Family Continuity Planning, by John from Virginia

It’s 2:36PM; you and your spouse are at work.  Your son is at day care and your daughter is at school.  The Schumer hits the fan. What is your Family Continuity Plan?
The scenario above is very real and indeed plausible.  Many families have and will one day experience something very similar to this.  To prepare you and your family from natural or man-made disasters it is recommended to design, develop, and incorporate a Family Continuity Plan (FCP); it may one day save all of your lives.

As any prepper, for a natural disaster or a TEOTWAWKI event (or both), we all have the supplies and skills that we require.  Some of your skills may include hunting, trapping, gardening, cooking, or water purifying.  Your supplies most likely encompass food, water, shelter, fire-making material, light-sources, defensive gear, and tactical gear. But most importantly, you will need a Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP) or what can be considered a Family Continuity Plan (FCP).  Hopefully you and your family have already communicated and implemented a FCP.  If you haven’t developed a FCP then I can guarantee that your plan to bug-out or even bug-in, will fail.  It will fail because the most likely scenario will have you out of town, on a business trip, when the SHTF and your wife and kids are not brushed up on your survival plan back home; they will be oblivious on what to do.  Or, you will be in the middle of a business day and your daughter will be at school.  The SHTF and all the teachers will be scrambling out the door to rescue their family and she will be alone; oblivious on what to do.  Your oldest child left home to be a resident student at New York University, SHTF. What is his plan to bug-out when another 9/11 happens?  You and your wife are at work, the SHTF and your two toddlers are at daycare and all forms of communications are down.  Which of you two will pick them up?  What happens when you get to the daycare and the building is vacant?  What happens when you arrive at your residence and no one is there? 3-hours pass and still no one arrives?  In this scenario you realize you either need to bug-out alone or get trapped in your city.  Your wife and two kids have not returned home, do you come up with a plan to find them?  You better have thought of all likely scenarios and communicated this well to your family members or your bug-out hideaway, fully stocked west of the Mississippi, becomes a null option at this point.  The most important thing you can do for yourself and your family will be to have a very well planned-out, well disseminated FCP with maps, driving/walking directions, rally points, and multiple Course of Actions (COAs) with a plan A, plan B, plan C, etc, for every possible scenario you can think of.

A COOP (Continuity of Operations Plan) is a government term for a detailed plan on how essential functions of an agency or business will be maintained when an emergency situation has disrupted normal operations.  You may have heard of a Business Continuity Plan (BCP) which is pretty much the same thing as a COOP, but more business lingo vice government.  Basically, these plans are written, fully thought-out and communicated procedures for a range of scenarios to keep an entity alive during serious catastrophes. These procedures will vary in scope.  For example, having a backup site in case headquarters becomes a smoking hole or who will be next in command if leadership is put out of action.  These procedures are thoroughly tested and disseminated down to every worker, soldier, cleaner, and cook.  After 9/11, how did corporations such as Bank of America, Verizon, Sun Microsystems, the N.Y. Stock Exchange, and other organizations survived?  These companies would not have survived without some type of COOP/BCP.
 
When I was researching Family Continuity Plans, I was shocked to learn there was not much information readily available on the topic.  Majority of the information were mere hand-out cards for your name, SSN, family member names, and most importantly an outside POC name and number of a relative or friend that could act as the communication point.  This information is good to have, but what happens if phone services and cell phone services are not operable during a disastrous event? 

In August of 2011, the East Coast experienced a 5.8 magnitude earthquake that hit outside of D.C. near Mineral, Virginia.  It was strong enough that the government facility I worked at was immediately evacuated.  The earthquake occurred around 2:00 PM while my wife and I were at work and our two children were in daycare.  I was able to get to my cell phone and LAN line within 15 minutes of the evacuation, but I was not able to reach my wife or daycare.  The main reason was that the entire East Coast populace was also trying to make calls on their cell phones and my local phone service was inoperable.  We didn’t lose phone service, it was completely tied up.  I immediately enacted our FCP; get to my children’s daycare ASAP.  During that time, I was trying to make contact with my wife with no success.  My wife and I are fortunate that we work approx. 7 miles from each other and the daycare is right smack in the middle.  As soon as I pulled into the driveway to our daycare another vehicle pulled in behind me; it was my wife.  Luckily there was no emergency at our daycare, everyone was unharmed and in fact both my kids were napping.  Words cannot express how ecstatic I was that our FCP actually worked without the need of a phone call.  Our FCP worked exactly how we documented, planned, and tested.  We were fortunate nothing major happened, but was given the chance to exercise our FCP in this real-world event. This helped us determine what worked, what didn’t and what needed to be improved.  We realized how important it would have been to have a couple of powerful CB radios to provide that gap in communication.  We now have one Cobra HH38 with external antennas in each vehicle and in the process of acquiring secondary CB radios.

You will find very little documentation online in regards to examples or a decent outline for your Family Continuity Plan.  A good starting point would be the COOP I stumbled across for the county of Walla Walla, in Washington State.  I actually used this as the outline to start my own FCP and just took out the business and government lingo. Their COOP included a checklist and inventory list.  I recommend using their COOP as your starting point.                   

When developing my family FCP, the following are six basic elements I considered:
1) Critical functions vs. non-critical functions
2) Threats
3) Scenarios
4) Planning
5) Testing
6) Maintenance

Critical functions vs. non-critical functions:

Non-critical functions are those items that you want, not what you need to sustain a family during a time of crisis.  Critical functions are needs that are required within your family to survive before, during and after a catastrophe.  Most family’s critical function lists will include water, food, and shelter while some lists will contain specific requirements such as mobility for those with paralysis, contacts/eyeglasses, diabetic equipment, heart medicine, or protection for those within your family that may have xeroderma pigmentosum. 

Threats:

Once critical functions to survive have been identified, the next step is to analyze all potential threats that can slightly, moderately, or greatly impact the sustainability of your critical functions.  Threats can be hurricanes, tornadoes, earth quakes, floods, fires, terrorist attacks, an epidemic, civil war, World War III, you name it.  It is important to list all man-made and natural disasters that can potentially put your family at risk. 

Scenarios:

Once threats have been listed, the next step is to run through impact scenarios.  For example, how will a major flood affect your community, affect your family’s ability to drive out of the area or affect your critical functions to survive?  In the event you and your family have enough warning prior to a large-scale flood, will you bug-in and fortify or will you bug-out to higher ground, perhaps to a different state?  When will your family bug-out in the event of a CAT 3 hurricane, during a hurricane watch or hurricane warning?  What happens when there is a major earthquake, loss of all communication, power, water, etc. and you and your family are at work, sporadically located throughout Los Angeles?  In the event of a mass fire and there is an exodus outside a major city, what roads are you evacuating through?  While evacuating through these roads your vehicle becomes disabled and you forgot to charge your GPS, do you have a physical map or printed out Google Maps to travel by foot?  What will you bring and what vehicle will be used?  Are your supplies already prepped at a bug-out site or in your garage for a quick and easy load?  How will you load each piece of equipment in your vehicle in 10 minutes before bugging-out?  What equipment will you take with you on foot when you run out of gas or blow two tires while evacuating with a fully loaded SUV and you are halfway to your FCP site?  Also, when will you activate your FCP? Unfortunately most individuals never contemplate the most critical time; right at the point of when the SHTF.  Understand that you may not have any warning at all; this is one of many things that a Family Continuity Plan identifies and solves for you.

Planning:

Once you and your family proposed as many impact scenarios, no doubt generating multiple questions, it is time to bring a plan to the table.  In this portion of the FCP, you will be answering the questions generated from the “Scenarios” section.   This portion of the FCP will be the bulk of your plan; it will contain not only your plans but also any checklists, diagrams, step-by-step guides, and any critical pieces of information.  

Testing:

After your plan and solutions have been put together, it will be critical to test your plan.  Testing your FCP will be the most important section.  Testing determines what portions of your FCP actually works and hopefully determines what doesn’t work.  Without simulating or putting parts of your plan into action you cannot be sure it is completely foolproof.  Fortunately, or unfortunately, you may get the chance to experience a real-world event that puts your plan, or portions of it, into action such as I did during the AUG 2011 earthquake.  During and after simulating your plan you will make corrections, modifications, subtract, and add to your plans.    

Maintenance:

Lastly, there must be periodic maintenance of your plan.  10-years-ago your children were in high school, now they are married and have children of their own; you want your FCP to incorporate them as well. 
Your Family Continuity Plan should be thoroughly written down and well communicated to your entire family.  My fear is that a lot of folks have a general idea of where they would go, what specific gear they would bring but have not thoroughly formalized an actual plan during a time of crisis.  Therefore, I am sharing with you how my wife and I started our FCP as an example and offer a modified version of one of our Course of Actions (COAs) in hopes it will help you develop your FCP. 

First, we referred to the six elements of a Family Continuity Plan.  We wrote down all of the critical elements in our family that are required to sustain us through any environmental threat.  In this process, you will create a checklist for your family’s needs. This checklist will be part of your FCP as a guide when your memory fails to function during a crisis.  Remember the difference between a need and a want.  Your needs are the most critical supplies to sustain your family’s life and will be with you when the decision is made to drop excess supplies.  We split all of our gear into three categories; high, medium, and low.  High inventory identified our critical supplies while medium was placed on supplies we could last for some time.  Low was given to everything else; we plan and equip for all three types of supplies but now we know what the priorities are.  We listed typical supplies such as food, water, shelter, clothing, specific-medicine, emergency rucksack, contacts and eyeglasses, radios, and self-defense equipment, (to name a few items).  We wrote down necessary skills that we either have or will need during and after a crisis.  Skills such as cooking, applying medical treatment, self-defense, gun operations, safety, security, gardening, engine repair, wilderness survival, map reading, direction finding, cleaning, building, repairing, and so forth.  Remember that skills will be more important than the actual supplies.  It would be pointless after the SHTF trying to throw down your 5-year collection of assorted seeds on the ground if you have never gardened in your life.  Once your critical functions have been identified and written down, you then have an idea of what items that are missing or lacking in your survival plan.  If you have no idea how to cook but your wife does, I would recommend you learn that skill.  Your FCP should have a plan if you or your significant other passes away during a catastrophic event.  Imagine you are the only one in your family that knows how to shoot and reload your handgun, shotgun, and long-rifle; what happens when you kick-the-bucket during a crisis?  Imagine your wife is the only person in your family that knows how to operate, maintain, and drive your Class A RV, and 3-weeks after a nuclear attack, she passes away from radiation sickness.  Remember, don’t think just because you know how to do something is enough, what if you’ve been removed from the picture and your wife needs to turn off the main water line before there is a septic backflow into your house?  A critical piece to a Business Continuity Plan or COOP is the succession of leadership and skills between top-level management down to the worker-bees.  It’s the business idea that if leadership is unable to perform their duties within a COOP scenario, the next in line has been educated and trained to pick up where they left off.  It’s the business idea of not having only one technical expert at their main center.  They will have additional trained experts and some strategically placed at their COOP site when the “smoking hole” scenario occurs.  Same analogy applies to your family COOP; don’t put all your 9mm ammo in one basket. 

Once your essential family items and skills are identified, come up with a laundry list of threats that could greatly impact the fabrics of your family’s life.  Think of them all, even that zombie apocalypse stirring in the back of your mind if you wish.  First, focus your attention on the threats that are more realistic or more likely to occur in your environment and then expand out. For my family here in Virginia Beach, our primary threats are hurricanes, flooding, and the occasional severe winter storm.  We may have threats such as tornadoes, fires, tropical storms, wind storms, terrorist attacks, nuclear incident/attacks, and tsunamis that could one day affect us.  It would be wise to imagine as many threats as possible – even the ones that may seem remotely impossible.  Would there be any reason why South Dakota would ever need to be prepared for a volcanic disaster?  If Yellowstone ever took off, the great folks of SD would be in some serious trouble.  The likelihood of this ever happening is less likely to happen but the chance is still there – better to be prepared for it vice having the SHTF and you are standing there SYP (Schumering Your Pants).  As you develop your threats you will see that your Family Continuity Plan may support multiple threats.  Portions of your FCP during a sever flood may mirror your family plan for a hurricane.  Realize that some threats will affect your ability to bug-in or bug-out even if your sole plan is to head out to your fully-stocked cabin in the Appalachian Mountains. 

Now that you have identified your critical infrastructure and your threats, the long and sometimes complicated part of meshing your critical elements and threats into scenarios begins.  You run every scenario and every possibility that could happen within an event and document solutions; this will ultimately be your plan.  For example, you and your family have decided to bug-out when the SHTF in Arkansas.  Unfortunately your city is experiencing an unexpected large-scale flooding, all roads are under 5-feet of water, and your vehicles are floating down the street.  In this scenario, your ability to access your bug-out hideout is null; this is the reason why you plan for everything.  If you did it right, you would not only have a good bug-out strategy but a very solid bug-in plan with the works.   

My wife and I identified multiple scenarios and have varied plans for numerous crises.  I have them all ranked out from Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, etc.  Plan A basically states that in the event that I am at work, my wife is at work, my son is at day care, and my daughter is at school (a typical work week for us) and the SHTF, my wife and I immediately bee-line it to our son’s daycare.  At the daycare we gather our son, transfer her bug-out bag, CB radio, and other equipment from her vehicle to my truck and we proceed to our daughter’s school.  Once we have picked up our daughter we continue to our house. Depending on the threat, we begin our bug-in or bug-out plan.  Example: let’s say the threat is a CAT 4 hurricane warning similar to the devastating Hurricane Ike in 2008.  Our FCP dictates we would enact our bug-out plan to the Appalachian Mountain region.  (In reality my family would not have been at work or daycare, in fact we would have already hit the road heading west, but for this scenario let’s say we waited until the last minute.)  Once we enter the house, my wife immediately starts packing our clothes, toiletries, snacks, and drinks with the help of our children to keep them occupied.  I immediately back my truck into my garage where we have all of our emergency supplies stored.  This is all of our tactical gear, light, fire-starting equipment, cooking equipment, water purification supplies, shelter, etc., secured in multiple 35 gallon Rubbermaid Cargo boxes.  We have multiple 24-gallon Rubbermaid Cargo boxes that contain over 5-months’ worth of food and water along with our rucksack containing all of our medial gear/supplies, stored in one of our guest rooms for proper heating/cooling.  Each container has an updated inventory list secured underneath each lid.  Part of my Family Continuity Plan has a diagram of my truck bed and roof rack with specific locations for every piece of our equipment.  I spent weeks on our truck bed/roof rack diagram determining the best location for each piece of equipment with the most critical and most useful supplies quickly accessible. These supplies consist of bug-out tools while on the road such as chainsaws, gas tanks, shovel, rope/chain, and a couple of bug-out backpacks to quickly grab in case we would need to evacuate the truck in a hurry.  It is guaranteed if you wait for the last minute to throw all of your gear into your vehicle you will forget something important such as your fire-safe chest containing all of your families’ passports, SSN cards, birth certificates, home and vehicle paperwork, and insurance information.  Or, worst case scenario, you will be wasting-away precious time trying to squeeze your gear into your vehicle while the entire city already bugged out, blocking your escape routes.  Come up with a load plan now, document it, study it, and then test it while there is ample time. 
Based on the level of the threat, a hurricane CAT 4 in this scenario, I would initiate turning off the power, gas, and water; after filling all three bathtubs in our home.  Once the threat subsided, we would attempt a return back to our residence.  If our main water line to the house was down, I would use the water in the bathtub for sanitation purposes.  Continuing with the scenario, my wife and I finalize the loading plan and head off to our destination, Roanoke, Virginia.  We have multiple plans as to which roads we will take to reach our destination.  One plan has us using a mix of major highways and state highways such as Highway 64 for a few hours and then cut over on Highway 60.  Another plan has us using mostly state highways and county highways such as Highway 58 and then up Highway 220.  It is important to plan multiple routes to any destination.  We have a large map for the State of Virginia, a topography map, maps of neighboring states and a couple of Rand McNally Atlases.  We have quite a few Google Maps with step-by-step directions (even on foot) to get us to our destination.  Once we get to our destination we are still not done. We have documented plans on where we will be staying, what our chores will be, and how we would rotate security if need be.  After 48 hours of reaching Roanoke our plan dictates that my three brother-in-laws and I (my family plan actually consists of more than just one family) will pack enough equipment and supplies to head back to Va. Beach and bunker down until it is safe enough for the rest of the party to return.

However, if the city of Roanoke began to collapse for whatever reason our FCP continues on with further plans and instructions to start our trek to Arizona.  Arizona was selected due to one, being west of the Mississippi (less population than the east coast) and two, because a large part of my family resides there. 

Our FCP provides step by step directions on which highways or roads we would use to get to the state of Arizona in a timely and secured fashion.  I have specific locations of towns and gasoline stops marked along the way that I would attempt to get to.  My wife and I fully realize, depending on what type of threat we are experiencing, that we would most likely run out of gas before reaching either Arkansas or Oklahoma.  We have documentation that tells us what supplies we would bring, which roads that lead or follow bodies of water, maps of railroads, and information on towns along the way.  Again, depending on the threat-level we may need to stay away from large cities and we may not be welcomed in very small towns so we plan for it.    

You can quickly begin to see how, in some cases, this can be a complicated and frustrating process.  With so many events that can happen, how can you, we, possibly respond to all of them?  The truth of the matter is, you can’t – it would be impossible.  Take things simple at first, start with the most plausible event and start your plan there.  We started all of our plans at the very moment when the SHTF.  Meaning, during a regular week I would be at work and so would my wife and our children would be at school and daycare.  From that specific moment, we branched out and brain stormed as many possibilities and jotted down solutions for each.  Once you have a plan, you can then build your supply-chain, gear, paperwork and the entire infrastructure.  I started off by providing only one, modified, scenario in my FCP above but we actually have quite a few.  Some of our plans are procedures during the weekend when my family is mostly together. On the few occasions I have gone on a business trip, or my wife, we have a plan for that as well.  Of course, factors depend on where our trip takes us and how we got there (plane vs. rental vehicle).  The important thing is you are communicating your FCP to your partner/family and documenting your plan.  Use your experience to determine some possible scenarios, use the advice from friends and families as a source of information.  Research online and review the news to see how people react during a time of crisis.  Take the tragic events you read online and incorporate those scenarios into your Family Continuity Plan.  As you become more aware, your plan starts to mature, you will add more information, add more plans, and you will alter situations due to your family getting larger or kids growing up.  Once your plan is on paper, test it, and periodically maintain it. 

If you are not sure if your plan works, give it a shot.  Turn off the power and water to your house (we have in the past but we kept the gas on so we wouldn’t have to call a tech from VA Natural Gas) during a weekend and see how your family reacts.  On a weekend, take a slow trip to your bug-out hideout stopping along the way to admire the sites between your home and bug-out site.  You never know – you may be camping at those sites when the SHTF and your bugging out to your FCP site on foot.  Take your family out to as many camping trips as you can. Learn and teach them how to build basic shelter, learn basic fire-making processes, learn to cook with basic tools, and teach the proper handling and safety of your defensive gear.  Build a garden box in your backyard and learn how to grow fruits and vegetables – let your kids be part of this.  Take simple trips out of town and learn what types of equipment, entertainment, and clothing your family needs for the haul and incorporate/adjust your plan as needed.  Your prep plan may rely heavily on a generator when the power goes out, kill the power to your house and run off of it for three days straight and see how the generator really operates.  Remember, testing your Family Continuity Plan is equally important as the plan itself and maintaining your FCP will be just as important. Before the dust collects on your plan take it out every few months and clean it up.  Periodic maintenance on your FCP will ensure it is up to date with your most current supplies, new tools, new vehicles, new members, loss of a member, or even new skills that your family has acquired.  As your children get older, their ability to share the load becomes greater, don’t forget to incorporate those changes. 

In conclusion, ultimately it’s not a matter of “if” a SHTF event will happen but a matter of “when”. Develop a Family Continuity Plan. Teamwork, attention to details, and having a strong psychology to survive are everyday components which should be carried over during a time of crisis.  Teamwork – your chances to live are greatly increased when you add multiple families and at a larger scale.  A community unites when there is a common interest to take care of their families and yours.  If you are a loner and plan to be a loner in the wilderness, your chances of survival are greatly reduced.  Realize that most small bands of families or even communities will hesitate in trusting you or taking you in.  Attention to details – paying attention to detail involves trusting your eyes, ears, taste, and that nagging feeling in the back of your head.  It is the skill of combining all of your senses with common sense in making a decision.  Psychology to survive – I once read a great manual (U.S. Army Field Manual, FM 3-05.70) that states that no matter how much water, food, shelter, or security you have – if you lack the psychology to survive, you will die.  This bleeds into having a positive outlook in everything no matter the cost.  There will be times you will feel sadness, anger, and remorse, but your core needs to be imbued with positive thinking.

I hope sharing my Family Continuity Plan ignites your interest to think, develop and enact a plan for yours. Preparing and planning for the future is always wise.  However, don’t get too caught up with the future and with events we have no control over.  I know people who spend so much of their time and energy storing ammo and beef jerky but forget to live for the day.  We can make ourselves better by being prepared, but don’t let it take you away from reality.  The important thing is that you spend time with your family and friends. A great husband, wife, mom, dad, brother, sister, kids, friends do not come written in a book or COOP plan, they come from living life and doing the right thing.



Six Letters Re: Hurricane Sandy After Action Reports

James,
I’m located in central New Jersey not far from the Delaware River. In the days prior to the hurricane hitting, everyone packed the supermarkets, warehouse clubs and home improvement stores to stock up.

At the home improvement stores, the people who had best luck getting generators were those who purchased them online and selected in-store pickup. There were lines of people 100+ deep from the front of the store to the back waiting for new shipments of generators to arrive. The only people who were guaranteed anything were those who had already purchased and paid online.

For those lucky enough to get a generator, they’d have a hard time fueling it if they didn’t already have gas cans and gas stored at home. The shelves were cleared of gas cans days before the storm hit.

The warehouse club that we are members of sold out of water the day before the storm hit. They normally have pallets of water on shelves up to the ceiling along the length of an entire aisle. That aisle was completely bare. They also sold out of most fruits/and vegetables that could store for a little without power. The displays that normally hold bananas and apples were bare.

Flashlights and D batteries were gone days before the storm too. The only ones that were left were plug-in rechargeable flashlights that would be of little use after the first discharge in a power outage.

My sister had luck finding a huge display of batteries at a big chain baby store. Most people went straight to the supermarkets and home improvement stores, not thinking that many other types of stores also kept basic supplies.

The winds really started to pick up Monday afternoon. There wasn’t much rain, even at the height of the storm, but the winds were very strong. Our house, which is only 4 years old, shuddered a couple of times in the highest gusts. We didn’t sustain any physical damage to the house, but a couple of small trees tilted over but didn’t uproot or break. Some sections of vinyl fencing in our neighborhood blew out and shattered from the force of the wind.

Sections of our neighborhood started to lose power around 6 PM not long after the hurricane made landfall. Street lights were out and the power to houses across the street were out. From our upstairs windows, we watched the sky glow blue and pink in all directions as transformers blew. Every minute or so another one would blow.

Finally, around 8:30 PM, we watched a transformer light the sky up for about 30 seconds. When it finally darkened, we and the rest of our neighborhood were out of power.

I had filled our spare refrigerator in our garage with cases of water and the spare freezer with bags of ice. I also took every empty plastic jug and bottle out of our recycling bins and filled them 3/4 of the way with water and froze them in our main/spare freezers. Every inch of freezer space that wasn’t packed with food was packed with an ice bottle.

I knew our refrigerator wouldn’t keep food cold long, so we immediately transferred our most critical food (milk for the kids, etc.) into ice filled coolers. The main freezer with most of our frozen food and frozen water bottles was never opened. It stayed perfectly cold until the power came back on, and most of the ice bottles had barely started to thaw. The food in our ice-filled coolers also was fine. We did sacrifice non-critical food that we didn’t have space for in the coolers to the garbage bin.

We lit the house with long-lasting led lanterns that definitely did the trick. We hunkered around an old battery power radio to keep up with storm news, and gave our two-year old son a spare lantern to play with, which kept him happy. With no power and little news expected until morning, we turned in early (for us) at around 10 PM.

Our furnace was out and we don’t have a fireplace, so the temperature dropped to the low 60s in our house overnight. It was a little chilly, but we were comfortable enough. We were definitely lucky it wasn’t colder outside.

By the morning the storm had passed and a family that we are very close friends with down the street had their generator running. We and several of our friends congregated there for the day. They had enough power for their refrigerator, several lights, a tv and cable box, and a power strip for charging phones.

Although the power was out, the cable stayed on until around noon so we were able to see the first images of storm damage. After the cable went out, most of us switched to our web-enabled smartphones and social media to stay informed and reach out to friends.

We grilled outside for lunch and dinner, with everyone pitching in food that would go bad if unused. Everyone with spare gas stored was prepared to pitch in whatever they had until the power came back on to keep the generator running. We brought over 10 gallons that wasn’t needed.

Cell phone service was spotty. People who were subscribers of one the two major cell providers in our area had no problem making/receiving calls and surfing the web. Subscribers of the other major service had a signal, but couldn’t make calls and their data service only worked intermittently.

The day after the storm, most traffic lights remained out. All gas stations and most stores were closed. One home improvement store opened under emergency power. They only let a limited number of people into the front part of the store where they had set up displays with their remaining emergency supplies (flashlights, batteries, power cords, and a new supply of gas cans). They surprisingly even accepted credit cards. Some other stores we checked out only accepted cash if they were open at all.

24 hours after the power went out, it came back on for most of our neighborhood. We’re definitely lucky since of the 2/3 of our state that was without power, only about 15-20% of homes had been restored when we were reconnected.

It was an interesting experience for a day, but something that none of us would have been happy to have continue. We all realized, individually and as a group, what things we were missing that could have made us more comfortable.

Although we were lucky that our part of the state suffered little more than downed trees and power lines, New Jersey is very small so we all have friends in the hardest hit parts of the Jersey Shore and we are very familiar with the popular vacation spots that have been destroyed.

I’ve been in contact with friends who live just blocks from the beach who have raised homes and still have standing water lapping at their front doors. A few other friends live in beach neighborhoods that have essentially become islands with bridges, highways and other access roads out of service and surrounded by water. Others left some of the very hardest hit communities before the storm hit and don’t know if their homes are still standing.

Some neighborhoods devastated by storm surge and flooding are now burning. Along some of the barrier islands, emergency services from the mainland are cut off and fires will likely be left to burn themselves out. Some entire towns are expected to burn.

There are a lot of people who have lost everything and many who are still in harm’s way. Keep them in your prayers. Thanks, – Brad S.

 

James,
I have family from Pennsylvania to Maine.  I tried to encourage my family and cousins who I knew would be affected by Sandy to visit me in the mountains of New England, but they were all so sure that they could survive the storm. 
 
Only one family had a generator.  It wasn’t wired into the house, so plenty of extension cords are in use there.  The others had nothing at all setup.  So I briefed them on filling the tub, freezing extra containers for ice, etc.  And all were briefed on staying put during and after the storm.
 
Of course, some don’t listen so well.  While all survived in some fashion, here is the latest and worse from my cousin on Long Island:

“Pumping out water all day.
We had absolutely not a drop of [drinking] water. Storm surge at 830 p.m. and we were seeing it force its way in at the rate of a foot a minute!! I have never witnessed anything like that in my life!
Scary stuff!!!

We tried to hold it back just no way hydraulic pressure was just too much.
Total 10 feet of water. We jumped ship when it got to 6 feet. Then couldn’t get to [deleted for OPSEC]’s house… Every path home and on every road trees were down, we didn’t plan for that. We slept at a friend’s aunt’s house. She welcomed us (dog and all) with open arms and we are total strangers. The walls all cracked assuming will be a total loss.

We are going to call it quits soon will be back at it again tomorrow. No [phone] service so can’t call our insurance company. Friends are coming from all over to help. No big deal–It is just a material asset. Insurance hopefully covers hurricanes. We are fortunate, as it could’ve been much worse.”

He was right.  They were fortunate.  They could have drowned leaving during the night.  They could have been injured trying to leave that location to their ‘safe’ house.
 
I suspect that the next time they will evacuate in a timely fashion.  I doubt that they will ever disparage a prepared mindset again.
 
We can’t save folks from themselves.
 
I will head into New York and New Jersey when possible to reach them with support.  I expect to have to wait until after this coming Tuesday.
 
Thank you for your SurvivalBlog site! Regards, – Mike A.

Good Morning to You!
Our area of the East coast was spared the worst brunt of the storm.  Massive snowfalls to our west, and massive flooding to the east.  We were very fortunate.

We live on top of a hill, and by Monday morning, we had water filling our basement.  I went outside with middle son, and we found a deep hole filled with water next to the foundation of our house.  We dug a ditch from the edge of the hole far, far away from the edge of the hole and down the hill well past the fall line.  I would estimate we dug at least 30 feet of mud.  While I dug, my son took the shovels of dirt that I pulled out of the ground and put it back into the hole by the foundation.  Once we were finished, we moved the drainage pipe from the gutters so that it, too, fed into the ditch we had dug away from the house.  10 more inches of rain fell over the next 24 hours, but no more of it ran into our basement. 

I understand now what you mean when you say you need to be physically fit!  I’m a 40 something mother of three, and my 17 year old son and I put in a good two hours worth of physical work in the driving rain, diverting water away from the house.  Maybe insurance would have covered the damage if we hadn’t done the work, but I prefer the effort of digging a ditch in the rain to the effort of clearing a basement of water and carpets and furniture.  Best two hours worth of work I’ve ever done, and our house is still in one piece!
 
Besides the obvious water and wind damage around here, there is one thing that stuck out more and more:  The number of people killed by falling trees.  Tall trees close to the house really do need to be trimmed back so that damage is lessened if a tree or limb falls on a house.  One gentleman told the story of how he and his father had a conversation on Saturday about how they needed to trim or cut down the tree next to the house.  Then on Monday, his father was killed instantly when the tree fell on the house during high winds. 

Peace to you all. – B.L.W.

 

James,
The report from Delaware. With the exception of flood prone and some beach front areas we dodged the bullet.

It was an excellent exercise for our small family. The preparation for with this sort of an event turns on do you stay or leave. Different priorities for equipment supplies and staging following from each of those two choices. However what this storm brought home to us (since we have a shelter in place default ) is that within the shelter in place paradigm is,”suppose that tree falls on your house and you must leave in a hurry anyway’ sub-plan. Since for us in our location Sandy was forecast to be a wind event, this latter sub-plan rose up from the back burner rather forcefully.

Now, we had to pull out and check the go bags (not seen since last year’s windy scare) marshal water, food rations, range bags (did I restock those mags after the last week) , document case, comms and other take-with items by the door while preparing to deal with prolonged electrical outage (potentially weeks) therefore check generator, water reserves, fuel, etc etc.. 

I found that while our shelter in place preps and SOP were fairly well in hand, the “Yikes, we got-a-go now” end was pretty confused. Part of the reason for this is that we really need to have more duplicate gear stashed in the “Go now” configuration, and it was clear from this go round that we ain’t there yet. I also know as I write this that I have all sorts of essential items stowed carefully labeled clearly that I will want to toss in the vehicle, but it will take me days to think through the inventory. Not something to be doing as water is cascading through a rent in the building.

So I tell you to tell me, “build the list now while it is still fresh.”

One side note: We were “powerless” for only 8 hours, but as a result I am looking to replace my noisy old Generac (such a headache! The thing just roars. I must be getting old) with newer quieter Yamaha or Honda digital. While researching I found this very useful worksheet for calculating loads on the Yamaha web site.

Blessings… Pray for the folks in New York City, Connecticut and New Jersey…. They have a long way to come back. – Dollardog

 

JWR:
As per your request for info out of the New York City area: Having grown up in Florida, I kind of knew what to expect. Needless to say, I was well provisioned and my powder, so to speak, was high and dry and at the ready well in advance of Sandy’s final approach…

My wife and I rode out the storm in our “Brooklyn Bunker,” a fourth-floor apartment in a solid pre-war building. We spent a long night watching for the flashes of transformers exploding in the wind, and darkness encroaching as lights went out in the homes all around us. Luckily, the lights managed to stay on in our neighborhood, and we didn’t lose power once. After the storm passed, we emerged to discover no major damage, some trees down on cars and roofs, limited cell phone service, but that’s about it…

The same can’t be said for lower Manhattan and parts of Staten Island, though. The six-foot security fence around some rental property I own there came down, right into my truck. A violent storm surge turned most of the coastal communities on the island into what looks like a war zone, with the National Guard deployed to keep order. No working street lights, no stores open, no gas. People are attempting to drive into northern New Jersey to find gas stations that have power, with little luck. Con Edison now says power will be out to 60% of the island for more than a week. My tenants are in the dark with no heat…

Looking across the East River into Lower Manhattan at night, I am reminded of my time as a journalist in New Orleans during Katrina, where I witnessed another entire American city abandoned, darkened, and brought to its knees by Mother Nature (combined with a healthy dose of human stupidity). The entire subway system here is paralyzed, and along with it commerce, and most of the city’s inhabitants. There are already some rumblings on blogs and other social media platforms about the “lack of government response,” like this one here, but for the most part, people have remained unusually calm and accommodating to each other, at least for New Yorkers.

As with Katrina, Sandy reminded me of just how fragile the veneer of civilization that most most city-dwellers often take for granted truly is. During the final 24 hours leading up to Sandy’s arrival, lines at every major grocery store in Brooklyn and Manhattan were several blocks long, with hours-long wait times just to enter the stores and clerks taking small groups of people in to shop, just a few at a time.

Given the mentality of the average city-dweller, the run on grocery stores was to be expected. Perhaps more importantly for the SurvivalBlog readership at large, what’s transpired here over the past 48 hours is nothing short of an amazing exercise in the efficacy of state control circa 2012 (much better execution than what I witnessed during Katrina). I am at once somewhat pleasantly surprised yet shockingly dismayed by just how quickly the authorities were able to shut down and subdue the country’s biggest metropolis. Within a few hours, they were able to – successfully – deploy several thousand National Guard troops, shut down the country’s biggest subway system, 15 major bridges and tunnels, three major airports, and cut power to eight square miles of a world-class city…all with nary a whimper nor major objection from the populace.

New Yorkers in three major boroughs were – and in the case of Lower Manhattan, still are – effectively cut off from the outside world. Moving forward, most SurvivalBlog readers like myself who either choose or are forced to reside in cities should perhaps (re)consider their long term plans and preparations given the recent tactics on display here in NYC.

Thanks and best, – KTC in NYC

 

Dear Jim:
Sheeple no more here. Sandy came and went. Our area is Bucks County about an hour north of Philadelphia. We border the Delaware River. Power here went out early and and only came on today.

I think we weathered it well. I was one of the last minute “run to the store” folks. Bought a gallon of milk. Everything else was in place. As soon as the power went out, I fired up our generator and hunkered down for the 70 MPH winds.

We did lose a couple of shingles and some aluminum trim on the house. Those unprepared suffered flooded basements, many areas will not have power for a week or more. Lots of trees down, snapped telephone poles, sink holes in the road. The emergency services were running 24 hours for two days. Constant sirens all over the place.

Where did I come up short? I never got around to getting my ham radio license or programming my Baofeng UV-5R. It would have come in handy to keep in touch with the others in my group. I have some Uniden walkies and they proved worthless.

At the end of the storm my wife she thanked me for being prepared. Up until this happened she kind of went alone with my “hobby”. Always a little smile on her face. It’s different now.

What I need to do:

  • Get my ham license.
  • Run a dedicated electrical line to the crucial items in the house. Pumps, freezer, frig, security lights.
  • Replace my burned out chainsaw.
  • Read “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It” for the 12th time and update my (your) lists of lists.

Take care and God Bless, – M.



Letter Re: Keeping Cell Phones Operational During Disasters

James:
The article you linked to on “Nine ways to make your cell phone last the whole storm even if the power goes out” was interesting but missed a couple of key points:

If you’re going to charge the phone from your laptop, only leave your laptop on as long as needed to charge the phone to about 80%, then shut it down again. Cell phone charging slows down as the battery gets closer to full, and it’s very inefficient to run the laptop while the phone is only gaining a small amount of charge.

Test to see if you can charge your phone while your laptop is “asleep”. Some laptops allow this, a side effect of a feature that allows USB devices to wake up the laptop.

Turn off all data services, which is pretty easy on advanced phones. If data services are off, there’s no need to worry about turning off push notifications.

Also turn off 2.5G (sometimes shown as GPRS), 2.75G (EDGE), 3G (UMTS, HSPA, etc.). None of these features are needed for basic phone calls and text messaging. Regards, – P.N.G.



Economics and Investing:

G.G. sent: One More Thing to Worry About: Underfunded Public Pensions

A provocative video “what if?”: The First 12 Hours of a US Dollar Collapse. (While their premise is sound, I must alert readers about a warning from Peter Schiff about the NIA.)

B.B. mentioned: Euro-Zone Unemployment Strikes Record

European Commission Single Supervisory Mechanism

Items from The Economatrix:

As Earnings Falter, Prospects For Q4 Grow Worse

High-Level JPMorgan Executives Suddenly Dumping JPMorgan Stock En Masse

Forget The Election And Get Ready For Another Year Of Slow Growth

Economy In US Grows At 2%, More Than Forecast

Spain’s Unemployment Reaches Record 25% as Bailout Looms



Odds ‘n Sods:

Andre D. mentioned that the Alone in The Wild documentary is now available on YouTube.

   o o o

Two bits of follow-up news on the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy: Tempers Flare in N.J. City Where Thousands Stranded. (People out of food after just two days of isolation? (I told you so…) And yes, there is looting: Jersey City on total lockdown from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. after rash of store break-ins, officials say. (Note that the mayor of Jersey City is Jerramiah Healy, one of Mayor Bloomberg’s Cabal of Illegal Mayors.)

   o o o

A reminder that I will be lecturing at the Get Prepared Expo (via teleseminar) on Saturday, November 3rd, 2012. There will be 100 Exhibits and 70 Seminars. You can save 20% by buying your admission passes in advance at GetPreparedEXPO.com ($8 for a one-day pass, or $15 for a weekend pass.) The expo will be held November 3 and 4, 2012 at the Ozark Empire Fairgrounds in Springfield, Missouri.

   o o o

Don in Oregon and J.B.G. both sent this: Open carry became legal today (October 1, 2012) in Oklahoma, but only for holders of concealed carry permits. Don in Oregon notes” “Too bad the writer knows so little about firearms, though: ‘Customers with small handguns that are easy to conceal have been buying larger weapons, with longer barrels that hold additional rounds, as they prepare to wear their guns unconcealed.'” [JWR Adds: I’m hoping that was just a poorly-worded sentence, or perhaps the reporter somehow visualized handguns as all tubular magazine fed, like a Mare’s Leg. ]

   o o o

Bob G. sent this: 21 DIY Emergency Preparedness Hacks



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“You want to talk about a situation that gets old very quickly. You are sitting in a house with no power and you can’t open the refrigerator” – New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, October 30, 2012



Notes from JWR:

I’ve had several questions from readers about the recently re-released Rawles Gets You Ready Preparedness Course. To clarify: The course has not been changed, other than the delivery method. (It is now sold only via digital download.) The great news is that since there are longer any printing and mailing costs, it is now available for just a small fraction of what the hard copy binder edition sold for.

Today we present another entry for Round 43 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, E.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 43 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

But first, an update on Hurricane Sandy:



Real Wrath of God Stuff: Hurricane Sandy’s Triple Whammy

I’m sure that most SurvivalBlog readers–except those who are without power–have by now seen the amazing photos and videos of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, aka “Frankenstorm.” All of these many images serve as stark reminders that it is the responsibility of individual families to prepare. Government agencies are incapable of providing assistance in a widespread disaster. (In radio interviews. I’m fond of saying that FEMA should more accurately thought of as an acronym for: “Foolishly Expecting Meaningful Aid.”)

The hurricane brought with it a triple whammy: high winds, flooding, and power outages. The power outages–which extend 1,000 miles from North Carolina to Maine–are expected to last as long as 10 days in parts of New York City and perhaps three weeks in parts of West Virginia. More than eight million people were without power, at last report. Even the New York Stock Exchange closed because of weather, for the first such closure in 27 years. There is rain throughout the eastern seaboard, and even some snow generated by the hurricane.

The only impact on my life thusfar is having to reschedule a consulting phone call for a gent in North Carolina who had his local cell phone tower blow down. But I’m sure that a lot of you have some very interesting stories to tell. In coming days, I’m hoping to post some of your observations and valuable lessons learned. Please e-mail us your observations. Thanks!



What if TEOTWAWKI Arrives as a Slow Gradual Boil?, by LongJim

Sure we’ve watched  the  new television series Revolution, with their heroine and her post-SHTF world amazingly perfectly coifed hair-do. The series based loosely on an end of the world  scenario built around a “Sudden” abrupt change” a la the Dies the Fire novel series [by S.M. Stirling]. All power suddenly goes poof, and nothing electrical works, society collapses, and we’re all back to the age of bow and arrow, knives, and, weirdly deviating from the Dies The Fire premise, good old black powder front-stuffing rifles. Militias, which are all always portrayed by Hollywood, as evil, dictatorial, and brutally repressive, run the country, which has broken down into “serfdoms” in a giant feudal system.

On the other hand, there’s the somewhat realistic TEOTWAWKI scenarios that revolve around, pick one: A comet, asteroid or other huge space body smashing into the earth, an EMP or thermonuclear exchange, explosively fast spreading viral pandemic, or some mysterious alien military force attacking the planet, or the simple world economic currency meltdown.

These all propose, and assume, a sudden, rapid world-wide calamity rendering large cities places of mob rule, fire-ravaged, food-looted wastelands of desolation, forcing us who’ve prepared ourselves and our homes, into hunkering down to await hordes of refugees ascending upon our rural retreats like a Biblical plaque of  locusts. The local law enforcement authorities, and maybe the federal military and Homeland Security goons absent, or forcing us to live under an imposed  version “Martial Law”.

What if the end of the world as we know it, arrives like the proverbial frog getting slowly boil to death in a pot of water-scenario?  What if we see the currency, over a period of weeks, months, or even years, slowly erode, inflate, deflate, or simply disappear, and be replaced once, twice, or three or more times, with other currencies, like in post-WWI Weimar Germany?

What if, God help us, Obama gets re-elected, maybe by hook, or by crook, and our Constitutional rights are taken away one by one, or all at once. Cities, counties, and/or individual states can’t maintain their basic road, public work, water, electricity ,or other technology that powers our infrastructure. Things stop working, break down, employees quit because they don’t get paychecks anymore, or their paydays shrink, and they all decide, one by one, to go home, plant a garden, fish or otherwise feed themselves and their families by themselves.

What if, and just maybe, things take a slow spiral regardless of the scenario, down into an abyss of one of the afore-mentioned scenarios, and not an abrupt calendar-marks-the-day event?

I believe that we can carefully observe just what is happening in the EU countries, and draw information, knowledge, and even hope from what those countries are going through right now, to guide our preparations on an adjustable basis.

We need to scour news sources for Intel, and plan for contingencies here in America, as they inevitably follow, in some ways closely, in some ways not very similarly, what is occurring in Greece, Spain, Italy and the Irish Republic.

I see in the United States, a pattern of behavior, brought, and almost bred into our culture some differences that set ourselves apart  from what may occur in Europe and other second and third world countries. However better organized, culturally superior, or due to the same spirit (2)
that allowed America to gear up, build up, and suit up, and win WWII, we stand a way better chance of applying knowledge from observing the inevitable mistakes, or tragic errors the EU governments make to keep our country from the same fate.

Say for instance, Romney gets elected President, the economy stops the slide down hill, some manufacturing coughs to a slow forward push, the dollar is stabilized by reverting partially, or by a full reversion, to the gold standard, and American finds some small reserve of braking power in our countries slide towards that economic “cliff.“

Further speculation might be that the economy continues plodding along, joblessness slows,
gas and food prices fluctuate, but still continue to plummet. States and municipalities see a worsening of their infrastructures, and power supplies fluctuate, becoming more and more unreliable. Some folks see the water quality of public utilities eroding, and many drill wells on their property and yards. Chickens and goats start becoming the standard homesteads’ yard fixtures. Maybe, we all start turning our yards into gardens, relying less and less on the supermarkets and grocery stores. The dollar continues to lose its value, and barter, and hard currency, silver, and to some extent gold, become the mode of payment.

We all stop the annual huge Christmas gift buying sprees, and even birthdays and anniversary gift-giving becomes a thing of the past. The police departments, and sheriffs offices responses become sporadic, and people start going “heeled”, and taking a more pro-active vigilant look at their neighborhoods safety. Gangs do become an issue, and Homeland Security does man checkpoints across the country, maybe to quell the movements of these organizations, and we like that.

My point is, that given the observable course, and actions that the citizens of Greece are taking, sans the rioting, we might just  find the end to morph into that scenario. Speaking of civil unrest, aside from some nasty potentialities in most of our urban cities, I don’t think that Americans will tolerate, or allow the kind of rampant rioting and disorder one saw in Greece. That’s just not how our culture acts as a whole. We’re not the kinds of folks one see’s in footage in the middle-east, after an IED or car bomb goes off. There we see hordes of wide-eyed screaming people jumping atop the car parts, and running crazily through the crimes scenes willy-nilly.

I still see folks in the post office, standing well back of the counters, observing an imaginary line painted on the floor, not wanting to appear rude to the folks ahead of them buying stamps. I see our local volunteer fire departments organizing CERT teams and training like crazy across the country, planning to help in the event of an unforeseen natural, or whatever, type of emergency.

I read, and pour over news accounts every day dealing with the European monetary, and banking crisis, and I haven’t seen yet, the total  rapid TEOTWAWKI slide into cannibalistic, zombie over-run catastrophe that we’ve all read about being a surety.

I firmly believe that we can take a measure, however small, and optimistic, of comfort from watching the EU meltdown, and steering our plans accordingly. Call me a skeptical optimist, but I am garnering a bit of hope from observing what the common citizenry are doing in those countries, where the cliff edge has zipped by, and are dealing with the food, fuel, and other shortages.

I would like to see the readers of SurvivalBlog in the EU countries affected, start posting their own personal accounts so we can plan our own strategies her in the United States. I hope that measures can be taken by folks here, who read this blog, to keep the information highway from those regions flowing.

Clearly, even though we might all agree that the pessimistic timeline of End Time prophecy is probably correct as it relates to the economy, that Gods’ providential working in our countries affairs can spread out the inevitable end-time scenario into many more months, and maybe years.

Hopefully we all can read, research, and gather information from news sources, friends and family living abroad, in order to more effectively prepare for hard times, and even the worst-case scenario of  TEOTWAWKI.

I believe that our Heavenly father has, and is providing a way through the Internet, and it’s sources, of sparing us some measure of downright hopelessness, and giving us tools to both save our friends, family and ultimately our nation, from Satan’s’ evil plans. This provision is the ability we have of watching Europe, and making better plans for our families safety.



Economics and Investing:

H.L. sent this bit of news from England that illustrates the Green crowd’s disconnect from reality: Street lights turned off in their thousands to meet carbon emission targets–Huge swathes of Britain are being plunged into darkness as more and more streetlights are switched off by councils and roads authorities.

Economist Michael Pento Warns of Inevitable Financial Collapse: “The Real ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Is The Coming Currency And Bond Market Collapse.”

Where Should Gold Be Based On Inflation?

Items from The Economatrix:

The One Headwind That Could Stymie The US Economy Recovery

Schiff:  Think Gold’s Pricey?  Wait ‘Til It Hits $5,000

Will The Bottom Fall Out?  15 Signs That Layoffs And Job Losses Are Skyrocketing

James Turk:  The Entire German Gold Hoard Is Gone



Odds ‘n Sods:

J.B.G. suggested: Nine ways to make your cell phone last the whole storm even if the power goes out

   o o o

I will be the keynote speaker at the Get Prepared Expo (via teleseminar) on Saturday, November 3rd, 2012. This is an expanded repeat of a very popular event. There will be 100 Exhibits and 70 Seminars You can save 20% by buying your admission passes in advance at GetPreparedEXPO.com ($8 for a one-day pass, or $15 for a weekend pass.) The expo will be held November 3 and 4, 2012 at the Ozark Empire Fairgrounds in Springfield, Missouri.

   o o o

Michael Z. Williamson (SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large) suggested this piece at ARFCOM: The Unscientific [AR-15] Plastic Magazine Test Videos. (High bandwidth connection required.)

   o o o

John A. recommended a BBC series on restoring woodlands: ‘Tales from the Wild Wood’

   o o o

Kevin S. flagged this: Apple Maps lets users see all of Taiwan’s secret military installations



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“For thousands of years storing seeds has been an essential part of the survival preparations made by millions of prudent people fearing attack.  Seeds are hopes for future food and the defeat of famine, that lethal follower of disaster.  Among the most impressive sounds I ever heard were faint, distant, rattles of small stones heard on a quiet, black, freezing night in 1944.  An air raid was expected before dawn.  I was standing on one of the bare hills outside Kunming, China, trying to pinpoint the sources of lights that Japanese agents had used just before previous air raids to guide attacking planes to Kunming.  Puzzled by sounds of cautious digging at about 2:00 AM I asked my interpreter if he knew what was going on.  He told me that farmers walked most of the night to make sure that no one was following them, and were burying sealed jars of seeds in secret places, far enough from homes so that probably no one would hear them digging.  My interpreter did not need to tell me that if the advancing Japanese troops succeeded in taking Kunming they would ruthlessly strip the surrounding countryside of all food they could find. Then these prudent farmers would have seeds and hope in a starving land.” – Cresson H. Kearny, Nuclear War Survival Skills



Notes from JWR:

October 30, 1735 is believed to be the birthday of President John Adams. (Other sources cite his birth date as October 19th.) Adams died on July 4, 1826–just a few hours after the death of Thomas Jefferson. They both died on the 50th anniversary of publication of the Declaration of Independence.

A reminder that the Ready Made Resources sale on Mountain House long term storage foods ends soon. They are offering 25% discounts and free shipping for Mountain House foods in #10 cans. The sale ends on November 5th, so order soon.

I’m sure that I’ll start to get a plethora of Hurricane Sandy After Action Reports soon. But for today we present some more economic gloom and doom: another entry for Round 43 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, E.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 43 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Global Economic Collapse: Causes and Some Potential Outcomes, by C.D.W.T.

I believe the global economy stands on the brink of meltdown. The immediate trigger of this collapse is the European Debt Crisis, but the build up to this catastrophe has been building for years and decades.

Three of the major drivers of Global economic growth: the US, Europe, and mainland China , are all on the verge of economic slowdown, if not outright collapse. Usually, if one region of the globe is contracting other regions are growing and able to take up the economic ‘slack’. For the first time in modern history, all regions are slowing at once. This is uncharted economic territory.

I will look individually at how each region got into the economic malaise it is in and what some consequences may be.

EUROPE

Greece is the poster child for Europe’s economic  problems, but they are not alone. Europeans have lived beyond their financial means for decades and now the bill is coming due.

A immediate result will be Greece getting ejected from the Euro Currency group of nations– or they leave on their own. Greece will be plunged in economic chaos. I do not believe a Greek exit can be “managed” by the rest of the Euro Zone. A Greek exit will result in the eventual death of the Euro Currency and a return to national currencies. It will be a hot, ugly fall and  a very cold and bleak winter in Europe.

The death of the Euro Currency will plunge all of Europe into economic turmoil. This turmoil could possibly last for years as all the financial, legal, political and other questions regarding a break up get worked out. I believe the break up of the USSR gives some ideas about Europe’s future. I think that a return to military governments in some European countries that have undergone it in the past (Spain and Portugal) are possible.

About the only good news is that European defense spending is low. Unlike the 1930s , there is a slim possibility of open military conflict breaking out across Europe. However, when the BEST outcome is a low chance of nation-state warfare this shows what a mess Europe could become.

CHINA

China sits on the edge of a housing bubble that will make the US housing bubble of a few years ago seem tiny.

China has grown into a global economic power by becoming a factory to the world. When the US went into recession in 2008, China kept their factories humming by launching a stimulus program costing trillions of Yuan.

This stimulus led to massive government waste (think “bridges to nowhere” on a massive scale) Entire CITIES were built just to keep workers employed. All that spending  during those years  led to high rates of inflation across the board.

The one thing that keeps the Chinese communist leadership awake at night is the thought of the Chinese people standing up against them and questioning their authority (Tiananmen Square is a a perfect example of this). Domestic stability is the first, second , and third priorities of the communist leadership. High inflation can and does cause instability (look at 1920s Weimar Germany and modern Zimbabwe as examples) Add high inflation with a bursting housing bubble and it leads up to economic disaster on a epic scale.

This could get ugly because Communists (regardless of nationality) have never been shy about spilling the blood of any opponents who get in their way. The PRC leadership will do whatever it takes to stay on top and in charge. I believe that “whatever it takes” could include invasions of Russian Siberia and\or Taiwan-Republic of China. Citizens tend to overlook economic problems when their country is at war. If China were to engage in a invasion of Siberia, this could result in the potential loss of tens of millions of lives since the Russian Federation does not possess the conventional military means to stop a invasion (not enough well trained infantry with substandard equipment having to cover too large a land area). They would be forced to rely on nuclear weapons to stop Chinese aggression.

Look at the recent rise in nationalistic sentiment spurred by the central government over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands issue with Japan. I believe this is a better indicator of the true state of the mainland Chinese economy, regardless of whatever their ‘Official’ economic statistics say

UNITED STATES

The US economy still hasn’t fully recovered from the housing crisis that started in 2008. Like Europe, The US has lived beyond it’s financial means for decades. Government spending (at all levels) is out of control.

I believe that America’s future hangs in the balance. we will not know which path we will head down until the November 2012 election. I think that if President Obama wins a second term, America can forget about being the world’s sole superpower. It will mean political death to the Democratic Party to engage in any entitlement reform/cutbacks, so I believe that issue is off the table if the Democrats win on Election Day

Even if Mitt Romney is our next President, America’s economic future still has plenty of potholes ahead. Entitlement spending (Social Security & Medicare/Medicaid) are  consuming larger and larger amounts of all federal government spending with no end in sight. These entitlements need to be bought under control if America is to have  any chance in the future. Like Europe, America needs to have a cultural shift.The mentality of  dependency on the government to provide one with a certain standard of life needs to end. Every individual, and the individual alone, should determine a person’s economic success. It must not be the role of government to determine this.

Social Security was never intended (even at it’s inception) to be a American’s primary money source in retirement. It was viewed as ‘one leg of a retirement stool’ with the other ‘legs’ being a company pension and a individual’s personal savings/investments.  However, today, Social Security is the primary source of income during a person’s retirement.

The Social Security trust fund is heading towards collapse. This will mean many retirees will have a GREATLY diminished lifestyle going forward.

Like Europe, the time for easy painless solutions to these looming financial problems has come to a end. Either entitlement spending gets reformed or we all go off the fiscal cliff together.

The level of governmental spending needed to support the huge increase in the size of government over the last few years is also something that cannot continue at it’s present rate. Government faces the prospect of collapsing under the weight of spending needed to prop it up.

Consequences

Some of the consequences that will result from all of this will come in many forms. Here are some possibilities I see:

* Self-sufficiency will be a ever growing trend as people realize that government can’t afford to support them anymore. The Federal government needs to get out of a lot of things. For example, the Feds need to get out of financing home mortgages. The quasi-governmental agencies ‘Freddie Mac’ (FHLMC) and ‘Fannie Mae’ (FNMA) need to be wound down and killed. Their backstopping of sub-prime mortgages is the main reason for the housing crash of 2008. I work part time in a Real Estate office. I know that killing off these entities will destroy the housing market, but they have become bottomless money pits loaded with unrecoverable toxic assets  and I see no other choice.

* Brain drain and capital flight from weaker European nations to financially stronger ones. This is already happening as people pull their savings out of banks in Greece, Spain, Portugal and move it to German banks,

 Funds may even totally leave all European financial  institutions and go overseas to less risky parts of the globe. Right now, pretty much any Greek with the means to do so is packing up and moving out of Greece, Some Irish and Spanish are not far behind in doing the same.

 * An increase in desire for regional government and in nationalism. In the last couple months the Catalans are increasingly wanting to get away from Madrid. The Venetians don’t want to pay taxes to Rome anymore, and the Scots would rather answer to Edinburgh instead of London.

This can also be seen in a rise of nationalistic political parties, such as Golden Dawn and Syriza in Greece, the True Finns in Finland, Jobbik in Hungary, and Front National in France, among others. There is even a possibility of the military seizing control, maybe in Spain and Greece, which have both known military rule in modern times. It looks like the Swiss are preparing for some major economic and political pain across Europe.

* Here in the USA, government at all levels (federal, state, local) will have to be cut dramatically. Excessive and unaffordable public pension obligations at the state level are killing some states (California and my Illinois are prime examples). Going ahead, these states will only have two options: cut their public employees pensions, or cut other state spending to free up the pension money. This will involve pain either way, but the time for painless options went out the door a while ago. I think Marc Faber’s ideas on cutting government a minimum of 50% is a good idea (however, I would do it over months, not in three days!)

I also believe there will be a wave of municipal defaults. Several cities in California have already filed for  ‘Chapter 9’ bankruptcy protection. Filing for bankruptcy can lead to a variety of problems.

 There will be more of this across the nation.

The path ahead for the global economy is shaky. Decades of over promising and overspending has bought all of us to the edge of the precipice. The needed cuts and changes will be painful, possibly even leading to outbreaks of violence, and even war. However,  no changes in policy will lead to outright economic collapse. About the only certainty will be a decrease in lifestyle and a increase in hardship. Living could become a even greater  struggle for a lot of people globally.

I truly wish the economic picture wasn’t so bleak, but I see limited options ahead for  us. I can be reached at chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com if you wish to contact me. Thank You for your time.



Letter Re: DIY Drones on the Homestead

Dear Editor:
Although land, sea, and aerial [unmanned vehicles] are available, for the purpose of survival ‘hobbyist’ surveillance from an aerial vehicle is the best option.  A land or sea based homemade ‘drone’ would have to be large to navigate even moderate terrain or choppy water and the larger the vehicle is the more costly, dangerous and obvious it is.  Aerial ‘drones’ on the other hand can be much smaller and unobtrusive.   When we refer to drones, what we are really speaking of just a radio controlled vehicle with perhaps some fancy telemetry.   Aerial drones come in two basic flavors, fixed wing and multi-copter.   I have experience building both as well as automated lawnmowers and snowplows. 

Fixed wing

A fixed wing UAV is really a radio control airplane.  There are thousands of models available, from palm sized to nearly full scale.  Power can come from a battery or even a small scale jet turbine.  The best format for a drone would be an inexpensive expanded foam model.  These foams can withstand full speed impacts with the ground with really no damage other than a broken propeller (trust me I know).   Skillfully built and operated, the fixed wing drone could stay aloft for hours and several thousand feet up.  Operation is nearly silent when at altitude.

Multi-copter

A multi-copter is just a helicopter with more than one rotor.  A Chinook is an example of a full scale multi-copter.  Multi-copters come in several formats, having from 3 to 12 motors on arms extending from the center. Kits are commercially available, or a good multi-copter can be scratch built at home.  Design can be very robust if proper materials are selected.  The strongest units are made from carbon fiber or aluminum, with motors oriented for redundancy.   My multi-copter is about 4 feet across, weighs 6 pounds, and can lift a 4 pound payload.  These are very versatile.  I can follow a car, land on a roof, even fly to my front window and look inside the house.  Multi-copter electronics are much more expensive than their fixed wing counterparts.  Careful consideration must be paid to electronics protection.

Autopilots
 
This is a bit of a catch all term and can best be divided into stabilization and flight control.  For a fixed wing vehicle, stabilization can be done inexpensively with hobby gyros.  This will automatically correct the flight to straight and level after any deviation.  Flying is much more simple.  Flight control is added on top of stabilization.  Generally flight control is via GPS radios with waypoints programmed via a computer.   You end up with a radio controlled airplane that once launched will fly, to a point(s) and circle, take video, etc. and fly back.  Video feed is also possible, but even a cheap video camera will record nicely from the air.

For multi-copters stabilization is absolutely necessary.  Humans can not control anything this complex alone.  For a multi-copter  the stabilization essentially compiles  normal inputs, from a radio or flight controller,  along with gyro and accelerometer data from the vehicle.  The stabilization computer then calculates the desired speed for each motor.  Multi-copter stabilization is very effective.  I can literally shove my x8 multi-copter in flight and it simply autocorrects back to its original position and heading.    Multi-copter flight control is very similar to fixed wind control, via GPS waypoints, although ultrasonic range finders can be used indoors.   The stabilization in my multi-copter is capable of controlled flight in 25+ mph winds.
Please keep in mind that there are FAA and FCC rules governing radio control aircraft, drones and video downlink radios.

Uses
After months of tinkering, crashing and spending probably thousands of dollars, you will have a drone that will fly in a stable manner.  You will be able to control it with your radio and maybe you invested enough for a flight controller and video down link.  What do you do with this new toy?
Due to payload and range restrictions, an aerial drone is not suited for really anything other than surveillance/reconnaissance.  Honestly, in a survival scenario, my multi-copter in not even on the bug out list.  That is not to say that these things are useless to a prepper though.   I have video of my house and neighborhood.  I can easily fly above and look down undetected.  If I wanted to, I could peer into window on a high rise.  Whether bugging in, or at a retreat a bird’s eye view of your environment is very much a force multiplier, although I sometimes think a camera on a $10 kite with a long sting is an equivalent option. Regards, – Rockhound