cysts. Chlorine does not have any significant effect on giardia cysts. Giardia can be present in the fecal matter of dogs, cats, beavers, cows, and sheep. Infection with giardia causes “beaver fever” in humans.

Also, one should note that ingesting water with chlorine levels above 4ppm can do damage to the digestive system up to the point of death depending on the level of chlorine ingested; therefore it is absolutely critical to be able to test the level of chlorine present in the water before drinking!!

Anyone curious about studying water treatment more in depth can visit www.usabluebook.com for some very good self-training and reference materials on all levels of water treatment.

Regards, – Drew in Thailand

 

Dear James,

I have only just rediscovered your blog last night and I am now soaking it up like a sponge.

I’d like to be the “someone with a chemistry degree” to respond to our brother in Christ, Chris’ information regarding use of pool chemicals for drinking water treatment, notably Sodium dichloro-s-triazinetrione. I am a degree qualified chemical engineer who has spent most of the past 15 years in selling industrial chemicals including for water treatment. One of my recent activities was packaging pool and spa chemicals.

The chemical name sodium dichloro-s-triazinetrione is also known as isocyanuric acid. Details of this chemical may be found at this link and at Wikipedia.

It is particularly effective as a water treatment chemical for sterilizing purposes due to its high effective chlorine % (typically >50%) and ease of use due to its powdered or tablet form; when compared with other chlorine sterilizing agents such as sodium or calcium hypochlorite. The other advantage of the powdered isocyanuric acid is that it remains stable over long periods of time provided that the powder is not exposed to moisture or excessive heat. The liquid hypochlorite solutions will lose their activity over any long period of time even when stored in closed drums simply by converting back to chlorine gas and caustic soda. Powdered calcium hypochlorite does not have this same problem provided it is also protected from heat, light and moisture. Liquid sodium hypochlorite (e.g. Clorox) has only 5.7% available chlorine, so more is required per gallon of water treated.

The toxicity of the isocyanuric acid is not 100% known though it is generally thought to be of low toxicity. This link gives details of toxicity studies completed to date .

Having packaged the product in its finely powdered form, one thing is clear – do not breath the dust as it will cause all kinds of acute (short term, intense) respiratory (breathing) problems. It literally feels like the air is being sucked out of your lungs.

There’s no doubt that the isocyanuric acid is more effective compared to hypochlorite in terms of gallons of water treated per pound of chemical used. I also know that the isocyanuric acid is way more expensive per pound to purchase – at least at the wholesale level. My preference would be to stick with hypochlorite since it’s a little safer to handle, more readily available (not every town has a pool and spa supply but almost every town has a supplier of Clorox brand bleach) and more well researched in terms of toxicity. I’m also concerned whenever I see chemical compounds that have “cyan” and “uric” as part of the chemical structure. Under the right conditions this chemical could break down to form hydrogen cyanide (HCN) as a decomposition product – toxic to humans as well as microbes in water.

It should also be noted that any individual or entity manufacturing or repackaging chemicals for sterilization or disinfection purposes must be registered with the [US] Federal EPA as a pesticide manufacturer. Retail pool and spa outlets would be exempt from this requirement as they are retailing products that should already comply with this. Consumers should inspect all packaging to look for a federal EPA registration number for any product that has a claim of disinfection. My bottle of Clorox clearly shows the ingredients and also the EPA Reg No 5813-50.

Your readers should also consider hydrogen peroxide as a disinfectant, since its decomposition products are water and oxygen, though it also has problems with long term storage as it will decompose when exposed to moisture, heat and light. Other methods for disinfecting water include chlorine dioxide and ozone (small equipment systems can be purchased to make these and directly inject into the water being treated). Ozone injection is often used in bottled water filling operations for rinsing bottles and also for the water itself, as it decomposes back into oxygen in a few hours and adds no taste to the water once the ozone has depleted. Ozone can’t be stored and you need electricity (probably > 1,500 watts) to run an ozone generator.

As a general rule, I always prefer from a survival perspective to look at disinfection techniques that can be done using physical processes, rather than chemical processes. Filtration (Berkey and activated carbon), boiling and other physical processes can be used to treat water for drinking purposes and use of purification tablets as an additional safety precaution. No chemical disinfection process has shown itself to be 100% effective against all microbes and your readers should consider multiple processes for water treatment prior to use of chemicals.

As another rule of thumb, be careful when buying disinfecting chemicals from pool and spa outlets. The label ingredients are only required to declare the active ingredients that are responsible for the disinfection. You will often see “inert ingredients” listed on the label, sometimes not even these are listed. Typically in powdered and liquid pool chemicals there may be other ingredients included (such as anti-caking agents, stabilizers, surfactants) many of which you don’t want in your drinking water but are included in pool chemicals to enhance the performance in its intended application.

Sincerely, – Graham T.