Letter Re: Home Water Storage in Water Cooler Bottles

JWR:
A reader recently enquired about using water cooler jugs for long term storage. You suggested taping the original cap to the jugs. I’d like to mention that 55mm snap-on reusable caps can be purchased very inexpensively on eBay. They are not water tight i.e. if turned on its side, water will slowly leak but the caps are adequate to keep out dust and allow transport. 55mm is the standard size for most 3 and 5 gallon jugs. – George C.

Economics and Investing:

B.B. suggested a piece over at Zero Hedge: Hugh Hendry On Europe “You Can’t Make Up How Bad It Is”

Also from B.B. came a link to this piece by Monty Pelerin: The Economic Charade is Almost Over. His essay begins: “As we near the end point, the point where the economy collapses, government becomes more desperate to convey the myth of a recovery. Government data have always been suspect because of the political ramifications of a good vs. bad economic report. Fudging the numbers, or at least the ways of measuring various statistics, likely began once government began issuing economic data.”

Items from The Economatrix:

No End In Sight To Global Job Crisis: UN

Three Fed Policy Makers See No Need to Ease

95 Percent of the Jobs Lost During the Recession Were Middle Class Jobs

Payroll Survey Signals US Jobs Slowing as Orders Drop

Odds ‘n Sods:

More media attention: Doomsday ‘preppers’ are getting ready for the end of the world. It is notable that the journalist quotes Shane Conner of KI4U.com–one of our advertisers.

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Jim K. recommended this very basic how-to video: How To Make a Secret Compartment in Your Wall, as well as this more elaborate procedure: How to Make a Secret Door to a Room or Closet, and this one: How to Build a Secret Underground Room, this one: Hidden-Pivot Bookcase Door, this one: Secret Passage Behind A Custom Built In Bookshelf, and lastly this one: Hidden Door Walkthrough.

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E.B. mentioned the new $1.00 map sale from the USGS for selected topographic maps.  The sale continues through June 4, 2012.

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I recently received a small sample of a hard ballistic protection panel made to NIJ Level 3 standards. These Armorcore panels are mainly sold to beef up bank teller booths, pharmacy sales counters, and similar structures. While quite expensive per square foot, this material would be very useful in places where you can’t stack sandbags, such as when constructing apartment panic rooms.

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Kyle Myers (that fake Russian accent gun nut guy, “Dimitri”) has a new FPS Russia video: The Quadrotor Machinegun. (Warning: Coarse language.) JWR’s Comment: I am dubious whether the “100-round magazine gun” shown mounted on the UAV was functional. Do a freeze frame and look closely. All that I could see was a bogus-looking barrel assembly with a flexible tube coming out the back. I suspect that it was a mock-up gas gun, and that the bullets hitting the Tannerite in the mannequins (and the equal opportunity womannequins) came from a traditional shooter, off camera. I am also not convinced the was personally handling all of the UAV’s flight controls. But it was a glimpse into the future–and entertaining–nonetheless.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Take thou away from me the noise of thy songs; for I will not hear the melody of thy viols.

But let judgment run down as waters, and righteousness as a mighty stream.” – Amos 5:23-24 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 40 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 40 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

A Beginner’s Guide to Buying Silver on eBay, by Gil G.

When I put some serious thought into purchasing silver as a hedge against the rapid inflation of the US dollar, I was overwhelmed by the complexity of the task. Go to eBay’s web site and type in the search criterion “junk silver” and you will be slammed with about 2,000+ different auctions on an average day advertising everything from “face value” (FV), to Troy weight and standard weight, to vials of silver flakes and silver jewelry from someone’s estate sale.  A little bit of knowledge goes a long way when it comes to buying precious metals, especially if you’re shopping on a budget.

Troy Weight
When you go to kitco.com and they list the current price of silver or gold (commonly referred to as the “spot price”), the value that you see listed is the current trade value of one “troy ounce”.  Troy weight is entirely different from the typical weight scale we use in the US today, more specifically called the avoirdupois system.  Troy weight is only really used for precious metals, gems and gunpowder, so unless you have experience trading in those markets, you may need a little education on this scale.

First of all, a troy ounce is not the same as a standard ounce.  I’m not going to bore you with numbers and values and conversion tables.  If you’re truly interested in the specifics, there are abundant resources available.  Suffice it to say, a troy ounce has about 10% more mass than a standard ounce — that is to say, it’s heavier.  However, a troy pound is smaller than a standard pound.  There are only 12 troy ounces to a troy pound, while there are 16 ounces to a standard pound. 
Why is this important? you may be wondering.  A large percentage of the auctions on eBay will have the amount of silver being sold listed by weight.  If you plan on getting value for your purchase, it is critical that you understand what scale the seller is using.  If they don’t specifically state that the amount is troy weight, you should assume its standard — which means there is less silver up for auction. When you see a weight listed in pounds, you can safely assume they are referring to standard pounds, as the troy pound isn’t commonly used.   As there is a significant difference between these systems, you should read the auction carefully to try and determine which scale the seller is using.  Most reputable coin brokers will only use troy weight, as it is the recognized industry standard.

Which Silver?
When you start looking for junk silver or silver bullion on eBay, you will see a wide variety of items listed for sale.  Knowing which to invest your hard-earned money in will mean the difference between throwing good money away or having a valuable trade commodity on hand when it’s crunch time.
I believe strongly in limiting my purchases to pre-1965 US silver coinage.  Primarily, its because these coins are already standardized.  Their silver contents are established, as are their weights.  In addition, they are already denominated and widely distributed, so they are likely to be used regularly in common transactions.  Lastly, they are also the most readily available bullion on the market today.  Most of the silver auctions you find on eBay will be for these types of coins, so there will be no shortage for you to bid on.

You will also see silver bars available for sale and may be tempted to invest in these.  You should avoid buying the 1-gram bars, or bars weighted in grains.  These tiny bars are pure silver, but they rarely offer any kind of value.  You would need to accumulate 31 one-gram bars or 480 grains to get a single troy ounce.  As these bars usually sell for a couple of dollars a piece, plus the cost of shipping, there is virtually no benefit in buying these. 

Larger bars can some times be a good value, but it’s unusual.  These are sometimes called “art bars” because some of the value associated with the bar is for the quality of the engravings. These should be avoided because you will be competing with collectors and art enthusiasts and they often value these much higher than their weight in silver.  What you will want to look for are larger metal bars called “ingots” manufactured by a metalworking company.  These should be stamped with the quality of the silver, preferably .999 fine silver, as well as the troy weight.  Occasionally, you may find a large ingot being sold at a good value.  I tend to avoid silver bars altogether however. If the weight is smaller than an ounce, I’d rather have it in coins.  If it’s greater than an ounce, I’d rather convert it to gold.
You will also find other assorted silver items for sale.  These may be valuable purchases in terms of “melt value”, that is to say the item’s value if it’s melted down and the silver is extracted. Most often, you’ll find vials of silver flakes, junk jewelry and sometimes flatware.  The vials of silver are garbage for tourists and idiots, frequently suspended in liquid to increase the weight.  Under no circumstances should you purchase these as an investment.  Other items like jewelry might be a good value, but the lack of standardization diminishes any benefit.  When used for trade, these will need to be tested for purity, weighed and their value negotiated.  You may even need to consult with an expert, who will undoubtedly require compensation for their services.  So any advantage you may have gained in the purchase, you have lost in time, effort and cost when trading.

Other coins can also be an excellent value, but there are some disadvantages.  By these, I mean, foreign silver and modern US silver coins.  The problem with foreign silver is they are less widely disseminated in the US and therefore harder to commonly identify. Outside of a smaller circle of coin collectors (numismatists) and brokers, most people won’t know the content or purity of the foreign coins, so the same hurdles you face trading silver jewelry, you encounter here. 

As for modern US silver coins, I avoid these as well for the same reasons I avoid art bars – they are collected and I will be competing with individuals who place a higher value on them than their silver content.  The US currently only mints silver coins in limited runs, usually for commemoratives or collectors.  The one exception to this policy is the American Eagle silver coin, which is the US Mint’s silver bullion coin.  All of these coins are highly sought after by coin collectors and usually valued well over the spot price of silver.  Even the American Eagle bullion coins are collected for their numismatic value, so their cost will often be much higher than you should be willing to pay.

So What Should I Look For?
In general, when looking for coins to buy for their trade value, you should avoid anything that is “slabbed”.  Professional numismatic services will grade coins and place them in hard plastic cases to protect the grade and to catalog the coin in their systems.  These hard cases are often referred to as slabs.  You should avoid these coins because they are being traded to collectors for their uniqueness, value and rarity.  They can be fantastic investments, but not for their content in precious metal, which is after all your primary interest.

Since graded coins are of little to no interest to you, you can ignore any reference to grading, the numismatic community’s 1-to-70 [Sheldon] scale of coin quality.  Terms like “BU” (brilliant uncirculated), “MS” (mint state), and “proof” (a different type of mint process with a highly-polished die) shouldn’t mean anything to you.  In addition, lots that are advertised as “unsearched” should have little meaning to you as well.  This only means that these large lots of coins haven’t been thoroughly sorted for key dates, rare coins or “toned” coins.  (Toning refers to unique colors older silver coins can acquire, which are often desirable by some collectors.)

Your focus should be on lots of silver coins sold either by their weight or their face value.  In general, these coins are called junk or trash silver because they have no value to collectors.  Most of the coins will be worn, scratched, dented, gouged and possibly almost unrecognizable – basically all of the qualities of coins that have lived long lives as pocket change.  You can rest assured that any coins of outstanding numismatic value have been weeded out of these lots already, but this isn’t to say that you won’t come across a modestly rare or key date coin from time to time.  However, it would take a great deal of time to sort through and research large quantities of coins to find these modest value rarities and any benefit would be lost in the time and effort spent searching.

For the most part, US silver coins minted prior to 1965 contain 90% silver, often listed as .900 silver.  Please note, I said for the most part.  There are a few coins typically lumped with junk silver that contain proportionately less, specifically 1942-1945 Jefferson Nickels (called war nickels, having 35% silver),  1965-1970 Kennedy Half Dollars (40%) and on rare occasions 1971-1976 Eisenhower Dollars.  There are two versions of the 1971-1976 Eisenhower Dollars, one that contains 40% silver and the other that is clad.  (Cladding is a metallurgical process of putting an outer layer of a different kind of metal on an item.  Turn a modern coin on its edge and you will notice that there appear to be layers of metal.  Silver coins do not have this layered appearance; the edges will appear to be of one uniform metal.)  The silver Eisenhower Dollar was only issued as a collectible though, so its not typically in circulation and isn’t likely to be in any of these auctions.

The auctions you are looking for will advertise that they only have 90% silver coins in them.  They may list what kinds of coins they will include, so check for reference to those coins that have less silver, as it may be very important in getting a good bargain.  The following list is of all the types of coins you should find acceptable:

  • Barber Dime (1892-1916)
  • Mercury Dime (1916-1945)
  • Roosevelt Dime (1946-1964)
  • Barber Quarter (1892-1916)
  • Standing Liberty Quarter (1916-1930)
  • Washington Quarter (1932-1964)
  • Barber Half Dollar (1892-1915)
  • Walking Liberty Half Dollar (1916-1947)
  • Franklin Half Dollar (1948-1963)
  • Kennedy Half Dollar (1964 only) [The later halves are either 40% silver, or are clad.]
  • Morgan Dollar (1878-1921)
  • Peace Dollar (1921-1935)

Weight Versus Face Value
You will see auctions for lots in both weight and in face value.  We’ve already gone over the importance of clearly knowing what weight scale the seller is using, so I won’t go back over that. You may be tempted to skip over auctions for face values, because sellers won’t guarantee specific weights.  Silver being valued for its weight, the face value of the coin may seem to be irrelevant.  However, face value is just as accurate a means of evaluating these lots of silver, as long as the lots don’t contain 40% silver Kennedy Half Dollars.  

Since silver was used to determine the values of these coins when they were in wide distribution and common use, it was alloyed into them in proportionate weights.  So 10 silver dimes has the same silver content as 4 silver quarters and 2 silver half dollars.  This means that regardless of how a seller distributes the coins to you, $1 in face value has the same amount of silver.  There are a couple of exceptions to this rule however.  Morgan and Peace dollars are actually slightly heavier than $1 in lesser coinage.  Also, despite having a lower percentage of silver, there is actually more silver per dollar [of face value] in the Jefferson War Nickels than in other coins.  Much more.

The spot price of silver today is $31.23 and always in fluctuation, so these valuations are only good as an example.  However they should give you a fair idea of the relative values.  So today, the melt value of $1 in 90% silver coins is $22.59.  The melt value of a Morgan or Peace dollar is $24.15.  And the melt value of $1 in Jefferson War Nickels is $35.14.  However, the melt value of $1 in 40% Kennedy Half Dollars is only $9.24.  Do you see how knowing which coins are being included makes a big difference?

As far as buying by weight goes, you should only look at auctions that have 90% coins in them.  The lesser content coins are large and heavy and have less silver in them relative to their weight.  As a result, less valuable metals like copper and manganese take up more of the mass of the lot.  Avoiding these auctions is also a matter of principle in my opinion.  Dealers who are including these coins in their lot are preying on the ignorance of new and uninformed buyers, swindling them by giving them less value for their purchase.  This is no different than a butcher putting their thumb on the scale.  Ethical and conscientious people should vote with their wallets and put these guys out of business.

Navigating eBay
Don’t be intimidated by the fast-pace and the abundance of hyperlinks and advertisements.  There will be a timer counting down the auction and, psychologically, the closer the auction gets to ending, the more eager you will become – anxious to win your item.   Ignore it.  If you miss this one, there will be others.
As for the security of making a purchase on eBay and the likelihood of getting cheated, suffice it to say that unscrupulous people can be found in all corners of the planet and in all walks of life.  eBay and coins brokers are no different.  There are some steps you can take to protect yourself though. 

First, as with any purchase, get to know the seller.  The seller will have an eBay nickname or handle, and right beside that handle in parentheses there will be a number and possibly a colored star.  The number is the number of positive “feedback” comments the person has acquired.  Feedback are short comments buyers and sellers will leave for each other after a successful transaction, and they can be positive, negative or neutral.  If you click on the number, you will be taken to a page which lists these feedback comments for the seller.  Take the time to look them over, especially any negative or neutral ones.  Often these are from disputes, miscommunications and misunderstandings, so you can get an idea of what the seller’s history in dealing with customers is like. If you click on the person’s handle, you will be taken to a profile for the seller.  These aren’t always filled out or detailed, but there will be links to other auctions the seller has up and their eBay storefront, if they have one.  I’ll often take the time to look at other items they have up for sale to get an idea of what type of merchandise they sell. 

Second, ensure the auction is covered under eBay’s buyer protection policy.  Only a handful of auctions aren’t, but take the time to make sure.  There should be a banner underneath the terms of the auction with a shield beside it.  If you open your package and its not what was described in the auction or if you never get your coins at all, this is how you will go about getting your money back.  eBay will act as a mediator between you and the seller to get the issue resolved and usually the results are quite positive.

Third, you can utilize PayPal as an additional method of security for your purchase.  PayPal also offers buyer protection and it does make online transactions easier.  I’ve had an account with them for years and have never had an issue with security or fraud.

Fourth, check the shipping terms of the auction.  For larger value purchases, the seller will usually ship with some kind of delivery confirmation and insurance.  If they don’t, you can contact the seller and request it.  They will usually comply, but might ask that you cover the additional costs.  I typically seek out sellers that offer free shipping.  After all, when you’re purchasing $1,000 or more online, they don’t have to maintain a storefront, pay rent, hire staff, pay for healthcare, taxes and insurance, etc.  So who’s getting the better end of the deal?  In other words, their overhead is minimal, so its not unreasonable to expect them to pick up the $5-$20 shipping costs.  Many sellers pass this expense on to you however, so be prepared for that.

And lastly, set limits for yourself.  The psychology of an auction appeals to our competitive nature, so don’t be surprised to find yourself in a bidding war.  Set a hard limit on how high you will go and if the auction passes it, walk away.  Like I said earlier, there are about 2,000 junk silver auctions on eBay on any given day, so winning this particular auction isn’t life-or-death… yet. 

How Much Is Too Much?
It’s important to remember that the spot price of silver is a guideline only.  It’s a baseline from which trades are made.  If you were running a business trading silver and you bought and sold at the spot price, you would lose money.  So you can rationally expect to pay a higher price than spot for your silver.  After all, most sellers aren’t looking to give away their merchandise.  This is why buying online can offer such a good value. 

Most traditional stores and businesses operate on a 40% profit margin.  Anything less than that and most businesses are losing money.  This keeps the lights on, the bills paid, the employees on salary and covered by health insurance, guarantees next week’s deliveries, etc.  With silver trading at about $30/oz (Troy) a traditional store owner would have to sell silver at $42 an ounce to keep the doors open! As I previously stated, an online business owner has substantially less overhead.  For all you know, it could just be a guy in his den with a barrel full of silver and a computer.

For my part, I look for buys at about 10-15% over spot and consider myself fortunate to find them.  Just this week, I picked up $32 FV for $800.  Doing the math on that, that’s a melt value of $723, and a profit of $77 for the seller.  Have I done better?  Sure.  I’ve also done much worse.  But the auction is guaranteed 90% silver, with at least $2 in Morgan and/or Peace Dollars, the seller has an excellent reputation and a 14 day return policy, and the auction has eBay buyer protection.  Plus, I didn’t have to drive all over the county at $4 a gallon, hunting down pawn shops, coin shops, flea markets and swap meets, crossing my fingers and hoping to find a handful of coins at a good value.  For those things alone, it’s worth the extra $77 dollars to me… and the price of silver is still rising.
I hope this sheds a little more light on the subject of buying silver online.  It can seem very daunting and confusing, especially when you start trying to make conversions and calculate values and keep pace with an ever-changing commodities market.  The harsh reality is that it’s not for everyone.  If you don’t have the patience and depth to do the research and put in the time, you will get cheated.  If you take nothing else away, remember this:  If it sounds too good to be true, that’s because it is.  No one is giving silver away these days.  No one.

Three Letters Re: A Second Look at the Mosin-Nagant Rifle

Mr. Rawles,
I am writing in reference to Frog’s post about the Mosin-Nagant rifle. I have owned several Mosin-Nagant rifles myself. They were designed to kill enemies of the Soviet Union. They were not designed to necessarily be the safest rifle around. If you’re not very careful while using a Mosin-Nagant rifle, it can blow up and injure you. I learned that lesson the hard way in 1998. I also learned about the importance of eye and ear protection while shooting as well. No one should ever fire a Mosin (or any firearm) without eye and ear protection. When my Mosin blew up, I suffered severe burns and shrapnel penetrations of my face. Fortunately, a skilled eye surgeon was able to remove the larger pieces from my eye (there were over 200 pieces in all) and my sight was undamaged. I had an eye hemorrhage and a partially detached retina. I lost 25% of the hearing in my left ear and have lived with tinnitus since. I would only recommend this rifle to someone who had no other options. – Joseph E.

James,
Regarding the article A Second Look at the Mosin-Nagant Rifle, a few months ago we put the Mosin-Nagant Low Profile Side Combo rail for $39.97 on a 91/30. This was an earlier model of the mount currently for sale, and although they said a straight bolt would still work, that would probably only be with a skinny military scope. It would be better to say that it’s for bent bolt and make it a half inch lower, but it’s still pretty good.

The mount has a groove that hugs the side of the receiver, so getting it on straight was not an issue. We used the the first and third of the three screw holes, and drilled all the way through the receiver. This made tapping a bit easier, The stock was inlet a half inch with hand tools.

We sawed off the bolt and the knob and drilled a 1/4″ hole straight down the nub of the bolt handle, all the way through the bolt body. The new bolt handle was a 1/4″ stainless steel rod bent in a vise. We filed off the bottom edge of the bolt handle nub to accommodate the inside radius of the new bent bolt handle. The ball was also drilled and re-used. It was all soldered together with silver solder and a small acetylene torch with a tiny blue flame. As a finishing touch, we also drilled a small hole through the bolt handle nub at a right angle to the new handle, drove in a finishing nail as a pin, and soldered that in. The handle will never come off. The feel of the action is greatly improved, and it’s like a new rifle. I would say that a lot of the “stickiness” of the Mosin-Nagant is because of the
short straight bolt handle which is much shorter than the Mauser bolt handle.

All this was done for free by a retired machinist with a good drill press and experience using taps, so it worked the first try.

For the iron sight, I put on a Mojo aperture rear sight only. And to improve the stock length I added a size small Pachmayr Decelerator recoil pad.

I won’t brag that the gun was a bargain – I paid about $120 at a gun shop where I got to pick the best of about eight guns. Some were really beat, some had terrible triggers. This one seemed good. The bore is very good, although the crown shows some wear. A little polish and a shim job on the trigger (as seen on Youtube) got the trigger pull down to about 3.5 pounds and is fairly crisp.

At this point I called it quits because costs were approaching $300 (even with free labor) for the mount, scope, pad, sight, and rifle. But if I had a pile of Mosins, I’d want one with a scope. And the bent bolt will probably outlive the rifle, if I don’t care about matching numbers. Be sure to check the headspace before firing.

Sincerely, – Hardy Citrus

 

Mr. Rawles,
Frog’s article on the merits of the Mosin Nagant was a well written piece, and effectively drove home the main point of having one or two: they’re inexpensive.  At the same time though, there are a couple points he makes which seem a bit optimistic.  He mentions that with a good quality optic, 1 MOA accuracy is not uncommon.  This is true.  I have friends who have achieved such accuracy, but only when using high-quality, modern manufacture ammunition, a good optic, and a good bench to shoot from.  Achieving the same results under field conditions would be quite the feat indeed.  Bearing in mind that the whole point of the Mosin is cost effectiveness, I would argue that an optic of high enough quality to achieve such accuracy will probably run 2 to 3 times the cost of the rifle.  He also asserts that a Mosin is a great budget sniper rifle.  This may be only a difference in definition of terms, but in American sniper doctrine, a sniper rifle is made to be employed beyond 600 meters.  Russian sniper doctrine focuses more on shorter range urban precision shooting, like in the siege of Stalingrad portrayed in the film Enemy at the Gates.  This makes the Russian sniper more comparable to the western Squad Designated Marksman, a role which focuses on targets 300-600 meters out.  Beyond this distance, Russian sniper rifles simply are not built to maintain practical accuracy, nor is the ammo made for them made to such tight tolerances as their western counterparts.  To truly turn a Mosin into a sniper rifle that is up to western standards, one would have to invest much time, effort, and a bit of money into working up hand loads to maximize the available accuracy of the rifle, or buy much more expensive factory ammo.  As Major John Plaster would say, consistency equals accuracy.  Accuracy is everything to a sniper, and in the area of consistency, the Mosin requires so much improvement to raise it to true sniper grade as to negate the initial cost effectiveness.  To be fair, the Mosin really is a fine budget hunting rifle, and a passable mid-range battle rifle.  To the survivalist with extremely tight budget constraints, it would make a decent general purpose long gun.  But to those of us who would take on the role of group sniper, there are far better offerings to be had from Remington, Winchester, Savage, and others.  Surely not as inexpensive, but much better. – John in Spokane

JWR Replies: I must concur. The real bargain tack-driver in today’s market has to be the Savage Model 10 series. Used ones can often be found for around $275 to $325 at gun shows (sans glass.) We have a Savage Model 10 Tactical .308 here at the ranch, and love it. The only change we made to it was having a Holland’s of Oregon muzzle brake installed.

Economics and Investing:

When currency isn’t current: Old $50 bill found real, but not before bearer arrested.

SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson sent this: Wealthy Americans Queue to Give Up Their Passports

C.D.V. suggested this commentary from Jim Powell at Forbes: Obama’s Plan to Seize Control of Our Economy and Our Lives

Items from The Economatrix:

What if a Collapse Happened and Nobody Noticed?

Jobs Growth Seen Rebounding in April

Factory Growth Best in 10 Months; Bolsters Outlook

Smart Money Banking Big on Gold and Silver to Soar

Odds ‘n Sods:

B.B. sent this from a Buffalo, New York newspaper: ‘Preppers’: Ready for anything. The article mentions Shelf Reliance, Emergency Essentials, and even JWR.

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Tip H. sent this article from Wazoo: Yellowstone “Super-Eruption” less super, more frequent than thought

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Another WWII fighter plane mystery unearthed: “In March a Polish team out in the Western Desert [of Egypt] came across a P-40 aircraft which had apparently made a forced landing, in which the undercarriage collapsed. The aircraft identity has yet to be confirmed but is believed to be from 260 Squadron RAF and its location suggests was lost around the time of the battle of El Alamein. Until the plane’s identity is confirmed, the pilot’s fate remains unknown, although an unused parachute pack was found alongside the wreck, very strongly suggesting he at least walked away from the crash.” (Thanks to K.T. for the link.) JWR Adds: I found this article of particular interest, because when I was a teenager in the 1970s, there were two privately-owned airworthy Curtiss P-40 Warhawks hangared at the airport of the town where I grew up. It was always a thrill to have them fly over our house. The last I heard, there was still a Bearcat, a P-40, and two P-51 Mustangs kept in hangars at the Livermore, California airport. And of course there has also been at least one T-6 or SNJ-6 there, too. (The SNJ is the Navy’s version of the Texan, built with a retractable tail hook.)

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Pierre M. recommended this lightweight and expandable backpack design: The Moonbow Gearskin.

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A reminder that there are just two days left in Safecastle’s big sale on Mountain House canned freeze dried foods with the maximum allowed 25% off, free shipping, and buyers club member incentives and rebates ends. The sale ends on May 6th. It is expected that Mountain House can prices will be going up very soon, so take advantage of this opportunity.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“In addition, inflation should creep higher. Do not be mellowed by the affirmation of a 2% target rate of inflation here in the U.S. or as targeted in six of the G-7 nations. Not suddenly, but over time, gradually higher rates of inflation should be the result of QE policies and zero bound yields that were initiated in late 2008 and which will likely continue for years to come.” – Bill Gross, PIMCO Investment Outlook, May, 2012

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 40 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 40 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Don’t Be Blind-Sided By a Secondary Event, by Bill W.

I’m 62 years old and live in the suburbs of a large town in Georgia (not Atlanta).  I think of myself as an intermediate prepper.  I’ve studied a lot and have plans in place for myself and my family should events turn sour.  I’ve got all the survival manuals in place and have prepared to defend my family should the worst happen.  My family is prepped and ready to go.  Though I’ve not bought much in the way of food stuff, I have all the hardware and I know where to get the food stuff on short order.  I keep an adequate supply of cash on hand.

I already know that unless there is a direct threat to my family or my home I will not be bugging out irrespective of what may happen.  Neither my or my wife’s health will support a bug out on foot.  However we do have bug-out bags ready just in case we should have to leave.  We live in a community of like-minded individuals.  My home is well prepped and a supply of water and other essentials is nearby.

I have a backup location (second home about 80 miles away) that I can go to if there is a direct threat to my family or my home.  I have the capability to load my gear and supplies and make my way there without traveling major road or towns.  My backup location is actually a better physical location (more remote, better water and game, better for gardening) for a long term event.  However I do not have the community support (like-minded neighbors) there that I have at my home.  My backup location is ready should I need it.

I am a mechanical engineer by education and a nuclear engineer by trade.  My principal function at work is overseeing the analysis of risk at nuclear and chemical facilities in the US and other industrialized countries.  This brings me to the point of what I want to discuss.

As we prepare to survive in the unknown world, a world where there are no support systems to keep us aware of what is going on outside our immediate neighborhood, we need to know a lot about what surrounds us.  As we enter into a situation where there are no utilities, everyone will be busy taking care of themselves and their families as they try to survive.  So who will be minding the industrial facilities around us?  My answer is no one.  Everyone will be minding their own retreats and families.  No one will be reporting to the nuclear and chemical facilities to make sure that they are in a safe and stable condition.

As we have become more and more industrialized, our industrial processes have become more complex.  We rely on computers and embedded processors to ensure that nuclear and chemical facilities are in a safe and stable condition.  Granted well trained employees are there to oversee the automated process and to take action if things do not go as programmed.  Without power to monitor and control the nuclear and chemical facilities and no one reporting to work to do the same, many of these facilities will become unstable over time.  Chemical or nuclear releases will become likely.

As I’ve made my plans one of the things that I have done is to take a map of my surrounding area and drawn a 50 mile ring around my house (this is true for both my home and backup location).  Within that ring I have identified the facilities that may pose a hazard to me and my family should the power and employees not be available to monitor and maintain stable conditions at the facilities that use or maintain inventories of hazardous materials.  This is not easy even for a trained professional.  It involves knowing the inventory of hazardous material stored at each facility and the effect that those materials may have on humans and the environment.  Learning the material and quantities is the hard part.  The hazards can be learned from Material Safety Data Sheets which can be found on the web.
As you may expect I was surprised at what I learned.  Even in a semi-rural area in Georgia, away for any large cities like Atlanta and in an area that we don’t typically think of as chemical ally, I found a very large number of facilities that use or process large quantities of chemical that are hazardous and / or deadly to humans and the environment.

A lot of the chemicals housed in these facilities are fairly stable while in storage without much attention needed.  But when left alone for prolonged periods of time, and in a post event period when looting and mischief may abound, they may not be contained and stable for the long term.
Another factor in my analysis is the weather and the prevailing winds.  Most of the facilities where the worst offending materials are located are to the south and east of me.  This is also true of my backup location.  That is good because where I live the prevailing winds tend to be from the west or southwest.  Seldom does the wind come directly from the south and almost never from the east.  I would hardly ever be in the direct path of a wind-blown release of material from one of these facilities.

An additional factor in my analysis was knowing when there may be a release of a hazardous material.  As I said before a lot of the chemicals housed in these facilities are fairly stable while in storage without much attention needed.  If we ignore for a minute the potential of a release due to mischief, then weather, time, and the properties of the material (corrosive, stability over time) come into play.  Harsh weather such as severe cold, heavy rains and flooding, and severe winds can lead to early failure of storage facilities.  The corrosiveness of a material may require constant stirring, cleaning, and maintenance.  Some materials may volatize and give of harmful or explosive vapors while remaining in there containers.  Some chemical are susceptible to becoming unstable when mixed with other chemicals or water.  Some chemicals and processes give off heat which may lead to the early failure of a container.  A lighting strike on a chemical or fuel container may lead to a fire or explosion which can involve other materials and produce toxic vapors and heavy smoke.

In addition to the chemical facilities, within my 50 mile ring are two nuclear facilities.  One is a nuclear power plant which is due south.  The other is a government facility which is southeast of me.  They are both close to the 50 mile ring.

The government facility is mostly shutdown. It is in the process of being decommissioned and closed, although some new, less threatening facilities are being used and constructed.  It houses large tanks of radioactive waste that self-heat and evolve hydrogen.  If left alone, the hydrogen will build up in the tanks.  An ignition source or lighting could cause a large explosion that would result in a significant release of radioactive material.  Because it is so far away and the prevailing winds are in my favor I don’t worry about this facility.

The nuclear power plant is somewhat different.  It is due south and sometimes the winds are from that direction.  If a slowly evolving event were to occur then the reactor cores would probably we off loaded and all of the nuclear fuel would be stored in the spent fuel pools.  Assuming all power is lost and the employee are minding their families then over time the heat generated by the spent fuel would boil off the cooling water and a release of radioactive material would occur.  This process would take weeks to develop.  Again, because of the distance and direction I am not concerned.

Due to both facilities being near the ring and the unknown factors (you can’t smell, taste or see radioactivity) I would not travel very far to the south or southeast of where I live after the SHTF.

My analysis has allowed me to understand that I am not at significant risk of a secondary chemical or radiological event.  Dealing with the new conditions that follow the SHTF event that took away our way of life will be difficult enough without the fear of these types of surprises.

Everyone who expects to survive a SHTF scenario needs to understand the secondary threats around them.  In addition to the issues of no utilities, non-friendlies looking for food and shelter, no health care or support, and an unknown future, we need to know that we will not be blind-sided by a chemical or nuclear release that we are not prepared for.

If you think you are ready but haven’t looked at the surrounding chemical and nuclear facilities then you are not fully prepared.  If you plan to hold up in an industrialized area you must know what the surrounding hazards are.

Take out a map of your retreat area and draw a 50 mile ring.  Go to Google Maps and look at the area particularly on the upwind side of you (look at the Weather Channel and you can understand where your prevailing winds are coming from).  If you find industrialized areas, find out what types of chemical and nuclear hazards are close by.  Make a determination of whether you want to be downwind of a release of these materials.  Bugging out after a chemical or radiological release envelopes you may be too late (remember Bhopal).  Good luck and God Bless.

Letter Re: Safeguarding Videos of Constitutional Abuse

JWR:
One concern I have is that if I were to record unconstitutional actions by police, would my phone be seized and the videos erased?

One solution may be to record via internet stream. Then they would have to also think to take an extra step of checking for the software and logging into your account to delete your videos. Meanwhile, you could call someone from jail and request they copy the video before it gets deleted.

I found a review of the three different sites.

I recommend that you keep your recorder software signed in and ready to go and use quick locking/unlocking on the phone itself.

Even so, I urge you to comply by all written recording laws. This advice would only apply for situations where it’s not technically illegal but which might happen anyway. After all, they’re acting unconstitutionally in the first place! – C.D.V.

Letter Re: Sport Shooting for Preppers

As C.K.’s article points out almost all of the publications that cover prepping acknowledge the need for self-defense, but very little ink gets spent on developing or maintaining real proficiency.  His suggestion that readers consider either practical shooting (USPSA) or defensive pistol shooting (IDPA) really hits the target.  The follow-up letter by Sean from COS advocating hunting as another way to develop and maintain skills also hit the mark.

Many articles and even most of the survival fiction stories provide descriptions and explanations for the “right” guns to buy.  “Survival Gun Selection” on the left side of survivalblog.com is an excellent overview of the equipment and rationale, but even this article avoids two other gun issues that are critical, especially for those of us with a wife who carefully monitors our combined survival investing.

Those two issues are:

1.) How many rounds should be put aside for each type of weapon for self-defense or hunting assuming TSHTF and ammo is no longer readily available?

2.) On some kind of rolling forecast, how many rounds should be budgeted for maintaining proficiency for each year between now and when TSHTF?

My wife knows that I would rather buy an extra 500 rounds of 40 S&W than another two cases of Mountain House Chicken a la King.  But seriously, how would you make the argument for the number of rounds to keep on hand?

For example, we have four hunting rifles in .223, .243, 7mm-08, and .308 for most North American hunting plus a .375 H&H mostly for bear.  Following the same reasoning as in Sean’s letter, we draw for resident permits each year and usually get a deer and an antelope and occasionally an elk.  Even with pre-season practice and testing my own hand loads, it is really hard to justify more than 40 to 50 rounds per year for each of the bigger calibers.  The .223 with a big NightForce scope sees a lot more action since it is used for varmint hunting throughout the year.

Our primary carry pistols are all in .40 S&W.  Without participating in regular matches as C.K. suggests, we do extended shooting sessions about twice a month with 40 to 50 rounds per gun.  Just for skill maintenance, we go through 600 or more rounds per year per pistol.  We also have several 1911s that have been displaced by the high capacity polymer pistols, and they probably see no more than 100 rounds per year apiece.  At those same practice sessions, we also shoot at least two 30-round magazines of 5.56 through our M4rgeries.  For the pistols and the ARs, we use the drills we learned at Front Sight at the 4-Day Defensive [handgun and rifle] courses.  (Very inexpensive course certificates, thanks to eBay, and highly recommended.)

In your novel “Patriots”, shortly after most of The Group gets to the retreat in Idaho, the characters perform an inventory of their supplies (food, tools, supplies, clothing, guns, and ammo):   “As for ammunition, we are in excellent shape – in all nearly 300,000 rounds, almost half of which is .22 rimfire.   …Joe Schmo on the street probably only has a couple of hundred rounds on hand, on average.”

On my first reading of the book several years ago, I thought this was a bit excessive.  Now, I am not so sure. 

Take out the .22 LR (150,000 rounds) and divide the remaining 150,000 rounds by 12 or 15 people.  That leaves 10,000 to 12,500 per person.  Split that number between hunting (maybe 10% – 1,000 rounds across all hunting guns), defensive pistol (say 30% or 3,000 rounds) and defensive rifle (the remaining 60% or 6,000 rounds).  If half of the defensive pistol ammo was intended for skill maintenance, those 1,500 rounds would last for only 4 or 5 years of practice.

When my son and I attended the 4-Day Defensive Handgun Class at Front Sight earlier this year, we each went through 720 rounds in four days.  A year ago and prior to the classes, it would never have occurred to me that the two of us would chew through almost 1,500 rounds in just four days – in practice!.  Then, I got on the phone with my oldest boy who had served with the 1st Marines in Fallujah.  I was stunned to learn how many rounds went through the average rifleman’s M4 in a single firefight.  He told me that he usually felt under-equipped with only eight 30-round magazines on his gear.

My next thought is that we are talking some serious money.  Let’s say 3,000 rounds of 5.56 primarily for practice at $350 to $400 per thousand plus 3,000 rounds of higher quality 5.56 at $500 to $600 per thousand.  The AR-15 ammo could set you back $2,500 to $3,000.  Assume roughly the same cost per round for .40 S&W (9mm a little less and .45 ACP a bit more) for practice and for high quality defense rounds for your carry pistol, and we can add $1,250 to $1,500 for your primary handgun.  The hunting ammo will likely run $20 to $30 per box of 20 except for the .223 which in a pinch could also use the ammo for your AR.  The 1,000 rounds of good quality hunting ammo could set you back another $1,400 to $1,600.  Enough ammo to feed the whole battery can easily nudge into $5,000 or $6,000.

My wife’s reaction was that much money could buy a whole lot of beans and band-aids!

How about the benefit of your wisdom for all of us in that same predicament?  How many rounds is a reasonable budget for skill maintenance?  Assuming as I do that ammo will be one of the very first things to disappear from stores, how many rounds of quality defensive ammo is enough?

Your current thoughts would be greatly appreciated. – Don M.

JWR Replies: I’ve always made a distinction between ammo for target practice, and ammo for TEOTWAWKI. The latter is always kept in reserve. Aside from target practice ammo, I consider 1,000 rounds per handgun and 2,000 rounds per battle rifle a bare minimum. Here at the ranch, one entire wall of JASBORR is lined with heavy duty ammo can shelves, but much of that ammo is for training or is intended for eventual barter.

Economics and Investing:

G.G. flagged this: The Media Won’t Touch this Story About the End of the US Dollar

Coincidentally, M.E.W. noted one large paper that just did: How US debt risks dollar doomsday: The US dollar is getting perilously close to losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. Should it cross the line, the 2008 financial crisis could look like a summer storm.

Mac Slavo: What is America’s Economic Breaking Point?

Items from The Economatrix:

The Illusion of an Economic Recovery

Jim Sinclair Has Something to Say

US Economy Grows at Tepid 2.2%, Misses Estimates

Oil Prices Rise On Improvement In US Manufacturing