Do it Yourself Timber Harvesting, by SMJ

Wood is one of the most readily available materials for homestead construction projects and is also an important fuel source for many of us. I’ve always loved forests and trees, so I drew on my experiences growing up in Alaska and my work in the timber industry in Western Washington to write this post. 

If you are lucky enough to own your own forest, I highly recommend the book A Landowner’s Guide to Managing Your Woods by Hansen/Seversen/Waterman.  This book will give you an excellent overview on how to keep your forest healthy and profitable, as well as giving you a broad overview of the logging industry. 

You are most likely already familiar with some logging tools. The most versatile and important tool is the axe, and you should have several. I prefer a double bit axe for felling and a single bit for limbing and pounding in wedges. Antique/junk stores can really help out here, as old axe heads of high quality can be had on the cheap often only needing to be sharpened and cleaned of rust. Supplement your limbing axe with several small hand saws.  A Peavey is another important tool that consists of a long lever with a hook for rolling logs. Again, you may be able to find one on the cheap at an antique store. Make sure to have a good supply of plastic felling wedges, which come in very handy when you are felling trees with a funny lean to them, as they take pressure off the saw when making the back cut. When using a chain saw, never substitute metal wedges for plastic or hardwood, as this could result in severe damage or injury if the chain makes contact with the metal. For moving logs, you will want a choker, a cable that can be wrapped around the end of a log to drag it from place to place. Additionally, you may want some extra cable, a come along, and few blocks or shivs.  For some larges species of tree to be cut by hand, you may need a spring board, which is a 2 x 4 with a steel spike at one end. Placed in a tree above the gnarled flare of the tree, it allows the lumberjack (or lumberjill) to make cuts with axes and saws in the softer, narrower part of the trunk. If you are going to be doing a lot of felling and bucking, you will want a logger’s tape measure to ensure you buck to just the right length. Otherwise, you can use an ordinary tape measure for the job. 

Every prepper should have at least one large crosscut saw, preferably a two-man. Some of the older saws are superior in quality and craftsmanship, but ones in good condition can be very expensive. There are kits available for sharpening crosscut saws, and you will need to get one of these as well. Sharpening crosscut saws was specialized work back when they were in wide use, and it is a skill I have not mastered. Youtube has a few excellent videos on the step by step process for this, but I think the best way to really learn is to find someone who is willing to teach you. Another tip to make your lumberjacking easier: If you look at photographs of the old time lumberjacks with their “whips of misery,” you will often see what looks like a whiskey bottle off to the side. These bottles were filled with the oil used to lubricate the saw to make cutting through large trees easier. 

After you’ve cut a few trees by hand, you will think of a chainsaw as your best friend. I’ve always been a skeptical about keeping machines running post TEOTWAWKI without the benefit of substantial stockpiles of fuel, lubricants, and extra parts which most of us can’t afford. The one machine I make an exception for is the chainsaw. There is no power tool more versatile to the homesteader. Besides its obvious use for felling and bucking logs, it makes log construction a much easier task. Post-TEOTWAWKI, I believe that anyone with a reliable chainsaw and a good stockpile of premium gasoline, 2 cycle oil, bar oil, chains and spare parts will be able to trade their services for a high price. In one afternoon, a man with a chain saw can do the work work that 24 men with crosscut saws did in a day. When electricity is unavailable, the chainsaw can be pressed into use for carpentry projects as well. Of course, keeping a low profile may make using a gas powered saw unacceptable, so always have the much quieter crosscut saw as a backup. 

Although there are many brands of chainsaw, Stihl and Husqvarna are the only two that I trust. Both of these brands have saws at the lower end of the price range that are intended for the suburban home owner market. Avoid these and choose a saw that is professional grade. The Stihl Farm Boss is a good choice for many people. It is a reliable saw, big enough for most tasks that a homesteader has to take on, but light enough that it can be used by smaller folks. In keeping with the “two is one” mantra, I recommend that you have multiple chainsaws of the same model, as well as spare parts.  

With a little maintenance, you can keep a quality saw running correctly with minimal problems. The most important preventative maintenance you can do is cleaning the air filter often. Remove the filter and use an air hose to clean it out from the inside and remove the junk that it accumulates. If you don’t have access to an air hose, you can use a can of compressed air duster for electronics. Use quality 2 cycle oil, this is definitely one place not to skimp, ideally from the saw’s manufacturer. For bar oil, you might be able to find cheap stuff at Wal-Mart or the like. Some folks I know use old motor oil for bar oil. This is not a good idea because the viscosity is different from real bar oil, and may damage your bar. Additionally, bar oil is biodegradable, which will help ensure the health of your forest. Some important spare parts to keep around are extra bars, air filters, chain sprockets, and a cylinder replacement kit. You will need lots of extra chain, which can be purchased in bulk rolls from Bailey’s, an online logging supply store. 

For safety equipment, a hard hat, Kevlar chainsaw safety chaps, eye and ear protection, and boots with excellent ankle support are musts. If you are going to be doing a lot of logging, you will also want a pair of caulks (pronounced ‘corks’), which are spiked boots for walking on slippery logs and soft hillsides. 

An important thing to understand is that felling trees is the easiest part of the job. You make your cuts at the butt end of the tree, and gravity does the rest. Moving a tree that weighs several tons once it is on the ground is much more difficult. For the logger working without the benefit of heavy equipment, felling timber in exactly the right place can mean the difference between successfully harvesting the tree and leaving it on the ground to rot because you are unable to move it. The best resource for learning about safe felling is a booklet from the State of Oregon entitled “Fallers Logging Safety,” available free as a PDF online. Follow safety procedures and stay within your skill level. Nothing can replace hands on experience, and I can’t emphasize the importance of proper falling technique enough. Seek out real experts who will teach you the safe, correct procedures for felling so that you can develop good habits (as with many aspects in life, people who tell you they are experts are often anything but).  

Hand logging is the art of moving timber to the mode of transport with human power. Old time lumberjacks would typically work a hill side from the bottom to the top. Trees would be felled across the hill, limbed, and the rolled downhill to the stream, sea, road, or railroad by lumberjacks using peaveys. Sometimes, trees would be felled down the hill on top of several small logs laid perpendicular to the larger tree. The log could then be skidded down the hill on a path made of these smaller logs. Moving large logs uphill is going to be nearly impossible, so make sure you always fell trees into the best position for being moved. 

The sheer difficulty of moving large logs without heavy equipment may necessitate the adoption of building techniques that use shorter, smaller pieces of timber. My friend and former employer lived on the tree line in the mountains of Alaska where most of the timber was on the scrawny side. Never the less, he was able to build a sturdy log cabin with spruce logs that he cut to lengths of  6’ to 12’. If you live in an area with a good snowfall, winter can be the best time to harvest timber, as logs are much easier to drag across the spring’s firm snow pack than the summer’s uneven forest floor. A snow machine (called a snowmobile by you lower 48ers) is excellent for winter timber harvest because they can get to areas inaccessible by wheeled vehicles. A timber sledge for a snow machine is easily constructed by using two long 2x6s as runners, allowing you to haul long logs for cabin ridgepoles and larger structures. Another reason that winter is an ideal time for harvesting timber is that the sap will all be in the roots, meaning there will be less moisture content in the wood, always a consideration for firewood. Spruce and Douglas Fir harvested for cabin logs in the winter will be perfect for peeling in the spring. Often the bark can be removed in large strips using nothing but a hatchet. 

During summer months, you can use trucks and ATVs to harvest timber, vehicles with a winch being especially useful. Using a choker, logs can be dragged out of the woods to the road or trail so that you can pull them to where they are needed. The problem with this is that you will be restricted to only those areas accessible roads and trails. Another primitive way to move timber is with draft animals, giving you a much better option for those hard to reach timber stands. I think for any sort of large scale post-TEOTWAWKI logging, this is going to be the only way to get any real logging done unless fossil fuels are still available. Without machinery and only human power, you will reduced to using only the smallest logs, greatly diminishing the size of structures that can be built. An Alaska mill another possible solution to the problem of moving timber without heavy equipment.This device uses two chainsaws to form a primitive sawmill. With one of these, you can rip felled trees into lumber while still in the woods, allowing you to avoid moving large logs. 

On a closing note, my favorite story from the Hebrew scriptures has always been the story of Gideon, one of Israel’s judges. It is a story about faith versus doubt, the importance of watchfulness, and God giving victory to the righteous in the face of overwhelming odds. While doing some research the other day, I was interested to learn that Gideon in Hebrew means “destroyer,” “mighty warrior,” and also “a faller of great trees.” Happy cutting, and stay safe in the woods.       



Prepping is Investing, by Michael W.

Preppers get painted is crazy doomsday people, sitting around waiting for the world to end, disappointed when it doesn’t.  I think National Geographic has done a disservice to prepping with their show.  The people on the show explain “what” they are preparing for.  To many, their reasons are crazy.  To me, some of the reasons are crazy.  I think it’s important to make it clear that it’s not about a specific event or cause.  It’s about planning for the future and protecting yourself.  Does it really matter if an EMP, financial collapse, or natural disaster disrupts your basic necessities?  What it comes down to is that you need to provide for your own essentials and survival.

Being a prepper is planning for your future, just like investing. When you invest for your retirement, you know you need to diversify your portfolio. You buy stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and gold. You do this because you need to spread your risk. You buy some things that are risky, that you hope will rise in value (stocks), and you buy things with certain intrinsic value that will not decrease (gold). Prepping should be added to your retirement portfolio too.

If you look at the big picture of the economy and the world, you invest your money in the stock market and retirement funds hoping they gain value, and now, hoping they will still be there when you retire. I think it is safe to say there is no guarantee that these assets will be there in the future. With the state of our entitlement programs and Social Security, they will run out of money. What then? Could the government take private assets such as investments? I think there is a chance. It would be easy for the government to say, “We are confiscating everyone’s investments and savings to fund Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. In doing this, everyone will now be eligible for these benefits.” The things that you have based your future security and comfort on, have just been taken. Now you are waiting in lines to get your rations because you didn’t prepare.  Like any investment you need to evaluate it based on your situation and beliefs.  Maybe you are an optimist and only want to store enough for a short term emergency and wait until the government is able to come in to help.  This would be like a Hurricane Katrina situation.  Just enough to survive the rough period, then get help from the government.

Now there is some risk that if it gets that bad, the government could say, “You are only allowed to have 1 month of food and 20 gallons of water saved. Give me your extra 3 months of food and 100 gallons of water.” But this is much more difficult than just confiscating your money. So look at prepping as part of your retirement portfolio, and start investing in it.
Just as you would set aside a certain percentage of your income for retirement, choose an amount to set aside for prepping.  It doesn’t have to be a lot, just prioritize your spending. Food and water first, then purchase the items appropriate for you.  But also think about what others might want; such as alcohol and tobacco.  Maybe you have moral objections to either, but there are many who don’t, and many who will want those items.  Think about the Great Depression and Prohibition.  Those with alcohol did pretty well.

The physical items you buy to be prepared can also be handed down from generation to generation.  Now, I know that not everything will last.  But if that can of green beans has been in your basement for 25 years, are you going to throw it away?  Probably not.  You will keep it and eat it when the times comes.  It may not taste the best, but it probably won’t kill you.  Your guns, tools, certain foods, bags, tents, etc. can be handed down from too.  There is the potential for them to greatly increase in value as well.  What if the sale of certain guns becomes prohibited?  What could your gun be worth then?  It can be left to your kids, like your investments could, but it would be tax free and provide for their future better than money.  It is also important to teach your kids the importance of prepping.  If they don’t value it and invest their own time in it, what you leave to them could be wasted.

Just like your finances and investments, your preps need to be protected.  Where do you keep your supplies?  Are they where guests can see them?  What would happen if your house was lost?  The FDIC insures your assets at a bank up to $250,000, so you shouldn’t keep more money in one bank than that limit, or it could be lost.  The same is true for your supplies.  This is where your network could be a great advantage.  Try to diversify your supplies and don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

I’m a 30-something civil engineer.  Like many, I’ve never needed to survive “on my own.”  I’m not a survivalist.  I don’t go out into the woods for weeks and live alone and practice.  I have a family; I don’t have time for those things.  So my prepping portfolio is different than someone in a different situation.
Once your start prepping, it becomes its own portfolio. You have:

  • Physical assets/supplies.  These are the things you buy at the store and save.  Food, medicine, water, equipment, guns, ammunition.
  • Skills.  Skills are particular abilities you have.  You can have skills without knowledge, and knowledge without skills.  As an engineer, I can design a weld to meet a required shear stress.  That doesn’t mean that I could actually complete the weld myself.  People with a skill and no knowledge compensate by “over-designing.”  Look at medieval buildings.  They didn’t understand the math behind what they built, they just built the hell out of it, and things are still standing today.
  • Knowledge.  See above.  You compensate for your lack of skills by doing things “the hard way.”  You don’t know the “tricks of the trade.”
  • Resources.  These are the people, skills, and knowledge that you will have at your disposal.  If things get really bad, we will have to work in small communities.  There’s no way around it.  You can not possess every skill and resource you need to survive.  You may come close, but there will always be something you are lacking.  You need to know people and have a network.

Take a look at your prepping portfolio and evaluate it.  Could you buy more supplies to compensate for a lack of skills?  Could you study and read more to invest more in your knowledge?  

Think back to when you teachers or parents said “everyone has something they are good at.”  Find that thing, and make it an asset.  You may not think it’s important, but I guarantee someone will find it important.  For an example, I’ve designed water treatment systems.  I can determine alum dosing, settlement time, and contact time for disinfection.  I’ve designed septic systems.  I’ve designed dams.  That knowledge may seem trivial when everything is fine, but when TSHTF, they could be pretty valuable.  So I would rate the knowledge section of my portfolio pretty high.  But I’m lacking in some of the skills.  I’ve never had to build those things.  I’ve never been in a survival situation.  I don’t know how to farm.  Objectively evaluate your portfolio.
I’ve read a lot of disparaging comments about “armchair preppers.”  “They just go online, buy some dehydrated food, and say they are preppers.”  So what?  Maybe that’s all they can do.  I think that should be encouraged.  Those people, “armchair preppers,” have many more supplies in their portfolio.  Someone who has skills, but limited money, should include this armchair prepper in their network of resources.  There are factors which will affect your ability to prepare:

  • Where you live.  If you live in an apartment in the city, how many 55-gallon barrels of water will you be able to store?  Are you allowed to own a handgun?  An AR-15?  If you live in a rural area, how many houses are near you?  Five within a 50-mile radius?  Where is the doctor? veterinarian? store?  You might be limited to only getting supplies over the Internet if you live in a remote area.
  • Physical abilities.  You could be limited by your age, illness, or handicap.
  • Finances.  Maybe you are a great craftsman, but you don’t have much money to buy supplies.

Get creative.  Look at canning food, for instance.  You don’t have to have a garden to can food.  One weekend, prepare a lot of frozen green beans.  Then can them.  It may seem a little pointless, but you’ve just learned how to can your own food.  A hobby like home beer brewing is a great example.  Many do it and the skills could be very useful.
The point is don’t underestimate yourself.  Look at your talents and knowledge differently. Don’t get discouraged by an elitist prepper who rants on a web site about “armchair preppers.”  They could be the MacGyver of prepping, but they won’t have all the skills, supplies, and knowledge needed to accomplish all that is necessary.

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared at the Georgia Preppers blog site.



Letter Re: Learning About Food Safety

Jim,
That was a nice submission by Tom T., but with a couple of items that aren’t completely wrong but aren’t entirely correct – or that can at least be interpreted incorrectly.  First,  he said, “The last way to prevent food borne illness is to cook the food to the proper temp.  Cooking to proper temperatures eliminates the threat of these harmful pathogens… Reheating to 165 degrees ensures that the bacteria are killed and the food has become safe to eat.” 

Cooking food may eliminate bacteria but it doesn’t destroy all bacterial toxins (the stuff that  actually makes you sick).  Staph aureus, for example, can produce a toxin that will withstand cooking and some pasteurization processes.  This means that if you store food in the temperature danger zone Tom mentioned, then even if it is cooked it might still be unsafe.

The second was a suggestion that dented cans are unsafe.  As long as a can isn’t dented on a seam (top, bottom or welded side seam) it’s fine.   In truth, most cans with minor dents in the areas mentioned are probably fine.  But “they” suggest discarding them, which is probably the wiser choice if there isn’t decent medical care available and for children, the elderly and those who are already weakened or sick. Best, – Matt R.



Letter Re: Secure Signals for a Survivalist

Hi Jim,
While reading the article “Secure Signals for a Survivalist,” by Fred J., I keyed on his reference to the lightening-up the good old USGI angle head flashlight.
 
As far as lightening-up one of these, I think I have most people beat. My first upgrade for mine was in replacing the old-fashioned incandescent bulb with an LED bulb upgrade. They’re pretty common now, as the Army issue flashlight uses a standard flashlight bulb. That made the flashlight produce literally ten times as much light.
 
The second upgrade was created by sheer luck. In an infant rocker we were keeping for some relatives at our house, I discovered adapters for AA to a D-size cells, allowing you to use AA batteries in a D cell battery compartment! However, since I already had the LED upgrade in my flashlights, I installed these in both of them, and now my Vietnam-era USGI flashlights weigh virtually nothing, producing the same powerful amount of LED light!
 
PS: Hang on to those old incandescent bulbs, as an EMP/CME-rugged backup. They will also still work with the AAs! – Snuffy



Economics and Investing:

Here comes more monetization: Fed Undertakes QE3 With $40 Billion Monthly MBS Purchases. JWR’s Comment: Oh great, Mortgage Backed Securities derivatives. Your tax dollars at work, buying up dodgy debt.

Reader G.A.H. was the first of several readers to mention an interesting parallel to the opening chapter of my first novel, Patriots: Germany Says ‘Great Uncertainty’ About US Debt. Here is the proverbial “life imitates art” quote: “German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble questioned on Tuesday how the United States could deal with its high levels of government debt after November’s presidential election. In private, German officials often express concern about U.S. debt levels and the inability of politicians there to reach a consensus on how to reduce it, but Schaeuble’s public remarks underscore the extent of the worries in Germany.”

B.B. sent: Mark Levin: With 19% actual unemployment we are in a depression. And FDR got reelected with high unemployment too

RBS sent: Metal theft suspect caught after truck is stuck

Items from The Economatrix:

US Stock Market Investors Set Up To Be Fleeced, Triple Top?

Oil Drops From 3-Week High On US Fed Meeting, Saudi Arabia

Those Jobless Numbers Are Even Worse Than They Look

Consumer Credit Falls Unexpectedly In July



Odds ‘n Sods:

News from Korea: New Swine Flu Virus Shows Lethal Signs. (A hat tip to Tim P. for the link.)

   o o o

H.L. suggested this at The Daily Crux: How to grow an inconspicuous garden… no matter where you live

   o o o

Ready Made Resources is having a special on genuine full mil-spec AN/PVS-14 Gen 3+ night vision scopes. For a limited time they are offering these “grade A” scopes with a free Picatinny rail weapons mount, free shutter eyepiece and free shipping. As usual, these include aa head mount and carry case . These have a five year warranty and free annual maintenance for five years. Normally $3,895, these are on sale for $2,795 with free shipping.

   o o o

F.G. liked the essay Power to the Parasites by Karen De Coster.

   o o o

Stephen M. forwarded this: GHEI: ATF’s latest gun grab–Agency reduces due process for seizing firearms



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“If you want to be safe in life, move to places that the government can’t be bothered to provide you help in. These places tend to be clean, safe, prosperous, healthy and sane. At least until the government finds out that evil monoculturalists are trying to live this way without them. They insist that areas like this undergo improvamentation as soon as they can afford to get to them.” – Texas Arcane



Notes from JWR:

September 13th is the birthday of Salva Kiir Mayardit, the President of the fledgling nation of South Sudan. Kiir was born in 1951. Please pray for President Kiir and for the people of South Sudan.

Today we present another two entries for Round 42 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 42 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Learning About Food Safety, by Tom T.

I have heard many preppers talk of the massive food supply that they have.  Some have months supply.  While others have a year plus of food.  All of this food will do no good if it isn’t prepared safely.  I have been in the food industry for twenty plus years.  In that time we have all seen the news of the mass explosion of food borne illnesses.  We have seen the recalls of thousands of pounds of beef and the closure of several chains of restaurants.  In a SHTF scenario I doubt we will be living in the best of conditions and using commercial ovens and ranges.  I doubt we would even have an electric George Foreman grill.  Instead we will be cooking old school, by fire or some type of portable camping propane stove.  We could be preparing our meals in the foot hills of the mountains or some dirty ransacked dwelling that should be condemned.  Any way you slice it, no matter where we cook we must prepare our food safely.  According to the CDC every year 76 million people are infected with some type of food poisoning in the U.S. alone.  Of those 5,000 people die every year to these related symptoms.  The most affected are the young, the old and the ones with compromised immune systems.  Where do these illnesses come from? I’m glad you asked. Food borne illness comes from drinking beverages or eating food that is contaminated with bacteria, parasites or viruses.   Food borne illnesses have a variety of symptoms.  These symptoms include upset stomach, diarrhea, fever, confusion, abdominal cramps, dehydration and even death.  One or more of these symptoms could be a death sentence in a SHTF scenario.  With the lack of medications and diagnosis from a doctor you could be in serious trouble.  Imagine if you cooked a wild game bird for dinner and your entire family got ill.  Who would tend to them?  Who would continue the daily chores needed to survive?  Who will protect them from invaders?  It is not a pretty thought. The treatment to remedy most of the symptoms is to drink plenty of fluids and keep your electrolytes up and wait it out for a few days. However, sometimes dialysis or a blood transfusion is needed.  Kinda tough to do in a SHTF world unless you are a skilled doctor with access to the equipment needed. Here is a list of some of the most common types of pathogens that cause food poisoning:

Salmonella -caused by under cooked poultry or eggs.  The symptoms are abdominal pain, diarrhea, vomiting and nausea.
E coli-caused by under cooked meats. Symptoms are bloody diarrhea, vomiting, nausea and possible death.
Botulinum-caused by improperly canned goods, smoked or salted fish.  The symptoms are double vision, inability to swallow, inability to breath, difficulty speaking.
Vulnificus- caused by raw and undercooked shell fish. The symptoms are chills, fever and collapse.
Shigella and Staphylococcus-cause raw foods, unpasteurized milk and dairy products.  The symptoms are nausea, fever, abdominal cramping and diarrhea.
 
First lets talk about where food borne illness comes from.  Food borne illness comes from a variety of things.  It can occur in produce during the growing, harvesting, processing, storing, shipping or preparation.  In raw meat it can occur in the slaughter of the animal.  It can occur in eggs as well.  In fact one in every 10,000 eggs contains Salmonella.  It can also come from the contaminated fertilizer or the water that is used to grow the food.  Food can also become inedible by being left out for to long in warm temperatures. This is what we call the food danger zone.  The food danger zone is the temperature of food between 40 and 140 degrees.  In these danger zones bacteria multiplies rapidly.  In two hours you could be eating a BFD (bacteria filled dish).  The contamination is almost impossible to detect because it doesn’t produce an odor nor does it change the color or texture of the food.  There are several ways to prevent this.  The first is to control the time and temperature which the food is in the danger zone temps.  If food starts to enter the danger zone try to bring the temperature down to the safe level ASAP, below 40 degrees. Second is to sanitize the area, your hands and utensils you are using. 

Bleach is a great cheap sanitizer. a single cap full can go a long way to killing harmful bacteria.  Never touch a raw product and then a cooked product. This can cause cross-contamination.  Always sanitize when switching to different food  products and utensils.  Latex or vinyl gloves are a great item to put in your bug out bag.  The last way to prevent food borne illness is to cook the food to the proper temp.  Cooking to proper temperatures eliminates the threat of these harmful pathogens.  The easiest way to test for the correct temp is a food thermometer.  These can be picked up just about anywhere for $8-$15.  I must advise that getting a non digital one would be best unless you have a stock pile of batteries for it.  Who knows how hard it could be to find batteries in the SHTF world. 

One thing about food thermometers they must be calibrated regularly, and whenever you drop them.  It is very easy to do, no tools required.  Either use the ice and water method or the boiling water method.  The ice method is the quickest and easiest.  The ice method is get a cup of room temp water and ice. Stir very well.  Just as the ice begins to melt place your thermometer in the water. the water should cover the small dimple in the rod. (that is the actual temperature reader).  Let it stand for 30 seconds or until the dial stops moving.  Your thermometer should read 32 degrees.  If it does not turn the nut at the base until it reads 32 degrees. Don’t worry it comes with the tool to do it.  It is the sheath itself. The boil method is virtually the same.  Bring water to a rolling boil place the thermometer into the water for thirty seconds or until the dial stops moving.  It should read 212 degrees.  If not, then adjust the nut.  In either case be sure not to touch the container the water is in as you will get a false reading.  If you forget how to do these simple steps, the directions will be on the box of the thermometer and it literally takes 30 seconds.  Next, always reheat food to at least 165 degrees.  Reheating to 165 degrees ensures that the bacteria are killed and the food has become safe to eat.  When you are done eating place left-overs in a shallow pan and cool as quickly as possible.  Stir if it is necessary.  If a fridge or cooler is not available try using an ice cold creek.  The water will lower the temp of the food quickly.  In the food industry we use an ice bath.  This is fifty percent ice and fifty percent water.  It works rather well.   

Here is the proper cooking temps for various food products.
beef, pork and veal=160
turkey and poultry=165
seafood=145
eggs cook until yolk and whites are firm

Always keep raw foods separate from cooked foods.  The juices from the raw foods can contain harmful organisms that can ruin and contaminate all of your survival food.  If you do have a way to store food, store it like this from top to bottom.

1. Cooked foods
2. Fruits and vegetables
3. Fish and seafood
4. Beef and pork
5. Ground beef
6. Poultry. 

The reason it is stored like this is do to the various degrees you cook these items to make it a safe eating experience.  You can eat a med rare stake but not a med rare chicken leg.  Chicken needs to be cooked to a higher temp then beef to kill all of the organisms. If it was stored backwards chicken blood gets on the beef.  you would make your steak med rare and not kill the chicken bacteria and could get very ill.

In the event of a power outage situation keep all refrigerators and freezers closed.  A closed refrigerator has about 4 hours of cold in it.  A freezer has about 48 hours of cold if it is full.  If it is half full combine all of the food together so that it will remain colder longer.  A half full freezer only has 24 hours of coldness.   Open the doors only when necessary.  If the food reaches the danger zone either cook it or discard it.  You or your family’s health is not worth the risk. If you end up scrounging for  food in a post SHTF world there are a few things to look for to ensure that what you gather is not contaminated.  Always go for the commercially packed food if it is available(as they are held to higher standards then mom and pop are).  Any canned good with broken seams, dents or leaks is ruined. Move on and don’t bother.  Any crack in a jar is just as dangerous and can contain harmful bacteria.  All items that are found should be kept in it’s container and immersed in a solution of bleach (2 teaspoons of chlorine bleach per quart of water) for fifteen minutes.  Make sure that the water is room temp. Regardless if the SHTF or not (I pray to god not), we must all be aware of how to prepare our meals safely and soundly. Proper sanitation,cleanliness and cooking procedures affect each and everyone of us everyday. In a TEOTWAWKI situation this is even more so. Everyday our lives and those we love depends on proper food preparation. For more info on food safety please visit www.cdc.gov  www.fda.gov  www.foodsafety.gov They have a vast selection of information on this topic.  The statistics used here were obtained from these sites.



Lessons From Storms At Sea, by Richard S.

I spent nearly ten years in the Coast Guard and the US Navy before injuries suffered in the line of duty forced my retirement, this is but one experience in my life that forced me to be a better man and come to grips with the fragile mortality of man and just how precious the gift of life really is. These are the teachings that have prepared me for what is coming. The horizon darkens more every day and the storm approaches. Are we prepared for the coming storm, can we weather it out. I live on 80 acres in south eastern Oregon and have for many years been preparing for what is coming. Heirloom seeds, stocks of dry goods, knowledge in man & animal trapping, combat both bush and open ground plus survival skills, canning, jerky making, smoking meats, fishing and hunting skills. I am nearly 60 years of age and I am trying to get a community of like minded people together for a community that is determined to survive no matter how bad it gets.
 
Survival at sea:  The worst storm I have ever seen!
     
After six years in the United States Coast Guard and having been stationed at many small boat rescue stations in the 1st Coast Guard District of Northern New England from Jonesport, Maine to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, New Bedford, Massachusetts, Race Point Small Boat Station, Cape Cod, Massachusetts & serving the crews of Cleveland Ledge Light House near Buzzards Bay Massachusetts. I had the distinct honor of serving with some extraordinarily selfless and at times insanely brave individuals while participating in 300 plus rescues at sea. After all the times involved in high risk rescue operations at sea I thought I had a pretty good idea of the worst weather the oceans of the world could offer.
 
In the summer of 1976 while aboard the United States Coast Guard Cutter Bibb, WHEC 31 I was also exposed to a near Hurricane, (hurricane force winds are 72 plus miles per hour) in the Bermuda Triangle. The seas raged at 35 to 45 feet for 24 hours and it was estimated at 65 feet for 6 to 8 hours. The storm lasted for a day and a half with winds in excess of 114 miles per hour. The Bibb was an old girl with 34 years active sea service to her credits. She was originally built in the early 1930s as a Sub-chaser in preparation for a war that inevitably spanned the entire globe. She suffered some damaged but got the entire crew back to Corpus Christi , Texas for repairs without any loss of life. This was my baptism by fire as for deep water storms at sea; and I had thought it had prepared me for what ever nature could throw my way, my oh my how I was ever so mistaken;   
 
It is midnight and the weather has turned foul. Our ship is anchored in channel on the side nearest to the city of Hong Kong and has been for three days. Dozens of freighters and tankers lie off shore waiting to either take on cargo or off load their cargo before heading off to some distant port unknown to the rest of us. The mighty storm has been building power for weeks in the far reaches of the South Pacific around the Solomon Islands . The warning came from Pacific Fleet Headquarters in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii in conjunction with the Naval Offices of Her Majesty’s Royal Navy, Hong Kong, China. The Captain says, “We must weigh anchor and head for the open waters of the South China Sea. There is no way we will be able to maneuver in the tight channel waters of the bay between the mainland of China and the Island home of Hong Kong .”
 
The Engine Room is firing up the boilers and making steam to get under way. All hands have been recalled from Liberty in an attempt to save the ship. Deck hands are washing the mud off the anchor chain with fire hoses as the anchor is hauled aboard. The radars are checked as well as the radios and the harbor master’s boat ties up to the starboard side. A Harbor Pilot will take the fat girl out of the channel then he will return Command to the Captain. The Officer of the Deck turns and tells the Captain, “All bells answering; Engine Rooms answers ready to get under way, Sir.”
 
He replies, “Very well, all ahead 1/3.”
 
From there the Harbor Pilot is in control as he weaves a path between tiny islands and some of the largest vessels to ever sail the open seas of the world while they themselves made their preparations for departure. Military ships come first in the line of succession in departure under duress, and this was certainly a case of duress. Military Ships are always first because they carry so much fuel and a lot explosives; which inherently could make a very bad situation even worse. All the bigger ships left Hong Kong to weather out the storm at sea. While some of the smaller ones decided that they could make for the small islands and seek protection by ducking in behind them and riding out the storm. Unfortunately they were wrong.
 
This storm is big, really big; about 300,000 square miles and the winds are incredible. Worst of all it is on a collision course with the harbor of Hong Kong which is home to the floating city of 100,000 + just a few miles up river. A human being would stand no chance if exposed to the unbelievable ferocity of these winds. They would be swept off the deck immediately even if they were tied down. In fact these winds are so powerful that they are actually capable of breaking stanchions and davits from the welds that attach them to the decks. Slowly the big girl known as the Wicked Witch of the West gets under way. The clanking of the anchor chain echoes through the hull and we all know what lies ahead. Danger, the worst danger a ship of this type can face. Liquid cargos are highly unstable in high seas. Liquids contained within a vessel tend to move with the seas and gain in momentum within the hull and that poses a threat to the integrity of the hull and the crew.
 
Time passes slowly as we head into open waters and begin to head north. It is a long way to Pearl Harbor from Hong Kong and we have to remain in front of this storm all the way or it is pretty much a foregone conclusion as to where we will make or next landfall. The running joke aboard ships is that, “Land is never more than 12 miles away, but that is 12 miles straight down.” As impossible as it may seem the storm is still building in its intensity as it approaches the Philippines . It makes landfall and thousands are drowned and entire villages swept away on the low-lying portions of the Island Nation.
 
We are now faced with being over taken by the storm; … my tired burning eyes strain and my sweating hands ache. I fiercely grip the wheel to keep my balance and stare into the raging blackness of the storm. Winds in excess of 165 nautical miles per hour rip at the ship. The screams and howls of the wind as it passes through the rigging’s chill the blood. Big and lethargic, she lies hard over and hangs for a split second. I look behind me at the inclinometer, 40 degrees starboard list. I draw a sharp breath and hold it. My eyes flare wide open. Even the Old-man knows we are at her limits. At 42 degrees she will go over, capsized. 
     
The seas relentlessly slamming against the superstructure stun the 42,000 ton Auxiliary Oiler Replenishment ship the U. S. S. Wichita. For a split second, what seems like forever to her crew. She stops dead in the water, each 65 foot wall of seawater, weighing in at some million tons of wind-swept Pacific Ocean crashes against the bridge. Solid water rolls off the bridge wings cascading down the side of the ship along the Weather Deck and returns to the black and white angry monster known as a typhoon. Courage is the key to surviving in a typhoon, if one man panics the ship could be lost at sea with all hands.
 
As each wave slams against the ship and she shudders and creaks, men sit in tense silence. Their faces knotted with deep concern, chills run up the spine. Thoughts of home and prayers to their loving God. Even the old timers look blankly at the over head and wonder is she going to break up? Is this the last time I will think of my Wife, my children, or my parents. Will they find my body and send it home? Then all hands brace for another fall into the trough of these merciless seas. 689 feet of ship, 13 million gallons of diesel and jet fuel, 800 tons of food and explosives, and of course the 381 souls contained within the hull fall helplessly and slam against the flat bottom of the trough between the waves.
 
The crashing thunder of the waves is near deafening, the ship twists and groans; she sidles her way up from beneath the wave only to be savagely assaulted by the next wave in an endless sea of waves. Day after day we creep along, battered and exhausted the crew tries desperately to keep their spirits up. And sometimes, we actually broke free for a few hours and a hot meal was served. Then we are overtaken by this super storm that now covers nearly a half a million square miles of empty ocean, and every man aboard makes his peace with God.
 
“Lord God almighty, if I get out of this alive I swear I will be a better man, I will be a better Father to my children. Please God don’t let my life end this way.”

This is my way of telling you the story of the intensity in life of an every day sailor, that storm lasted for 25 days. My ship left Hong Kong and sailed for the Aleutian Islands of Alaska some 8,000 miles away to make good our escape. 12,000 people and more than a dozen ships were not as fortunate as the crew of the Wichita and I were. Without a doubt that was the longest and most intense month of my life.



Four Letters Re: Why I Hate Preppers

James,
Allen is right on about “arm chair” preppers. Many folks out there only talk the talk, without taking the walk.
 
Like Allen, I did not marry until my mid-40s also agreeing to live near a small community. The drive to my retreat is 42 miles to a fairly rural farm area when I grew up. My wife supports me wholeheartedly in this effort including participating where she can in learning new skills.
 
Over the last 8 years, I have been re-learning many of my boyhood skills critical to a rural lifestyle. It is amazing how much a person forgets over 30 years. I had many successes and just as many if not more failures. We are now just at the point where we can grow and preserve much of our food requirements. This is not an easy task!!
 
Along the way, my wife and daughter learned new skills along with me, including how to properly handle a weapon and became proficient in shooting to the point where it is an enjoyable family event.
 
I would point out, Allen C. does not take into account individual/public irrationality when disasters happen. While his examples may hold true during normal times, when the shtf all normalcy ceases to exist. Folks will do things without thinking or even any reason. Looting and hoarding will become the norm.
 
As far as the numbers go, he is missing the point. It really does not matter that 82% of the population or 90% will die within a couple of months/years from results of EMP.  The point is that large numbers of people will die creating new problems such as loss of expertise, sanitary issue from unburied corpses, etc…  I would think if even 10% of the population did not survive, it would be a major health issue. Bottom line is the people living would not be prepared to handle such a major event without prior planning and preparation. – George B. in Ohio

 

James,
I would like to bring a correction to Allen C.’s comment about the food supply in grocery stores. Just a couple of months ago my wife left the Northwest division on the largest grocery chain in the United States. She had worked in the food department for 15 years including several years in food department management. When she started her employment the company’s business model was no more than 3 days of food inventory on hand based on sales at that location. The current business model calls for food inventory on hand of 1.5 days based on current store sales. In 2009 near Christmas poor weather prevented the store from receiving deliveries for a few days. Without any kind of crisis or panic the store shelves were empty after less than two days. The store where she worked receives no less than four full 53′ trailers of inventory per day – unless they send more. This does not include product brought in by dozens of outside vendors seven days per week. This store was just one of several grocery stores serving a middle sized town of less than 75,000 people. I urge everyone to do what you can now to stock up on food staples with a long shelf life. When more difficult times come – and they are coming, you do not want to be compelled to make a rush to the store to try and buy what may be left. – Steve J.

 

Dear Sirs,
Normally I would be happy to let someone rant, get their frustrations off their chest and not feel it is necessary to address errors.  But, in the recent article by Allen C. there is a deeply flawed assessment of the grocery store inventory control that I believe needs to be corrected lest readers are led astray.

In basic principle, Mr. C. is correct regarding inventory turnover rates of the average grocery store.  Most financial assessments put the turnover rate at around 12, meaning that they keep roughly 1 month of their yearly revenue in inventory.  However, what Mr. C. fails to appreciate is the how the numbers break down.  Grocery stores don’t manage their inventory as a whole:  they manage each product individually based on the just-in-time [inventory control] premise to minimize their capital outlay.  What that means is that there is significant financial incentive for the store to keep on hand only enough inventory to get them through to the next delivery.  Modern shipping typically averages 3 days from distribution to point of sale, hence grocery stores typically look to maintain roughly 3 days inventory of their high turnover products.  Its not 3 days for all products, but 3 days for the highest turnover rate products.  What store wants to have excess days of a product when they sell 100 units a day.  Are they going to maintain 2,500 units in the store?  Of course not.

So how do these two numbers square up?   This is due to other business drivers that a store may face.  They cannot just maintain stock of commonly used items.  To attract customers to their store and provide one-stop shopping they need to inventory and maintain a wide range of rarely purchased items.  Even ignoring non-food items (cookware, bags, personal care, etc) one just needs to look at the snack food aisles.  How many different brands, flavors, and types of potato chips are kept in inventory?  Many of them only sell a couple bags a month.  This could lead a store to just have 1 bag of each on the shelf, but this is very poor promotion and the suppliers would not be happy.  They want their product to appear to be in demand so, through supply arrangements and deals, a grocery store is incentivized to maintain inventories of these specialty items far and above just-in-time inventory levels.  There are well over six months of inventory of many of these specialty products on the store shelves.  In fact many stores struggle with getting turnover rates of these items to be shorter than the shelf life and are often faced with disposing of expired goods.  This is why they have sales on certain items after all.  

Ironically, the in-demand, high use items tend to have the least inventory levels on hand.  These are often the items that appeal to the broadest customer base, like the most basic of food items.  For instance, busy stores will know exactly how many bags of flour they need to maintain from years of tracking data and experience.  It’s the low use items that radically skew the overall inventory numbers.  In a situation that disrupts delivery, the shelves of common items will empty in just a couple days even without panic buying.  What will be left are the bags of avocado-chili-fireball waffle cut potato chips and organic port-wine whole seed mustard, but even so this may only mean a dozen each for the total store customer base of hundreds or thousands.  Even with hundreds of these types of items, it’s not going to feed the populace for very long at all.

I can’t say if 3 days inventory is the best number to use for this type of consideration, but I hope I’ve clarified that it is most definitely not 25 days.  Anyone in storm-prone areas of the irrational mid-atlantic has already experienced this during winter storm alerts.  Milk, bread, and eggs quickly disappear entirely from the shelves.  This isn’t even panic buying.  This is just pre-buying for folks who are afraid they won’t be able to get to the store for a few days.  Even if there is other food on the shelves I shudder to think of the societal reaction when the milk and bread is gone and the next shipment time is unknown. ‘ Let them eat waffle chips’, isn’t going to go over too well I suspect.

I agree with Mr. C that many bits of accepted knowledge need to be critically assessed and re-assessed as needed, but in this instance his analysis is quite flawed.
 
Sincerely, – Mike P. 

 

I greatly enjoyed reading the letter forwarded by Allen C.  It mirrored many of my own thoughts, mostly not vocalized, that I have had about other “preppers.”  I do not like the generalization implied in the word, itself, for it establishes a bias either for or against a whole group of people who seem decidedly different.
 
It brought to mind the much-repeated phrase among preppers: “like-minded individuals.”  Now, having met face-to-face with a number of other people who are concerned about uncertain times and are preparing in one way or another for those eventualities, I found that huge differences exist in the ways of going about this task and the philosophies surrounding it.  Thus, to put out an advertisement to join “like-minded individuals” in the “prepper community” is, in my view, about like making the same exhortation to a group of professional football fans on the assumption that they are “like minded,”  when all they have done is to root for the same team that we do.
 
On the subject of paranoia, Allen repeats the oft-used phrase: “I wouldn’t be so paranoid if everyone wasn’t out to get me.”  This reminded me of a meeting I had in a public place with a few other local preppers whom I “met” on an online prepper network.  These were supposedly like-minded individuals, who, during the course of the meeting appealed to those present to provide their addresses, phone numbers, and email addresses for the purpose of networking, “early warning,”  passing the news, etc.  Of course, I found this proposal astoundingly foolish, and said so.  I was accused of being overly paranoid.  Are there degrees of paranoia?  Anyway, I refused to provide such information to complete strangers, and chalked down having talked myself into such a meeting of this kind to my own foolishness. There are few enough “like minded individuals” within a tightly knit family, or even in a pretty tight military unit, much less in the population at large.  People should dispense with the notion that such a fantasy exists.
 
Concerning Allen’s frustration with preppers being “know-it-alls,” this statement particularly rang true to me:  “Later the same evening suburban grandma is in a user group regurgitating a half digested piece of prepper knowledge she picked up on another web site without ever having to actually fight anyone, kill anything, or spend a week in the woods.”
This brought to mind the image of my teenaged grandson, who, while very bright and seemingly able to absorb any sort of material that he reads, or hears, or sees on TV, has a terrible habit, in my view, of saying “I know….” such-and-such.  I have repeatedly reminded him that he does not “know” anything, nor does anyone else, unless he or she has actually done it or experienced it.  Reading about, talking about, or listening to others who read about, talk about, or otherwise expound on any subject does not constitute a reason to say to oneself: “I know.”  There is only one way to “know,” in my opinion, at least, and that is to know by the experience of doing.  One does not know how to fell a tree, slice it up with a chain saw, haul it, split it, and stack it, much less burn it, unless one has done it.
 
And Allen’s comments further lead me into the frustration I have with preppers who are constantly writing on various blogs a presumption of what “will” happen under certain circumstances, such as a societal collapse.  Zombie biker gangs will roam the countryside, stores will be out of food in hours, gasoline will be unattainable, .22 caliber cartridges will be like gold, etc.  Some of these events might be likely to happen, of course, but for anyone to say beforehand, and in the absence of any evidence, whatsoever, that they “know” what will happen is ludicrous.  No one actually knows what will happen until it happens. Detractors have said “history repeats itself,” so we can take from history that we actually do know what will happen.  But we really can’t.  We know there is a likelihood of a similar event happening again, human nature being a constant through time, but we still do not know what “will” happen in a given event that takes place in the present times.  
 
In the popular literature, there is only one person whom I can say (because I haven’t read everything, to be sure) actually knows about what it’s like in an economic collapse.  He is Fernando Aquirre, who, in his book about the collapse in Argentina (2001-present), relates what he actually saw and did in that country during that collapse.  What we have in the American literature on the subject, as entertaining as it is to read, is fictional speculation.  Some of it substitutes well for instruction and even education, and reflects what appears to be very good research, but it is still fiction, causing one to caution oneself, once again, the “no one knows for sure what will happen.”  Examples of such works that I have read and enjoyed include the novels Patriots (Rawles), Lights Out (Crawford), One Second After (Forstchen), Holding Their Own (Joe Nobody), Apocalypse Law (Grit), Feathers on the Wings of Hate (Grit), Enemies Domestic and Foreign (Bracken trilogy), The Pulse (S. Williams), The Rift (W. Williams), American Apocalypse (Nova), Lucifer’s Hammer, (Niven and Pournelle), Ashfall (Mullen), Molon Labe (B. T. Party), The Old Man and the Wasteland (Cole), World Made by Hand (Kunstler), The Third Revolution (Lewis), Half Past Midnight (Brackett) and Dark Grid (Waldron), among a few others.  There are yet many that I haven’t read.  Yes, I do love reading these books.  But they cannot say, and do not purport to say, what will happen, as do so many whom we see writing on the blogs.  
 
Yet, in spite of our differences, we continue to prepare because it seems wise to do so, even though we are not really sure of anything in the future except more uncertainty.  However, I do feel that preparation is more of a lifelong challenge than one that can be accomplished in even a few years.  Some people have had a “survivalist” mindset since childhood, and so “prepping” is second nature to them.  As Allen (and my father) says, they don’t even call it that.   It just seems a way of life, indistinguishable from other often-practiced habits.
 
Further, Allen’s letter got me to thinking of a Persian proverb, which led me into thinking of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
 
“He who knows not and knows not that he knows not is a fool – shun him.
He who knows not and knows that he knows not is simple – teach him.
He who knows and knows not that he know is asleep – wake him.
He who knows and knows that he knows is wise – follow him.” – (Persian proverb).

Dunning-Kruger Effect:
According to studies published in 1999 by Dunning and Kruger, there is a difference between what we know and what we think we know. People are notoriously bad at rating their own competence at a whole variety of tasks.
 
Dunning and Kruger found that people who were not very good at a subject also tended to lack the skill to rate themselves at that subject. Such people often figured that the limited information they had about the subject was all there was to know, and that they were consequently more knowledgeable than the average. Hence we are skeptical when we read of so many “experts” on so many subjects on so many blogs.  Take, for example, the case of a “rifleman” who espouses that it is futile to learn for himself or to teach others how to hit targets at 500 yards, arguing that his 250 yard carbine (e.g. AK/AR) will do all that needs doing.  Well, the ignorance extant in such a statement is near to astounding.  Assuming that a majority of our foes are not riflemen, but carbine-men, would it not be wise to prepare to hit them outside of the maximum useful (lethal) range of their own weapons?  But raising such a point in public (Internet) conversation is akin to banging one’s head repeatedly against a brick wall and asking for a great argument, considering all of the opposing views on that subject.  There do seem to be a plethora of people who know not, and know not that they know not.  They might retort that I am one of them.
 
Dunning and Kruger also found that people who really were quite knowledgeable about a subject tended to underestimate their ability, perhaps because they knew enough to be aware of how much more there was to know.
Further, they refer to a “double curse” when interpreting their findings: People fail to grasp their own incompetence, precisely because they are so incompetent. And since, overcoming their incompetence would first require the ability to distinguish competence from incompetence, people get stuck in a vicious cycle.
But one need not be obsessed with Dunning and Kruger.  The same effect can be seen in other writings.  Perhaps a few preppers will read this before posting their next expert “knowledge” to a web blog.

Charles Darwin:  “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”

1 Corinthians 8:2,  King James Bible (Cambridge Ed.)
“And if any man think that he knoweth any thing, he knoweth nothing yet as he ought to know.”

Bertrand Russell: “One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.”.

Regards, – T.D.



Letter Re: Prepping with Fangs: Dogs for a Survivalist

Dear JWR:
I have read the previous thoughts on this and I see someone has mentioned several different breeds. I would like to add for those considering a dog to also consider Great Pyrenees. These dogs have the very thick double coats that protect them from attacks, are well known for their ability to take down bears and mountain lions when kept in packs, and are some of the best herd dogs on Earth. If you are wanting to breed them you will have to get the dogs about two years before you are expecting to have pups as generally giant breeds do not get pregnant before that time frame. I have a small amount of each chicken, rabbit, cattle, swine, goat, lamb, and cats and these dogs allow the “herd” to literally crawl all over them. Now these dogs will be much more inclined to bark. I happen to prefer the barking because it alerts me. Although this breed is large and intimidating, my dogs have never bitten anything. This breed is very independent and takes no training to teach them to guard. If you prefer a more obedient dog, Great Pyrenees may not be for you. I prefer them because they require no training, and work nonstop. There is little to no worry that they will get me sued. Mine do well in one of the warmest states in the country and are built for extreme colds also. The double coats allow them to thrive in either environment. They can be from 150 to 200 lbs full grown and do eat quite a bit. I keep my cost of feeding them down by giving them all the scraps from the household, and a gallon or more of fresh dairy milk each day. You will need to either teach them their boundaries by a regular schedule of walking the perimeter of the area you want them to guard or by putting up some sort of boundary markers, unless you want them to feel free to guard everything in sight. Since I see my herd of animals as key to my survival, I did not think rottweilers, doberman pinchers, or American bulldogs were good choices.

As a side note, I did want to mention that if you are on well water and hooked into the grid, you can have a hand pump attached on your existing electric pump to pump water by hand if the grid goes down. Some of these new hand pumps claim to be able to pump water as far as 300 feet in an emergency and regularly from a depth of up to 200 ft. And a note about fences……in very flat treeless remote locations, a fence can be as much a view block as it can be a trespasser hindrance. I think everyone should consider their location and circumstances when choosing what to do. I find in my situation a fence would actually give a possible intruder a way to get close to my house without being seen. Whereas without the fence there is not a house or tree or anything else to block my view for miles around, so it really is not worth the expense. One of the things I keep is a DVR full of our favorite movies because I suspect either cable would not be available or I would not be able to afford it. If you have scrap metal around from things you have done to improve your SHTF plan make sure to not throw them away. Scrap metal is at an all time high right now. I keep a huge trailer to keep trash metal on and scrap it every so often. In a TEOTWAWKI situation, everything is worth something. – Pat P.



Economics and Investing:

Reader and loyal content contributor F.J. recommended this: When, Not If, Inflation Returns

K.P. liked this article: Real Wealth, Gold, and Why Government May Want You on Food Stamps

Peter Schiff: The Only Way To Fix The Economy Is To Let It Fail

Items from The Economatrix:

The Canadian Housing Bubble Nears Implosion

Jobs Data Show US Factories Bearing Brunt of Slowdown

S&P 500 Rallies to Highest Since 2008 on Stimulus Bets

Miss In U.S. Payrolls Spurs Talk of New Fed Stimulus



Odds ‘n Sods:

Michael Z. Williamson (SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large) mentioned: Slingshots in the Roman Empire? (Joerg is still experimenting.)

   o o o

Reader F.J. sent this grim prediction: Complex Systems Theorists Predict We’re About One Year From Global Food Riots

   o o o

K.A.F. suggested this British television series: The Wartime Kitchen & Garden

   o o o

H.L. liked the 52 weeks of preparedness lessons provided by ReadyNutrition.com



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Labor was the first price, the original purchase-money that was paid for all things.  It was not by gold or by silver, but by labor, that all wealth of the world was originally purchased." – Adam Smith